Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Araris Valerian]

42 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I hate to break it to you... but Mist be dead.

I meant Mint, my bad.

[---]

49 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Have you now concluded that there is no actual pressure from poke votes and thus they are useless?

Thoughts: I'm still pretty happy to vote for most people. The vote manip last cycle makes me mildly more suspicious of Illwei. Seeing as there are already 3 votes on Pyro, I'll vote for Mist. I agree with Sart about the vote manip comments. I think in a V/E lynch that is close, if the elims have vote manip then they are likely to use it. Perhaps they would in a V/V lynch as well, but I'd say that's less likely. And the chances of a given random person having vote manip that they are able to use D1 to save themselves seems slim to me.

So...you're...voting on Mint...because you're suspicious...of me?

[Ashbringer]

(Continued analysis)

• Matrim - first post. Reads TJ weird, but feels like that's more TJ's style than his alignment. Seemed to think Mist didn't know the tale of Faleast the Kandra when Mist was the only one I claimed Kandra to in LG66 (). Has claimed to have a role.
• Striker - repeated what Lotus and I said about not revealing roles, which to me feels a little off.
• Pyro - voted on Striker for the above^, first vote, for "wanting to conceal information". I have yet to recieve a PM from Pyro, which is kinda interesting considering he PM'd TJ, but NAI. Called out TJ for rule-bending, came to a truce. Claims to be avoiding catching a disease (but has, now). Has claimed to have gained a new role. Worried about diseases progressing in a bad way. Thinks the suspicion on him from Illwei is only from QF.
• TJ - tried to get Illwei to tell him the official Village name, which was a little rule-bendy. Claims to have lost a role. Fairly certain an Elim made sure Mist would die
• Araris - one post, voting on me, so prepare for some bias. He wrote a summary post on what he thought of Silber's strategy, saying it would be too tedious to figure out and lets Elims find real scanners. He then voted on me for wondering why people shouldn't fake claim. Vote on Mint seems a little odd as well, although an Elim would probably pay more attention to Mint vs Mist. I'm not entirely sure on this, but I'm going to say Null due to bias from voting on me.
• Illwei - said in a reason for edit that they "don't want to post too many times," which could be noteworthy but is NAI. Editing posts immediately after posting is a little suspicious, but I tend to read Illwei as... what's a good word. Nervous? Panicked? "Flustered" is the word my brain wants to choose, but I don't think its right, and I still can't tell if it's supposed to mean anything. Claims to gut read Pyro and Mist as bad, claims unrelated to QF (but Mist was good). Claims to have saved self with vote manip. I'm reading Elim now. Not particularly strongly, but it's hard to read anyone strongly in D2 of a blackout.
• Lotus - page 3 Lotus posted an analysis post where she seemed to read everyone Null, or hedged her reads in some way. I doubt an Elim would do this, but I don't think Lotus has been an Elim yet, and I don't like it. Started contributing more in the 2nd half of D1 and D2
• Kasimir - doing Kasimir things . PM'd me (but not much game discussion). I'm not going to try and gut read based off my 2nd game. So Null.
• Devotary - Still did that last minute vote thing (and on me, no less!) but correctly corrected me and said it would be better for scanners to use PMs.
• Gears - seems to be struggling to post their usual analysis when there's so little to analyze. I'll cut them some slack for now, but I'll be watching.

 

Mild Elim: ... not anyone, really
Very Mild Elim: Striker, Illwei
Null: Pyro (for now), Lotus, Araris, Kasimir.
Very Mild Village: TJ, Matrim, Devotary

 

I think if there are roles that can erase other roles, it's fair to assume that roles can spread. And if they can't, Pyro's a liar anyway.

[Gears]

In an effort to gain information, I am going to ask some questions. @TJ Shade, you said you were cured of your disease, but did you use your power before that? If so, who did you target? What is your ability? @Matrim's Dice, have you acted? If so, who did you target? What is your ability? @Illwei, you used your vote manipulation to save yourself, but is that a "double anyone's vote" ability or just double your own vote? @Sart, how did you know you were roleblocked? Does this mean you used an action that you knew was roleblocked because it affected something publicly known or gave you information? @The Young Pyromancer, have you had the chance to use your action? If so, who did you target? What is your ability?

