A Joe in the Bush

Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

1,451 posts in this topic

1 minute ago, Megasif said:

Fair enough. Let's lynch us a bleeder. Just saying if we make bleeder the sole focus, then elims have an easy time blending in.

So, for Bleeder suspects, who'd you think? Currently it's Sart as top suspect, though Bugsy and actually myself have been mentioned...by Sart.

And the elims are blending in right now pretty easily anyway. The only one we know is Pyro, and he outed himself. Otherwise it's just speculation, and while this is my first game I'll  say that seems normal.

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Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

Now I'm sad because I really liked it. :(

Fine, be that way, and have a bunch of redundant scans. See if I care. <_<

:wub:

 

Also detess eloquently giving words to my thoughts.

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15 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Bleeder is more dangerous aorn but I'd rather elims deal with them :ph34r:

tbf they cant. bleeder can only be killed by lynching.

edit: wow look at all these posts that appeared when me submitted. me shouldve refreshed page. woops.

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1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

So, for Bleeder suspects, who'd you think? Currently it's Sart as top suspect, though Bugsy and actually myself have been mentioned...by Sart.

As much as I'm suspicious of them, I don't think Sart's bleeder, as they did have a claim for an alibi that rules that out.

1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

And the elims are blending in right now pretty easily anyway. The only one we know is Pyro, and he outed himself. Otherwise it's just speculation, and while this is my first game I'll  say that seems normal.

Yeah, the main problem with spending too much thread-time hunting bleeder is that we're not learning anything new regarding the elims. The moment we return to elim-hunting mode we can learn more about who they could be based on who protects who and the like.

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Still don't think you should completely disregard a good plan just because of its source.

@little wilson someone's pointed that out already.

I'll check to see how many people we have left to work through for bleeder in the elim doc. I think someone made an alignment table C1.

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Posted (edited)

3 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Still don't think you should completely disregard a good plan just because of its source.

It's a plan based on assuming everyone acts purely logically. As we're all humans here, that makes it flawed. For example, based purely on logic, everyone with scans or action claims that'd rule them or other people out from being bleeder should have contacted me or Wilson by now. I don't know about Wilson, but I've yet to receive any PM's.

Anyway, please don't take this the wrong way. Your plan makes sense from a logical standpoint, it's just highly unlikely to work out in practice in a game like this.

Edited by DeTess
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4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Still don't think you should completely disregard a good plan just because of its source.

@little wilson someone's pointed that out already.

I'll check to see how many people we have left to work through for bleeder in the elim doc. I think someone made an alignment table C1.

Hmm. Feels like this could help. Until you lay all your cards out on table regarding bleeder, in thread, not in PM, we have no reason to attempt to work together. I may or may not have something spicy to share myself from my role last cycle.

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Just now, DeTess said:

For example, based purely on logic, everyone with scans or action claims that'd rule them or other people out from being bleeder should have contacted me or Wilson by now. I don't know about Wilson, but I've yet to receive any PM's.

A lot of that is because logically, if they're the only person to do that, it essentially wastes there PM for that turn. And people are skitish about me because I'm an elim. If more experienced players approved of it, we could probably catch bleeder this cycle.

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2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Still don't think you should completely disregard a good plan just because of its source.

@little wilson someone's pointed that out already.

I'll check to see how many people we have left to work through for bleeder in the elim doc. I think someone made an alignment table C1.

me aware. me forgot to refresh page. me made an edit acknowledging the redundancy of me post.

also me dont think your plan is being rejected cuz of source. me personally reject plan because mayor plans are no fun. tess seems to have rejected partly for same reason. me dont want you to do it both because you evil and me dont like mayors.

me not quite as certain as tess that it wouldnt work - me actually think it would in part were everyone on board. however everyone not on board hence it dont work. too many people dont like mayors so too many people wont agree to mayor plans.

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6 minutes ago, DeTess said:

As much as I'm suspicious of them, I don't think Sart's bleeder, as they did have a claim for an alibi that rules that out.

I asked Joe after Sart said that, Bleeder can have multiple roles. So it still isn't completely ruled out.

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Posted (edited)

2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

me not quite as certain as tess that it wouldnt work - me actually think it would in part were everyone on board. however everyone not on board hence it dont work. too many people dont like mayors so too many people wont agree to mayor plans.

Yeah. I get it. I'm just kinda sad because it's my first real SE plan that doesn't totally suck, and I think I did a pretty good job.

