Quick Fix 46: Mysteries within Secrets

[Mat]

Here is promised analysis of Drake's posts for the entirety of the game. (Quotes of the full posts in spoiler boxes)

Spoiler

Merryn stirred, throwing off the covers of her bedroll and scrunching them up in the corner of her tent. 

It was warm, so the sun was probably up. She adjusted her blindfold to make sure it covered her eye sockets before leaving the tent. People were abuzz about something. Figured, considering the find they'd run into last night. Some kinda magic door if the locals were to be trusted. She wanted to believe it could be a way back home, but no, it wasn't practical. Probably just some dusty reliquary. Still, you never knew. Lotta weird magic hereabouts. 

Holding out her staff, a knotted and whittled piece of driftwood, she felt her way towards the campfire, accepting a bowl of porridge. It was surprisingly good; berries were her favorite. One of her companions appeared to have translated whatever writing was supposedly on the locked door. 

"I will open, if all ye be faithful." 

Huh. She wondered if it was real. Merryn didn't hold for any of that "multiple religions" nonsense. 

Whatever. She licked her bowl of porridge clean and found her way over to the door. 

"Does anyone wish to clarify what this is all about? It would be a shame to destroy what I've heard is a very pretty-looking door, but if there isn't another way forward couldn't we just knock it down." 

RP. Means nothing.

Spoiler

Now that RP is finished, game talk. 

The way I see it it's not really too different from a normal elimination game. We pretty much need to root out a smaller and better informed faction before we lose majority. The catch is that the faction that's killing us (Cultists) is not the faction we have to kill (Practitioners). That should definitely change how we do analysis, but I really don't think it changes our overall approach to the game that much. 

Which leads us into the other topic. Like loads of peeps have already said, I don't think Sart's plan is so great of an idea, and I have every intention of voting. If we don't use our lynch, we're effectively wagering that the Practitioners will all get wiped out on their own before we do, which is a bad wager since neither Practitioners nor Cultists want that to happen. 

However, I also don't think Jeskeri!Sart would have suggested it. As much as I think the proposal would make us lose, to me it feels more consistent with Sart's attempts to be proactive as a villager at the beginning of a game, and it seems a tad on the nose for a Practitioner to be suggesting it, since I would argue it would benefit the Practitioners moreso than anybody else. So I also kinda oppose lynching Sart. 

Tbh from the part of my brain that's still in elim-mode from last game, it kinda occurs village!Sart making a suggestion with backlash would provide a pretty good pretext for a mislynch. Kasimir, what do you think? 

I think the part about Sart probably is Drake trying to blend in, but him saying he doesn't think Jeskeri!Sart would've suggested it I think further supports the idea of Sart being a Jeskeri, as this was posted C1 where Jeskeri protecting Jeskeri was more in interest, though now it's looking more like he's actually a Cultist. The last part could be distancing, or Kasimir is just a Korathi.

Spoiler

Hm, considering the placement of your post, that's a valid point. Kasimir. 

Elkanah, consider yourself poked for the time being. Do you think the analysis/strategy is different for catching "Half-Villagers" 

The checks and balances in this game are delightfully complicated. One way or another, I am expecting the late game to be rather interesting. There are just so many possibilities    

But as far as I can tell, I think not voting does put us at a rather significant disadvantage: 

• The Jeskeri lynch will kill only Jeskeri. 

• The Cultist kill will target more Korathi to compensate. 

• So long as this lasts, Practitioners will only really be killed by the Jeskeri lynch, which will generally be controlled mainly by the Practitioners themselves. Since dead Practitioners is the Korathi win condition, this is not an optimal state of affairs. 

• The Cultists can only really afford to kill Practitioners if several more Korathi are dead than Practitioners (since unless I'm mistaken they need to wipe out the Korathi before the Practitioners in order to win), but since one Jeskeri of some kind will have died every cycle due to the Jeskeri lynch, that can only ever happen if most of the Jeskeri Cultists are dead and the Practitioners are already close to winning. 

• Best-case scenario, the stalemate continues and everybody's number's dwindle, but we still aren't really any better off than we started. 

Seeing as votes are happening, though, it might be a moot point. There's no voting minimum, and I will confess that I for one do not currently intend to end the cycle without a vote on somebody, it's probably best to proceed as if there's going to be a lynch today. 

More stuff on Sart's plan, I can't find any meaning. The poke on Elk I believe was before they posted.

Spoiler

I'm feelin a little behind on all the thread happenings and my brain won't work. 

But I can at least activate my tally script and get the lay of the land: 

Vote Tally 
Ashbringer (4): Elkanah, Illwei, Sart, The Young Pyromancer 
Illwei (4): Ashbringer, Gears, Matrim's Dice, DrakeMarshall 
Sart (2): Haelbarde, TJ Shade 
Matrim's_Dice (2): Kasimir, Young Bard 

Please tell me if this has mistakes. 

I don't really feel informed enough to decide which one is more suspicious, but I like ties. Very frequently gives us more to go off of. So Illwei it is. 

Also it looks like I was ninja'd by Matrim. With respect to your tally, I believe Sart's vote is still on Ashbringer. 

That's all now I gotta go catch up on the thread during rollover peace out. 

Vote tally, doesn't mean anything. Vote on Illwei could mean anything, if Illwei is Korathi than it wouldn't mean anything but if Illwei is Jeskeri that would be Drake making an attempt to find a Cultist.

Spoiler

Alright. I've been skimming a lot, but I think I'm more or less up to speed. 

TJ Shade Re: Village losscon. Sure we don't immediately lose after losing majority, I never said we did, but any "village-like" faction whose main strength is sheer numbers is basically screwed once it loses majority. Hence why our strategy still basically needs to be racing to kill an enemy faction before we lose majority. 

Speaking of which. With three factions and only 21 players, I don't think we have a bunch of leeway with mislynches. There should likely be a greater amount of non-Korathi compared to a regular elimination game, and I kind of don't think I'm seeing enough concern with respect to when we might lose control of our own lynch. 

With respect to last cycle's lynch, seeing as the tie stuck, I'm gonna soft trust Illwei, I think. I'm pretty sure the  

Being a somewhat weird faction game, I kinda doubt many Jeskeri would feel a need to strongly participate if the lynch was between two Korathi, which is what I suspect was the case. The Practitioners at least should have a motive to be focusing on a different lynch, and they are who we want to catch. 

So... Tentatively, I'm looking for either somebody who was around but didn't vote, or somebody who put a vote down but not on one of the main two lynch targets. The behavior that sticks out to me the most is probably Hael's vote. Hopefully setting aside from the fact that I disagreed with lynching Sart D1 and if anything I think the reasons to do so if anything diminished after another cycle, I would argue that most of the other players who were active were casting votes that had a fairly high impact on the lynch outcome. 