Answering these questions is optional, but I would appreciate the information. Also, if anyone who is not mentioned above has an ability that they would like to share, feel free. The more information, the better.

[Kasimir]

[OOC] I don't have time for a more involved post right now but can in a couple of hours. Several small things that stood out for me:

- Ash, on what basis did you claim to understand Pyro being quiet? 

- I'm going to come out and say that I contracted a disease this morning (er, start D2) and that I was told I know the complete rules pertaining to my disease. It doesn't exclude the idea of stages being separate diseases but I'd like to know why this theory gained traction. ( @Illwei, there you go.)

- I would like to request all people whp have publicly admitted to diseases (yes, you, TJ, Matrim, Illwei, Pyro, myself) declare, if you can, your targets. I understand the need for secrecy but I also think that if we know who targeted whom, we can begin to create a suspect pool for the Eliminator with the night kill. I'll start. I can confirm what Illwei said because I contracted his disease this morning and his descriptions all check out. I can't use this except during Day Cycles. Sart, you claimed to be roleblocked. Who did you target? 

-I'll change my vote when I next get on. 

Edit: exeunt, ninjaed by Gears

Edited August 7, 2020 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

I'm not too concerned about minimizing disease vectors. We've seen two diseases that have very minor, if any downsides. A kill that kills yourself is less than ideal, but not actively harmful. Removing diseases removes any restrictions, although it may remove powers as well. We've also had people claim an inability to PM as a side effect of their disease. That's annoying, but not all that bad. All told, I'm down with the sickness.

TJ said Silber removing his disease also took away his ability, and there's no reason that wouldn't be true since diseases give the power and the drawback.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I thought Ashyn fell to people with Surges getting puppeted by Odium. Or is was that what drove the original voidbringers out, then in Silence Divine something else happened?

Pyro raises a good point. We don't know what these diseases can do, and Silber's role existing (role erasure rather than roleblock) leaves me very very worried. Although he could be trying to generate discussion that doesn't revolve around him.

 

Claims to be avoiding catching a disease (but has, now). Has claimed to have gained a new role. Worried about diseases progressing in a bad way.

Ashyn's surface was destroyed by the proto-surgebinders, and they built the floating cities to survive. Silence Divine is thousands of years later, when they discover antibiotics that can cure the disease keeping the cities from falling out of the sky. Silber's ability would be an existential threat on Ashyn, but probably not so much in this game. It might mean diseases are more common than they otherwise would be, but I don't think that's incredibly harmful.

Pyro claimed a new action, but it might not be a disease. It would be odd for @The Young Pyromancer to speak about spreading disease as a hypothetical if he had a disease where he didn't at the beginning of the game. Apparently, Kas does have a new disease, so I guess there is spread.

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I would like to request all people whp have publicly admitted to diseases (yes, you, TJ, Matrim, Illwei, Pyro, myself) declare, if you can, your targets. I understand the need for secrecy but I also think that if we know who targeted whom, we can begin to create a suspect pool for the Eliminator with the night kill. I'll start. I can confirm what Illwei said because I contracted his disease this morning and his descriptions all check out.

Claim targets the turn after the actions are submitted? I'm not sure this will be incredibly helpful for narrowing the kill target since people with night actions are less likely to submit kills and people with day actions can use them and the elim kill in the same cycle. Is your/Illwei's ability an optional double vote, is that how it works?

[Straw]

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Pyro claimed a new action, but it might not be a disease. It would be odd for @The Young Pyromancer to speak about spreading disease as a hypothetical if he had a disease where he didn't at the beginning of the game. Apparently, Kas does have a new disease, so I guess there is spread.

Wait, Kas has a new disease? I completely missed that. Interesting.

[Araris Valerian]

57 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So...you're...voting on Mint...because you're suspicious...of me?

I’m think you and Mint are connected, or at least there is a stronger link between you two than two random players. Generally that’s an elim thing, since villagers tend to be rather paranoid, especially early on.

[Kasimir]

18 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Claim targets the turn after the actions are submitted? I'm not sure this will be incredibly helpful for narrowing the kill target since people with night actions are less likely to submit kills and people with day actions can use them and the elim kill in the same cycle. Is your/Illwei's ability an optional double vote, is that how it works?

[OOC] I did not say target pool. I said suspect pool. Why are you changing what I said? 

