Quick Fix 46: Mysteries within Secrets

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1 hour ago, Gears said:

Illwei is my strongest JP read, though there's not much to analyse. [My reasoning can be found here, but quick summary: Illwei asked very specific questions and hasn't done anything to change my mind.

I don't think I can say anything else that will change your mind. Your post says that it was irrelevant and this post says that i asked specific questions, which I have already explained as best I could that what I posted was neither a question or really that irrelevant (at least in my mind, I thought i wrote a post explaining that?)

Am I missing something? 

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I don't think I can say anything else that will change your mind. Your post says that it was irrelevant and this post says that i asked specific questions, which I have already explained as best I could that what I posted was neither a question or really that irrelevant (at least in my mind, I thought i wrote a post explaining that?)

Am I missing something? 

You are not missing anything. You are simply my strongest suspicion. I think Sart is a cultist, and I have no idea about Ash. The evidence against you is stronger than the evidence against my other suspicions. If you are a Jeskeri, be it Practitioner or Cultist, and Sart or Ash are Jeskeri as well, could you propose lynching one of them? 

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Just now, Gears said:

You are not missing anything. You are simply my strongest suspicion. I think Sart is a cultist, and I have no idea about Ash. The evidence against you is stronger than the evidence against my other suspicions. If you are a Jeskeri, be it Practitioner or Cultist, and Sart or Ash are Jeskeri as well, could you propose lynching one of them? 

 lol So now you've made it that if I vote I incriminate myself further in your mind? 

[Gears]

Just now, Illwei said:

 lol So now you've made it that if I vote I incriminate myself further in your mind? 

No. If you are a Jeskeri, propose lynching one of them with the private Jeskeri Inquisition. You can vote on whoever in the thread.

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4 minutes ago, Gears said:

No. If you are a Jeskeri, propose lynching one of them with the private Jeskeri Inquisition. You can vote on whoever in the thread.

Well, I'm not Jeskeri lol, so-

Also @Matrim's Dice you said I was acting more nervous than last game and that is 100% true because people are quoting me and writing my name down and analyzing me and even voting on me unlike last game so that's kinda exciting [insert emoticon here because I don't like the Emojis]

[Kasimir]

[OOC] I had a long RP analysis post :/ I lost it all thanks to a keyboard accident. I am very annoyed. I tried to rescue it, but. Hyperlinks in post link to posts I reference.

Found on a scroll of paper rolled up tightly and tucked into an empty bottle still smelling faintly of berry wine:

Quote

Don't trust anyone. Kayana. The whole expedition has gone kayana. The Jeskeri - no, Mancia says they were cultists (how does he know that???) killed Shao. Found him dead at the entrance. Knife in chest. Doloken. What a way to go. No one will turn back now, though. I think we should all just leave. But Father Dedan said that he's staying, and forgive me, Ireden, but we need the money. And I fear that if we leave, those Jeskeri will sacrifice us anyway, in a misguided attempt to open the door.

Doloken. The Jeskeri are real. And they are among us.

That door. That cursed door. Better to have left it alone! Why would a Korathi temple sit abandoned here for so long? 

Every decision for something is a decision against something else.

1. What is Hael doing? I went to look for clusters in yesterday's Inquisition. Isolated, self-contained clusters jump out at me - possible Jeskeri communication via their own channels? (??? - how???) Why does Hael suspect Mancia? The Hael-Sun-Striker cluster sticks out like a broken cart wheel (some rulo tried to drag it through the mud by force yesterday and it broke) - little reason, little connection, and one of them was Jeskeri (Sun. Never would've imagined that lad a Jeskeri...) Another factor that makes the Hael-Sun-Striker cluster compelling: the Mancia Inquisition continued to be competitive. First, Sun voiced suspicions of Mancia, after Hael had spoken against Mancia. This brought the Mancia Inquisition into the lead, due to Shao having withdrawn his support from the AraRaashe Inquisition. (Another mess, that one!)

