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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting


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Storms, guys, you’re making it impossible to catch up. All I’ve done so far is read through C1, and it’s already past 4AM by the time I’m starting to actually write my responses. Here goes nothing.

I just want to start by saying, I love the no unvoting rule. Makes any vote cast a lot higher stakes, makes for more meaningful vote swings, and leaves a more solid trail to follow in later analysis. It’s something I’d love to see in future games, as long as it doesn’t wind up being problematic here.

Now for my thoughts on the actual things that’ve been said:

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DeTess: There's both an elim team and a serial killer, and each of these can only win alone, so the elims will be looking to eliminate bleeder. However, bleeder needs to keep the elims around in some form, because bleeder loses if the party disperses, and if the village has reason to believe that all elims have been killed, they can safely disperse, whether bleeder is alive or not…

Because Bleeder's survival reads as a bodyguard protection,w e can't actually trust anyone that gets saved by a bodyguard, which is unfortunate. Luckily, the elims have a vested interest in Bleeder dying, so they might just decide to double-tap anyone that gets bodyguard protected

I’d honestly interpret the situation the other way around. The only people Bleeder’s incentivized to kill are villagers, and the Elims benefit from Bleeder’s continued existence to mask their own actions / detract from the village’s focus. Villagers also need to kill Bleeder to get the automatic dismissal of the party, whereas Eliminators can leave her alive if they want.

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Xinoehp: Interestingly enough, Flogs might actually be safer sharing their identity with a scanned constable instead of a scanned villager, as the constables have a vested interest in keeping him alive. Not that they should do this, of course, but its interesting to think about.

 

Uhhh. Let’s not have our seer claim to the eliminators, that sounds like it’d be a problem :P

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Since kill actions against Bleeder fail, she can only die by being lynched. Since the Constables very much want her dead, they will presumbably encourage her lynch. Interesting…

More people picking up on this “Elims want Bleeder dead” idea. I really don’t think it’d be right, though, at least if the Elims are playing strategically

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Striker: I would not put it past Joe to put in something like 9 elims this game, just to throw us off since we're all probably assuming that there's 7-8 elims based on percentage alone. At that point, I would assume that the elims wouldn't have very many powerful roles. That would be more than made up by the extra elim though.

 

With a role madness game, I don’t think Joe would make a larger-than-usual Elim team. That said, they do need 2/3 control to disperse, so it’s possible

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Wilson: joe made my gm pm all lowercase and it made me happy to see. im not even sad now that im not evil - id been planning on talking in the doc like this cuz it wouldve been hilllllarrrious and now i dont get to but its fine cuz im a gossip and therefore i get to talk in my pms like this its so wonderful. thats a roleclam btw. roleclam? whered the i go? fingers whyd you miss the i.

 

Wilson, you’re fantastic. This'll be a fun game :P

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Straw: On a separate note, xino's post bothers me when I look at it more. Some of the stuff is literally just repeating the role descriptions. It feels like a way to make it look like he's saying a lot while actually saying very little. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on him.

Hmm. This seems plausible.

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Matrim: The only problem now is that I have to vote on someone else.... Archivist I guess, following Straw's pattern of the first inactive person on the list. I'm not gonna say Araris because I don't want to start a train on someone who hasn't posted anything.

 

Well. The meta is definitely that poke votes should go on the same person as previous ones, because it actually makes them a credible threat. That said, Matrim doesn’t quite know the meta, so this is probably NAI. 

That said, if Araris is elim, be very suspicious of Matrim.

Added later: well, scratch that theory. Whoops.

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Karnage: Also... Little Wilson, I get that you want to relax and try a different play style, and I don't want you to change just for me, this is just a comment but, your new play style is very disconcerting and confusing to say the least. I can't tell if your just doing this to discombobulate everyone, or really just to relax and play a different style, or if you are using ti to hide any suspicious note that could somehow be written in.

Can confirm that this is just Wilson having fun. And honestly, I’m here for it :P

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The Young Pyromancer: And TBH, Bleeder's probably going to be around for a long time, because the odds of finding them are more or less 1/30

 

That’s perhaps a bit too pessimistic. Serial Killers don’t have a great track record of surviving in SE, and I feel like a role madness game in this vein doesn’t really help matters for them. My guess is Bleeder won’t survive to the endgame, with all the powers flying around. 

