Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[StrikerEZ]

I’m gonna go ahead and throw a vote on Karnage. The logic in his posts just feels weird to me. I don’t quite get why he ended up voting on Sart and seems so certain his alignment is linked with Araris’s alignment. In addition, I’m a fan of getting more people up to possibly be lynched. Gets people talking, either to defend someone or to jump on a bandwagon and get a villager lynched. 

[Emi]

3 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I’m gonna go ahead and throw a vote on Karnage. The logic in his posts just feels weird to me. I don’t quite get why he ended up voting on Sart and seems so certain his alignment is linked with Araris’s alignment. In addition, I’m a fan of getting more people up to possibly be lynched. Gets people talking, either to defend someone or to jump on a bandwagon and get a villager lynched. 

Yeah, I would agree with this one. Can I change my vote?

[Mat]

@Straw, I changed my vote from Archivist to Sart this morning, and I thought TGK had two votes against him, though one might have gotten retracted 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Straw]

1 minute ago, Emi said:

Yeah, I would agree with this one. Can I change my vote?

Yes. Just put your last vote in green and your new one in red.

It's interesting how @Orlok Tsubodai, @little wilson, and @Sart have all been rather quiet lately. Orlok talked about infolynching with me, but hasn't really replied to me on his read of me. I feel like he's going to drop a giant post or something. Wilson put a gut vote on me and didn't elaborate. She also explained her whole tone thing. Sart just dropped a weird bandwagony vote on me and left.

1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

@Straw, I changed my vote from Archivist to Sart this morning, and I thought TGK had two votes against him, though one might have gotten retracted 

Okay, I'll update. I think one of the TGK people did switch their vote.

[Mat]

Also I'm not quite sure why everyone is against Karnage. @StrikerEZ, @Furamirionind, @Araris Valerian, care to explain why? (I could go back and read his posts but I don't feel like it) 

[Shard of Reading]

Also @Straw I voted for the god king

[DeTess]

Just a quick FYI: I'm about to check out for the day, and there's a decent chance I won't be around before turnover.

[Straw]

1 minute ago, DeTess said:

Just a quick FYI: I'm about to check out for the day, and there's a decent chance I won't be around before turnover.

Any last minute thoughts or reads you want to share?

[Karnage]

The reason why I decided to vote on Sart is because Araris doesn't already have a vote on them, therefore will not be very likely to get lynched this round. Like I said in my post I found that the reasoning being their posts makes more sense if Sart and Araris are teammates. Since Sart already had (I think) two votes, I was thinking that if Sart turns out to be Elim (along with all the other reasons why others think they are elim) than Araris seems even more suspicious. 

[Emi]

25 minutes ago, Straw said:

Yes. Just put your last vote in green and your new one in red.

Ok. Kynedath, you are free now and I wote for Karnage!

[Araris Valerian]

5 hours ago, Karnage said:

@Araris Valerian So you are perfectly fine with joining a bandwagon but not with poke voting. Interesting. To me this kinda seems like I am missing something in the equation that would make this make sense. But, I do not think I am. I believe this is very incongruous. Not that by itself it is suspicious. By its self I find it NAI but...

If Sart is elim and you are too, then this might make sense. It seems to me like poke voting and bandwagon are mutually fair game if one person like one then they will probably like the other. But from these statements you are putting a vote on someone that is poke voting but then later turn around to defend someone you haven't even had contact with in the thread, for being a bandwagon. This kinda screams (or at least by my logic) that you two are both elims and you were trying to defend a fellow elim.

But, you don't have any votes so I will redact my vote on TGK and put it on Sart because if he gets lynched then you will look pretty guilty to everyone else.

If this doesn't make any sense that please respond!!!!!!!! And tell me well my logic went astray.

-Karnage

The thing is, poke votes are entirely useless, especially with a 3-vote minimum this first cycle. I’ve said this before in other games, but I think as a community our C1 votes should be a bit more “stabby” rather than “pokey”. 

Also, there’s a little more depth to the scenario than you give it credit for. Certainly there is some interaction between Sart and myself here. However, as I’ve already mentioned, we have very little to go off of C1, so just because I find you a better lynch target than Sart doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t be fine lynching Sart tomorrow, if I felt it necessary. In point of fact, I also am mildly suspicious of Sart for voting on Straw, since Straw’s village play style has been noted several times in last games as setting off people’s gut reads.

I’m also going to look for somewhere new for my vote, since it doesn’t seem like enough of the thread is engaging in these two wagons for them to be super useful.

