Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Kynedath]

Winnowing? @Devotary of Spontaneity

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 minute ago, Kynedath said:

Winnowing? @Devotary of Spontaneity

I couldn't think of the right word for this, and I definitely didn't use it correctly here, but just from the vote count we've reduced the pool of 29 possible players who could have moved Rae's vote to eight who cared about lynching Straw/saving Sart. 

[Straw]

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The lynch was close at some point. Up until pretty close to the end of the cycle, especially activity wise rather than chronological, shifting Rae's vote to you from Sart could have been impactful even with the self-vote cancellation. It's always noteworthy when a vote shift happens, just because it's usually fairly easy to narrow down who the impersonator is. In this particular case, there's eight people it could have been,which is a lot but still a significant winnowing.

I am referring to this comment:

The vote count at that point was:

Fura (2): DeTess, Straw
God King (3): Archivist, Experience, Reading
Karnage (5): Araris, Emi, Pyromancer, Sart, Striker
Matrim (1): Hemalurgic
Pyromancer (1): God King
Sart (4): Arraenae, Karnage, Matrim, Xino
Straw(3): Orlok, wilson, Fura

While this does seem close, I think that Karnage could have reasonably seen that the vote was trending towards him at that point. I think that if he were to claim, then would be one of the more reasonable times to do so. I maintain that he probably should have claimed. His explanation seems somewhat acceptable though. I'm rather curious as to how Furamirionind will respond to DeTess. I assume DeTess is telling the truth, since I don't see much reason for them to lie about it.

Karnage. Furamirionind.

[Karnage]

Okay I am taking a HUGE risk.

I am Flogs

I am also a Gambling Tycoon

I was trying to decide whether it was a risk I should take but seeing as the conversation is already steering towards the idea that I am Flogs, I figured that Bleeder would be onto me soon anyways. 

Few things I was thinking

-There are probable 2 Bodyguards in the Village and maybe one in the elim faction.

- Elim faction wants to keep me alive so that Bleeder doesn't beet them

-If protection is coordinated the each turn I can be protected from Bleeder and the village is that much more closer to winning (same with the elim faction

-If the Bodyguards each send me a PM offering their protection (I promise not to reveal your role to the thread unless I get permission) then I can respond each hour to one (that one would then protect me) while the others protect others on that turn. Each turn I will respond to each one and hopefully forever stay safe from the likes of Bleeder.

- Not only does this help the village but it also helps the elims (except for the fact that I can scan people)

Speaking of Scanning-

I decided to scan straw because they are very hard to read, because they are so integral to the discussion in every game that I have been in with them. I scanned them and Joe replied with saying that they are Constable. Straw

Are we allowed to screen shot pm's? I will wait for a response before I post again.

Hopefully this stirs the pot for the better for the village. If you are a bodyguard and you want either the village or elim team to win I suggest you pm me. 

-Karnage

 

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Karnage

[Shard of Reading]

Well, well, well.

I don't think you are allowed to screen shot pm's. It would remove a whole lot from this game and therefore is likely not allowed.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Well, there's one easy way to tell if Karnage's telling the truth about being Flogs.

Karnage.

[little wilson]

sigh. just gonna say right now that joe is a troll and you probs shouldnt have roleclaimed cuz I wouldnt be surprised if theres only one bodyguard to prevent exactly what you are suggesting. things like that have happened in previous games joes run soooo thats fun.

regardless i said straw was off. what say all you peeps who were like nooooooo straw be a good one! dont kill him!

[Arrae]

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Well, there's one easy way to tell if Karnage's telling the truth about being Flogs.

Karnage.

Pyro. Chances are that Karnage is going to get a Bleeder kill aimed their way after this claim and will die soon anyways. A villager has pretty much no reason to falsely claim that they scanned someone as an eliminator, so the easiest way to verify this is to lynch Straw. The fact that you don't want to makes me think that you might be on Straw's team.