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Orlok: Can anyone with more experience playing with Coda tell me if this sort of platitude is typical of them? It strikes me as a bare faced attempt to appear village.

Hmm. Wouldn’t have picked this out myself, but it seems plausible. Worth keeping in mind, though I'd consider it a relatively minor factor in any analysis.

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Pyromancer: This means the Constables probably have some other way to deduce who is Bleeder, such as a scanner or Stalker. Though considering the size of the game, they probably have at least one anyways.

I rather doubt the Elims would have a stalker, that role seems kinda useless to them. Maybe they have a scanner, just so they can be sure not to hit Winston in the endgame? It feels like giving elims non-offensive roles is sort of a waste, though. 

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Rae: If he gives this much info in one day, how much more could he give us if we waited a few cycles before killing him? Verdict: I want to keep Straw alive. He's an active player prodding info out of reticent players and he's reminding me of some of the old guard. The sheer amount of reads he's putting out reads as mildly villagery, too, and I think discussion will be benefited a lot by keeping him alive to talk.

 

My gut is screaming at me not to trust you, @Arraenae. I’m not sure why, though. The closest I can come to articulating it is, it seems to me you want Straw alive as a soundscreen. Having C1 and C2 both focus on Straw-based controversy means he’ll give another cycle of cover.

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Rae: I know ties end with both parties being lynched. Guess the posters after me are really going to be able to make the choice, eh? Consider this a Chinese Fire Drill of sorts.

This isn’t making my read any better. Something about your post feels off to me, and this flippant comment seems like a good way to distance yourself from an unfavorable lynch.

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Orlok: A day one lynch should always be about information gathering. As much as I've been incredibly impressed by Straw's activity and engagement, the number of interactions he has had with other players suggests to me that we could generate a significant amount of information on D1 by lynching him at this point.

 

Ehh. Disagree. This would have a hugely chilling effect on D1 contribution, and it’s easier to get info by lynching someone like xinoehp, who’s related to the focal controversy but not the actor driving the majority of discussion.

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Orlok: My philosophy has long been that the village always needs to address the information imbalance with eliminators - in fact, that is the core mechanic of the game. A day one lynch based on suspicion is highly unlikely to be accurate - the suspicions are based on limited information, and limited connection between players. Day one therefore ought to be about finding as much information as possible, and identifying as many connections between players as we can.

 

I agree, again, that we need to level the information imbalance. I don’t think this would be the way to do that, and I think it would be a negative direction for the meta to head. 

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DeTess: This post really bothers me. I can see a villager moving their vote to ensure they survive, but I don't see them moving it someone they actively think is village, especially where there's quite some time left for them to get an actual suspicion out there. Add to that the hedging/lampshading on karnage flipping village and I'm now pretty suspicious of Sart (fura).

Yeahh, don’t love the look of this. In some cases I’d consider it NAI, but here it feels a bit more suspicious than not.

Alright. That’s all of what I wanted to note as I went through C1. I wanted to be caught up tonight, but considering it's nearly 5AM, that doesn't seem likely.

I'll be sure to do C2 before rollover, and will do my best to keep up to date after that. Playing catch-up in this game was not fun - want to avoid it going forward, if I can :P

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Well then, I guess I'm going to get started on some player analysis, starting with Arraenae, because someone had already asked me to look her over.

Arraenae

C1 Rae provided some general faction and win-con analysis, as well as an in-depth analysis of Straw after he started accruing votes. She concluded that she didn't want to lynch straw because straw was generating discussion and pushing for information. Given straws apparent alignment this could be NAI, but I saw Straw in a similar way, so I can't really fault or suspect Rae for this.

C2 is similar. She discussed the potential scenarios around Karnage's claim, which is interesting, but also fairly NAI. Her pointing out that bleeder!karnage is a reasonable situation could be constructed as trying to weaken a nearly-confirmed-villagers position though, which worries me a bit. Her conclusion isn't necessarily wrong though, but I think karnage's alignment will get resolved sooner rather than later because of the presence or lack of attacks by bleeder.