Domi willing, I will be doing a more full post-by-post reading soon. I've been relatively disengaged from the game's discussion so far, and I think it would probably be valid to suspect me for that, tbh, because I do think it probably fits a pattern of a lot of Jeskeri and I might be willing to extend a slight trust read on Kas for looking for those signs. Except that I kind of do think I have legitimate reasons to have been less active, because I had two final projects to do on Tuesday and two non-school projects that needed doing on Wednesday, and this game has 24 hour cycles. Regardless, I anticipate being able to focus on the game a bit more, now. 

Also, I'm inclined to slightly trust read Matrim just for general activity and participation I've seen from them in the thread. 

By the same logic, I really don't think this game would be a bad one for contribution crusading. We probably get more out of it than you do most games, because I estimate there's a higher likelihood of seeing teammates defend each other in a faction game, and I also suspect that although it can be easier to find suspicions for more active players that many of the players focusing a lot on the thread are villagers. 

I think that's everything. 

The second paragraph (the one after replying to TJ) says something similar to what Pyro said at the beginning of the cycle, I find that interesting. Drake trusts Illwei, with no explanation. Not sure why. Votes Hael, which I can't decipher because I don't know if Drake voted on other Jeskeri to try to find Cultists (Illwei, Hael) or Korathi to try to find the Korathi Cultist. Trusts Kas, also don't know why, though it could mean Kas is in the Jeskeri doc, though I agree with a lot of the things Kas said in his final post of C3. 

Don't like the part about trusting me. I can't see any reason he would've put that there, unless he figured he would die in the Jeskeri lynch and wanted to bring me down with him.  @Kasimir, not entirely sure what 'pocket' means, though if it's what I said above, then possibly.

Edit: Looked up 'pocketing' in the SE Lexicon. If that was what he was trying to do, it worked.

Spoiler

Uh, yeah. Meant to say I'm pretty sure the Jeskeri would've tried harder to protect you if you were Jeskeri. Not sure why that was missing. 

Roughly speaking, contribution crusading is when you go out of your way to lynch less active players and keep active ones alive, although there's probably someone around here who's better at explaining it than me. 

To answer Kasimir's question, this post is why I initially dropped off Illwei, and part of why I trusted Drake. Now that he's flipped JP I'm not sure, though his flip-flop relation to Illwei seems Jeskeri-Jeskeri to me.

And that's all. TL;DR, he mostly trusted Kasimir and Illwei- some of my initial Jeskeri reads- and distrusted Hael, who I had as Null. Not as much in his posts as I thought, but that's fine.  I did decide I'm not as relaxed about Illwei after reading these.

Probably won't post for awhile (xD yeah right) unless I'm tagged.

Edited July 31, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

46 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Gah, it's probably just me and one or two other Korathi left. Looks like the game's mostly down to rooting out cultists before said Cultists kill the Korathi, then the remaining Practitioners.

There's definitely more Korathi than that. I initially guessed 13/5/2/1 for a current 7/2/2/1, and wouldn't expect the number of Jeskeri to be any higher than 11/6/3/1 which would mean 5/3/3/1 now. Again, killing Cultists doesn't actually help us win, and no matter how many Practitioners die to the doc vote, we can't win unless the main Inquisition hits at least one Practitioner.

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm sorry, was I supposed to lie down and get lynched? Ash voted to save himself, too.

That's why your vote on someone you had a Cultist read on was different than Pyro's, he had an option to vote for someone else while you had much less of a choice. Hael only had one vote. Possibly TJ would have switched back to Matrim and maybe that would have worked, I think I would have voted for Matrim had that been an option, but you couldn't know that for sure.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Note that I said that drake might be a Practitioner right before rollover. If I knew he was going to die, that would be really late and clumsy distancing.

 

Thank you for clearing up the numbers there.

[---]

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

To answer Kasimir's question, this post is why I initially dropped off Illwei, and part of why I trusted Drake. Now that he's flipped JP I'm not sure, though his flip-flop relation to Illwei seems Jeskeri-Jeskeri to me.

I don't see why he would vote on me If I was JP? Unless he thought I was a cultist. So I initially had the idea that maybe Drake thought that  I or Ash was (were?) the Korathi Cultist and was trying to see if there were any last minute people taking their vote off or placing a vote somewhere else.

--
So I did basically this same thing my first game where I don't vote because I don't even know where to start on figuring out who's elim, (let's forget the fact that many people have given me place to start with analysisis...I guess) but I guess...

Silber, Bard, Mist, and Striker all have three or less posts - I know less posting doesn't equal elim, but idk I have no other ideas on where to start. (I could look at who Drake interacted with but that would...kinda...lead to me?) I was trying to see if anyone has talked a bit but not really said much (*couch* me *couch*) because I got that feeling from Devotary but I think they say things? I have no reason that I can see to distrust them so I guess it's just a me thing? I'm not really a "trust somebody until they give me a reason not to" kind of person though, and I don't know if I should be. I don't think that Pyro is elim. I just- everyone has said their reasons. I just, Maybe he is an elim and his chaoticy-ness just makes us think "Oh, that's just Pyro! Good old Pyro! using chaotic methods to try and figure out who knows what!"

I don't think Matrim is evil, unless they are and think I'm the Korathi Cultist, because i mean, I didn't love them trying to get me killed, but I...I think I was acting pretty suspicious. I mean, not for the things they were focused on I don't feel, but suspicious nonetheless.

6 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

If I knew he was going to die, that would be really late and clumsy distancing

I mean, you might not have known he was going to die? The JP votes are anonymous so for all we know the JP's could have agreed on not voting or maybe they had different targets, so all the JC had to do was vote on the same person and not tell people who they were voting for. I guess that would kinda reveal themselves in the doc though so maybe not.

 

P.S. - Reading back through I saw that someone said they thought I was more helpful in LG67 so I think I'm going to take that...as a...compliment.... ...
P.P.S. - in the lead we have Matrim with over 40 posts 

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by Illwei

[The Young Pyromancer]

38 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I mean, you might not have known he was going to die? The JP votes are anonymous so for all we know the JP's could have agreed on not voting or maybe they had different targets, so all the JC had to do was vote on the same person and not tell people who they were voting for. I guess that would kinda reveal themselves in the doc though so maybe not.

Yes, but as it's exposed next turn, I'd assume people say who they're voting for in the doc, or at least discuss it so a person could generally read where the votes were trending.

[StrikerEZ]

I'm really sorry about not getting on last cycle, and only showing up now. I wasn't having a good day yesterday, and I've been working for most of today. I'm honestly completely lost at this point. Does anyone think they could fill me in on what's going on? In here or PMs, I don't really care.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I'm really sorry about not getting on last cycle, and only showing up now. I wasn't having a good day yesterday, and I've been working for most of today. I'm honestly completely lost at this point. Does anyone think they could fill me in on what's going on? In here or PMs, I don't really care.

