Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[DeTess]

11 minutes ago, Experience said:

The thing is, if we can kill Bleeder now, then that is much better then waiting a few more cycles in which bleeder could kill Winsting(Is that how you spell it). I do see what people are saying in their suspicions of you, but I still don't know. I'm feeling like your not bleeder, but not sure if you're elim.

Things is, we've been spending lynches to 'kill bleeder now' for two cycles now. This'd be the the third one. We did get good headstart on the elims early on, but at this rate the village has lost whatever advantage we had from that because we've been failing at finding bleeder. So unless another thing on the level of Elkanah pops up ( someone either scanned as having a suspicious role, or stalked for targeting Bleeder's targets) we really need to get back to trying to find the remaining elims.

[|TJ|]

4 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

This might not work because of how much trust you have to put into a lot of people, many of whom you likely cannot be completely certain of.

True. I'd have to trust Kynedath and a bodyguard. Preferably if Pyro could assure elim Bodyguard would protect him, since Pyro seems too eager to find out Bleeder. 

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Also, this is a bad idea. What if they redirect it to Winsting by accident? This can only work with elim Extortionists assuming Pyro has told them Winsting's identity. Village Extortionists might redirect it to Winsting by accident. 

@TJ Shade, How would that happen? Extortionists don't work that way. (I realize what you are saying, I didn't include an important factor. Extortionists target Sart saying "use Bleeder kill action on yourself"

Example:

Say Extor targets Bleeder saying "use bleeder kill action on yourself". Bleeder then has to attack themselves, to no effect, revealing Bleeder

Say Extor targets NotBleeder saying "use bleeder kill action on yourself". Nothing would happen, as they are not Bleeder.

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Things is, we've been spending lynches to 'kill bleeder now' for two cycles now. This'd be the the third one. We did get good headstart on the elims early on, but at this rate the village has lost whatever advantage we had from that because we've been failing at finding bleeder. So unless another thing on the level of Elkanah pops up ( someone either scanned as having a suspicious role, or stalked for targeting Bleeder's targets) we really need to get back to trying to find the remaining elims.

In the defense of everyone going after Bleeder, Sart was the main idea last cycle to lynch. It somehow turned in the last few hours to HH, who was never the plan to start.

[Kynedath]

16 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

So here's a plan. I'm assuming Kynedath non-Bleeder.

He scans Sart for the second time. For this to happen successfully he shouldn't die, get role-blocked or redirected. 

If we were to trust Kyne's scan, Sart is a Smuggler. Hence, he can't extort or escort Kyne. The only thing he can do is kill Kyne. So we'll give him protection. 

If his Kyne's action gets role-blocked or redirected, Sart couldn't have done that as his secondary action is Smuggling, so it must Bleeder who's trying to frame Sart.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Either I die (In which case you'd all know if I was an elim or not (I'm not by the way)) or I find out whether or not Sart is bleeder. If they are we lynch them next cycle, and if not then we avoid lynching someone who isn't bleeder. And in the meantime we can look at the elim team, or even just Pyro since they are an outed elim and it would benefit the village to lynch them.

10 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

We don't even know is Bleeder can role-block/redirect. if Bleeder is Sart then Bleeder can't roblock or redirect. But Bleeder could be a renowned, a gossip, or anything else that wouldn't cause this. Heck, Bleeder might not even have a secondary role. In the case of this, which is pretty likely, then Kynedath's plan doesn't really work as described.

Actually doesn't that make it work as described even better? I mean if Bleeder can do nothing but try to kill me then if I have protection there is nothing getting in the way of me actually getting the information we want.

7 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

This might not work because of how much trust you have to put into a lot of people, many of whom you likely cannot be completely certain of.

I'm not sure I know what you mean. Yeah, you have to put faith into the fact that I'm not lying, but why would I lie? If I'm a villager then I'd tell the truth because there would be no point in lying. If I'm an elim then I still wouldn't lie because the elims want bleeder dead as much as the village does. And I'm not bleeder because of my scans. Yes, there are other ways of me knowing, but not if I'm bleeder because bleeder has been killing and not scanning most of the game.

You would also need to trust a bodyguard, but that's not something we can really control since the bodyguard basically has to trust me and nobody knows who the bodyguard is.

I feel like the main reason people are seeing me as suspicious is because of my vote on HH last cycle (which was a miscalculation on my part, I misread the vote count) and the way I've been treating the search this cycle. That comes from different priorities I think, I want to catch elims more than Bleeder right now because I feel that bleeder has a very small chance of hitting Winsting, and I'm scared that the eliminators are gaining more and more information and traction without any interference from the village.

For the record though (and to try to lessen the suspicion on me), I don't think that this is the mindset that an eliminator would have. I mean I'm trying to get Pyro lynched, I feel like that isn't something an elim would do.

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Kynedath said:

Actually doesn't that make it work as described even better? I mean if Bleeder can do nothing but try to kill me then if I have protection there is nothing getting in the way of me actually getting the information we want.

Yeah this is completely true. Guess I didn't think that through.

