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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting


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Also, if anyone wants to send me messages they want me, as the most active elim in the doc (though not most skilled lol), to answer, I will. I won't reveal who sent them, and I give you about 75% odds on the response being the truth. I will accept any questions from Bleeder too, for lols.

EDIT: @StrikerEZ hi! We totally didn't kill you. It was the bartender, I swear.

Edited by The Young Pyromancer
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Ok, so I'm voting for Pyro. He actually said that he is an elim. In addition he wanted to lynch Karnage, not Straw and if my memory isn't bad he almoust always was voting for everybody, except Straw and Elkanah. I'm not sure if this makes sense, I'm not good at explaining things, but I tried.

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5 hours ago, The_God_King said:

I'm a bit unsure why we're letting pyro live. I understand he's not very dangerous if we know who he is. The problem is that this game is role madness. He could have a vote manipulation or other action that could be actively helping the elims. I know Elkanah may be Bleeder but the chances are slim (he's the most likely but for me it's only a bit more than other players). For now I'm throwing my vote on the sure bet pyro 

The problem though, is that finding bleeder is crucial, doubly so in a game where she either knows who Flogs is, or is pretending to be Flogs. The reasons we have for suspecting Elkanah are substantial enough that we should lynch him. Yes, Pyro is dangerous and can't be trusted, but as an individual, he poses less of a threat than Bleeder, so I'd much rather let him survive another cycle than a potential Bleeder.

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I'm sorry guys. No activity for me really until probably Monday. I haven't caught up but skimmed some of this last page. I'm guessing the reason everyone is voting on Elkanah is to get bleeder out of the game which has become an instant priority since karnage is probably almost dead. Can't a bartender just kill pyro? 

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10 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I personally doubt Elk's Dowser claim, as the 5th Octant Constable would basically have a free win if the claim was true. I don't really think Dowser would do that.

Actually, the 5th octant doesn't need to personally kill Dowser, so the lynch would have the same effect. I could totally see dowser!elkanah making that claim, knowing that he'd die, but at least he'd die to an elim attack, freeing up a lynch.

9 hours ago, The_Archivist said:

DeTess: She was responsible for a lot of the information that led to people suspecting Fura, and what I think was a Bartender kill on him. I would like to know what's the main thing about me you're suspicious about, care to share?    Read: Pretty strong Village.

My main suspicion comes from your post at the start of C2, where you where calling for protection for karnage. I think its less likely fora villager to jump to that conclusion than an elim. For a villager there was no reason to assume that karnage was good despite their survival. An elim would know karnage wasn't an elim though, so the 'oh no, he might be Flogs' conclusion would come more naturally.

In addition:

Quote

Elkanah: If Devotary is to be trusted, he had an interaction with Araris, who died, and Karnage, who Bleeder almost certainly tried to kill. If Elkanah is revealed to be Village, a lot of suspicion will fall on Devotary, so I tend to trust him on this. Once confronted, Elkanah started making excuses that are both illogical and contradict the rules.    Read: Most likely Bleeder so far. Elkanah

Elkanah flipping village in no way throws suspicion on Devotary. Elkanah has admitted to the actions scanned by Devotary, so even if it was all a mega!chaos!play by village!Elkanah it still doesn't indicate foul play on the part of devotary. Your maneuvering to throw shade on devotary for a bad outcome also reads a bit suspect to me. It'd give elim!you a win either way. Either bleeder is lynched, or you're set for a mislynch on Devotary.

7 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, if Elk isn't Bleeder, who is?

Asking for a friend.

The best fit outside of Elkanah I can think of is Sart. I don't think they're an elim given their vote on Straw, but their self-preservation play doesn't sit well with me. Them being bleeder actually fits the facts better than them being an elim or a villager imho.

Edited by DeTess
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Alright, I was honestly getting a little bit of a bad gut read at first from DeTess, but their consistent high quality analysis has made them one of my strongest village reads in the game at this point. 

22 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Your maneuvering to throw shade on devotary for a bad outcome also reads a bit suspect to me. It'd give elim!you a win either way. Either bleeder is lynched, or you're set for a mislynch on Devotary.

I completely missed this, but it's a really compelling point. Seems like it'd be good cover for a vote on Devotary later, without being committal enough to demand any action. Definite elim lean on on Archivist now.

