Quick Fix 46: Mysteries within Secrets

[Ashbringer]

26 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Wiping out all the Practitioners obviously loses for the Cultists, but only having one Practitioner is also bad for them, and so long as there are at least two Practitioners it's possible for them to accidentally kill one of their own. Maybe there will be enough dead Korathi that the Cultists won't prefer dead Cultists until there's only one Practitioner left, but that wouldn't be for a while. I suppose claiming might be less likely than bussing even though votes placed in the doc can't be trusted, but it has a similar overall effect.

This I mostly agree with. I'm not entirely sure how the Cultists will/should play, but we shouldn't be putting the ball in their court. They do have to toe the line of killing more Korathi than Practitioners without giving lynch control to the Practitioners.

26 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Also, it almost looks like you think the Practitioners know who the Korathi Cultist is when that's definitely not the case.

The thing is, so long as the Cultists keep lynch control out of the Practitioner's hands, it doesn't matter. Only the main lynch will kill the Korathi Cultist, and if the Korathi main players avoid the lynch there's no solution, aside from one: buss the suspected Korathi Cultist. Doing so will reveal most of the Jeskeri to the thread, where the Korathi will probably pick them off one by one with their lynch control. So if they buss the wrong person they probably lose.

Edit: not only does "bus" only have one S, but I also meant hammer...

Edited July 29, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

The thing is, so long as the Cultists keep lynch control out of the Practitioner's hands, it doesn't matter. Only the main lynch will kill the Korathi Cultist, and if the Korathi main players avoid the lynch there's no solution, aside from one: buss the suspected Korathi Cultist. Doing so will reveal most of the Jeskeri to the thread, where the Korathi will probably pick them off one by one with their lynch control. So if they buss the wrong person they probably lose.

How will bussing the suspected Korathi Cultist reveal the Jeskeri? I can see a scenario where the Cultists voluntarily reveal the Jeskeri to the thread so the Korathi will lynch them, but bussing the suspected Korathi Cultist does not automatically reveal the Jeskeri.

[Mat]

Just now, Gears said:

How will bussing the suspected Korathi Cultist reveal the Jeskeri? I can see a scenario where the Cultists voluntarily reveal the Jeskeri to the thread so the Korathi will lynch them, but bussing the suspected Korathi Cultist does not automatically reveal the Jeskeri.

I think Ash is saying if a bunch of people suddenly vote on someone who turns out to be the Korathi Cultist, those people will probably include a large number of Practitioners.

[Ashbringer]

Aye.

... I meant hammer, not bus... sigh.

Especially if the Korathi Village agree to not vote, then any hammers look really like Jeskeri, even if they hit the wrong target.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Sart]

4 hours ago, Sart said:

Right then. Time to propose my game-breaking strategy.

NOBODY VOTE IN THE THREAD.

I'm a Korathi. The Jeskeri combined make up a sizable percentage of the town, so I doubt any attempts to lynch a Jeskeri Practitioner will work. Meanwhile, the Jeskeri will be lynching themselves at a rapid rate to try and accomplish their win condition. Instead of killing ourselves, we should let the Jeskeri do our work for us.

Any votes will be viewed as Jeskeri aggression, and I will vote on the first person who votes, for as long as they continue to vote.

Sorry, sometimes I can't resist kicking the hornet's nest. I'm perfectly aware that non-voting is a non-strategy. If you look at the games I've played, you'll realize that I tend to extol the virtues of voting, so that post was wildly out of character. I mostly made it to stir up reactions.

Since there is only a one-vote minimum, I suspect lynches will occur in both the Jeskeri doc, and the main game. I'm assuming that there are more Jeskeri combined, than there are Korathi, otherwise the Korathi have no hope of controlling the lynch today. This means the game in the doc will go quicker than the game in the thread. The best scenario for the Korathi is the Cultists to do well in that game, eliminating those pesky JP.

At the same time, since the Korathi are the bigger party, I would expect the Cultist kill to hit us first. Obviously, it's going to be better if we lynch a JP, but with what I'm estimating as a third of the village in that doc, it's going to be hard. That's why a strategy of non-voting would be ideal. However, both the JP, as well as the Korathi cultist don't want that to happen. Thus, votes will be thrown out, and we'll have a day one lynch anyways.

