Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[theTruthshaper]

I am a new player, and I can't figure enough information to determine or suspect elims. But, I don't want an inactive cycle this early in the game.

[Mat]

This post is NAI. It's just something I noticed  

I seem to have a trend going where I accidentally jump on the opposing role C1. In Joe's MR, I used the wrong player list and condemned Straw accidentally. He turned out to actually be an elim. In Striker's LG I jumped on Araris because I didn't know his playstyle. He turned out to be the first Kandra.

Again, doesn't actually mean anything but just thought it was kinda funny  

[The Young Pyromancer]

Right, have a few minutes. 

I think Straw's a good player so I'll mimic them here, don't have time to do anything more. Fifth Scholar. Should be able to get on to change my vote if necessary.

[Frozen Mint]

 

12 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I think your condemnation of Gears is perhaps a bit hasty, Mint—he’s not contradicting himself, merely clarifying (he wants the initial votes spread out across a wide range of people to try to make Eliminators cast distinct votes).

Oh I agree that it's preemptive. It's just the best reasoning I had thus far. Still flimsy reasoning since it's still D1.

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Frozen Mint (mild elim)

They jumped on Gears right away, which I find suspicious since Gears is new, but IDK if they know that.

I didn't. I appreciate that you pointed it out though. Gears. I don't want to vote on any new players in the first couple of rounds so if y'all could let me know if I do, that'd be grand.

 

I should clarify, my primary motivation for voting on Gears was to provoke discussion. In my experience, the only way to start meaningful discussion on D1 is for someone to place the first reasoned (as opposed to random) vote and that reasoning is going to be tenacious no matter what so early in the game.

I have some commentary, but I'm going to read through the thread again and take some time to put together my thoughts before writing up a more detailed post.

[Gears]

The following is my analysis of the lynch train on Fifth. As far as I can tell, Fifth is merely voting because voting is mandatory and Straw is his highest suspicion. Silber voted Fifth because of a tinfoil theory concerning a xino-Fifth team. Devotary voted Fifth because they think multiple votes on an individual would provoke a response. Straw voted on Fifth in retaliation and to prompt discussion. Vapor and Pyro mimicked Straw and voted Fifth. Considering that voting is mandatory, I understand how Fifth could be a questionable individual, but watch for votes without reasoning like Vapor and Pyro. 

[Straw]

27 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I find it interesting Straw is trying to promote more discussion from Fifth- his post was the most discussion-heavy so far this cycle with multiple multi-quotes and things like that.

To clarify, when I say I want to promote discussion, I mean I want other people to chime in on our discussion. I do also want Fifth to clarify some of the stuff he's said.

@MysticLotus any reasoning for doing a random vote on an active player? You're not really helping with anything.

@Vapor reasoning for your vote on Fifth? What specifically do you think is suspicious?

@Matrim's Dice you said that Truthwatcher was doing exactly what a new elim would do. What specifically is that?

@The Young Pyromancer what makes you suspicious of Fifth? Also, just because someone is good at the game doesn't mean they're village?

Very interested by the Fifth bandwagon going on here.

Good that Gears has given some reads. I don't really disagree with any of them, but I do find it odd how much he emphasizes that his reads aren't do be trusted. Everyone is biased, and if you're biased too much we'll probably be able to figure it out from your reads.

Also, I made a list of players by experience during signups so here it is:

Spoiler

No Games
Gears
MysticLotus
The_Truthwatcher
Vapor
One Game
Ashbringer
Lahilt
Two Games
Matrim's Dice
Shard of Reading
TJ Shade
Returning
Eternum
Frozen Mint
Sparkrunner
Experienced
Devotary of Spontaneity
Experience
Fifth Scholar
Lord_Silberfarben
Mist
Straw
StrikerEZ
TheYoungPyromancer
Ventyl
Xinoehp512

Hopefully that's somewhat helpful. Also, players are at different levels so don't rely on this too much.

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, Straw said:

@Matrim's Dice you said that Truthwatcher was doing exactly what a new elim would do. What specifically is that?