22 minutes ago, DeTess said:

The best fit outside of Elkanah I can think of is Sart. I don't think they're an elim given their vote on Straw, but their self-preservation play doesn't sit well with me. Them being bleeder actually fits the facts better than them being an elim or a villager imho.

This fits rather well with what @Arraenae was saying earlier, IIRC. I don't think it's likely to be the case, because I'm pretty convinced Elk is Bleeder. If it turns out Pyro isn't trolling and actually knows something we don't, though, it could be plausible. Depending on how Elk flips, I might do a deep dive on Sart's posts and see if anything jumps out at me.

Edited by Bugsy
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Alright, Ive got time for a couple more ISO reads.

Lord silberfarben

His posts have been pretty much entirely one-liners or RP, making him next to impossible to read. @Lord_Silberfarben, I realize it might be difficult to catch up at this point, but could you make the attempt anyway? I would really like to see some reads from you so that I can start getting a better read on you. And if you can't find the time for a full read through, maybe you could focus on 2 to 3 people that stood out to you? that might take less time and woulds till give us some content to look through.

coda

Coda is a member of the 'defended straw C1 club'. That's fairly NAI though. What I think is more noteworthy is their post C2 where they vote on straw. The way they highlight how they had been fooled by Straw feels a bit over-acted, like an elim trying to compensate for an earlier defense. I also find it noteworthy that they seemed to beleive Karnage's claim of being flogs independently of their claim on Straw's alignment. Those seemed pretty linked to me. The way that was phrased makes it seem to me that Coda knew karnage wasn't an elim to begin with.

At the moment I'm fairly suspicious of Coda.

Kynedath

Kynedath also joins the 'defended straw C1 club', though they were less overt about it than some others (actually not really. their first defense was less overt, but he wrote a pretty good thesis against infolynching. That was pretty NAI though), merely mentioning being against lynching the super-actives C1, and mentioning Straw as being part of that group.

Also of note is Kynedath mentioning suspicion of Pyro C1. That looks fairly village, I think, as there wasn't too much reason to go for a distancing play there.

For the rest, Kynedath seems to be playing the game pretty much as usual, with a decent amount of analysis. The only thing that I disliked about that was the speed with which he backed off from his suspicion of me once I challenged it. If my defense was really so logically sound I feel like I wouldn't have had to make it? Unfortunately, Furami pointed out this exact thing, which really muddies the water. At that point Furami might have been distancing, or he might not have been, or he might have decided to do something that looks like distancing if he died, but would allow for a reasonable vote if he didn't.

Overall, I'm leaning mildly village on Kynedath. Their overall gameplan is informative and helpful, and their villagery actions outweigh the things I find suspicious.

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33 minutes ago, DeTess said:

My main suspicion comes from your post at the start of C2, where you where calling for protection for karnage. I think its less likely fora villager to jump to that conclusion than an elim. For a villager there was no reason to assume that karnage was good despite their survival. An elim would know karnage wasn't an elim though, so the 'oh no, he might be Flogs' conclusion would come more naturally.

In addition:

Elkanah flipping village in no way throws suspicion on Devotary. Elkanah has admitted to the actions scanned by Devotary, so even if it was all a mega!chaos!play by village!Elkanah it still doesn't indicate foul play on the part of devotary. Your maneuvering to throw shade on devotary for a bad outcome also reads a bit suspect to me. It'd give elim!you a win either way. Either bleeder is lynched, or you're set for a mislynch on Devotary.

Well, I can't remember exactly what went through my brain at the time, but I probably didn't consider bussing at the time, and without that an elim!Karnage would get lynched only one cycle afterwards. On top of that I was all around panicking, since I was worried about Bleeder from pretty much the first second.

They admitted? Ohhhhhh... they did. I have nothing to say for myself, that was just plain stupidity on my part. To be clear, this is not a claim, I'm just saying I somehow didn't realise that.

I should probably do some RP.

___________________

Archivald pushed his way through the throng of people, cracking the skull of an occasional threat with his dueling cane. How did this happen? Four people were killed, and it turns into a free for all.

His bodyguards were killed at some point during the chaos, or possibly they ran away before that idiot thug of Winsting's locked them in. In fact, everyone was acting like an idiot, they had no reason to fear the constables, if they couldn't make the charges stick until now, there was no reason why they would now.

He quickly made his way to an overturned table next to a wall. He should be safe there, at least for a little while.

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Four AM

Hopefully this writeup will be added in within 24 hours of now.

