Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Karnage]

30 minutes ago, Straw said:

No, you can't screenshot PMs. Read the SE rules.

Yah, I guess that makes sense. It would break the game otherwise.

15 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

1.  Why would Flogs be a Gambling Tycoon? That makes no sense to me whatsoever, as Flogs is already immune to lynches.
2.  I got ninja'd by Straw and therefore read his post. That makes me unsure for voting on him.
3.  Even though you said it yourself, roleclaiming like that is ridiculously risky. Too risky. I could see this being orchestrated in an elim doc.

But then there is the other side of this. I was already quietly suspicious of Striker for seemingly controlling Emi's vote on Karnage last cycle. Now Striker wants to lynch Flogs after he roleclaimed. However, if I assume a Striker/Emi elim team then why would Emi vote Straw instead of Karnage?

Someone is lying here, Karnage or Straw. I don't want to pick a side yet. No vote at the moment.

1. I am not sure why I got Gambling Tycoon. @A Joe in the Bush were extra roles randomized?

2.Yeah, the only logical thing for Straw to do is to claim to not be a constable, I was expecting this.

3. I agree it was risky, I was thinking that maybe we could get elims and village working together to stop bleeder from winning, and second make an unkillable role scanner. But the pm idea not that I look back at it, is a really bad idea. Someone could claim to be a bodyguard and then not guard me. Mmm any ideas to make this idea better?

I was just thinking about ways that we can get around only being able to protect someone once every two turns. I was thinking that we could orchestrate it, but I guess that would not work. @little wilson and other more experienced players, would there be a way to make this work?

Like I said before, even if I was lying this could only be a good thing for village. 1. Distraction for Bleeder 2. Once we lynch Straw we will have already caught 1 elim. 

Not sure what all this extortion convo is about I will have to re-read the rules about it so I can understand what y'all are talking about.

[StrikerEZ]

Just now, little wilson said:

you should never make strategies like this betting on role distribution when you got a GM whosa a trollllolllolllooolllll. you assume we got more than one bodyguard and that just aint a good assumption since i can totes see joe only putting one in to prevent this exact scenario - where flogs public claims and hes kept alive and be bleeder be screwed.

and even if we have multiple bodyguards what is one is inactive? or what if they decide to protect someone else because they assume someone else protects flogs because why wouldnt everyone protect flogs.

this is such a baaaaaaadddddd plan me cant even

I guess I should keep in mind the fact that Joe is a troll. I probably should know better based on how I like to mess with role distribution myself. This game is so big though, that it just seems odd to me to only have one village bodyguard to protect against both the elim kill and Bleeder's kill. I'm not willing to bank on the assumption that there are two. But I would still like to know if Karnage is actually Flogs or not. We're already at the point where we're in a sticky situation with Flogs. Either he really did just out himself to the whole thread and we already have to worry about how to keep him alive, or we can lynch him to figure out if we really need to do this, and if he was lying, we catch an elim (or possibly Bleeder, but I don't think Karnage is Bleeder) and we get to spare Straw's life. At least for now. I don't think elim!Straw would've recommended that elim!Karnage do this, but I could see Karnage coming up with the idea on his own and doing it to buy himself villager brownie points.

[A Joe in the Bush]

1 minute ago, Karnage said:

1. I am not sure why I got Gambling Tycoon. @A Joe in the Bush were extra roles randomized?

This is not something i can answer.

 

10 minutes ago, little wilson said:

when you got a GM whosa a trollllolllolllooolllll.

elbereth! wilson is being mean to me!

