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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting


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4 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

This is suspicious to me, especially given the fact that there's nothing the elims can really do to Bleeder if they find her. Is there a reason no one is saying Megasif is a potential Bleeder suspect?

Yes. Megasif replaced Hammond C3 after Hammond has been inactive the entire game, after there had been a Bleeder kill. So Bleeder can't be Megasif.

4 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

...so on the night Bleeder didn't do a kill, you used a visible action, but then didn't use it either night Bleeder did use a kill? I'm not sure how that's an alibi :P

Yes! Exactly!

 

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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Stalkers, in case I die, post your results in-thread tomorrow, for reasons.

As for targets, Winsting, we've talked.

Village bartender, target someone who hasn't really been helping the thread, like HH.

Extortionist(s), Extort onto a different suspect from the list, naming Bleeder's kill.

And I'm a stalker, as well as basically confirmed, so PLEASE DON'T screw with my action. We can't afford that at this point in the game.

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25 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Stalkers, in case I die, post your results in-thread tomorrow, for reasons.

As for targets, Winsting, we've talked.

Village bartender, target someone who hasn't really been helping the thread, like HH.

Extortionist(s), Extort onto a different suspect from the list, naming Bleeder's kill.

And I'm a stalker, as well as basically confirmed, so PLEASE DON'T screw with my action. We can't afford that at this point in the game.

Excuse me, I've been trying to be helpful, but I don't find it helpful to simply rehash what's already been thoroughly discussed. That simply clogs up the thread in an already very active game. I've been checking in on voting discussion, I've been trying to do analysis.

I wouldn't take offense if you simply didn't think I was helpful, you can think what you like, but I don't like being called out for a kill.

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16 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I wouldn't take offense if you simply didn't think I was helpful, you can think what you like, but I don't like being called out for a kill

I'm suspicious of you for other reasons too that I can't share with the thread without permission from a certain person.

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guys this whole thread is a bit crazy. The village cannot work with the elims. If we work with them they will pick off villagers (because they know that bleeder isn't an elim). This means that more and more villagers will be picked off instead of elims. By the time we kill bleeder the elims will be powerful enough to just vote to disperse or kill off everyone. I will vote for Pyro because he is a known elim

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17 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

guys this whole thread is a bit crazy. The village cannot work with the elims. If we work with them they will pick off villagers (because they know that bleeder isn't an elim). This means that more and more villagers will be picked off instead of elims. By the time we kill bleeder the elims will be powerful enough to just vote to disperse or kill off everyone. I will vote for Pyro because he is a known elim

Unless we pick off Bleeder this cycle. Sart is a good bet, as analyzed by me and Bugsy. Let's go with that, @The_God_King. Pyro will 

A. Be picked off by a bartender this cycle

B. Be lynched next cycle when

  1.  Sart is Bleeder- therefore making this a more-or-less regular game. 
  2.  Sart isn't Bleeder- therefore casting massive suspicion on him as one of the originators for the Sart idea.

Either way he is lynched. So today, when we have a chance, let's at least try to get rid of Bleeder. You say the village cannot work with the elims? I say it is our best and possibly only chance.

@DeTess, @Lord_Silberfarben, @little wilson, any of you mind changing your vote to make this happen? (or anyone else)

 

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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6 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Unless we pick off Bleeder this cycle. Sart is a good bet, as analyzed by me and Bugsy. Let's go with that, @The_God_King. Pyro will 

A. Be picked off by a bartender this cycle

B. Be lynched next cycle when

  1.  Sart is Bleeder- therefore making this a more-or-less regular game. 
  2.  Sart isn't Bleeder- therefore casting massive suspicion on him as one of the originators for the Sart idea.

Either way he is lynched. So today, when we have a chance, let's at least try to get rid of Bleeder. You say the village cannot work with the elims? I say it is our best and possibly only chance.