 

Welcome to the 4th Hour! Lord Winsting has joined the party!
So, Karnage bet me his Yellow Lightsaber that he would die during Two AM, and he lost. Elkanah had smuggled him, so I made a joke about him soothing Karnange and making it harder for Karnage to fight back when he was attacked. Elky asked me if he managed to steal anything from him, so I decided to give him the Yellow Lightsaber, which is now in the possession of the 5th Octant Constable.

 

Arraenae was killed! They were a Criminal Gossip!

Karnage was killed! They were Flogs, a Criminal Gambling Tycoon!

Elkanah was lynched! They were Dowser, a Criminal Smuggler!

 

Awake players: 18

Votes required to Disperse the Party: 11

Vote Count:
Pyro (5): Elkanah, Arraenae, TGK, Coda, Emi
Elkanah (13): wilson, Matrim, Kynedath, HH, Karnage, Devotary, Pyro, Sart, Xino, DeTess, Bugsy, Archivist, Mist, Brightness
Dispersal Votes (0/13): 

Player List:


ThatTinyStrawMan ( Straw ) Renowned Constable
Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )
Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )
To Be Determined ( Elkanah ) Dowser, a Criminal Smuggler!
Shard ( Experience )
Qwerty Meep ( Shard of Reading )
Coda ( Coda )
Lord Reginald ( Kynedath )
Matrim ( Matrim's_Dice )
Lady Zephyr ( Zillah )
Archivald ( The_Archivist )
Lord Karn ( Karnage ) Flogs, a Criminal Gambling Tycoon!
Variel ( StrikerEZ ) Bartender/Bodyguard Criminal
Lady Lumen ( Mist )
Emi ( Emi )
TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )
LenSaar ( Devotary of Spontaneity )
Lord Malikihal ( The_God_King )
The Young Pyromancer ( The Young Pyromancer )
Locke Tekiel ( Orlok Tsubodai ) Renowned/Gossip Criminal
Lady Arielle ( Arraenae ) Criminal Gossip!
Julius ( Dot )
Hammond ( Megasif )
Lord Gavin Verduex ( Hemalurgic Headshot )
mad watcher ( little wilson )
Lady Telina Maladroi ( DeTess )
Lord Laborn ( Bugsy )
Muriel Ladrian ( Furamirionind ) Gossip Constable
Lord Hadrian Penrod ( Araris Valerian ) Criminal Gossip
a smart guy ( Sart )
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@The Young Pyromancer, why Rae of all people?

There was only a single bit of vote manip this cycle, which was probably a self-defense move by Elkanah.

I'm ging to start this cycle off with a vote on Coda. I'm suspicious of them, as I explained last cycle, and they've been pretty silent as well, so I hope this'll prompt some response from them.

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Quote

5th Octant Constable: You have a secondary objective here tonight. In addition to any other skills you have, you will learn the identity and alignment of whomever kills Dowser. Any action you take that targets Dowser will become a kill action. You lose if the game ends with Dowser alive.

Dowser: You have a secondary objective here tonight. In addition to your Smuggler role, you will learn the identity and alignment of whomever kills 5th Constable. Any action you take that targets 5th Constable will become a kill action. You lose if the game ends with 5th Constable alive.

Does this apply to lynching? If it does i guess elims know the alignment of a lot of people, perhaps even bleeder.

Pyro might want to tell us...

we could also look for people who changed their vote off Elkanah after they claimed Dowser.

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

I'm ging to start this cycle off with a vote on Coda. I'm suspicious of them, as I explained last cycle, and they've been pretty silent as well, so I hope this'll prompt some response from them.

 

51 minutes ago, Megasif said:

With gaps in my knowledge for this game, let's try this. Coda

Someone care to explain why you are voting on Coda?

It seems strange that you both jump on someone who is not the outed and claimed elim?

It is a bit too obvious, but i don't know.

One of you could be bleeder, and the other an elim or village doing something weird.

I don't think Hammond was bleeder, so megasif is not bleeder.

still might be DeTess.

or they are both elim.

I dont know, i just think we should at least kill the elim first.

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7 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Someone care to explain why you are voting on Coda?

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

coda

Coda is a member of the 'defended straw C1 club'. That's fairly NAI though. What I think is more noteworthy is their post C2 where they vote on straw. The way they highlight how they had been fooled by Straw feels a bit over-acted, like an elim trying to compensate for an earlier defense. I also find it noteworthy that they seemed to beleive Karnage's claim of being flogs independently of their claim on Straw's alignment. Those seemed pretty linked to me. The way that was phrased makes it seem to me that Coda knew karnage wasn't an elim to begin with.