Honestly, I'll probably move my vote onto Straw later today, but I'd like to milk just a little bit more discussion out of this cycle. Please? Pile-ons tell us nothing until we get lynch results back.

[Emi]

Yeah, I'm trusting Karnage about straw. He seemed like telling the truth.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Emi

[The Young Pyromancer]

4 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Pyro. Chances are that Karnage is going to get a Bleeder kill aimed their way after this claim and will die soon anyways. A villager has pretty much no reason to falsely claim that they scanned someone as an eliminator, so the easiest way to verify this is to lynch Straw. The fact that you don't want to makes me think that you might be on Straw's team.

Honestly, I'll probably move my vote onto Straw later today, but I'd like to milk just a little bit more discussion out of this cycle. Please? Pile-ons tell us nothing until we get lynch results back.

If we lynch Straw, that doesn't confirm Karnage. Karnage could be a Bleeder/Gambling Tycoon, who scanned Straw as an Elim and so wants to verify themselves as Flogs, while making it difficult for the other Flogs to roleclaim. However, since this is an even cycle, if we lynch Karnage, we can verify his identity, then a Bartender can kill Straw. It's the most efficient option.

[little wilson]

dude bleeders gonna off karnage if karnage isnt bleeder and if karnage is bleeder him surviving more than two cycles without getting attacked and saved by a bodyguard will just mean that we lynch him later. lets not make it too obvious to bleeder (if karnage isnt bleeder) that this is actually flogs by lynching him again and him surviving again.

you look sooooo sus right now pyro and if I werent voting on straw, id totes be stabbing you. js

edit: oh noes my phone put a capital i in how dare it! gaaaahhhh. this is why me shouldnt post on phone. but me cant backspace so the capital stays :((((((((

[Karnage]

16 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

A villager has pretty much no reason to falsely claim that they scanned someone as an eliminator, so the easiest way to verify this is to lynch Straw. The fact that you don't want to makes me think that you might be on Straw's team.

Exactly. I don't get it pyro why are you so against me?

I will scan Pyro this turn since he seems very suspicious. 

I am Flogs tho so if I get killed then 1. Theres no way to find elims other than by lynching them 2. Bleeder is that much closer to winning and both elims and villagers are that much closer to losing. 3. If I die we lose a source of village "working together thing" if anybody does end up pming me. 

If Pyro shows up as non- constable than I am assuming they are Bleeder. If anythings this role claims and elims and village working together to keep me alive helps bleeder the least then elim team and finally village. Therefore Bleeder will do anything to try to convince everyone to kill me as flogs.

Edit: I just saw wilsons post and I would agree Pyro you look really suspicious, and depending on what you flip with my scan you might be nex on the lynch after straw.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Karnage

[The Young Pyromancer]

Okay, Wilson's thing makes sense. Karnage Straw.

 

[StrikerEZ]

Hmm. This is very interesting.

I kind of agree with Pyro. At first, I thought it was odd that he voted on Karnage (I was about to recommend we lynch him or at the very least recommend someone kill him). His latest explanation kind of makes sense. If Karnage is Flogs, we'll find out for sure if we lynch him again. And if he isn't, then we call his bluff and either lynch an elim or Bleeder. If he is telling the truth, it shouldn't be too hard for the village bodyguards to go about trying to keep him alive. If he isn't telling the truth, then we lose nothing and gain the death of an elim/Bleeder. 

If Karnage isn't Flogs, the real Flogs should NOT come out and counter-claim. Karnage

[little wilson]

this is a terrible terrible idea oh my goodness

[Emi]

2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

this is a terrible terrible idea oh my goodness

I agree with you

[StrikerEZ]

Just now, little wilson said:

this is a terrible terrible idea oh my goodness

I don't understand why you think it's a terrible idea. I find it hard to believe that the village wouldn't have enough bodyguards to at least take turns covering Flogs for long enough for him to scan players for us for awhile to at least make up for the fact that Bleeder will be doing everything in their power to kill him. If Karnage survives this lynch, then we know for sure that he's actually Flogs. All of the village bartenders PM him, and he tells one of them to protect him, alternating who he tells each cycle. If Karnage doesn't survive the lynch, then we've caught an elim.

