Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Furamirionind]

Just now, Straw said:

What in this indicates that I'm elim? You only mentioned that you agreed with Orlok on infolynching, but didn't mention me at all otherwise. For such a long post, this has remarkably little thought put into it. Care to elaborate?

sigh

That was because I was ninja'd a bunch. I don't know the vote count, but I know the lynch is something between you and Karnage right now. I don't like how Karnage got so many votes so quickly, so I'm getting off his lynch. If someone wants to give me a vote count, that would be appreciated. =)

[Mat]

@Furamirionind

Currently up for lynch (I believe):

Sart (4): Xino, Arraenae, Matrim, Karnage

Karnage (4): Striker, Pyro, Araris, Emi

Straw has 3 votes right now. You, Wilson, and Sart

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Furamirionind]

Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

@Furamirionind

Currently up for lynch:

Sart (4): Xino, Arraenae, Matrim, Karnage

Karnage (4): Striker, Pyro, Araris, Emi

Straw has 3 votes right now. You, Wilson, and Sart

 

Great, so three people in danger of the lynch.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

@Furamirionind

Currently up for lynch (I believe):

Sart (4): Xino, Arraenae, Matrim, Karnage

Karnage (4): Striker, Pyro, Araris, Emi

Straw has 3 votes right now. You, Wilson, and Sart

 

For the record, I remain suspicious of Straw, and will return my vote to him should people disagree with me re Pyro. I will summarise my thoughts on him later, but suggest you read the relevant lines of my larger post.

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

For the record, I remain suspicious of Straw, and will return my vote to him should people disagree with me re Pyro. I will summarise my thoughts on him later, but suggest you read the relevant lines of my larger post.

Does Pyro have any votes?

I'd check but I'm color blind and doing other stuff at the same time. xD
 

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Does Pyro have any votes?

I'd check but I'm color blind and doing other stuff at the same time. xD
 

Just Orlok, I think

Also: 12 hours until the end of the cycle

Edited May 26, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[The Young Pyromancer]

16 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

It seems that the lynch is shifting to Karnage though, which I don't like. I voted on him as a joke, but why is everyone else moving to him?

Karnage's posts seem like they're just saying whatever they need to for the moment, not justifying themselves, but coming up with excuses for their contradictions after the fact.

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Does Pyro have any votes?

I'd check but I'm color blind and doing other stuff at the same time. xD
 

Just Orlok I think.

[The_Archivist]

Sart(4): Xino, Arraenae, Karnage, Matrim's Dice
Straw (3): Wilson, Sart, Fura
Karnage (4): Araris, StrikerEZ, Emi, Pyro
The God King (3): Experience, Shard of Reading, The_Archivist
Furamirionind (1): DeTess
Xino (1): Straw                                        Pyro (1): Orlok

As far as I can tell, this is the updated vote count. I vote for The_God_King.

[A Joe in the Bush]

There's just under 12 hours left in this Turn, and I am astounded by the level of activity. Good job guys!

[Furamirionind]

Oh, I thought with all the votes we must be seconds away from rollover. xD

[StrikerEZ]

I was about to post a vote count myself, but it seems like Archivist has beaten me to it. I got the same vote count that he did, so that's probably accurate.

@Furamirionind I explained my vote for Karnage earlier, but I'll summarize it real quick: I feel like Karnage isn't trying to vote on anyone he finds suspicious, just trying to vote on someone who he thinks will get lynched. While that's a valid strategy, it's usually best to back something like that up with suspicions, so you're not just blindly following the whims of bandwagons. I'm also not a fan of him linking Sart and Araris together so much. I don't really see the connections he sees between those two, and it seems like he's trying to set up the lynch on Sart to either frame or clear Araris (depending on how Sart flips). 

As for Emi and Pyro's votes, I don't like how they both hopped onto the bandwagon as soon as I voted for Karnage. At least Pyro's given some thoughts of his own about why he wants to lynch Karnage. @Emi Why do you want to lynch Karnage?

Just now, Furamirionind said:

Oh, I thought with all the votes we must be seconds away from rollover. xD

Honestly, I'm amazed at how much activity we have going on right now. Over 200 posts in just the first cycle of this game. That's almost a third of the posts the LG I ran last summer had, and that game had a lot of activity.

[The Young Pyromancer]

6 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Emi Why do you want to lynch Karnage?