I believe it was you who said a new player elim would try to be more cautious. While Gears came out swinging Truthwatcher didn't- very flimsy reasoning on my part, I know. Literally the best thing I've got at this point . 

And Mint posted. With a good defense. Ugh. Back to the drawing board. 

[+Lotus]

@Gears Oh thank you. Sorry, this is my first time.

[Eternum]

I'm back! Having read through the thread, I suppose I'll post my own reads/a short summary with my thoughts.

Gears goes for a random vote, says to leave inactives alone and also says he wouldn't be opposed to lynching them in consequent sentences. Supports a random lynch. Honestly very elim-looking at first glance, as both of those options help the elims far more than they help the village, but I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt as a new player. Generally agree with Straw's assessment, but their second comment where they explain they meant random voting until a train forms feels like it could be the result of advice by an elim teammate. Now posts their reads, which are nice to have. Slight elim read, possibly new player figuring it out.

Xino points out there is no information to be gained from a random lynch and doesn't seem scared to start a train, I like that. I also don't feel like him being fine with @Lahilt (who has yet to post) getting lynched is suspicious at all. There was no indicator that Lahilt was a bad target, and a poke vote with even some intent behind it is certainly more valuable than usual. No real read, but leaning village.

Straw is being proactive and trying to spark discussion, which I like. Not wanting to vote randomly is fair and not alignment-indicative. Spoken a relatively good amount, jumped immediately on Fifth's vote on them which I didn't really like as he's applying his own logic behind voting to another person's vote when the disagreements there have already been made obvious, but it's not really alignment-indicative. Mild village read.

Frozen Mint votes on Gears very quickly, but I find it understandable. Posted fairly early, didn't have much to go on and, at that point, had the most reasoned vote. Awfully aggressive, but understandable. Could go either way.

Matrim's Dice just posted, as they said they would. Gave their opinion on the main source of discussion so far, had new things to say. So far, mild village read.

No read on Striker, Shard of Reading or Mist. Striker has said more than the other two, but there's really nothing alignment-indicative anywhere in their posts.

Truthwatcher is honestly confusing me. Against random votes, still votes randomly, stands by vote and an hour later says they won't be online for the rest of the cycle so they wanted to have a vote up, which they could have said with their vote in the first place. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, but they're still the most blatantly suspicious person so far. Gut says elim, but I'm unsure.

Fifth said a lot of things I agree with in his post and I don't think his vote on Straw is very alignment-indicative. Most votes so far haven't really been based on heavy elim reads, so Straw getting up in arms about that is weird, as I mentioned earlier. I greatly dislike the bandwagon that started on him, since very few people have given actual reasoning behind their votes (and they really can't claim they're random votes at this point), but that doesn't mean anything about Fifth. So far, slight village read. Nothing leads me to believe otherwise.

Silberfabren seems very paranoid, something they admit themselves. Their suspicion of a Xino-Fifth team was odd, but not very alignment indicative since they didn't really push it at all. Seems fine with Truthwatcher's vote on them, also open with their opinions. Slight village read.

TJ Shade I'm unsure of. Says they want to hold onto their vote, then votes on Xino for a reason I don't quite understand. While the obligatory voting may have contributed, I don't like that they wanted reasoned votes but proceeded to vote for Xino for.. not much of a reason. No read, leaning slightly elim.

I would greatly appreciate it if Vapor and Pyro gave actual reasoning behind their votes on Fifth (see above for my thoughts on that). I don't like the votes, but they're not really alignment-indicative until I see them say something about them. I do like Pyro less than Vapor here, though: deferring to a more experienced player would be understandable if you were fairly sure they're confirmed, but this is Day 1. Voting on someone just because Straw did feels.. weird. Could even be an attempt at framing Straw if you think hard enough about it.

Tell me if I missed anyone or anything, a few distractions popped up as I was writing this and it's not as concise as I would have liked.

For now, I'll move my vote from Vapor to Pyro.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Eternum
Truthwatcher didn't take as long as I thought he did to explain their vote. explain why

[|TJ|]

2 hours ago, Straw said:

If anyone disagrees with my reasoning for any of these reads, or has a very different read on someone, I'd appreciate if they could say why so we can discuss it.

