Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[A Joe in the Bush]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

Assuming no one had extra lives remaining, who would win in that case?  

The Village. Flogs can't be lynched. If you're assuming Flogs is already dead and Winsting is around to be lynched, then Bleeder would win, since Winsting would be dead and the party wouldn't have dispersed. Come to think of it, I need to figure out which comes first, the Lynch or the Party Dispersal. . .

[Straw]

13 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Assuming no one had extra lives remaining, who would win in that case?  

Since you're on, can you explain why you voted for me? I have yet to see any sort of explanation other than you saying that Karnage has lots of votes. Looking back, I don't see many reads from you. You seemed to pressure Pyro a bit, but haven't gone further. In your most recent post, you mentioned a gut bad read on DeTess, but nothing else. Do you have any other reads you can share with us?

[The Young Pyromancer]

...damnation. Thought that was a good idea.

I still have my PM. Anyone want to talk to me more privately? I don't really know what to do with it right now.

[Furamirionind]

Just now, Straw said:

Since you're on, can you explain why you voted for me? I have yet to see any sort of explanation other than you saying that Karnage has lots of votes. Looking back, I don't see many reads from you. You seemed to pressure Pyro a bit, but haven't gone further. In your most recent post, you mentioned a gut bad read on DeTess, but nothing else. Do you have any other reads you can share with us?

I'm not really on. Just trying not to fall behind the thread while working on an essay... But here is something I started writing before I went to homework.

Yes, I jumped from Karnage's wagon because of the rush of votes. They died down so idk now. I'd have to look back through the thread as to who voted when. Something I'll do when my essay is done.

Did I mention a bad gut read on DeTess? I'm not really thinking about this game right now, but I don't recall saying that? I think I just disagreed with them. I'd have to go back and reread our posts.

9 minutes ago, Straw said:

So, you're hopping off his vote train onto mine? What's your reasoning for voting on me? What makes me a better lynch? I'm not sure what your logic for this is supposed to be.

Because people aren't piling on you a ton? You sound a bit defensive? You do realize there are like 4 other people up for the lynch with you right now, right? Lol
Mostly it's the first, like I keep saying. It's something I've seen Drake do a lot, and I've found he is normally right. When no one is defending someone, of if too many people are jumping to them, then they aren't a good lynch.

Also, it's D1. No one is going to have perfect reasons.

12 minutes ago, Straw said:

I wrote the post, got to Matrim's Araris question, went and found Araris's post, and then decided to add that to the reads. My quote posts aren't always written chronologically. Sorry if it was confusing. This reminded me, Xino posted some thoughts, so I'll move to Fura in hopes of a fast response.

Are we just doing this every game now? Lol

[Mat]

15 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Mostly it's the first, like I keep saying. It's something I've seen Drake do a lot, and I've found he is normally right. 

Wasn't Drake the one in QF44 who led a bunch of lynches that were villagers? Or was that TGK?

Edit: It was Drake I was thinking of, but my accusation is still slightly unfair seeing as the elim team played really well that game and he wasn't the only one voting for the village. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Sart]

Well, you can tell I'm back to being a villager based on all the suspicion I've gathered. Somehow I'm more trusted as an eliminator than I am as a villager. I'm going to vote on Karnage to save my own skin, but I've got a village read on them, so this is awkward. Plus, if they flip village this is just going to draw more suspicion on me. Its unfortunate, but a 80% chance of a villager death is still better than a 100% chance. Straw, I'm still getting the same vibes I got when you were a serial killer. However, it appears that the majority of players do not suspect you. Actually, I'm going to make a tally on this:

Suspect Straw (5): Wilson, Orlok, Young Pyromancer, Furamirionind, Sart
Don't Suspect Straw (11): Xinoehp, Matrim's Dice, Elkanah, Kynedath, Arraenae, StrikerEZ, BrightnessRadiant, DeTess, Coda, Shard of Reading, The Archivist

And for kicks, here's a tally on where the village stands on me:
Suspect Sart (5): Xinoehp, Matrim's Dice, Arraenae, Karnage, Archivist
Don't Suspect Sart (2): Araris, Zillah

Okay, so the only people brave enough to support me are Araris, who is well known for his support of stab votes, and Zillah, who is honestly kind of surprising, but I appreciate it nonetheless. Given the amount of support for Straw, I suspect some Elims are among that large group. Whether that's elims gathering up to protect a teammate, or just elims defending a villager to blend in, remains unseen. Honestly, I think it's the latter, but I still think Straw is Bleeder for some reason. However, we don't need to concentrate on Bleeder, so I needed to move my vote anyways.

[Straw]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I'm not really on. Just trying not to fall behind the thread while working on an essay... But here is something I started writing before I went to homework.

Yes, I jumped from Karnage's wagon because of the rush of votes. They died down so idk now. I'd have to look back through the thread as to who voted when. Something I'll do when my essay is done.

Did I mention a bad gut read on DeTess? I'm not really thinking about this game right now, but I don't recall saying that? I think I just disagreed with them. I'd have to go back and reread our posts.

Interesting that you completely dodged my request for reads. Hopefully you'll give some later. Even gut reads would be good.