I maintain that even being able to circumstantially rule out one or two people from having been the Eliminator with the night kill could be helpful, especially if your ability use can be verified strongly or weakly in some way. Of course, weigh it against the issue of revealing for infosec reasons. I'm just saying if you can claim your target the Turn after, why not? I agree that people with night actions can't (why do you say less likely?) use the Elim kill. This is a direct corollary of the one action per Turn rule. It's listed in the rules. If you can verify a player's Night target, you can demonstrably prove they're not the Elim who used the Night Kill, even if they might be Evil too. 

Information builds up and lets us potentially catch people in lies. Why are you against this?

Also yes—it's optional and will burn up my Day action slot. I see no need to use mine right now but will declare if/when I do. Unless I say otherwise, please regard my votes as being single votes. 

13 minutes ago, Straw said:

Wait, Kas has a new disease? I completely missed that. Interesting.

Literally the post above Dev's, thanks

Edit: I think I need to make the point more strongly but I'm definitely for a voluntary, Turn after model. This is vulnerable to night kill interception of course. If people want to do it before the Turn, fine, but I don't want us to go to the extent of forcing people to declare on pain of the lynch. (Especially with Sart's role blocker on the loose.) Not saying you're saying that but I've been there before (esp. early SE) and it's unfun for everyone. It's unfun for people with abilities and threatens to lock regular players out of the discussion/game. I am not and would never advocate for this. 

What I do want is to circulate more information among the Village. I think it's an extra tool for use to facilitate lynch discussions and to build cases. 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Kasimir

[Mat]

39 minutes ago, Gears said:

In an effort to gain information, I am going to ask some questions. @TJ Shade, you said you were cured of your disease, but did you use your power before that? If so, who did you target? What is your ability? @Matrim's Dice, have you acted? If so, who did you target? What is your ability? @Illwei, you used your vote manipulation to save yourself, but is that a "double anyone's vote" ability or just double your own vote? @Sart, how did you know you were roleblocked? Does this mean you used an action that you knew was roleblocked because it affected something publicly known or gave you information? @The Young Pyromancer, have you had the chance to use your action? If so, who did you target? What is your ability?

Answering these questions is optional, but I would appreciate the information. Also, if anyone who is not mentioned above has an ability that they would like to share, feel free. The more information, the better.

I find it... very strange you are inquiring this. Why do you wish to know everyone's roles? This early in the game claiming abilities and actions won't benefit anyone but the elims. Maybe later, but now the more information we have on the roles, the more information the elims have as well in the early game, as well as who has what and which ones are more powerful. This makes me suspect you more than I did before.

---Now that I read Kas's post (which I hadn't when I wrote the above) it makes a bit more sense. I still don't like the idea of everyone claiming though. It feels like bait.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC] I did not say target pool. I said suspect pool. Why are you changing what I said? 

I maintain that even being able to circumstantially rule out one or two people from having been the Eliminator with the night kill could be helpful, especially if your ability use can be verified strongly or weakly in some way. Of course, weigh it against the issue of revealing for infosec reasons. I'm just saying if you can claim your target the Turn after, why not? I agree that people with night actions can't (why do you say less likely?) use the Elim kill. This is a direct corollary of the one action per Turn rule. It's listed in the rules. If you can verify a player's Night target, you can demonstrably prove they're not the Elim who used the Night Kill, even if they might be Evil too. 

Information builds up and lets us potentially catch people in lies. Why are you against this?

Also yes—it's optional and will burn up my Day action slot. I see no need to use mine right now but will declare if/when I do. Unless I say otherwise, please regard my votes as being single votes. 

I don't know why I said kill target. I did mean kill suspect pool.

Claim the turn after instead of XX:59:59 the turn of. Kind of risky and probably doesn't make a huge difference, but if say Silber had claimed TJ as a target too late for anyone to change their actions we would know that's why TJ lost his disease. Or anyone who claims to have targeted Sart is most likely a roleblocker. It should generally be worth it for people who have claimed diseases to announce their target the turn after at the latest.

People with night actions can use the elim kill if they choose not to use their alternative night action. It's unlikely the elims would do so if there's an alternative, but it's a possibility.

[Ashbringer]

38 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

- Ash, on what basis did you claim to understand Pyro being quiet? 

