So, where's the lie?

[Lightspine]

I've started a reread of Oathbringer in anticipation for Rhythm of War, and just thought I'd spend way too long dissecting like one line that Pattern says.

So, at the beginning of Chapter 40 of Oathbringer we have a letter sent to Shallan by the Ghostbloods explaining stuff about the Sons of Honor and the Skybreakers. After we get to read the letter, (on page 422 of the hardcover) Pattern drops this: 

Quote

"Secrets," Pattern said. "There are lies in this letter."

Now, I know Pattern likes to drop the word "lies" in a crap ton of places that most of us wouldn't, and I don't believe that he's some sort of lie detector who will 100% always know when a lie is there. However, I do believe that the Branderson pays very, very deep attention to his writing and that he may have dropped this line as a flag to this reader, like "Hey, this thing is written by the Ghostbloods, and they have no reason to tell the whole truth to Shallan: just enough of the truth to keep her hooked and convinced that they have information she doesn't. Take the cue."

Well, do I think there is any hard, textual evidence that this letter is a bit cremmy? Yes, but let's work it all out. Yes, I'm going to call it "crem" instead of "BS," just live with it. Here's the outline of the points that the letter made:

1. Besides the Ghostbloods, there are (at least) two other secret societies: the Sons of Honor and the Skybreakers. Gavilar and Amaram were members of the Sons of Honor. The Sons of Honor sought to return the Desolation in order to strengthen the Vorin church, and this lead to Gavilar's assassination (although others also wanted him dead).
2. The Skybreakers, lead by Nale, did not betray their oaths and have persisted since the Recreance. Nale kills those who are on the verge of becoming Radiants, or sends his Skybreakers/acolytes to do so because he fears new Radiants will lead to a new Desolation. (Alternatively, he turns them into Skybreakers if they are properly aligned)
3. Shallan's mother was associated with the Skybreakers, who may have detected a budding Radiant in her household. This lead to her attempt to murder Shallan. However, the Skybreakers ended up believing this Helaran was the one bonding a spren.
4. Helaran was sent to kill Amaram because of his affiliation with the Sons of Honor.
5. The Skybreakers knew about a member of Amaram's army about to bond a spren, and this person was "eliminated." Kaladin was unknown to them, because otherwise he'd be dead.

Now, let's sift through these 5 points and see if we find any crem.

Point 1: No crem detected. This pretty much confirms what we see from Amaram's chapter in Words of Radiance about the Sons of Honor, and what Szeth sees later on in Oathbringer. The reference to others wanting Gavilar dead makes sense when you remember his last words about Sadeas and Thaidakar. I might modify the "vorin" bit just because Gavilar seems very cosmere-aware and less religious than just plain power hungry but otherwise this seems accurate.

Point 2: No crem detected. We've seen this happen multiple times, and heard Nale's monologue.

Point 3: Probably some crem. Some stuff isn't adding up here. Shallan's mom clearly knew that Shallan was the Radiant, so why would the Skybreakers suddenly decide that it's Helaran? They do not explain how Shallan's mother knows about Shallan's bond while the rest of the Skybreakers do not, and this looks like a major hole in the Ghostblood's story. At the very least, they are leaving out some details about either Shallan's mother or Helaran's affiliation.

(warning: very minor spoiler for the Rhythm of War Prologue, which Brandon has read online.)
Point 4: This is where my crem alarm went off. Let's think this one through. At first glance, the Skybreakers and the Sons of Honor have obvious opposing ideals and it's easy to buy that the Skybreakers would assassinate one of the Sons of Honor. But let's take a closer inspection and see if we've read any hard evidence of these two groups fighting.
No. In fact, we've seen the opposite.

Spoiler

It seems totally incongruous with their motivations, but Gavilar and Nale are seen conversing on the night of the assassination. If you've listened to the RoW prologue, you'll know that Navani catches Nale and probably-Kalak plotting something top-secret with him. I find it utterly impossible to believe that Nale did not, at this point, know of the Sons of Honor and at least some aspects of Gavilar's plan. If he wanted the Sons of Honor stopped, Nale would have gotten to Gavilar long before Szeth did.