[StrikerEZ]

5 hours ago, Karnage said:

@Araris Valerian So you are perfectly fine with joining a bandwagon but not with poke voting. Interesting. To me this kinda seems like I am missing something in the equation that would make this make sense. But, I do not think I am. I believe this is very incongruous. Not that by itself it is suspicious. By its self I find it NAI but...

If Sart is elim and you are too, then this might make sense. It seems to me like poke voting and bandwagon are mutually fair game if one person like one then they will probably like the other. But from these statements you are putting a vote on someone that is poke voting but then later turn around to defend someone you haven't even had contact with in the thread, for being a bandwagon. This kinda screams (or at least by my logic) that you two are both elims and you were trying to defend a fellow elim.

But, you don't have any votes so I will redact my vote on TGK and put it on Sart because if he gets lynched then you will look pretty guilty to everyone else.

If this doesn't make any sense that please respond!!!!!!!! And tell me well my logic went astray.

-Karnage

This is the post that set me off. Araris made it pretty clear that the reason he was "bandwagoning" was because of the 3 vote minimum for the lynch this cycle. While I don't necessarily agree with Araris's reasoning (I think it is possible to avoid needlessly bandwagoning, even despite the high vote minimum for a lynch), I think Araris did a pretty good job of explaining his reasons. What really set me off though was the fact that Karnage went through a whole two paragraphs of saying why he doesn't trust Araris and then decides to vote Sart because he can't get Araris lynched. First off all, I don't understand why he's linked Sart and Araris like he has, and also, why not vote where your suspicions are? Isn't voting for Sart also bandwagoning, like you claim Araris is doing? Voting on someone you're actually suspicious of, even if it doesn't seem like a lynch could form on them yet, is much better than voting on someone that you think is going to get lynched. To me, it just seems like Karnage was trying to throw shade at Araris, but didn't want to put a vote there because he'd rather guarantee a lynch somewhere else.

[Karnage]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The thing is, poke votes are entirely useless, especially with a 3-vote minimum this first cycle. I’ve said this before in other games, but I think as a community our C1 votes should be a bit more “stabby” rather than “pokey”. 

Why stab with nothing to go off of in the first half of C1? Why not get some discussion going (with poke votes) then use the later half of the cycle to stab based off of more context? I don't think we need to bandwagon right of the gate, why not have some reason for it. 

-Also I disagree poke votes aren't useless, first its starts friction between two people. Things start to move, then once everyone is discussing you can actually "stab" vote someone.

11 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Sart because he can't get Araris lynched.

Like I said before, what would be the point of voting Araris if nothing is going to happen. There was already a train starting on Sart, if Sart turns out to be elim then that points towards Araris being elim as well. 

My claim is not against Araris joining a bandwagon, my claim is that Araris's actions are incongruous. Why completely against  poke votes but defend someone for bandwagoning. 

I don't mind the bandwagon.

11 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

To me, it just seems like Karnage was trying to throw shade at Araris, but didn't want to put a vote there because he'd rather guarantee a lynch somewhere else.

Thats exactly right, there no point on putting a vote on someone unless there is a good chance at getting them lynched. Sart was already on the block so therefore if they die and show their elim then that proves the shade on Araris.

@StrikerEZ

@Araris Valerian

Edited May 26, 2020 by Karnage

[The Young Pyromancer]

16 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Thats exactly right, there no point on putting a vote on someone unless there is a good chance at getting them lynched

And yet you were just talking about how Poke Votes are useful.

Emi Karnage.

It feels like you're just saying whatever'll keep you alive longer, not caring about remaining consistent or having an actual point.

[Emi]

Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

And yet you were just talking about how Poke Votes are useful.

Emi Karnage.

It feels like you're just saying whatever'll keep you alive longer, not caring about remaining consistent or having an actual point.

Poor Karnage, looks like he will be eliminated really fast

[Straw]

Just now, Emi said:

Poor Karnage, looks like he will be eliminated really fast

Well, we do want to have a lynch every day we can. Someone has to get lynched, after all. I'm not sure how I feel about the Karnage lynch. I'll have to go back and look at his posts more.

[Mat]

Can someone put out a vote count? I missed the last hour, haven't been keeping track and it seems like a lot has happened.

[Karnage]

8 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

26 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Thats exactly right, there no point on putting a vote on someone unless there is a good chance at getting them lynched

And yet you were just talking about how Poke Votes are useful.