He’s been quiet in PMs, or so it seems (I haven’t gotten a PM from him yet besides... a group PM that Mist created).

He claims that’s because he wanted to avoid catching a disease from a PM vector. Since now we can see that disease roles do in fact spread, this seems like a valid possible concern. I have doubts as to whether or not diseases “progress” into worse forms, but unexpectedly getting a bad drawback could put someone in a sticky situation, especially since we know from TJ/Mat that some drawbacks are passive (and therefore unavoidable).

Seeing as Pyro both caught a disease and has been rather quiet in-thread as well, I wonder how far that excuse holds.

[Kasimir]

32 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I don't know why I said kill target. I did mean kill suspect pool.

Claim the turn after instead of XX:59:59 the turn of. Kind of risky and probably doesn't make a huge difference, but if say Silber had claimed TJ as a target too late for anyone to change their actions we would know that's why TJ lost his disease. Or anyone who claims to have targeted Sart is most likely a roleblocker. It should generally be worth it for people who have claimed diseases to announce their target the turn after at the latest.

People with night actions can use the elim kill if they choose not to use their alternative night action. It's unlikely the elims would do so if there's an alternative, but it's a possibility.

Fair, yes. I think we're generally on the same page. I was thinking more that if someone has used the Elim Kill, they clearly didn't use their night actions, whereas you were saying that if someone has night actions, they're less likely to Elim kill. I agree with that

@Matrim's Dice I like my opsec So I can't speak for Gears but from my perspective, I'm largely referring to people who have already claimed publicly anyway. In some cases, we do know the ability, or it can be verified. Even if we don't know the ability, if they get lynched or killed, we can then go back and make sense of things. But just to make it clear, I don't advocate say, scanners just claiming in thread. Or mass roleclaims. That's kayana and there's only one kayana here and that's me

@Ashbringer Fair enough. I think I'm just curious because it seemed to me to be a strange amount of info to know / assert as on D1. 

Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity — good catch on Pyro, though he is at least trying to imply that he caught a disease with the sentence about transmission after claiming he gained an action. 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Kasimir

[StrikerEZ]

What's this about Sart and a roleblocker? Is this just something I've forgotten about?

[+Lotus]

I'm starting to think we have a Ash-Mat-TJ team. I was working on my spreadsheets, and the thing is that they all seem to fairly trust each other. Plus, some of their interactions seem kind of odd...

Maybe I'm overanalyzing but their does seem to be something strange going on. I couldn't find any of TJ's analysis posts though, so the data's still incomplete.

So, actually, i did just  find one of TJ's posts and they seemed to trust Ash.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Lotus
Found one of TJ's analysis's

[Kasimir]

28 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

What's this about Sart and a roleblocker? Is this just something I've forgotten about?

Sart claimed to be role-blocked on N1. Here, have a look:

On 8/6/2020 at 0:04 PM, Sart said:

I didn't get a lick of sleep last night. Someone, I'm not sure who, kept waking me up with loud music. (OOC: I was roleblocked) Seriously, who does that? Now I'm even more cranky than usual, and that's not the worst of it. Son-Son-Son-Son-Whatever is dead, and we don't have any leads. I know he came up with a strategy for scanning players, so maybe the saboteurs thought that he was a scanner. He was certainly more talkative than he normally is. Or was, I guess. And it turns out Tara, that goody-two-shoes, wasn't actually a traitor. That's my bad. i hope it doesn't show up on my monthly report. Hell, I'll be lucky if I even see another monthly report. Right, okay, the only way out of this is through. We need some leads, and I'm suspicious of Mint for what she said last night.

Hmm. @Vapor, Pyro, Vapor. Who do you suspect? What are your thoughts?

[|TJ|]

Guys, I have final exams in 10 days. I won't be able to be as active as I was in previous games.

@Lotus, I gave a village read to Ash because I found his reply to Silber's proposal very valid. He said that if an elim dies and we have to analyse the scans he have it would be very confusing and delve into IKYK territory. He also told Elims might find it easier to find the scanner as they would continuously give out accurate results. Two very good points, which I doubt an elim would make. He has not done anything suspicious since then, so I maintain the village readon him. Here's the posts: 

On 8/3/2020 at 11:07 AM, Ashbringer said:

And as I said, fake-claiming roles leads to Elims suspecting who has roles with much greater accuracy. Especially since the Elim team ostensibly knows some roles already from having them within their own ranks.