For DeTess, you said that something felt off about one of their paragraphs, so I assumed it was a bad gut read. I guess it wasn't, then?

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Because people aren't piling on you a ton? You sound a bit defensive? You do realize there are like 4 other people up for the lynch with you right now, right? Lol
Mostly it's the first, like I keep saying. It's something I've seen Drake do a lot, and I've found he is normally right. When no one is defending someone, of if too many people are jumping to them, then they aren't a good lynch.

Also, it's D1. No one is going to have perfect reasons.

Are we just doing this every game now? Lol

So, going over some of your reasons:

1. People aren't piling on me: I don't see why this is a reason to lynch me? That's the case for most everyone in the player list, so it's a weak case.
2. I sound defensive: First of all, you know I'm defensive, and that I'd push back regardless of alignment. I don't see why I shouldn't be defensive, considering how weak the case against me is.

Your no perfect reasons thing feels like an excuse to not contribute to the thread. As I've said in response to others, I hate that sort of thinking. It makes for weak information later on, and gives elims a shield to hide behind.

I'll vote on you if you seem suspicious. Also, pretty ironic that you'd say that when you're the one to jump on me.

I'm feeling a lot better about voting on you now. I want to give you the benefit of the doubt, since I often go after you, but I just can't do that with how you're acting.

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Sart said:

And for kicks, here's a tally on where the village stands on me:

Suspect Sart (5): Xinoehp, Matrim's Dice, Arraenae, Karnage, Archivist
Don't Suspect Sart (2): Araris, Zillah

Emphasis mine.

Was this word choice intentional or just you writing? I can see how you would just write it as 'the village' subconsciously- it seems like something I would do- but it still makes me cock my head a little bit.

[little wilson]

joeeeee dost thou have an officially count of the stabby stabs?

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I'm afraid I haven't caught all the way up, but it is 2am, and I really do not have the energy to get through the last 25 or so posts. As such, my thoughts up to my last post:

