340 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

[OOC] Okay. I was doing up some analysis, and have not finished, but:

@DrakeMarshall Drake, I'd still like to hear from you.

Quote

Remember, the Jeskerai doc is anonymous, and the Jeskerai kind of want to lynch themselves. I'm actually somewhat sus of you, as your pattern would fit you thinking I'm a Jeskerai Cultist, then looking at the doc and concluding that no one in it is trolly enough to be me.

Because I don't know what the vote is, I'll vote on Ash, as though I think they and Illwei have about decent odds of being Practitioners, there's a better chance of Ash than Illwei being Cultist due to how people are defending them. 

#1: Doc was announced in rules to be anonymous. Ignorance or deliberate distancing?

#2 and more importantly: if you think there is a better chance of Ash being a Cultist than Ilwei: why vote Ash? The Korathi win con involves Jeskeri Practitioners, not Cultists.

Found scratched into a cracked leather belt:

Quote

Do not trust Mancia.

Edited to add: Forgot to link. Here is Pyro's post.

Edited by Kasimir
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18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

#1: Doc was announced in rules to be anonymous. Ignorance or deliberate distancing?

You mean non-anonymous I think.

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7 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

You mean non-anonymous I think.

Urgh. Yeah. I was going for de-anonymised actually, but same difference :P 

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Wow only 25 posts.

i might even be able to analyze some more in the morrow.

 

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*insert Ewan McGregor's 'Visible Confusion' meme here* 

Well..at least the spec doc will now burst in size. :P 

Okayy, thoughts, thoughts, thoughts. 

I'll say this though. At least for the first cycle, we know for sure that JP weren't targeting other JP because my vote on Lotus came relatively early in the cycle, and stayed fairly late into the cycle. If they wanted to, they could have supported and contributed to lynching Lotus, and voting for someone else in their doc. But this didn't happen. Will they continue this trend into the further cycles now that 2 JPs are dead? Will they grow more desperate to find the Cultists that they are willing to double-kill, or will they be more cautious and continue the trend. Storms if I know. 

Coming to Sart, it's been established by general consensus that he has been given a Cultist read. But hasn't he been the target of the Jeskeri Inquisition? That the JP went for lynching player about to die anyway over a heavily rumored Cultist makes me believe - either Hael is right, and Sart has convinced everyone in the doc that he is going to act like a Cultist in-thread and be a good loyal JP in the doc; OR Sart is a Korathi, out of the reach of the Jeskeri Inquisition. The former implies he's either a JP acting like a JC in-thread to avoid the public lynch with major backing of other JPs; OR he's a JC having pocketed the entire JP. I'd like more opinion on which do you guys think is the case. I think the reveal of the current cycle's Jeskeri lynch might shed more light into the issue. 

Reads:

  • Hael - Mild non-JP, especially because his thoughts on Sart last cycle feels natural. Don't agree with Drake that he's fringe-voting. 
  • Kas - For someone taking the game casually, you sure seem a lot involved. :P Don't have a lot because Kas does seem like fringe-voting. But I agree with his reason for his vote on Matrim, and his general suspicion, or at least his reasoning behind them. Leaning non-JP.
  • Devotary - Unsure. Voting late and deciding the lynch rather than going for a tie is NAI for Devotary. But this game is weird, so she could have done to get village cred. @Devotary of Spontaneity, why no vote last cycle?
  • Lord Silber - Similar to LG 67. But I'm not sure why he would employ the same technique when he got suspected for it in the game. Leaning JP. @Lord_Silberfarben, I would like to see a vote from you this cycle. 
  • Young Bard - Nothing much to go on. Again, I agree with reasoning on Matrim, because I do feel something off about Matrim this game. But fringe vote and no vote in the first cycle makes me hesitate to give a non-JP read. Null.
  • Matrim - I'm really not sure what it is, but something about you is really ticking me off this game, Mat. From your posts, I do get a non-JP read, buuut I don't know. Something is off, and I really wish I could point it out. I also do not like your reason for voting on Mint, and your hesitancy to vote first this cycle in (what I'm assuming) fear of being followed. 
  • @Mist - I'd like to see a vote from you this cycle, if you're caught up with the thread. Null.
  • Striker - Leaning JP because of the reasoning for voting on Pyro. 
  • @The Young Pyromancer - You've said many times that your actions have reasoning behind them, and if asked, you'd be happy to provide them. I would like to know your thought process behind claiming a Cultist, because I'm not seeing the advantages from a Korathi POV. 
  • Drake - Thank you for clarifying that you did not mean to say we lose immediately on losing the majority. Though this could be damaged control after a slip, I'm willing to overlook it, since my vote was on C1 suspicion anyway. I agree with focusing on people voting outside the primary lynch targets. But other you haven't posted enough for me to give a non-JP read. Null. Vote on Illwei might be to get village cred if you knew the lynch was V-V (think Kas mentioned this as well). 
  • Vapor - Opportunistic voting in both cycles, which makes me suspicious. Willing to overlook C1 vote because you weren't there, but not C2 vote because you basically followed Hael's reasoning. 
  • Sart - See the above points. Could be of any alignment. Reserving judgment until after this cycle. 
  • Illwei - Sticking with my gut non-JP read
  • Elkanah - Going back  to his spreadsheet, he was wrong about Ashbringer, and Mint. Stuck with Ashbringer for two cycles, so not sure if a JP would do that. Reading as non-JP. 

So, out of 8 people to combine vote on Ashbringer and Mint in the first cycle, I believe at least one is JP. Voters whose alignment is unknown to me at this point is Elkanah, Devotary, Vapor and Matrim. Of those, I'm most suspicious of Matrim's Dice

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Posted (edited)

23 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Kas - For someone taking the game casually, you sure seem a lot involved. :P 

[OOC] This is why I was supposed to go back to RP playstyle! Or Kamemesir! Because I play and then people die (see: MR4 (I think?)) or Village is inactive or whatever, and then I feel guilty as hell and then I say, "Ah, Kas, you have a bit of spare time, why don't you stop doing NaNo for a while and just look at the votes a little bit."

And then the next thing I know, it's 3AM and I'm awake and nothing is clearer in my head and I have no NaNo progress. Sigh. Someone please save me from myself and my bad decisions :P 

Spoiler

tumblr_o16n2kBlpX1ta3qyvo1_1280.jpg

Edit: Oh drek sorry misformatted changed sorry RIP anyone on mobile sorry

Edited by Kasimir
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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Matrim - I'm really not sure what it is, but something about you is really ticking me off this game, Mat. From your posts, I do get a non-JP read, buuut I don't know. Something is off, and I really wish I could point it out. I also do not like your reason for voting on Mint, and your hesitancy to vote first this cycle in (what I'm assuming) fear of being followed.

I don't know what I'm doing different this game. :P Not completely sure why you're voting on me when you said you get a "non-JP read". Also, on Mint, it was relatively early C1. Is anyone going to have exceptionally good reasons for their very first vote of the game? I would think, as the initiator of the lynch, my reasons would be better than the ones of the 4 people who jumped on it in the last 10 minutes of the cycle. I didn't vote Illwei right off the bat because I wanted to see what he/others had to say- which now I'm glad I did, because some people have put up a decent defense of him, such as this:

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I'm pretty sure the Jeskeri would've tried harder to protect you if you were Jeskeri.