And, Silber wanted us to all fake seeing players’ Alignments. While I see the possible benefit, as when a real scanner dies their “fake guesses” become much more dependable, it also becomes a storm of contradictions and accusations where people can’t tell a baseless/faked suspicion from a real one. Plus then we have the fun endeavor of dealing with a dead Elim’s “faked” alignment scanning, which delves into an IKYK black hole.

I'm heavily rethinking me earlier village read on Matrim:

On 8/4/2020 at 8:03 PM, TJ Shade said:

On 8/4/2020 at 7:20 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I have this as well- so to the 2 PMs I received last night, sorry  you're wasting your time, unfortunately, and it's probably a good idea to let that out so you don't think I'm ignoring ya'll. This tells us a few things, such as that roles/diseases repeat. It does make me wonder about the backgrounds that everyone seems to have- are mine and TJ's the same, because we have the same role/disease? Is that related at all? Do those repeat as well?

And for this I change my opinion on you. I'd imagine the elim mindset would be "Wait, will the village be suspicious that there are two people of the same disease, and suspect that both cannot be villagers, and hence deduce that I'm an elim?" It does lead to IKYK scenario, but I'm keeping an open mind and read you as village right now

I think my train of thought on that reasoning was wrong. An elim would also have equal motive to disease-claim after someone has already done it. They would think that the people who PMd them would find them suspicious and hence would want to claim. I recant my village read on Matrim.

On top of that, the symptoms I gave for my disease was absolutely false. I just made up something about "sealed lips and blocked ears" because I didn't want to reveal my exact disease in case the elims had one, and then they would know my actions. But Matrim did not find anything suspicious about my disease description, which makes me suspicious of him. 

I also did not agree on his reasoning on Ashbringer last cycle and Lotus this cycle. Singled out Ashbringer out of many players not doing analysis, possibly because he already had a vote on him? Matrim's Dice.

4 hours ago, Gears said:

In an effort to gain information, I am going to ask some questions. @TJ Shade, you said you were cured of your disease, but did you use your power before that? If so, who did you target? What is your ability? @Matrim's Dice, have you acted? If so, who did you target? What is your ability? @Illwei, you used your vote manipulation to save yourself, but is that a "double anyone's vote" ability or just double your own vote? @Sart, how did you know you were roleblocked? Does this mean you used an action that you knew was roleblocked because it affected something publicly known or gave you information? @The Young Pyromancer, have you had the chance to use your action? If so, who did you target? What is your ability?

Yes I did use my power before that, in N1. I was told that my power was used successfully and that I was cured of my disease, together at the beginning of D2. I'm ready to talk about my powers, but I'm a little apprehensive because Matrim claims to have the same. Even though I doubt him, on the odd chance that he's village, I do not want to out his disease since he does not seem to want to do it. Might do it anyway if many people think it's reasonable, but I'll ask anyway. @Matrim's Dice, is it okay if I reveal my erstwhile action?

Edited August 7, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Mat]

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

On top of that, the symptoms I gave for my disease was absolutely false. I just made up something about "sealed lips and blocked ears" because I didn't want to reveal my exact disease in case the elims had one, and then they would know my actions. But Matrim did not find anything suspicious about my disease description, which makes me suspicious of him. 

I don’t know if I believe this. It seems strange you would claim a disease you ‘made up’ when it’s not made up at all- it’s what I have. I didn’t find it suspicious because I just assumed we had the same disease. It makes me inherently more suspicious of you for saying this, and I’m sure people can confirm that you didn’t talk in PM’s for the entirety of the first cycle, now cured or not.

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Yes I did use my power before that, in N1. I was told that my power was used successfully and that I was cured of my disease, together at the beginning of D2. I'm ready to talk about my powers, but I'm a little apprehensive because Matrim claims to have the same. Even though I doubt him, on the odd chance that he's village, I do not want to out his disease since he does not seem to want to do it. Might do it anyway if many people think it's reasonable, but I'll ask anyway. @Matrim's Dice, is it okay if I reveal my erstwhile action?