[little wilson]

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I guess I should keep in mind the fact that Joe is a troll. I probably should know better based on how I like to mess with role distribution myself. This game is so big though, that it just seems odd to me to only have one village bodyguard to protect against both the elim kill and Bleeder's kill. I'm not willing to bank on the assumption that there are two. But I would still like to know if Karnage is actually Flogs or not. We're already at the point where we're in a sticky situation with Flogs. Either he really did just out himself to the whole thread and we already have to worry about how to keep him alive, or we can lynch him to figure out if we really need to do this, and if he was lying, we catch an elim (or possibly Bleeder, but I don't think Karnage is Bleeder) and we get to spare Straw's life. At least for now. I don't think elim!Straw would've recommended that elim!Karnage do this, but I could see Karnage coming up with the idea on his own and doing it to buy himself villager brownie points.

me not saying we trust karnage completely. on the contrary me fully expected karnage to die in the next two cycles and if hes not even attacked then me would advocate lynching him again to see if hes bleeder herself or an elim who bleeder hasnt attacked yet or if bleeder is trollolling us to get us to lynch him and solve the mystery for her without her having to use an action that isnt a kill. me could see any of these possibilities. but the one we shouldnt do imo is lynch karnage now. thats the worst idea of all the ideas me can think of.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

I'm going to pretend that Karnage didn't just do that. Yeah.

The village's main objective is to kill all the Constables. All Bleeder needs to do is kill Winsting, who doesn't exist until Flogs dies. The ones really in a mess here are the Elims, because their objective is the slowest burning. They have to disperse the party, which can be achieved through a perfect storm of inactivity, Escorts, and death. Flogs doesn't really need to tie into that.

The real question is if the Gambling Tycoon ability was burned off by the lynch last cycle or if Flogs' ability superseded it. If it wasn't, then Karnage is still immune to kills this cycle. If not, then he's toast. @A Joe in the Bush in a purely hypothetical situation, if the player with the Flogs role happened to also have the Gambling Tycoon role, and was lynched, would the lynch count for that "first time you would die"?

[StrikerEZ]

Just now, little wilson said:

me not saying we trust karnage completely. on the contrary me fully expected karnage to die in the next two cycles and if hes not even attacked then me would advocate lynching him again to see if hes bleeder herself or an elim who bleeder hasnt attacked yet or if bleeder is trollolling us to get us to lynch him and solve the mystery for her without her having to use an action that isnt a kill. me could see any of these possibilities. but the one we shouldnt do imo is lynch karnage now. thats the worst idea of all the ideas me can think of.

Hmm...that does make sense. @A Joe in the Bush 2 questions. Is the thread notified if someone is attacked but survives? When a scanner is extorted, do they receive the results for the alignment of whoever they scanned but are told the name of the original person they tried to scan?

For now, I think it might be best if we lynch Straw instead of Karnage. If Karnage is lying, then we know to lynch him next cycle when Straw flips village. If he isn't lying, then we get an elim and actually have to worry about protecting Karnage.

I don't want this to stifle discussion though. @Furamirionind I'm still curious why about why you targeted Araris last cycle.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

If Straw is evil, as I believe him to be, I'm pretty convinced that BR and Shard are evil. Pyro I am absolutely convinced is evil either way. Another long post being worked on, will follow at some point in the next four hours.

[Mat]

So I had this big proposition but it looks like everyone is voting Straw already.

Basically it was, let's lynch Straw this cycle. If Karnage is Flogs and is telling the truth, then we found an elim. Yay.

It Karnage isn't Flogs, then oof, sorry Straw. But then we can all lynch Karnage anyway for C3.

The more I think about it the more I realize how stupid it would be to imitate Flogs. That is basically asking for Bleeder to kill you and everyone to be suspicious. So yeah, I trust Karnage at the moment.

[little wilson]

to go along with other discussion, someone sent me a pm after tess made the post about fura. hours after. this pm says that elk also targeted araris.

me personally thinks this is a lie - me thinks the person who pmed me is an elim who came up with this idea in the doc to muddy the waters around fura and gave it to me for....unknown reasons.

me mean, me have guesses why me was chosen but they be just guesses and who would ever take me as some authority figure when me uses me instead of the correct pronoun (that mine phone will undoubtedly autocorrect to the capital hence why its a fiendish letter right now to be avoided at all cost when it is by itself)

anyway. back to me point. me thinks me am being played. or at least someone is trying to play me.

can you play a person when theyre not even taking things seriously?????!!??? hmmmmmm

[The_Archivist]

Even if Straw is found to be an elim, it could still be a bussing. Is that likely? I'm not familiar with the meta.

