Lightspine

So, where's the lie?

23 posts in this topic

The Davar family's association with The Ghostbloods might've played a role as well. As well as, maybe, the Unmade that has been influencing them. (https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85240-lin-davar-odium-connection-worob/#comment-865629)

Szeth does use Adhesion during the fight.

This is a really good breakdown, which I don't think many people would've bothered to try, simply considering it futile due to the amount of info we have as of now. Well done! 

Edited by R J
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4 hours ago, Lightspine said:

Besides the Ghostbloods, there are (at least) two other secret societies

That was an understatement:

Quote

Aradel (paraphrased)

I asked Brandon just how many secret societies were on Roshar.

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

There are nine currently working.

Words of Radiance release party (March 3, 2014)

So it could be that, but that is kind of a stretch 

 

It looks good! I think that it works out and covers all the bases

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While I have no proof I always wondered if the Ghostbloods were the ones who actually sent Helaran and that it wasn’t the Skybreakers who sent him after Amaram. It seems much more like something they would do and also Amaram suspect’s Thaidakar. Maybe Helaran was both a  Skybreaker initiate and a member of the Ghostbloods. We do hear Mraize tell Shallan her being a radiant doesn’t mean she can’t join them. 

Edited by Quazzi
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10 hours ago, R J said:

The Davar family's association with The Ghostbloods might've played a role as well. As well as, maybe, the Unmade that has been influencing them. (https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85240-lin-davar-odium-connection-worob/#comment-865629)

Szeth does use Adhesion during the fight.

This is a really good breakdown, which I don't think many people would've bothered to try, simply considering it futile due to the amount of info we have as of now. Well done! 

Ah, nice point! I can't believe I left Lin Davar's Ghostblood connections out of my analysis. With all the animosity between Helaran and Lin, this does hint toward a possible conflict between the Skybreakers and the Ghostbloods. However, I don't have a clue when Lin started associating with them. I think it probably started after Shallan's mother tried to kill her, but I don't think we have evidence to say for sure. We also don't know he if was already affiliated with the Ghostbloods at the time that Helaran showed up with a Shardblade and then left (please correct me if you actually have evidence regarding this, I don't remember the fine details very well). As for the unmade, perhaps that helps patch up the explanation that the Ghostbloods give for how Shallan's mother acts, but I'm not sure how they would influence the situation as a whole. 

I just went back and reread the Way of Kings prologue, and i still didn't find any instance where Szeth uses Adhesion against Gavilar. To be clear, I know that Szeth uses Adhesion during his assault on the palace guard, I just didn't find any instance where Gavilar would have witnessed him using it. I'm making that distinction because my point is that Gavilar should have been unable to determine whether Szeth was using Windrunner or Skybreaker surges. Please correct me and cite the specific instance if I'm wrong!

Thanks! I hope it was insightful! I tend to be pretty bad at spotting small stuff during my initial reads (I'm terrible at spotting worldhoppers) so I'm trying to improve at this sort of thing.

6 hours ago, GoWibble said:

That was an understatement:

So it could be that, but that is kind of a stretch 

 

It looks good! I think that it works out and covers all the bases

Wow, I haven't seen that WoB before. Besides the Ghostbloods, Skybreakers, and Sons of Honor, the only other secret societies I can think of are the Pattern (Taravangian's peeps) and maybe the Dysian Aimians (aka sleepless immortals)? I'm not sure if the Dysian Aimians count, but they do seem to have a pretty sneaky surveillance network. Also, going off of what Shallan hears when she eavesdrops on Mraize, perhaps the mad herald Ishar (going by Tezim, warlord of Tukar) has a society of his own. At least, he's somebody the Ghostbloods keep an eye on. Maybe we should also include the 17th shard, since we see them searching for Hoid at the Purelake.

Still, that's a lot of secret societies that we seem to know absolutely nothing about. Yikes.

5 hours ago, Quazzi said:

While I have no proof I always wondered if the Ghostbloods were the ones who actually sent Helaran and that it wasn’t the Skybreakers who sent him after Amaram. It seems much more like something they would do and also Amaram suspect’s Thaidakar. Maybe Helaran was both a  Skybreaker initiate and a member of the Ghostbloods. We do hear Mraize tell Shallan her being a radiant doesn’t mean she can’t join them. 

That's a good point, we definitely have textual evidence that the Ghostbloods don't like Amaram. Plus, unlike the Skybreakers, it might actually have been a challenge for the Ghostbloods to kill Amaram after he obtained Shards, so it would explain the lack of follow-up attempts.