If you are convinced they’re not the same, go for it. If you truly did make up the PM thing they probably wouldn’t be the same anyway, so it’s a bit weird you would accuse me of following your ‘fake’ disease description and then right after ask if you can claim your action because they might be the same. But, go for it.

[|TJ|]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t know if I believe this. It seems strange you would claim a disease you ‘made up’ when it’s not made up at all- it’s what I have. I didn’t find it suspicious because I just assumed we had the same disease. It makes me inherently more suspicious of you for saying this, and I’m sure people can confirm that you didn’t talk in PM’s for the entirety of the first cycle, now cured or not.

I didn't make up the disease *facepalm*. I made up the description of the disease. What part of this is so hard to understand? 

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

On top of that, the symptoms I gave for my disease was absolutely false. I just made up something about "sealed lips and blocked ears" because I didn't want to reveal my exact disease in case the elims had one, and then they would know my actions. But Matrim did not find anything suspicious about my disease description, which makes me suspicious of him. 

Again, I did have the penalty. I could not PM. Just the way I described the disease was false. 

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If you truly did make up the PM thing they probably wouldn’t be the same anyway, so it’s a bit weird you would accuse me of following your ‘fake’ disease description and then right after ask if you can claim your action because they might be the same. But, go for it.

Since I did not make up the PM thing, I'm actually convinced we have the same disease. You still want me to reveal it? 

[Kasimir]

[OOC] Urgh. So more work came in, and as usual, it's always urgent >> I'm going to state upfront that I still won't be able to do deep reading or analysis until at least tomorrow, if I gird my loins and just clear all the tasks at once. 

I will commit to at least giving a set of reads before the cycle (not Turn) ends. Preferably I will be back by the end of the Turn, but that's assuming certain tasks get done fast which might not be true. (I'll be happy to blue text if necessary.) Being the office Taln has its disadvantages

Thoughts so far:

-I've claimed many PAFOs from the GMs and have a number of findings. I'm going to need time to sit down and write them up in an organised way but I can at least say immediately that we have weak reason to believe that the stages theory is untrue. I'll get into it later on. 

-At this point, I'm waiting to see what develops between Mat and TJ. 

-What I can say is that Illwei, myself, and a third player (to be kept anonymous) have confirmed we have the same disease with the same description and ability. This leads me to think that it is unlikely that there is a mismatch, i.e. Balanced Abilities (diseases with an ability and penalty) should be unique to each particular descriptor in a 1:1 manner. 

- @Ashbringer, @Lahilt I'm interested in why you both had opposite reactions to Silber given it is common for players to immediately strategise for their role. Ash seemed to completely ignore this dimension [Note: I accept the stab vote rationale, but I'm pointing out that if a player does something that might indicate they are a Seeker, they have every reason to want to play peripherally all the more - dead Seekers are bad Seekers! ] , and Lahilt to be immediately interested in it. I am marginally more concerned about Lahilt because he asked about the basis for which Silber believed there to be an alignment scanner. I think a Eliminator has reason to be more interested in reasons to think an alignment scanner exists. Asking Silber about this when Silber posted early enough for any such reason to be unlikely to be any PM other than a GM PM makes me uneasy. [Note: I am aware orange is not for votes. I am using it to denote I am willing to place my second vote on Lahilt, just like a normal lynch vote.]

-My mild trust of Mint (for D1) was based off her deliberately referencing the GM PM debate early enough on D1 and claiming loyal intern. I checked in on whether her choice of words was deliberate and she confirmed it. Again, before the lynch. Now, we don't know the wording of the Elim win con (which could say to outnumber or kill all loyal interns) so I read it as a slightly credible roleclaim. I'm happy to revise my beliefs given better evidence as the cycle(s) progress but either way, the vote analysis debate reads like sophistry to me, on a gut level. Whether it's good or bad sophistry remains to be seen but I don't like joining people in sophistry mudpits. 

[Lahilt]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC] Urgh. So more work came in, and as usual, it's always urgent >> I'm going to state upfront that I still won't be able to do deep reading or analysis until at least tomorrow, if I gird my loins and just clear all the tasks at once. 

I will commit to at least giving a set of reads before the cycle (not Turn) ends. Preferably I will be back by the end of the Turn, but that's assuming certain tasks get done fast which might not be true. (I'll be happy to blue text if necessary.) Being the office Taln has its disadvantages

Thoughts so far:

-I've claimed many PAFOs from the GMs and have a number of findings. I'm going to need time to sit down and write them up in an organised way but I can at least say immediately that we have weak reason to believe that the stages theory is untrue. I'll get into it later on. 