[A Joe in the Bush]

21 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

@A Joe in the Bushin a purely hypothetical situation, if the player with the Flogs role happened to also have the Gambling Tycoon role, and was lynched, would the lynch count for that "first time you would die"?

Flogs supersedes it, so this hypothetical player would keep their Extra life.

17 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Hmm...that does make sense. @A Joe in the Bush 2 questions. Is the thread notified if someone is attacked but survives? When a scanner is extorted, do they receive the results for the alignment of whoever they scanned but are told the name of the original person they tried to scan?

Yes, i will inform the thread of people's survival. Players who are extorted are told who they targeted.

[StrikerEZ]

Just now, The_Archivist said:

Even if Straw is found to be an elim, it could still be a bussing. Is that likely? I'm not familiar with the meta.

It depends on the elim team. Sart did that in the most recent QF, but I can't remember the last time it happened before that. I'm talking about early game bussing at least. Bussing is a relatively common tactic in the later game when a teammate is up for the lynch and an elim doesn't want to draw suspicion to themselves. I don't think it's super likely that Karnage is an elim bussing his fellow teammate Straw. It's something I could maybe possibly see Straw recommending if he was an elim based on all the suspicion that's been thrown at him already, but I don't know for sure if he'd do it.

[xinoehp512]

1 hour ago, Karnage said:

Okay I am taking a HUGE risk.

I am Flogs

I am also a Gambling Tycoon

I was trying to decide whether it was a risk I should take but seeing as the conversation is already steering towards the idea that I am Flogs, I figured that Bleeder would be onto me soon anyways. 

Few things I was thinking

-There are probable 2 Bodyguards in the Village and maybe one in the elim faction.

- Elim faction wants to keep me alive so that Bleeder doesn't beet them

-If protection is coordinated the each turn I can be protected from Bleeder and the village is that much more closer to winning (same with the elim faction

-If the Bodyguards each send me a PM offering their protection (I promise not to reveal your role to the thread unless I get permission) then I can respond each hour to one (that one would then protect me) while the others protect others on that turn. Each turn I will respond to each one and hopefully forever stay safe from the likes of Bleeder.

- Not only does this help the village but it also helps the elims (except for the fact that I can scan people)

Speaking of Scanning-

I decided to scan straw because they are very hard to read, because they are so integral to the discussion in every game that I have been in with them. I scanned them and Joe replied with saying that they are Constable. Straw

Are we allowed to screen shot pm's? I will wait for a response before I post again.

Hopefully this stirs the pot for the better for the village. If you are a bodyguard and you want either the village or elim team to win I suggest you pm me. 

-Karnage

 

 

An interesting claim, to be sure. Generally speaking, claims like this wind up being true- lying will 100% out you, and it's quite village to spill critical information if you're scared of losing your life. So, Straw. There's too much confusion going around- we need facts.

I don't think Karnage is a constable. I can see them being either Bleeder or Flogs- either way, Straw is most likely elim.

 

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:

An interesting claim, to be sure. Generally speaking, claims like this wind up being true- lying will 100% out you, and it's quite village to spill critical information if you're scared of losing your life. So, Straw. There's too much confusion going around- we need facts.

To be fair, I could see someone like Aman pulling something off like this as an elim and talking himself out of dying for the next 3 cycles. Granted, he doesn't normally pull stunts like this except when he feels he absolutely needs to. I'm not saying Karnage is absolutely pulling a stunt, just saying that he might be and we have to keep that in mind. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Once they died, Winstig would be in play, and you'd just have to pray for their death. After all, Bleeder doesn't have to be alive to win.

Bleeder specifically does have to be alive to win. I'm not currently seeing it in the rules, but I asked Joe this when the rules for this game went up for approval.

2 minutes ago, The_Archivist said:

Even if Straw is found to be an elim, it could still be a bussing. Is that likely? I'm not familiar with the meta.

