Elbereth

QF46 (Cycle 5): In Which The GM Has Blisters

20 posts in this topic

I’m back from playing the harp for two hours and I have blisters

ow



Kasimir was Cultist-killed and was Korathi.
Matrim fell to the Korathi Inquisition and was Korathi.
Haelbarde fell to the Jeskeri Inquisition and was a Cultist.

Vote Count
Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Striker Matrim (3) - Sart, Elkanah, Illwei
Elkanah (2) - Kasimir, Devotary
Illwei (1) - Mist 

player list etc will be edited in when my grandparents aren’t insisting I come to lunch Right Now :P 

Oh and also re: posting notes and charts and stuff, that’s not technically an Official Rule (yet) but I as a mod would generally discourage doing so (I can explain why later if anyone wants) 

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Well it's been a few hours, and Matrim seemed to always be the first to post on a new day and break the ice, but he's gone, so I guess I'll say anything and hope more people talk here. Maybe more people will come when they get tagged though. Who knows.

Well the JPs seem to have found at least one Cultist, and two more Korathi were killed, so assuming Devotary's er, distribution? prediction is correct, we are now at
3/3/2/1 - K/JP/JC/KC, so if we don't talk, then, with their docs, the JP and Cultists have an advantage, I think.

Edited by Illwei
is that enough commas
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Kas's death is annoying, but expected here I think.

I'll look at his stuff once more now that we know 100% it was village.

Hael wasn't too surprising, though it is a sign that if the Jeskerai had any sort of non-aggression pact, it is gone at this point. I am worried about the numbers at this point though, as all three factions appear to have the same number of members.

Guess it's time to get working...

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Spoiler

Cycle 1 Votes:
Mint (5): Ash, Devotary, Gears, Matrim, Vapor
Ash (3): Elk, Mint, TJ
Pyro (3): Hael, Lotus, Striker
Elk (1): Drake
Matrim (1): Straw
Straw (1): Sart
Kas (1): Kas

Cycle 2 Votes:
Illwei (4): Ash, Drake, Gears, Matrim
Ash (4): Elk, Illwei, Pyro, Sart
Sart (3):
TJ, Vapor, Hael
Matrim (2): Bard, Kas

Cycle 3 Votes:
Vapor (4): Hael, Kas, Matrim, TJ
Striker (2): Devotary, Mist
Kas (2): Sart, Vapor
Hael (1): Drake

Cycle 4 Votes:
Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Striker
Matrim (3) - Sart, Elkanah, Illwei
Elkanah (2) - Kas, Devotary
Illwei (1) - Mist 

Honestly, I have no idea what's happening anymore. I think I'm just going to do a Contribution Crusade on Lord Silberfarben

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3 minutes ago, Sart said:
  Reveal hidden contents

Cycle 1 Votes:
Mint (5): Ash, Devotary, Gears, Matrim, Vapor
Ash (3): Elk, Mint, TJ
Pyro (3): Hael, Lotus, Striker
Elk (1): Drake
Matrim (1): Straw
Straw (1): Sart
Kas (1): Kas

Cycle 2 Votes:
Illwei (4): Ash, Drake, Gears, Matrim
Ash (4): Elk, Illwei, Pyro, Sart
Sart (3):
TJ, Vapor, Hael
Matrim (2): Bard, Kas

Cycle 3 Votes:
Vapor (4): Hael, Kas, Matrim, TJ
Striker (2): Devotary, Mist
Kas (2): Sart, Vapor
Hael (1): Drake

Cycle 4 Votes:
Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Striker
Matrim (3) - Sart, Elkanah, Illwei
Elkanah (2) - Kas, Devotary
Illwei (1) - Mist 

Honestly, I have no idea what's happening anymore. I think I'm just going to do a Contribution Crusade on Lord Silberfarben

U died. No talkies.

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1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

U died. No talkies.

Huh? Sart isn't dead?

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I thought they died and were disclosed as a cultist. Lemme check.

EDIT: @Sart sorry, you’re not dead. My bad.

Edited by The Young Pyromancer
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29 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I thought they died and were disclosed as a cultist. Lemme check.

EDIT: @Sart sorry, you’re not dead. My bad.

 

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That's a lot of vote trains led almost exclusively by confirmed Korathi. All the C2 Ash voters being alive seems suspicious for that reason. Hael being a Korathi makes Sart and Pyro more likely to be Korathi I think, since Hael wouldn't have wanted Jeskeri to die, which puts Elk and Illwei as higher Jeskeri suspects. Elkanah was a decent Practitioner suspect last time, so we'll go with that again.

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Just now, Illwei said:

I'd like to know what @StrikerEZ and @Young Bard think, as they just seem to have latched on to other peoples ideas every time they voted.

If by "every time they voted" you mean "that one time they supported a lynch on Mist last cycle", then yeah, fair enough. :P

I really don't like the last minute vote shenanigans going on this game - normally, I'd put it down to Elims trying to save their comrades, but it just seems to be everyone this game. But the fact that it's everyone means that it gives the Jeskeri more of a smokescreen.