I will. In the form of RP! Though for your benefit I'll use the display names as opposed to the RP names.  

---

Dasehe took out a quill and ink, and a fresh sheet of paper from her bag and spread it out on the dirt, preparing to write. A member of the party, who only called themselves EZ- a ridiculously hard name to pronounce, without any proper aonic sounds- had requested a recap on the past few days, as they had been asleep under a tree for most of the events. Dasehe would've just told them- but they were back under the tree, asleep again. And while the possibility that EZ was a Jeskeri was real, that didn't mean Dasehe had to be unkind. 

A brief recap of the unfortunate events of the week, She wrote, then started the list. When she was finished, this was the result.

Day one: Temple door discovered. Does not open. An argument was started over how the Jeskeri might act, and Sart suggested a plan that was rebutted by everyone fairly quickly. Three people were killed: Straw, by the mysterious Cultists, Mint, by the mob, and Lotus, by unknown causes, possibly the Jeskeri. The first two were our fellow Korathi, the latter a Practitioner.

Day two: No advancement on the temple door. More argument. Charges leveled against myself for starting the suspicion on Mint- didn't go anywhere. A tie was made on Illwei and Ashbringer, the first of whom I still suspect is a Practitioner, but Ash was chosen and was a Korathi. More deaths followed, Xino, a Practitioner, and Gears, another Korathi. Domi, save us!

Day three: More talk of Sart, and myself. I voiced initial suspicion on Kasimir, but by the end of the day that had almost entirely flipped. Vapor was decided to be slaughtered by the mob, and was yet another Korathi- our judgement continues to fail us. Drake was killed and was revealed to be a Practitioner, a large surprise, and TJ is now a dead Korathi. I would suggest examining Kasimir's writings, especially the one at the conclusion of yesterday, as there is a lot of good speculation there.

General consensus: Sart is a Cultist, but nearly nothing beyond that. I personally don't trust anyone. I cannot be sure anyone shares my beliefs. For you, that is something you will have to decide.

Yours truly, Dasehe

Many hopes of survival for us all, Domi bless you

When she was done, she folded the note and slipped it next to EZ as he slept soundly against the tree trunk. He would see it soon, his request filled. Dasehe finally felt she had done something right.

---

There, even if it isn't very good  and is sort of me-centered. Someone else could probably give you a better recap, though I tried. Complete game vote count listed here:

Spoiler

C1 Votes: 

Sart (1): Kasimir 

Elkanah (1): DrakeMarshall 

Ashbringer (3): Elkanah, Frozen Mint, TJ Shade 

Kasimir (1): Kasimir 

Lotus (1): TJ Shade 

Frozen Mint (5): Matrim’s Dice, Gears, Vapor, Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity 

Matrim’s Dice (1): Straw 

The Young Pyromancer (3): Haelbarde, Lotus, StrikerEZ 

TJ Shade (1): Ashbringer 

 

C2 Votes: 

Illwei (4): Matrim’s Dice, Gears, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall 

Matrim’s Dice (2): Young Bard, Kasimir 

Sart (3): Haelbarde, Vapor, TJ Shade 

Ashbringer (4): Elkanah, Illwei, The Young Pyromancer, Sart 

 

C3 Votes: 

Kasimir (2): Sart, Vapor 

Haelbarde (1): DrakeMarshall 

The Young Pyromancer (1): Kasimir 

Vapor (4): Haelbarde, TJ Shade, Kasimir, Matrim’s Dice 

StrikerEZ (2): Mist, Devotary of Spontaneity

 

[Sart]

Votes in the previous cycles, now color coordinated:

Spoiler

Cycle 1 Votes:
Mint (5): Ash, Devotary, Gears, Matrim, Vapor
Ash (3): Elk, Mint, TJ
Pyro (3): Hael, Lotus, Striker
Elk (1): Drake
Matrim (1): Straw
Straw (1): Sart
Kas (1): Kas

Cycle 2 Votes:
Illwei (4): Ash, Drake, Gears, Matrim
Ash (4): Elk, Illwei, Pyro, Sart
Sart (3): TJ, Vapor, Hael
Matrim (2): Bard, Kas

Cycle 3 Votes:
Vapor (4): Hael, Kas, Matrim, TJ
Striker (2): Devotary, Mist
Kas (2): Sart, Vapor
Hael (1): Drake

I'm still of the opinion that the Jeskeri Practitioners, in general, will not vote on other Jeskeri in the thread. I'm guessing they are using the doc to search for the Jeskeri Cultists, while using the main thread to hunt for the Korathi Cultist. With that in mind, that would theoretically clear Pyro, Elkanah, Illwei, and Hael. That leaves eight people as potential Jeskeri. I know that I am a Korathi, which brings the pool of suspects for me down to seven.

• Silberfarben: No votes, and no one votes on them. Might even die to the inactivity filter. Probably Korathi.
• Striker: Only one vote, and it's a Day 1 vote. He keeps playing the "I don't know what's happening" card, which is annoying. Mild Cultist read.
• Bard: Only one vote from Day 2. Also in danger of the inactivity filter. He's tunneling on Matrim, but it feels genuine. Mild Korathi read.
• Mist: Only one vote from Day 3. Votes on Striker for laying low and making a tie. Ties seem like a good thing to me, but reads as a new player. Mild Korathi read.
• Devotary: I always read Devotary as evil, but he reads as more frustrated than anything. Mild Cultist read.
• Matrim: Something is wrong here. I can't believe we didn't vote up any Jeskeri on Day 1 and Day 2. If Matrim is a Jeskeri, then the math checks. Mild Jeskeri read.
• Kasimir: I still didn't get the point of voting himself. He didn't even RP it, and it got mostly ignored by the thread. Also suspects Matrim. My best guess for Kotathi Cultist

So, yeah. I suspect the most active people, while trusting the inactives. Whoops. I'm going to place a vote on Matrim's Dice. It would tell us a lot about the alignmen of Kasimir and Bard, while also helping to confirm my theory that we got one Jeskeri on Day 2.

[Mist]

Thanks Illwei. That's helpful information about post numbers. 

Haelbarde - Drake distrusted him. Sart vote two cycles ago was slightly suspicious. Slight suspicion. 
Kasimir - village for participation and post.
Devotary of Spontaneity - voted Mint over Ash and Pyro. Voted late on Striker. Mild trust.
Lord_Silberfarben - has posted with little contribution. You mentioned that maybe you'd do analysis. I'd love to see it. Null, which defaults to elim. Few posts.
Young Bard - filter-killed? Sus of Matrim C2. Null read leaning slight trust.
Matrim's Dice - KC suspicion. Possible KP. Rather active. Lots of content. 
Mist - I'm here. Yep.
StrikerEZ - suspicion, although they may get filter-killed. Trying to lie low? Nope, RL. Mild suspicion.
The Young Pyromancer - neutral leaning village. Playing chaotically, but that's normal. Lotus voted for them, probably not distancing. 
Sart - no-vote strategy suggestion. Mild Cultist read for that. Slight trust.
Illwei - likely not Cultist or trusted JP. Discusses who JPs would target with lynch. Responded to Lotus's question about Pyro. Drake voted on them. Neutral leaning suspicion.
Elkanah - Drake poked them: distancing? Filter-killed? Spreadsheet D1(?) Neutral leaning very slight village.