I don't think they trust in their analysis enough, and so are just going with what more experienced players say are the right things to do. I did that in one of my earliest games. I'm suspicious of them too, but Karnage's worse, and more likely to generate some information on death. If they're an elim, maybe the whole 'team' thing could have been an attempt to connect Sart and Xilo because Sart was getting voted on and they wanted to make Xilo look innocent/guilty (depending on which way Sart flipped). That's the only real explanation for their actions I can think of.

[Straw]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

sigh

That was because I was ninja'd a bunch. I don't know the vote count, but I know the lynch is something between you and Karnage right now. I don't like how Karnage got so many votes so quickly, so I'm getting off his lynch. If someone wants to give me a vote count, that would be appreciated. =)

So, you're hopping off his vote train onto mine? What's your reasoning for voting on me? What makes me a better lynch? I'm not sure what your logic for this is supposed to be.

24 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

88 D1 88 Straw Replies to Araris, says he has given thoughts on players. Gives further reads. Kynedath village for helping players. HH elim read due to waffle. NAI on Coda. Araris suspicious. Wilson suspiciousish. Then says "Araris posted?" Moves vote to Xino. Great that giving reads. V useful. Araris read then question whether they've posted v. odd. Ask about this. Unsure but useful Xino Araris

I wrote the post, got to Matrim's Araris question, went and found Araris's post, and then decided to add that to the reads. My quote posts aren't always written chronologically. Sorry if it was confusing. This reminded me, Xino posted some thoughts, so I'll move to Fura in hopes of a fast response.

36 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

95 D1 95 God King Says he is lurking. Terrible strategy. That he's admitting to it is less likely if evil. Mild village  

Agreed on this. I forgot to mention it earlier, but I'm probably going to be fairly suspicious of anyone who really tries to go after him for stuff like this. I might be biased since I was a serial killer in LG64 and got him mislynched.

40 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

11 D1 11 Matrim Asks how many eliminators there normally are. Suggests 3/1 ratio. Unsure. Genuine question or attempt to appear as confused villager. Unsure.  

6 D1 6 Emi Asks if we are playing in this thread Eliminator with so little knowledge would ask elim doc Moderate village read  
15 D1 15 Emi Apologises for asking questions, asks what we are meant to do. Genuine uncertainty Moderate village read  
16 D1 16 Matrim Says also wondering what to do. Thinks first cycle about gut reads and waiting for mistakes. Jokes about being a villager. Thinks eliminators will bandwagon because they have a doc. Some village, some evil. Think naivity around bandwagon suggests possible non-eliminator. Mild village read  
25 D1 25 Emi Says Xino's post contains a lot of information. Again, feels genuine Mild village  
65 D1 65 Matrim Asks if he can PM Joe whenever Seems genuine confusion Strong village
75 D1 75 Matrim Asks what NAI means Would probably be asked in elim doc if in one Mild village  
93 D1 93 Matrim Village read Straw for honest contributions. Village reads Pyro. Slight elim reads on Sart and Araris. Elim read on Elkanah for joke. Xino gut village. Still poke voting Archivist Elim read on Elkanah odd. Misunderstanding of game makes me think doesn't have a team. Mild village 

Meh, I disagree with reading that much into new player confusion, since as you noted in #11, it can be faked. For the first Emi post especially I would read that as NAI since an elim might still ask in the thread to get a faster response. I feel like you're overstating many of these things.

BTW, I village read Matrim as well based on gut, and read Emi as NAI right now (Kyndath and Karnage votes cancel out confusion goodwill IMO).

40 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

35 D1 35 Straw Asks why Wilson has bad gut read against Karnage and himself. Says Xino's post bothers him. Makes sensible point re Xino - agree. Yet keeps poke vote and doesn't vote based on what botehrs him? Unsure.  

I changed my vote to Xino later. I wanted to give him time to make a post, since I think an initial rules analysis post or whatever is NAI.

23 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I was assured this would work. Forgive me if it doesn't. Up to the beginning of page five so far, but wanted to post what I had before finishing. Conclusions and links to follow when I've caught up, but for now, Straw, Pyro.

Edit - appears I was lied to. Still, it has kept lines separate - you'll have to do your best to interpret it.

You just can't copy and paste correctly.  Good luck catching up with how fast the thread is going!