At the moment I'm fairly suspicious of Coda.

I don't really know why megasif has decided to vote on Coda though. @Megasif, some explanation would be nice.

Edited by DeTess
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8 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Coda is a member of the 'defended straw C1 club'. That's fairly NAI though. What I think is more noteworthy is their post C2 where they vote on straw. The way they highlight how they had been fooled by Straw feels a bit over-acted, like an elim trying to compensate for an earlier defense. I also find it noteworthy that they seemed to beleive Karnage's claim of being flogs independently of their claim on Straw's alignment. Those seemed pretty linked to me. The way that was phrased makes it seem to me that Coda knew karnage wasn't an elim to begin with.

Hm, as long as it has a reason...

I still think we should be lynching Pyromancer.

 

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5 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Hm, as long as it has a reason...

I still think we should be lynching Pyromancer.

 

speaking of which, why do you think we should lynch Pyro now? What useful information do you think we'll gain if we do so? For example, I'd prefer to learn whether the elims have a bodyguard by letting the bartender try to deal with Pyro instead. If that doesn't work, we can waste a cycle dealing with pyro.

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4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

speaking of which, why do you think we should lynch Pyro now? What useful information do you think we'll gain if we do so? For example, I'd prefer to learn whether the elims have a bodyguard by letting the bartender try to deal with Pyro instead. If that doesn't work, we can waste a cycle dealing with pyro.

I dont think the elims will try to protect pyro if they have a bodyguard.

even if they were planning to, our conversation will probably dissuade them.

 

now that you think of it, we could wait for bartender to kill pyro, although that is a little bit more risky.

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2 hours ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

now that you think of it, we could wait for bartender to kill pyro, although that is a little bit more risky.

It is an even hour, though. I personally say we wait.

Now Elkanah wasn't Bleeder. That's bad. 

Karnage/Flogs died. That is very bad.

So, are we focusing on Bleeder or are we focusing on Coda? Do we think Coda is Bleeder? Cause if Winsting dies we all lose so I think Bleeder is top priority.

Who could Bleeder be... well wilson was the first Elk vote and already was suspect 2. Archivist also said this, yesterday:

Quote

Elkanah: If Devotary is to be trusted, he had an interaction with Araris, who died, and Karnage, who Bleeder almost certainly tried to kill. If Elkanah is revealed to be Village, a lot of suspicion will fall on Devotary, so I tend to trust him on this.

So there is also that. But what is the village's priority right now? I think it should probably be finding Bleeder.

I'm hating myself for doing this but @The Young Pyromancer you said you might have a way to find the real Bleeder? By all means try because right now finding bleeder is also the elim's best chance of not loosing. Maybe a go-between might be a good idea until Bleeder is dead?

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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Guest Coda
3 hours ago, DeTess said:

coda

Coda is a member of the 'defended straw C1 club'. That's fairly NAI though. What I think is more noteworthy is their post C2 where they vote on straw. The way they highlight how they had been fooled by Straw feels a bit over-acted, like an elim trying to compensate for an earlier defense. I also find it noteworthy that they seemed to beleive Karnage's claim of being flogs independently of their claim on Straw's alignment. Those seemed pretty linked to me. The way that was phrased makes it seem to me that Coda knew karnage wasn't an elim to begin with.

At the moment I'm fairly suspicious of Coda.

I was feeling a little dramatic, and I thought Karnage was telling the truth. I don't really see why this is very suspicious. I also don't really see how I can defend myself. You are suspicious of me because I realized Straw was an elim and utilized excessive verbosity to elaborate my opinions. I resign myself to my fate.

Are we going after Bleeder or just trying to kill all the elims? Given that Flogs is dead despite my advice in C1 (I specifically told you not to die!) I am of the opinion that we should at least make a cursory, leisurely attempt to discover Bleeder's identity. If you think that you should kill me, go ahead. Just keep in mind that Bleeder is one lucky kill away from winning.

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20 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Coda

Just wanted to see where this went to be honest. Detess and Coda both probably village - at least I'm leaning village on them as of right now. And Archivist as well.

@Megasif When you retract a vote it's required to cast a new one. It says it in the rules, apparently just a Joe quirk.

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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