I do like her vote on Pyro though. She points out that she's planning on joining the straw wagon, but wants to try and salvage some discussion from a cycle that was likely a forgone conclusion from the moment karnage claimed.

Overall I'm leaning fairly neutral on Rae, mostly because the various alignment indicative content balances out.

Brightnessradiant

Her C1 is similar to Rae's in that there's a bunch of NAI discussion (on team-size, in BR's case), and a defense of Straw. She didn't go as in-depth on analyzing him first as Arraenae did, but once again I can't really fault her reasoning in this regard. Her vote on Karnage also doesn't really stand out much unless Sart (the one with the next highest votes) flips elim. If that happens, I'd be a lot more suspicious of BR again.

I like the connections she's making based on people jumping in to defend straw C2. Its a shame that post wasn't a bit earlier, as as it stands it's not impossible for it to be part of a grand distancing strategy, but it does make me lean more village on her. ( @Karnage, I don't know if you're taking requests, but I wouldn't mind a scan of BR).

Overall, I'm leaning mildly village, but pending more info on Sart's alignment.

Bugsy

This one's easy. He posted once saying he had an essay due, and would jump in after that. @Bugsy, how did your essay go? Is there anything you want to share regarding teh game? Bugsy ninja's me at some point during the writing off this post

Zillah

This stood out to me, not because of any AI content, but just because I think this comment by Zillah on one of Rae's posts was funny.

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At this point there were five pages of posts (which is a lot!) and I think there was more than ample evidence to make a more educated guess than "RNG", so I feel like this could be a less experienced elim using this as a way to possibly have a kind of "safe vote" for the cycle.

@Zillah, Rae has been playing SE for longer than I have (oof, that sentence made me feel old), so I don't think she'd make a 'less experienced elim' play :P 

It should be noted that Zillah expressed a defense of straw C1, but also suspicions of Striker and Fura. I've said I found a defense of straw C1 NAI a couple of times now, but if Striker and/or fura end up as evil (which could quite easily happen), then Zillah should look pretty village.

verdict: Neutral, but if either Striker or Fura flips elim, she'll look fairly village.

Xinoehp

I'm uncertain on Xino. Most of his posts are NAI, but there is one interesting one in C1 in which he joins the chorus of people defending straw. He also puts a vote on Sart there and shares some other reads. The vote on sart is interesting as Sart only had one vote at that point, so elim!xinoehp might have been better off voting Karnage to get heat off of Straw. I'd read Xinoehp slightly village for this, if he hadn't left the door open for a switch to karnage by expressing some suspicion of them as well. As it stands, I'm leaning neutral or slightly elim on Xino. @xinoehp512, excluding Straw, Pyro, Striker and furami, who would you be most suspicious off?

I'm going to cut this post off at this point, to avoid losing it. I'll try to get some more  reads in before the cycle is over though.

edit: @Bugsy, since I started the idea that Bleeder is not a friend of the elims, allow to explain it a bit more. You are correct that bleeder wants to kill villagers. However, if she kills the right ones, its game over. She's a sudden-death win-con waiting to happen, especially once flogs goes down. That makes her a liability to the elims more than an asset, especially because she could target elims as well if she kills indiscriminately rather than scanning. And if she's scanning, she's not an asset to the elims at all, only a future problem.

Edited by DeTess
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2 minutes ago, Emi said:

I also don't really know, what's going up there.

I'm being accused on false pretenses! They're believing some crazy guy who ran in here and told everyone I'm guilty. There's no evidence against me! Help save me from this rigged trial! :P

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2 minutes ago, Emi said:

I also don't really know, what's going up there.

You keep on saying that, while also using other peoples analysis (such as styker) to vote. I get it because you're newer, but just spend a little time to get caught up by reading the posts and you will be fine. Its that or your just faking it which I am a bit inclined to. 

Right now I am trying to choose between wether to scan Orlock (if he is and outed three members it would be too good) Emi or Stryker.

I am more inclined to the Stryker or Emi because like I said before they do seem a bit linked.

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5 minutes ago, Straw said:

I'm being accused on false pretenses! They're believing some crazy guy who ran in here and told everyone I'm guilty. There's no evidence against me! Help save me from this rigged trial! :P

Ech... sorry, but no. Actually I have (almoust) an evidence...

oh and my skan wouldn't be really useful

Edited by Emi
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10 minutes ago, The_Archivist said:

Could someone explain the suspicion on Fura? It looks like a lot of it happened in PMs and I didn't manage to piece it together.