List in order of lynch preference: Illwei, Matrim, Striker, Hael, Bard, Silber, Elk, Pyro, Sart, Devotary, Kas.

2 hours ago, Sart said:

Votes in the previous cycles, now color coordinated:

  Hide contents

Cycle 1 Votes:
Mint (5): Ash, Devotary, Gears, Matrim, Vapor
Ash (3): Elk, Mint, TJ
Pyro (3): Hael, Lotus, Striker
Elk (1): Drake
Matrim (1): Straw
Straw (1): Sart
Kas (1): Kas

Cycle 2 Votes:
Illwei (4): Ash, Drake, Gears, Matrim
Ash (4): Elk, Illwei, Pyro, Sart
Sart (3): TJ, Vapor, Hael
Matrim (2): Bard, Kas

Cycle 3 Votes:
Vapor (4): Hael, Kas, Matrim, TJ
Striker (2): Devotary, Mist
Kas (2): Sart, Vapor
Hael (1): Drake

I'm still of the opinion that the Jeskeri Practitioners, in general, will not vote on other Jeskeri in the thread. I'm guessing they are using the doc to search for the Jeskeri Cultists, while using the main thread to hunt for the Korathi Cultist. With that in mind, that would theoretically clear Pyro, Elkanah, Illwei, and Hael. That leaves eight people as potential Jeskeri. I know that I am a Korathi, which brings the pool of suspects for me down to seven.

• Silberfarben: No votes, and no one votes on them. Might even die to the inactivity filter. Probably Korathi.
• Striker: Only one vote, and it's a Day 1 vote. He keeps playing the "I don't know what's happening" card, which is annoying. Mild Cultist read.
• Bard: Only one vote from Day 2. Also in danger of the inactivity filter. He's tunneling on Matrim, but it feels genuine. Mild Korathi read.
• Mist: Only one vote from Day 3. Votes on Striker for laying low and making a tie. Ties seem like a good thing to me, but reads as a new player. Mild Korathi read.
• Devotary: I always read Devotary as evil, but he reads as more frustrated than anything. Mild Cultist read.
• Matrim: Something is wrong here. I can't believe we didn't vote up any Jeskeri on Day 1 and Day 2. If Matrim is a Jeskeri, then the math checks. Mild Jeskeri read.
• Kasimir: I still didn't get the point of voting himself. He didn't even RP it, and it got mostly ignored by the thread. Also suspects Matrim. My best guess for Kotathi Cultist

So, yeah. I suspect the most active people, while trusting the inactives. Whoops. I'm going to place a vote on Matrim's Dice. It would tell us a lot about the alignmen of Kasimir and Bard, while also helping to confirm my theory that we got one Jeskeri on Day 2.

I was stating that he left a tie. I voted on him for the reason that he was laying low.

@Haelbarde @Lord_Silberfarben @Young Bard @Elkanah come post. You haven't this cycle.

Elk: Kas

Matrim: Sart

Illwei: Mist

Edited August 1, 2020 by Mist
Bolding vote

[Elbereth]

Announcement: due to completely forgetting that this game would still be happening on Saturday, I have a Thing during rollover. Fortunately, it ends when the new cycle would normally be posted, so it's not awful, but you can expect Cycle 5 to be delayed by at least half an hour. Thanks for your patience!

[---]

Mist

I don't to start off my post by saying "maybe I'm reading your post wrong", so I'll table that for later

1 hour ago, Mist said:

List in order of lynch preference: Illwei, Matrim, Striker, Hael, Bard, Silber, Elk, Pyro, Sart, Devotary, Kas.

 

1 hour ago, Mist said:

Illwei - likely not Cultist or trusted JP. Discusses who JPs would target with lynch. Responded to Lotus's question about Pyro. Drake voted on them. Neutral leaning suspicion.

I think it's interesting that you had nothing on me last cycle, but I mean, opinions change. 
I would like to bring up: that to look at me being JP based on the fact that Drake voted on me (I didn't seem to even be on your suspicion list beforehand) makes no sense to me, as another reasoning you have is that I speculated that JPs wouldn't vote on other JP, and I don't see why I would push so adamantly for that if I were trying to get JPs that I knew voted on other JPs lynched. if that very run on sentence makes any sense...

1 hour ago, Mist said:

Matrim's Dice - KC suspicion. Possible KP. Rather active. Lots of content

Matrim is listed as your second choice, but you suspect them of being the Korathi Cultist? that doesn't seem to make sense in my mind. Cultists are kinda scary but I think JP reads trump cultist reads in terms of lynch order

1 hour ago, Mist said:

StrikerEZ - suspicion, although they may get filter-killed. Trying to lie low? Nope, RL. Mild suspicion

1 hour ago, Mist said:

Haelbarde - Drake distrusted him. Sart vote two cycles ago was slightly suspicious. Slight suspicion. 

This one is pretty much me being nitpicky, but I'd like to know what specifically puts me as a better lynch target in your mind than people you list as finding more suspicious than me. Also Striker seems to be posting just enough to avoid the filter. They posted this turn, which means they have to go two cycles of not posting now to be filtered out. By then the game will probably be over though, so not lynching them and hoping for the filter to take them out just wont work.

Lastly 

1 hour ago, Mist said:

@Haelbarde @Lord_Silberfarben @Young Bard @Elkanah come post. You haven't this cycle

Every single time you post (which is only once per cycle) you tag everyone else who doesn't post a lot. I get that maybe your posts have more writing and might appear more helpful than others, but all I see is you restating things everyone else has posted plus a vote count. I don't really trust the people who post vote counts, as it feels like they are just posting that to appear as if they are being more helpful/have more to say then they actually do.

I thought you might be posting little because you might not have time or something, but you've been pretty consistently active on the Shard elsewhere 

 

...Of course, I may just be reading your post wrong :).

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by Illwei
Whoops

[Kasimir]

13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

There's definitely more Korathi than that. I initially guessed 13/5/2/1 for a current 7/2/2/1, and wouldn't expect the number of Jeskeri to be any higher than 11/6/3/1 which would mean 5/3/3/1 now. Again, killing Cultists doesn't actually help us win, and no matter how many Practitioners die to the doc vote, we can't win unless the main Inquisition hits at least one Practitioner.

