Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Mat]

I was hoping for a quiet night but clearly I didn't get my wish...

So, I don't even know. I doubt the elims are giving up, remember there are 8 or 9 so they might be getting us to think they are giving up so we disperse. Remember that.

6 minutes ago, Emi said:

Or maybe you're an elim…

The thought crossed my mind as well. Of course I am slightly suspicious of you so I dunno.

5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Seriously though, why do you do this to yourself? We resolved not to kill you until C3-4 at the earliest, because you said to treat you like a new player, but then you go and do tons of analysis and screw us over like that. Now we can't kill you, so you're going to uncover even more of us eventually. And it's not like you don't know what you're doing; you could just choose not to take notes on EVERY post and be more casual. 

Either this is a complete elim failure or an elaborate plot of madness. Whatever one I DIDN'T EXPECT MY FIRST GAME TO BE THIS RIDICULOUS. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Shard of Reading]

1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Either this is a complete elim failure or an elaborate plot of madness. Whatever one I DIDN'T EXPECT MY FIRST GAME TO BE THIS RIDICULOUS. 

In response to your first thing the elims are just going insane. That is all I can say, and ditto.

[The Young Pyromancer]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Either this is a complete elim failure or an elaborate plot of madness. Whatever one I DIDN'T EXPECT MY FIRST GAME TO BE THIS RIDICULOUS. 

It's because of Orlok. He always does this, so people kill him C1. We were nice and decided to give him a bit, then he wrecked us by targeting me and Straw, our only scanner-type roles. Now we won't be able to look for bleeder, and you forced our hands in regards to Karnage!

Also, re: elim stalker, that's me.

And I was being legit about Elkanah, as well as my first controversial post being legit. Check with me after the game if you want. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer
typo

[Mat]

2 hours ago, Karnage said:

Right now I am trying to choose between wether to scan Orlock

Do it, I say. Pyro's claim must be confirmed or denied ASAP I think.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Elkanah]

9 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Did the.... are the elims giving up? What is going on. Umm, since the elims are revealing things willy nilly i've got a question.

So Pyro, Orlok Straw, and one mor eperson are outed as elims. Or self outed.

Can someone point out the one other outed elim?

Also, wow this has been a productive 1 1/2 cycles. This has got to be a record right?

The other outed elim is Fura... But maybe not? We have a confirmation that they targeted Araris who was night killed, which probably means

5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Also, I like how Karnage is like 'I want to work with the elims to kill Bleeder first' right after supposedly outing an elim? And then you go and talk about how you want to work together to make an 'unkillable scanner' that has JUST PROVEN themselves willing to reveal elims? Now you've got both us AND bleeder after you to kill you as soon as possible.

Yeah that pretty much sums that up

 

 

At least it's a memorable one

2 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Either this is a complete elim failure or an elaborate plot of madness. Whatever one I DIDN'T EXPECT MY FIRST GAME TO BE THIS RIDICULOUS. 

8 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Did the.... are the elims giving up? What is going on. Umm, since the elims are revealing things willy nilly i've got a question.

Even tho we cannot trust y'all completely can yall tell us how many elims there are (from the begining of the game. 

So Pyro, Orlok Straw, and one mor eperson are outed as elims. Or self outed.

Can someone point out the one other outed elim?

Also, wow this has been a productive 1 1/2 cycles. This has got to be a record right?

My phone quoted you again. I guess it liked this post.

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

me and Straw, our only scanner-type roles.

This pretty much kills my suspicions on Emi assuming I buy that 1. She is actually a Stalker and 2. I believe Pyro saying they are the only scanner-type roles. Which I don't really, so I dunno. Again. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[The_Archivist]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Do it, I say. Pyro's claim must be confirmed or denied ASAP I think. 

I don't know, I'm pretty confident this is a troll from a person who knows they're dead, trying to sow chaos. It's might not be a bad idea to scan him, as he's a pretty active person, just don't do it because of Pyro's claim.

[Karnage]

Well if there are any villagers that want to help out, I would very much like to keep both lives.

I gotta go. 

Be back, don't go cray while i'm gone.