Sun, a known Jeskeri, pushed for a Mancia Inquisition by tiebreaking and leaving his support there. (Why?) But things get even more kayana. Shortly after Hinari (a known Korathi!) stood for an Inquisition on AraRaashe, Aanalan and Kiati rapidly supported this within minutes of each other. (Why???) Kiati's support is notable precisely because as Shao (another known Korathi!) pointed out, Kiati explicitly stated they were more suspicious of Hinari than AraRaashe, yet elected to support an Inquisition on AraRaashe. (More on this later.)

And when I say the Mancia Inquisition continued to be competitive, I mean more kayana happened. (...Sigh.) With four of the expedition members (Kaleno, Hinari, Aanalan and Kiati) supporting an Inquisition into AraRaashe, after challenge from Shao, Kiati defected to supporting a Hinari Inquisition instead. This meant AraRaashe led with three votes, and there were two on Hinari, being Dasehe and Kiati. At that point in time, Striker suddenly loomed with a vote for Mancia. Once again, the Inquisition was tied, with Mancia among the top contenders for the Inquisition. This is what I mean when I say the Hael-Sun-Striker cluster stands out, because it was oddly competitive twice. We still do not know why Hael or Striker thought Mancia was top contender for an Inquisition either, further compounding the mystery.

Commentary: I agree with Shao. Mancia's stunt with the letters is puzzling, but Mancia could be a cultist, could be Jeskeri, could be Korathi, could be the doloken rulo who broke my cart wheel! No way to tell, and not important. So how did the Mancia Inquisition gain the supporters it did? Reasons unclear. Need to be discovered.

Moreover - the expedition spent a great deal of time yesterday discussing the strategies the Jeskeri might employ. The real question in my eyes is: based off what we know, and the parameters, how are the Jeskeri, in fact, behaving? Sun's movement onto a disconnected cluster might indicate one of two things: A) the Jeskeri are attempting to lie low and settle their own Inquisition among their numbers (if this is true, then we should look at the quieter ones, such as (inexhaustive!!!!) Reolene, Ashen Silberfarben, xino,et al. - lying low may include trying to appear helpful by participating in largely Korathi-involved or -targeting Inquisitions) or B ) the Jeskeri are attempting to opportunistically kill their own via use of the Korathi Inquisition. If this is true, then those involved in the Hael-Sun-Striker cluster should be looked at, especially if Mancia is Jeskeri. The difficulty is not a shortage of possibilities: it is that we do not know which of them is true. (Ah, Naerin, you used to tell me this all the time...) 

2. What is with the AraRaashe cluster? The Inquisition that won, the Hinari cluster, was a flurry of last minute swaps, beginning with Grace and AraRaashe, almost simultaneously, and ending with Serenken all supporting an Inquisition on Hinari. That in itself lends the appearance of concerted, coordinated activity. The question, as always, is what this means.

We know Hinari is Korathi. But I do not think this entails that everyone who voted on Hinari is, of necessity, Korathi or a cultist. It is true that the Jeskeri are likely focused on the cultists among their numbers. (How the doloken does everyone know this? Kayana, this expedition.) But I do not think - for instance - that Kiati could have kept supporting the AraRaashe cluster in light of Shao's challenge, on pain of suspicion, whether among the Korathi or the Jeskeri. And why did Grace suddenly feel the need to vote for Hinari?

Of particular note is the clash between AraRaashe and Aanalan (reminds me of the fights Ireden used to get into with Opeli when they were younger...), which I find a little exaggerated at points, and part sophistry. The question is whether it is due to the current state of our ignorance, or malicious intention. At this point, I lean towards ignorance, though I think it is worth continued monitoring. 

3. While some of the others suspect Avanae, I have not interacted with them in the past and therefore am unable to evaluate the situation. Ironically, I am currently wary of Kaleno, Merryn, Kiati (*), Reolene, Sevat, Grace, though on a tentative basis, largely because they have been peripheral to the various clusters. This I mistrust. This is consistent with what a cultist might do, but also with a Jeskeri not wanting to get overtly involved in the Korathi Inquisition.