'You' being Illwei. I have a decent Korathi on Drake, and this is enough to get my vote off Illwei, at least for the moment. As for fear of being followed, it was more of a paranoia, but now that Gears was Cultist-killed that lessens some of that.

Now for some reads:

  • Haelbarde- I don't know with Hael. He hasn't posted much, the ones he has mainly giving votes. The thing about Pyro was accurate, though lying in PM's isn't necessarily AI. Null read
  • Kasimir- I've actually found myself disagreeing with most of Kasimir's reads, though the reasoning behind them is sound. Very Mild-JP gut read.
  • Devotary of Spontaneity- As per usual, Devotary is hard to read. But I'd say Null, with my initial suspicion and her good points being enough to balance the scale
  • TJ Shade- I have a tendency to read you as elim when you're village, and when I don't want to do that, it makes me wonder. I'll echo you when I say something feels different about you, meaning something almost feels Korathi. Almost. And I've always been wrong about you. Tentative Non-Korathi read
  • Lord_Silberfarben- I'm sorry, but I am not a fan of Silber's playstyle. Just popping occasionally, and not actually saying anything (which basically is the opposite of what I do :P) So with nothing to go on, Null read. I wouldn't say TJ's reason is enough for a JP, because that's Silber's playstyle in every game, not just the elim ones.
  • Young Bard- I have an instant gut JP read for their vote on me, but that isn't a very good reason, and that's the only thing I can recall them doing. Null read, @Young Bard, have your current suspicions changed from yesterday?
  • Mist- Hasn't really said anything. Null.
  • StrikerEZ- A strange pop-in vote on Mint C1, but that's pretty much it. I could see this being a JP move, but also not. Null.
  • The Young Pyromancer- Seems as chaotic and unreadable as always. Not sure what to make of his forgetting about the Jeskeri doc, but a gut Korathi read
  • DrakeMarshall- I have a gut good read on Drake, and like most of his reasoning, though I'm not sure of his vote on Hael. Slight Korathi read
  • Vapor- I think they have 2 posts total, both being pop-in votes that don't make much sense. Non-Korathi read
  • Sart- Where to begin. Initially he was my only Cultist read, but as the game has gone on, his actions have slowly seemed more village to me. I'll say Non-JP
  • Illwei- Decently strong JP read, though it's less strong now after the above Drake posts and his own.
  • Elkanah- I'll give Elk a Slight Korathi read for their analysis, though Ash flipped village and they were one of the strongest supporters of their lynch.

I seem to have a lot of Null reads. Shows you how much I understand this game. :P Though my JP reads are Kasimir and Illwei, I could see Young Bard, TJ, Vapor and Devotary possibly there as well, though obviously all of them can't be in terms of player number. I have no idea who the Cultists could be. I haven't thought about their potential strategies enough to decide that. 

RP to come later.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
Forgot Vapor :P
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1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

You've said many times that your actions have reasoning behind them, and if asked, you'd be happy to provide them. I would like to know your thought process behind claiming a Cultist, because I'm not seeing the advantages from a Korathi POV.

For one, I was claiming Korathi to a LOT of people, and no one was claiming Cultist. I wanted to not claim the same thing to everyone, not just for this game, but for later ones as well. You can see that by how I generally was honest in the LG, but lied to a couple people. This way, if all the PM interactions get revealed, I can point to the fact that the majority of my claims were honest, or convince others that I have a given role by the fact that the majority of the time, that's what I claimed.

Also, I had some ideas that were contingent on the docs being anonymous that obviously don't apply now. That was the reasoning I had that was more relevant to this particular game..

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC] Okay. I was doing up some analysis, and have not finished, but:

@DrakeMarshall Drake, I'd still like to hear from you.

#1: Doc was announced in rules to be anonymous. Ignorance or deliberate distancing?

#2 and more importantly: if you think there is a better chance of Ash being a Cultist than Ilwei: why vote Ash? The Korathi win con involves Jeskeri Practitioners, not Cultists.

Found scratched into a cracked leather belt:

Edited to add: Forgot to link. Here is Pyro's post.

I thought it was anonymous. @DrakeMarshall can assert the fact that I assumed the Practitioners would try to figure out each other's identities. I worded it a little more vaguely, but unless I planned this deception since C1, that's pretty good evidence that I'm a Korathi who made a mistake, or maybe a Korathi Cultist who made a mistake if you want to be like that.

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41 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:
  • TJ Shade- I have a tendency to read you as elim when you're village, and when I don't want to do that, it makes me wonder. I'll echo you when I say something feels different about you, meaning something almost feels Korathi. Almost. And I've always been wrong about you. Tentative Non-Korathi read

Wait, wait, hold on. So you're saying that you've read me as an elim whenever I'm villager, and you're reading me as Korathi right now, so since you think I'm opposite of what your reads are, I must be non-Korathi. But since that thought concludes with me as non-Korathi in your mind, then I must be opposite of that, a Korathi, right? :P 

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6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC] He might have been. I didn't mention it in-thread but El's clarification made me also look at those peripheral voters in my notes and to flag those with low thread activity. I was not interested in further pursuing it because that is kind of exploiting meta-reasoning about the GM and El doesn't like that :P 

Just me speculating further though it doesn't really help us so I should drop it, but storm it, I hate puzzles :P My thought was that: voting is secret for them, yeah? According to the rules, in the immediate cycle it is. The votes get revealed after that. So people wouldn't know if the lynch was redirected [in the sense of people organising a counterlynch to hit target B instead of target A] but targeting xino is just so strange that I have to wonder if people in the Jeskeri doc organised (whether by PM or whatever; Cultist doc?) to drive the lynch to xino instead of...whoever was being publicly suspected.

Xino's being active in the Jeskeri doc is immaterial, because doc activity as we have both cited, does not count to activity, and without a thread post, xino would have died to the filter anyway. Or maybe they decided to park the lynch on xino. Keine Ahnung. (Hmm. A belated thought: maybe they wanted to deny us the chance to do some vote analysis. After all, xino did and said nothing in thread, so we can't use the Jeskeri lynch results to help us make sense of what's going on.)

[OOC] Except that's not what I said. I said:

Let's put this back in the context of the debate (FWIW, remember I was trying to get this in at about 1 minute before the cycle ended and did not precisify my language as much as I wanted to. I also didn't get to engage with Gears about why I was not comfortable with the sudden vote-switch and felt that it was compatible with a Jeskeri or Cultist seeking Korathi cred!) You and Straw disagreed about whether the Jeskeri would try to mobilise the Korathi lynch to achieve a double-Inquisition that targeted Jeskeri.

So here's my question: who died to the Korathi Inquisition on Cycle One?

I'll link it for you, if you like. Mint. A Korathi. We even had a last minute vote wagon (which is normally sketchy as all heck and I'm still side-eying) slam down in favour of getting Mint killed. My argument is that you are not exactly wrong precisely because any weird last minute activity only shooed the lynch towards a Korathi! The issue is not what the Jeskeri did, it's what the Jeskeri didn't do. They didn't control the lynch and direct it to among themselves. The mere fact that we had a Korathi lynch is demonstrative of the fact that there was no Jeskeri control or that there was insufficient Jeskeri control. [Edited to add: Or that Jeskeri are trying to direct the Korathi lynch towards suspected cultists. As I said in a previous RP post, the problem is not what the possibilities are, our problem is figuring out which one is the most likely true.] I say 'not exactly wrong' precisely because we don't know (and didn't know then) about competing lynch trains, like Ash or Pyro. Yet whatever went down, whether the entire lynch was pure Korathi or not, our last minute actors dragged the lynch to a Korathi.