It's possible for Karnage to be bussing elim teammate Straw, but that's a level of ruthlessness that not very many elim teams would be willing to go through with. Also, bussing tends to be done by people who aren't already marked for death. Since Karnage probably won't live very long unless there are lots of bodyguards out there, it's wasteful to sacrifice Straw for a brief extension of life. If Karnage was Bleeder who used an alignment scan on Straw, then there wouldn't be any kill attempts, but a simple renowned scan would be able to tell that Karnage was lying.

So we have lynching Straw today as village!Karnage wouldn't make a wild accusation and evil!Karnage would make sure to give a verifiable claim. If Karnage survives, it's probably worth a role scan. Fura and Elkanah apparently targeted Araris, and it's worth looking into that with scan/kill actions or tomorrow's lynch.

[Mat]

16 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

To be fair, I could see someone like Aman pulling something off like this as an elim and talking himself out of dying for the next 3 cycles. Granted, he doesn't normally pull stunts like this except when he feels he absolutely needs to. I'm not saying Karnage is absolutely pulling a stunt, just saying that he might be and we have to keep that in mind. 

If he is pulling a stunt we'll just lynch him C3 after Straw would be revealed as village. Assuming this I doubt Karnage would've been ignorant to that possibility when he roleclaimed.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Karnage]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

If he is pulling a stunt we'll just lynch him C3 after Straw would be revealed as village. Assuming this I doubt Karnage would've been ignorant to that possibility when he roleclaimed.

Exactly.

I will be back in approximatly 4-5 hours. Y'all don't get into too much trouble.

A question for y'all when I am gone.

As of right now Straw is pretty much lynched, therefore I am thinking that elims are jumping on the train to not look suspicious. Does this seem plausible or do y'all thinking that they are the ones that haven't posted yet, or maybe a mix?

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Karnage said:

As of right now Straw is pretty much lynched, therefore I am thinking that elims are jumping on the train to not look suspicious. Does this seem plausible or do y'all thinking that they are the ones that haven't posted yet, or maybe a mix?

As I've mentioned before Pyro and Striker are on my/others suspect list. So the answer to your question is yes, whether it be those two or not.

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, Karnage said:

Exactly.

I will be back in approximatly 4-5 hours. Y'all don't get into too much trouble.

A question for y'all when I am gone.

As of right now Straw is pretty much lynched, therefore I am thinking that elims are jumping on the train to not look suspicious. Does this seem plausible or do y'all thinking that they are the ones that haven't posted yet, or maybe a mix?

There are almost certainly elims on Straw's lynch, regardless of his actual alignment. 

[Arrae]

Okay. Let's look through all the possible scenarios for Karnage and Straw’s alignment.
 

1. Karnage is Flogs, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they are Flogs. Once they get verification of that, Bleeder will attempt to kill Karnage. To win, Bleeder only needs to kill two people, Flogs and Winsting, which means that Bleeder can afford to spam kills against Flogs until one breaks through. I don't think that Karnage will be able to successfully coordinate bodyguard protects long enough to stay alive the whole game. 

For one thing, Karnage assumes that there are at least two bodyguards in the game. This is a Joe game. Nothing is guaranteed. Secondly, Karnage assumes that at least two bodyguards will be willing to protect him. If, like he assumes, there is one Constable bodyguard and one Criminal bodyguard, I'm not sure that the Constable bodyguard would bother. In this scenario, Karnage just outed Straw. That probably burned through any goodwill the Constables might have towards them. The Constables have every reason to expect that Karnage will continue trying to lynch them. 

What's more, even assuming that there are at least two bodyguards in the game, and assuming that they are willing to protect Karnage, I don't see this arrangement working out for long. What if the bodyguards don't want to use their 1 PM solely to check in on Karnage? What if a bodyguard finds some other villager who they also think is likely to die? What if a bodyguard goes inactive and forgets to submit a protective order? For all of those reasons, I assume that Karnage is not going to live very long. Bleeder has every incentive to keep attacking them until they are dead.

If we assume that Karnage is Flogs, I don't think it's worth lynching them to verify, because of this likely death. We will know their alignment once Bleeder kills them. I expect it’ll take three cycles, max. If they’re miraculously still alive by then, we can re-evaluate the situation.
 