Let's also look, again, at what Gavilar says as he's dying. He thinks he's been assassinated by either Sadeas or Thaidakar, not by the Skybreakers. Despite the fact that his assassin can STORMING FLY. Throughout his entire battle with Gavilar, Szeth only uses his surge of Gravitation. (okay tbh I'm not rereading to check but I'm pretty darn sure Szeth doesn't try to stick stuff to Gavilar with Adhesion, and also Decay probably wouldn't work against Shardplate so Gavilar has no reason not to believe he's using Skybreaker surges).  The fact that Gavilar doesn't think his FLYING, GLOWING assassin is a Skybreaker would be simply ridiculous if he knew that they opposed him. (I'm also assuming Gavilar knows about the Skybreakers from his conversation with Nale).
Well, you might say that we're now talking about Gavilar when we should really be talking about Amaram. That's a fair point, so let's look a the timing and execution here. First of all, why now? The Sons of Honor don't seem to have had much of a plan following Gavilar's assassination, besides the extensive mapping of the Shattered Plains which Amaram is caught conducting by Shallan. But at this point in time, Amaram isn't in the Shattered Plains at all: he's fighting some random skirmishes in the middle of Alethkar. Why would they Skybreakers kill him now, when they left him alone when the Sons of Honor were on the verge of success during the night of Gavilar's death, and when he actually decided to go to the Plains later?
The execution is also, like, really weird. The Ghostbloods claim that Helaran was sent to kill Amaram as a test, but it's hardly a test of skill for a full Shardbearer to take down a plain warrior. If this is a test, it's a wimpy one. And after Helaran's failure, why not send another assassin? Yes, Amaram is a bit beefier as a full shardbearer now but we clearly see Szeth, who is weaker than a 3rd oath Windrunner, best multiple full shardbearers (using mostly gravitation, I might add) and we know there are 3rd and 4th ideal Skybreakers along with 5th ideal Nale. Any of these guys could easily wallop Amaram's not-so-sorry chull straight to Braize. The only argument you might make is that it would attract a ton of attention, but guess who's flying around murdering full shardbearers at the time? Szeth would be the perfect cover story: if the Skybreakers assassinated Amaram at any point during the first two books, it would have been pinned on Szeth, no questions asked. What an unfathomably stupid opportunity to ignore. Also, much like Gavilar, Amaram thinks Thaidakar is to blame (although Amaram may not know of the Skybreakers). I simply cannot buy that the Skybreakers want Amaram dead.
But wait, how does this make any sense? These two groups are blatantly opposed in intention. My best guess is that Nale would kinda like being revered as who he is and be able to enforce the law, and that he's fine with Radiants and a Desolation as long as he's in charge of directing the events—hence his collaboration with Gavilar.

Point 5: Possible crem. The proto-radiant mentioned here seems to be Tien, and he does die. So why am I calling out some crem? Because of all the crem in point 4. If Helaran wasn't sent to kill Amaram, why was he there? How could they have noticed Tien, but not Kaladin? I think that Helaran WAS sent to kill Kaladin, and that his attack on Amaram was a tactic to draw Kaladin out. They're on a massive battlefield, and it's not really easy to pin down where one random soldier might be. But if you know they've got the ideals of a Windrunner, you know that they're sure as hell going to run to protect their commanding officer. Kaladin hasn't committed any crimes (even petty ones) that they could pin on him, so they had to kill him in a battle since that's not really illegal I guess? Meanwhile, the Ghostbloods don't tell Shallan about this so they can claim that the Skybreakers want to kill the Sons of Honor.
As for why Kaladin wasn't killed by the Skybreakers while he was a slave, I think Amaram's cover-up may have actually worked. The Skybreakers assumed that Helaran's mission was accomplished (and that Amaram killed him) after they were unable to detect any further radiant activity from the area. At the very least, I think this is easier to explain than all the problems with Point 4.