In fact, this cycle's results also shed light on last cycle's. Remember there was a competing lynch train for Ash in Cycle One? We now know Ash is also Korathi. Which tells me that our top two lynch trains (excluding Pyro) were not Jeskeri-targeting. This should imply that either: the Jeskeri are voting opportunistically (I still think this might be what happened with Lotus), or that they're hiding in the margins of the game. Or both. (Or I guess, a third option: that they're unenthusiastically participating in Korathi lynches just to appear engaged and involved as Villagers, even if they don't actually care.)

I don't know if that's what went down this cycle though, because of the Ilwei wagon. I disagree with @DrakeMarshall precisely because we haven't really seen Jeskeri targeting behaviour in the final lynch (re: Mint lynchtrain), though to be fair, that's last minute voting activity. Suppose Ilwei was JP. The Jeskeri would be happy with a 50% chance at lynching one of their own, knowing any last minute activity would be suspicious as hell. The thing is, the whole "no one saved Ilwei" thing is a bit sketchy to me, because that, if anything, would be Cultist activity. And we're not interested in cultists! We're looking for Jeskeri! That does make me side-eye you a little harder, Drake, even though I accept I'm probably also working off MR43 mindset here :P [Edited to add: The one case in which I can think of in which Ilwei is JP and gets saved from the lynch is if the JPs think Ilwei is likely JP rather than a Cultist. So, my question is: is this what you think should be happening here, therefore making Ilwei unlikely to be a JP? How do you have access to what the JPs think about Ilwei, hmm? :P ]

(And I used to belong to the old-school 'save your buddies' Eliminator school of thought, but I do know players like Elan and Tess are more hardcore about risktaking and throwing teammates to the bus-shaped wolves. So even that is no guarantee.)

I just woke up, so sue me, it's a public holiday, so Eid Mubarak to anyone celebrating :) I'm gonna do life stuff and come back later if I have time to do some analysis.

Also edited for formatting.

 

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

*insert Ewan McGregor's 'Visible Confusion' meme here* 

Well..at least the spec doc will now burst in size. :P 

Okayy, thoughts, thoughts, thoughts. 

I'll say this though. At least for the first cycle, we know for sure that JP weren't targeting other JP because my vote on Lotus came relatively early in the cycle, and stayed fairly late into the cycle. If they wanted to, they could have supported and contributed to lynching Lotus, and voting for someone else in their doc. But this didn't happen. Will they continue this trend into the further cycles now that 2 JPs are dead? Will they grow more desperate to find the Cultists that they are willing to double-kill, or will they be more cautious and continue the trend. Storms if I know. 

Coming to Sart, it's been established by general consensus that he has been given a Cultist read. But hasn't he been the target of the Jeskeri Inquisition? That the JP went for lynching player about to die anyway over a heavily rumored Cultist makes me believe - either Hael is right, and Sart has convinced everyone in the doc that he is going to act like a Cultist in-thread and be a good loyal JP in the doc; OR Sart is a Korathi, out of the reach of the Jeskeri Inquisition. The former implies he's either a JP acting like a JC in-thread to avoid the public lynch with major backing of other JPs; OR he's a JC having pocketed the entire JP. I'd like more opinion on which do you guys think is the case. I think the reveal of the current cycle's Jeskeri lynch might shed more light into the issue. 

Reads:

  • Hael - Mild non-JP, especially because his thoughts on Sart last cycle feels natural. Don't agree with Drake that he's fringe-voting. 
  • Kas - For someone taking the game casually, you sure seem a lot involved. :P Don't have a lot because Kas does seem like fringe-voting. But I agree with his reason for his vote on Matrim, and his general suspicion, or at least his reasoning behind them. Leaning non-JP.
  • Devotary - Unsure. Voting late and deciding the lynch rather than going for a tie is NAI for Devotary. But this game is weird, so she could have done to get village cred. @Devotary of Spontaneity, why no vote last cycle?
  • Lord Silber - Similar to LG 67. But I'm not sure why he would employ the same technique when he got suspected for it in the game. Leaning JP. @Lord_Silberfarben, I would like to see a vote from you this cycle. 
  • Young Bard - Nothing much to go on. Again, I agree with reasoning on Matrim, because I do feel something off about Matrim this game. But fringe vote and no vote in the first cycle makes me hesitate to give a non-JP read. Null.
  • Matrim - I'm really not sure what it is, but something about you is really ticking me off this game, Mat. From your posts, I do get a non-JP read, buuut I don't know. Something is off, and I really wish I could point it out. I also do not like your reason for voting on Mint, and your hesitancy to vote first this cycle in (what I'm assuming) fear of being followed. 
  • @Mist - I'd like to see a vote from you this cycle, if you're caught up with the thread. Null.
  • Striker - Leaning JP because of the reasoning for voting on Pyro. 
  • @The Young Pyromancer - You've said many times that your actions have reasoning behind them, and if asked, you'd be happy to provide them. I would like to know your thought process behind claiming a Cultist, because I'm not seeing the advantages from a Korathi POV. 
  • Drake - Thank you for clarifying that you did not mean to say we lose immediately on losing the majority. Though this could be damaged control after a slip, I'm willing to overlook it, since my vote was on C1 suspicion anyway. I agree with focusing on people voting outside the primary lynch targets. But other you haven't posted enough for me to give a non-JP read. Null. Vote on Illwei might be to get village cred if you knew the lynch was V-V (think Kas mentioned this as well). 
  • Vapor - Opportunistic voting in both cycles, which makes me suspicious. Willing to overlook C1 vote because you weren't there, but not C2 vote because you basically followed Hael's reasoning. 
  • Sart - See the above points. Could be of any alignment. Reserving judgment until after this cycle. 
  • Illwei - Sticking with my gut non-JP read
  • Elkanah - Going back  to his spreadsheet, he was wrong about Ashbringer, and Mint. Stuck with Ashbringer for two cycles, so not sure if a JP would do that. Reading as non-JP. 

So, out of 8 people to combine vote on Ashbringer and Mint in the first cycle, I believe at least one is JP. Voters whose alignment is unknown to me at this point is Elkanah, Devotary, Vapor and Matrim. Of those, I'm most suspicious of Matrim's Dice

 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't know what I'm doing different this game. :P Not completely sure why you're voting on me when you said you get a "non-JP read". Also, on Mint, it was relatively early C1. Is anyone going to have exceptionally good reasons for their very first vote of the game? I would think, as the initiator of the lynch, my reasons would be better than the ones of the 4 people who jumped on it in the last 10 minutes of the cycle. I didn't vote Illwei right off the bat because I wanted to see what he/others had to say- which now I'm glad I did, because some people have put up a decent defense of him, such as this:

'You' being Illwei. I have a decent Korathi on Drake, and this is enough to get my vote off Illwei, at least for the moment. As for fear of being followed, it was more of a paranoia, but now that Gears was Cultist-killed that lessens some of that.