2. Karnage is a Criminal, and Straw is a Constable.

In this case Karnage would’ve guessed and is trying to play Flogs to absorb a Bleeder kill. Very unlikely.
 

3. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Criminal.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die. (The only way for the Constable team to fake a result like this would be for them to spend multiple night kills on Karnage, while also protecting them, which means they spend a lot of resources to gain very little.)

There are several ways to see this scenario is likely. If Bleeder does not attack Karnage, then we lynch Karnage. if Straw’s alignment is found to be village, either through an alignment scan or lynch, then we lynch Karnage. If Bleeder attacks Karnage and Karnage dies, then obviously we will know Karnage’s alignment. We can do all of that without having to lynch Karnage this cycle.

If this scenario turns out to be true, we probably can learn things about the Constable team. There are certain players who I cannot see agreeing to this plan, which means that we can rule them out if they have similar times of online activity as Karnage.
 

4. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die.

In this case, the Constable team would basically be trading Straw’s life for Karnage. I'm not sure why they would do that, because we can still use the methods outlined in scenario 3 to get an idea of Karnage's alignment, and then the Constable team would have basically traded in two lives for nothing. I really don't think this is likely.
 

5. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder is automatically protected against kills as if they had a bodyguard. It's possible this means that Karnage would be able to attack themselves and survive, and get a writeup saying that they were attacked and survived. I could even see Joe giving the single serial killer role an extra life just to make sure that they don't die early in a scenario like what just happened here. Again, this is a Joe game, so role distributions are likely to be trolly, but it's not impossible.

This scenario is actually the hardest to disprove. If we lynch Straw, and find that he is a Constable, that would mean this is scenario 1 or 5. One way to disprove a situation like this would be if we found every single bodyguard in the game, and they said that none of them were protecting Karnage on a cycle that they were attacked. This would be really hard to do, for obvious reasons. Another way would be for Flogs to counterclaim, but in that case Karnage would kill the counterclaimer and be halfway to completing their wincon. We’d probably lynch Karnage the next turn, but that’s closer than I’d like for things to get.

Out of all the scenarios that have been outlined, this is the only one that can't be immediately disproven or doesn't have negative effects for Karnage. If we assume that Karnage is a rational actor, then this becomes much more likely.
 

6. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Criminal.

If Straw flips Criminal when Karnage claimed that he's a Constable, then the next obvious lynch target is Karnage. This scenario is really, really unlikely. 
 

7. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is Flogs.

Well, why try to get Straw lynched then if Straw is immune to the lynch? Near impossible.

[Mat]

Spoiler

5 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Okay. Let's look through all the possible scenarios for Karnage and Straw’s alignment.
 

1. Karnage is Flogs, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they are Flogs. Once they get verification of that, Bleeder will attempt to kill Karnage. To win, Bleeder only needs to kill two people, Flogs and Winsting, which means that Bleeder can afford to spam kills against Flogs until one breaks through. I don't think that Karnage will be able to successfully coordinate bodyguard protects long enough to stay alive the whole game. 

For one thing, Karnage assumes that there are at least two bodyguards in the game. This is a Joe game. Nothing is guaranteed. Secondly, Karnage assumes that at least two bodyguards will be willing to protect him. If, like he assumes, there is one Constable bodyguard and one Criminal bodyguard, I'm not sure that the Constable bodyguard would bother. In this scenario, Karnage just outed Straw. That probably burned through any goodwill the Constables might have towards them. The Constables have every reason to expect that Karnage will continue trying to lynch them. 

What's more, even assuming that there are at least two bodyguards in the game, and assuming that they are willing to protect Karnage, I don't see this arrangement working out for long. What if the bodyguards don't want to use their 1 PM solely to check in on Karnage? What if a bodyguard finds some other villager who they also think is likely to die? What if a bodyguard goes inactive and forgets to submit a protective order? For all of those reasons, I assume that Karnage is not going to live very long. Bleeder has every incentive to keep attacking them until they are dead.

If we assume that Karnage is Flogs, I don't think it's worth lynching them to verify, because of this likely death. We will know their alignment once Bleeder kills them. I expect it’ll take three cycles, max. If they’re miraculously still alive by then, we can re-evaluate the situation.
 

