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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting


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Well, this is pretty much redundant at this point, but Straw. I should've trusted my gut, instead of switching to Karnage. Karnage supposedly revealing himself is extremely problematic. If he isn't Bleeder, we can presume that he will be attacked every cycle. There isn't a surefire way to keep him protected, especially because of the bodyguards not being able to target someone twice in a row. Hopefully we'll have a couple cycles, but once he's dead, we'll be in sudden death due to Winsting appearing. At that point, we'll need to focus on finding Bleeder rather than finding the Constables. That's problematic, because she can't be killed by any vigilantes. We'll have to lynch her, but that's like finding a needle in a haystack. I propose that if anyone survives a night kill from now on, we lynch them. This obviously excludes Karnage. We can't afford to have Bleeder win, and though it might kill discussion, we'll need to focus our lynch on her.

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4 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

 

I absolutely agree. But it doesn't mean it's not fun!

@Straw, after ten minutes of searching I am 90% sure I opened every box. And found nothing. So..... I missed one but don't feel like re-doing it.

Also: Is it safe to say that @Hammond42 will not be joining the game even though he signed up? His only post ever was asking to join.

 

1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I think it's safe to say he forgot entirely. His only post on the entire site was signing up.

I asked Hammond in our PM if he would be joining us. If he has not responded by rollover tonight, he will be removed from the game, and his role and alignmenr given to someone else.

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Just now, Sart said:

Well, this is pretty much redundant at this point, but Straw. I should've trusted my gut, instead of switching to Karnage. Karnage supposedly revealing himself is extremely problematic. If he isn't Bleeder, we can presume that he will be attacked every cycle. There isn't a surefire way to keep him protected, especially because of the bodyguards not being able to target someone twice in a row. Hopefully we'll have a couple cycles, but once he's dead, we'll be in sudden death due to Winsting appearing. At that point, we'll need to focus on finding Bleeder rather than finding the Constables. That's problematic, because she can't be killed by any vigilantes. We'll have to lynch her, but that's like finding a needle in a haystack. I propose that if anyone survives a night kill from now on, we lynch them. This obviously excludes Karnage. We can't afford to have Bleeder win, and though it might kill discussion, we'll need to focus our lynch on her.

Only message i have read today, and i think you are all missing something...

you said kill everyone who survived... why not karnage?

i mean...

why are they different.

I want an answer to this before i vote though

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Just now, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Only message i have read today, and i think you are all missing something...

you said kill everyone who survived... why not karnage?

i mean...

why are they different.

I want an answer to this before i vote though

How bout you go to the beginning to the thread and read it. There's too much to explain.

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You really need to read today. Essentially, Karnage role-claimed Flogs. He says that he scanned Straw and Straw was a constable. Straw claimed constable. Pyro did too.

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Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

I was bored, and I wanted my first game to be memorable. Not sure why Straw claimed. Pretty sure why Orlok did though.

Yes, as a joke. My very helpful village teammates cleared that up for me :) 

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2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

? really Matrim? I thought you were more subtle.

At this point in the game no one is. And that is just my assumptions anyway, I have no real idea. But I mean I can claim village and that's not a confirmation anyway since Straw did that earlier today, along with a lot of other people. Orlok included, if you read his long posts.

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I don't even know what these last couple of pages in the cycle even mean. I'm just going to wait hear in the corner and let the ceiling stop spinning :P

No analysis because I don't think there's been much since yesterday when I was posting. Next cycle will bring some interesting information

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Jesus Christ, you guys are actually trying to kill me here. Remind me to never get behind on this game again.

Also, I typed out my responses below as I read the thread. If I respond with outdated information, it's because I was responding before I read the more recent posts.

On 5/27/2020 at 5:21 AM, DeTess said:

@Karnage, out of curiosity, why didn't you claim gambler? Given the D1 lynch situation, it might have caused the entire lynch to switch off you.