Now for some reads:

  • Haelbarde- I don't know with Hael. He hasn't posted much, the ones he has mainly giving votes. The thing about Pyro was accurate, though lying in PM's isn't necessarily AI. Null read
  • Kasimir- I've actually found myself disagreeing with most of Kasimir's reads, though the reasoning behind them is sound. Very Mild-JP gut read.
  • Devotary of Spontaneity- As per usual, Devotary is hard to read. But I'd say Null, with my initial suspicion and her good points being enough to balance the scale
  • TJ Shade- I have a tendency to read you as elim when you're village, and when I don't want to do that, it makes me wonder. I'll echo you when I say something feels different about you, meaning something almost feels Korathi. Almost. And I've always been wrong about you. Tentative Non-Korathi read
  • Lord_Silberfarben- I'm sorry, but I am not a fan of Silber's playstyle. Just popping occasionally, and not actually saying anything (which basically is the opposite of what I do :P) So with nothing to go on, Null read. I wouldn't say TJ's reason is enough for a JP, because that's Silber's playstyle in every game, not just the elim ones.
  • Young Bard- I have an instant gut JP read for their vote on me, but that isn't a very good reason, and that's the only thing I can recall them doing. Null read, @Young Bard, have your current suspicions changed from yesterday?
  • Mist- Hasn't really said anything. Null.
  • StrikerEZ- A strange pop-in vote on Mint C1, but that's pretty much it. I could see this being a JP move, but also not. Null.
  • The Young Pyromancer- Seems as chaotic and unreadable as always. Not sure what to make of his forgetting about the Jeskeri doc, but a gut Korathi read
  • DrakeMarshall- I have a gut good read on Drake, and like most of his reasoning, though I'm not sure of his vote on Hael. Slight Korathi read
  • Vapor- I think they have 2 posts total, both being pop-in votes that don't make much sense. Non-Korathi read
  • Sart- Where to begin. Initially he was my only Cultist read, but as the game has gone on, his actions have slowly seemed more village to me. I'll say Non-JP
  • Illwei- Decently strong JP read, though it's less strong now after the above Drake posts and his own.
  • Elkanah- I'll give Elk a Slight Korathi read for their analysis, though Ash flipped village and they were one of the strongest supporters of their lynch.

I seem to have a lot of Null reads. Shows you how much I understand this game. :P Though my JP reads are Kasimir and Illwei, I could see Young Bard, TJ, Vapor and Devotary possibly there as well, though obviously all of them can't be in terms of player number. I have no idea who the Cultists could be. I haven't thought about their potential strategies enough to decide that. 

RP to come later.

Mostly from what I've seen Devotary and I have most suspicion on us. I have been really busy and most of the time am only able to get on at the start and end of cycles, where it's hard to vote without suspicion. I'm pretty low activity on this, so it's hard. I am mildly suspicious of Kasimir. Won't be able to get on till I'm back from the aquarium, and I'm not sure how long it will take. See you next cycle!

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19 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Wait, wait, hold on. So you're saying that you've read me as an elim whenever I'm villager, and you're reading me as Korathi right now, so since you think I'm opposite of what your reads are, I must be non-Korathi. But since that thought concludes with me as non-Korathi in your mind, then I must be opposite of that, a Korathi, right? :P 

I mean, that's not exactly what I meant :P But maybe? I just don't know with you.

And it looks like Vapor's back with another pop-in vote on who I just voted on! Probably doesn't have anything to do with me, but still something I notice. Hmm.

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Mm. I partially agree with Kasimir, but because I happen to know all of the three of the candidates were village, I'm not as sure about their conclusion.

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Posted (edited)

Think I might post some of my reads and go from there as far as putting a vote down:

  • Kas - Leaning Korathi, as I'm seeing exactly what I'd expect from a village!Kas who's just having a bit of fun writing excellent RP.
  • Devotary - A lot of their posts seem to be either clarifying details about other conversations or discussing how each faction might play. This all feels fairly normal Devotary. They didn't vote last cycle, and voted for Mint last minute during the first cycle. Not sure how I feel about that vote, given it was last minute, and unnecessary (Mint was already ahead by a vote). Feeling reserved, would prefer to see another vote from them this cycle, but not as last minute.
  • TJ - My gut has been leaning Korathi on TJ. His tone seems good, and I agree with the bulk of his reads. 
  • Silber - Very few posts. Last cycles seemed to be giving up on the game, though this cycles at least hints at a chance of some analysis from them. Neutral because they're nothing to read.
  • Bard
  • Matrim
  • Mist - Would like to seem more posts from them. 
  • Striker - Basically inactive
  • Pyro - I'm not sure that their explanations necessarily help, but I'm feeling more like they're a Korathi who's a little lost at this point. Ultimately neutral read.
  • Drake - Wants to kill me but I think that's mostly from a misreading of the situation last cycle. I wouldn't mind seeing their more detailed analysis. Probably leaning towards Korathi on them. 
  • Vapor - They've barely posted here, so nothing to really go by, although I'll note that they've been fairly active elsewhere on the shard. Maybe they are following the game, but more from a doc? Hmm. Also throwing another vote on Kas just now. They mention that they and Devotary seem to be under the most suspicion but I'm not sure where that comes from - not sure if either of them has recieved a vote this game?
  • Sart - Not entirely sure about them still, but I don't want to add another name to the lynch candidates this cycle, so maybe next cycle - as pointed out, could still be worth seeing if the Jeskeri take them out as a potential cultist, so we may at least learn something by waiting. To review next cycle.
  • Illwei - They seem pretty new and unsure of themselves. 
  • Elk

Vote Tally:

Illwei(0): Matrim{1}
Kas(3): Sart{1}, Matrim{2}, Vapor{1}
Hael(1): Drake{1}
Drake(0): Kas{1}
Pyro(1): Kas{2}
Matrim(1): TJ{1}
Vapor(1): Hael{1}

Kas(3): Sart, Matrim, Vapor
Hael(1): Drake
Pyro(1): Kas
Matrim(1): TJ
Vapor(1): Hael

It's getting late again, so seeing as I've actually reach a point where I'm suspicious of someone, I think I'm going to put a vote down on Vapor. Don't care for Kas lynch at all, and I'm not sure why they think they and Devotary are being seen as the most suspicious when neither of them have ended a cycle with a vote on them yet. I could see a practitioner who's mainly keeping up with the game in a doc and reading discussion about people's suspicion list getting that impression though.

I'll put up a read of Bard, Matrim, and Elk tomorrow - I don't have enough of a formed impression of them to put a read on them without properly rereading their posts. 

Edited by Haelbarde
Fixing vote tally
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Vapor might be following Matrim's lead as a more experienced teammate here. Look out for that.

Drake's not been doing much. Unless someone can attest to PMing them a lot, I'm inclined to think they might be in a doc at this point.

Posting reads in case I get killed, if Kas's idea of killing Korathi is correct. Think it might be, as if the Jeskerai just kill themselves, they lose to Korathi, and so the two factions are teaming up to take us down first. 

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2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Vapor might be following Matrim's lead as a more experienced teammate here. Look out for that.

Ummmm what? I'm the one concerned that people are following my votes :P 

50 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Mm. I partially agree with Kasimir, but because I happen to know all of the three of the candidates were village, I'm not as sure about their conclusion.

Also, can you clarify what this ^ means, because I have no idea.