 

[Shard of Reading]

1 minute ago, Kynedath said:

I'm not sure I know what you mean. Yeah, you have to put faith into the fact that I'm not lying, but why would I lie? If I'm a villager then I'd tell the truth because there would be no point in lying. If I'm an elim then I still wouldn't lie because the elims want bleeder dead as much as the village does. And I'm not bleeder because of my scans. Yes, there are other ways of me knowing, but not if I'm bleeder because bleeder has been killing and not scanning most of the game.

You would also need to trust a bodyguard, but that's not something we can really control since the bodyguard basically has to trust me and nobody knows who the bodyguard is.

I feel like the main reason people are seeing me as suspicious is because of my vote on HH last cycle (which was a miscalculation on my part, I misread the vote count) and the way I've been treating the search this cycle. That comes from different priorities I think, I want to catch elims more than Bleeder right now because I feel that bleeder has a very small chance of hitting Winsting, and I'm scared that the eliminators are gaining more and more information and traction without any interference from the village.

For the record though (and to try to lessen the suspicion on me), I don't think that this is the mindset that an eliminator would have. I mean I'm trying to get Pyro lynched, I feel like that isn't something an elim would do.

I don't know. The bodyguard could be an elim that is lying and they then kill you, and also about your point on pyro you could just be an elim trying to distance your self from another outed elim to avoid sus.

[Mat]

Just now, Shard of Reading said:

The bodyguard could be an elim that is lying and they then kill you, and also about your point on pyro you could just be an elim trying to distance your self from another outed elim to avoid sus.

I dunno why I'm defending Kyne when I think they're elim but these statements contradict each other. An elim lying wouldn't kill Kyne if he himself was an elim distancing himself from Pyro.

[|TJ|]

Ahh, I get it now. That's actually smart. 

5 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Say Extor targets Bleeder saying "use bleeder kill action on yourself". Bleeder then has to attack themselves, to no effect, revealing Bleeder

If this is the case, the result would be - "Bleeder got attacked, but survived!"

6 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Say Extor targets NotBleeder saying "use bleeder kill action on yourself". Nothing would happen, as they are not Bleeder

In this case, the extortion would simply fail. 

9 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

In the defense of everyone going after Bleeder, Sart was the main idea last cycle to lynch. It somehow turned in the last few hours to HH, who was never the plan to start

You can blame Pyro and his "plans" for this, btw xD 

[Shard of Reading]

1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I dunno why I'm defending Kyne when I think they're elim but these statements contradict each other. An elim lying wouldn't kill Kyne if he himself was an elim distancing himself from Pyro.

They are 2 different scenarios that could happen. They are not related at all.

[Kynedath]

2 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

I don't know. The bodyguard could be an elim that is lying and they then kill you, and also about your point on pyro you could just be an elim trying to distance your self from another outed elim to avoid sus.

Why would the eliminators kill me if I'm getting information on Bleeder who they are also trying to find and kill? And the bodyguard doesn't even have to say anything to anyone, I just need to survive until next cycle so they would really only need to protect me without saying a single word.

[Bugsy]

My issue is, even if you get the information, it only clears Sart, not you. And if Sart gets killed by Bleeder this cycle (either because you do it or because someone else who’s Bleeder does), that keeps this whole plan from doing anything while also tying up at least one scan and one bodyguard protection.

I think either Sart of Kynedath are Bleeder, or both of them are elims. The second is growingly likely, in my opinion, especially considering how it’d mean all of Kynedath’s ‘scans’ are of suspected elims, roles which he’d already know from the doc.

[|TJ|]

Sart is most definitely not elim, since Pyro had been pushing for Sart lynch since last cycle. 

Also, even if Kynedath is elim,  it means he's not Bleeder, and we can collaborate. 

Besides, if I was a village Renowned, I'd be scanning elim suspects as well, so it's not that much of a stretch. Why would you scan someone you don't suspect to be evil or Bleeder?

I'm all for elim hunt + Kynedath Sart Second Scan.

[Mat]

I think that is a good idea as well, but more as a back-up plan. I still would rather lynch Sart this cycle.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Dear Winsting:

Sart was Roleblocked. Sart.

That was not an elim.

Yes, I have.

That's fine. I would personally extort though.

It doesn't matter, as the alphanumerical thing was scrapped by consensus.

Not sure.

First one. I agree.

An elim.

-Pyro.

In other news, I like how people are assuming there's an elim bodyguard.

As for Kynedath, they're not an elim. We'll scan them.

Also, Devotary is hard-cleared, not just soft-cleared.

[Kynedath]

26 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

My issue is, even if you get the information, it only clears Sart, not you. And if Sart gets killed by Bleeder this cycle (either because you do it or because someone else who’s Bleeder does), that keeps this whole plan from doing anything while also tying up at least one scan and one bodyguard protection.

I think either Sart of Kynedath are Bleeder, or both of them are elims. The second is growingly likely, in my opinion, especially considering how it’d mean all of Kynedath’s ‘scans’ are of suspected elims, roles which he’d already know from the doc.

