A Joe in the Bush

Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

1,451 posts in this topic

27 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I agree with the Buggy bit that Sart said. I'd be happy with a lynch on them, or Xino, as I believe they still haven't provided a reason for their survival. 

did provide a reason - I was a gambling tycoon. Just because the elim kill failed last night doesn't mean you have to go for me with the lynch today :P 

59 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Pyro did say it wasn't a constable- and once again, since we're all working together here to find Bleeder- I'm inclined to believe him.

I'm disinclined to believe Pyro at this point, honestly. I mean, he talked in thread about plans to kill DeTess, and said he would have framed Bleeder for it. If he's willing to mislead the village on something like that when he says we should work together, I don't know that I trust him on smaller stuff either. 

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1 minute ago, Bugsy said:

did provide a reason - I was a gambling tycoon. Just because the elim kill failed last night doesn't mean you have to go for me with the lynch today :P 

I meant Xino in that post. Sorry if it was hard to tell.

1 minute ago, Bugsy said:

I mean, he talked in thread about plans to kill DeTess, and said he would have framed Bleeder for it. If he's willing to mislead the village on something like that when he says we should work together, I don't know that I trust him on smaller stuff either. 

That was actually a reason to trust me, as I COULD have done that, but chose not to to preserve our alliance.

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2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I meant Xino in that post. Sorry if it was hard to tell.

That was actually a reason to trust me, as I COULD have done that, but chose not to to preserve our alliance.

If I'm remembering right, you said you didn't only because her analysis was inaccurate :P Which is it?

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19 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

If I'm remembering right, you said you didn't only because her analysis was inaccurate :P 

That was why I didn't kill her, not why I told the thread that I would've. I told the thread for the alliance, in the interest of being more open. 

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1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I agree with the Buggy bit that Sart said. I'd be happy with a lynch on them, or Xino, as I believe they still haven't provided a reason for their survival. 

Hmm? I was a Gambling Tycoon.

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Well, based on the discussion I'm feeling inclined to think that Sart isn't bleeder, until we can get that read from kynedath. The problem is that I now have to move my vote. I believe that the elims were the cause of at least one kill, but I think the only way to tell if the second one was a bartender is if someone steps forward and claims so. I'm going to place my vote on Xino. 

Ack, and they are now saying that they were a gambling tycoon. I mean, that could defiantly work, but it could also be an easy out for bleeder. I'll leave the vote on them for now, and see if something better comes out. I would also be willing for a pyro tie vote, although that probably wouldn't work very well if elims have even one vote manipulation.

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Signing off, for 10 hours or so, to sleep.

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Right, Xino's telling the truth, or at least they aren't Bleeder.

Bugsy would be a better lynch right now.

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6 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, Xino's telling the truth, or at least they aren't Bleeder.

Bugsy would be a better lynch right now.

Gonna offer any evidence for that, or is it just because I'm not an elim and xino is? :P 

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I agree Sart is mostly not Bleeder. I mean, the real Bleeder probably saw our discussion to prove Sart's innocence and decided not to kill this cycle to pin it on him. This is actually brilliant for us because 

1. If Sart indeed is Bleeder, we'll get to know in the next cycle via Kynedath. I believe Sart will try to prove his innocence again by Smuggling? (NO ONE ROLEBLOCK HIM THIS TIME)

2. If Sart isn't Bleeder, then Bleeder is definitely hiding behind him. So as long as Sart keeps Smuggling each cycle, Bleeder cannot kill since it'll clear Sart. 

Bleeder would also try to push Sart lynch since after Sart is dead they don't have to pretend to imitate him, and can start the kills again.

Cycle 4 kills

Pyro confirmed that Sart was role-blocked. This means

1. Sart was Bleeder and couldn't execute Bleeder kill (he wouldn't do this anyway even if he was Bleeder since he wanted to prove his innocence). Highly unlikely.

2. Sart was being framed. Bleeder didn't know about the role-block. He decides to scan or use his second ability to show lack of Bleeder kill as a proof for Bleeder!Sart. Highly likely.

3. But the lack of a claim from village bartender about their target is very disturbing. Village Bartender, please confirm if your target was one of Bugsy or Xino (here or via PM). If you were role-blocked, there's a high chance Bugsy or Xino are Bleeder and they attacked themselves to avoid suspicion. We're not even sure that we have a Bartender remaining anymore. Assuming, of course elim kill wasn't role-blocked. As far as I know elim kill cannot be role-blocked, right? @The Young Pyromancercan you confirm if elim kill was role blocked or not? 