2. Karnage is a Criminal, and Straw is a Constable.

In this case Karnage would’ve guessed and is trying to play Flogs to absorb a Bleeder kill. Very unlikely.
 

3. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Criminal.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die. (The only way for the Constable team to fake a result like this would be for them to spend multiple night kills on Karnage, while also protecting them, which means they spend a lot of resources to gain very little.)

There are several ways to see this scenario is likely. If Bleeder does not attack Karnage, then we lynch Karnage. if Straw’s alignment is found to be village, either through an alignment scan or lynch, then we lynch Karnage. If Bleeder attacks Karnage and Karnage dies, then obviously we will know Karnage’s alignment. We can do all of that without having to lynch Karnage this cycle.

If this scenario turns out to be true, we probably can learn things about the Constable team. There are certain players who I cannot see agreeing to this plan, which means that we can rule them out if they have similar times of online activity as Karnage.
 

4. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die.

In this case, the Constable team would basically be trading Straw’s life for Karnage. I'm not sure why they would do that, because we can still use the methods outlined in scenario 3 to get an idea of Karnage's alignment, and then the Constable team would have basically traded in two lives for nothing. I really don't think this is likely.
 

5. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Constable.

Bleeder is automatically protected against kills as if they had a bodyguard. It's possible this means that Karnage would be able to attack themselves and survive, and get a writeup saying that they were attacked and survived. I could even see Joe giving the single serial killer role an extra life just to make sure that they don't die early in a scenario like what just happened here. Again, this is a Joe game, so role distributions are likely to be trolly, but it's not impossible.

This scenario is actually the hardest to disprove. If we lynch Straw, and find that he is a Constable, that would mean this is scenario 1 or 5. One way to disprove a situation like this would be if we found every single bodyguard in the game, and they said that none of them were protecting Karnage on a cycle that they were attacked. This would be really hard to do, for obvious reasons. Another way would be for Flogs to counterclaim, but in that case Karnage would kill the counterclaimer and be halfway to completing their wincon. We’d probably lynch Karnage the next turn, but that’s closer than I’d like for things to get.

Out of all the scenarios that have been outlined, this is the only one that can't be immediately disproven or doesn't have negative effects for Karnage. If we assume that Karnage is a rational actor, then this becomes much more likely.
 

6. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Criminal.

If Straw flips Criminal when Karnage claimed that he's a Constable, then the next obvious lynch target is Karnage. This scenario is really, really unlikely. 
 

7. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is Flogs.

Well, why try to get Straw lynched then if Straw is immune to the lynch? Near impossible.

 

...So are you leaving your vote on Pyro?

[Arrae]

Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

...So are you leaving your vote on Pyro?

We have hours and hours left. Honestly, that post was more arguing that there's no need to vote on Karnage today than it is arguing that we should vote on Straw. 

[Shard of Reading]

I see almost no scenario in which Straw is not an elim becuase of the the different scenarios and how they would play out.

Straw is a constable and Karnage is the flog

While I do not think that this is necessarily the smartest thing to do I think that it is a good way to get protection and remove an elim at the same time. Most likely

Straw is a constable and Karnage is Bleeder

If he does this than Karnage gets free protection and he gets free protection while giving himself free range to look search for the actual flog because the whole thread would trust him at this point. Less likely

Straw is a villager and Karnage is a constable

Almost impossible. Karnage would remove an adversary and while he would likely killed next turn he leaves the suspicion off the other elims.

Straw is Bleeder and Karnage is a constable

Almost impossible becuase of how unlikely it would be for Karnage to make this claim blind

Straw is Flog and Karnage is Bleeder

Almost impossible. I will just leave it at that. Because the chances of finding the flog on the first turn.

Those are the most likely senarios. The others are even more impossible so going off simple statistics you would probably find that straw is the constable (Becuase I find the first situation most likely) And so because of that we need to lynch him because this is the most likely scenario. 

I know I did not have a very inspired choice of words, but I think that my point remains the same.