Actually I do find your reasoning kinda weird. You've given village reads to people seem to agree with the playing style you like and elim reads on most of the players who favor random voting. Any reasons other than players' favored style to give them village reads? Your elims reads are mostly fine and I find their reasons valid as you've gone above just their playing style.

[Ashbringer]

Hey everyone, I'm here, but like a few people here I'm going to be balancing this with LG66 for a few days, along with, you know, life. I'll see if I can do some reads later, but my experience with D1 voting is... well, everyone in LG66 knows how well that went...

I'm used to doing role analysis over post analysis, so I can look at game facts over just what I think people are saying. I'll post with a poke vote soon.

[Mat]

As it is Father's Day in the USA I will probably be inactive for a few hours, possibly even until the end of the cycle. 

Here is a vote to avoid the filter. Pyro's vote seemed really weird for an experienced player, pointed out by Eternum. Actually, I agree with basically everything Eternum said there.

Maybe will have time to pop back in. I don't really like the Fifth bandwagon.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[The Young Pyromancer]

Right, back on for a bit. I didn't have time to read the thread and form my own opinions, so I placed a vote that others were using to pressure someone, as that would be the most useful thing atm. Fifth, as, after looking things over, there's not really any suspicion of them.

Straw seems a bit off to me, a little like MR 42 where we were elims together.

[Straw]

39 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Actually I do find your reasoning kinda weird. You've given village reads to people seem to agree with the playing style you like and elim reads on most of the players who favor random voting. Any reasons other than players' favored style to give them village reads? Your elims reads are mostly fine and I find their reasons valid as you've gone above just their playing style.

This isn't really true? I've given elim reads on:

-Frozen Mint

-Fifth Scholar

-Lord_Silberfarben

I'm pretty sure Fifth is the only one of those people who is in favor of random voting?

I'd appreciate if you could give some examples.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Could circle vote.

[Straw]

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, back on for a bit. I didn't have time to read the thread and form my own opinions, so I placed a vote that others were using to pressure someone, as that would be the most useful thing atm. Fifth, as, after looking things over, there's not really any suspicion of them.

Straw seems a bit off to me, a little like MR 42 where we were elims together.

Just saw this, and it's really interesting that you automatically back down the second someone questions you. Feels like you were trying to take advantage of the Fifth push and now you're trying to get out of the spotlight.

What exactly is off about me?

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Could circle vote.

If you mean everyone voting on one other person so there's a vote on everyone, then that's a horrible idea. Why would we want a completely random elimination on D1?

Fifth. Pyro. Anyone have a vote count ATM? I think that should tie Fifth and Pyro, but IDK.

[|TJ|]

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

TJ Shade I'm unsure of. Says they want to hold onto their vote, then votes on Xino for a reason I don't quite understand. While the obligatory voting may have contributed, I don't like that they wanted reasoned votes but proceeded to vote for Xino for.. not much of a reason. No read, leaning slightly elim.

Well at the time I did not find anything odd about any other players. Mint was a bit aggressive, but they've since asserted they did not know Gears was a new player. Truthwatcher's behaviour was normal for a new player. Straw and Fifth's discussion was NAI though I did find Fifth's lack of reasoning on the reason they voted on Straw is a bit odd. Rest was just poke votes. Among them, xino changing their stance seemed odd. A bit different. Granted the reasoning is a bit weak, but it was better than anything I had at that point, and I did not know whether I would be coming back again. I'll admit I was a bit biased in my voting. I did not want to vote on new players or returning players, so xino seemed a fine choice (add to the different style of play)

Fifth's bandwagon is really weird to be honest. Lord Silberfarben, you voted on Fifth because you thought of a xino-Fifth team up. Some have already pointed out that it's tinfoil so I won't repeated that. But could you explain why you chose Fifth over xino? Especially after just agreeing with everything they said?( I did miss this initially but I went back to check on why players voted for Fifth when I found this.) @Lord_Silberfarben 

EDIT:

xinoehp

Edited June 21, 2020 by TJ Shade
Forgot to green out previous vote

[Gears]

Of the two lynch targets [Fifth and Pyro] I suspect Pyro the most. 