Posts by game	Cycle	Posts by turn	Player:	Key content:	Thoughts on content:	Alignment indicative:	Vote:	Retractions:
1	D1	1	Silberfarben	Hasn't received PM	N/A	NAI
2	D1	2	Elkanah	Welcomes all to game	N/A	NAI
3	D1	3	DeTess	Elims need to kill Bleeder, Bleeder needs to keep Elims alive. Can't trust Bodyguard protection. Elims might want to double tap anyoen with bodyguard protection. Focus of village should be on eliminators, not Bleeder.	Mild village. Suggests that he was trying to give advice to eliminator team in mutual interest.	Mild village
4	D1	4	Elkanah	Jokes about dispersing	Less likely for eliminator to joke about it	Mild village
5	D1	5	Silberfarben	RP	N/A	NAI
6	D1	6	Emi	Asks if we are playing in this thread	Eliminator with so little knowledge would ask elim doc	Moderate village read
7	D1	7	Silberfarben	Confirms we are playing in this thread	N/A	NAI
8	D1	8	DeTess	Dscribes thread creation each cycle	N/A	NAI
9	D1	9	Straw	Responds to DeTess' post. Corrects DeTess stating that Flogs is a role scanner, saying that's what renowned are. Also recommends Flogs be careful. Says we shouldn't trust anyone who has survived. Says focusing on Bleeder would probably be a waste of effort.	Gut read against "probably". Possible Renowned?	Very mild evil
10	D1	10	Coda	Lots of players. Tells Flogs not to die.	Feels like a comment to appear good, not add value	Mild to moderate evil
11	D1	11	Matrim	Asks how many eliminators there normally are. Suggests 3/1 ratio.	Unsure. Genuine question or attempt to appear as confused villager.	Unsure.
12	D1	12	Straw	Responds to Matrim. Says normally 20%-25% eliminators. Suggests seven or eight.	N/A. Reconsider if Straw flips evil.	NAI
13	D1	13	Karnage	Suggests we need to get rid of 7-8 constables if Straw to be believed. Questions whether Elkanah's joke about dispersing was a sign for future constables.	Less likely that Straw and Karnage on the same team if one evil. Think genuine uncertainty around constables, but unclear.	Very mild village
14	D1	14	Matrim	Also questions whether Elkanah's joke was serious.	Very marginally less likely Matrim and Karnage on the same team if either evil.	NAI
15	D1	15	Emi	Apologises for asking questions, asks what we are meant to do.	Genuine uncertainty	Moderate village read
16	D1	16	Matrim	Says also wondering what to do. Thinks first cycle about gut reads and waiting for mistakes. Jokes about being a villager. Thinks eliminators will bandwagon because they have a doc.	Some village, some evil. Think naivity around bandwagon suggests possible non-eliminator.	Mild village read
17	D1	17	Kynedath	Says we need to look for people acting in a suspicious manner. Says we're unlikely to hit an eliminator D1, but lynching D1 is a big way to gain info. Won't vote on D1 for moral reasons.Says poke voting may be less likely. Is going to try to be more active.	Contradictory, but appears to be consistent with previous behaviour.	NAI
18	D1	18	Emi	Thanks Kynedath	N/A	NAI
19	D1	19	Elkanah	Explains disperse vote a joke. Says game doesn't start properly until C3	Disagree with C3. Possible attempt to prevent analysis. Unlikely.	NAI
20	D1	20	Matrim	Says he recieved a notification that Xino posted, but no post	N/A	NAI
21	D1	21	Straw	Says we should try our hardest for a D1 lynch despite limited information. D1 vote gives basis for future discussion. Checked the rules and elims do have a doc. Says Eliminators unlikely to bandwagon.	Agree re D1 lynch. Checking rules for elim doc feels forced.	Mild evil
22	D1	22	Elkanah	Says they like no retraction mechanic. Expresses belief in Kynedath re activity.	N/A	NAI
23	D1	23	Matrim	Says he won't be low profile	N/A	NAI
24	D1	24	Xino	Rules analysis. Suggests Flogs actually better off sharing identity with constables.	Nothing at all controversial. Post to appear active?	V. mild evil
25	D1	25	Emi	Says Xino's post contains a lot of information.	Again, feels genuine	Mild village
26	D1	26	Elkanah	Dowser has normal village win condition. Says game information heavy. With gambling tycoons, c. 34 lives in game.	None	NAI
27	D1	27	Striker	Welcomes new players. Asks Joe about PM mechanic. Says Xino stated his thoughts on the game. Suggests possibly 9 eliminators, because Joe is a troll.	Less likely evil if Straw evil	NAI
28	D1	28	Matrim	Asks further re PM mechanic	N/A	NAI
29	D1	29	HH	Says many kills each cycle. Says C1 lynch may be a bit much, but opportunity for village to direct a kill. No vote.	Absence fo vote despite conclusion interesting. Ignores strong eliminator ability to direct early lynch.	Mild evil
30	D1	30	Straw	Agrees that nine eliminators is a possibility if strong village or weak eliminator team. Poke votes Araris	Sensible analysis	Mild village	Araris
31	D1	31	Mist	Says 3 vote lynch requirement only C1. Says Bleeder won't want to kill too many eliminators too quickly.	N/A	NAI
32	D1	32	Matrim	Asks whether Straw has miscounted	N/A	NAI
33	D1	33	Straw	Clarifies to Matrim his poke vote	N/A	NAI
34	D1	34	wilson	rp. roleclaims gossip. gut reads against straw and karnage. votes straw.	in character with wilson having fun.	very mild village	straw
35	D1	35	Straw	Asks why Wilson has bad gut read against Karnage and himself. Says Xino's post bothers him.	Makes sensible point re Xino - agree. Yet keeps poke vote and doesn't vote based on what botehrs him?	Unsure.
36	D1	36	Pyro	Says he is going to be less active as he doesn't want to die early.	Not helpful to village. Obfuscates reads.	Mild evil
37	D1	37	wilson	says a gut read is a gut read. not able to explain it.	doesnt feel a need to justify herself.	nai
38	D1	38	Matrim	Confuses Straw's poke vote. Votes on Straw.	Quick to leap on misunderstanding. Unlikely to be on a team with Straw. Possibly too eager for a lynch?	Unsure - revisit if Straw dies	Straw
39	D1	39	Straw	Tells Pyro his playstyle isn't useful. Explains poke vote.	Agree re play style.	Very mild village
40	D1	40	wilson	explains straws poke vote.	n/a	nai