EDIT: Flame On!

Edited by The Young Pyromancer
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Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

I asked Joe after Sart said that, Bleeder can have multiple roles. So it still isn't completely ruled out.

Not 100%, but bleeder only gets one action. Since Sart claimed he'd continue using that visible ability, it should be easy to determine whether they're bleeder or not. If their vote manip stops and bleeder killing starts, we know that they need to be lynched.

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1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Yeah. I get it. I'm just kinda sad because it's my first real SE plan that doesn't totally suck, and I think I did a pretty good job.

EDIT: Flame On!

it not a bad plan. it strategic and me think it would work. if the games here had different meta me think more people would be on board (tho me also think if games had necessary meta for this plan to be accepted, you would not be alive right now). but the meta here is what it is and most players dont like mayors. sorry.

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8 minutes ago, Megasif said:

I may or may not have something spicy to share myself from my role last cycle.

¿Picante? You can't tease us like that.

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So @Megasif, I can't lay all my cards on the table as that would guarantee an elim loss. A good 50% of the people we've cleared is because they're elims, so we can't do anything much right now. I can't even suggest a lynch target. If it looks like someone's going to be lynched who's clear/semi-clear though, I'll speak up.

Thanks Wilson! That means a lot, coming from you.

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4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

So @Megasif, I can't lay all my cards on the table as that would guarantee an elim loss. A good 50% of the people we've cleared is because they're elims, so we can't do anything much right now. I can't even suggest a lynch target. If it looks like someone's going to be lynched who's clear/semi-clear though, I'll speak up.

Thanks Wilson! That means a lot, coming from you.

Which is where my hesitancy comes from.

But Ok, I can accept the second part. What are your requirement of someone being clear/semi-clear btw, apart from them being an elim of course.

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14 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Not 100%, but bleeder only gets one action. Since Sart claimed he'd continue using that visible ability, it should be easy to determine whether they're bleeder or not. If their vote manip stops and bleeder killing starts, we know that they need to be lynched.

This I agree with. Though, I don't think there was a Bleeder kill C1. The only way there could have been was if Bleeder targeted Araris for some reason, which doesn't seem likely. This explains how Sart's alibi can technically be true: He is a Smuggler, and he did move Arraenae's vote C1, maybe even as a set-up for an alibi he might need to make later. Then, he Bleeder-killed on C2 and C3 and used the bandwagon votes as an excuse for why he didn't move a vote.

If Sart is Bleeder- which I think he is- he probably will use that visible ability this turn. Maybe he doesn't know who Winsting is and needs more time. Maybe he just wants us to trust him to give him more time. Either way I think lynching him as our top Bleeder suspect is a smart idea. Thoughts?

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2 minutes ago, Megasif said:

What are your requirement of someone being clear/semi-clear btw, apart from them being an elim of course.

Blocked a cycle bleeder killed, tracked going nowhere when bleeder killed, extorted with bleeder's kill and their target wasn't attacked, person proves they have two roles, neither of which are bleeder, person's scanned twice and bartender hasn't shown up, person's dead and their alignment isn't 'BLEEDER', person proves themselves as winsting, or person was inactive a cycle bleeder killed. Now obviously, some of these are harder clears than others, as it could be that C2 in fact DIDN'T have a bleeder kill and we just have a ton of bartenders, but it's a reasonable assumption.

 

Now where this gets trickier is when bleeder starts trying to fool us...

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1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Now where this gets trickier is when bleeder starts trying to fool us...

I think they already have tried. Sart's first post on page 3 of the thread I swear gave me chills reading it again (when you know you're too into this game). Now that my post gives an idea of how Sart could be telling the truth about his alibi and still be Bleeder, it is clear to me that Sart's 4 'scenarios' are exactly this.

None of the scenarios he gave imply Bleeder having another role. I present option 5 to explain the lack of the Day 1 Bleeder kill:

4 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

This I agree with. Though, I don't think there was a Bleeder kill C1. The only way there could have been was if Bleeder targeted Araris for some reason, which doesn't seem likely. This explains how Sart's alibi can technically be true: He is a Smuggler, and he did move Arraenae's vote C1, maybe even as a set-up for an alibi he might need to make later. Then, he Bleeder-killed on C2 and C3 and used the bandwagon votes as an excuse for why he didn't move a vote.