[The Young Pyromancer]

Just now, Straw said:

If you mean everyone voting on one other person so there's a vote on everyone, then that's a horrible idea. Why would we want a completely random elimination on D1?

I'm saying for people who might not be online later, voting on each other might be a good way to fulfill the requirement.

Also, the fifth vote was never meant to last. It was a placeholder until I could get on later and actually look at stuff.

[Frozen Mint]

43 minutes ago, Gears said:

The following is my analysis of the lynch train on Fifth. As far as I can tell, Fifth is merely voting because voting is mandatory and Straw is his highest suspicion. Silber voted Fifth because of a tinfoil theory concerning a xino-Fifth team. Devotary voted Fifth because they think multiple votes on an individual would provoke a response. Straw voted on Fifth in retaliation and to prompt discussion. Vapor and Pyro mimicked Straw and voted Fifth. Considering that voting is mandatory, I understand how Fifth could be a questionable individual, but watch for votes without reasoning like Vapor and Pyro. 

I agree. I'm not against lynching Fifth but I'm not a fan of voting to hop on a train unless there's a specific reason for it (like Devotary's). Not that I'm particularly suspicious of Vapor and Pyro. Vapor's new and Pyro said they'd be busy this cycle. But I really hope that no one else jumps on the train without providing some reasoning.

edit: So Pyro's back and retracted his vote which seems strange? For now I'm just going to take that as he managed to get some free time. Also we no longer have a train on Fifth which... I'm glad we've exploring a broad range of possibilities. But I would really like for @Fifth Scholar to respond to the accusations. Hoping he will do that even without the train on him though, considering all the attention he's gotten.

 

1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Could circle vote.

What does circle voting mean?

 

In general, I'd like to hear more from 

 @Shard of Reading @MysticLotus @Mist @Experience @Ventyl @StrikerEZ @Lahilt @Sparkrunner

Long list. Sorry. 

Some reads:

Gears - mild village. Someone already mentioned this (forgot who) but I agree that a new player casting the first vote is unlikely to be elim.

Matrim's Dice - slight elim. Generally seems to be promoting discussion and wants to be thoughtful about his vote. But I wonder if the hesitation to vote might be an elim delay tactic. It's easier to feign innocence if you get more involved in things later rather than sooner.

Straw - mild village. I didn't like his idea about waiting to vote until he has a reason so early on but that seems more like a genuine disagreement. He's done a lot to promote discussion since then. One thing I will point out that it's kind of strange Straw complained about the current voting trend when he hadn't done anything to try and influence it.

Silber - slight elim. Jumped on the Fifth-xino team idea rather quickly. Before you all jump on me for hypocrisy, my main complaint isn't that it was hasty.  Elims are unlikely to support each other out in the open so early on. There's no reason for them to at this point and it just makes them more suspicious. This could just be a disagreement but I feel like this kind of grouping could also be used as an elim tactic. Plants the seed in our heads. Proposing a pairing now could be a distraction tactic.

Fifth - slight elim. Their initial post is strange. They want meaningful discussion but also say they're okay with random votes.

TJ Shade - mild village. They seemed to be laying low at first which I thought was suspicious but their recent commentary on Straw seems more helpful and less bandwagon-y.

Xino - slight elim. This is more instinct than anything (sorry xino). They seem somewhat unpredictable and also noncommittal. This might just have to do with the nature of stab voting? I'm not really sure what that is.  But I'm not feeling great about them.

I'll vote later. Mostly because this post took forever and I want a little SE break now.

 

@Gears You need to take back your last vote by writing that person's name in green before you can vote on a new person (if you did and I missed it, apologies, this thread is moving faster than my brain can lol).

