Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Furamirionind]

Just woke up from a much needed nap, but if tied lynches kill both people, we should tie the vote between Pyro and Straw.

Also @Orlok Tsubodai I asked for the vote count because I'm color blind. I looked back at my old posts, and still didn't see a vote count.

[Mat]

27 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I read your posts Orlok. You can tell by how I stopped spelling your name wrong.

Right, you guessed me. Good job. I'm an elim.

The post at the beginning of the game, ironically, was something I had decided upon before I joined. 

Also, I didn't lie to Wilson. I was telling the truth, as we think there's a decent chance Arais was doubletapped. When I die and flip Stalker, maybe you'll believe me.

EDIT: Flame On!

Village bartender please oblige. 

I'm signing off for the night, here is the vote count: (it isn't close)

• Fura (1): DeTess 
• Straw(13): Karnage, wilson, Emi, Pyro, Striker, Orlok, Matrim, Xino, Devotary, Reading, BR, Coda, TGK 
• Karnage(1): Straw 
• Pyro(2): Arraenae, Fura 

Anyone else wonder what to do tomorrow? (besides orchestrate a Pyro/Straw tie?)

Edited May 28, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[The_God_King]

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Just woke up from a much needed nap, but if tied lynches kill both people, we should tie the vote between Pyro and Straw.

Also @Orlok Tsubodai I asked for the vote count because I'm color blind. I looked back at my old posts, and still didn't see a vote count.

I don't trust who can manipulate votes. I think I trust my fate to lynching straw this cycle without anything fancy

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, The_God_King said:

I don't trust who can manipulate votes. I think I trust my fate to lynching straw this cycle without anything fancy

Ok yeah, that's true. 

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

I don't trust who can manipulate votes. I think I trust my fate to lynching straw this cycle without anything fancy

I said I was signing off but I checked once more. 

TGK this is very true. IMO here is the ideal end of cycle result: Straw lynched, Pyro killed by village bartender. Village bartender out there, please do kill Pyro, it'd be nice to get 2 elims out of the way in one cycle.

Good night, y'all

Edited May 28, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Orlok Tsubodai]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I said I was signing off but I checked once more. 

TGK this is very true. IMO here is the ideal end of cycle result: Straw lynched, Pyro killed by village bartender. Village bartender out there, please do kill Pyro, it'd be nice to get 2 elims out of the way in one cycle.

Good night, y'all

Can I suggest the village coinshot kills either Pyro or Fura? If the eliminators have a lurcher, it doesn't seem sensible to let them know which we're asking to be targeted.

[Experience]

Right now I have slight(ish) elim reads on pyro and maybe Arraenae? I dunno. My biggest village read is orlok(if only because of the analysis, because I feel like an elim wouldn't spend the time to do that high amount of analysis. Of course, the purpose of it could be to get people to think that, but I'm leaning village). I'm also feeling village for Reading as well, though it's pretty much purely gut based, and TGK is making me feel village as well. So, IMO Straw is about 85-90% chance elim, probably on the higher end of the percentage. seeing as Straw has at least 10 more votes then anyone else(I think), putting another vote on them seems kinda useless. I'm going to place my vote on Pyro because they are second in line for those I think are elims(straw's first).

[The_God_King]

1 minute ago, Experience said:

Right now I have slight(ish) elim reads on pyro and maybe Arraenae? I dunno. My biggest village read is orlok(if only because of the analysis, because I feel like an elim wouldn't spend the time to do that high amount of analysis. Of course, the purpose of it could be to get people to think that, but I'm leaning village). I'm also feeling village for Reading as well, though it's pretty much purely gut based, and TGK is making me feel village as well. So, IMO Straw is about 85-90% chance elim, probably on the higher end of the percentage. seeing as Straw has at least 10 more votes then anyone else(I think), putting another vote on them seems kinda useless. I'm going to place my vote on Pyro because they are second in line for those I think are elims(straw's first).

 

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I read your posts Orlok. You can tell by how I stopped spelling your name wrong.

Right, you guessed me. Good job. I'm an elim.

The post at the beginning of the game, ironically, was something I had decided upon before I joined. 

Also, I didn't lie to Wilson. I was telling the truth, as we think there's a decent chance Arais was doubletapped. When I die and flip Stalker, maybe you'll believe me.

EDIT: Flame On!

this

edit: it's okay it's a lot of posts of sift through. I've been lucky and have stayed mostly on top and I'm still lost

Edited May 28, 2020 by The_God_King

[Experience]

Just now, The_God_King said:

 

this

Ugg. That's what I get for skimming through the thread instead of reading everything. Pyro's probably going to be action killed this cycle, so no point wasting a vote I guess. Well, because I can't just retract my vote I'll move mine from Pyro to Straw. 