Onto post analysis

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

The door. The cursed door. Everyone's arguing now, of course. Everyone is Korathi, except that of course not everyone is. Makes any sense to you? Sure doesn't to me. Some of the fools are saying there's Jeskeri hidden among us. Merciful Domi, nobody needs that. I signed on to this expedition because Father Dedan was paying well for porters. Need the money for Ireden.

'Course, the others were telling stories about the pyramid. Saying that the expedition would find ancient treasure or writings. Or a blessing from Domi. I don't need any of that. I wouldn't get to put my hands on the treasure and Ireden needs food and medicine. And now the whole expedition has gone kayana over the door. Does this make sense, I ask you? Okay, so we tried to break down the door and it wouldn't budge. A pickaxe broke. But what's to say the door is divinely-guarded, or it won't open because there are Jeskeri among us? Kayana, I tell you. Utterly kayana.

I don't trust Sevat though. Says he won't brook us turning on each other. Would be nice if we could hold hands and sing songs together, but now that everyone's kayana? How's that going to happen?

And if there are Jeskeri among us - well. Who says they won't just cut our throats in our sleep?

What's wrong with this world?

I love that you're playing the game in RP. It's good to have you back. Can't say that I appreciate the vote on myself, but that post was weird for my standards, so it's understandable. The promise in that post was a bluff, so no vote here.

3 hours ago, Straw said:

Sart started in LG4 and is #3 in terms of games played, so no!

I find Sart's thing odd? He says that the Jeskeri can probably control the vote, which is very debatable!!! He seems to think that this will result in the vote swinging towards Korathi, which I disagree with! I think that the Jeskeri would probably direct the vote towards themselves, in an attempt to kill the Cultists!!!

That's a bold claim from Straw. You believe that the Jeskeri doc will direct the thread's vote to themselves, but I greatly disagree with that argument. In fact, that's such an odd idea, I wonder if it was discussed in a doc somewhere. Straw

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Agreed here.

Hmm... Are you agreeing that my post was odd, or that the Jeskeri would direct the vote to themselves?

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Now that RP is finished, game talk.

The way I see it it's not really too different from a normal elimination game. We pretty much need to root out a smaller and better informed faction before we lose majority. The catch is that the faction that's killing us (Cultists) is not the faction we have to kill (Practitioners). That should definitely change how we do analysis, but I really don't think it changes our overall approach to the game that much.

Which leads us into the other topic. Like loads of peeps have already said, I don't think Sart's plan is so great of an idea, and I have every intention of voting. If we don't use our lynch, we're effectively wagering that the Practitioners will all get wiped out on their own before we do, which is a bad wager since neither Practitioners nor Cultists want that to happen.

However, I also don't think Jeskeri!Sart would have suggested it. As much as I think the proposal would make us lose, to me it feels more consistent with Sart's attempts to be proactive as a villager at the beginning of a game, and it seems a tad on the nose for a Practitioner to be suggesting it, since I would argue it would benefit the Practitioners moreso than anybody else. So I also kinda oppose lynching Sart.

Tbh from the part of my brain that's still in elim-mode from last game, it kinda occurs village!Sart making a suggestion with backlash would provide a pretty good pretext for a mislynch. Kasimir @Kasimir, what do you think?

Looks like my plan got Drake to trust me, and caused Kasimir to get a vote. To be honest, that post was ripe for a vote, so it might be tempting for a Jeskeri to go for it. On the other hand, I could see Kasimir making that post as a villager, because historically kumbaya never works.

So, all in all, I'm pleased with the discussion I've generated, and I want to hear more from Straw about the point I highlighted.

[Ashbringer]

I don’t know if I buy a bluff, Sart. You claim that you were purporting this to stir reaction, and yet you don’t even mention me and my objections in your analysis.

Although in your favor, I haven’t seen or read many games with you. My experience amounts to watching you die N1 in the LG after a single post targeting Striker, and watching everyone argue over whether or not you were Bleeder in MR42. So it’s a understandable defense from what I can see, if a less understandable action.