[Emi]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

This pretty much kills my suspicions on Emi

Yeah, I'm lying realy rarely, unless I really need to

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Emi said:

lying realy rarely, unless I really need to

This means you have before... Now I think I'll go read Orlok's post looking specifically at your comments.

[The Young Pyromancer]

1 minute ago, Emi said:

Yeah, I'm lying realy rarely, unless I really need to

Same, actually.

[Emi]

1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

This means you have before... Now I think I'll go read Orlok's post looking specifically at your comments.

Only when my parents ask me to do something, then they go on a walk and while it they call me if i already did this thing

(They can get pretty mad, when I don't, especially because I'm REALLY NOT an organised person)

[Shard of Reading]

6 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Be back, don't go cray while i'm gone.

Good luck with that.

[Mat]

Just now, Emi said:

Only when my parents ask me to do something, then they go on a walk and while it they call me if i already did this thing

(They can get pretty mad, when I don't, especially because I'm REALLY NOT an organised person)

That is not what I meant but okay.

If that's what you mean then my analysis is useless but here it is anyway:

Emi has really only posted questions and votes/retractions. That's it. No reads, no analysis, nothing. So there really isn't anything for her to have even lied about. Except her roleclaim as a Stalker. If Emi was referring to this game when she said she's lying really rarely then this is it. If not then the post was completely useless. I doubt it. 

My suspicions of Emi are back on, to me this looks like a slip that they have lied before, then an elim teammate warned her in the elim doc and she quickly corrected it.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I don't know though, right now seems like a bad time to throw out this analysis.

In reading Orlok's post I also noticed two things: 1. Every time Emi posted ANYTHING Orlok read it as village. 2. Ever time Pyro posted ANYTHING Orlok read it as elim.

I personally think that all 3 are elim, (I'm gonna get hammered for saying this): but again I don't know. This game is a mess anyway.

[The Young Pyromancer]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

2. Ever time Pyro posted ANYTHING Orlok read it as elim.

Except that one time I forgot the Renowned weren't alignment scanners. And all my stuff he read as NAI.

[Mat]

13 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Pyro Says he is going to be less active as he doesn't want to die early. Not helpful to village. Obfuscates reads. Mild evil

 

13 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Pyro Complains about Straw being suspicious of those who post less. Remains committed to it. Overacting? Seems committed to low involvement playstyle. Mild evil

 

13 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Pyro Again says he has never been mafia. Says he is disappointed not to be soemthing interesting. Very strong gut against this. EVIL

 

13 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Pyro Thinks Emi suspicious. Retracts Elkanah, votes on Emi. Thinks Orlok suspicious. Disagree vehemently re Emi. Strong evil

 

13 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Pyro Says in first game tricked people into thinking more experienced player, so believes reverse possible. Disagree - see point about judgement. Mild evil

 

[little wilson]

wait some of yous actually think orlok was serious when he claimed elim?

totes reading emi as very confused village. vaguely reminds me of me if me had been younger when me started playing here.

pyro sounds like a self-defeated elim. gut says hes actually been telling the truth most of the time since he outed himself. me am actually inclined to believe him about elk now. straw seems to be the main troll rn.

also since me made a similar request as orlok me will just say that if strategy dictates me must die this cycle me is okay with this. me has learned that me can still have fun playing. me also will be taking back what me said about the lowercase no air commas being only this game. this has been muuuuuch too much fun and me must try it at least once more :))))))

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

if strategy dictates me must die this cycle me is okay with this.

When has anyone ever said anything about that?

[Straw]

20 minutes ago, little wilson said:

straw seems to be the main troll rn.

Another false accusation. 

[Shard of Reading]

I don't know. You don't seem to have given anything of weight to this conversation.

[Kynedath]

Yeah, I totally thought Orlok was being sarcastic, that is 100% how I read that comment.

8 hours ago, DeTess said:

@Kynedath I'll get some actual analysis out soonish, but the combination of RL business and this game being ridiculously active has kept the amount of actual in-depth analysis I can do down. I think we've played enough games together that you should know by now that a change in playstyle like this is NAI for me, as I'm just as analytical as an elim if I have the time to do that. Also, could you answer those questions I asked you about your initial suspicion last cycle? I find it somewhat telling that you didn't respond to that yet.