 

[Haelbarde]

13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Those specific last minute votes, not last minute votes in general.

Hmm. Mint didn't read as a Cultist, so I don't actually think you and Vapor are Practitioners. Though Pyro wouldn't really be a great alternative unless you knew he was in the Jeskeri doc. Definitely going to look at TJ again with Lotus being a Practitioner, but I don't know if Practitioner!TJ would have voted in thread and in a doc. I don't like Matrim saying it's 'much preferred' to kill a Cultist over a Korathi, but going after someone who had anti-Cultist sympathies didn't go well the first time. I want to know what's going on with the Pyro-Hael-3rd person PM triangle where Pyro apparently claimed Cultist to Hael, mentioned this fact to X, then X PMd Hael.

It already sorta came up but I can confirm that X was Gears. After a vague cultist claim from Pyro, I got a PM from Gears asking to confirm that Pyro had claimed Cultist to me. 

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC] This

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Found scratched into the broken wheel of a cart:

Edited for formatting. Again -.-'''

Edited to add: [OOC] Striker, you can consider yourself included in the question, as I forgot you went after Pyro too.

Mostly I was confused about what Pyro was attempting to do, and given a lack of time and a better option, Pyro seemed as good a choice as any, given the evidence of them lying in their opening interatctions with me. That Lotus supported the Pyro lynch makes me inclined to take off the tinfoil hat and read Pyro as Korathi for the moment I think.

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The vote tally as I count it so far:

Ash(1): Sart{1}
Devotary(0): Ash{1}
TJ(1): Ash{2}
Illwei(2): Matrim{1}, Gears{1}
Hael(0): Kas{1}
Sart(1): TJ{1}
Drake(1): Kas{2}

I need to reread some posts I think, and decipher Kas' recent post before putting down any votes though.

[Mat]

21 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also @Matrim's Dice you said I was acting more nervous than last game and that is 100% true because people are quoting me and writing my name down and analyzing me and even voting on me unlike last game so that's kinda exciting [insert emoticon here because I don't like the Emojis]

I suppose that's fair, though I don't have any other good suspicions and I'm not about to not vote.  

And now for some RP. See if you can catch the pun I put in it

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Dasehe grew more nervous with every passing minute. The day was evaporating, the exploration getting nowhere. The cursed door was still closed. All she had done for the past day was stand in a corner of the damp room, staring at the door and listening to everyone argue. She would've gone to try to help open the door- that was one of her specialties- but she was to frightened of a literal backstabbing.

She still found it in her piece of mind to voice her opinions, even when the day before that had gone very wrong, numerous people jumping on the thought of poor Hinari being a Jeskeri- and now today with Avanae, Dasehe couldn't bear the thought of what might occur if her thoughts were wrong yet again. The possibilities made her ill. 'We just need to find the Jeskeri' She would tell herself, as motivation. It wasn't particularly convincing, especially when she heard her name being mentioned in the crowd.

The arguments were becoming more heated, and a full day had almost elapsed since they had discovered the door and the bodies of three of the explorers. Dasehe would be shocked if more didn't appear soon. It would be a welcome surprise.

[Young Bard]

(Apologies for not getting on and voting yesterday - I meant to, but RL got in the way, and I was too exhausted to really focus. But I now have my laptop again, which makes things much easier.)

I'm getting a weird vibe off of Matrim. There's so much of what he writes which feels... performative. I'll show you what I mean.

20 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well that's mildly unfortunate. At least the Jeskeri Inquisition killed off a Practitioner.

First non-RP line, and it's reacting to the Jeskeri Inquisition lynch - a Practitioner dying was probably the most likely outcome. There's something about it which feels forced, like they feel they have to blend in and show that they, too, are happy about a Practitioner dying. And that trend continues here as well (emphasis mine).

13 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why? I think it's pretty clear we'd rather lynch a Cultist than a Korathi. The Cultists are actively killing us and the Korathi is, well, us. Of course I'd rather the Cultists die.