Regardless, I‘m starting to think you’re more Korathi. I still think you’re the Korathi Cultist, maybe, but that would be rather on-the-nose and as a Korathi myself I wouldn’t want you dead anyway. (Which I still think is... strange, but that’s another point entirely.)

Edited July 29, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Mat]

28 minutes ago, Sart said:

Hmm... Are you agreeing that my post was odd, or that the Jeskeri would direct the vote to themselves?

Both, and here is why:

28 minutes ago, Sart said:

That's a bold claim from Straw. You believe that the Jeskeri doc will direct the thread's vote to themselves, but I greatly disagree with that argument. In fact, that's such an odd idea, I wonder if it was discussed in a doc somewhere. Straw

I interpreted Straw's statement as that the JP have a set on who the targets are: They know who the Korathi are, and thus will be less prone to vote on them. I think that it's very possible the JP vote, both in their doc and in the thread, on who they think the Cultists are to double their speed of achieving their wincon. So I don't think it's odd.

I do think the tone of your post and the idea of a bluff/post to generate discussion + your jump on Straw is odd. But... I don't necessarily think it's JP behavior, so I'll hold off voting on you for now.

[Frozen Mint]

The Cultists have to be careful in the Jeskeri doc because as more JP's die, Cultists will make up a larger proportion of the Jeskeri doc which puts them more at risk of getting hit by the Jeskeri Inquisition. At least until the Cultists outnumber the JP's. The cultists also don't want the JP to die off too fast, because then the Korathi win once all Practioners are dead.

Hm... The more I think about this, the more this seems like it'll be an interesting game.

The Cultists will probably direct all their kills for now towards the Korathi.

16 minutes ago, Sart said:

Since there is only a one-vote minimum, I suspect lynches will occur in both the Jeskeri doc, and the main game. I'm assuming that there are more Jeskeri combined, than there are Korathi, otherwise the Korathi have no hope of controlling the lynch today. This means the game in the doc will go quicker than the game in the thread. The best scenario for the Korathi is the Cultists to do well in that game, eliminating those pesky JP.

At the same time, since the Korathi are the bigger party, I would expect the Cultist kill to hit us first. Obviously, it's going to be better if we lynch a JP, but with what I'm estimating as a third of the village in that doc, it's going to be hard. That's why a strategy of non-voting would be ideal. However, both the JP, as well as the Korathi cultist don't want that to happen. Thus, votes will be thrown out, and we'll have a day one lynch anyways.

I disagree, based on the reasoning I stated above. The Cultists will primarily go after us, not the JP. They'll try to make sure the Jeskeri Inquisition hits a Practioner for the sake of self-preservation but we can't rely on them to hit our win condition for us. The Korathi need to identify who the Practioners and Cultists are as soon as possible and the only way to do that is through the lynch.

I'm also confused. You said that your vote is out of character because you usually are very supportive of the lynch, yet you're also saying that non-voting would be ideal. It seems contradictory.

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I don’t know if I buy a bluff, Sart.

I don't think Sart was bluffing. It was a pretty wild strategy to propose, I doubt he believed anyone would follow it. And considering how expected the backlash was, I would have expected a genuine attempt to promote anti-voting to include a very heavy dose of reasoning and points and counterpoints which isn't what happened.

I'm personally going to log away Sart's posts as NAI for the time being.

 

I both love and hate D1 lynches.  But I intend to vote before the end of the cycle.

[Frozen Mint]

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Of course our first priority is to lynch a Practitioner, but mislynching a Cultist is NOT bad. They're looking to kill us after all, and they'll prioritise killing us over killing the Practitioners because a. we're larger in number and we win if they kill too many Practitioners and b. they have an in-doc lynch to try and kill Practitioners. 

So lynching a Cultist is not bad just as long as we don't lynch too many of them too often. 

What are your thoughts on lynching a Cultist hiding in the Korathi, vs a Cultist that has access to the Jeskeri doc?