 

[Furamirionind]

5 hours ago, Straw said:

While this does seem close, I think that Karnage could have reasonably seen that the vote was trending towards him at that point. I think that if he were to claim, then would be one of the more reasonable times to do so. I maintain that he probably should have claimed. His explanation seems somewhat acceptable though. I'm rather curious as to how Furamirionind will respond to DeTess. I assume DeTess is telling the truth, since I don't see much reason for them to lie about it.

Or if I will respond at all  

4 hours ago, Karnage said:

Okay I am taking a HUGE risk.

I am Flogs

I am also a Gambling Tycoon

I was trying to decide whether it was a risk I should take but seeing as the conversation is already steering towards the idea that I am Flogs, I figured that Bleeder would be onto me soon anyways. 

Few things I was thinking

-There are probable 2 Bodyguards in the Village and maybe one in the elim faction.

- Elim faction wants to keep me alive so that Bleeder doesn't beet them

-If protection is coordinated the each turn I can be protected from Bleeder and the village is that much more closer to winning (same with the elim faction

-If the Bodyguards each send me a PM offering their protection (I promise not to reveal your role to the thread unless I get permission) then I can respond each hour to one (that one would then protect me) while the others protect others on that turn. Each turn I will respond to each one and hopefully forever stay safe from the likes of Bleeder.

- Not only does this help the village but it also helps the elims (except for the fact that I can scan people)

Speaking of Scanning-

I decided to scan straw because they are very hard to read, because they are so integral to the discussion in every game that I have been in with them. I scanned them and Joe replied with saying that they are Constable. Straw

Are we allowed to screen shot pm's? I will wait for a response before I post again.

Hopefully this stirs the pot for the better for the village. If you are a bodyguard and you want either the village or elim team to win I suggest you pm me. 

-Karnage

Ok then xD

I think that's a lot of protections flying around. If there is a high elim count, they probably don't have a bodyguard, and the village might have 1/2. If there is a low elim count, they probably have 1 (or even 2) bodyguards, and the village will probably have one. This all being said, there could be none in the entire game, or lots with lots of bartenders. Joe is a troll so who knows.Hmm, for some reason I thought bleeder attacks couldn't be blocked at all, but apparently that's only on Lord Winsting.

3 hours ago, Straw said:

No, you can't screenshot PMs. Read the SE rules.

First of all, I'm not a Constable, so I know you're lying. That means you're doing a gambit. You could also be extorted, and incorrect by accident.

I see a few possibilities:

1. You are Flogs, and were extorted. In this case, we should attempt to keep you alive. However, I'm curious as to why you didn't try to reveal your findings through someone else, rather than claiming to the thread? You're currently not too much danger of being lynched, what with DeTess stalking Fura, and I think people would be fairly willing to jump on a train on me if someone said that Flogs had scanned me. I also don't see why you'd claim so early in the cycle. It makes little logical sense, as you'd probably want to take more time to evaluate the situation and your options if you were actually Flogs.
2. You are a villager attempting a gambit. I could completely believe that a new player would try something like this. However, it doesn't seem that well thought out. I could see you basically just using it as a super-vote on me, and praying that I'm an elim. I could also see you doing it to try to draw Bleeder's attention, allowing the real Flogs to stay alive for longer. In this case, I'm not sure why you'd claim I'm an elim, instead of claiming I'm a villager. The final thing I could see for this option, and the most unlikely in my opinion, is you trying to get actual elims to contact you, so you can out them to the thread and admit that you didn't actually scan me. Sorry for wrecking this if it is what you're trying, but I have to defend myself.
3. You are an eliminator attempting to escape the lynch. Doing this would probably be a decent decision for the elim team. You can get an easy mislynch on me, and then try to defend yourself by saying you were extorted. As an added bonus, you can out all the bodyguards that contact you to the elim team, allowing the elim team to wipe them out. Sure, it'd most likely end in a lynch on you, but it'd be good for the elim team in general.
4. You are Bleeder with Gambling Tycoon as well, and are attempting to place yourself in a position of trust. I think that this would actually be a very strong strategy for Bleeder. Drawing the bodyguard kills onto yourself would stop bodyguards from interfering with your other kills. Flogs could try to counterclaim via an intermediary, but you could probably deflect long enough to out them. Once they died, Winstig would be in play, and you'd just have to pray for their death. After all, Bleeder doesn't have to be alive to win. If you lynch me, you could just claim you'd been extorted when I flip village. You could then use some of your alignment scans to establish yourself as Flogs by giving some correct reads. You could explain the absence of kills as Bleeder testing your defenses or trying to throw suspicion on you.