The kill on Araris is also interesting. I don't think they where particularly trusted, so its an odd kill for the elims. Bleeder likewise wouldn't really want to shoot for a potential elim, so I can't see Bleeder submitting that kill either, and if she had, ti would require the elim team to abstain from killing, which makes no sense (meanwhile, bleeder could go and scan people instead of killing, which is just as good fro them if they are not under pressure).

The only good elim motive for an Araris kill I can see is if they wanted the village to think things about Sart. The obvious play would be that they where trying to make Sart look good, but that might be obvious enough that they'd instead want us to think the opposite, so its mostly just a deep IKYK.

I think I'm going to put my vote back on Sart for now. I really don't like how they voted purely for self-preservation last cycle.

edit: @A Joe in the Bush, would a double-tap be mentioned as such? That is, if Araris had been the target of Both bleeder and the elims (and/or, if that had been an even a cycle, a bartender), would we be told?

I agree that a claim should have been made. Not sure why he didn't make one.

I'm also put off a bit by the kill on Araris. My analysis earlier actually had me going down a bit of a rabbit hole on him, until I saw he'd died. Maybe it was the result of a redirect? I don't think the IKYK with Sart is a plausible explanation. I don't feel like it's an obvious enough connection for them to bluff us out like that.

On 5/27/2020 at 5:46 AM, The_Archivist said:

I was a little hesitant about this at first, but it's a fairly obvious thing, so I'll say it. Karnage is either a Gambling Tycoon or Flogs. If he is Flogs, we must not let him die. If Flogs dies, both the elims and the villagers will be much closer to losing, so we can work together on this. The bodyguards can protect him, but not twice in a row, which means they need to communicate somehow.

If a bodyguard trusts @little wilson enough to believe her claim that she is a gossip, he can PM her, saying he is a bodyguard. If more than one bodyguard does that, and she really is a gossip, she can send them a PM, telling them which one will protect this cycle, and who the next one. If only one does she can warn three people she thinks might be bodyguards, and tell them someone else is already protecting him.

I know this requires a lot of trust, and if she's Bleeder, she knows the identity of some bodyguards, which is horrible. I still believe it's our best bet. The odds of wilson being Bleeder are pretty slim, all things considered, and if she's an elim gossip, I would rather take that chance than let Bleeder target a potential Flogs. If she's a villager or elim of a different role, I don't think we actually lose enough to not risk it.

If Karnage is just a Gambling Tycoon, this is irrelevant, but I would rather not risk it, so I'm asking all bodyguards out there to try this plan.

I... really don't like the idea of having a mayor, and I don't think Wilson would want to be the mayor with her current playstyle either. This isn't meant to be a commentary on whether it's good strategy, it's just an element of the meta I don't love. 

On 5/27/2020 at 6:22 AM, DeTess said:

@The ArchivistI don't think its a good idea to use anyone who claims gossip as a go-between until their alignment is more solidly known. I'm not so much worried about little wilson (or anyone else claiming gossip for this plan) being bleeder, but about her being an elim. Bleeder can't really do anything about the bodyguards revealed to her without risking being revealed herself. The elims likely have far more options, however.

Yeah, this is a good point too. Can't help but assume the Elims have at least one gossip - giving the village a near monopoly on PMs isn't Joe's style.

On 5/27/2020 at 9:40 AM, Straw said:

I find it very odd that Karnage didn't roleclaim at the end of the cycle. @Karnage any explanation for this? You must have seen that you were the most likely lynch candidate.

I'll put my vote on Karnage until he explains.

Again, agree with this. Karnage should have told everyone he'd survive as soon as it became obvious he was the lynch target. As it was, he lost us our chance to get info C1.

On 5/27/2020 at 0:34 PM, Kynedath said:

I also have a moderate trust of Straw since they had two votes removed from them. I don't feel like the eliminators would do that, it would have been an inefficient use of their actions.

It's possible. This Straw thing is actually a little suspicious for me, though. Eliminators would have no reason to move votes to protect Straw if he was one of them, and they know we know that. I feel like that was done in such a way they knew would draw attention to Straw, but which would also be dismissed by everyone as a transparent elim ploy. I think it's a double bluff, if I had to guess

On 5/27/2020 at 0:52 PM, DeTess said:

Araris defended Sart a bit when Sart got voted on.