[The Young Pyromancer]

Just now, Frozen Mint said:

What are your thoughts on lynching a Cultist hiding in the Korathi, vs a Cultist that has access to the Jeskeri doc?

Well, there's functionally no difference, right? At least, when it comes to us.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Well, there's functionally no difference, right? At least, when it comes to us.

But it might be different for TJ...

[Frozen Mint]

6 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Well, there's functionally no difference, right? At least, when it comes to us.

Disagree but I'm going to reserve my thoughts until I get TJ's answer. 

[Straw]

Okay, popping in before bed!! I’m honestly incredibly confused by Sart! I really don’t buy the baiting narrative from him!!!

48 minutes ago, Sart said:

That's a bold claim from Straw. You believe that the Jeskeri doc will direct the thread's vote to themselves, but I greatly disagree with that argument. In fact, that's such an odd idea, I wonder if it was discussed in a doc somewhere. Straw

While this is kind of OMGUS from me, I really don’t like this reasoning!! Sart says I’m wrong, but refuses to say why!!! He then follows up with a vote on me with a justification that I find fairly absurd!!! It feels like it was just thrown in to give a reason other than disagreement! Notably, he really doesn’t state any solid reasoning or give me anything to really discuss with him! All in all, this vote just seems super off, and I’m not quite sure what to make of it!!!!!

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

Okay, popping in before bed!! I’m honestly incredibly confused by Sart! I really don’t buy the baiting narrative from him!!!

While this is kind of OMGUS from me, I really don’t like this reasoning!! Sart says I’m wrong, but refuses to say why!!! He then follows up with a vote on me with a justification that I find fairly absurd!!! It feels like it was just thrown in to give a reason other than disagreement! Notably, he really doesn’t state any solid reasoning or give me anything to really discuss with him! All in all, this vote just seems super off, and I’m not quite sure what to make of it!!!!!

Yeah, not sure what to make of it either. In a normal SE game I'd probably read it as mild-C1read-elim but this is not a normal SE game :P.

[---]

I mean, a Jeskeri strategy could be to try and get all the other Jeskeris...Jeskeri...(is Jeskeri already plural?) killed, couldn't it? because you would know that you aren't a cultist, so if you're able to somehow get the Korathi Cultist lynched then theoretically you could win the game for the Jeskeri if you only care about protecting yourself?

On the other hand its easier for you to be lynched technically?...and maybe for the cultists to kill you if they end up outnumbering you in the end? so...nevermind I guess

[|TJ|]

Don't have access to laptop and haven't read through stuff so I'll just reply to Mint. 

6 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

What are your thoughts on lynching a Cultist hiding in the Korathi, vs a Cultist that has access to the Jeskeri doc?

I'd rather not lynch a Cultist at all. Sorry if my original message seems to indicate that. What I meant was we shouldn't be scared to vote just because we might hit a Cultist. 

I'd rather not make a deliberate attempt to lynch a Cultist. But if we did, I'd rather lynch the one with access to Jeskeri doc. The Korathi Cultist(s) is/are a huge asset to us IF they claim to us. Even if they don't claim to us, they are the one thing that would stop the JP from achieving their win-con. As long as we manage to keep our lynch off the Korathi Cultist, it should be impossible for the JP to win. 

Sure, JP could fake-claim as Korathi Cultist, but we'll get to that if someone claims to be one. 

[+Lotus]

Is their mandatory voting in this one?

[Mat]

14 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Is their mandatory voting in this one?

Nope.

 Edit: Aaaaand my 700th post was the word 'Nope'. Very Cool :P.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Elkanah]

I'm finally caught up. Here are my thoughts on the first twelve-ish hours.

I can't figure out how to make a spreadsheet, so I have a Link instead.

TL;DR 

With the fifty posts available right now, I think Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Illwei, and maybe Kasimir are Jeskeri Practitioners. Frozen Mint might be a cultist. Straw is probably not a practitioner and that is good enough for me.

I'll vote for Ashbringer for now.

Current Vote Count:

Sart (1): Kasimir

TJ Shade (1): Straw

Elkanah (1): Drake

Straw (1): Sart

Ashbringer (1): Elkanah

Now to respond

 

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

 (Elkanah) consider yourself poked for the time being. Do you think the analysis/strategy is different for catching "Half-Villagers"?