However, I well say that if Helaran's goal is indeed to kill Amaram, he's almost hilarious (Helar-iously? Hmm, I'll leave the puns to Shallan) bad at his job. I'm taking another look at chapter 47 of WoK, and he's not being that efficient about it. He rides past Amaram and kills his horse first, then lets himself be distracted by Kaladin's squad moments before he's about to finish Amaram off. He spends way too long engaging Kaladin, and lets Amaram crawl away a good distance. As a full shardbearer, he should have just ignored Kaladin and crushed Amaram on the spot.

Also: a mini-theory I forgot to include (and will add to my original post):
Mraize's phrasing about Tien's death is interesting. The exact quote is "From our spying upon the Skybreakers, we have records showing the only member of Amaram's army to have bonded a spren was long since eliminated." Eliminated. Maybe I'm being a bit paranoid, but should we just believe the Skybreakers knew of Tien, yet did nothing? Tien's completely innocent of any crimes, so it protects him from their direct assassination but I wouldn't put it against the Skybreakers to pull a few strings and make sure a messenger boy winds up on the front lines of combat. If this mini-theory is true, then it has pretty big implications about how Kaladin might react towards the Skybreakers if he ever find this out.

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He should've become aware. Since he was already prepared to act as his own decoy. 

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1 hour ago, Lightspine said:

Wow, I haven't seen that WoB before. Besides the Ghostbloods, Skybreakers, and Sons of Honor, the only other secret societies I can think of are the Pattern (Taravangian's peeps) and maybe the Dysian Aimians (aka sleepless immortals)? I'm not sure if the Dysian Aimians count, but they do seem to have a pretty sneaky surveillance network. Also, going off of what Shallan hears when she eavesdrops on Mraize, perhaps the mad herald Ishar (going by Tezim, warlord of Tukar) has a society of his own. At least, he's somebody the Ghostbloods keep an eye on. Maybe we should also include the 17th shard, since we see them searching for Hoid at the Purelake.

Still, that's a lot of secret societies that we seem to know absolutely nothing about. Yikes.

yep. I can't wait for a silverlight society reveal that is inevitable. Also, Hoid counts for one on his own. 

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Wow this is super impressive. I never thought about the possibility that Helaran was meant to kill Kaladin - if that is true, that answers a whole lot of questions about why the Kaladin was not killed already.

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Quality thread. I'm giving you an up-vote 

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2 hours ago, R J said:

He should've become aware. Since he was already prepared to act as his own decoy. 

Hmmm. I agree that it is possible, but far from definite, that Gavilar heard about Szeth's abilities while he was preparing to fight. However, descriptions of Szeth were so abuzz with rumor and misunderstanding that I doubt it would have been possible to completely rule out the possibility that he was a Skybreaker.

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I did a long line by line analysis of this letter for someone else during an argument.  I came to some different conclusions but I still find your own interesting.

Spoiler
Quote

There are at least two major institutions on Roshar, other than ourselves, which presaged the return of the Voidbringers and the Desolations, the letter read.

This is a lie.  The GB know about the sleepless.  However by saying at least two they can claim that they suspected but did not know or something similar.
You are familiar with the first of these, the men who call themselves the Sons of Honor. The old king of Alethkar—the Blackthorn’s brother, Gavilar Kholin—was a driving force in their expansion. He brought Meridas Amaram into their fold.
True but... For people in the know this seems fairly obvious but it is likely not the extent of the GB knowledge as they are aware of the Heralds and as such know Gavilar was playing the Sons of Honor. 

As you no doubt discovered upon infiltrating Amaram’s mansion in the warcamps, the Sons of Honor explicitly worked for the return of the Desolations.

True by Amaram's own account although I don't think he new everything.

They believed that only the Voidbringers would cause the Heralds to show themselves—and they believed that a Desolation would restore both the Knights Radiant and the classical strength of the Vorin church. King Gavilar’s efforts to rekindle the Desolations are likely the true reason he was assassinated.

This is all true.  Gavilar was assassinated for trying to start a desolation and SoH's publicly stated goal was to kick of another round of heraldic epochs.

Though there were many in the palace that night who had reason to see him dead.

Lying by omission/implication.  A statement designed to impress how dependent Shallan is on the GBs for information.
A second group who knew the Desolations might return are the Skybreakers. Led by the ancient Herald Nalan’Elin—often simply called Nale—the Skybreakers are the only order of Radiants that did not betray its oaths during the Recreance. They have maintained a continuous clandestine line from ancient days.  Nale believed that men speaking the Words of other orders would hasten the return of the Voidbringers

True

We do not know how this could possibly be true, but as a Herald, Nale has access to knowledge and understanding beyond us.

True but... The GBs know he is crazy.  This a factually correct statement designed to leave Shallan with wrong information.

You should know that the Heralds are no longer to be seen as allies to man. Those that are not completely insane have been broken. Nale himself is ruthless, without pity or mercy. He has spent the last two decades—perhaps much longer—dealing with anyone close to bonding a spren. Sometimes he recruited these people, bonding them to highspren and making them Skybreakers. Others he eliminated. If the person had already bonded a spren, then Nale usually went in person to dispatch them. If not, he sent a minion.