I have a few more questions, but I'll wait for now. They'll probably be answered in your larger post.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

10 minutes ago, Straw said:

Meh, I disagree with reading that much into new player confusion, since as you noted in #11, it can be faked. For the first Emi post especially I would read that as NAI since an elim might still ask in the thread to get a faster response. I feel like you're overstating many of these things.

BTW, I village read Matrim as well based on gut, and read Emi as NAI right now (Kyndath and Karnage votes cancel out confusion goodwill IMO).

I changed my vote to Xino later. I wanted to give him time to make a post, since I think an initial rules analysis post or whatever is NAI.

You just can't copy and paste correctly.  Good luck catching up with how fast the thread is going!

I have a few more questions, but I'll wait for now. They'll probably be answered in your larger post.

Next post will be in a couple of hours at least. I'm shortly to make myself supper, and as you can imagine, taking these notes is a time consuming process.

With regards to your views on new player confusion, I agree that it can be faked, absolutely. I'm not sure that it can be faked well easily. This is where judgement and gut come in, I suppose, and my judgement tells me that the confusion from the two of them was genuine.

[Shard of Reading]

20 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Next post will be in a couple of hours at least. I'm shortly to make myself supper, and as you can imagine, taking these notes is a time consuming process.

With regards to your views on new player confusion, I agree that it can be faked, absolutely. I'm not sure that it can be faked well easily. This is where judgement and gut come in, I suppose, and my judgement tells me that the confusion from the two of them was genuine.

I agree with you on that. Unless they have been watching sanderson elimination for a while I do not think that they will be able to do it very easily.

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

I agree with you on that. Unless they have been watching sanderson elimination for a while I do not think that they will be able to do it very easily.

Said by a new player. I am too, though.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[The Young Pyromancer]

5 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

I agree with you on that. Unless they have been watching sanderson elimination for a while I do not think that they will be able to do it very easily.

I mean, my first game I tricked several people into seriously analyzing whether I was an alt account made by an older player, so if that's doable, then the reverse should be possible as well.

[little wilson]

2 hours ago, Straw said:

Yes. Just put your last vote in green and your new one in red.

It's interesting how @Orlok Tsubodai, @little wilson, and @Sart have all been rather quiet lately. Orlok talked about infolynching with me, but hasn't really replied to me on his read of me. I feel like he's going to drop a giant post or something. Wilson put a gut vote on me and didn't elaborate. She also explained her whole tone thing. Sart just dropped a weird bandwagony vote on me and left.

Okay, I'll update. I think one of the TGK people did switch their vote.

tbf ive been at work and dont really want to post from my phone cuz my phone is dummm (or is it smart?) and changes my lowercase i to uppercase and puts air commas (aka apostrophes) into my words without my permission. dumm phone. stop doing that.

however im posting from my phone now so you special straw. :)))

i cant elaborate because its a gut read. i would elaborate if i could but the whole point of gut reads imo is that you just feel something is off.

if you could explain it it wouldnt be gut. make sense?

that said i dont feel terribly strongly about your lynch since my gut read is only mild bad - you know like when you just have a bit of indigestion but you can live with it yeah? - and as others have said youve been contributing a lot so killing a very active player for info when there are other options might not be the best choice.

i shall think on this and when im off work ill take a quick looksee through the thread to decide if i will change my vote/who i will change it to.

not a fan of karnage's stuff against araris there. vote might go there. we see. in a few hours.

[Straw]

I just noticed that whenever Orlok talks about wilson in his reads, he puts it in all lowercase. That's hilarious. 

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

I haven't said much because I remember now that I'm frankly poor at analysis. Often, I can make up for that with RP, but in this game, and especially C1, my flowery prose cannot help me. 

About my "waffling": in all my time as an SE player, I still haven't surmounted the D1 lynch question. Even now. I see both sides of the issue, but I can't come to a firm personal conclusion that I'll take to every game. Of course, now that there are a handful of lynch candidates being pushed, a discussion on why not to have a lynch is futile (though we could still pull it off).

Let's have a look at the lynch then:

Four players have met the three vote minimum: Sart (4), Straw (3), Karnage (4), and TGK (3). The almighty Joe has said that ties result in both parties killed. With this in mind, it would be possible to have a 4-way tie. That gives us a potential for 6 deaths C1 (that might be a record...). I don't like that number; I think it is too high. So, I think we need to consolidate our votes, or else we'll end up with a mountain of corpses. 

