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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting


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18 minutes ago, little wilson said:

oh-ho. this seems to be tacit, unintentional acknowledgement that said analysisizing is accurate

Nope, actually. Detess made several base mistakes in her reasoning.

20 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Xino was bartender kill, but protected by bodyguard. Either a village bartender and elim bodyguard, or vise versa

Neither of those two scenarios is true.

12 minutes ago, little wilson said:

dont read troll to me. pyro generally obvious troll. at least me think me can tell when he trolling and when he not.

I have gotten several trolly posts past you so far, so I doubt that.

EDIT: @TJ Shade I claimed Sart was RBed

Edited by The Young Pyromancer
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46 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Dear Winsting:

Sart was Roleblocked. Sart.

That was very unhelpful, as now we can't confirm his alibi in any way. Of course, it doesn't matter much for the elims if we spent more time going after non-elims that might be bleeder which we could have cleared, right?

Also, what makes you so certain that bleeder didn't kill this night? Or are you claiming that the elims where responsible for both kills?

27 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

In other news, if Sart ISN'T Bleeder, this means Bleeder has been scanning, trying to find Winsting and then kill them while giving away minimal information. Thus, I would ask @DeTess to stop analyzing who's an elim, as that makes it increasingly easy for Bleeder to guess who Winsting is, as they can eliminate all the elims. This also has the side effect of it being impossible to judge how close Bleeder is to finding Winsting, as they could have just scanned them and be about to win this cycle.

Not a chance. Everyone else might have forgotten, but the elims are just as much the village's enemy as Bleeder is. I do appreciate the fact that I'm apparently getting pretty close with my analysis, as you wouldn't be worried about ti otherwise

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1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

If everyone is convinced of this, then why are we lynching him?

Because we are all assuming that the probable lack of a Bleeder kill makes Sart Bleeder.

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Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

Because we are all assuming that the probable lack of a Bleeder kill makes Sart Bleeder.

It's possible that lack of Bleeder kill means Bleeder role-blocked Sart to frame him. 

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5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

It's possible that lack of Bleeder kill means Bleeder role-blocked Sart to frame him. 

Yes, this is technically true. Honestly, I'm for the Sart lynch because it really is the only thing that I can think of to do at this point. We have no other good Bleeder suspects, and no other good elim suspects other then one who claimed. I'm at a loss and Sart seems like the best bet. I don't want this to turn into another HH.

Edit: Actually, Pyro probably is claiming Sart was roleblocked because one of his fellow elims roleblocked him. Pyro knows that the elim who RB'd Sart isn't Bleeder, and therefore that makes Sart Bleeder. @The Young Pyromancer confirmation of an elim RBing Sart?

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

It's possible that lack of Bleeder kill means Bleeder role-blocked Sart to frame him. 

No. The one who roleblocked Sart is someone who's been cleared. I've been coordinating with them in PMs.

9 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I do appreciate the fact that I'm apparently getting pretty close with my analysis, as you wouldn't be worried about ti otherwise

If you were getting close, we would have killed you, Bleeder or no. Sorry, but it's the truth. I also wouldn't have tried to get you to stop if you were getting close, as I know that has a good chance of making you double down.

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14 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

If you were getting close, we would have killed you, Bleeder or no. Sorry, but it's the truth. I also wouldn't have tried to get you to stop if you were getting close, as I know that has a good chance of making you double down.

No, I don't think you would have. Killing me like that would have shot your entire 'elims and village working together' narrative to pieces, and would have made people take a close look at what I said that made you do that. And make no mistake, at this point its clear that it is just a narrative. The RB on Sart makes no sense if the elims where being honest in working with the village. If Sart had been allowed to act, we'd either have confirmation of his alibi, or confirmation of him being bleeder. But it is not in the elim's interest to confirm alibi's on non-elims through non-lethal means. Sure, it might make the hunt on bleeder take slightly longer, but it'll also weaken the village even more.

I am coming to regret being against an early Pyro lynch. I assumed he wouldn't be able to harm the village much, but its clear he's managed to get most of the village wasting time on a hunt that should be done through power-roles. So if it takes a wasted lynch on Pyro to get everyone in the village to focus on all their enemies again, I guess that's what I'll have to resort too. 

19 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Yes, this is technically true. Honestly, I'm for the Sart lynch because it really is the only thing that I can think of to do at this point. We have no other good Bleeder suspects, and no other good elim suspects other then one who claimed. I'm at a loss and Sart seems like the best bet. I don't want this to turn into another HH.

Sart has a very good chance of being another HH. And after that, we won't be able to afford to spend any lynches on bleeder anymore, because we'd be butting up against Lylo. The reason we have no clues for finding the elims is because for the past two cycles, the village hasn't really been looking.

 

edit: I apologize for coming across as overly cranky. I'm mostly annoyed with myself because I missed such an obvious play by the elims to distract the village. It's actually a really good play by Pyro and something he should be commended on after the game is over.

Edited by DeTess
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2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Man, you should have just let him Smuggle a vote and prove his innocence. Now it could be case of Bleeder simply scanning for Winsting which would explain the lack of Bleeder kill. 

...Or let him Smuggle a vote and 'prove' his innocence. The second option just means we need to find Bleeder even faster.

2 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Sart has a very good chance of being another HH. And after that, we won't be able to afford to spend any lynches on bleeder anymore, because we'd be butting up against Lylo. The reason we have no clues for finding the elims is because for the past two cycles, the village hasn't really been looking.

I do see this point. I am interested on why you think Sart has a 'very good chance'. HH was random, simply because he was sort of inactive. Sart has a disprovable alibi and was roleblocked the cycle without a Bleeder kill.