Seems pretty true and we have verification.
A minion like your brother Helaran.
Your mother had intimate contact with a Skybreaker acolyte, and you know the result of that relationship.

You believe this is a lie however it seems way too much.  The GBs don't know what Shallan knows.  If she caught the acolyte say Skybreaker in context at the wrong moment as a child then she knows that they are lying to her and their story starts to unravel.  Also why bother lying to her about this?  Just say.  "We managed to come to an understanding with your brother and he decided to join us."  Gains you a few points, confuses your mark, and makes your victory seem inevitable sapping Shallan's will to resist.

Your brother was recruited because Nale was impressed with him.

True but I don't think they are using the normal value of impressed in this statement.  IE Nale could have thought.  "This one will make great cannon fodder."

Nale may also have learned, through means we do not understand,

Lie.  They found out about Tein.  They know how to track radiants or at least how to track radiant trackers.  However they again leave themselves on out by explaining that they don't fully understand the method they just use it.

that a member of your house was close to bonding a spren.

True.  This one makes sense based on observed data.

If this is true, they came to believe that Helaran was the one they wanted. They recruited him with displays of great power and Shards.

Yes but... I think the Skybreakers were at least a bit aware of Shallan but concluded that the bond was broken.

Quote

Helaran had not yet proved himself worthy of a spren bond. Nale is exacting with his recruits.

True via observed data.

Likely, Helaran was sent to kill Amaram as a test—either that or he took it upon himself as a way of proving his worthiness for knighthood.

Seems true.  You may have felt his opportunity was slipping and that he had to prove himself somehow or maybe Amaram was getting a little too close to Skybreaker operations.
It is also possible that the Skybreakers knew someone in Amaram’s army was close to bonding a spren,but I believe it likelier that the attack on Amaram was simply a strike against the Sons of Honor. From our spying upon the Skybreakers, we have records showing the only member of Amaram’s army to have bonded a spren was long since eliminated.
Same as the other blue
The bridgeman was not, so far as we understand, known to them. If he had been, he would certainly have been killed during his months as a slave.
Tidbit to remind Shallan how useful they are.

 

Edited by Karger
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1 hour ago, Karger said:

I did a long line by line analysis of this letter for someone else during an argument.  I came to some different conclusions but I still find your own interesting.

  Hide contents

 

 

Wow, we did come to pretty different conclusions about the last few lines of the letter, although I believe we agree on most of what comes before.

You make a good point that we don't really know whether or not Amaram was doing anything at the time, and he could have been making himself more threatening to the Skybreakers. My analysis definitely assumed, perhaps too hastily, that the Sons of Honor weren't terribly productive following Gavilar's death. I believed this primarily because we haven't seen them actually influence the turn of events. Venli, being guided by Ulim, was the driving actor behind the new Desolation after Gavilar's assassination. The goal of the Sons is accomplished, but they weren't the ones who orchestrated it. But for all we know, they had some other scheme cooking which didn't fully execute before Venli's success.

You also bring up the possibility that Helaran was acting on his own because his "opportunity was slipping." That could maybe explain why there were no further attempts on Amaram's life.

However, I do very firmly believe that—although there are many plausible alternatives to the theory I gave on my original post—the interaction between the Skybreakers and the Sons of Honor is much more complicated than Mraize would have Shallan believe. Despite their opposite ideologies, something more is going on and they're clearly not especially intent killing each other off given the number of missed opportunities they've had to do so, and the lack of accusations that Gavilar and Amaram have against them.

Edit: Forgot to say this, but I'd be interested to read the thread in which you made that original line-by-line analysis! Could you link the thread or tell me its name? And thanks for the nice points and analysis as well; I like seeing how other people interpret the same text!

Edited by Lightspine
Interested in another thread
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8 hours ago, Lightspine said:

Edit: Forgot to say this, but I'd be interested to read the thread in which you made that original line-by-line analysis! Could you link the thread or tell me its name? And thanks for the nice points and analysis as well; I like seeing how other people interpret the same text!

So the thread is here.

8 hours ago, Lightspine said:

My analysis definitely assumed, perhaps too hastily, that the Sons of Honor weren't terribly productive following Gavilar's death. I believed this primarily because we haven't seen them actually influence the turn of events

We still only really know about Amaram(of their numbers) and while fairly high ranking he is not a member of their leadership.  I see him more as an attack dog.  He is useful but I don't really see any competent organization entrusting him with command.  Interestingly Heleran was probably the same but in reverse.  He was not really trusted with any important Skybreaker intel just used to attack others.