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Right, I'm going to change my vote to Vapor

I was already suspicious of her (see my read post). And no reason was given as to why she was voting on Kas. Just that he's mildly suspicious. I waited to see if someone wants to vote on Matrim, but there's no support there, so I'm going to consolidate the votes a bit. 

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[OOC]Interesting. Well, so here goes, I'm going to post this before I sleep because rollover is at an awful time for me and I should stop staying up late -

Read this in event of my death (if I don't die don't read this part it's too embarrassing kthxbai)

Spoiler

I am a Korathi, and expect the lynch to reveal myself as such in under an hour. I'm going to dump all my suspicions and reads and thoughts here. I advocate suspicion of whoever who will attempt to sweep all my arguments under the table by saying "Confirmed good doesn't mean confirmed right." (I want to note the Eliminators in MR38 tried to do exactly that :P  I was wrong about the identities of some of them, but my analysis was right on other counts. Don't use that slogan to dismiss what I'm saying. I'm not saying I'm right. I'm asking you to look at my arguments/reasoning post-rollover with the knowledge of my alignment. To my fellow Korathi, other than your knowledge of your own alignment, you've had to parse what people are saying through consideration of what their motives are. Once I am dead, you will be able to file my motives under 'good and loyal Korathi', allowing you to parse my reasoning without having to worry about whether I'm manipulating you.)

Read this part regardless of whether or not I am dead, thanks:

Voting Analysis: A Framework:

First, I did more voting analysis, incorporating the results of the past cycle. As mentioned previously, I am looking for several types of voting profiles:

 

Spoiler
  • First, is the voting cluster isolated from the main cluster? As I've said before, a voting cluster that is distinct from the debates taking part in the thread, has seemingly flimsy reasoning, and has apparently materialised from nowhere could be a sign that it is the manifestation of a debate/suspicion that is taking place in a separate doc (i.e. Jeskeri.)
     
  • Second, are there individual voters who have been oddly peripheral to the lynch? This could be because of inactivity or low activity, or simply (as in my previous point) because they are members of an isolated cluster. In my eyes, this should be a [Note: a, not the! Jeskeri may behave in ways other than this!] Jeskeri profile, because the Jeskeri are not invested in the lynch. Such voters may see their job as avoiding suspicion by appearing helpful but not getting further involved in bad (i.e. Korathi-targeting) lynches. Remember - they may not know who the Cultists are, but they do know who the Jeskeri are. This voter profile may not want to overly implicate themselves in a Korathi lynch, and then get side-eyed both by their comrades in the Jeskeri doc (for acting potentially like a cultist) as well as by Korathi.
     
  • Third, are there individual voters who have been oddly narrow in their suspicions (and especially their votes)? Recall that Jeskeri already know who the Jeskeri are. In that sense, the Korathi-Jeskeri dynamic will be that of an uninformed majority to an informed minority - the twist is that the Jeskeri don't really need to kill us to win, just the Cultists. But where the Korathi lynch is concerned, the Jeskeri voter (just like the Cultist) already knows what the answer is going to be
     
  • Fourth, are there individual voters who demonstrate odd voting patterns, such as voting for those they mention are likely to be Cultists (a Jeskeri priority!) or for instance, who vote based on poor reasoning, or against their own reasoning? Does the reasoning backing the vote appear to have been forced in order to allow the vote? 

Voters who meet these profiles, I contend, may not be necessarily Jeskeri. Sometimes, they could be a Cultist. Or they could be a Korathi playing differently. But I contend that this framework is a good place to begin in terms of gleaning suspect pools from vote analysis. 

Results of Voting Analysis:

Here are my results:

Spoiler

I stress again that my use of broad profiles is a way of pointing to whom to look at in specific voting and lynch discussion contexts. They are not about positively IDing the Jeskeri. We have to do further analytical work from there.

Reads and Suspicions:

I am obviously suspicious of the sudden train forming up my myself, especially given a few people I'm suspicious of are involved in it. I'm going to highlight why I think these people are suspicious. I advocate in particular the lynch of Matrim's Dice, or Pyro, though I am also suspicious of several others.

Kas's Top Suspicions:

Spoiler
  • Pyro: Implicated in the Lotus cluster. Lotus was swift to pile a vote on Pyro after Hael did. I suspect Lotus saw a chance to stack a vote on a fellow Jeskeri and did so. This may also have been why Lotus was lynched by the Jeskeri Inquisition. I do find Pyro's claim that the Jeskeri doc is anonymous to be potential distancing - but this is not the main reason I am suspicious of Pyro. Pyro's response to my suspicions was to explain why he thought the doc was anonymous and to drag Drake along with him. As I have outlined in my main issue with Pyro, Pyro stated that, "though I think they and Illwei have about decent odds of being Practitioners, there's a better chance of Ash than Illwei being Cultist due to how people are defending them."

    So let me get this straight. You think Ash is more likely to be a Cultist, you claim to not know what the state of the votes is (irrelevant) and then you vote for Ash. This one cycle after TJ, Ash, and Drake (whose statements you clearly seem to be following) have picked a huge fight involving a mudpit and what the Korathi wincon is, with an assist from Straw. I think it understandable at the start of the game if Korathi are confused about their wincon. Hell, I have difficulty parsing the interactions myself and I am Korathi. By Cycle Two, this makes no sense. And by any metric, saying, "Ash and Illwei are both likely to be practitioners but I'm going to vote Ash because he's more likely to be a cultist" makes zero sense whatsoever for a Korathi. Yeah, no. I'm not convinced.


    What are your suspicions? Unclear. Are you trying to solve the game? Unclear. High Jeskeri suspicion.
     
  • Matrim's Dice: Identified because of odd voting patterns with little shift. For someone who is highly involved in the thread, you'd think his suspicions, and this his voting, would shift, but it doesn't. He slaps down one vote per cycle, tunnels, and then stays there. This, I'd argue, could be a Cultist profile or a Jeskeri profile. Highlights the weirdness of things ("Vapor/People following my votes") or ("I'm concerned everyone piled onto Mint" right before the lynch ended), but with little activity to show for it. If Vapor following your votes is weird, why do you just lampshade it and leave if there if you are Korathi? Shouldn't this be more concerning? Why do your votes not shift? Why do you not seem to be engaged with the game except on the surface level? I still maintain his response to the Mint lynch seemed more consistent with someone who knew how the lynch would end up. Suspicious.
     
  • Elkanah: Earned Korathi street cred in people's eyes for posting one spreadsheet. I'm just going to come out and say it because I'll be too dead to care: folks, that's good, yeah, but Jeskeri have an incentive to analyse as well... Moreover, for someone who is ostensibly following the game closely enough to actually have a spreadsheet of analysis tracking posts, why has Elkanah been so inflexible about his suspicions, and thus so peripheral to major discussions? He's got exactly one vote across two cycles. (Well, two votes. On. The. Same. Person.) I note again that Jeskeri and Cultists both already know everyone's alignment. The Jeskeri know who is Jeskeri and Korathi (minus the Cultists), and the Cultists know everything. The fact that Elkanah is seemingly so engaged and so peripheral and so overlooked at the same time, IMO, should be a warning sign. What are your new suspicions, Elkanah, now that Ash is dead? Why that narrow focus on Ash in the first place? Suspicious.