Of the 4 candidates here, I don't feel strongly about any of them. Sart doesn't really give me any bad vibes. Straw has been an amazing contributor, and so I would hate to lose them so early. Karnage's posts have been hit-and-miss, but that is mostly a gut read. Finally, TGK is a new player, and I don't have a good feel for them yet. Thus, I have no conclusions.

I'll put my vote where it won't do much damage. Matrim's Dice, though your posts have been largely NAI, I have an off gut read about you.

[The Young Pyromancer]

So I've been thinking, and I had an idea.

This is for all the extortionists out there. When you extort somebody, target the constable kill action. As only one elim can perform the kill, and this ability FORCES the player to use that action, it might cancel out the original kill for the new one. So, if you go around redirecting people to others the village is suspicious of, you might be able to control the night kill and make it hit someone that doesn't make us lose as much when they die. Then, if we keep that elim alive, we can mostly control both the night and day kills (excluding bleeder and barkeeps), thus winning the game. However, this might not work if the elims have an extortionist as well, since I don't know how multiple redirects interact. @A Joe in the Bush, could you please tell me how this would work?

[A Joe in the Bush]

I sure can.

A Few things about the Extortionist Role, if an Extortionist targets Player A and tells them to Player B, I do three things:

1) I check if Player A can legally take that action. If so, they use that action to target player B.
2) If they can't, I check if they are taking a different action. If so, they use that action on player B.
3) If they aren't taking an action, I see if they have any actions available for them to take. They choose one at random and use it.

In your scenario, you are having Extortionist Carol tell Constable Adam to target random player Bob. I would have to check if Adam can legally perform the Constable kill. If Constable Dave is already performing the Constable kill, then that action is spoken for, and Adam can't use it. The only way you would be able to redirect the Constable's kill is if you found the constable who was already doing the kill.

If Two or more Extortionists target the same player, and give them contradictory orders, I will flip a coin to determine which one takes precedence. If an Extortionist tries to make a player take an illegal action, they will not be told they failed. The only feedback an Extortionist will get is if they get roleblocked.

[Straw]

24 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I haven't said much because I remember now that I'm frankly poor at analysis. Often, I can make up for that with RP, but in this game, and especially C1, my flowery prose cannot help me. 

About my "waffling": in all my time as an SE player, I still haven't surmounted the D1 lynch question. Even now. I see both sides of the issue, but I can't come to a firm personal conclusion that I'll take to every game. Of course, now that there are a handful of lynch candidates being pushed, a discussion on why not to have a lynch is futile (though we could still pull it off).

Let's have a look at the lynch then:

Four players have met the three vote minimum: Sart (4), Straw (3), Karnage (4), and TGK (3). The almighty Joe has said that ties result in both parties killed. With this in mind, it would be possible to have a 4-way tie. That gives us a potential for 6 deaths C1 (that might be a record...). I don't like that number; I think it is too high. So, I think we need to consolidate our votes, or else we'll end up with a mountain of corpses. 

Of the 4 candidates here, I don't feel strongly about any of them. Sart doesn't really give me any bad vibes. Straw has been an amazing contributor, and so I would hate to lose them so early. Karnage's posts have been hit-and-miss, but that is mostly a gut read. Finally, TGK is a new player, and I don't have a good feel for them yet. Thus, I have no conclusions.

I'll put my vote where it won't do much damage. Matrim's Dice, though your posts have been largely NAI, I have an off gut read about you.

I cannot see a single positive reason to not have a D1 lynch, and I'm not even going to touch that line of discussion. No matter what, I want there to be a lynch so we can have information to work off of tommorow.

@A Joe in the Bush does the "both parties will be lynched" thing for tied votes also apply to larger ties, or will you randomly pick two?

It's odd that you want to put your vote where it "won't do much damage". That feels like an excuse to not actually contribute. You also say that you don't feel strongly about any of the lynches, which is interesting. Maybe take a closer look at them? They'll definitely be important for analysis tomorrow.

Care to elaborate more on your read of Matrim? I've been reading them as village, and I'm curious to hear what about them set you off.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Just now, Straw said:

@A Joe in the Bush does the "both parties will be lynched" thing for tied votes also apply to larger ties, or will you randomly pick two?

All parties will be lynched. If no one votes, then everyone gets lynched.

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

All parties will be lynched. If no one votes, then everyone gets lynched.

Assuming no one had extra lives remaining, who would win in that case?