That's why your vote on someone you had a Cultist read on was different than Pyro's, he had an option to vote for someone else while you had much less of a choice. Hael only had one vote. Possibly TJ would have switched back to Matrim and maybe that would have worked, I think I would have voted for Matrim had that been an option, but you couldn't know that for sure.

[OOC] What's the basis behind your distro guess? The 1/4 rule for Cultists? It's a nice guideline, I'm just curious about the underlying assumptions.

Quote

Win condition: You win when every Jeskeri Practitioner is dead. (This does not include Jeskeri Cultists.)

I've been so far taking it as the need to lynch Jeskeri, but I realise that nothing in the win con says we have to bring those deaths about. @Elbereth:

1. Does the Korathi win con include personally killing one Jeskeri? Or does it count if there is faction warfare? 
(Related to 1.) 2. You say "All win-cons are game ending." If the Cultists kill the last Jeskeri Practitioner, does the game end with a default Korathi and Jeskeri loss? This doesn't seem correct to me because neither the Cultists nor the Jeskeri would have fulfilled their win con. 

---

I am going to go back and do deeper analysis. At the moment, I want to highlight what TJ said about Lotus - yeah, I would agree that we could have seen opportunistic Lotus targeting, but importantly, we didn't, and the fact that Lotus was in fact targeted in doc should give us a notion that a number of Jeskeri are adopting the "Conceal, don't feel, don't let them know" approach. (I still wonder if the reason Lotus was voted on was backlash to opportunistic voting - Pyro?, or something in doc. However, I need to re-evaluate my suspicions to accommodate new information so...) Anyway, I'm going to do that analysis rather than wondering what else to say. Be back.

Edited to add [OOC] marker. What is RP...can you eat it...

Edited August 1, 2020 by Kasimir

[Coffeecat]

spent the whole day doing homework, will likely do the same tomorrow.

 

is that what they call weekends?

the week seems to continue, it never ends 

[Mat]

@Lord_Silberfarben... say something useful...  

I swear I get more lost every cycle. This is the first game I've played where I don't trust anyone. Kasimir is the closest, but even that's tentative because he was initially one of my greater suspicions, and my mind changed so quickly. I almost don't even want to try to vote, but I feel like that might cast more suspicion on me then whoever I vote for.

I know I said analyzing Drake's post made Illwei seem more JP to me, but... he put up some pretty solid defense against Mist. Defense that I agree with, which is sort of strange, but I also am realizing the possibility that Mist, a Jeskeri, hopped on my suspicion to get a mislynch going, though I haven't thought much about if that makes sense. So my vote will be there, at least until Mist replies again. 

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Elkanah]

Hi all, I'm sorry for my lapse in activity. I'm going to read last cycle and today's and get up some reads.

[Kasimir]

[OOC] #1. I'm keeping my vote on @Elkanah for the time being. I've seen you monitoring the previous cycle, I know you're there. If you don't post this cycle, El has confirmed you'll be dead, so I likely won't leave my vote on you, depending on how the lynch shapes up. I've done a re-read of the past cycles, and I'm still struck by how, like Drake, both indicated I might be looking for an easy lynch by voting on Sart in C1, and then proceed to ignore that Drake did the same thing by poking you and leaving that vote there. First, if I'm looking for an easy lynch, and that makes me vote Sart, how does that make me Jeskeri? A Jeskeri would be interested in voting Cultists. Funny enough, guess who doesn't care about easy lynches? A Cultist. So why are you voting for what is, in your eyes, a typical Cultist profile, hmm?

Second, - I've said this before, I know - if you mean I'm looking for an easy place to park my lynch vote, then I marvel that you don't think Drake leans Jeskeri for doing this. What could be an easier way to appear engaged with the game by poke-voting and just...not doing anything about it?  (I'm not looking to bring up the poke/stab vote debate here, mind.) What's even more interesting is that we now know that Drake was a Jeskeri. I submit it's perfectly consistent that a Jeskeri would overlook this in order to deliberately avoid having to say much about another Jeskeri, much less pushing them into the limelight.

Third - Tunneling on Ash could be due to lack of time and a desire to appear engaged. I do agree with TJ it's a strange move for a Jeskeri to make, given that Ash did end up being lynched, and that would have been a rather bad look for a Korathi. At the same time - you seem to have relatively slipped under the radar so far. I'm probably more or less the only rulo who thinks something isn't right about this. Moreover, let's take a look at the vote situation when you threw that vote on Ash. (I omit Ash's vote on Devotary and mine on Hael as they were not live by then.)

Quote

Illwei (2): Mat, Gears
Sart (2): TJ, Haelbarde
Ash (2): Sart, Elk
Drake (1): Kas<2>
Mat (1): Bard
TJ (1): Ash<2>
Hael (1): Kas<1>
Devotary (1): Ash<1>

Hael was the most recent voter. I bolded him, and I've linked the two posts for reference (Hael's and Elk's.) Illwei was leading (very slightly) in the lynch until Hael voted for Sart, tying things off. 22 minutes later, Elk votes for Ash, creating a three-way tie. The risks of killing a (now-)known Villager would not be that high. It's 1/3. And indeed, Illwei continued to save himself by throwing another vote on Ash twenty minutes later. That's not much of an inherently risky play, and I'm not sure I buy that it's necessarily a bad Jeskeri move. And if you do flip Jeskeri, then it's worth looking at the other trains. (Also: Another point in favour of the claim the Jeskeri might not be obviously mobilising the lynch - just as with TJ, no one jumped on my Drake vote, either.) 

#2: Just to recap, these are the people who stand to be dead by the end of this cycle if they do not post: Bard, Elk. (I've @ -ed them enough times, I'll give them a break and stop being obnoxious about it.) Of the initial pool, Devotary managed a post at the end of last cycle, Striker has showed up this cycle to ask for a tldr;, and Mist posted late last cycle as well. This has the potential to be less devastating a bloodbath than I'd feared at the end of the last cycle. Though it will really depend on what is going on.

#3: @Mist since you keep asking - it was bait. TJ figured out what I was doing and poked me in a PM over it. I haven't played SE games in a while but older players like Hael and Sart (well, normally) likely remember I have a history of self-voting at times. I had the peripheral voter profile in mind, and figured that doing something kayana like self-voting could be bait for an easy poke-vote that didn't budge. Just to see if anyone else was going to fit the Jeskeri profile. Unfortunately, no one bit. I guess no one wants to touch the kayana  

Still working on the reads. I intend to get them up without running too far into the cycle end. I do also want to interact with some of the ongoing discussion so I will do that in a bit. Need to get something RL done first.

[Mist]

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

Mist

I think it's interesting that you had nothing on me last cycle, but I mean, opinions change. 
I would like to bring up: that to look at me being JP based on the fact that Drake voted on me (I didn't seem to even be on your suspicion list beforehand) makes no sense to me, as another reasoning you have is that I speculated that JPs wouldn't vote on other JP, and I don't see why I would push so adamantly for that if I were trying to get JPs that I knew voted on other JPs lynched. 