So, what's the point? If my analysis is correct, it seems like the Ghostbloods are trying to frame the Skybreakers for actions against the Sons of Honor. Conspicuously missing from the letter is any mention of where the Ghostbloods themselves stand on this conflict. We know that both Gavilar and Amaram think Thaidakar wants to murder them, and that Thaidakar is connected to the Ghostbloods. Why not tell Shallan that the Ghostbloods are in conflict with the Sons of Honor? Shallan is ideologically opposed to the Sons so it would even make sense for the Ghostbloods to make the case that they don't like each other. This seems like a glaring detail to omit. Personally, I think that the reason the Ghostbloods and Sons of Honor are in conflict is something pretty nefarious that they aren't willing to reveal, and that they thus want to paint as much antagonism as possible on both the Skybreakers and the Sons so that Shallan doesn't hate the Ghostbloods even more.

So, that's been my absurdly long analysis stemming from a single sentence uttered by Pattern. Yup. There ya go. I'd like to hear everybody's thoughts, and feel free to murder me with words if you disagree with my breakdown.

Edit: forgot to include this mini-theory originally
Mraize's phrasing about Tien's death is interesting. The exact quote is "From our spying upon the Skybreakers, we have records showing the only member of Amaram's army to have bonded a spren was long since eliminated." Eliminated. Maybe I'm being a bit paranoid, but should we just believe the Skybreakers knew of Tien, yet did nothing? Tien's completely innocent of any crimes, so it protects him from their direct assassination but I wouldn't put it against the Skybreakers to pull a few strings and make sure a messenger boy winds up on the front lines of combat. If this mini-theory is true, then it has pretty big implications about how Kaladin might react towards the Skybreakers if he ever find this out.

Edited June 25, 2020 by Lightspine
Minor grammar corrections, adding a mini-theory

[Honorless]

The Davar family's association with The Ghostbloods might've played a role as well. As well as, maybe, the Unmade that has been influencing them. (https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85240-lin-davar-odium-connection-worob/#comment-865629)

Szeth does use Adhesion during the fight.

This is a really good breakdown, which I don't think many people would've bothered to try, simply considering it futile due to the amount of info we have as of now. Well done! 

Edited June 25, 2020 by R J

[GoWibble]

4 hours ago, Lightspine said:

Besides the Ghostbloods, there are (at least) two other secret societies

That was an understatement:

Quote

Aradel (paraphrased)

I asked Brandon just how many secret societies were on Roshar.

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

There are nine currently working.

Words of Radiance release party (March 3, 2014)

So it could be that, but that is kind of a stretch 

 

It looks good! I think that it works out and covers all the bases

[+Quazzi]

While I have no proof I always wondered if the Ghostbloods were the ones who actually sent Helaran and that it wasn’t the Skybreakers who sent him after Amaram. It seems much more like something they would do and also Amaram suspect’s Thaidakar. Maybe Helaran was both a  Skybreaker initiate and a member of the Ghostbloods. We do hear Mraize tell Shallan her being a radiant doesn’t mean she can’t join them. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Quazzi
Correction

[Lightspine]

10 hours ago, R J said:

The Davar family's association with The Ghostbloods might've played a role as well. As well as, maybe, the Unmade that has been influencing them. (https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85240-lin-davar-odium-connection-worob/#comment-865629)

Szeth does use Adhesion during the fight.

This is a really good breakdown, which I don't think many people would've bothered to try, simply considering it futile due to the amount of info we have as of now. Well done! 

Ah, nice point! I can't believe I left Lin Davar's Ghostblood connections out of my analysis. With all the animosity between Helaran and Lin, this does hint toward a possible conflict between the Skybreakers and the Ghostbloods. However, I don't have a clue when Lin started associating with them. I think it probably started after Shallan's mother tried to kill her, but I don't think we have evidence to say for sure. We also don't know he if was already affiliated with the Ghostbloods at the time that Helaran showed up with a Shardblade and then left (please correct me if you actually have evidence regarding this, I don't remember the fine details very well). As for the unmade, perhaps that helps patch up the explanation that the Ghostbloods give for how Shallan's mother acts, but I'm not sure how they would influence the situation as a whole. 

I just went back and reread the Way of Kings prologue, and i still didn't find any instance where Szeth uses Adhesion against Gavilar. To be clear, I know that Szeth uses Adhesion during his assault on the palace guard, I just didn't find any instance where Gavilar would have witnessed him using it. I'm making that distinction because my point is that Gavilar should have been unable to determine whether Szeth was using Windrunner or Skybreaker surges. Please correct me and cite the specific instance if I'm wrong!