Which feels incredibly forced trying to ingratiate himself as a Villager.

He's also been fairly aggressively going after Illwei and Sart, which... Huh. Normally, I guess I'd associate that with more village behaviour, since I think Elim's generally want to fly under the radar, but again, my gut is saying that his tone is just off, somehow.

Blegh. I could definitely be tunnelling at this point, but I don't have any better suspicions. Tomorrow, when I'm more awake, I'll try and have another look at Matrim's (and everyone elses) posts and see if I'm still suspicious of him.

[Mat]

@Young Bard, That's just the way I talk. :/ I didn't do any before-thought really in any of my posts, and I'll try to explain my thought process a bit better.

4 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

First non-RP line, and it's reacting to the Jeskeri Inquisition lynch - a Practitioner dying was probably the most likely outcome. There's something about it which feels forced, like they feel they have to blend in and show that they, too, are happy about a Practitioner dying.

Since I was the first to react to the JP lynch, there wasn't much for me to try to 'blend in' to, and I normally say something about the lynch results at the beginning of a new cycle. There wasn't much else to say, to be honest. I didn't think about the likely results of the Jeskeri Inquisition, since that doesn't concern me in anything except the results.

9 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Which feels incredibly forced trying to ingratiate himself as a Villager.

I don't think that line is forced, though that's from my perspective as it's just how the thought came out. If you look at the first 2 posts of the game, made by Straw and TJ, they both, imo, feel much more to be forcing 'I'm a Korathi' than mine, something which I've pointed out before. And Straw was a Korathi, anyway.

10 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

He's also been fairly aggressively going after Illwei and Sart, which... Huh. Normally, I guess I'd associate that with more village behavior, since I think Elim's generally want to fly under the radar, but again, my gut is saying that his tone is just off, somehow.

Illwei, yes, he's my suspicion. Sart... I don't know what I said that makes you think I'm going after him. The only real things I've said pertaining him have been in response to other people, and I think it's more likely he's a Cultist than a Practitioner so he's sort of unimportant to my suspicions right now. 

[Haelbarde]

I feel like I've only vaguely followed Kas' post, but don't have the brain power to translate it all and properly respond to it... D: To answer one of Kas' questions though, there didn't feel like there was much conversation at all at the point I put my vote down - I'm pretty sure there were only single votes on half a dozen different players at the time. I might have voted differently if the discussion to happen after had happened while I was awake.

I think if I had to put down a vote on anyone right now, I'd opt for Sart. Suggesting a no lynch isn't something that is helpful to the Korathi (it's the Korathi tool for killing practioners), doesn't help the Practitioners (they need the lynch to hit the Korathi Cultist that probably exists). It primarily benefits the Cultists, giving them more time to use their kill to thin the numbers. But I feel like Sart's too experienced a player to do that in this game. At least, if they were a cultist I think they'd only do it if they were a Jeskeri cultist, and it was an idea discussed in the practioner doc that people were happy with, or at least if he thought he had the support of the Jeskeri anyway. It's useful for a Jeskeri to be thought of by the Korathi as a cultist as they become less likely to be lynched that way. So I'd say at the very least that I think they're Jeskeri. But I guess it does come down to are they practioner or cultist... Some have suggested cultist. If the jeskeri believe that, then I suppose Sart in this scenario would find themselves getting lynched by the Jeskeri. But if the Jeskeri don't believe that then we need to lynch them. I'd assume there are more Practioners that Cultists, so if Sart is a Jeskeri, if nothing else the odds are in our favour that they're a practitioner.

Not entirely convinced if the above makes sense. I think the point is I'd view Sart's play that seems more like a cultist play is something that a practioner or cultist would do to ge tKorathi support by seeming to be cultist in thread while being believed practioner by the Jeskeri (a Korathi would likely end up getting targetted by the Jeskeri anyway), and ultimately I think that Sart as a practioner makes more sense and I'd rather not wait around to see if the Jeskeri lynch Sart internally, given it's way too late for me at this point, and I'm not feelling any of the other lynch suggestions.