41	D1	41	Pyro	Complains about Straw being suspicious of those who post less. Remains committed to it.	Overacting? Seems committed to low involvement playstyle.	Mild evil
42	D1	42	Xino	Finishes rule review.	Still no engagement with actual players.	Very mild evil
43	D1	43	Straw	Questions whether Matrim was trying to get a lynch train started on him	Seems to be genuine confusion from Matrim. Excuse to cast suspicion on him? Still has poke vote on Araris.	Very mild evil
44	D1	44	Dot	RP	N/A	NAI
45	D1	45	Matrim	Retracts from Straw, poke votes on Archivist following Straw's pattern.	Yet less likely that Straw and Matrim on the same team.	NAI	Archivist	Straw
46	D1	46	Elkanah	Says their point was more lynches to lylo. Therefore more information.	Sensible enough	NAI
47	D1	47	wilson	explains her posting style	n/a	nai
48	D1	48	Karnage	Votes on Fura. Asks whether Wilson's style is to confuse people.	Seems like honest question	NAI	Fura
49	D1	49	wilson	explains her style and why shes doing it	agree wholeheartedly	nai
50	D1	50	Devotary	Says killing anyone who survives a lynch could be killing Flogs	Fair observation	NAI
51	D1	51	Karnage	Responds positively to Wilson	n/a	NAI
52	D1	52	Pyro	Congratulates Karnage on post count	Waste of thread...	NAI
53	D1	53	Matrim	Congratulates Straw on post count	Waste of thread...	NAI
54	D1	54	Bugsy	Says he will be inactive this cycle due to essay	N/A	NAI
55	D1	55	BR	Complains about too many posts. Mixes up village an eliminator names. Says eliminator team would be hilariously big with seven or eight people.	Have muslynched for mixing names before. Worth watching. Agrees with Straw that team probably not bigger than seven or eight. Possible that on same team if evil, trying to sell smaller team?	Mild evil
56	D1	56	Orlok	Votes on Straw as third vote. Has missed Matrim's retraction.	Is an idiot. Can't even read properly.	Village
57	D1	57	Pyro	Questions whether game could have fewer elims than normal to make village paranoid.	Not helpful to state - shouldn't be lowering people's guard.	Moderate evil.
58	D1	58	Straw	Says village win if bleeder also dead. Asks Orlok's reasoning for vote.	Moves discussion on.	NAI
59	D1	59	Emi	Says they're going to sleep	N/A	NAI
60	D1	60	Orlok	Vote on Straw is gut. Wanted to make three vote lynch.	See above. Clearly an idiot.	Village
61	D1	61	Fura	Tells Pyro never played a game where he died C1. Says he has complained about C1 death every game, so NAI. Votes on Karnage in retailiation	Useful information.	NAI	Karnage
62	D1	62	Pyro	Says worst he has been is neutral. Lists early deaths.	Sympathy appeal. Reminds everyone never evil - so can't be this time?	Moderate evil.	Pyro
63	D1	63	Fura	Says Pyro's early deaths all ages ago. Says Striker became more active after repeatedly dying early.	Still no vote on Pyro?	Unsure
64	D1	64	Striker	Comments on previous early deaths	N/A	NAI
65	D1	65	Matrim	Asks if he can PM Joe whenever	Seems genuine confusion	Strong village
66	D1	66	Fura	Answers Matrim	N/A	NAI
67	D1	67	Pyro	Thinks renowned are alignment scanners.	If evil would know this not to be case	Mild village
68	D1	68	Karnage	Poke votes God King, retracts from Fura for posting	Not helpful use of votes. Consistent.	NAI	God King	Fura
69	D1	69	Arraenae	Win con analysis.	Useful information.	NAI
70	D1	70	Araris	Votes on Karnage for poke voting only	Fair enough vote.	Mild village	Karnage
71	D1	71	Orlok	Multiquote. Thinks Emi village. Worried about Xino, Coda, Straw, Pyro	Needs to get some sleep	Village
72	D1	72	Matrim	Says his vote is staying on Archivist, but agrees with Orlok re worry about Coda	Seems to believe in poke votes.	NAI
73	D1	73	Elkanah	Says Coda's behaviour is standard for them. Won't vote on KArnage as tunnelled on them last game.	Useful information.	NAI
74	D1	74	Pyro	Again says he has never been mafia. Says he is disappointed not to be soemthing interesting.	Very strong gut against this.	EVIL
75	D1	75	Matrim	Asks what NAI means	Would probably be asked in elim doc if in one	Mild village
76	D1	76	Elkanah	Apologises for using acronym	N/A	NAI
77	D1	77	Straw	Says language picked up by Orlok is normal for him. Says suspicious of Xino, Pyro, Karnage. Will be fine with Pyro if he starts posting.	Lots of connections.	NAI
78	D1	78	Arraenae	Tells Orlok that people are saving PMs	True, misses Orlok's point	NAI
79	D1	79	Pyro	Does basic role analysis	Not alignment indicative posting. Doesn't give information on relationships between players.	NAI
80	D1	80	Fura	Does elim count analysis. Suggests 9 eliminators.	V useful post. High elim count - not downplaying	Mild village
81	D1	81	Straw	Asks Pyro for reads. Asks Orlok why he village reads Emi.	V sensible post re Pyro.	Mild village
82	D1	82	Straw	Answers Joe	N/A	NAI
83	D1	83	Matrim	Asks Straw if he passed his test	N/A	NAI
84	D1	84	Pyro	Says Wilson being weird makes it hard to read her. Queries whether this is her point? Thinks Matrim playing oddly. Village reads Karnage. Says Straw and Orlok making a big deal of his posting differently, but Straw being reasonable.	Can't spell my name. Disagree with most of his analysis, but appreciate him putting it there	Unsure
85	D1	85	Sart	Vote count. Votes on Straw for not giving his own reads, and to force a vote. Thinks Karnage playing normally.	Agree with him.	Mild village	Straw
86	D1	86	Matrim	Says he poke voted Archivist. Says Straw leaving vote on Araris is odd.	Poke voting isn't useful. Fair observation re Straw.	Unsure
87	D1	87	Pyro	Votes on Straw for leaving vote on Araris	Better than nothing	Unsure - revisit if Straw dies	Straw
88	D1	88	Straw	Replies to Araris, says he has given thoughts on players. Gives further reads. Kynedath village for helping players. HH elim read due to waffle. NAI on Coda. Araris suspicious. Wilson suspiciousish. Then says "Araris posted?" Moves vote to Xino.	Great that giving reads. V useful. Araris read then question whether they've posted v. odd. Ask about this.	Unsure but useful	Xino	Araris
89	D1	89	Pyro	Elkanah posting a lot not saying much. Moves vote from Straw to Elkanah	Vote on Straw NAI. Possibly distancing.	Unsure	Elkanah	Straw