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3 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I do see this point. I am interested on why you think Sart has a 'very good chance'. HH was random, simply because he was sort of inactive. Sart has a disprovable alibi and was roleblocked the cycle without a Bleeder kill.

Sart also has a provable alibi. And bleeder has shown to be willing to spend cycles scanning, so even if there is no bleeder kill (how do we know that? Have the elims claimed which attack was theirs?) It doesn't mean anything. Sart being roleblocked means we know less than if he hadn't been, rather than more.

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8 minutes ago, DeTess said:

edit: I apologize for coming across as overly cranky. I'm mostly annoyed with myself because I missed such an obvious play by the elims to distract the village. It's actually a really good play by Pyro and something he should be commended on after the game is over.

TBH, I'm mostly just mucking around. Most of my 'plays' have been foiled.

10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Man, you should have just let him Smuggle a vote and prove his innocence. Now it could be case of Bleeder simply scanning for Winsting which would explain the lack of Bleeder kill. 

I do not represent the entire elim team. The Sart action was put in after I was offline. I have asked the Elim in question to discuss their actions sooner in the future.

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I'm waiting for Joe on something before the elim kill is discussed.

And DeTess, I could have gotten away with your kill easily. I'd have blamed it on Bleeder, as you were coordinating the anti-bleeder brigade TM along with me, and Bleeder would probably prefer to lynch me in-thread, wasting the village's lynch.

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She was always advocating on focusing on elims. If DeTess had died, it would be so obvious that the kill order came from you, rather than Bleeder.

I'm also wondering why Bleeder hasn't killed you yet, since you're orchestrating the whole Bleeder Hunt. 

Also, what's Lylo? 

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1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

She was always advocating on focusing on elims. If DeTess had died, it would be so obvious that the kill order came from you, rather than Bleeder.

Level 2: Bleeder killed DeTess so that you'd focus on elims, thinking that I put in the kill.

The elim kill was redirected, as the writeup suggested. I do not currently know who it was redirected to.

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

I'm also wondering why Bleeder hasn't killed you yet, since you're orchestrating the whole Bleeder Hunt

Because several people have speculated that the elims have a BG. And also, who's to say Bleeder didn't try? Another point in favor of Sart.

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28 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Also, what's Lylo? 

Lylo is when the village is one mislynch away from losing. In this case that would mean that one more mislynch would result in the elims having a 3/5 majority over the village and dispersing the party without any argument. I don't think we're very close to this right now, which is why I think we can focus on Bleeder right now.

Edit: Dang it, ninja'd by Kynedath

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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5 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

In this case that would mean that one more mislynch would result in the elims having a 3/5 majority over the village and dispersing the party without any argument. I don't think we're very close to this right now, which is why I think we can focus on Bleeder right now.

Correct. You are VERY far away from that.

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probs shouldnt assume me trust every post pyro or that me comment about every post you troll. me ignore most of your posts regardless so me pretty sure me havent fallen for any of your trolling.

me think we should go for tie on pyro and someone else. given possiblity of ties me not quite as worried about having gone after bleeder the last couple cycles.

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18 minutes ago, little wilson said:

probs shouldnt assume me trust every post pyro or that me comment about every post you troll. me ignore most of your posts regardless so me pretty sure me havent fallen for any of your trolling.

me think we should go for tie on pyro and someone else. given possiblity of ties me not quite as worried about having gone after bleeder the last couple cycles.

Do we know how much vote manipulation the elims have? Because if we go for a straight tie, I’d assume they could rescue pyro

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5 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Do we know how much vote manipulation the elims have? Because if we go for a straight tie, I’d assume they could rescue pyro

no but we wouldnt be going for straight tie cuz me got impersonation

edit: me sad me didnt pull from hh to sart cuz then all three woulda died.

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53 minutes ago, little wilson said:

no but we wouldnt be going for straight tie cuz me got impersonation

edit: me sad me didnt pull from hh to sart cuz then all three woulda died.

It's also sad because I was removing Pyro's vote (It was on me at the time I submitted the order) but got roleblocked. We could have at least killed an eliminator, but nope.

And now I'm getting lynched again, because of the constables roleblocking me. It's an annoyingly effective strategy. We also still don't know where the second kill came from, whether it was Bleeder or if it was a Bartender. We also have two people survive attempts on their lives. I'll amp up the pressure Xinoehp. I'm also still suspicious of Bugsy. He fits if Bleeder was inactive Cycle 1, and now he's survived a kill. However, no one is voting on him, so Xino it is.

Vote Count:
Xinoehp (2): DeTess, Silberfarben
Pyro (1): Kynedath
Sart (5): wilson, Matrim, Experience, Bugsy, Pyro

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4 minutes ago, Sart said:

because of the constables roleblocking me.

Pyro did say it wasn't a constable- and once again, since we're all working together here to find Bleeder- I'm inclined to believe him.

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3 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Pyro did say it wasn't a constable- and once again, since we're all working together here to find Bleeder- I'm inclined to believe him.

That's interesting, and also annoying. If it's a Villager, why? I was going to establish my alibi. Even in the hypothtical scenario where I was Bleeder, it would be suicide to kill or scan that cycle, because of my claim. I suppose I would have had a 1 in 20 shot of getting a lucky Winsting kill, but those are poor odds. I also can't take everything Pyro says at face value. The person roleblocking me could have been an Elim, and Pyro just lied about it. It gives them what amounts to a free lynch on a villager. That doesn't help look for Bleeder, but it's not the worst result for them.

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