Weaker Suspicions/Inconsistencies:

Spoiler
  • Vapor: Peripherally involved, likely following votes (specifically: Hael's and Matrim's.) No idea about why she votes the way she does. Could be busy and disengaged player. (Has mentioned this.) Could be non-Korathi jumping on convenient wagons. (If non-Korathi, why not say she doesn't have the time and just not show up? Beats having to make suspicious-seeming votes.) Behaviour is odd though, and the voting seems forced/alignment-motivated. (Basically: if you're following onto lynchwagons, why certain wagons over others? Mild Cultist/JP suspicion, not enough info to tell which. (I suggest Cultist because I'm Korathi, no reason for Jeskeri to target me unless they believe I'm a Korathi Cultist?)
     
  • Drake: I go back and forth about Drake. I think he's peripherally involved, so another one who fits a Jeskeri voting profile, and I don't fully like the rigid implications of fringe-voting (since it implies then that we should bandwagon, which, hello, isn't much better. I'd like to think there's a distinction between players who fringe vote and players who at least get involved in other debates. Those I have identified as fringe voting are typically disengaged as well in discussion!) I feel that the fringe-voting perspective actually fits very well with a Cultist or Jeskeri in-thread because more bandwagons = more places to hide. Also, again - narrowing suspicions doesn't help Korathi at all. There's a distinction between narrow engagement and fringe voting. We don't just want to catch fringe voters, we specifically are looking at fringe voters who aren't interested in the thread discussion.

    At the same time, Drake has said he's busy, and I get that too. And I absolutely agree with him that losing the majority is not a good position to be in for Korathi lynch control, and we'll probably only know once the lynch starts picking up more Jeskeri. (Incidentally: Cultists, you may want to consider helping us out a bit here. If someone suddenly gets better at picking out Jeskeri, the Jeskeri are likely to suspect they're the Korathi Cultist. Our interests do overlap a bit :P )
     
  • Hael: Suspicious of his reasoning for the Pyro vote, which I think represents a shift from C1 (in which he says the interaction with Pyro "felt off") to C2 (in which it's no longer gut, but Pyro lying that sets him off.) I am also mildly suspicious of Hael's involvement in the Pyro cluster (though given he put down the first vote, so okay, mild suspicion only) - and in the Sart voting from last cycle. Also, Vapor explicitly followed onto Sart vote, and Vapor isn't exactly unsuspicious either. At the same time, given the JP/JC debate over Sart, and my own views, I can see reason to just yeet Sart. So yeah. Seems to be getting more involved in the game - either mild suspicion on the Jeskeri front, or no read.
     
  • Illwei: (Sorry kept spelling your username wrong.) Boils down to: what are your suspicions? Unclear. Very much peripheral in the discussions, plus, reads strongly defeated/defensive in responses to challenge last cycle. (Aside: Matrim's veering off Illwei: possibly due to backlash in Jeskeri doc?) In favour of Illwei, Drake is not incorrect to note that no one tried to save Illwei, but I think that is not itself indicative depending on the risk appetite of the teams in question. Mild suspicion.
     
  • Striker: Minimally involved. Suspicion because of involvement in Pyro cluster. (Stronger suspicion if Pyro flips Jeskeri.) [Note: If Striker does not post in thread at the end of next cycle, he will likely be filter-killed ( @Elbereth, I'm sorry, I know I'm asking thrice, but can you confirm this? :P )]
     
  • Bard: Minimally involved. Mild suspicion because peripheral. Has not come back with whatever about Mat is bothering him :P [Note: If Bard does not post in thread at the end of next cycle, he will likely be filter-killed ( @Elbereth, can you confirm this?) ]
     
  • Lord Silberfarben: Minimally involved. Mild suspicion because peripheral.
     
  • Mist: Minimally involved. Attempted some analysis but did not vote. Mild suspicion because peripheral, but I do know Mist is busy (as mentioned), so mild. Also: we just need to know a lot of the reasons behind Mist's claims/reads. [Note: if Mist does not post in thread at the end of next cycle, she will likely be filter-killed. Again, @Elbereth, possible to confirm?]

Tentative Trusts:

Spoiler
  • TJ: My gut says the brawl between Ash and TJ was so minute that it's likely to be a Villager-on-Villager slapfight. But that's just my gut. I don't super trust TJ so it's tentative. Good point about the Sart situation. Plus, you did highlight Lotus, so...
     
  • Devotary: Reasons have not changed. Relevant point on Cultists. Very weak trust. Minimal today, and I need to deep-analyse Devotary's posts if I have more time. [Note: Depending on what El said to the three questions above, if Devotary does not post in thread at the end of next cycle, he will likely be filter-killed.]

Special mention to Sart: I strongly suspect Sart is a Cultist. Sart's voting history has been to target active Korathi, namely Straw and Ash and myself. Furthermore, Sart isn't really attempting to clear up any resulting confusion - which, I'd argue, is what a Korathi would do, because fueling discussion is one thing, confusing your own team is another. The Korathi need to: A) stop engaging with Sart and just ignore him, B ) remember that he's got a vote as well, and C) decide on whether they want Sart alive or dead and just do it. I don't see future analysis being helpful in this regard. My personal take is that one way or another, if the Cultists are shutting down active Korathi, like it or not, this will become a major problem for the Korathi w.r.t. to our goals of finding Jeskeri.

Oh, and I mildly disagree about the contribution crusade - inactives, by their nature, don't argue back. Of course, if we have people in-thread defending them, that's another issue. But now that we've said as much, will this still happen? Go after low-activity people, if you like. The filter exists precisely to deal with inactives.

I anticipate another three deaths this cycle, with the brunt likely to fall on the Korathi. And notice we have four inactivity filters due to go off next cycle, if I'm right. That could be up to six to seven deaths. As much as I suspect Pyro, I do think Pyro makes a cogent point about a potential Cultist/Jeskeri alliance. Get cracking, people.

Well, time to roll El's dice :P Pyro, Vapor. May Domi have mercy :P 

P.S. @Matrim's Dice ...Pyro is basically claiming he disagrees because the three dominant lynch clusters from D1, himself, Ash, and Mint, were all three of them Villagers. Now obviously, I disagree that Pyro is a Villager. But that's all Pyro's saying.

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Posted (edited)

I feel a lot of pressure in what I'm about to do.

Kasimir Vapor

Here is my reasons for doing this

  1. As the cycle has progressed I have had an increasingly bad feeling about lynching Kas
  2. I read his 'don't read this unless I die' thing. (Sorry, but it helped convince me :P) and also I really like that last post (even if it does convict me)
  3. I am also suspicious of Vapor, so this switch doesn't really change much, but she's moved ahead of Kas now
  4. I don't really feel comfortable voting alongside a suspected Cultist and JP

Uh, so there :P Kasimir, consider yourself saved, at least for now.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Posted (edited)

20 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I disagree. This is assuming the JP have control over the main lynch, and when considering that there were almost certainly more Korathi than JP to begin with and the Jeskeri lynch has taken out two, this is definitely not the case. They very well could have targeted Jeskeri in the lynch last cycle. We won't know because we only know the results for 4 votes.

Also- total meta theory here, with no proof- but who's to say Xino wasn't posting in the Jeskeri doc? El did post this in the OP last cycle:

Which sort of seems like an unnecessary clarification. In wasn't a question that was asked (at least that I know of) and the only person who didn't post in-thread C1 was Xino, a now proven JP. So I'm wondering if he was active in the JP doc, even if that little detail doesn't matter much beyond explaining why he was J-lynched :P 

Keep in mind, so far, two Korathi have died for each Jeskeri, and if the starting ratio was more than 2:1, or they started with more than 1/3 of the players, the ratio Korathi:Jeskeri is decreasing.