90	D1	90	Karnage	Asks what is wrong with poke voting. Says Orlok shouldn't think they are a villager just because he forgot the elim doc exists. Identifies Pyro's post trying to slip under the radar.	No vote on Pyro for this? Village gut on this post.	Moderate village read
91	D1	91	Xino	Vote count. Gives reads. Trusts Elkanah on gut. Says he doesn't agree with Orlok's vote on Straw. Sart vote based on false information. Votes on Sart for bandwagonning.	Seems justifiable belief.	Mild village	Sart
92	D1	92	Araris	Defends Sart, suspicious of Xino.	Fair enough.	Mild village
93	D1	93	Matrim	Village read Straw for honest contributions. Village reads Pyro. Slight elim reads on Sart and Araris. Elim read on Elkanah for joke. Xino gut village. Still poke voting Archivist	Elim read on Elkanah odd. Misunderstanding of game makes me think doesn't have a team.	Mild village
94	D1	94	Elkanah	Says doesn't want to lynch active players	N/A	NAI
95	D1	95	God King	Says he is lurking.	Terrible strategy. That he's admitting to it is less likely if evil.	Mild village
96	D1	96	BR	Points out to Matrim that eliminators less likely to make jokes. Reads it as NAI for Elkanah. Doesn't want to lynch Straw when he is this active. Thinks Pyro NAI. Village vibe for Fura. Defends Pyro again.	Strong connection with Pyro	Moderate evil.
97	D1	97	Pyro	Informs BR that when retractign a vote you have to place a new one	N/A	NAI
98	D1	98	BR	Correcting misunderstanding	N/A	NAI
99	D1	99	Kynedath	Rules analysis. Dispersion less important than had initially thought. Reads: BR neutral, but post suspicious. Xino not suspicious for going through roles. Like Straw's activity. Doesn't like lynch on Karnage. Suspicious of DeTess. Bad gut on God King.	Reads feel genuine. Agree re Karnage. Disagree re DeTess.	Mild village.
100	D1	100	Zillah	Thinks Kynedath's attempt at new playstyle leans vilage. Elkanah's joke NAI. Suspicious of Sart for adding pressure to Straw. Disagrees with Xino that Sart is bandwagoning. Asks Matrim why he thinks Xino leans elim.	Reads feel genuine. Particularly like nuance on Sart.	Mild village
101	D1	101	Pyro	God King a lurker	Obviously	NAI
102	D1	102	Emi	Says they're here	N/A	NAI
103	D1	103	God King	Admits to lurking - only posted to vote next cycle	We should lynch lurkers on policy.	Moderate village read
104	D1	104	Arraenae	Deep dive on Straw. Thinks no WGG if Straw evil. Thinks possible connection between Straw and Araris. Identifies lack of vote on Xino. Thinks Straw is acting like Orlok used to by pushing others for reads. Thinks Straw lynch would be information rich, but enjoys Straw's new playstyle. Wants to leave him alove for a few more turns. Votes on Sart as disagrees with him on Straw.	Red flag at Straw acting like "old!Orlok". I had a very, very high rate of being evil during that period.	Mild village	Sart
105	D1	105	BR	Says she is feeling better but is meant to be asleep	N/A	NAI
106	D1	106	Emi	RP	N/A	NAI
107	D1	107	Striker	Confused by God King, and by suspicion on Straw. Thinks Straw's playstyle is typical of him in recent games.	Suspicion of Straw not driven by playstyle	Mild evil
108	D1	108	Orlok	Explains info-gathering lynch logic on Straw	Anyone who comments on this to me gets a prize.	Village
109	D1	109	BR	Doesn't want to lynch most active player for info gathering, so against lynching Straw.	Second connection with Straw. Possible teammates?	Mild evil
110	D1	110	DeTess	Asks Orlok to explain village read on Emi. Responds to Kynedath's question on their activity. Says Pyro is playing very defensively. Doubts there are nine eliminators due to early stage LyLo. Thinks Araris and Sart not teammates. Votes on Fura, suspicious of Pyro, God King.	I should probably respond to this at some point. Agree strongly re Pyro. Agree re Araris and Sart.	Mild village	Fura
111	D1	111	Silberfarben	RP, will be inactive going forward	N/A	NAI
112	D1	112	Coda	Defends Straw. Thinks Straw a villager. DOes not think anyone is suspicious.	Strong link with Straw, obviously. Teammates if either evil?	Mild evil
113	D1	113	Straw	Disagrees with Orlok's views on information lynching. Thinks it corrupts information you get. THinks we should focus on suspicion.	Well made argument.	NAI
114	D1	114	Karnage	Questions Araris on his willingness to bandwagon but not poke vote. Thinks Sart and Araris are on a team.	Strong disagreement on both points. Bandwagon here generates much more information. Poke votes totally useless.	Mild evil
115	D1	115	Orlok	Explains view on information imbalance.	Clearly hasn't properly read Straw's post re corrupted information	Village
116	D1	116	Matrim	Suspicious of Xino because everyone else is. Village reads Orlok, Straw, BR, Kynedath. Elim reads Sart, God King, Araris. Votes on Sart, retracts from Archivist	Weak reasoning, but unafraid to post weak reasoning. Disagree with almost all reads.	Mild village	Sart	Archivist
117	D1	117	Shard of Reading	Apologises for inactivity. Defends Straw because first round lynches inaccurate, doesn't sound like an eliminator, seems to be drawing information out of people.	Bizarre reasoning - first point would apply to anyone. Unsure why singling Straw out - inexperienced and defending teammate? Likely evil if Straw evil.	Moderate evil.
118	D1	118	Emi	Asks where we vote	Utter confusion	Village
119	D1	119	Matrim	Explains how you vote	N/A	NAI
120	D1	120	Straw	Responds to Orlok on infolynching. Thinks Sart and Araris suspicious. Thinks Pyro and Xino suspicious, but less so than earlier. Asks Emi what they feel like about Orlok village reading them.	Surprised by belief that both Sart *and* Araris evil. THink if so, either or.	Mild village
121	D1	121	Emi	Talks about changing vote colour	N/A	NAI
122	D1	122	Experience	Comments on Straw. Thinks he isn't a Serial Killer. Votes on God King.	God King lynch is ultra low information. Waste of a cycle. Why comment on Straw?	Mild evil	God King
123	D1	123	Kynedath	Thinks infolynching weak. Brutal philosophy that encourages inactivity. Suspicious of Orlok.	Disagree, but understand sentiment.	NAI