[Straw]

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Okay, Straw's pretty much given up on convincing people he's village and is trolling now. I had such high hopes  I really wanted to see a talkative, analytical Straw.

Who? Me trolling? Never! I am being very analytical, and I’m always open to talk!

[StrikerEZ]

...Well, I guess Karnage isn't lying. I wasn't expecting Straw to come on and troll. And apparently Pyro might actually be an elim? Maybe he's just a villager messing around? But what would be the point of that? I guess it would be a good idea to have someone kill Pyro? Though it might also be a good idea to have someone kill Fura too, what with that whole targeting Araris thing too. And if I remember correctly, it seems Pyro's the one who spread the idea that there was someone else who targeted Araris as well. If/when Pyro flips elim, we can assume that person is village, I think.

I don't think it'd be a good idea to tie the votes on Pyro and Straw. Leaves way too much room for vote manipulation. If we're wrong about one of them, then we end up lynching a villager (as the elims probably have vote manipulation and will save the one that's actually an elim). 

Wow this has been quite a crazy game already. Over 250 posts in the first day, and now this? Dang.

EDIT: apparently trolling=voting. Straw has been trolling, not voting.

Edited May 28, 2020 by StrikerEZ

[The Young Pyromancer]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Maybe he's just a villager messing around?

Or maybe I just have a boring role this game, and am trying to die to participate in the LG?

[The_God_King]

5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Or maybe I just have a boring role this game, and am trying to die to participate in the LG?

Either way a lynch is preferable to us not knowing. If you pull good and were messing around it changes some things up. If your elim it secures some current thought processes

edit: lynch or kill. A good clarification

Edited May 28, 2020 by The_God_King

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Or maybe I just have a boring role this game, and am trying to die to participate in the LG?

I mean...I know I wouldn't do that in your position if it were me. If you are an elim and this is the reason that you're doing this, that's kind of unfair for your teammates. Though maybe you already asked them and they were on board with it since you already had some suspicion anyway? I don't know. I thought I had some idea of what was going on in this game and now I'm just confused.

[Elkanah]

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Anyone who comments on this to me gets a prize

I found it! 

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Says they find Straw's activity count useful Why?

I like to be able to see it. I wish I had the time to make these myself. It's like a baby version of your posts. While it lacks all of the extra analysis, it still helps to point out who is hiding and who is overcompensating... and who is being extra attacky or defendy.

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Unhelpful playstyle. Keep eye on this

 

Wow! that was the ultimate multiquote. All it was missing was the happy little notification sound going off thirty times as you hit send. I'm disappointed I haven't been a bigger part of unmasking the elims this game, but it is pretty clear who the eliminator team is. 

Part of me really wants Orlock to be a constable. Giving up three teammates is straight savage, but is there a better way to get the village to disperse early? I don't think he is though. I also don't think Wilson is a constable as that interaction with Pyro PMing her information would be really weird. Further, if that were information from the doc, why would she post it here? I can see the thread tying Brightness Radiant to the Constables, but that's the one that caught me by surprise. If you are bad, Brightness, you had me fooled.

I need to sleep, for now I'll vote on Furamirionind. Straw is very lynched so it doesn't especially matter for whom I vote.

[Kynedath]

. . . Okay! So I don't feel burdened with a need to fully justify my reasoning here as that has been done to death already by the analysis of others, but I'll clarify where I stand. I trust Karnage, I feel like they took a risk that has been paying off thus far. They seem genuine and I can't really see reason for an elim to do what they did. Plus it has all but been confirmed with how Straw and Pyro have been responding. I'm down to vote on Straw based on Karnages claim. And if Pyro isn't dead by cycle three then I plan on voting for them.

I am getting bad gut vibes from DeTess. I noted my suspicion of them last cycle and that hasn't gone away, they've been a slight elim read since then. Plus this cycle I don't know how much I trust their claim that Fura targeted Araris. They could very easily just have said that to cast suspicion their way while still retaining plausible deniability. And when I think of DeTesses posts I think of more than like two lines sheepishly asking Fura to respond to an accusation that someone else made. That doesn't seem like their normal playstyle.

I moderately suspect Striker, I can see them being an elim from everyone elses posts, but I'm not totally convinced yet. It feels like they are genuinely trying to figure out the best way to handle things and just didn't grasp the entirety of the situation with Karnage. Logically it's suspicious, but my gut is trying to tell me they're village. Maybe that's just a bias though, I tend to give Striker the benefit of the doubt for some reason.