[Elkanah]

I'm going to put a placeholder vote on Ashbringer. I didn't have a lot of time last night, so I'll be updating my spreadsheet for the next little bit and I hope to have better reasons or a better target then. 

[---]

I'm going to throw a vote on Ashbringer for self preservation and because I think it's more likely for Sart to be a cultist than JP but idk the people who do the fishing things like that havent turned out to be elim in my last game so? which I don't think is a priority unless we get to a point where know there are more cultists than practitioners?

Edit: I'd rather vote Ash over Sart right now.

Edited July 30, 2020 by Illwei

[Ashbringer]

I'll respond to TJ's response first, then look at Illwei.

11 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Quote

Your first post had an odd tone, as if you were focusing on the first lynch instead of the overall game.

You're just repeating what multiple people have repeated, so I'll just repeat myself. My point was not to say "I'd be okay with lynching Cultists" which would be very stupid of me to say if I was JP. My point was "Let's not be scared of voting just because we might hit the Cultist". 

That wasn't what I was suspicious of. You said "Of course our first priority is to lynch a Practitioner, but mislynching a Cultist is NOT bad." My point isn't that you were talking about lynching Cultists, but that you say our priority is to lynch A Practitioner, that mislynching A Cultist isn't bad, that we shouldn't be scared of hitting THE Cultist. You seem to be only focusing on the first (next?) lynch instead of the overall game, and that tone just feels really off to me. Which now I find somewhat more suspicious because you don't seem to be responding to that at all, when the underlined portion seems clear as crystal to me.

11 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Quote

You seem to think that Sart wanted to be suspicious of people (like me) who opposed his idea, when he said he only wanted to promote discussion.

We're...taking Sart for his words? Just because he said he wanted to promote discussion doesn't mean he actually meant it. Yes, I thought Sart's intention was to draw out the people to oppose him and there's a good chance one of them opposing him might be JP. It's equally bad for the village and JP not to have the public Inquisition. I do not believe his claim that he did only wanted to promote discussion. His post was too extreme and aggressive to just promote discussion. But again. how does this make me look suspicious when I'm only questioning his intent? 

I don't believe Sart either, as he's ignored all the "discussion" that I generated in response. But I'm also fairly certain he's a Cultist and not a Practitioner. Depending on Sart's alignment, it could be a bluff to generate discussion, it could be a bluff to draw out Jeskeri, or it could be a real "idea". Since I'm more leaning toward Cultist!Sart, I'm thinking that it was actually a suggestion that would give Cultists more control if people went along with it. It sure didn't seem like a bluff to me.

Looking at this again, I'm less suspicious of it, as Sart's intentions are difficult to see without knowing his alignment. I just thought it odd to assume that a player should be suspicious of another.

11 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Quote

And you seem to be highly downplaying how much impact losing control of the lynch has on the Korathi.

No? Drake told we'd lose if we lost majority. I found it suspicious because I knew (and I expected other villagers to know) we lose when every one of us is dead. Nowhere did I talk about the impact of losing the majority and subsequently losing the control of the lynch? Nowhere did I say "It's fine to lose majority, we can still win!", or implied anything close to it.

That's my point. You didn't talk about it. At all. Drake said that "We pretty much need to root out a smaller and better informed faction before we lose majority." You just told Drake "We do not lose if we lost the majority. We lose only if we are completely eliminated. Suspicious that you do not know that", and later told Straw "Nowhere is it mentioned that loss of majority for us leads to our loss". My point is that losing the majority, while not game-ending, is quite bad, as the Jeskeri will start directing the lynch toward suspected Cultists and the Cultists will still be killing Korathi. So while we can still win, you never mentioned an (admittedly obvious) downside. Null change in my suspicion from this defense.

The Cultists are kinda like my Kandra. They can only win if they kill the remaining Korathi and Practitioners off in the same turn. Except they have a constant kill and possible influence over two lynch kills. But if they get majority in the Jeskeri doc, then all the Jeskeri get majority over the Korathi, the Cultists get very close to winning and making us lose.