124	D1	124	God King	Says doesn't bother engaging D1 because nothing good comes out of it	Wouldn't D2 be the same if we didn't engage D1?	NAI
125	D1	125	Straw	Disagrees with God King's logic	Eminently sensible	NAI
126	D1	126	Shard of Reading	Asks what C1 is	N/A	NAI
127	D1	127	Kynedath	Answers Shard of Reading re C1	N/A	NAI
128	D1	128	Straw	Answers Shard of Reading re C1	N/A	NAI
129	D1	129	Shard of Reading	Asks for explanation without acronyms	N/A	NAI
130	D1	130	God King	Gets very defensive at Straw's challenge. Says they can't contribute to analysis.	Felt like genuine feeling wrt Straw. Probably not both evil.	Unsure
131	D1	131	Kynedath	Explains acronyms	N/A	NAI
132	D1	132	God King	Explains length of cycles	N/A	NAI
133	D1	133	Straw	Explains acronyms	N/A	NAI
134	D1	134	Matrim	Asks Silberfarben and Dot for reads as they have RPed but not posted	Sensible request	NAI
135	D1	135	Shard of Reading	Votes to lynch the God King for trying to "stall"	What does he mean by stalling? God King almost our worst possible lynch.	Mild evil
136	D1	136	Striker	Agrees with Straw re infolynch.	N/A	NAI
137	D1	137	God King	Seems bitter about Shard's response	Unlikely Shard and God King on a team. If evil would be trying harder to stay alive?	Mild village
138	D1	138	Shard of Reading	Asks people not to read too much into his vote.	Deep gut feeling against this.	Moderate to strong evil
139	D1	139	DeTess	Points out God King flying under radar, can't complain about lynch votes.	N/A	NAI
140	D1	140	Matrim	Clarifies Shard's meaning re "moving"	Siblings?	NAI
141	D1	141	Shard of Reading	Complains about having to think.	Gut evil	Moderate evil.
142	D1	142	God King	Has no analysis, didn't want to post.	Anyone can analyse.	Unsure
143	D1	143	Matrim	Reading NAI on God King	None	NAI
144	D1	144	DeTess	Thinks God King likely non-elim given motive. Asks God King to contribute later.	Agree strongly	Moderate/strong village
145	D1	145	Straw	Encourages GOd King to be active	N/A	NAI
146	D1	146	Emi	Votes on Kynedath	No rationale, probably villager	Mild village	Kynedath
147	D1	147	Kynedath	Asks why Emi voted on them	N/A	NAI
148	D1	148	Emi	Voted on Kynedath because it was "all too good"	Unsure what they mean. Potential liability in late game even if village?	NAI
149	D1	149	Kynedath	Asks for explanation from Emi	N/A	NAI
150	D1	150	Emi	Misunderstands Kynedath	N/A	NAI
151	D1	151	Straw	Also asks for Emi's reason for their vote	Seems clear enough that Emi is confused. Wanting to seem active/helpful?	NAI
152	D1	152	Emi	Says vote on Kynedath just felt right. Apologises.	Feels like no ulterior motives here. Young?	Mild village
153	D1	153	Kynedath	Asks Emi to retract vote and place it elsewhere if they have any other suspicions	N/A	NAI
154	D1	154	Straw	Gives Emi benefit of the doubt	Only sensible answer here	NAI
155	D1	155	Pyro	Thinks Emi suspicious. Retracts Elkanah, votes on Emi. Thinks Orlok suspicious.	Disagree vehemently re Emi.	Strong evil	Emi	Elkanah
156	D1	156	Emi	Says they will retract their vote	Needs to read rules again	Moderate village
157	D1	157	Kynedath	Explains retraction mechanic to Emi	Remarkably tolerant.	NAI
158	D1	158	Emi	Says they will reread thread then vote again	N/A	NAI
159	D1	159	Pyro	Says Emi clearly doesn't have any other reads	Give the new player some leeway! Thinks Emi an easy lynch?	Mild evil
160	D1	160	Emi	Says they are still learning	Genuine	Mild village
161	D1	161	Pyro	Says voting for Emi to be more aggressive	Be more aggressive when you have good reason, not to get an easy lynch.	Mild evil
162	D1	162	Karnage	Asks if people saw his post	N/A	NAI
163	D1	163	Straw	Provides vote count	N/A	NAI
164	D1	164	Striker	Votes on Karnage as logic in posts feels weird. DOesn't like how Karnage feels Sart and Araris in alignment.	Agree that Sart and Araris not bound together.	Unsure	Karnage
165	D1	165	Emi	Says they agree with Striker, ask how they change their vote	Looking for easy alternative?	Mild evil
166	D1	166	Matrim	Corrects Straw's vote count	N/A	NAI
167	D1	167	Straw	Explains to Emi how to change vote. Says Orlok, Wilson, Sart have been quiet. Thinks Orlok writing a long post.	Doesn't make any analysis - just comments that they have been quiet.	NAI
168	D1	168	Matrim	Not sure why people voting om Karnage	To be honest, I don't really see it either. Karnage just feels like a blind spot to me	Unsure
169	D1	169	Shard of Reading	Further corrects Straw's vote count	N/A	NAI
170	D1	170	DeTess	Heading off for the night and possibly cycle	N/A	NAI
171	D1	171	Straw	Asks DeTess for last minute reads	N/A	NAI
172	D1	172	Karnage	Voted on Sart because thinks Sart and Araris teammates, and so evil. Araris has no posts.	Logical enough, even if I disagree. Don't see evil read from this.	Mild village
173	D1	173	Emi	Retracts Kynedath, votes Karnage	Bandwagoning	Mild evil	Karnage	Kynedath
174	D1	174	Araris	Poke votes useless. Addresses Karnage's suspicion of him.	Sensible enough riposte. Agree on poke votes.	Mild village
175	D1	175	Striker	Explains suspicion of Karnage comes from Karnage's post attacking Sart and Araris	Feels genuine	Mild village
176	D1	176	Karnage	Suggests bandwagons better in the second half of the cycle. Reaffirms belief that Araris and Sart are teammates.	Disagree on both.	NAI
177	D1	177	Pyro	Finds inconsistency in Karnage's views on poke votes. Retracts Emi, votes Karnage	Good observation. Agree that probably trying to save themselves. Don't think that is alignment indicative here.	NAI	Karnage	Emi
178	D1	178	Emi	Says Karnage going to be eliminated	N/A	NAI
179	D1	179	Straw	Responds to Emi	N/A	NAI
180	D1	180	Matrim	Asks for vote count	N/A	NAI
181	D1	181	Karnage	Thinks he has been consistent. Thinks Sart, Araris, Striker and Pyro on a team. Accepting of death.	Disagree re team. Don't get evil gut read here	Unsure
182	D1	182	Archivist	Gut village on Straw, gut eliminator on God King and Sart	None	Unsure
183	D1	183	Orlok	Large post #1	Needs to go to bed.	Village	Pyro	Straw