@DeTess, @Lord_Silberfarben, @little wilson, any of you mind changing your vote to make this happen? (or anyone else)

 

problem is that this is all based on trusting the elims, which is never a good idea. It leaves the village vulnerable and reveals the roles we need to defeat them in the end. Long term this plan (if Bleeder doesn't die tonight) ends with either bleeder getting lucky or the elims knowing enough about us to kill us. We've been saying we'll kill pyro one cycle from now for the last 3 cycles. I'm thinking it's time

Also note to pyro. You're a confirmed elim and something inside my head is telling me not to trust a confirmed elim. Nothing personal

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11 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

Long term this plan (if Bleeder doesn't die tonight)

But what I'm saying is this plan ends tonight either way, either with Sart being Bleeder and it ending or with Sart not and us lynching Pyro anyway. I would rather have a chance to lynch Bleeder then no chance, and Pyro's seemed pretty helpful so far.

11 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

It leaves the village vulnerable and reveals the roles we need to defeat them in the end.

What roles? (Don't tell me actually) So far not very many people have claimed. The main one I can think of is Sart, and he's the Bleeder suspect...

I don't trust any elims. I only think we should truce with them until the common threat, Bleeder, is eliminated, which will hopefully be tonight. After that then whatever happens, happens and the roles claimed have already occurred. 

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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Also, you're learning info from me as well, as Detess has said. It's a give-and-take relationship.

Besides, we're losing BAD right now. And re:sart, I actually WASN'T one of the originators of the sart idea, and I've actually advised caution in dealing with him, as while there's a decent chance he's Bleeder, there's also a good chance he isn't like Elkanah last cycle.

Wilson still owes me those leatherbounds BTW.

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Well, I thought that the turn ended tomorrow, so that's when i'll post my analysis. I'm going to place a vote on Sart. I think that yes we need to really find bleeder, but only for so long. Either next turn or the turn after that we really need to start lynching for elims or else they will be too close to majority. I'm really hoping sart is bleeder, because then we can go straight to going after elims. 

Also, 

1 hour ago, The_God_King said:

guys this whole thread is a bit crazy. The village cannot work with the elims. If we work with them they will pick off villagers (because they know that bleeder isn't an elim). This means that more and more villagers will be picked off instead of elims. By the time we kill bleeder the elims will be powerful enough to just vote to disperse or kill off everyone. I will vote for Pyro because he is a known elim

Ya, I get it if you want to get rid of elims now. I feel like it might be better to lynch someone else(other than pyro) whom you are suspicious of and will actually give us information on their death. Just a thought though.^_^

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Alright, I've been away most of this cycle unfortunately (sorry about that) but I'm going through it and should be able to post with thoughts soon enough.

EDIT: Hello new player @TJ Shade! I'm sure I'll have context for your arrival soon enough. Your icon looks great!

Edited by Kynedath
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BrightnessRadiant suggested that there would be one more elim than expected. Votes Straw, said last cycle would like to go after Pyro. Orlok thought she could be evil. She defended Pyro for saying he would be less active the first few cycles. Others gave warning and did not receive suspicion. She tried to avoid a tie C1 lynch because the elims could tilt it in their favor. Appears to be having trouble keeping up with high volume of posts. Slightly suspicious. 

Bugsy made some comments on the rules. He says that with role madness, Joe might not make a larger elim team. Poke vote meta is that they go on the same person--good to know, I did not know this. Wasn't sure about Rae C2. Elims likely have at least 1 gossip. It might be hard to kill Pyro C4. He said the elims do kind of need to know Winsting, because if he's NKed, it's over. Elims can't do anything about Bleeder. Seems village. Slight trust.

I can and should do analysis/reads on at least two people a cycle. Feel free to hold me to that.

I am concerned about Pyro. I assume he is serving the elims' interest more than the village's, despite the temporary shared interest. 

