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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting


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Again, why? You claim to help us. But when we get the best opportunity to check 2 people for Bleeder, you mess up the votes. You say you won't die and yet it appears you've changed the vote to save your skin. You claim to change the votes to screw up the tie, but what purpose does that serve? (Other than saving you skin, which you claim it doesn't do)

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1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

No, I'll die. I'm just saying that I won't mess up the votes.

By mess up the votes, what do you mean there? What is your desired end state for the votes? And how do you plan on keeping it there?

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So you're saying breaking the tie does not mess up our plans to find Bleeder? Well, I suppose that's true since Sart can prove himself as Smuggler by removing a vote on him nonetheless. If he can't, then he wouldn't be lynched this cycle. 

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4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Besides, Sart being a vote manipulator doesn't mean he can't also be bleeder.

Wait, what does this mean? I thought Bleeder only had the power to role-scan and align-scan, right?

Well, you've put me in a dilemma. If I do retract my vote, you'll change your vote back to Sart?

(I'll probably wait to see if @DeTess or @little wilson will change their votes)

Edited by TJ Shade
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1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

Okay, I scanned Sart last cycle (I'm renowned) and they came back as a smuggler. Sorry this info came this late into the cycle, but I'm inclined to believe that they aren't bleeder. In the interest of tying the vote I'll put my vote onto . . . HH. Pyro, you've helped the village a lot with your info this cycle, so I feel like voting on you would be cruel. And HH has been active enough to contribute and put in actions regularly but laying low enough to generally not arouse suspicion.

No matter what happens this cycle we have to start lynching elims next cycle, otherwise they'll be too powerful to stop eventually. And I don't particularly like the idea of them coordinating an attack on Bleeder and gaining information on the village without the village gaining info on them. I think that Pyro will be my first vote next cycle if they aren't dead, we know they're an elim and they have been working really hard to keep us on the bleeder train, which overall distracts us from focusing on eliminators, and specifcally them. 

Doesn't this prove Sart isn't Bleeder though?

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2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

No it scans a random role.

Quote

Renowned: You can target a player and learn their role. Bleeder will appear as a bartender, Flogs as a bodyguard, Winsting as a Gambling Tycoon.

 

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@A Joe in the Bush, does Bleeder have abilities other than role-scan/align-scan? If so, does she scan as Bartender to a Renowned despite her other abilities i.e. does the following quote hold true no matter what?

Quote

Renowned: You can target a player and learn their role. Bleeder will appear as a bartender, Flogs as a bodyguard, Winsting as a Gambling Tycoon.

Vote Count:

Coda (2) - DeTess, TJ

Pyro (3) - Lord Sil, TGK, Emi

HH(5) - Megasif, Sart, Bugsy, Kynedath, Pyro

Wilson (1) - Wilson

Sart (3) - Matrim, HH, Experience

           
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7 hours ago, Bugsy said:

...so on the night Bleeder didn't do a kill, you used a visible action, but then didn't use it either night Bleeder did use a kill? I'm not sure how that's an alibi :P 

I don't really agree that he's cleared, personally. I've found your analysis to be fairly good this game, though - am I missing something?

 

Basically this:

2 hours ago, Sart said:

Well, this is annoying. I'm not Winsting, so at least my lynch won't end the game. Unfortunately, I'm not Bleeder either, so this is a waste of a lynch. I can literally prove my role after cycle rollover. Do you really think Bleeder will take off a cycle of killing in some attempt to frame me? Not likely, especially since I'm getting lynched anyways. I could move my vote off of Matrim, and onto Pyro, but I can't tie up the vote, because my power doesn't allow that. Plus, our biggest concern is finding Bleeder, and while I can't fully dismiss the conspiracy theory that Bleeder is Pyro, I don't think it's likely. I guess I'll move my vote from Matrim to Hemaluric Headshot. I've already ruled Wilson out. And between him and Coda, I think I suspect Hemalurgic Headshot more.

Sart can prove his claimed role. If he can't we'll lynch him. Even if bleeder doesn't kill coming cycle I'm still fine with letting Sart live as long as he uses his vote manip ability, because even if he is bleeder, he can't really do anything anymore.

I have no reason to suspect HH over anyone else at this point, so I don't see a reason to vote them, so my vote'll remain in place for now. Instead, I'm going to waste some time speculating on the remainder of the elim team based on Pyro's posts:

On 5/31/2020 at 8:32 PM, The Young Pyromancer said:

It was my idea. Mostly Bleeder suspicion and analysis reasons, as well as bodyguard dodging.

Also no one more experienced decided to say anything about the kill, so my idea won by default. Not sure why I've become the elim's 'leader'. Need more activity! :P

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I'm the most active elim. And I have planz. So yes.

So, if we assume Pyro's speaking the truth here* there's a couple of things we can learn about the elim team. First of all, the remaining elims are quiet. Pyro has been extremely active, but I don't think he would be complaining about elim activity if they where merely normally active. Second of all, there are at least two members of the team that Pyro considers more experienced than he is, but not everyone in the elim team falls in that category.

So, let's see what remains of the living player list if we start ruling out people based on this metric. First, on the activity metric we can rule out me, wilson, bugsy, megasif and matrim's dice. We can also rule out HH and Sart, as Pyro wouldn't be pushing their lynches of he knew they weren't bleeder, and rule out devotary because of hsi role in getting Fura killed.

Then, splitting up the list by people who pyro would likely consider more experience than himself, and people he'd likely consider less so (this is not meant as a value judgement on any of these people, btw. We where all new and inexperienced once):

Quote

More experienced:

Lord Reginald ( Kynedath )

TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )
 

Quote

less experienced

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )
Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )
Shard ( Experience )
Qwerty Meep ( Shard of Reading )
Coda ( Coda )
Lady Zephyr ( Zillah )
Archivald ( The_Archivist )
Lady Lumen ( Mist )
Emi ( Emi )
Lord Malikihal ( The_God_King )
Julius ( Dot )

So, based on the assumptions we made before, this'd mean that both Kynedath and BR have to be evil to fill the 'experienced player' quota. Then there would be 2-4 more from the less experienced list. Of these, I'd say Xinoehhp is likely, as are Coda and the the archivist. TJ is a possibility because pyro was willing to give up a team-mate for some reason, and that only makes sense if it was someone completely inactive, but TJ himself looks fairly village.

So yeah, based on this I'd say the remaining elims beyond pyro are Kynedath, BR, Xinoehp, coda and the archivist. If at least half of these are true, I suggest the elims use their kill to deal with a leak :P 

 

*note: pyro could be trolling. Assuming he's speaking the truth is dangerous. Nevertheless, it's an interesting thought-exercise that might reveal some interesting insights.

 

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54 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@A Joe in the Bush, does Bleeder have abilities other than role-scan/align-scan? If so, does she scan as Bartender to a Renowned despite her other abilities i.e. does the following quote hold true no matter what?

           

Bleeder can have two roles, just like Flogs, Doswer, and fifth can. Not saying she does. But hypothetically, let's say that Bleeder is a Bleeder Gossip. If a renowned scans her, I choose randomly which result to tell the Renowned, Gossip or Bartender.

1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

@The Young Pyromancer Could you pretty please green out your old votes?

You don't have to. Green votes mean nothing to me. I just use the most recent red vote from each player.

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