Matrim is listed as your second choice, but you suspect them of being the Korathi Cultist? that doesn't seem to make sense in my mind. Cultists are kinda scary but I think JP reads trump cultist reads in terms of lynch order

This one is pretty much me being nitpicky, but I'd like to know what specifically puts me as a better lynch target in your mind than people you list as finding more suspicious than me. Also Striker seems to be posting just enough to avoid the filter. They posted this turn, which means they have to go two cycles of not posting now to be filtered out. By then the game will probably be over though, so not lynching them and hoping for the filter to take them out just wont work.

I thought you might be posting little because you might not have time or something, but you've been pretty consistently active on the Shard elsewhere 

SE posts do take more time. I'm not sure what Matrim is. You have a point.

56 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Lord_Silberfarben... say something useful...  

I swear I get more lost every cycle. This is the first game I've played where I don't trust anyone. Kasimir is the closest, but even that's tentative because he was initially one of my greater suspicions, and my mind changed so quickly. I almost don't even want to try to vote, but I feel like that might cast more suspicion on me then whoever I vote for.

I know I said analyzing Drake's post made Illwei seem more JP to me, but... he put up some pretty solid defense against Mist. Defense that I agree with, which is sort of strange, but I also am realizing the possibility that Mist, a Jeskeri, hopped on my suspicion to get a mislynch going, though I haven't thought much about if that makes sense. So my vote will be there, at least until Mist replies again. 

 

I agree with the start. 

Did Drake mention me at all in his posts?

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC] #1. I'm keeping my vote on @Elkanah for the time being. I've seen you monitoring the previous cycle, I know you're there. If you don't post this cycle, El has confirmed you'll be dead, so I likely won't leave my vote on you, depending on how the lynch shapes up. I've done a re-read of the past cycles, and I'm still struck by how, like Drake, both indicated I might be looking for an easy lynch by voting on Sart in C1, and then proceed to ignore that Drake did the same thing by poking you and leaving that vote there. First, if I'm looking for an easy lynch, and that makes me vote Sart, how does that make me Jeskeri? A Jeskeri would be interested in voting Cultists. Funny enough, guess who doesn't care about easy lynches? A Cultist. So why are you voting for what is, in your eyes, a typical Cultist profile, hmm?

#3: @Mist since you keep asking - it was bait. TJ figured out what I was doing and poked me in a PM over it. I haven't played SE games in a while but older players like Hael and Sart (well, normally) likely remember I have a history of self-voting at times. I had the peripheral voter profile in mind, and figured that doing something kayana like self-voting could be bait for an easy poke-vote that didn't budge. Just to see if anyone else was going to fit the Jeskeri profile. Unfortunately, no one bit. I guess no one wants to touch the kayana  

Still working on the reads. I intend to get them up without running too far into the cycle end. I do also want to interact with some of the ongoing discussion so I will do that in a bit. Need to get something RL done first.

Elkanah posted. Thanks for the explanation.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Mist said:

SE posts do take more time. I'm not sure what Matrim is. You have a point.

I agree with the start. 

Did Drake mention me at all in his posts?

Elkanah posted. Thanks for the explanation.

Ah yeah. Spent too long nursing the post. Then I have even more reason to keep my vote where it is.

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Mist said:

Did Drake mention me at all in his posts?

No

[Young Bard]

OK, I'm here, and thoroughly confused. Sorry for not posting last cycle - again, a combination of IRL stuff and then general tiredness prevented me from posting.

I can see a lynch on Mist - changing their beliefs like that from one cycle to the next without any clear reason could be a sign of a Jeskeri just pretending to have actual reads instead of anything real and then not keeping their story straight. The fact that Matrim is also voting on Mist is making me a little nervous and paranoid, but even if Mist does flip village, it could still provide useful information on the alignments of Illwei and Matrim, so there's that, I suppose.

If anyone else besides Sart wants to vote on Matrim before I go to bed soonish, though, I'd swap my vote to them.)

[Elkanah]

Ok, I'm going to respond to posts about me and then I will work on reads of others

@Kasimir

Quote

Elkanah: Earned Korathi street cred in people's eyes for posting one spreadsheet. I'm just going to come out and say it because I'll be too dead to care: folks, that's good, yeah, but Jeskeri have an incentive to analyse as well... Moreover, for someone who is ostensibly following the game closely enough to actually have a spreadsheet of analysis tracking posts, why has Elkanah been so inflexible about his suspicions, and thus so peripheral to major discussions? He's got exactly one vote across two cycles. (Well, two votes. On. The. Same. Person.) I note again that Jeskeri and Cultists both already know everyone's alignment. The Jeskeri know who is Jeskeri and Korathi (minus the Cultists), and the Cultists know everything. The fact that Elkanah is seemingly so engaged and so peripheral and so overlooked at the same time, IMO, should be a warning sign. What are your new suspicions, Elkanah, now that Ash is dead? Why that narrow focus on Ash in the first place? Suspicious.

I regret not being able to keep that up. My spreadsheet still looks just like it did, but it took four hours to get it to that point and that was only half a cycle worth of posts. The cycles are having fewer posts now that we have fewer players, but every time I come back I get overwhelmed by the thought that I really should catch up on that. I'm afraid I'm not going to. I'll stick to the more traditional way of accusing people in paragraph format. 

That is a fair argument about being inflexible on the Ashbringer lynch. I wanted to come back with better reads, but I didn't follow through. I went back to voting on him for the second cycle because I didn't like the swing at the end of the cycle. It felt like eliminators trying to protect their own. I realize the JP's don't actually have incentive to protect each other but they haven't really had a problem with lynching us either.

Upon reading this the first time I thought I understood what you meant by peripheral, but maybe I don't. I voted for the second place person in cycle 1 and the lynch target in cycle 2. I missed posting last cycle and didn't vote, but I feel like was doing all right for the first little while with giving reads and drawing lines... Although, it looks like I was very wrong about several of them.

Gut reads right now are 

Hael - I don't remember his posts. He must have made some to still be alive, but I'll have to get back to you.

Kas - Trying to solve the game. Despite voting for me feels genuine. slight trust

Devotary - Swung vote to Mint Cycle 1. That has really colored my reading. I currently suspect JP, but I need to check again.

Lord - Has only been checking in. Maybe a cultist trying to hide just under the inactivity filter.

Bard - Just ninja'd me. I haven't read it yet though.

Matrim - I seem to remember him disagreeing with my reads. With how wrong I have been maybe he knows something I don't. Slight distrust, but I'll go back and see if he was any more right than I was.

Mist - Has been decently active and trying to solve the game. slight trust.

Striker - Same as Lord Silberfarben

Pyro - Made an interesting gambit cycle 1. My leading guess at the KC. It might be best to lynch him as a way to slow down the cultists since we have yet to find one.