If we don't get a message from village Bartender, the 3rd case is highly likely. If that happens, @Bugsy would be my prime Bleeder suspect. 

We really shouldn't lynch Sart this cycle. 

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10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

If you were role-blocked, there's a high chance Bugsy or Xino are Bleeder and they attacked themselves to avoid suspicion

"Attacked themselves to avoid suspicion" isn't something that makes a whole lot of sense to me, personally. One of the distinguishing characteristics of Bleeder is that they survive attacks at night - putting myself in a position of having just done so would be rather dumb of me, and it's only served to draw suspicion to me this cycle. 

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

If we don't get a message from village Bartender, the 3rd case is highly likely. If that happens, @Bugsy would be my prime Bleeder suspect. 

You're right, I don't have a provable alibi. But if you look at what I've argued historically, I just don't see how my actions make sense as a Bleeder suspect. The lynch this cycle was going to be targeted at the elims, and I've been a major factor in refocusing it on Bleeder. I've been doing that because I believe so long as Bleeder is alive we're perpetually a cycle from losing. I don't think that's exactly the sort of stance Bleeder would take.

Plus, I tried to arrange a tied vote last night that came pretty storming close to succeeding. That would have wiped out two Bleeder suspects (or 3 in your book, since I know you were suspicious of Pyro). If I were so desperate to hide behind others as Bleeder, would I attempt a move to take so many of the others out? 

My saying so might make it an IKYK in the eyes of some, but if I were actually Bleeder it would put me at a real material disadvantage. There are only so many plausible Bleeder suspects, and because my role isn't provable, I'm one of them. IKYKs involve information that's meaningless because it could be a bluff or a double bluff or, well, you get the idea. This information isn't meaningless - Bleeder wouldn't voluntarily handicap herself like that, just to deflect suspicion that didn't even exist. 

Does anyone have an up-to-date votecount going? I'm interested in seeing what it looks like.

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me agree with tess they pyro has outlived his usefulness. me would move me vote but since me will impersonate, my vote dont matter.

about my idea with ties tho - we could set up a multi tie on elim suspects. they might be able to mess with one or two but they wont be able to get all of them. me thinking pyro shard and archivist.

edit: or xino - just remembered tj analysisizing that linked him with straw quite nicely

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2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

me agree with tess they pyro has outlived his usefulness. me would move me vote but since me will impersonate, my vote dont matter.

about my idea with ties tho - we could set up a multi tie on elim suspects. they might be able to mess with one or two but they wont be able to get all of them. me thinking pyro shard and archivist.

edit: or xino - just remembered tj analysisizing that linked him with straw quite nicely

I like xino as a target. If he flips elim, it should be pretty clear proof that - as the only other kill target - I was elim killed last night. (Sart)

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Posted (edited)

Xino's not an elim. Maybe after this you'll trust me.

The elim kill was not roleblocked. It WAS redirected though, as hinted at by the writeup.

Xino was soft-cleared because Joe messed up. Want more info, be an elim.

EDIT: It turns out Joe was making a very clever joke that I didn't get, and so wants me to say that I was wrong, and have no idea about Xino's alignment. Still keeping my vote though.

Edited by The Young Pyromancer
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47 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

"Attacked themselves to avoid suspicion" isn't something that makes a whole lot of sense to me, personally. One of the distinguishing characteristics of Bleeder is that they survive attacks at night - putting myself in a position of having just done so would be rather dumb of me, and it's only served to draw suspicion to me this cycle. 

As Matrim mentioned, you could've been extorted to attack on yourself. 

47 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Plus, I tried to arrange a tied vote last night that came pretty storming close to succeeding. That would have wiped out two Bleeder suspects (or 3 in your book, since I know you were suspicious of Pyro). If I were so desperate to hide behind others as Bleeder, would I attempt a move to take so many of the others out? 

 

If you were Bleeder, that would just eliminate more people and make it easier for you to find Winsting from a smaller pool, since you'd know they are not Bleeder.

But I agree, you seemed to be honestly helping to find Bleeder. At this point, you aren't a prime suspect. But that would change if Village Bartender does not claim his kill or if Sart flips non-Bleeder. At that point, it'd be either you or xino. Since apparently we're lynching xino this cycle, if he doesn't flip Bleeder, then you'd be our main suspect.

51 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Does anyone have an up-to-date votecount going? I'm interested in seeing what it looks like.