Votecount as of 30 minutes before rollover last cycle:

Vote Count
Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Illwei
Matrim (2) - Sart, Elkanah
Elkanah (1) - Kasimir
Illwei (1) - Mist

Striker votes on Mist, cementing their lead as the lynch candidate to a point where I'd have considered the lynch effectively over in a normal game. But this isn't a normal game, and things are just getting started just getting started.

Vote Count
Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Illwei, Striker
Matrim (2) - Sart, Elkanah
Elkanah (1) - Kasimir
Illwei (1) - Mist

Devotary votes on Matrim at 5 minutes before rollover, and then swaps from Matrim to Elkanah at 4:59, pinging Matrim to try and follow suit - if Matrim had, it would have resulted in a draw between Mist and Elk. However, it's in the final minute of the game, so Devotary might have pinged Matrim knowing there wouldn't be time to react and change their vote.

Vote Count
Mist (4) - Matrim, Young Bard, Illwei, Striker
Matrim (2) - Sart, Elkanah
Elkanah (2) - Kasimir, Devotary
Illwei (1) - Mist

In the final minute, Illwei swaps their vote from Mist to Matrim, resulting in a tie, and Matrim getting lynched. (Though Illwei likely didn't see Devotary swap from Matrim to Elkanah, so would have expected Matrim to be in the lead, guaranteeing Mists survival.)

Final Vote Count
Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Striker
Matrim (3) - Sart, Elkanah, Illwei
Elkanah (2) - Kasimir, Devotary
Illwei (1) - Mist

Illwei found the possibility of the vote on Mist accruing over the course of the cycle suspicious. If that's the case, wonder how I felt at reading two different attempts to save Mist in favour of a different candidate in the final minute. :P

OK, there are a few possibilities here, depending on whether Mist's alignment.

1) Mist is Korathi

If Mist is Korathi, then most of this is just chaotic players, and there's less that can necessarily be read into it. It could be that Illwei and Devotary are Elims trying to cast suspicion on Mist and target the focus of the thread onto Mist and away from Practioners, though I don't find that a likely option, reading through.

2) Mist is a Practitioner/Cultist in the Practitioner Doc

If Mist is in the Practitioner Doc, I would say it's extremely likely that one of Illwei or Devotary being part of the same faction as Mist (though almost certainly not both). If I had to guess, I'd say Illwei is the most likely candidate, though I always struggle to read Devotary, so I certainly can't clear them. (Illwei might object that they were the first person to vote for Mist, but that in itself means that it could be a distancing tactic, rather than a genuine attempt to get Mist lynched, and why they later backtracked at the last minute.)

3) Mist is the Korathi Cultist

One of Illwei or Devotary would likely be a Jeskeri Cultist, in that case. If that's the case, I'd expect one or both of these players to die to the Jeskeri Inquisition in the next couple days, and for them to flip Cultist.

So, most likely according to Options 2 and 3, and with a possibility in Option 1, one of Devotary or Illwei is a Jeskeri (there's no easy way to tell what kind of Jeskeri they are, which is frustrating, but if we hunt for the people who we're fairly certain aren't Korathi there's a decent chance we'll find some Practitioners, and it's not really a problem unless we kill the Korathi Cultist, who the Practitioners have no way of killing). I'm tossing up between the two of them, and Mist - on the one hand, Illwei has been more suspicious throughout the game, but they also seem to have a more chaotic playstyle generally, which usually draws some suspicion. Devotary, on the other hand, isn't someone who I'd expect to pull these kinds of last-minute vote shenanigans as a Villager, so that makes them slightly more suspicious to me.

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1 hour ago, Young Bard said:

[Devotary] on the other hand, isn't someone who I'd expect to pull these kinds of last-minute vote shenanigans as a Villager, so that makes them slightly more suspicious to me.

I vote late because I keep setting myself up to only be around for the last hour before rollover, (and it looks like that's going to happen again). I didn't really see a vote on Elk to be plausible when there was only one on him and four on Mist, and wasn't too disinterested in voting Matrim. When I saw Matrim post, I thought it would be plausible to switch over to Elk, with the assumption that if Matrim didn't switch my vote made no difference and Mist was going to die anyway. Mist still could be a Practitioner, but I didn't see any strong reason to believe that was the case. 

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That was an interesting train wreck of a cycle. I think I will Join Sart in voting for Lord Silberfarben. He has stayed active enough to avoid the filter, but is skating under the radar.

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Well, this isn’t promising. I was expecting more people to get on before the end of the cycle. Silber. It feels like how he was playing some of the times we’ve been on teams and when he’s been an elim and is honestly my best bet right now.

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Hael died to the Jeskeri inquisition, so he must have been in the doc, so votes by elims don't necessarily indicate village alignment.

That said, 2/3 voters on Pyro C1 were in the elim doc. Since it doesn't appear that the elims have been using the main-thread lynch, this encourages a village lean on Pyro for me.

Devotary and Elkanah are the two voters in the C1 main lynchee whose alignments are unknown. 

I'm also confused. Here's hoping this goes well.

Silber

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The Silber vote doesn't feel good, definitely not all Korathi. There's four votes for Silber, one each for me and Elkanah.

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Let's spin the wheel.

Lord Silberfarben turns into Elkanah

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Gah.

This is looking REALLY bad.

...I'm feeling bad about this. Devotary or Elkanah?

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Devotary. Lord Silberfarben 

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