[Straw]

29 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Okay I am taking a HUGE risk.

I am Flogs

I am also a Gambling Tycoon

I was trying to decide whether it was a risk I should take but seeing as the conversation is already steering towards the idea that I am Flogs, I figured that Bleeder would be onto me soon anyways. 

Few things I was thinking

-There are probable 2 Bodyguards in the Village and maybe one in the elim faction.

- Elim faction wants to keep me alive so that Bleeder doesn't beet them

-If protection is coordinated the each turn I can be protected from Bleeder and the village is that much more closer to winning (same with the elim faction

-If the Bodyguards each send me a PM offering their protection (I promise not to reveal your role to the thread unless I get permission) then I can respond each hour to one (that one would then protect me) while the others protect others on that turn. Each turn I will respond to each one and hopefully forever stay safe from the likes of Bleeder.

- Not only does this help the village but it also helps the elims (except for the fact that I can scan people)

Speaking of Scanning-

I decided to scan straw because they are very hard to read, because they are so integral to the discussion in every game that I have been in with them. I scanned them and Joe replied with saying that they are Constable. Straw

Are we allowed to screen shot pm's? I will wait for a response before I post again.

Hopefully this stirs the pot for the better for the village. If you are a bodyguard and you want either the village or elim team to win I suggest you pm me. 

-Karnage

No, you can't screenshot PMs. Read the SE rules.

First of all, I'm not a Constable, so I know you're lying. That means you're doing a gambit. You could also be extorted, and incorrect by accident.

I see a few possibilities:

1. You are Flogs, and were extorted. In this case, we should attempt to keep you alive. However, I'm curious as to why you didn't try to reveal your findings through someone else, rather than claiming to the thread? You're currently not too much danger of being lynched, what with DeTess stalking Fura, and I think people would be fairly willing to jump on a train on me if someone said that Flogs had scanned me. I also don't see why you'd claim so early in the cycle. It makes little logical sense, as you'd probably want to take more time to evaluate the situation and your options if you were actually Flogs.
2. You are a villager attempting a gambit. I could completely believe that a new player would try something like this. However, it doesn't seem that well thought out. I could see you basically just using it as a super-vote on me, and praying that I'm an elim. I could also see you doing it to try to draw Bleeder's attention, allowing the real Flogs to stay alive for longer. In this case, I'm not sure why you'd claim I'm an elim, instead of claiming I'm a villager. The final thing I could see for this option, and the most unlikely in my opinion, is you trying to get actual elims to contact you, so you can out them to the thread and admit that you didn't actually scan me. Sorry for wrecking this if it is what you're trying, but I have to defend myself.
3. You are an eliminator attempting to escape the lynch. Doing this would probably be a decent decision for the elim team. You can get an easy mislynch on me, and then try to defend yourself by saying you were extorted. As an added bonus, you can out all the bodyguards that contact you to the elim team, allowing the elim team to wipe them out. Sure, it'd most likely end in a lynch on you, but it'd be good for the elim team in general.
4. You are Bleeder with Gambling Tycoon as well, and are attempting to place yourself in a position of trust. I think that this would actually be a very strong strategy for Bleeder. Drawing the bodyguard kills onto yourself would stop bodyguards from interfering with your other kills. Flogs could try to counterclaim via an intermediary, but you could probably deflect long enough to out them. Once they died, Winstig would be in play, and you'd just have to pray for their death. After all, Bleeder doesn't have to be alive to win. If you lynch me, you could just claim you'd been extorted when I flip village. You could then use some of your alignment scans to establish yourself as Flogs by giving some correct reads. You could explain the absence of kills as Bleeder testing your defenses or trying to throw suspicion on you.

Yeah, so those are my thoughts.

Furamirionind. Karnage.