8 hours ago, Lightspine said:

Despite their opposite ideologies, something more is going on and they're clearly not especially intent killing each other off given the number of missed opportunities they've had to do so, and the lack of accusations that Gavilar and Amaram have against them.

Most of both membership seems to be in hiding.  Killing each other off does not seem particularly productive.  In fact the GBs probably don't have anything against SoH being around provided they don't know anything important.  They will increase uncertainty and be dependent for information of those who have it(the GB probably).

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This is very interesting. I have always wondered if Helaran was Skybreaker "material". All the Skybreakers we have seen on screen tend to be preoccupied with following the law to the letter. Of course, everyone's favorite Murderer-in-white didn't give too much of a damnation about laws, but he did have his oathstone and executed (hehe) his master's wishes no matter the (spiritual) cost to him.

Helaran on the other hand (from what Shallan thinks of him) doesn't seemed too obssesed with the interpretation of the law. He seems more Windrunner material than Skybreaker. He seems very protective of Shallan until he just ups and leaves. 

I think that it is possible that the Skybreakers weren't involved at all. It is possible that it was just the Ghostbloods posing as the Skybreakers to get Helaran out of the picture to pursue whatever motive Luesh had. Then they also get some fodder that could potentially kill Amaram/other Sons of Honor. That's a double win for the Ghostbloods. Like you mention, the Skybreakers should have known that Shallan was the radiant, unless her mother and the acolyte did not share the information (which to me seems to be the beginnings of a Greek tragedy).

 

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1 hour ago, gloriousGlorfindel said:

I think that it is possible that the Skybreakers weren't involved at all. It is possible that it was just the Ghostbloods posing as the Skybreakers to get Helaran out of the picture to pursue whatever motive Luesh had.

Quote

marcos

As of Words of Radiance, are there two groups of Skybreakers running around claiming to be Skybreakers?

Brandon Sanderson

Nale’s group is the only one I think I’ve had on-screen, so yeah I think there’s only one. Why would you ask that?

marcos

Was the group that Helaran joined the actual Skybreakers?

Brandon Sanderson

Oh, I get what you’re saying. Okay. Yes, there is one unified group that call themselves the Skybreakers, good question.

Calamity Philadelphia signing (Feb. 20, 2016)

I am afraid not.  That was actually largely what the debate was about when I analyzed the letter.

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10 minutes ago, Karger said:

I am afraid not.  That was actually largely what the debate was about when I analyzed the letter.

That WoB doesn't say that Helaran joined the Skybreakers; it says that there is one group calling themselves the Skybreakers. That doesn't preclude the Ghostbloods from attributing other groups' actions to the Skybreakers.

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30 minutes ago, ChickenLiberty said:

That WoB doesn't say that Helaran joined the Skybreakers; it says that there is one group calling themselves the Skybreakers. That doesn't preclude the Ghostbloods from attributing other groups' actions to the Skybreakers.

So this was my conclusion.  I suppose you can disagree but I don't think evidence supports that.

13 hours ago, Karger said:

You believe this is a lie however it seems way too much.  The GBs don't know what Shallan knows.  If she caught the acolyte say Skybreaker in context at the wrong moment as a child then she knows that they are lying to her and their story starts to unravel.  Also why bother lying to her about this?  Just say.  "We managed to come to an understanding with your brother and he decided to join us."  Gains you a few points, confuses your mark, and makes your victory seem inevitable sapping Shallan's will to resist.

 

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1 minute ago, Karger said:

So this was my conclusion.  I suppose you can disagree but I don't think evidence supports that.

 

I wasn't trying to support either side, really; the points you've made do make sense. I was just saying that that WoB doesn't really support the argument being made. 

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1 hour ago, ChickenLiberty said:

I wasn't trying to support either side, really; the points you've made do make sense. I was just saying that that WoB doesn't really support the argument being made. 

True we went over this in length in the discussion thread I linked if you are interested.

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4 hours ago, Karger said:

Most of both membership seems to be in hiding.  Killing each other off does not seem particularly productive.  In fact the GBs probably don't have anything against SoH being around provided they don't know anything important.  They will increase uncertainty and be dependent for information of those who have it(the GB probably).

You're right, this could explain why they're not constantly sending assassins after Amaram. However, (Rhythm of War Prologue spoilers)

Spoiler

We know for a fact that Gavilar and Nale were collaborating about something concerning transportation to and from Braize (and trying to transport even further than Braize), which to me sounds like part of his SoH plotting. Even if it isn't, I find it hard to believe that Nale had no clue about what Gavilar was up to. You may be right about them being at odds now, but this may not have been the case during the time of Gavilar.

 

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Nales Skybreakers only hunt surgebinders. Thats my take.

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On 6/26/2020 at 0:22 PM, Karger said:

@Lightspine please post your theory here.

 

Sure! Thanks for considering it worthy haha ^_^.

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