Also, my apologies if the one that PM'd me about this expected me to be more subtle, but: @Furamirionind, could you explain why you targeted Araris last cycle? ( furamirionind )

Wow, wasn't expecting that. Thanks for finding us our first elim, stalker :P 

On 5/27/2020 at 3:06 PM, Karnage said:

Okay I am taking a HUGE risk.

I am Flogs

I am also a Gambling Tycoon

I was trying to decide whether it was a risk I should take but seeing as the conversation is already steering towards the idea that I am Flogs, I figured that Bleeder would be onto me soon anyways. 

Few things I was thinking

-There are probable 2 Bodyguards in the Village and maybe one in the elim faction.

- Elim faction wants to keep me alive so that Bleeder doesn't beet them

-If protection is coordinated the each turn I can be protected from Bleeder and the village is that much more closer to winning (same with the elim faction

-If the Bodyguards each send me a PM offering their protection (I promise not to reveal your role to the thread unless I get permission) then I can respond each hour to one (that one would then protect me) while the others protect others on that turn. Each turn I will respond to each one and hopefully forever stay safe from the likes of Bleeder.

- Not only does this help the village but it also helps the elims (except for the fact that I can scan people:o)

Speaking of Scanning-

I decided to scan straw because they are very hard to read, because they are so integral to the discussion in every game that I have been in with them. I scanned them and Joe replied with saying that they are Constable. Straw

Are we allowed to screen shot pm's? I will wait for a response before I post again.

Hopefully this stirs the pot for the better for the village. If you are a bodyguard and you want either the village or elim team to win I suggest you pm me. 

-Karnage

...so I know I said I wasn't expecting that last thing, but this seems determined to one up it. I don't know if this is true, because I'm still a little suspicious of you, but I don't see this strategy ending well for an eliminator. I think that the only roles to pull this would be whoever's actually Flogs, a bluffing villager, or Bleeder.

For each of those cases:

Actually Flogs: Well, crem. You've drawn the attention of the elims, by outing them, and also the attention of Bleeder.

Bluffing Villager: My immediate reaction towards this possibility was thinking it was a dumb thing to do, but I may have rushed to judgement. It would mean throwing a pretty big wrench in a lot of things, but drawing Bleeder's fire for a cycle might actually be a good strategy.

Bleeder / Tycoon: Clever. If you get attacked by anyone now, it'll say a bodyguard defended you, and for good reason. It also means you'll never be lynched. The only threat to you here is a counterclaim, and a counterclaim makes Flogs vulnerable. Also, Bleeder gets a scan just like Flogs, so it's entirely plausible you scanned Straw and know he's an elim.

I'm not sure which is more likely, honestly. I kinda hope it's the last one, though. That'd be a fantastic con to pull in your first game :P 

On 5/27/2020 at 3:27 PM, little wilson said:

sigh. just gonna say right now that joe is a troll and you probs shouldnt have roleclaimed cuz I wouldnt be surprised if theres only one bodyguard to prevent exactly what you are suggesting. things like that have happened in previous games joes run soooo thats fun.

regardless i said straw was off. what say all you peeps who were like nooooooo straw be a good one! dont kill him!

Yeah, Straw is definitely the most suspicious at this point. 

On 5/27/2020 at 3:32 PM, Arraenae said:

Pyro. Chances are that Karnage is going to get a Bleeder kill aimed their way after this claim and will die soon anyways. A villager has pretty much no reason to falsely claim that they scanned someone as an eliminator, so the easiest way to verify this is to lynch Straw. The fact that you don't want to makes me think that you might be on Straw's team.

Honestly, I'll probably move my vote onto Straw later today, but I'd like to milk just a little bit more discussion out of this cycle. Please? Pile-ons tell us nothing until we get lynch results back.