Yeah, so those are my thoughts.

Furamirionind. Karnage.

I'm getting tired again, but I'm pretty sure the most likely option on this list, assuming you are not an elim, is that Karnage was redirected. The fact you jump straight to assuming he is evil, rather than giving him the benifit of the doubt sounds like a flailing elim.

3 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I leave for an hour and this happens. My goodness.

First things first. @Karnage, I want to believe you and lynch Straw. It makes so much sense if you are Flogs.

But a few things:

1.  Why would Flogs be a Gambling Tycoon? That makes no sense to me whatsoever, as Flogs is already immune to lynches.
2.  I got ninja'd by Straw and therefore read his post. That makes me unsure for voting on him.
3.  Even though you said it yourself, roleclaiming like that is ridiculously risky. Too risky. I could see this being orchestrated in an elim doc.

But then there is the other side of this. I was already quietly suspicious of Striker for seemingly controlling Emi's vote on Karnage last cycle. Now Striker wants to lynch Flogs after he roleclaimed. However, if I assume a Striker/Emi elim team then why would Emi vote Straw instead of Karnage?

Someone is lying here, Karnage or Straw. I don't want to pick a side yet. No vote at the moment.

Because Flogs is the main force stopping the SK from winning. Giving him an extra life makes the SK's job harder, as Flogs can't be killed by a random elim/SK hit. 

Also... hedging... got it. : P

3 hours ago, The_Archivist said:

I find this extremely unlikely. The Extortionist picks an action and a player to preform that action. If the player is unable to preform the action, the extortion doesn't work. I can't see an Extortionist betting on one person being Flogs C1, and even if they did, it's basically impossible for them to get the right person. Even if we somehow ignored that, the way Karnage phrased it, he got a PM saying Straw, specifically, is a constable.

I'd like to give a general warning that the PM bodyguard method is incredibly easy to fool.

What are the chances of lynching flogs on C1?
Well, it's the same odds. xD

3 hours ago, little wilson said:

me not saying we trust karnage completely. on the contrary me fully expected karnage to die in the next two cycles and if hes not even attacked then me would advocate lynching him again to see if hes bleeder herself or an elim who bleeder hasnt attacked yet or if bleeder is trollolling us to get us to lynch him and solve the mystery for her without her having to use an action that isnt a kill. me could see any of these possibilities. but the one we shouldnt do imo is lynch karnage now. thats the worst idea of all the ideas me can think of.

Agreed.

2 hours ago, The_Archivist said:

Even if Straw is found to be an elim, it could still be a bussing. Is that likely? I'm not familiar with the meta.

Unlikely? It's possible, but it would be rather poor etiquette to buss an active team member on C2. Like, the deciding thing in Straw dying this cycle is Karnage's claim, so for all we know Straw may not have died. If this is a bus, the elims must be desperate. Lol

2 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Players who are extorted are told who they targeted

Ah, so the thing I thought was most likely, is impossible.

And I'm skimming through these last long posts, as I'm done with reading for a bit, and have to do some more reading for school a bit later today.

I'm going to put my vote on Pyro, as I think asking a bartender to kill Straw will be more informative as to the elim team comp.

Pryo

Edit: I spent a ton of time reading and responding and stuff, and every time I was about to post, I got ninja'd like 20 times. Lol

Edited May 27, 2020 by Furamirionind

[The Young Pyromancer]

12 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

'm going to put my vote on Pyro, as I think asking a bartender to kill Straw will be more informative as to the elim team comp.

Pryo

Edit: I spent a ton of time reading and responding and stuff, and every time I was about to post, I got ninja'd like 20 ti

Spellt ma name wrung.