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Vote Tally:
Coda (1): DeTess
Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King
HH (1): Megasif
Wilson (1): Wilson
Sart (5): Bugsy, Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience
Matrim (1): Sart

Well, this is annoying. I'm not Winsting, so at least my lynch won't end the game. Unfortunately, I'm not Bleeder either, so this is a waste of a lynch. I can literally prove my role after cycle rollover. Do you really think Bleeder will take off a cycle of killing in some attempt to frame me? Not likely, especially since I'm getting lynched anyways. I could move my vote off of Matrim, and onto Pyro, but I can't tie up the vote, because my power doesn't allow that. Plus, our biggest concern is finding Bleeder, and while I can't fully dismiss the conspiracy theory that Bleeder is Pyro, I don't think it's likely. I guess I'll move my vote from Matrim to Hemaluric Headshot. I've already ruled Wilson out. And between him and Coda, I think I suspect Hemalurgic Headshot more.

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3 minutes ago, Sart said:

Vote Tally:
Coda (1): DeTess
Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King
HH (1): Megasif
Wilson (1): Wilson
Sart (5): Bugsy, Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience
Matrim (1): Sart

Well, this is annoying. I'm not Winsting, so at least my lynch won't end the game. Unfortunately, I'm not Bleeder either, so this is a waste of a lynch. I can literally prove my role after cycle rollover. Do you really think Bleeder will take off a cycle of killing in some attempt to frame me? Not likely, especially since I'm getting lynched anyways. I could move my vote off of Matrim, and onto Pyro, but I can't tie up the vote, because my power doesn't allow that. Plus, our biggest concern is finding Bleeder, and while I can't fully dismiss the conspiracy theory that Bleeder is Pyro, I don't think it's likely. I guess I'll move my vote from Matrim to Hemaluric Headshot. I've already ruled Wilson out. And between him and Coda, I think I suspect Hemalurgic Headshot more.

Sart is still my biggest suspicion, but he raises a good point here. If Bleeder kills tonight and Sart takes a vote off himself, he's cleared. Plus, best case scenario for the village right now is a tied lynch that takes out multiple suspects, and that's more likely if I vote HH.

Updated votecount:

Coda (1): DeTess
Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King
HH (3): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy
Wilson (1): Wilson
Sart (4): Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience
Matrim (1): Sart

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Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

So now all we need is someone to vote HH.

No, because Sart will presumably take a vote off of himself. He can't cause global ties, but he can cause ties. At least, unless I'm misunderstanding something

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Okay, I scanned Sart last cycle (I'm renowned) and they came back as a smuggler. Sorry this info came this late into the cycle, but I'm inclined to believe that they aren't bleeder. In the interest of tying the vote I'll put my vote onto . . . HH. Pyro, you've helped the village a lot with your info this cycle, so I feel like voting on you would be cruel. And HH has been active enough to contribute and put in actions regularly but laying low enough to generally not arouse suspicion.

No matter what happens this cycle we have to start lynching elims next cycle, otherwise they'll be too powerful to stop eventually. And I don't particularly like the idea of them coordinating an attack on Bleeder and gaining information on the village without the village gaining info on them. I think that Pyro will be my first vote next cycle if they aren't dead, we know they're an elim and they have been working really hard to keep us on the bleeder train, which overall distracts us from focusing on eliminators, and specifcally them. 

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I think this is a good situation to be in.

Coda (1): DeTess
Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King
HH (4): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy, Kynedath 
Wilson (1): Wilson
Sart (4): Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience
 

If Sart moves someones vote on him, he'll be confirmed as a Smuggler and save himself, so we don't lose a villager. We also lynch HH, who might be Bleeder. If he doesn't move the vote off him, he'll be lynched, and is most definitely Bleeder. Now if someone just votes for Pyro, we could achieve a triple lynch and take care of an elim also.

All this assuming no one manipulates votes of course. They don't have any reason to. If anyone manipulates votes from this situation it's pretty suspicious.

Edited by TJ Shade
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That's not quite being a team-player Pyro. I'm sure your elims will be fine without you, but are you willing to mess with our chance of confirming/lynching Sart as Bleeder just because you'll die?

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Just now, TJ Shade said:

That's not quite being a team-player Pyro. I'm sure your elims will be fine without you, but are you willing to mess with our chance of confirming/lynching Sart as Bleeder just because you'll die?

I'm the most active elim. And I have planz. So yes.

Sides, I won't. Trust me.

Sart HH

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