-At this point, I'm waiting to see what develops between Mat and TJ. 

-What I can say is that Illwei, myself, and a third player (to be kept anonymous) have confirmed we have the same disease with the same description and ability. This leads me to think that it is unlikely that there is a mismatch, i.e. Balanced Abilities (diseases with an ability and penalty) should be unique to each particular descriptor in a 1:1 manner. 

- @Ashbringer, @Lahilt I'm interested in why you both had opposite reactions to Silber given it is common for players to immediately strategise for their role. Ash seemed to completely ignore this dimension [Note: I accept the stab vote rationale, but I'm pointing out that if a player does something that might indicate they are a Seeker, they have every reason to want to play peripherally all the more - dead Seekers are bad Seekers! ] , and Lahilt to be immediately interested in it. I am marginally more concerned about Lahilt because he asked about the basis for which Silber believed there to be an alignment scanner. I think a Eliminator has reason to be more interested in reasons to think an alignment scanner exists. Asking Silber about this when Silber posted early enough for any such reason to be unlikely to be any PM other than a GM PM makes me uneasy. [Note: I am aware orange is not for votes. I am using it to denote I am willing to place my second vote on Lahilt, just like a normal lynch vote.]

-My mild trust of Mint (for D1) was based off her deliberately referencing the GM PM debate early enough on D1 and claiming loyal intern. I checked in on whether her choice of words was deliberate and she confirmed it. Again, before the lynch. Now, we don't know the wording of the Elim win con (which could say to outnumber or kill all loyal interns) so I read it as a slightly credible roleclaim. I'm happy to revise my beliefs given better evidence as the cycle(s) progress but either way, the vote analysis debate reads like sophistry to me, on a gut level. Whether it's good or bad sophistry remains to be seen but I don't like joining people in sophistry mudpits. 

I considered it to be odd that Silber would propose a plan for rolescanners without a reason for it. Assuming that there be a seeker in the game might keep us from focusing on the real goal, so I wanted to know if Silber had a reason or was just trying to mislead us. 

 

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

I considered it to be odd that Silber would propose a plan for rolescanners without a reason for it. Assuming that there be a seeker in the game might keep us from focusing on the real goal, so I wanted to know if Silber had a reason or was just trying to mislead us. 

 

[OOC] Fair enough. Consider the vote retracted. @Sart, I know you know who role blocked you, or at least who claimed to. I want to know if we've been told the same name. You can PM me or it goes in thread, I don't particularly care. Use your own judgment on info hygiene. Sart 

[Mat]

48 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I didn't make up the disease *facepalm*. I made up the description of the disease. What part of this is so hard to understand? 

Again, I did have the penalty. I could not PM. Just the way I described the disease was false. 

Since I did not make up the PM thing, I'm actually convinced we have the same disease. You still want me to reveal it? 

Oh xD that does make more sense. When you said 'sealed lips and blocked ears' originally, I assumed you said that for flair when claiming, not to be actually quoting the symptom. I think we're on the same page now. 

I mean, it would probably help, and if it would help clear people then it's a good thing. And if we do have the same role, it'd be a good one, and then the elims wouldn't know which of us to NK because we both theoretically could be protected, and the elims wouldn't know which one. So I guess what I'm saying is, yeah, I guess you can say it. 

[+Lotus]

@TJ Shade You do make very good points. Your the one I’m less sure about, so I’m willing to go after Matrim

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

@TJ Shade You do make very good points. Your the one I’m less sure about, so I’m willing to go after Matrim

Points that are good, but we're currently in the process of figuring them out, I've already said I took his 'description claim' of the disease- the main point he made about me- as flair rather than a quote. We both misunderstood what each other said and it caused confusion.

That being said, this is adds to my suspicion of you. I clearly said before my rebuttal to his points, something you apparently missed, and this vote seems like an elim jumping on an easy and recent vote as an excuse to start a wagon. I don't think this incriminates TJ though, and elim is just as likely, if not more likely, to jump on a village vote over an elim vote.

And you said you're less sure about TJ, so you go after me? That doesn't make sense either.