 

Summary, given none of you read that:

Strong elim reads on:
Pyro
Shard of Reading (worst post for me being #117).

Milder elim reads on:
Straw (see connections to Shard of Reading, Coda, BR
BR (see connections to Pyro, Straw)

Coda

Mild village reads:
Wilson
Araris
Sart

Village reads:
Matrim
Emi
Kynedath
DeTess
God King

 

I'm going to remove my vote from Pyro, although I am convinced he is evil, and return my vote to Straw. For me, there is too much of a connection going on around Straw, with new players coming out of nowhere to defend him with arguments that read to me only as fabrication. I think the attempted lynch on God King by a number of players involved in this circle was opportunism. Lynching Straw, for me, gives very high quality information on a set of players I am suspicious of.

[The Young Pyromancer]

6 minutes ago, Sart said:

Suspect Straw (5): Wilson, Orlok, Young Pyromancer, Furamirionind, Sart

Check again. I don't know about the rest of your list, but I'm actually neutral on straw. Yeah, he was after me for a bit, but he actually explained what he wanted me to do. He's been consistent, which is my big concern with Karnage, and he's explained what he wants me to do instead of just saying he's suspicious of me, unlike Orlok. He's good enough that it could all be fake, and there are some other problems with him, but right now lots of others are worse IMO.

[Straw]

9 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Anyone who comments on this to me gets a prize.

Prize, please! 

[The Young Pyromancer]

13 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Good observation.

Thanks.

Also, for people who don't get the joke, 108 is the 'arbitrary number' in japan, which doesn't have a good cultural equivalent here. Think like 13, except neutral instead of unlucky.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Rust and Ruin, you guys made it to page 10!

Just now, little wilson said:

joeeeee dost thou have an officially count of the stabby stabs?

i dont actually. i dont make one until about 2 hours before the end of the cycle, when i start to work on the writeup.

[The_God_King]

After going through the last couple posts and making some small comments on a couple of people's posts the Gods of Luck and Chance reverted my editor to a previous comment that was borderline insanity, so here's my somewhat sane comments.