Thanks! I hope it was insightful! I tend to be pretty bad at spotting small stuff during my initial reads (I'm terrible at spotting worldhoppers) so I'm trying to improve at this sort of thing.

6 hours ago, GoWibble said:

That was an understatement:

So it could be that, but that is kind of a stretch 

 

It looks good! I think that it works out and covers all the bases

Wow, I haven't seen that WoB before. Besides the Ghostbloods, Skybreakers, and Sons of Honor, the only other secret societies I can think of are the Pattern (Taravangian's peeps) and maybe the Dysian Aimians (aka sleepless immortals)? I'm not sure if the Dysian Aimians count, but they do seem to have a pretty sneaky surveillance network. Also, going off of what Shallan hears when she eavesdrops on Mraize, perhaps the mad herald Ishar (going by Tezim, warlord of Tukar) has a society of his own. At least, he's somebody the Ghostbloods keep an eye on. Maybe we should also include the 17th shard, since we see them searching for Hoid at the Purelake.

Still, that's a lot of secret societies that we seem to know absolutely nothing about. Yikes.

5 hours ago, Quazzi said:

While I have no proof I always wondered if the Ghostbloods were the ones who actually sent Helaran and that it wasn’t the Skybreakers who sent him after Amaram. It seems much more like something they would do and also Amaram suspect’s Thaidakar. Maybe Helaran was both a  Skybreaker initiate and a member of the Ghostbloods. We do hear Mraize tell Shallan her being a radiant doesn’t mean she can’t join them. 

That's a good point, we definitely have textual evidence that the Ghostbloods don't like Amaram. Plus, unlike the Skybreakers, it might actually have been a challenge for the Ghostbloods to kill Amaram after he obtained Shards, so it would explain the lack of follow-up attempts.

However, I well say that if Helaran's goal is indeed to kill Amaram, he's almost hilarious (Helar-iously? Hmm, I'll leave the puns to Shallan) bad at his job. I'm taking another look at chapter 47 of WoK, and he's not being that efficient about it. He rides past Amaram and kills his horse first, then lets himself be distracted by Kaladin's squad moments before he's about to finish Amaram off. He spends way too long engaging Kaladin, and lets Amaram crawl away a good distance. As a full shardbearer, he should have just ignored Kaladin and crushed Amaram on the spot.

Also: a mini-theory I forgot to include (and will add to my original post):
Mraize's phrasing about Tien's death is interesting. The exact quote is "From our spying upon the Skybreakers, we have records showing the only member of Amaram's army to have bonded a spren was long since eliminated." Eliminated. Maybe I'm being a bit paranoid, but should we just believe the Skybreakers knew of Tien, yet did nothing? Tien's completely innocent of any crimes, so it protects him from their direct assassination but I wouldn't put it against the Skybreakers to pull a few strings and make sure a messenger boy winds up on the front lines of combat. If this mini-theory is true, then it has pretty big implications about how Kaladin might react towards the Skybreakers if he ever find this out.

[Honorless]

He should've become aware. Since he was already prepared to act as his own decoy. 

[GoWibble]

1 hour ago, Lightspine said:

Wow, I haven't seen that WoB before. Besides the Ghostbloods, Skybreakers, and Sons of Honor, the only other secret societies I can think of are the Pattern (Taravangian's peeps) and maybe the Dysian Aimians (aka sleepless immortals)? I'm not sure if the Dysian Aimians count, but they do seem to have a pretty sneaky surveillance network. Also, going off of what Shallan hears when she eavesdrops on Mraize, perhaps the mad herald Ishar (going by Tezim, warlord of Tukar) has a society of his own. At least, he's somebody the Ghostbloods keep an eye on. Maybe we should also include the 17th shard, since we see them searching for Hoid at the Purelake.

Still, that's a lot of secret societies that we seem to know absolutely nothing about. Yikes.

yep. I can't wait for a silverlight society reveal that is inevitable. Also, Hoid counts for one on his own. 

[Gderu]

Wow this is super impressive. I never thought about the possibility that Helaran was meant to kill Kaladin - if that is true, that answers a whole lot of questions about why the Kaladin was not killed already.