This still feels weird to me. Not voting on Straw yet, even when he's a clear elim read, but saying you probably will later? It's a good way to not commit to voting on him unless he's going to die anyways, and good cover for shifting your vote at the last minute. I might be influenced a bit much by my bad gut read earlier, but you're not making it easy on me :P 

On 5/27/2020 at 3:59 PM, Straw said:

No, you can't screenshot PMs. Read the SE rules.

First of all, I'm not a Constable, so I know you're lying. That means you're doing a gambit. You could also be extorted, and incorrect by accident.

I see a few possibilities:

  1. You are Flogs, and were extorted. In this case, we should attempt to keep you alive. However, I'm curious as to why you didn't try to reveal your findings through someone else, rather than claiming to the thread? You're currently not too much danger of being lynched, what with DeTess stalking Fura, and I think people would be fairly willing to jump on a train on me if someone said that Flogs had scanned me. I also don't see why you'd claim so early in the cycle. It makes little logical sense, as you'd probably want to take more time to evaluate the situation and your options if you were actually Flogs.
  2. You are a villager attempting a gambit. I could completely believe that a new player would try something like this. However, it doesn't seem that well thought out. I could see you basically just using it as a super-vote on me, and praying that I'm an elim. I could also see you doing it to try to draw Bleeder's attention, allowing the real Flogs to stay alive for longer. In this case, I'm not sure why you'd claim I'm an elim, instead of claiming I'm a villager. The final thing I could see for this option, and the most unlikely in my opinion, is you trying to get actual elims to contact you, so you can out them to the thread and admit that you didn't actually scan me. Sorry for wrecking this if it is what you're trying, but I have to defend myself.
  3. You are an eliminator attempting to escape the lynch. Doing this would probably be a decent decision for the elim team. You can get an easy mislynch on me, and then try to defend yourself by saying you were extorted. As an added bonus, you can out all the bodyguards that contact you to the elim team, allowing the elim team to wipe them out. Sure, it'd most likely end in a lynch on you, but it'd be good for the elim team in general.
  4. You are Bleeder with Gambling Tycoon as well, and are attempting to place yourself in a position of trust. I think that this would actually be a very strong strategy for Bleeder. Drawing the bodyguard kills onto yourself would stop bodyguards from interfering with your other kills. Flogs could try to counterclaim via an intermediary, but you could probably deflect long enough to out them. Once they died, Winstig would be in play, and you'd just have to pray for their death. After all, Bleeder doesn't have to be alive to win. If you lynch me, you could just claim you'd been extorted when I flip village. You could then use some of your alignment scans to establish yourself as Flogs by giving some correct reads. You could explain the absence of kills as Bleeder testing your defenses or trying to throw suspicion on you.

Yeah, so those are my thoughts.

Furamirionind. Karnage.

If 4 is the case, I think it's more likely he actually scanned you and you flipped Elim. I know some players like the motto "confirmed good does not mean confirmed right" - for Karnage, in this particular case, "confirmed right does not mean confirmed good". 

On 5/27/2020 at 4:58 PM, Matrim's_Dice said:

So I had this big proposition but it looks like everyone is voting Straw already.

Basically it was, let's lynch Straw this cycle. If Karnage is Flogs and is telling the truth, then we found an elim. Yay.

It Karnage isn't Flogs, then oof, sorry Straw. But then we can all lynch Karnage anyway for C3.

The more I think about it the more I realize how stupid it would be to imitate Flogs. That is basically asking for Bleeder to kill you and everyone to be suspicious. So yeah, I trust Karnage at the moment.

Unless he is Bleeder :P Then it seems like a pretty good strategy. 

On 5/27/2020 at 4:52 PM, Orlok Tsubodai said:

If Straw is evil, as I believe him to be, I'm pretty convinced that BR and Shard are evil. Pyro I am absolutely convinced is evil either way. Another long post being worked on, will follow at some point in the next four hours.

Hmm. Could you give a bit of an explanation as to why BR and Shard? I don't remember anything substantive that would point to that, although it's possible. 