Bugsy, you have a good point. If I'm bleeder then this is a really bad plan to follow. And I really have no way to prove to you that I'm not Bleeder. The only way to stop this plan is to lynch me. But I guarantee you that I'm not Bleeder, so you'd be wasting a lynch on someone who could get you information that frankly we all want/need. And I still sustain that Bleeder shouldn't even be the focus of this lynch.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Pyro. I haven't really, I'm not sure who has, I just assume there are bodyguards out there.

EDIT 2: @The Young Pyromancer If Sart was roleblocked then why vote for him? doesn't that mean that he is less likely to be Bleeder?

Edited June 2, 2020 by Kynedath

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Sart was Roleblocked.

If you know that Sart was roleblocked, and I don't really know why he would have been, wouldn't that make it less suspicious that there was no soothing? Did you attack Xino or Bugsy? We likely don't have two village Bartenders accounting for the attacks, but how likely is it that Bleeder actually submitted a kill?

Some extortionist decided to redirect my scan to Megasif. I can't see any reason why someone would do this, as Megasif is confirmed to not be Bleeder as Bleeder!Hammond would not have been replaced.

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If you know that Sart was roleblocked, and I don't really know why he would have been, wouldn't that make it less suspicious that there was no soothing? Did you attack Xino or Bugsy? We likely don't have two village Bartenders accounting for the attacks, but how likely is it that Bleeder actually submitted a kill?

If Bleeder!Sart was roleblocked then that would explain the possible lack of a Bleeder kill, making Xino and Bugsy the elim and bartender kills.

[|TJ|]

I did. I assumed they would. I mean, surely they'd have at least one right? Since they didn't protect Karnage in C3 (I assume Striker protected him in C2) maybe it's true. 

There's another thought. What if Striker was the only Bodyguard in the game? That would make the previous cycle's actions bizzare indeed. 

There's a possibility that Bleeder!Bugsy attacked themself if one of the two bartenders were role-blocked. Same could be said for Xino I suppose, but Bugsy is working hard to discredit Kynedath so it's suspicious alright.

@The Young Pyromancer, what was your scan result? 

Was your bartender role-blocked? If not, whom did they attack?

[The Young Pyromancer]

That means there was no Bleeder kill on a cycle he was roleblocked. If I was Bleeder, I would have killed, to try to get people to waste a lynch on Sart.

Please stop escorting/extorting me. You know who you are.

In other news, if Sart ISN'T Bleeder, this means Bleeder has been scanning, trying to find Winsting and then kill them while giving away minimal information. Thus, I would ask @DeTess to stop analyzing who's an elim, as that makes it increasingly easy for Bleeder to guess who Winsting is, as they can eliminate all the elims. This also has the side effect of it being impossible to judge how close Bleeder is to finding Winsting, as they could have just scanned them and be about to win this cycle.

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Some extortionist decided to redirect my scan to Megasif. I can't see any reason why someone would do this, as Megasif is confirmed to not be Bleeder as Bleeder!Hammond would not have been replaced.

Said extortionist has PMed me. Their assumption is forgivable. They wanted to hard-clear you, instead of just soft-clear.

@xinoehp512 @Bugsy Please explain your survival.

@Emi and all other @Stalkers, please either PM someone Bleeder-cleared your results, or post them in thread. If a person targeted Winsting, I will ask Winsting to extort them, as if they're Bleeder, they immediately win, and we can't risk that.

Also my Pinging appears to be broken.

[Bugsy]

For me, I am (or was) a Gambling Tycoon. Not the sort of role that gives me much utility, but I’m guessing now that I’ve said it out loud I’m a sitting duck for a kill tonight. 

[Mat]

After Bugsy's post, here is my 'most likely' option on the kill sequence:

Sart was roleblocked. Thus there is no Bleeder kill.

Bugsy was elim kill, Gambling Tycoon saved him.

Xino was bartender kill, but protected by bodyguard. Either a village bartender and elim bodyguard, or vise versa.

[little wilson]

10 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

 Thus, I would ask @DeTess to stop analyzing who's an elim, as that makes it increasingly easy for Bleeder to guess who Winsting is, as they can eliminate all the elims.

oh-ho. this seems to be tacit, unintentional acknowledgement that said analysisizing is accurate.

[Bugsy]

2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

oh-ho. this seems to be tacit, unintentional acknowledgement that said analysisizing is accurate.

Or a troll post  But I like your option more

[little wilson]

dont read troll to me. pyro generally obvious troll. at least me think me can tell when he trolling and when he not.

[|TJ|]

There's another situation in which Sart claims to have been role-blocked (as an excuse for not Smuggling) but actually scans for Winsting. 

16 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

After Bugsy's post, here is my 'most likely' option on the kill sequence:

Sart was roleblocked. Thus there is no Bleeder kill.

Bugsy was elim kill, Gambling Tycoon saved him.

Xino was bartender kill, but protected by bodyguard. Either a village bartender and elim bodyguard, or vise versa.