[IcaroRibeiro]

Quality thread. I'm giving you an up-vote 

[Lightspine]

2 hours ago, R J said:

He should've become aware. Since he was already prepared to act as his own decoy. 

Hmmm. I agree that it is possible, but far from definite, that Gavilar heard about Szeth's abilities while he was preparing to fight. However, descriptions of Szeth were so abuzz with rumor and misunderstanding that I doubt it would have been possible to completely rule out the possibility that he was a Skybreaker.

[Karger]

I did a long line by line analysis of this letter for someone else during an argument.  I came to some different conclusions but I still find your own interesting.

Spoiler

Quote

There are at least two major institutions on Roshar, other than ourselves, which presaged the return of the Voidbringers and the Desolations, the letter read.

This is a lie.  The GB know about the sleepless.  However by saying at least two they can claim that they suspected but did not know or something similar.
You are familiar with the first of these, the men who call themselves the Sons of Honor. The old king of Alethkar—the Blackthorn’s brother, Gavilar Kholin—was a driving force in their expansion. He brought Meridas Amaram into their fold.
True but... For people in the know this seems fairly obvious but it is likely not the extent of the GB knowledge as they are aware of the Heralds and as such know Gavilar was playing the Sons of Honor. 

As you no doubt discovered upon infiltrating Amaram’s mansion in the warcamps, the Sons of Honor explicitly worked for the return of the Desolations.

True by Amaram's own account although I don't think he new everything.

They believed that only the Voidbringers would cause the Heralds to show themselves—and they believed that a Desolation would restore both the Knights Radiant and the classical strength of the Vorin church. King Gavilar’s efforts to rekindle the Desolations are likely the true reason he was assassinated.

This is all true.  Gavilar was assassinated for trying to start a desolation and SoH's publicly stated goal was to kick of another round of heraldic epochs.

Though there were many in the palace that night who had reason to see him dead.

Lying by omission/implication.  A statement designed to impress how dependent Shallan is on the GBs for information.
A second group who knew the Desolations might return are the Skybreakers. Led by the ancient Herald Nalan’Elin—often simply called Nale—the Skybreakers are the only order of Radiants that did not betray its oaths during the Recreance. They have maintained a continuous clandestine line from ancient days.  Nale believed that men speaking the Words of other orders would hasten the return of the Voidbringers

True

We do not know how this could possibly be true, but as a Herald, Nale has access to knowledge and understanding beyond us.

True but... The GBs know he is crazy.  This a factually correct statement designed to leave Shallan with wrong information.

You should know that the Heralds are no longer to be seen as allies to man. Those that are not completely insane have been broken. Nale himself is ruthless, without pity or mercy. He has spent the last two decades—perhaps much longer—dealing with anyone close to bonding a spren. Sometimes he recruited these people, bonding them to highspren and making them Skybreakers. Others he eliminated. If the person had already bonded a spren, then Nale usually went in person to dispatch them. If not, he sent a minion.

Seems pretty true and we have verification.
A minion like your brother Helaran.
Your mother had intimate contact with a Skybreaker acolyte, and you know the result of that relationship.

You believe this is a lie however it seems way too much.  The GBs don't know what Shallan knows.  If she caught the acolyte say Skybreaker in context at the wrong moment as a child then she knows that they are lying to her and their story starts to unravel.  Also why bother lying to her about this?  Just say.  "We managed to come to an understanding with your brother and he decided to join us."  Gains you a few points, confuses your mark, and makes your victory seem inevitable sapping Shallan's will to resist.

Your brother was recruited because Nale was impressed with him.

True but I don't think they are using the normal value of impressed in this statement.  IE Nale could have thought.  "This one will make great cannon fodder."

Nale may also have learned, through means we do not understand,

Lie.  They found out about Tein.  They know how to track radiants or at least how to track radiant trackers.  However they again leave themselves on out by explaining that they don't fully understand the method they just use it.

that a member of your house was close to bonding a spren.

True.  This one makes sense based on observed data.

If this is true, they came to believe that Helaran was the one they wanted. They recruited him with displays of great power and Shards.

Yes but... I think the Skybreakers were at least a bit aware of Shallan but concluded that the bond was broken.