I am poked

For now I am treating it the same. I find it interesting that the people we are hunting can't really hunt us back. Not only that, but they don't really want to except for the hidden cultist and their only tool to that end is our lynch. 

Most of my other responses and questions have already been brought up or resolved to my satisfaction for now. I'll take another look in the morning.

[Young Bard]

OK, I'm going to be on mobile for all of C1, so I'm not going be typing out long paragraphs of analysis until tomorrow.

I keep on flipping on who I think the rules are biased against. During signups, I thought the Practitioners had the hardest job, being wedged from both sides and having to kill some of their own in order to win, but I'm starting to wonder if the Korathi are going to have the most difficulty, since in trying to lynch Practitioners they could easily kill a Cultist, furthering the Practitioners wincon, and the Cultists will prevent the Korathi from ever getting too close to wiping out the Practitioners.

Suggesting something provocative D1 is not something I usually associate with Sart, but I don't find it unusual or AI either. I do intend to vote a bit later, once I look a bit closer to see if I can find anyone I'm more suspicious of.

[Kasimir]

Found scratched into the bark of an old tree, at knee-height:

Quote

Doloken.

Truth is, I didn't really suspect Sevat. The man's a rulo, to be sure. Threatening to go about attacking the first of us to start talking about our suspicions. An exaggerated position. Almost as though it was theatre.

So I had to be sure. The difference between a threat and theatre is an extra 'e' - and the willingness to back the threat up by force. And well, if Sevat had turned on me as well and held his position, then it would have been a tie. Depending on how things fell out, both of us would have had to fear for our lives. But Sevat called it a bluff, after I indicated I was suspicious of him, and he did not retaliate.

Can I really condemn him for a little theatre when I myself was ready to call his bluff?

Idos Domi, the whole expedition has really gone kayana. Everyone was discussing how the Jeskeri might behave. Mancia drew me aside to tell me about the differences in the Jeskeri. Apparently, some of them are cultists. Why in the name of Doloken would a good Korathi know this? How does the whole kayana expedition know so much about the inner workings of the Jeskeri?

I don't really care to add more to the speculation. What good is speculation without action at this point?

I will watch and see.

Merciful Domi, watch over me. Protect Ireden. And bring me safely home to Ireden, please.

Ireden, wait for me. I love you.

[OOC: I cannot believe I have had to explain this but please keep in mind I am delivering game content through RP, which means I have to keep in-character, and Kiean's character description is literally 'Only Sane Korathi.' He is not going to know a lot of things  Also, good to play with you again, Sart

 And I have no good way to deliver this with RP, so: Kasimir/Kiean. I'm sorry, El  ]

[Coffeecat]

hello there.

I just want to say hi and sorry beforehand for not being more active.

 

[Haelbarde]

Argh. This game makes my brain hurt, trying to understand how each faction will want to be playing.

In regards to Sart, he has made no d1 lynch suggestions while being the extra kill role on an elim team, so that play certainly wouldn't stop him from being a practitioner or cultist.

 

[|TJ|]

Alright, I've read through everything and here are my thoughts. Mild Non-JP leans on Mint, Devotary, Ashbringer, and Matrim. Agree with Matrim (and Ashbringer?) that the Sart bit was odd. If his intention was to make possible JP to oppose the no-lynch scenario, then why didn't he raise suspicion on people opposing the no-lynch idea? @Sart
I also disagree with everyone telling the JP will try to lynch their own teammates in an attempt to mislynch Cultists. The only way for the JP to win is to kill the Korathi Cultist, and until at least one of the is dead, they will try to mislynch villagers hoping they hit the KC. 

My suspicions:

15 hours ago, Lotus said:

Is Sart a new player though? (Forgive me, IDK, only been playing a few rounds) Cause that seems like a idea a new player might have. Rust and Ruin, I made enough blunders my first time playing.