[Elbereth]

Quote

Are we allowed to screen shot pm's? I will wait for a response before I post again.

No. Please do not copy-paste or screenshot PMs with other players nor the GM.

[Mat]

I leave for an hour and this happens. My goodness.

First things first. @Karnage, I want to believe you and lynch Straw. It makes so much sense if you are Flogs.

But a few things:

1.  Why would Flogs be a Gambling Tycoon? That makes no sense to me whatsoever, as Flogs is already immune to lynches.
2.  I got ninja'd by Straw and therefore read his post. That makes me unsure for voting on him.
3.  Even though you said it yourself, roleclaiming like that is ridiculously risky. Too risky. I could see this being orchestrated in an elim doc.

But then there is the other side of this. I was already quietly suspicious of Striker for seemingly controlling Emi's vote on Karnage last cycle. Now Striker wants to lynch Flogs after he roleclaimed. However, if I assume a Striker/Emi elim team then why would Emi vote Straw instead of Karnage?

Someone is lying here, Karnage or Straw. I don't want to pick a side yet. No vote at the moment.

 

[The_Archivist]

9 minutes ago, Straw said:

 

1. You are Flogs, and were extorted. In this case, we should attempt to keep you alive. However, I'm curious as to why you didn't try to reveal your findings through someone else, rather than claiming to the thread? You're currently not too much danger of being lynched, what with DeTess stalking Fura, and I think people would be fairly willing to jump on a train on me if someone said that Flogs had scanned me. I also don't see why you'd claim so early in the cycle. It makes little logical sense, as you'd probably want to take more time to evaluate the situation and your options if you were actually Flogs.

I find this extremely unlikely. The Extortionist picks an action and a player to preform that action. If the player is unable to preform the action, the extortion doesn't work. I can't see an Extortionist betting on one person being Flogs C1, and even if they did, it's basically impossible for them to get the right person. Even if we somehow ignored that, the way Karnage phrased it, he got a PM saying Straw, specifically, is a constable.

I'd like to give a general warning that the PM bodyguard method is incredibly easy to fool.

[The Young Pyromancer]

5 minutes ago, The_Archivist said:

the extortion doesn't work

It takes a random action if the selected is impossible to perform.

EDIT: Flame On!

Edited May 27, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[Straw]

1 minute ago, The_Archivist said:

I find this extremely unlikely. The Extortionist picks an action and a player to preform that action. If the player is unable to preform the action, the extortion doesn't work. I can't see an Extortionist betting on one person being Flogs C1, and even if they did, it's basically impossible for them to get the right person. Even if we somehow ignored that, the way Karnage phrased it, he got a PM saying Straw, specifically, is a constable.

I'd like to give a general warning that the PM bodyguard method is incredibly easy to fool.

I think you might need to reread Joe's post on how Extortionists work. He says that if they can't use the action, they use a random action instead. As Flogs only has one action, his scan would be used no matter what.

[The_Archivist]

Ohhhhhhh. I can't believe I missed that.

[little wilson]

22 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I don't understand why you think it's a terrible idea. I find it hard to believe that the village wouldn't have enough bodyguards to at least take turns covering Flogs for long enough for him to scan players for us for awhile to at least make up for the fact that Bleeder will be doing everything in their power to kill him. If Karnage survives this lynch, then we know for sure that he's actually Flogs. All of the village bartenders PM him, and he tells one of them to protect him, alternating who he tells each cycle. If Karnage doesn't survive the lynch, then we've caught an elim.

you should never make strategies like this betting on role distribution when you got a GM whosa a trollllolllolllooolllll. you assume we got more than one bodyguard and that just aint a good assumption since i can totes see joe only putting one in to prevent this exact scenario - where flogs public claims and hes kept alive and be bleeder be screwed.

and even if we have multiple bodyguards what is one is inactive? or what if they decide to protect someone else because they assume someone else protects flogs because why wouldnt everyone protect flogs.

this is such a baaaaaaadddddd plan me cant even