I trust Karnage for reasons I stated above.

I trust Orlok, I don't think that an elim would put that much time and effort into those posts when they could be scheming and planning and conspiring in their doc. Plus their analysis seems really spot on even if we disagree on the infolynching issue. They have been one of the main contributors to the current lynch and they are condemning Pyro hard which - considering Pyros confession to being an elim - I think mostly clears Orlok.

I trust Wilson, their reaction to Pyro and Striker have me trusting them, I don't think that they would argue against their teammates that vehemently.

So yeah, those are my thoughts. I'll keep trying to post as much as I could, but I think that I'll only be able to commit to two more posts tomorrow. I might be able to keep up a little bit tonight, but eventually I'll have to go to sleep.

[StrikerEZ]

5 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

I am getting bad gut vibes from DeTess. I noted my suspicion of them last cycle and that hasn't gone away, they've been a slight elim read since then. Plus this cycle I don't know how much I trust their claim that Fura targeted Araris. They could very easily just have said that to cast suspicion their way while still retaining plausible deniability. And when I think of DeTesses posts I think of more than like two lines sheepishly asking Fura to respond to an accusation that someone else made. That doesn't seem like their normal playstyle.

Is it not revealing that Fura still hasn't really responded to the claims from DeTess yet? It's honestly surprising me that he hasn't really shown up to defend himself at all. Or if he has, he didn't really address the claim so I forgot he posted. Whether or not DeTess is the one who actually scanned Fura, I think it's worthwhile to either look into him or suggest that someone kill him. At least for now, until we receive a response from @Furamirionind.

13 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

I moderately suspect Striker, I can see them being an elim from everyone elses posts, but I'm not totally convinced yet. It feels like they are genuinely trying to figure out the best way to handle things and just didn't grasp the entirety of the situation with Karnage. Logically it's suspicious, but my gut is trying to tell me they're village. Maybe that's just a bias though, I tend to give Striker the benefit of the doubt for some reason.

First of all, I'm confused on how I can be an elim based on everyone else's posts? Like...do they get to decide if I'm an elim or something? Or am I completely misreading this?

Secondly, thank you for the gut village read. I greatly appreciate it. I think you're the first person who has that type of reaction to me normally.

18 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

I trust Wilson, their reaction to Pyro and Striker have me trusting them, I don't think that they would argue against their teammates that vehemently.

To be fair, I don't think that wilson was really arguing vehemently against us. At least, it didn't really feel that way from my end. @little wilson thoughts?

I also don't think it would be beyond her to argue against her teammates the way she argued against me and Pyro. Wilson's experienced enough (even if she hasn't played a lot lately) to know how to distance from herself from her teammates pretty well.

All that being said, I really don't suspect wilson at all right now. I don't have many suspicions besides the obvious ones (Straw, Pyro, Fura), but I think I'm going to go through everything that's happened this cycle over the course of tomorrow and try and get some solid reads on other players. Even if all three of those players are elims, there's still anywhere from 4-6 other players besides them on the team. We can't go lax just because we might've hit a jackpot of elims C2. Anyway, I'll probably still be reading the thread for another hour or so, but that's just so I don't get too behind before I wake up tomorrow. If anyone really needs me, tag me.

[little wilson]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

To be fair, I don't think that wilson was really arguing vehemently against us. At least, it didn't really feel that way from my end. @little wilson thoughts?

I also don't think it would be beyond her to argue against her teammates the way she argued against me and Pyro. Wilson's experienced enough (even if she hasn't played a lot lately) to know how to distance from herself from her teammates pretty well.

i mean i did think it was a pretty horrible idea and was rather vehemently against it soooooo id say yes? theres a reason i was so quick to be like "this is a terrible terrible idea oh my goodness" the second i saw your vote. dear goodness that was bad idea. i cant emphasize that enough.

howeeeevvver you probs right id do something similar if i were evil. at least in terms of some of those reactions but hard to say since im not evil so all i know is that that was my genuine reaction so there you go?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

32 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

I am getting bad gut vibes from DeTess. I noted my suspicion of them last cycle and that hasn't gone away, they've been a slight elim read since then. Plus this cycle I don't know how much I trust their claim that Fura targeted Araris. They could very easily just have said that to cast suspicion their way while still retaining plausible deniability. And when I think of DeTesses posts I think of more than like two lines sheepishly asking Fura to respond to an accusation that someone else made. That doesn't seem like their normal playstyle.