11 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

 Again, how is this suspicious? Seeing the content count is a very reasonable way to judge whether a player is new or old. It's a very obvious deduction to make. If a player's content is high, there's a higher chance that they have played a few games as compared to being a new player. The way Lotus framed the question is what made me suspicious. And now we know Lotus was attempting to act innocent, which is what I suspected. 

Quote

Fair enough on this point. I'm not sure why Jeskeri!TJ would in-thread vote on the most likely Inquisition kill, although that falls into IKYK quick.

I will say, MOST of my suspicion was from the first post tone and the majority thing. I just found those other posts strange. So, TJ Shade.

 

Other people I'm interested in are Matrim (for the reasons that Bard and others have been saying), Vapor (for voting on Mint, right before I did...) and Illwei (for nervousness and for being a newer player that TJ ignored unlike Lotus (sorry)). I don't want to lynch Sart as my strongest Cultist read. 

(And as I'm typing this, here's Illwei with a self-preservation vote on me. Well... vote for a vote it is, then.)

Edited July 30, 2020 by Ashbringer
Added reason for voting Illwei, aside from self-preservation

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Mist said:

I'm wondering what Kas was even doing. 

[OOC] When you find out, do tell me, because I sure don't know  

30 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

It already sorta came up but I can confirm that X was Gears. After a vague cultist claim from Pyro, I got a PM from Gears asking to confirm that Pyro had claimed Cultist to me. 

Mostly I was confused about what Pyro was attempting to do, and given a lack of time and a better option, Pyro seemed as good a choice as any, given the evidence of them lying in their opening interatctions with me. That Lotus supported the Pyro lynch makes me inclined to take off the tinfoil hat and read Pyro as Korathi for the moment I think.

[OOC] Hmm. I'm still feeling a bit iffy about this particular cluster, but given you're the initial voter, and we're both working under time crunches, I could kind of see this being a thing. I'll need to think harder about it. I admit that since Lotus could just be opportunistically jumping on your vote, I am side-eying Striker harder than I'm side-eying you  

I do want to make some comments about the existing main discussions though, beyond just voting pattern analysis, so:

• TJ: I'm meh about TJ. As I said, I think TJ is cracking down really hard in terms of use of language, and I think it slips a bit towards sophistry. (See: the whole issue with Drake's talk of losing the majority, which spiralled into an issue with Straw and Ash intervening.) IMO, I do think TJ is being overprecise. I'm not taking this game seriously but the three body problem here is throwing me off in terms of working out the interactions, and I'm a pretty average player. It doesn't rule out that Drake or Ash are really making incautious slips due to being from a different faction but it's not enough to sway me against them. I do think that this line of argument has been pushed way too far for what it can do - that does make me mildly suspicious of TJ, but at the same time, I'm leery of diving into the mudpit to join everyone else. Pass on this.
   
• Elk: Unlike most people, I actually tend to be more suspicious of people who post comprehensive reads  Because my immediate question is what are they framing and how are they framing things. (So I do have some issue, for instance, with how Gears characterises some of the posts, though whether it's my own version of the TJ precisification problem, IDK.) But in this case, I'm a bit more interested because of Elk being part of the Ash train, and also, Elk being surprisingly peripheral for the rest of the cycle and (so far) into this one.
   
• Ilwei: No opinion, mild distrust. I read the arguments against Ilwei as being fundamentally based on comparison to Ilwei's LG67 playstyle. I wasn't in LG67, so I have no basis for comparison, though I vaguely recall LG67 Ilwei being a bit more helpful. Ilwei reads as being defensive right now in tone, which could be exasperated Korathi, or basically any other faction. What is interesting is that two players I don't particularly trust are pushing the Ilwei lynch. 
   
• Ash: Urgh. The issue is that I don't disagree with some of Ash's points on TJ, I just think that like TJ, Ash is blowing up small issues and assembling them into a big package. These issues don't particularly point to Practitioner either, though I'm happy to be shown how they do. Again - staying out of that mudpit. Pass. (On a gut level, I think this has gotten so involved on a minute level I am not certain it's a Jeskeri fight at all. But that's my gut talking, and reason says to distrust them both.)
   