He has said some (in my opinion) suspicious things, and he targeted Araris last cycle (as determined using the stalker power). Araris was targeted by the elims (or possibly, but unlikely, bleeder) to kill him, so anyone targeting araris is suspect.

Regarding suspicious actions, some of Fura's suggestions this cycle could be construed as trying to protect Straw (such as the suggestion to lynch someone else and let straw be killed by a village bartender, who we don't even know exists yet). He also did some analysis last cycle on elim team size that conveniently ignored the point at which the elims have a basic majority, instead focusing purely on when they can disperse the party. This stood out to me because I don't think Fura would have missed that if he had been doing that analysis pure, rather than trying to sell a specific agenda.

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8 minutes ago, Emi said:

oh and my skan wouldn't be really useful

How do you have a scan. The only other scan ability is Bleeder. 

Could you explain at all?

I got ninjad by Straw

Edited by Karnage
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2 minutes ago, DeTess said:

He has said some (in my opinion) suspicious things, and he targeted Araris last cycle (as determined using the stalker power). Araris was targeted by the elims (or possibly, but unlikely, bleeder) to kill him, so anyone targeting araris is suspect.

Regarding suspicious actions, some of Fura's suggestions this cycle could be construed as trying to protect Straw (such as the suggestion to lynch someone else and let straw be killed by a village bartender, who we don't even know exists yet). He also did some analysis last cycle on elim team size that conveniently ignored the point at which the elims have a basic majority, instead focusing purely on when they can disperse the party. This stood out to me because I don't think Fura would have missed that if he had been doing that analysis pure, rather than trying to sell a specific agenda.

Thank you.

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1 minute ago, Karnage said:

How do you have a scan. The only other scan ability is Bleeder. 

Could you explain at all?

I got ninjad by Straw

I meant, the scan, that you would scanned me. (this is what I understood from your post)

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3 minutes ago, Straw said:

Really? I don't believe you. What's your "evidence"?

So, I'm actually a stalker. Yes, I know, I shouldn't say it, but I just can't figure out, what else I would say. So, I stalked @Karnage, who really targeted straw. Because straw is alive, I guess, that Karnage isn't lying...

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5 minutes ago, Emi said:

I meant, the scan, that you would scanned me. (this is what I understood from your post)

1 minute ago, Emi said:

So, I'm actually a stalker. Yes, I know, I shouldn't say it, but I just can't figure out, what else I would say. So, I stalked @Karnage, who really targeted straw. Because straw is alive, I guess, that Karnage isn't lying...

First of all, it's considered bad etiquette to double post, try to edit instead.

Second of all, if you didn't originally want to roleclaim, why did you tease us so hard with your "evidence"? Especially since it was in response to a post that was written as a joke. I'm getting an elim vibe from this, it's pretty weird.

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1 minute ago, The_Archivist said:

First of all, it's considered bad etiquette to double post, try to edit instead.

Yeah, I know, but you can not edit and quote:wacko::(

Oh, sorry, I'm learning, and I'm not good at this game yet. If I'm so, bad I can stop taking place in those games, I have a feeling, like anybody would like me here

Edited by Emi
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18 minutes ago, Emi said:

Yeah, I know, but you can not edit and quote:wacko::(

You can, just quote it into the new post editor and then cut it into the 'edit post' thingy. Don't worry too much about it though, this isn't exactly easy or intuitive.

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1 hour ago, Emi said:

So, I'm actually a stalker. Yes, I know, I shouldn't say it, but I just can't figure out, what else I would say. So, I stalked @Karnage, who really targeted straw. Because straw is alive, I guess, that Karnage isn't lying...

Bleeder has a scan you know.

@Bugsy Orlok was outed as an elim, but we've done the math with the elim's vote manip, and we need you to vote on him to seal the deal. Please, act now!

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1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Bleeder has a scan you know.

@Bugsy Orlok was outed as an elim, but we've done the math with the elim's vote manip, and we need you to vote on him to seal the deal. Please, act now!