Since coming back and seeing your recent posts I feel a lot less sketchy about you now I think, it was that one post with like two lines that had really thrown me for a loop.

In regards to your questions to me, I must have totally missed them. I'm going to assume you're referring to these:

Quote

Regarding your slight suspicion regarding my warning on people seemingly being protected by bodyguards: Am I wrong, given the way bleeder's self-protect works? And If I'm not, why is me pointing it out anything other than NAI?

No, you're not wrong about the way it works mechanically, however since you advocated for bodyguards to not protect people who had already survived an attack once it would make those players easy targets for bleeder and therefore take away most analytical merit to those kills. That is assuming that the player was protected by a bodyguard and not bleeder themselves. If it were bleeder who had been attacked and survived then asking bodyguards not to protect them wouldn't affect bleeder since they are not going to die from an attack anyways.

Reading back on all of these posts makes me suspect you less, your logic in your defence is completely sound.

[Straw]

2 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

I don't know. You don't seem to have given anything of weight to this conversation.

I'll just respond with this:

Quote

"Oho!" said the pot to the kettle;
"You are dirty and ugly and black!
Sure no one would think you were metal,
Except when you're given a crack."

"Not so! not so!" kettle said to the pot;
"'Tis your own dirty image you see;
For I am so clean – without blemish or blot –
That your blackness is mirrored in me."

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Seriously though, why do you do this to yourself? We resolved not to kill you until C3-4 at the earliest, because you said to treat you like a new player, but then you go and do tons of analysis and screw us over like that. Now we can't kill you, so you're going to uncover even more of us eventually. And it's not like you don't know what you're doing; you could just choose not to take notes on EVERY post and be more casual. 

Also, I like how Karnage is like 'I want to work with the elims to kill Bleeder first' right after supposedly outing an elim? And then you go and talk about how you want to work together to make an 'unkillable scanner' that has JUST PROVEN themselves willing to reveal elims? Now you've got both us AND bleeder after you to kill you as soon as possible.

My apologies, Pyro. Just to check, why can't you kill me?

[DeTess]

2 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

When has anyone ever said anything about that?

I think pyro suggested something like that. It makes a reasonable amount of sense as an elim play to take out Orlok (and possibly Wilson) ASAP because of their role in trying to get Straw lynched C1. Orlok should be heavily trusted as being non-elim (note: no action by Orlok so far is out of character for Bleeder), I'd have to check Wilson's posts again to see if the same goes for her...

Actually, I have some time right now, so let's do that.

Little Wilson

Wilson was the first vote on Straw C1, which is somewhat unfortunate for reading her. Its ostensibly a good sign, but could, given the early point of the game and the fact that it was a vote based on gut, have been a distancing technique that backfired. This interpretation isn't helped by her seeming to prepare to back off from the Straw vote towards the end of C1.

C2 her first post is reinforcing her suspicion on Karnage and stating she won't cooperate with archivist's plan. This reads as village to me, both because she's deliberately denying herself a source of useful role-claims, and because villager would be more likely to feel that way about Karnage, while an elim would eb more likely to be worried about having flogs in the open... I'll get back to that post by the archivist in a bit.

For the rest of C2, Wilson has been talking sense (and making me laugh out loud a couple of times as well with her fun new writing style). That isn't really alignment indicative imho because with the Pyro and Straw revealed any elim team-mate paying attention should have been distancing as hard as they could, but its still nice to see. Her most recent post about her being okay with being killed by the elims, though... If it had been anyone else, I'd say that was way over the top* and would make me suspicious again. However, I know that Wilson tends to get pretty annoyed if she gets killed early on in a game after she's been away for a time, so this declaration from her actually makes sense, and makes me lean village.

So overall, I'm leaning villagenon-elim (note, whenever i'm talking about a village read, I'm actually meaning a non-elim read. Bleeder isn't as easy to catch, unfortunately) on Wilson. This is not as solid a read as on Orlok, but she looks pretty good overall.