Sart - Suggested a plan cycle 1 that would have drastically altered the course of the game, then backed off of it. The backing off felt weird to me, but with that as the only data point he has done some good analysis. I want to say slight trust, but Kas has a good point that JPs can do good analysis too.

Illwei - Asked a really weird question C1, and has been a large part of the subsequent lynches. I'm still not sure which way to go. Was put up as the alternate lynch to Ashbringer, but that could be Korathi - Korathi.

So I suspect Devotary and Matrim of being JPs; and Lord Silberfarben and Pyromancer of being cultists.

Okay, I just read Bard's post and since I have at least a slight trust of Mist, I will vote Matrim's Dice.  

I've been working on this post for an hour so I'll post what I have so I don't lose it and start working on my next one.

 

EDIT 

I guess it wasn't a lot more I wanted to add to this thought.

19 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Elkanah, who do you suspect now? What do you make of the game?

I believe I have answered this now.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Ah yeah. Spent too long nursing the post. Then I have even more reason to keep my vote where it is.

Because I won't get filter killed? I guess that's fair. It looks like everyone except Hael has posted this cycle and he posted last cycle, so the filter is doing its job.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Elkanah

[Kasimir]

[OOC] (I'm OOC so much now I should just stop using the tag....) Current vote tallies:

Quote

Mist (3) : Illwei, Matrim, Bard
Matrim (2) : Sart, Elk
Illwei (1) : Mist
Elk (1) : Kasimir

 

This puts me in a very odd position because I am reconsidering my suspicion of Mat. Ultimately, I'd say it's a bit of a combination of "I need more information", discomfort with/the worry that I really am tunneling onto Mat, and the phenomenon of two of my suspicions (in different directions, mind) going on the Mat train. It can't be enough to say Jeskeri wouldn't interfere overtly in a lynch, because clearly, that's exactly what went down with Drake, who intervened to tie the Ash-Illwei lynch. What to make of that intervention is a headache and a half. Anyway.

IMO, it's hard making sense of such a move for a Jeskeri. Let's look at the possibilities logically:

[A] Korathi Ash, Korathi Illwei

The Jeskeri have been previously happy to leave close lynches be. Remember Cycle One? We had Striker throwing a late vote on the Pyro cluster, and Vapor, Ash, and Devotary acting to yank the lynch away from Pyro and Ash and to Frozen Mint. We now know that both Vapor and Ash are Korathi. I'd argue that the Pyro cluster being oddly competitive is striking (lmao) enough that regardless of whether Pyro is Korathi or not, it's worth taking a closer look at @StrikerEZ. Moreover, while Vapor and Ash are both known Korathi, where does that leave @Devotary of Spontaneity? (Still, that does tell us that tie-breakers in Cycle One have primarily been Korathi. In Cycle Three, the tiebreakers were Matrim and myself, and arguably, TJ started the shift with a second vote on Vapor. That leaves it being another predominantly Korathi shift.)

But then we had Cycle Two, where the Ash lynch and the Illwei lynch were super close. And that's where the trouble starts. Because this is our one known case where a Jeskeri intervened in a close lynch to enforce a tie. Suppose we stipulate that Ash and Illwei are both Korathi. What does Drake gain from forcing a tie? It can't have been to save Ash, because we know Ash is Korathi. And since this supposes that Illwei is Korathi, Drake would come under fire for tying the vote and killing off...another Korathi. Could it be because Drake had sought to pocket Ash and thus wanted to keep Ash alive? Possibly. Ash took Drake's side in the squabble with TJ over the Korathi wincon. To be sure, maybe Drake sought to connect himself and Illwei and draw suspicion to Illwei. It suits the Jeskeri if we mistake Korathi for Jeskeri after all. (Or maybe, as Pyro guessed, they've formed a temporary entete in their doc, in which case, they definitely want us suspecting/lynching Korathi. And I'd argue Drake is a player with a decent risk appetite, judging from what I've seen of him in MR43.)

One last possibility: Drake really did want to see if anyone saved Illwei, because he suspected Illwei of being the Korathi Cultist. And no one took the bait.

[B ] Korathi Ash, Jeskeri Illwei

But let's suppose Illwei is Jeskeri. In such a case, voting brought another Jeskeri into the lynch. This is something we've not actually seen happen so far. Cycle Three had the competing lynch trains on me and Vapor, with the lower-level Striker cluster. And Cycle Two did have competing lower-level clusters for Sart and Matrim. In this scenario, I would wager/wonder if Drake's being subsequently lynched on the next cycle was due to his stunt in putting Illwei on the lynch. (This was last minute enough - he intervened 9 minutes before cycle close, meaning he might have only faced meaningful backlash during Cycle Three.) This might also suggest that at least one player, Drake, has partially adopted the double-lynch strategy that Straw brought up on C1 and was opportunistically trying to stack Illwei for a second lynch.

But there's another possibility. Drake believed that Illwei was a Jeskeri Cultist and thought that creating a situation in which he baited someone to rescue Illwei might reveal if Illwei was a Cultist. Only: nothing came from it. No one blinked. And then Drake died.

I think the bottom line is that it's...not really easy to reconcile which of the possibilities makes more sense. I do think/suspect Drake was setting Illwei up for a Cultist test. But if so: why Illwei? And why not Sart? Well, partly because the dominant discourse, I suppose, placed Sart as a Cultist. And there's the whole dynamic TJ was referring to. I did go back through the Cycle 2 posts, though, and I would think that makes more sense to me. Unless Drake was just opportunistically trying his luck (also possible), nothing about Illwei's posts in particular scream Cultist, just someone trying to be peripheral and that defensive tone I've mentioned a few times. Which makes me think Drake could be working off info in the doc.

---

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

Upon reading this the first time I thought I understood what you meant by peripheral, but maybe I don't. I voted for the second place person in cycle 1 and the lynch target in cycle 2. I missed posting last cycle and didn't vote, but I feel like was doing all right for the first little while with giving reads and drawing lines... Although, it looks like I was very wrong about several of them.

Here's the issue. I've developed more reasons to be suspicious of you since end-C3, predominantly your interactions with a known Jeskeri and your voting and activity patterns. These have not been addressed.

Moreover, by peripheral - I mean that you appear engaged, but have had minimal impact or appearance in either the thread discussions or the lynch. You voted twice, both for Ash. In terms of activity framed as voting, that already sidelines you over the past three cycles. For comparison, Gears has exactly the same amount of involvement in the vote as you at this point in time, with more vote diversity and more engagement with the discussions. (@Elbereth, I'd just like to clarify: you last told me this in Oct last year, but we still can't share vote pattern visualisations, am I correct?) Your second Ash vote was cast early enough that I would argue it wasn't exactly wagon-forming and no one engaged with your reasons. Your spreadsheet post elicited responses, primarily from TJ and Ash, but that did not particularly go anywhere beyond that exchange with TJ and with Ash. I'd argue that's the perfect sweet spot for an informed minority to hide, and your interaction with Drake makes me suspect you lean Jeskeri.