Actually, Pyro admitted to being an elim, so take what he says with a heap of salt. Also it's pretty clear that Straw is the one getting lynched.

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6 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Bleeder has a scan you know.

@Bugsy Orlok was outed as an elim, but we've done the math with the elim's vote manip, and we need you to vote on him to seal the deal. Please, act now!

I was outed? When? I thought we agreed to keep my alignment quiet, Pyro. What's the point in busing the three of you if you go and reveal my alignment?...

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Did the.... are the elims giving up? What is going on. Umm, since the elims are revealing things willy nilly i've got a question.

Even tho we cannot trust y'all completely can yall tell us how many elims there are (from the begining of the game. 

So Pyro, Orlok Straw, and one mor eperson are outed as elims. Or self outed.

Can someone point out the one other outed elim?

Also, wow this has been a productive 1 1/2 cycles. This has got to be a record right?

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2 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Did the.... are the elims giving up? What is going on. Umm, since the elims are revealing things willy nilly i've got a question.

Even tho we cannot trust y'all completely can yall tell us how many elims there are (from the begining of the game. 

So Pyro, Orlok Straw, and one mor eperson are outed as elims. Or self outed.

Can someone point out the one other outed elim?

Also, wow this has been a productive 1 1/2 cycles. This has got to be a record right?

I think Orlok is being sarcastic. :P Pyro has confessed to being an elim, so at this point they're just trolling us. Given how hard Orlok was pushing for a Straw lynch last cycle, it's extremely unlikely they belong to the same team.

Edited by xinoehp512
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1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:

I think Orlok is being sarcastic. :P Pyro has confessed to being an elim, so at this point they're just trolling us.

Or maybe you're an elim...

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4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Bleeder has a scan you know.

@Bugsy Orlok was outed as an elim, but we've done the math with the elim's vote manip, and we need you to vote on him to seal the deal. Please, act now!

Points for trying. XD

I am really interested to hear what Fura claimed, but I guess it's not fair to ask. It was something that could prove he was not an eliminator. Clearly not a bodyguard or Araris would still be with us. Maybe a stalker (in this case it's probably better you don't tell us.) Could still be an elim stalker though, so that doesn't actually clear you. I'll have to give this some more thought. 

1 hour ago, Emi said:

So, I'm actually a stalker. Yes, I know, I shouldn't say it, but I just can't figure out, what else I would say. So, I stalked @Karnage, who really targeted straw. Because straw is alive, I guess, that Karnage isn't lying...

Well, the good news is Karnage is absolutely a bigger threat to the elims than you are. :) With him not telling us whether he is scanning Brightness Radiant or Furamirionind, they don't have much choice but to kill him tonight... And for the foreseeable future until bleeder helps double tap. So you will be able to help us longer than he can. 

I recommend following Striker, Brightness, or Furamirionind. I'm not at all concerned about which you pick, so don't tell us. ;)

 

Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I was outed? When? I thought we agreed to keep my alignment quiet, Pyro. What's the point in busing the three of you if you go and reveal my alignment?...

I knew it and I called it :P

1 hour ago, Emi said:

Oh, sorry, I'm learning, and I'm not good at this game yet. If I'm so, bad I can stop taking place in those games, I have a feeling, like anybody would like me here

No worries. I've been playing a long time and I'm still quite bad. You'll get the hang of it. And if it takes you a while, I'll be struggling with you.

 

Some ninjas, but I'm afraid my phone will delete my post if I look so I'll post with possibly outdated or redundant info.

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9 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I was outed? When? I thought we agreed to keep my alignment quiet, Pyro. What's the point in busing the three of you if you go and reveal my alignment?...

Seriously though, why do you do this to yourself? We resolved not to kill you until C3-4 at the earliest, because you said to treat you like a new player, but then you go and do tons of analysis and screw us over like that. Now we can't kill you, so you're going to uncover even more of us eventually. And it's not like you don't know what you're doing; you could just choose not to take notes on EVERY post and be more casual. 

Also, I like how Karnage is like 'I want to work with the elims to kill Bleeder first' right after supposedly outing an elim? And then you go and talk about how you want to work together to make an 'unkillable scanner' that has JUST PROVEN themselves willing to reveal elims? Now you've got both us AND bleeder after you to kill you as soon as possible.

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