On 5/27/2020 at 5:49 PM, Arraenae said:

Okay. Let's look through all the possible scenarios for Karnage and Straw’s alignment.
 

1. Karnage is Flogs, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they are Flogs. Once they get verification of that, Bleeder will attempt to kill Karnage. To win, Bleeder only needs to kill two people, Flogs and Winsting, which means that Bleeder can afford to spam kills against Flogs until one breaks through. I don't think that Karnage will be able to successfully coordinate bodyguard protects long enough to stay alive the whole game. 

For one thing, Karnage assumes that there are at least two bodyguards in the game. This is a Joe game. Nothing is guaranteed. Secondly, Karnage assumes that at least two bodyguards will be willing to protect him. If, like he assumes, there is one Constable bodyguard and one Criminal bodyguard, I'm not sure that the Constable bodyguard would bother. In this scenario, Karnage just outed Straw. That probably burned through any goodwill the Constables might have towards them. The Constables have every reason to expect that Karnage will continue trying to lynch them. 

What's more, even assuming that there are at least two bodyguards in the game, and assuming that they are willing to protect Karnage, I don't see this arrangement working out for long. What if the bodyguards don't want to use their 1 PM solely to check in on Karnage? What if a bodyguard finds some other villager who they also think is likely to die? What if a bodyguard goes inactive and forgets to submit a protective order? For all of those reasons, I assume that Karnage is not going to live very long. Bleeder has every incentive to keep attacking them until they are dead.

If we assume that Karnage is Flogs, I don't think it's worth lynching them to verify, because of this likely death. We will know their alignment once Bleeder kills them. I expect it’ll take three cycles, max. If they’re miraculously still alive by then, we can re-evaluate the situation.
 

2. Karnage is a Criminal, and Straw is a Constable.

In this case Karnage would’ve guessed and is trying to play Flogs to absorb a Bleeder kill. Very unlikely.
 

3. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Criminal.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die. (The only way for the Constable team to fake a result like this would be for them to spend multiple night kills on Karnage, while also protecting them, which means they spend a lot of resources to gain very little.)

There are several ways to see this scenario is likely. If Bleeder does not attack Karnage, then we lynch Karnage. if Straw’s alignment is found to be village, either through an alignment scan or lynch, then we lynch Karnage. If Bleeder attacks Karnage and Karnage dies, then obviously we will know Karnage’s alignment. We can do all of that without having to lynch Karnage this cycle.

If this scenario turns out to be true, we probably can learn things about the Constable team. There are certain players who I cannot see agreeing to this plan, which means that we can rule them out if they have similar times of online activity as Karnage.
 

4. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die.

In this case, the Constable team would basically be trading Straw’s life for Karnage. I'm not sure why they would do that, because we can still use the methods outlined in scenario 3 to get an idea of Karnage's alignment, and then the Constable team would have basically traded in two lives for nothing. I really don't think this is likely.
 

5. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder is automatically protected against kills as if they had a bodyguard. It's possible this means that Karnage would be able to attack themselves and survive, and get a writeup saying that they were attacked and survived. I could even see Joe giving the single serial killer role an extra life just to make sure that they don't die early in a scenario like what just happened here. Again, this is a Joe game, so role distributions are likely to be trolly, but it's not impossible.

This scenario is actually the hardest to disprove. If we lynch Straw, and find that he is a Constable, that would mean this is scenario 1 or 5. One way to disprove a situation like this would be if we found every single bodyguard in the game, and they said that none of them were protecting Karnage on a cycle that they were attacked. This would be really hard to do, for obvious reasons. Another way would be for Flogs to counterclaim, but in that case Karnage would kill the counterclaimer and be halfway to completing their wincon. We’d probably lynch Karnage the next turn, but that’s closer than I’d like for things to get.

Out of all the scenarios that have been outlined, this is the only one that can't be immediately disproven or doesn't have negative effects for Karnage. If we assume that Karnage is a rational actor, then this becomes much more likely.
 

6. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Criminal.

If Straw flips Criminal when Karnage claimed that he's a Constable, then the next obvious lynch target is Karnage. This scenario is really, really unlikely. 
 

7. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is Flogs.

Well, why try to get Straw lynched then if Straw is immune to the lynch? Near impossible.

All good analysis. The actual content is NAI, and my gut read on this post is actually good. I'll go through and check some of your posts in more detail tonight, I suppose, because you keep throwing my reads off. 

On 5/27/2020 at 10:12 PM, little wilson said:

pyyyyyyyyyyrrrrrrrrroooooooo he be so sus - he sent it about the time he voted on karnage.

Yup, that's definitely suspicious. Straw and Pyro seem most likely to me as elims right now.

23 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I read your posts Orlok. You can tell by how I stopped spelling your name wrong.

Right, you guessed me. Good job. I'm an elim.

The post at the beginning of the game, ironically, was something I had decided upon before I joined. 

Also, I didn't lie to Wilson. I was telling the truth, as we think there's a decent chance Arais was doubletapped. When I die and flip Stalker, maybe you'll believe me.

EDIT: Flame On!

...well, then. Straw and Pyro seem to be confirmed elims right now :P 

13 hours ago, DeTess said:

He has said some (in my opinion) suspicious things, and he targeted Araris last cycle (as determined using the stalker power). Araris was targeted by the elims (or possibly, but unlikely, bleeder) to kill him, so anyone targeting araris is suspect.

Regarding suspicious actions, some of Fura's suggestions this cycle could be construed as trying to protect Straw (such as the suggestion to lynch someone else and let straw be killed by a village bartender, who we don't even know exists yet). He also did some analysis last cycle on elim team size that conveniently ignored the point at which the elims have a basic majority, instead focusing purely on when they can disperse the party. This stood out to me because I don't think Fura would have missed that if he had been doing that analysis pure, rather than trying to sell a specific agenda.

Hmm. Actually, isn't it the case that during this cycle Fura was voted on by Straw and voted on Pyro? He did both without making really sizable arguments for why either was bad, too. That feels like a distancing strategy to me, and one that Fura was a part of. I say he's priority number 3 right now, at least on my list. 

11 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Bleeder has a scan you know.

@Bugsy Orlok was outed as an elim, but we've done the math with the elim's vote manip, and we need you to vote on him to seal the deal. Please, act now!

I swear you made me question my sanity for a minute when I read this :P 

11 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I was outed? When? I thought we agreed to keep my alignment quiet, Pyro. What's the point in busing the three of you if you go and reveal my alignment?...

You're not helping with the whole "questioning my sanity" thing, just for the record :P 

 

From here to being current, there's enough trolling I'm not going to even attempt to analyze it. I'm officially current now, though.


TLDR: Killing Straw and Pyro are our priorities right now, but with the suspicious action Fura took last night and the fact that he seemed to be distancing from Straw and Pyro before they were burned today makes me suspect him as well. I'm also curious if any redirect moved someone to target Araris - I don't know why the Elims would kill him otherwise, frankly. 

 

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See everyone tomorrow for C3. Today was fun :P Bye Straw. (BTW, one last question for you: When I misread the player list during C1, what was your actual response to my eager lynch attempt before I withdrew it?)

Vote count for anyone who cares the exact number:

  • Fura (2): DeTess, Elkanah 
  • Straw(21): Karnage, wilson, Emi, Pyro, Striker, Orlok, Matrim, Xino, Devotary, Reading, BR, Coda, TGK, Experience, Kynedath, DeTess, Archivist, Sart, Mist, Arraenae, Bugsy 
  • Karnage(1): Straw 
  • Pyro(1): Fura 

Silberfarben, Zillah, Dot, and Hemalurgic Headshot (and technically Hammond) have not voted, though that doesn't really matter all that much, especially at this point.

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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Ahhhh so many posts!!!!!!

I’m sorry to all of you for dipping out, however I’m spending Friday-Sunday out bushcamping and I’ve been busy getting ready. So I won’t be here for most of next cycle and the next. My apologies to everyone, I will be back full swing after that! 

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