Anyway, so I mentioned a post by Archivist a way back. I missed it the first time, but them immediately assuming that karnage is flogs and good now doesn't sit as well with me. A villager is less likely to make that assumption than an elim, as an elim would know that karnage is not evil. So, let's take a look at the archivist as well now (I'm getting ninja'd like crazy, btw)

The archivist

He gets to join the 'spoke in defense of Straw C1' club for starters. He did that as part of a larger set of reads though, which is nice to see. There wasn't much else C1 apart from a vote on TGK.

C2 they made the post I highlighted before. I also don't really like a lot of the rest of their activity. They spoke against the 'Karnage was extorted' theory, but then did suggest it cold be a potential bus, which feels like simultaneously distancing from straw while trying to keep the possibility for a karnage lynch later down the line open.

Overall, I'm feeling mildly suspicious of the archivist now.

 

*in an 'elims, as you are not my team-mates, I'll understand if you kill me. As that is something you do to trusted people that are not your team-mates. Did I mentioned that I'm not team-mates with the elims yet?' sort of way.

Edited May 28, 2020 by DeTess
grammar

[Furamirionind]

3 hours ago, DeTess said:

Regarding suspicious actions, some of Fura's suggestions this cycle could be construed as trying to protect Straw (such as the suggestion to lynch someone else and let straw be killed by a village bartender, who we don't even know exists yet). He also did some analysis last cycle on elim team size that conveniently ignored the point at which the elims have a basic majority, instead focusing purely on when they can disperse the party. This stood out to me because I don't think Fura would have missed that if he had been doing that analysis pure, rather than trying to sell a specific agenda

No... I genuinely missed that xD
I forgot that the regular lynch is also important. Because you're right, once the elims outnumber the village, they have control of the lynch, and will most likely win at that point. For some reason I had it in my head that the elims only took over the game at a 3/5th

3 hours ago, Emi said:

Yeah, I know, but you can not edit and quote

Oh, sorry, I'm learning, and I'm not good at this game yet. If I'm so, bad I can stop taking place in those games, I have a feeling, like anybody would like me here

Quick tip, there are other options too:
Copy/Pasting the quote into the post you are editing.
Using quoteation marks
Using the quote box, and @ing the person you are quoting.
Or anything else you can think of.

.You're not bad, but these games do take practice. The only way to get better is to play more. : )

Archivist's question to you was a legitamate response to your post, and is just trying to figure out if you are an elim or not.

2 hours ago, Karnage said:

Did the.... are the elims giving up? What is going on. Umm, since the elims are revealing things willy nilly i've got a question.

Even tho we cannot trust y'all completely can yall tell us how many elims there are (from the begining of the game. 

So Pyro, Orlok Straw, and one mor eperson are outed as elims. Or self outed.

Can someone point out the one other outed elim?

Also, wow this has been a productive 1 1/2 cycles. This has got to be a record right?

Orlok's "confession" was a joke. Jokes are NAI.

Aaaaand, actually no. There have been games won on the first cycle before. : P

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

I am really interested to hear what Fura claimed, but I guess it's not fair to ask. It was something that could prove he was not an eliminator. Clearly not a bodyguard or Araris would still be with us. Maybe a stalker (in this case it's probably better you don't tell us.) Could still be an elim stalker though, so that doesn't actually clear you. I'll have to give this some more thought. 

3 hours ago, Emi said:

I mean, technically proving my role won't prove anything about my alignment... But that's just a technically. : P

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

The other outed elim is Fura... But maybe not? We have a confirmation that they targeted Araris who was night killed, which probably means

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Targeting someone that died is not proof of being an elim. it's just suspicious. 

39 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

Reading back on all of these posts makes me suspect you less, your logic in your defence is completely sound.

This reads as very weird to me.Saying DeTess's defense is "completely sound"... Unless I'm misunderstanding what Kynedath is talking about, there is no "completely sound" defense barring being the primary force in lynching elims.

And now I'm back to school. I really didn't have time to sign up for a 30 person game. Lol