Still might support a Sart lynch though. Just bringing this up. (And if he is a veteran, will definitely support a lynch with that

It should sort of obvious by looking at Sart's content count that he's not a new player.

15 hours ago, Lotus said:

Question: Can the Jeskeri practitioners only lynch within themselves or from everyone?

I had already asked this in the sign-ups. In fact, Elbereth's clarification post was just 1 post above yours. I highly doubt you would've missed it. I think you're playing the new player card. Asking questions to seem naive, and playing up your inexperience. You were a lot more confident in MR43. Lotus

14 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

We pretty much need to root out a smaller and better informed faction before we lose majority.

A Korathi would definitely know their loss condition. We do not lose if we lost the majority. We lose only if we are completely eliminated. Suspicious that you do not know that. 

@Elkanah, I disagree with most of your JP reads. Not because of my non-JP reads on them, rather because I do not agree with the reasons for your reads. Almost all your JP reads seem to be based on the reasoning that they are focusing on Cultists. I'd argue that most of the discussion around Cultists (especially those from Matrim and Ashbringer) came as a response to vote in opposition to Sart's no-lynch plan. You could say that they could be JP because they would want a public lynch as well, but the way they opposed it after the warning from Sart makes me think they're not JP. Also, I don't believe a JP would blatantly focus and go after the Cultists in-thread. As I told earlier, the public vote in the only way they can lynch the Korathi Cultists, and I think they'd rather focus their attention there.
Also, could you clarify what "He is not. This suggestion feels very Sart" means? xD Row 29; Column K-P in your spreadsheet. 
I'd give Elkanah a moderate Korathi read for the spreadsheet analysis. Feels very genuine. 
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Groooaaann. Great. Someone or a lot of someones had found out about Dedan's diary and decided to grace the pyramid with their presence. I had hoped to finish searching this place for anything valuable before religious fools hoarded this place, but ehhh, wishful thinking. Pfft, a temple of Domi? Laughable. Dedan is a blind follower. You can almost say... he Dedan't know what he was doing, hah! Of course no one knew when they were swearing "Merciful Domi!" that they were praying to a god long dead. I mean, being cosmere aware, it's kind of obvious that Domi is short for Dominion, but you can't expect these people to know them. And of course, with Dominion's character, you'd want to beg for his mercy. You couldn't actually pray "Merciful Devo!", could you? That sounds lame. And it doesn't make sense because because Devotion is tender and kind. Surely she'd give your her mercy without asking for it. So what I'm thinking is... Devotion's followers became Korathi, and Dominion's followers became Derethi. Why is everyone swearing in Dominion's name? Nights if I know. And those weird, creepy Jeskeri - they're probably followers of Rayse. I don't know. Why am I even bothering with this? Oh right, because the pyramid is forging filled with them! Gah! Wouldn't let me finish my search in peace. Oh, well. It's time to socialize. 
My ma named me Aanalan (another couple of a's in the end and I'd be hated for blasphemy is Roshar, heh!). It's funny because she named me after the Aons Aan meaning Truth (which I'm absolutely not) and Ala meaning Handsome (which I.. won't deny if someone calls me, buuut it's debatable). Yeah, she definitely jinxed my life. Thanks ma! And what do I do? Why, I search the corners of Sel (yeah I haven't managed to get out of this place) for the deepest secrets of the cosme (and when I fail in that like I usually do, I'll at least have something valuable to sell). Please don't call me a treasure hunter, it sounds soooo boring. I call myself...Cosmerologist. Ehh, I keep working on the name. I'll get it right some day. 
Sigh. I think that's it. Now I have to mingle with these people and pretend to be a believer. Sigh indeed. 

Edited July 29, 2020 by TJ Shade

[+Lotus]

21 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

It should sort of obvious by looking at Sart's content count that he's not a new player.

I mean, he could have done a different RP game and only came into Elimination recently. Or just be a avid theory poster.

TBH I almost never look at content count.

And yes, I should have noticed Elbereth’s post above mine, but that was over a week ago and I’ve had a lot on my plate. Signed up for this before I remembered I had some summer school classes. 
 

Liked your RP though! It’s great. Got to love those Roshar name-weirdness.