For analysis on this cycle. I feel both the vote for Straw and Sart are off. I haven't seen any real reasons but it's cycle one so the data from either of them dying could keep us going for a couple cycles. Karnage seems like a traditional bandwagon of opportunity.  

[The Young Pyromancer]

5 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

After going through the last couple posts and making some small comments on a couple of people's posts the Gods of Luck and Chance reverted my editor to a previous comment that was borderline insanity, so here's my somewhat sane comments.

For analysis on this cycle. I feel both the vote for Straw and Sart are off. I haven't seen any real reasons but it's cycle one so the data from either of them dying could keep us going for a couple cycles. Karnage seems like a traditional bandwagon of opportunity.  

I like how your post just repeats stuff that other people have said. Several people think Karnage is fishy, and Straw and Sart are two other frontrunners currently. Your post is just trying to blend in by restating popular opinions, which is a very suspicious tactic for someone not under a lot of pressure.

[Shard of Reading]

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Shard of Reading (worst post for me being #117).

So, in my defense I made my statements off the assumption that this would be like regular mafia and that first round lynchings are made with almost no information provided but I had no idea how much you would be able to read into from posts. The statements I made were made off of previous experience of IRL mafia and I did not realize how inaccurate they would be in this type of game.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Just now, Mist said:

Araris 

I don't understand. Was that an attempted tag?

[Mist]

That was quite a post, Orlok. 9/10 would read. On post 62, you say that Pyro self-votes. 

@Dot, @Lord_Silberfarben, care to share game thoughts?

@Hammond42, care to speak?

Sorry for the false post. I tried indenting, ended up switching to the submit button, and tried to create a new row, submitting my incomplete response.

Analysis to follow (tomorrow, C2, assuming I survive) .

Edited May 27, 2020 by Mist

[Shard of Reading]

Could I get a vote count?

[The_God_King]

8 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I like how your post just repeats stuff that other people have said. Several people think Karnage is fishy, and Straw and Sart are two other frontrunners currently. Your post is just trying to blend in by restating popular opinions, which is a very suspicious tactic for someone not under a lot of pressure.

While my opinions aren't alone I haven't gotten a good answer on why anyone would lynch them. I'm having trouble reading what your intentions are outside of trying to support all three lynches which is a move an elim might do to try to connect with as many villagers as they can.  

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Clarifies Shard's meaning re "moving"          Siblings?

I laughed aloud when I saw this

He just has posted that he does this in the non-forum mafia game, that's how I know.

---

I'm signing off for the night, won't be back until next cycle. Leaving my vote on Sart, though his most recent post (albeit it was awhile ago) lessens my suspicions of him.

Vote count:

• Sart(4): Xino, Arraenae, Karnage, Matrim's Dice
• Straw (3): Wilson, Fura, Orlok 
• Karnage (5): Araris, StrikerEZ, Emi, Pyro, Sart 
• The God King (3): Experience, Shard of Reading, The_Archivist 
• Furamirionind (2): DeTess, Straw                                         
• Matrim’s_Dice (1): Hemalurgic Headshot

I still don't understand why Karnage is getting lynched, to be honest. Or why people are suspicious of Straw. Both seem driven by the idea of 'day 1 lynch' which isn't a bad idea, in no way, but I think it should be smartly done. I am more suspicious, now after re-reading some of the pages, of Emi. The brief Kynedath lynch attempt seemed random and her vote change to Karnage seemed driven by Striker more then it seemed like a conscious decision, to me at least. 

I don't know. I didn't expect 230+ posts in the first cycle of my first game. I'm leaving my vote on Sart because it would have absolutely no effect moved over to Emi.

See y'all tomorrow 

[StrikerEZ]

@Shard of Reading This should be accurate:

Sart(4): Xino, Arraenae, Karnage, Matrim's Dice,
Straw (3): Wilson, Fura, Orlok,
Karnage (5): Araris, StrikerEZ, Emi, Pyro, Sart,
The God King (3): Experience, Shard of Reading, The_Archivist,
Furamirionind (2): DeTess, Straw,                                        
Matrim’s_Dice (1): Hemalurgic Headshot,

Oof, got ninja'd.

Edited May 27, 2020 by StrikerEZ

[BrightnessRadiant]

Oh geez...I knew this would happen if I was busy all day. I have about 2 hours to catch up before I'm busy again for the evening. Let's see what I can do in that time. The lynch looks insanely close with that vote update. Thanks Striker by the way. Will try and do my best to catch up and be back.

[The Young Pyromancer]

22 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

While my opinions aren't alone I haven't gotten a good answer on why anyone would lynch them. I'm having trouble reading what your intentions are outside of trying to support all three lynches which is a move an elim might do to try to connect with as many villagers as they can.  

I don't support all three lynches, and Karnage's back and forth has discussed several times. Even Orlok acknowledges that there's a point to it, as viewed in his review of post #177. He states that I made a good observation, though that doesn't make me more or less likely to be a Constable in that particular case. I have also stated several times that while I'm slightly suspicious of Straw, I am against lynching active voters early for a variety of reasons, and several other people are more suspicious than he. I have not posted any thoughts on the Sart lynch that I can recall, and I have said that some of TGK's stuff was shifty. That's one of three.