DeTess's wording did leave Fura open to make any number of false role claims that would need a scan or kill to resolve. I could see elim!DeTess trying to give Fura an easy way out, but it's unclear how much actual information could have been gotten from Fura with one PM per cycle. Especially if Fura did submit the kill, there should be an alibi established to justify targeting Araris if someone started inquiring about C1 actions. Pyro pretty much claimed that Fura did kill Araris, further implying that Elkanah was Bleeder. Both Pyro and Fura were already going to be killed, so I'm not sure this claim is particularly relevant.

8 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Is it not revealing that Fura still hasn't really responded to the claims from DeTess yet? It's honestly surprising me that he hasn't really shown up to defend himself at all. Or if he has, he didn't really address the claim so I forgot he posted.

Fura did 'respond', saying "Or if I will respond at all  ". I guess the plan is just to have no alibi at all.

[The Young Pyromancer]

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Pyro pretty much claimed that Fura did kill Araris

SUUUURE. I totally did that. Because if they were my teammate I would totally out them. For NOOOOO reason. LOL

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Is it not revealing that Fura still hasn't really responded to the claims from DeTess yet? It's honestly surprising me that he hasn't really shown up to defend himself at all. Or if he has, he didn't really address the claim so I forgot he posted. Whether or not DeTess is the one who actually scanned Fura, I think it's worthwhile to either look into him or suggest that someone kill him. At least for now, until we receive a response from @Furamirionind.

1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

I've PMed DeTess. That's what you're getting out of me. : P
DeTess has yet to get online, probably because they're sleeping.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Fura did 'respond', saying "Or if I will respond at all  ". I guess the plan is just to have no alibi at all

 

[Coffeecat]

21 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

“Then we must flee!” Lord Karn stepped forward as well, raising his cane. “We cannot fight a Faceless Immortal, we must leave while we still live!” The crowds voice increased as many people began to shove their way to the main entryway of the grand ballroom. They were cut off by the large Sooner Flogs jumping over their heads, and landing at the doors holding Nahr’s corpse.

“No one’s going no where.” He held up the corpse by the neck, letting blood drip to the floor. “I recognize this man. ‘E was a constable. We don’t know how many more might be in here. We’re not leaving until I’m sure there’s none left.” The crowd broke out into yelling, some at Flogs, others at each other.

Hehe, how did no one notice Lord Karn was doing two things at a time??

This is not role indicative, i just thought it was funny that in the writeup Karn was basically speaking to themselves.(if they are flogs)

 

Dont Mind me, i dont have time to actually read all these messages

[Arrae]

5 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Hehe, how did no one notice Lord Karn was doing two things at a time??

This is not role indicative, i just thought it was funny that in the writeup Karn was basically speaking to themselves.(if they are flogs)

 

Dont Mind me, i dont have time to actually read all these messages

Venquillotrists are a thing

[Coffeecat]

Yeah, i mean, going from being a scared Lord to being a muscular Flogs in one second...

hm, do we know if flogs is not a cadmium allomancer? + pewter feruchemist now that i think of it.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben

[DeTess]

Regarding Furami, they've send me a roleclaim, as expected. If there where more PM's I could have tried to get one before revealing the scan, but that'd take about 3 cycles in the game as it currently stands. Luckily roleclaims can be checked. Either Fura is telling the truth, or he's an elim. I think that, if Fura is an elim, then he's one without an active role (otherwise he wouldn't be submitting the kill), so even if another elim had the role he claimed (which is likely) a stalker would still be able to confirm Fura's targeting. Therefore, I'd prefer it if another Stalker could follow Fura around this cycle. 

Regarding this bit, the claim about Elkanah is interesting as well, though, as little wilson noted, its timing is suspect. Still, if Furami proves to be good, Elkanah almost certainly isn't (and vice-versa). In fact, for that alone, lynching or killing furami would be worth it, as we're likely to get an elim either way.

Now, a couple more thoughts. A couple of people, including furami, suggested letting a bartender take care of Straw. I think that's a bad idea and a suspicious suggestion. We need straw down to confirm Karnage's claim, and a lynch is far harder to stop than a kill. A bodyguard among the elims could keep straw safe from the bartender though.

@Orlok Tsubodai, I'm not actively suspicious of Wilson, I just don't have any reason to trust her yet (so I guess I'm passively suspicious?).

@Kynedath, I'll get some actual analysis out soonish, but the combination of RL business and this game being ridiculously active has kept the amount of actual in-depth analysis I can do down. I think we've played enough games together that you should know by now that a change in playstyle like this is NAI for me, as I'm just as analytical as an elim if I have the time to do that. Also, could you answer those questions I asked you about your initial suspicion last cycle? I find it somewhat telling that you didn't respond to that yet.

(straw, fura)