If Sart is Bleeder- which I think he is- he probably will use that visible ability this turn. Maybe he doesn't know who Winsting is and needs more time. Maybe he just wants us to trust him to give him more time. Either way I think lynching him as our top Bleeder suspect is a smart idea. Thoughts?

 

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Sart's a good option here, but so was Elk. I'm just saying we shouldn't be sure.

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Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

Sart's a good option here, but so was Elk. I'm just saying we shouldn't be sure.

Fair enough

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@xinoehp512, you're viewing the thread! People have been suspicious of you.

Who do YOU think is Bleeder?

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Well, I'm here. I had something come up IRL not letting me be on the shard at all. I just finished reading everything I missed, and I'll try to get an analysis post out before the turn ends. 

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Hi Straw! Hope we're doing you proud!

Though TBH if you were alive you'd probably not like what I'm doing at all, as it's a very different playstyle then what you and most other players in SE trend towards.

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20 hours ago, Sart said:

Well, I have something of an alibi. I'm a Smuggler, and I removed Rae's vote cycle one. In retrospect, I should have removed other votes on Cycles 2 & 3, but I didn't due to the whole bandwagon situation. It's not a perfect alibi, but taking a page from Elkanah's book, do you really think Bleeder would use vote manipulation rather than a kill or scan. Admittedly, I was in some hot water, so vote manipulation wouldn't have been the worst idea, but I had already voted in self-preservation. I'll be removing a vote this cycle as well to prove my claim. Bleeder obviously isn't going to take time off from killing, since they are so close to winning.

...so on the night Bleeder didn't do a kill, you used a visible action, but then didn't use it either night Bleeder did use a kill? I'm not sure how that's an alibi :P 

15 hours ago, DeTess said:

I don't have any solid suspicions for Bleeder now that Sart has an ellibi.

I don't really agree that he's cleared, personally. I've found your analysis to be fairly good this game, though - am I missing something?

8 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

I do feel wary of working with the elims in any regards. They know more than the village simply by nature, which means that they could easily backstab/trick us.

It's a bit of a necessity right now, unfortunately. If the elims NK Winsting, we're all screwed. 

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

(1) Even if you aren't Bleeder, the identity shouldn't be revealed to the elims because I'd rather the elims be careful in their kills. If we give them Winsting, they'll kill the rest of without any need for caution. So Winsting, please do not reveal yourself.

...

(2) EDIT: Went through Sart's posts and found an interesting one during C2.

Seems genuine to me. People who have been playing with Sart for a while - what do you think?

(1) I disagree. The elims won't be careful in their kills. They'll just take potshots and hope they don't hit Winsting, or hope that if they do, he protects himself with his bodyguard power. The elims are still a big threat, and we should still be trying to find them, but they are all cleared not to be Bleeder, and that's what it looks like most people here are prioritizing right now

(2) I would call that post mostly NAI. Elim!Sart would benefit from stifling discussion and having the village follow up on failed elim kills. Bleeder!Sart would benefit from the same, because every bodyguard protectee or gambling tycoon that's lynched is one less cycle he has to worry about it happening to him. Village!Sart would post it for the reasons he expressed in the post. His actual proposal there isn't something that exclusively benefits any one group, and it could be construed in favor of any read on him. 

3 hours ago, Megasif said:

We always let elims find the bleeder. They also never win with bleeder alive. And letting elims live is getting us further away from our wincon. And we play right into elims' hands. 

(To expand: We don't know each other's alignments. Elims already have a distinction between village and elims. That's the biggest advantage already. Then they can pool their resources (roles) without being worried if they're getting tricked by the people they're working with. After getting bleeder, we still need to figure out elims. Right now, with a bleeder on the loose, elims can also feign solving to look villagery, making it even more difficult.

This is suspicious to me, especially given the fact that there's nothing the elims can really do to Bleeder if they find her. Is there a reason no one is saying Megasif is a potential Bleeder suspect?

2 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Yeah. I get it. I'm just kinda sad because it's my first real SE plan that doesn't totally suck, and I think I did a pretty good job.

EDIT: Flame On!

It really doesn't suck at all, and it's the exact sort of thing I'd have tried in my first game or two. It ultimately detracts from a lot of the fun, though, because it removes the granularity and feels a lot more algorithmic. So it has nothing to do with you not doing a good job, it's just not an idea people here would tend to go for.

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