Vote Count:
Fifth Scholar (3) - Lord Silberfarben, Devotary of Spontaneity, Vapor
Lahilt (1) - Xinoeph
Gears (1) - Frozen Mint
Eternum (1) - StrikerEZ
Straw (2) - Fifth Scholar, MysticLotus
Pyro (3) - Eternum, Matrim's Dice, Straw
Xinoehp (1) - TJ
Lord Silberfarben (1) - Truthwatcher

[Vapor]

I was voting Fifth Scholar because I wasn't really sure who to vote. I've been reading, and I think Straw or Pyro should be voted out because they seem suspicious. Thus, I will put a tentative vote on Straw

[Frozen Mint]

That vote count is out of order FYI, so if someone wants to change it from most votes to least, feel free. I was having some formatting issues so I don't think I'll edit it.

[Straw]

Just now, Vapor said:

I was voting Fifth Scholar because I wasn't really sure who to vote. I've been reading, and I think Straw or Pyro should be voted out because they seem suspicious. Thus, I will put a tentative vote on Straw

Could you please provide any reasons for your votes or suspicions?

3 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

One thing I will point out that it's kind of strange Straw complained about the current voting trend when he hadn't done anything to try and influence it.

What do you mean by this? I think I've complained about the random voting and the Fifth bandwagon. I've argued quite a bit about the random voting, and I've done my best to encourage people to give reasons for votes. As for the Fifth bandwagon, I've done my best to get Vapor and Pyro to say why they were suspicious of Fifth.

6 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

edit: So Pyro's back and retracted his vote which seems strange? For now I'm just going to take that as he managed to get some free time. Also we no longer have a train on Fifth which... I'm glad we've exploring a broad range of possibilities. But I would really like for @Fifth Scholar to respond to the accusations. Hoping he will do that even without the train on him though, considering all the attention he's gotten.

Yeah, I've moved onto Pyro for now. If Fifth doesn't respond or responds and says something weird, I'll move back to him. I might also move back to him if I feel like the pressure on him is too low.

[Vapor]

My reason to vote Straw is less significant than my reason to vote Pyro. I was voting Straw because he seemed suspicious and that was what others were doing at the time I wrote that. I am now going to vote Pyro because he is acting suspicious and strange. He retracted his vote for no main reason. He also wanted to have a random vote.

[Eternum]

45 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Well at the time I did not find anything odd about any other players. Mint was a bit aggressive, but they've since asserted they did not know Gears was a new player. Truthwatcher's behaviour was normal for a new player. Straw and Fifth's discussion was NAI though I did find Fifth's lack of reasoning on the reason they voted on Straw is a bit odd. Rest was just poke votes. Among them, xino changing their stance seemed odd. A bit different. Granted the reasoning is a bit weak, but it was better than anything I had at that point, and I did not know whether I would be coming back again. I'll admit I was a bit biased in my voting. I did not want to vote on new players or returning players, so xino seemed a fine choice (add to the different style of play)

I'd like to point out that between you saying you wanted to make a reasoned vote and you voting on Xino, the only people who posted were me and Devotary. You did admit it wasn't much of an elim read, but still. We'll see. Other things to deal with right now.

Specifically, how flip-floppy Vapor's votes have been. It's weird, even for a new player. I would have genuinely rather had a tie between Fifth and Pyro -- puts pressure on the main suspects so far -- and you switching your vote twice this quickly is weird to say the least. 

45 minutes ago, Straw said:

Just saw this, and it's really interesting that you automatically back down the second someone questions you. Feels like you were trying to take advantage of the Fifth push and now you're trying to get out of the spotlight.

Straw said this about Pyro and it's worth noting that Vapor has done this exact thing twice now.

15 minutes ago, Vapor said:

My reason to vote Straw is less significant than my reason to vote Pyro. I was voting Straw because he seemed suspicious and that was what others were doing at the time I wrote that. I am now going to vote Pyro because he is acting suspicious and strange. He retracted his vote for no main reason. He also wanted to have a random vote.

This is just weird. At the time of your vote, nobody was voting Straw, your reasons for voting Pyro are simply parroting what we've said so far and, heck, what you're doing here is almost exactly why I voted for Pyro in the first place. I'm gonna keep my vote where it is, but there's a lot to unpack here.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Eternum
Clarification at the end.