Xino (4) - Lord Sil, Sart, Experience, Bugsy

Pyro (3) - Kynedath, DeTess, TJ

Sart (1) - little wilson, Matrim

Bugsy (1) - Pyro 

I'd love for a Xino/Pyro tie. 

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17 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

If you were Bleeder, that would just eliminate more people and make it easier for you to find Winsting from a smaller pool, since you'd know they are not Bleeder.

Issue here is, we know none of them were Winsting. Pyro definitely wasn’t because he’s an elim. Sart and HH definitely weren’t because Pyro knows Winsting’s identity and wouldn’t call him out as a target when there’s a meaningful chance it’d actually cause his death.

All a tie like that does is remove potential options for who Bleeder is, not for who Winsting is. It wouldn’t benefit me as Bleeder whatsoever.

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Posted (edited)

9 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Lylo is when the village is one mislynch away from losing. In this case that would mean that one more mislynch would result in the elims having a 3/5 majority over the village and dispersing the party without any argument. I don't think we're very close to this right now, which is why I think we can focus on Bleeder right now.

Actually, we're at Lylo the moment the village and the elims reach parity (equal numbers). After that the game is practically over for the village, and the only remaining question is whether Bleeder or the elims win. There's 21 people alive right now. With an average of 3 deaths per cycle we'll be down to 12 in three cycles. Assuming 6 elims remaining(original team size of 8) means we have at most three more mislynches before parity. And the lynch on Bleeder will count as one of these mislynches. So things are reasonably close at this point. I'm totally on board for a pyro/xino tie btw, which means that my vote needs to remain where it is for now.

Edited by DeTess
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8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

As Matrim mentioned, you could've been extorted to attack on yourself. 

I don't believe I ever suggested that. As far as Bleeder goes, Bugsy is one of my last choices. I did say extortionists could target Bleeder suspects now, as an idea, but I never said they did on Bugsy.

Reading these posts from last night, it doesn't look like the Sart lynch is happening. Which personally, I still think is the best bet, but I'll say Kynedath's plan is a go. Xino

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So, I have not really have had much to say during cycle and I think that at the very least it is time to vote. From what I have seen people are either voting on Sart or Xino. After going back and reading all the arguments people have made, I believe that the best thing would be to say Xino. 

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I am certainly for tie on Pyro, but given the amount of vote manip that we've seen in use, I doubt that I'll survive over him.

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Just now, xinoehp512 said:

I am certainly for tie on Pyro, but given the amount of vote manip that we've seen in use, I doubt that I'll survive over him.

Does this confuse anyone else? Did Xino say he was okay with being lynched alongside Pyro?

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9 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I don't believe I ever suggested that. As far as Bleeder goes, Bugsy is one of my last choices. I did say extortionists could target Bleeder suspects now, as an idea, but I never said they did on Bugsy.

Yeah that's what I meant. That you suggested the plan, and not that they should target Bugsy. 

Retrospectively, I don't think this happened since the extortionist would claim that it happened.

2 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

So, I have not really have had much to say during cycle and I think that at the very least it is time to vote. From what I have seen people are either voting on Sart or Xino. After going back and reading all the arguments people have made, I believe that the best thing would be to say Xino. 

We're also thinking of lynching Pyro along with Xino. What do you think about that @Shard of Reading?

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The thing is we know that Pyro is an elim and so when we lynch them we lose the ability to learn anything from them. You know the saying keep your friends close and your enemies closer? That is the idea. If we lynch Pyro we could lose a source of information, and we know that the elims have a lot of vote manipulators based off of straw's vote and so a tied lynch is not likely to work out well because they get to chose who they lynch.

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Just now, Shard of Reading said:

The thing is we know that Pyro is an elim and so when we lynch them we lose the ability to learn anything from them. You know the saying keep your friends close and your enemies closer? That is the idea. If we lynch Pyro we could lose a source of information, and we know that the elims have a lot of vote manipulators based off of straw's vote and so a tied lynch is not likely to work out well because they get to chose who they lynch.

I got similar thoughts. While I think this statement was spawned off being an elim yourself, I agree. A tied vote would be great, but because it's unlikely to work out I'd rather lynch Xino.

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19 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Does this confuse anyone else? Did Xino say he was okay with being lynched alongside Pyro?

I would be if it meant that Pyro would die. We've known he's an elim for four cycles now, and we still haven't done anything about it. And are we really any closer to finding Bleeder?

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