Quote

Helaran had not yet proved himself worthy of a spren bond. Nale is exacting with his recruits.

True via observed data.

Likely, Helaran was sent to kill Amaram as a test—either that or he took it upon himself as a way of proving his worthiness for knighthood.

Seems true.  You may have felt his opportunity was slipping and that he had to prove himself somehow or maybe Amaram was getting a little too close to Skybreaker operations.

It is also possible that the Skybreakers knew someone in Amaram’s army was close to bonding a spren,but I believe it likelier that the attack on Amaram was simply a strike against the Sons of Honor. From our spying upon the Skybreakers, we have records showing the only member of Amaram’s army to have bonded a spren was long since eliminated.

Same as the other blue
The bridgeman was not, so far as we understand, known to them. If he had been, he would certainly have been killed during his months as a slave.

Tidbit to remind Shallan how useful they are.

 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Karger

[Lightspine]

1 hour ago, Karger said:

I did a long line by line analysis of this letter for someone else during an argument.  I came to some different conclusions but I still find your own interesting.

  Hide contents

 

 

Wow, we did come to pretty different conclusions about the last few lines of the letter, although I believe we agree on most of what comes before.

You make a good point that we don't really know whether or not Amaram was doing anything at the time, and he could have been making himself more threatening to the Skybreakers. My analysis definitely assumed, perhaps too hastily, that the Sons of Honor weren't terribly productive following Gavilar's death. I believed this primarily because we haven't seen them actually influence the turn of events. Venli, being guided by Ulim, was the driving actor behind the new Desolation after Gavilar's assassination. The goal of the Sons is accomplished, but they weren't the ones who orchestrated it. But for all we know, they had some other scheme cooking which didn't fully execute before Venli's success.

You also bring up the possibility that Helaran was acting on his own because his "opportunity was slipping." That could maybe explain why there were no further attempts on Amaram's life.

However, I do very firmly believe that—although there are many plausible alternatives to the theory I gave on my original post—the interaction between the Skybreakers and the Sons of Honor is much more complicated than Mraize would have Shallan believe. Despite their opposite ideologies, something more is going on and they're clearly not especially intent killing each other off given the number of missed opportunities they've had to do so, and the lack of accusations that Gavilar and Amaram have against them.

Edit: Forgot to say this, but I'd be interested to read the thread in which you made that original line-by-line analysis! Could you link the thread or tell me its name? And thanks for the nice points and analysis as well; I like seeing how other people interpret the same text!

Edited June 26, 2020 by Lightspine
Interested in another thread

[Karger]

8 hours ago, Lightspine said:

Edit: Forgot to say this, but I'd be interested to read the thread in which you made that original line-by-line analysis! Could you link the thread or tell me its name? And thanks for the nice points and analysis as well; I like seeing how other people interpret the same text!

So the thread is here.

8 hours ago, Lightspine said:

My analysis definitely assumed, perhaps too hastily, that the Sons of Honor weren't terribly productive following Gavilar's death. I believed this primarily because we haven't seen them actually influence the turn of events

We still only really know about Amaram(of their numbers) and while fairly high ranking he is not a member of their leadership.  I see him more as an attack dog.  He is useful but I don't really see any competent organization entrusting him with command.  Interestingly Heleran was probably the same but in reverse.  He was not really trusted with any important Skybreaker intel just used to attack others.

8 hours ago, Lightspine said:

Despite their opposite ideologies, something more is going on and they're clearly not especially intent killing each other off given the number of missed opportunities they've had to do so, and the lack of accusations that Gavilar and Amaram have against them.

Most of both membership seems to be in hiding.  Killing each other off does not seem particularly productive.  In fact the GBs probably don't have anything against SoH being around provided they don't know anything important.  They will increase uncertainty and be dependent for information of those who have it(the GB probably).

[gloriousGlorfindel]

This is very interesting. I have always wondered if Helaran was Skybreaker "material". All the Skybreakers we have seen on screen tend to be preoccupied with following the law to the letter. Of course, everyone's favorite Murderer-in-white didn't give too much of a damnation about laws, but he did have his oathstone and executed (hehe) his master's wishes no matter the (spiritual) cost to him.