19 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In all seriousness though, this is a good point. Still don't want to assume the Jeskeri will never vote for one of their own though.

Always a good assumption to not make. Distancing is a thing. 

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I'll say this though. At least for the first cycle, we know for sure that JP weren't targeting other JP because my vote on Lotus came relatively early in the cycle, and stayed fairly late into the cycle. If they wanted to, they could have supported and contributed to lynching Lotus, and voting for someone else in their doc. But this didn't happen. Will they continue this trend into the further cycles now that 2 JPs are dead? Will they grow more desperate to find the Cultists that they are willing to double-kill, or will they be more cautious and continue the trend. Storms if I know. 

Coming to Sart, it's been established by general consensus that he has been given a Cultist read. But hasn't he been the target of the Jeskeri Inquisition? That the JP went for lynching player about to die anyway over a heavily rumored Cultist makes me believe - either Hael is right, and Sart has convinced everyone in the doc that he is going to act like a Cultist in-thread and be a good loyal JP in the doc; OR Sart is a Korathi, out of the reach of the Jeskeri Inquisition. The former implies he's either a JP acting like a JC in-thread to avoid the public lynch with major backing of other JPs; OR he's a JC having pocketed the entire JP. I'd like more opinion on which do you guys think is the case. I think the reveal of the current cycle's Jeskeri lynch might shed more light into the issue. 

  • @Mist - I'd like to see a vote from you this cycle, if you're caught up with the thread. Null.

So, out of 8 people to combine vote on Ashbringer and Mint in the first cycle, I believe at least one is JP. Voters whose alignment is unknown to me at this point is Elkanah, Devotary, Vapor and Matrim. Of those, I'm most suspicious of Matrim's Dice

 

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Mist- Hasn't really said anything. Null.

Sorry, guys. RL is more busy this game, and QFs are fast. I'll respond to the current cycle, and past cycles as I notice stuff while rereading.

Activity is good! Be active please. Village needs to talk! @ing people who haven't posted this cycle.

2. Haelblade - I'm wondering about their Sart vote last cycle.
3. Kasimir - Kiean - Korathi lean 
4. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Serenken - Voted on Mint. 
5. TJ Shade - Aanalan
6. Lord_Silberfarben - Ashen - typical playstyle, posting some, not much analysis. 

7. @Young Bard - Reolene - Not very active. Voted Matrim C2.
10. Matrim's Dice - Dasehe 
13. @StrikerEZ - voted Pyro, left tie last cycle. Trying to lay low?
14. The Young Pyromancer - Mancia Young - I'm just confused. This is their typical playstyle, so slight lean Korathi, but they are being rather chaotic. Lotus voted them, not distancing? 
16. Drake Marshall - Merryn - 
17. Vapor - Grace - Neutral read. I can attest to her limited time for posting and drafting, which is probably why she's sheeping votes, although she should change that. I know it takes time to draft a good SE post, much more than to draft a RP or TLPW post.
19. Sart - Sevat - Cultist read. 
20. Illwei - Avanae
21. @Elkanah - Kaleno - Poked by Drake. Spreadsheet analysis: thorough, contributing. Mild Korathi lean.
 

Posting this now so I don't lose it.

Kas: Sart, Vapor

Hael: Drake

Vapor: Hael, TJ, Kas, Mat

I think the above is the vote count. 

I have a neutral read on Vapor and know that she will be unable to defend herself this cycle. @Vapor, I do want an explanation for sheeping.

Pyro is just being chaotic, which is fairly normal for him. Kas is contributing, although his self-vote still defies my logical analysis. I'm not sure about Hael's vote last cycle. 

Vote: Striker

Striker has posted twice. His vote on Pyro was odd, and he appears to be posting enough to avoid the filter, but hasn't contributed much. Will finish reads list, vote earlier next cycle. Sorry for late vote.

Edited by Mist
Updating vote count
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Kas(2): Sart, Vapor
Hael(1): Drake
Vapor(4): Hael, TJ, Kas, Matrim
Striker(1): Mist, Devotary

So we're voting for Vapor because of opportunistic voting, apparently, and thinking it's better than Kas. I'm not really seeing a reason for JP!Vapor to vote Mint C1 except to save JP!Pyro, which I guess is looking more likely than it was C1. Lotus did put Pyro in the vote lead C1, but I guess it was early enough for that not to be immediately fatal. If Lotus/Pyro were both JP though, I don't know why Lotus would have died since voting for a doc member is much more a JP strategy than a JC one. Pyro voting for Ash as a more likely Cultist is a bad look, although Kas is currently doing the same(though not quite since the votes weren't as close).

There's no way Pyro claims Cultist to Hael if they're both in the Jeskeri doc. That says little about Hael's alignment if Pyro is Korathi though.

This took way too long again. My vote is meaningless at this point, but I'll poke Striker I guess. He might have broken the tie had he been in a doc with Matrim, but the odds of him not doing so are higher if he's a JP rather than a JC. Korathi Matrim means Striker doesn't care.

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bodies
bodies
so many bodies

im pretty sure that's merryn up there impaled on a tree branch but i'd have to get closer to be sure and that would be BAD

they shoved grace in the campfire last night

I couldnt watch

what is it about this place

are any of us faithful?

after this?

i don't know



Vapor died to the Korathi Inquisition, and was Korathi.
TJ Shade died to the Cultist kill, and was Korathi.
Drake Marshall died to the Jeskeri inquisition, and was a Jeskeri Practitioner.

Vote Count
Vapor (4): Hael, Kas, Matrim, TJ
Striker (2): Devotary, Mist
Kas (2): Sart, Vapor
Hael (1): Drake

Cycle 4 has begun and will end in 23 hours. In response to @Kasimir's question about activity, I can neither confirm nor deny who might die at the end of this cycle because I haven't counted activity for Cycle 3 yet because everyone still alive was active Cycle 2 and thus no one would be dying of inactivity this cycle. :P But if they did not post during Cycle 3, you're correct that they would be dying at the end of this cycle if they continue to not post.

Player List
1. Ashbringer - Korathi

2. @Haelbarde 
3. @Kasimir - Kiean
4. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Serenken
5. TJ Shade - Korathi
6. @Lord_Silberfarben - Ashen Silberfarben
7. @Young Bard - Reolene
8. Gears - Korathi
9. Straw - Korathi
10. @Matrim's Dice - Dasehe
11. Xino - Jeskeri Practitioner
12. @Mist - Tamai
13. @StrikerEZ
14. @The Young Pyromancer - Mancia Young
15. Lotus - Jeskeri Practitioner
16. Drake - Jeskeri Practitioner
17. Vapor - Korathi
18. Mint - Korathi
19. @Sart - Sevat
20. @Illwei - Avanae
21. @Elkanah - Kaleno

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Posted (edited)

All three of the people who died were people I had actual reads on.

And all of those reads were wrong. 

I don't know what this means, though I am gonna take a look at all of Drake's posts, so expect that in about an hour.

 

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Posted (edited)

Drake's alignment is interesting.

I'm wary of Cultists here. Not one has died so far, and it appears the Practitioners have seen that and decided upon killing their own.