• Gears: Same issue as with Elk from the start. Add that to the shift from Ash to Mint, and I'm definitely rather dubious. Same issue with Ash - some blowing-up. Same as with Ash and TJ, could be a D1 issue. But the Jeskeri proposal is a good one. If Sart is really a cultist, and in the Jeskeri doc, then the Jeskeri will probably want to go for him at some point.
   
• Pyro: Don't understand at all what Pyro is saying. If someone can translate that for me, would be great.
   
• Sart: I've gone through Sart's posts again. You don't seem to want to be read at all this game  That vote on Straw makes little sense to me - strategic disagreement as a reason for voting is different from calling a bluff. You don't seem particularly concerned with making a targeting distinction. At the same time, I still have no idea what the gambit was supposed to be doing. Stir discussion, yes. How? In what ways? To what end? 
   
• Mat: Still interested in why he thinks Ilwei's faction has any bearing on Pyro's. Mild distrust for post about his suggested lynch happening and "the possible shade it would throw on me in the case I'm wrong." You were the first person to place the vote on Mint (for admittedly iffy reasons, as Gears points out, but it's D1.) The wagon appeared afterwards. So why the disclaimer? Almost as though you knew which way the lynch would turn up and were commenting conscious of that.

As I doubt Drake is going to pop on in the next 50 minutes or so, Matrim it is.

[Mat]

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Still interested in why he thinks Ilwei's faction has any bearing on Pyro's.

I don't anymore, and honestly don't know why I ever did even after rereading C1. Don't ask me what my tired brain was thinking  

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Mild distrust for post about his suggested lynch happening and "the possible shade it would throw on me in the case I'm wrong." You were the first person to place the vote on Mint (for admittedly iffy reasons, as Gears points out, but it's D1.) The wagon appeared afterwards. So why the disclaimer? Almost as though you knew which way the lynch would turn up and were commenting conscious of that.

I got scared there. For reasons such as these, I don't super like it when a lot of people jump on my lynch idea right at the end of the cycle, as a lot of suspicion seems to turn on me. That being said, I am sort of asking for it by voting on someone who has no votes yet, and I hope that makes me stand out a bit more then Gears/Ashbringer, who have just followed me every time. (or in Ash's case, voted in self-preservation both cycles)

And I am sorta feeling the same way now, because I know if Illwei is lynched and flips Korathi, then I am thrown under even more shade for everyone following my suggestion. Which in turn makes me wonder about Gears, who's as I've already just said followed my vote around both cycles.

Edited July 30, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Gears]

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

(So I do have some issue, for instance, with how Gears characterises some of the posts, though whether it's my own version of the TJ precisification problem, IDK.)

Could you clarify what exactly you have issues with? And yes, the Ash-Mint switch was incredibly suspicious, but if I was JP, there would be no benefit to switching off of Ash since I would want to lynch Jeskeri to kill cultists. There is of course the possibility that I am a cultist, but if you are Korathi, you have no reason to lynch me.

EDIT: ninja'd by Matrim.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Which in turn makes me wonder about Gears, who's as I've already just said followed my vote around.

We happen to have similar suspicions that have been wrong thus far. However, a function cannot be defined with 2 points. If this continues in the future, your suspicion may be valid. 

Edited July 30, 2020 by Gears

[The Young Pyromancer]

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

Mostly I was confused about what Pyro was attempting to do, and given a lack of time and a better option, Pyro seemed as good a choice as any, given the evidence of them lying in their opening interatctions with me. That Lotus supported the Pyro lynch makes me inclined to take off the tinfoil hat and read Pyro as Korathi for the moment I think.

Remember, the Jeskerai doc is anonymous, and the Jeskerai kind of want to lynch themselves. I'm actually somewhat sus of you, as your pattern would fit you thinking I'm a Jeskerai Cultist, then looking at the doc and concluding that no one in it is trolly enough to be me.