Helaran on the other hand (from what Shallan thinks of him) doesn't seemed too obssesed with the interpretation of the law. He seems more Windrunner material than Skybreaker. He seems very protective of Shallan until he just ups and leaves. 

I think that it is possible that the Skybreakers weren't involved at all. It is possible that it was just the Ghostbloods posing as the Skybreakers to get Helaran out of the picture to pursue whatever motive Luesh had. Then they also get some fodder that could potentially kill Amaram/other Sons of Honor. That's a double win for the Ghostbloods. Like you mention, the Skybreakers should have known that Shallan was the radiant, unless her mother and the acolyte did not share the information (which to me seems to be the beginnings of a Greek tragedy).

 

[Karger]

1 hour ago, gloriousGlorfindel said:

I think that it is possible that the Skybreakers weren't involved at all. It is possible that it was just the Ghostbloods posing as the Skybreakers to get Helaran out of the picture to pursue whatever motive Luesh had.

Quote

marcos

As of Words of Radiance, are there two groups of Skybreakers running around claiming to be Skybreakers?

Brandon Sanderson

Nale’s group is the only one I think I’ve had on-screen, so yeah I think there’s only one. Why would you ask that?

marcos

Was the group that Helaran joined the actual Skybreakers?

Brandon Sanderson

Oh, I get what you’re saying. Okay. Yes, there is one unified group that call themselves the Skybreakers, good question.

Calamity Philadelphia signing (Feb. 20, 2016)

I am afraid not.  That was actually largely what the debate was about when I analyzed the letter.

[Chiberty]

10 minutes ago, Karger said:

I am afraid not.  That was actually largely what the debate was about when I analyzed the letter.

That WoB doesn't say that Helaran joined the Skybreakers; it says that there is one group calling themselves the Skybreakers. That doesn't preclude the Ghostbloods from attributing other groups' actions to the Skybreakers.

[Karger]

30 minutes ago, ChickenLiberty said:

That WoB doesn't say that Helaran joined the Skybreakers; it says that there is one group calling themselves the Skybreakers. That doesn't preclude the Ghostbloods from attributing other groups' actions to the Skybreakers.

So this was my conclusion.  I suppose you can disagree but I don't think evidence supports that.

13 hours ago, Karger said:

You believe this is a lie however it seems way too much.  The GBs don't know what Shallan knows.  If she caught the acolyte say Skybreaker in context at the wrong moment as a child then she knows that they are lying to her and their story starts to unravel.  Also why bother lying to her about this?  Just say.  "We managed to come to an understanding with your brother and he decided to join us."  Gains you a few points, confuses your mark, and makes your victory seem inevitable sapping Shallan's will to resist.

 

[Chiberty]

1 minute ago, Karger said:

So this was my conclusion.  I suppose you can disagree but I don't think evidence supports that.

 

I wasn't trying to support either side, really; the points you've made do make sense. I was just saying that that WoB doesn't really support the argument being made. 

[Karger]

1 hour ago, ChickenLiberty said:

I wasn't trying to support either side, really; the points you've made do make sense. I was just saying that that WoB doesn't really support the argument being made. 

True we went over this in length in the discussion thread I linked if you are interested.

[Lightspine]

4 hours ago, Karger said:

Most of both membership seems to be in hiding.  Killing each other off does not seem particularly productive.  In fact the GBs probably don't have anything against SoH being around provided they don't know anything important.  They will increase uncertainty and be dependent for information of those who have it(the GB probably).

You're right, this could explain why they're not constantly sending assassins after Amaram. However, (Rhythm of War Prologue spoilers)

Spoiler

We know for a fact that Gavilar and Nale were collaborating about something concerning transportation to and from Braize (and trying to transport even further than Braize), which to me sounds like part of his SoH plotting. Even if it isn't, I find it hard to believe that Nale had no clue about what Gavilar was up to. You may be right about them being at odds now, but this may not have been the case during the time of Gavilar.

 

[Karger]

@Lightspine please post your theory here.

 

[ScavellTane]

Nales Skybreakers only hunt surgebinders. Thats my take.

[Lightspine]

On 6/26/2020 at 0:22 PM, Karger said:

@Lightspine please post your theory here.

 

Sure! Thanks for considering it worthy haha ^_^.