Gah, it's probably just me and one or two other Korathi left. Looks like the game's mostly down to rooting out cultists before said Cultists kill the Korathi, then the remaining Practitioners.

Will respond to Kas's suspicion of me in a bit.

EDIT: Okay, I think you misunderstood me; it's not that I thought they were both Jeskerai and voted on the one more likely to be a Cultist, it's that I thought both of them were kinda neutral, but if one of them wasn't Korathi, it'd likely be Ash. Though a cultist dying isn't as good as a Practitioner, it still is better than an innocent Korathi. Thus, my vote. Does that make sense?

Edited by The Young Pyromancer
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2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Gah, it's probably just me and one or two other Korathi left. Looks like the game's mostly down to rooting out cultists before said Cultists kill the Korathi, then the remaining Practitioners.

...Why? There's 12 players left. 3 Korathi left would mean 9 Jeskeri left, meaning a distribution at the beginning of 9 Korathi to 12 Jeskeri. I assumed there was definitely more Korathi than that.

Now I will reply to @Kasimir's post last cycle, specifically concerning me, of which I wrote during rollover in my notes doc.

Quote

Matrim's Dice: Identified because of odd voting patterns with little shift. For someone who is highly involved in the thread, you'd think his suspicions, and this his voting, would shift, but it doesn't. He slaps down one vote per cycle, tunnels, and then stays there. This, I'd argue, could be a Cultist profile or a Jeskeri profile. 

Hmm, that’s actually pretty fair. I haven’t played many QF’s- this being my 2nd- and am more accustomed to the 48-hour periods of which to vote that are more common in MR’s and LG’s. I do like my suspicions, though, and I suppose you could say I’m a bit like Araris in that regard. I might want to try to change this, though, and don’t have anything to say in response except “good point” 

Quote

(Aside: Matrim's veering off Illwei: possibly due to backlash in Jeskeri doc?) 

Didn’t you just say that me sticking with my votes to an extreme is suspicious? This counters that. What can I do? :P 

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Highlights the weirdness of things ("Vapor/People following my votes") or ("I'm concerned everyone piled onto Mint" right before the lynch ended), but with little activity to show for it. If Vapor following your votes is weird, why do you just lampshade it and leave if there if you are Korathi? Shouldn't this be more concerning? 

It is concerning- that's why I brought it up. Though I was slightly worried about the responses I would get if I over-said it, but it appears I get a response either way :P Still working on discovering the balance of things like that. The fact that the two people I noticed following my votes- Gears and Vapor- were both Korathi should be a point in my favor.

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Why do your votes not shift?  

See above.

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Why do you not seem to be engaged with the game except on the surface level?  

Do I appear that way? All I can do in this game is analyze the thread posts, so if that seems shallow, that’s too bad. (Though I guess I can RP) 

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I still maintain his response to the Mint lynch seemed more consistent with someone who knew how the lynch would end up. Suspicious. 

Ah well. Nothing I can say about this to change your mind.

And while I obviously disagree with the above points, the rest of your post made sense. So I'll lay off of you for now.

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[OOC] Couldn't sleep so I figured I'd check in. Cleaning up an ink spill. FWIW guys never spill ink on the floor, I think my hands are permanently blue now and I look like I just killed a smurf :( Other pen friends have told me to get rid of my hands or use bleach. Eurgh. 

#1. @Elbereth - Fair enough. I interpret this to mean that @Young Bard and @StrikerEZ and @Elkanah are still on the chopping block. Mist has posted and so has Devotary. Heads-up guys, if these people don't post, we're looking at 3 potential deaths this cycle. I don't remember Elk saying anything at all last cycle.

#2. @Devotary of Spontaneity - I'm sorry, was I supposed to lie down and get lynched? Ash voted to save himself, too. There was pretty much no other good move to make. Unless I was dead certain that Vapor was Korathi and going to actively help the Village, from a win-con perspective, the only way for me to play to my win con, knowing my own alignment, would've been to save myself (since I'm certain of my own alignment) over saving another possible Villager (and even then, I went back and forth about Vapor.) If you follow the vote counts, the votes on me and Vapor were 3:2. Voting for Vapor wasn't about suspicion, it just gave me a 50-50 shot at survival so I took it. If you think that's unethical, then I accept the charge. It probably wasn't ethical to save myself at Vapor's expense. Sorry, @Vapor. I'll continue to do my best for the Korathi.

#3. @The Young Pyromancer - Okay, this makes sense to me. I'll re-evaluate from here.

#4. @Matrim's Dice - You mentioning your unease at your suspicions voting... How do you think it makes me feel when one of my main suspicions votes to save me? :P But anyway I am going to re-evaluate everything in light of Drake's alignment reveal and TJ's. Agreed about Illwei, but my point about rigid suspicions was more cycle to cycle, and I felt your dropping of Illwei was really sudden. What motivated that? It's definitely not as egregious as Elk focusing on Ash, to be sure.

Right. Brief thoughts before I continue to clean up and go the hell to sleep. 

T1. I'm pleased to see my gut feeling that @TJ Shade and Ash were involved in a Villager-on-Villager slapfight was not wrong. And TJ: "Life is a gift… for those who know how to use it." I will do my best as long as I'm still alive. Now that we know TJ is Village, it's easier to get some clarity about the TJ/Ash faultline, I think. I will need to go back and look at that. I still think TJ's analysis of the Sart situation makes good sense to me. And I want a closer look at his reads/arguments.

T2. I am interested in looking at what Drake has said and done, now that Drake has been lynched. Some interesting things: Drake voted for @Illwei and considered the fact that Ilwei and Ash were tied and nothing happened to be indicative that Illwei was Korathi. This needs more analysis than I can give it right now (pls let me desmurf and sleep) but I thought I'd flag it for the thread. Drake also went for @Haelbarde last cycle, and @Elkanah and myself on Cycle One. I feel like the vote on myself indicates that Drake's strategy was to appear mildly engaged, but this will really need more Elk and Hael and Illwei analysis as well.

Drake also suggested we focus on fringe voters, and even suggested a revival of the Contribution Crusade. Note that his definition of fringe voters differs from the criterion I've been using in vote analysis. The question is whether we think he was trying to redirect attention to inactives (hint that Jeskeri are actives?), or whether he was just trying to obfuscate in general. (And was he even trying to use the Korathi lynch? If he was, then we should see the opposite result, i.e. we do have Jeskeri inactives! - Did he maybe get voted on for this difference in strategy?)

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Being a somewhat weird faction game, I kinda doubt many Jeskeri would feel a need to strongly participate if the lynch was between two Korathi, which is what I suspect was the case. The Practitioners at least should have a motive to be focusing on a different lynch, and they are who we want to catch.

Does this mean some Jeskeri were on the Ash/Illwei competing trains? Unclear. Why did the Jeskeri go after Drake? Does it have anything to do with his public votes? Or was he involved in weird drek in the doc? If public votes - Illwei? Hael? Elk? Myself? 

Drake. Lotus, and xino all fit the profile of peripheral voters. Unclear if this will continue to be true of Jeskeri. More analysis required. Drake also put mild trust reads on myself, Illwei, and Mat. @Matrim's Dice, I'm curious if you think he was trying to pocket you.

Right. Now let me sleep. And before that: 

Elkanah, who do you suspect now? What do you make of the game? @Illwei, same for you.

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