Because I don't know what the vote is, I'll vote on Ash, as though I think they and Illwei have about decent odds of being Practitioners, there's a better chance of Ash than Illwei being Cultist due to how people are defending them. 

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Remember, the Jeskerai doc is anonymous, and the Jeskerai kind of want to lynch themselves. I'm actually somewhat sus of you, as your pattern would fit you thinking I'm a Jeskerai Cultist, then looking at the doc and concluding that no one in it is trolly enough to be me.

Pyro, this is from the rules :

Quote

Jeskeri doc: Contains every Jeskeri practitioner and cultist (see exception just above). Non-anonymous; all names will be listed at the top and each player must choose a distinct color and keep to it. Editing others’ text is forbidden.

And the vote count is:

• Illwei (3): Matrim’s Dice, Gears, Ashbringer
• Matrim’s Dice (2): Young Bard, Kasimir 
• Sart (1): Haelbarde 
• Ashbringer (4): Elkanah, Illwei, The Young Pyromancer, Sart

Edited July 30, 2020 by Matrim's Dice
Wrong vote count. THREE TIMES :P

[Vapor]

I'm a bad person and completely forgot about this until now, so... I really like the reasoning in Haelbarde's Sart vote, so I'm going to vote Sart too.

[DrakeMarshall]

I'm feelin a little behind on all the thread happenings and my brain won't work.

But I can at least activate my tally script and get the lay of the land:

Vote Tally
Ashbringer (4): Elkanah, Illwei, Sart, The Young Pyromancer
Illwei (4): Ashbringer, Gears, Matrim's Dice, DrakeMarshall
Sart (2): Haelbarde, TJ Shade
Matrim's_Dice (2): Kasimir, Young Bard

Please tell me if this has mistakes.

I don't really feel informed enough to decide which one is more suspicious, but I like ties. Very frequently gives us more to go off of. So Illwei it is.

Also it looks like I was ninja'd by Matrim. With respect to your tally, I believe Sart's vote is still on Ashbringer.

That's all now I gotta go catch up on the thread during rollover peace out.

Edited July 30, 2020 by DrakeMarshall
updated tally with my own vote

[---]

9 minutes ago, Gears said:

Could you clarify what exactly you have issues with? And yes, the Ash-Mint switch was incredibly suspicious, but if I was JP, there would be no benefit to switching off of Ash since I would want to lynch Jeskeri to kill cultists. There is of course the possibility that I am a cultist, but if you are Korathi, you have no reason to lynch me.

Is everyone forgetting about the Korathi Cultist??

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Don't ask me what my tired brain was thinking

I think you were seeing that one of the only posts I made I think was a defense of Pyro

[Ashbringer]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Pyro, this is from the rules :

And the vote count is:

• TJ Shade (1): Ashbringer 
• Illwei (3): Matrim’s Dice, Gears, Ashbringer 
• DrakeMarshall (1): Kasimir 
• Matrim’s Dice (2): Young Bard, Kasimir 
• Sart (1): Haelbarde 
• Ashbringer (3): Elkanah, Illwei, The Young Pyromancer 

I'm not on TJ. You have me voting twice.

And @The Young Pyromancer, who's defending me at this point?? Devotary?

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I think you were seeing that one of the only posts I made I think was a defense of Pyro

Eh, probably true. *Shrug*

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I'm not on TJ. You have me voting twice.

Yes, I edited that :P. 3 times...

[Ashbringer]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yes, I edited that :P. 3 times...

Oops. I'm still dying so please help...

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Is everyone forgetting about the Korathi Cultist??

That makes me suspicious. The KC's been focused on, but it's also a needle in a haystack while the JPs can still make better guesses about the JCs.

 

I'm thinking that some group or another is framing TJ by killing me. So don't lynch TJ just because I flip Korathi.

Edit: actually, it's a tossup between me and Illwei. Fun.

Edited July 30, 2020 by Ashbringer