Edited twice for formatting fail.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Kasimir

[StrikerEZ]

I think I'm going to vote for Mist. Their interactions with Illwei (who I'm somewhat trusting of currently) just gave me weird vibes. Especially the part where they claimed that JP wouldn't vote on other JP, then immediately suspected Illwei of being a JP for voting on Drake. It could just be a villager forgetting what they've argued for in the past (I know I've done that myself before), but it reads more like a JP looking for any reason to lynch someone that's not JP.

[Kasimir]

Anyway. Personal suspicions. I'll prepare this to be c&ped just in case. Someone may post while I'm taking forever to write this up. Someone might not. I just want to note that practically everyone who was on the lam for not posting at all posted. I will say it's more helpful when we can see more information (e.g. Elk  Don't say I only complain about you!) as compared to when we have someone who posts and just kind of says nothing and vanishes again.

Current Biggest Suspicions:

Spoiler

Elkanah: Reasons given twice in this cycle. I do appreciate a statement of your suspicions, but ultimately, I don't feel any better about Elk based off what he has said so far. @Elkanah What parts of Sart's analysis do you consider good and that you agree with? I would also like to highlight TJ Shade explicitly said he disagreed with your reads and he was Village. Is this same basis on which Mat is now considered slight JP and justifying your vote? I'm definitely inclined to think a bit better of Mat if you are indeed Jeskeri, which is my current guess.

StrikerEZ: See below.

 

Separate Category of Yeet:

Spoiler

Sart: I go back and forth about him, which is no good as I end up ignoring my own advice to yeet him and forget about him. The tldr; he seems to adopt talking points after they've become an issue in thread (see: Mat train really roared to the surface after past two cycles, and suddenly became mysteriously confused by my self-vote when this hadn't been an issue until Mist mentioned (twice) being confused by it. Given I've been known to do this sort of thing back in the distant LG-single-digit-to-20 past when we played, yeah, no, not buying it.) Hael mentions he now feels Sart might be Korathi, so there's that. 

Argument for Mat being Jeskeri is based on the claim we didn't get a Jeskeri on D1 and D2 which is categorically untrue even without bringing unknown alignments. Why? Because I voted for Drake on C2. And TJ voted for Lotus on C1. We just didn't keep our votes there because both were peripheral Jeskeri. It's also interesting that Sart asserts the Jeskeri must be active against evidence - such as the peripheral Jeskeri uncovered so far. (To be clear, I'm not saying it's impossible they can't be active - I'm saying that if you insist they can't be peripheral and use that as carte blanche to focus on the active players - cui bono? who benefits? Once again, I submit it benefits the Jeskeri, because the Korathi become disorganised, and low-activity or peripheral players will either not be following the game, or will be too infrequently active to control the lynch, and it benefits the Cultists for the same reasons.) Distrust. 

I was going to say more, but I urgently feel this needs to be addressed:

20 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think I'm going to vote for Mist. Their interactions with Illwei (who I'm somewhat trusting of currently) just gave me weird vibes. Especially the part where they claimed that JP wouldn't vote on other JP, then immediately suspected Illwei of being a JP for voting on Drake. It could just be a villager forgetting what they've argued for in the past (I know I've done that myself before), but it reads more like a JP looking for any reason to lynch someone that's not JP.

Hang on a second. Where did this happen?

12 hours ago, Mist said:

Illwei - likely not Cultist or trusted JP. Discusses who JPs would target with lynch. Responded to Lotus's question about Pyro. Drake voted on them. Neutral leaning suspicion.

Illwei never voted for Drake. I'm very certain of this. In fact, Mist said last cycle that Jeskeri could vote on Jeskeri for distancing. Why are you bandwagoning?

Edited to add: @Young Bard. What is your opinion of the lynch now? I see you watching the thread. (Right, folks, forgive my incomplete list.)

Edited August 1, 2020 by Kasimir

[StrikerEZ]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Anyway. Personal suspicions. I'll prepare this to be c&ped just in case. Someone may post while I'm taking forever to write this up. Someone might not. I just want to note that practically everyone who was on the lam for not posting at all posted. I will say it's more helpful when we can see more information (e.g. Elk  Don't say I only complain about you!) as compared to when we have someone who posts and just kind of says nothing and vanishes again.

Current Biggest Suspicions:

  Reveal hidden contents

Elkanah: Reasons given twice in this cycle. I do appreciate a statement of your suspicions, but ultimately, I don't feel any better about Elk based off what he has said so far. @Elkanah What parts of Sart's analysis do you consider good and that you agree with? I would also like to highlight TJ Shade explicitly said he disagreed with your reads and he was Village. Is this same basis on which Mat is now considered slight JP and justifying your vote? I'm definitely inclined to think a bit better of Mat if you are indeed Jeskeri, which is my current guess.

StrikerEZ: See below.

 

Separate Category of Yeet:

  Reveal hidden contents

Sart: I go back and forth about him, which is no good as I end up ignoring my own advice to yeet him and forget about him. The tldr; he seems to adopt talking points after they've become an issue in thread (see: Mat train really roared to the surface after past two cycles, and suddenly became mysteriously confused by my self-vote when this hadn't been an issue until Mist mentioned (twice) being confused by it. Given I've been known to do this sort of thing back in the distant LG-single-digit-to-20 past when we played, yeah, no, not buying it.) Hael mentions he now feels Sart might be Korathi, so there's that. 

Argument for Mat being Jeskeri is based on the claim we didn't get a Jeskeri on D1 and D2 which is categorically untrue even without bringing unknown alignments. Why? Because I voted for Drake on C2. And TJ voted for Lotus on C1. We just didn't keep our votes there because both were peripheral Jeskeri. It's also interesting that Sart asserts the Jeskeri must be active against evidence - such as the peripheral Jeskeri uncovered so far. (To be clear, I'm not saying it's impossible they can't be active - I'm saying that if you insist they can't be peripheral and use that as carte blanche to focus on the active players - cui bono? who benefits? Once again, I submit it benefits the Jeskeri, because the Korathi become disorganised, and low-activity or peripheral players will either not be following the game, or will be too infrequently active to control the lynch, and it benefits the Cultists for the same reasons.) Distrust. 

I was going to say more, but I urgently feel this needs to be addressed:

Hang on a second. Where did this happen?

Illwei never voted for Drake. I'm very certain of this. In fact, Mist said last cycle that Jeskeri could vote on Jeskeri for distancing. Why are you bandwagoning?

Sorry, I was typing that post in a rush and mixed up who voted for who. My point was that, no matter which of Illwei and Drake voted for who, if Mist is assuming they're both JP, why would they have also said JP wouldn't vote on each other?