I said that Poke votes are useful in the beginning, but towards the end of the cycle based of the content of the thread there is not a point to poke voting.  

I feel as if I have a point, and yes I do think I am being consistent from my point of view. 

If I die, I cannot wait to see if my logic works and Araris and Sart along with possibly Stryker and Pyro being elims. I guess that no matter what a role is revealed, and if I die then you all will see that others are more suspicious than me. 

My guess is that there are a few villagers along with a few elims that have votes on me not all on one side.

Anyone know when the cycle ends?

Edited May 26, 2020 by Karnage

[The_Archivist]

Okay, I finally went through the five pages I missed today, and I have some analysis.

xino: From what I saw of his playstyle, it's pretty common for him to comment mostly on the rules, especially C1. I find that NAI.

Straw: I don't think we should lynch someone when our only reason is that they are very active. If you suspect him, that's fine, but doing it for that alone seems a little cruel. On the logical side of things, it makes far more sense to vote on people you're actually suspicious of. Gut villager read.

Sart: I find his vote on Straw the most suspicious and based on faulty reasoning. Light elim read.

TGK: They barely posted, and that was mostly to make sure they aren't sleeping next cycle and to explain themselves afterwards. Light elim read.

 

I'll try to do some more analysis this cycle, but I can't promise anything. As for my vote, it will most likely be on either Sart or TGK, I'll decide once I understand how many votes each person has.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I was assured this would work. Forgive me if it doesn't. Up to the beginning of page five so far, but wanted to post what I had before finishing. Conclusions and links to follow when I've caught up, but for now, Straw, Pyro.

Posts by game	Cycle	Posts by turn	Player:	Key content:	Thoughts on content:	Alignment indicative:	Vote:	Retractions:
1	D1	1	Silberfarben	Hasn't received PM	N/A	NAI
2	D1	2	Elkanah	Welcomes all to game	N/A	NAI
3	D1	3	DeTess	Elims need to kill Bleeder, Bleeder needs to keep Elims alive. Can't trust Bodyguard protection. Elims might want to double tap anyoen with bodyguard protection. Focus of village should be on eliminators, not Bleeder.	Mild village. Suggests that he was trying to give advice to eliminator team in mutual interest.	Mild village
4	D1	4	Elkanah	Jokes about dispersing	Less likely for eliminator to joke about it	Mild village
5	D1	5	Silberfarben	RP	N/A	NAI
6	D1	6	Emi	Asks if we are playing in this thread	Eliminator with so little knowledge would ask elim doc	Moderate village read
7	D1	7	Silberfarben	Confirms we are playing in this thread	N/A	NAI
8	D1	8	DeTess	Dscribes thread creation each cycle	N/A	NAI
9	D1	9	Straw	Responds to DeTess' post. Corrects DeTess stating that Flogs is a role scanner, saying that's what renowned are. Also recommends Flogs be careful. Says we shouldn't trust anyone who has survived. Says focusing on Bleeder would probably be a waste of effort.	Gut read against "probably". Possible Renowned?	Very mild evil
10	D1	10	Coda	Lots of players. Tells Flogs not to die.	Feels like a comment to appear good, not add value	Mild to moderate evil
11	D1	11	Matrim	Asks how many eliminators there normally are. Suggests 3/1 ratio.	Unsure. Genuine question or attempt to appear as confused villager.	Unsure.
12	D1	12	Straw	Responds to Matrim. Says normally 20%-25% eliminators. Suggests seven or eight.	N/A. Reconsider if Straw flips evil.	NAI
13	D1	13	Karnage	Suggests we need to get rid of 7-8 constables if Straw to be believed. Questions whether Elkanah's joke about dispersing was a sign for future constables.	Less likely that Straw and Karnage on the same team if one evil. Think genuine uncertainty around constables, but unclear.	Very mild village
14	D1	14	Matrim	Also questions whether Elkanah's joke was serious.	Very marginally less likely Matrim and Karnage on the same team if either evil.	NAI
15	D1	15	Emi	Apologises for asking questions, asks what we are meant to do.	Genuine uncertainty	Moderate village read
16	D1	16	Matrim	Says also wondering what to do. Thinks first cycle about gut reads and waiting for mistakes. Jokes about being a villager. Thinks eliminators will bandwagon because they have a doc.	Some village, some evil. Think naivity around bandwagon suggests possible non-eliminator.	Mild village read
17	D1	17	Kynedath	Says we need to look for people acting in a suspicious manner. Says we're unlikely to hit an eliminator D1, but lynching D1 is a big way to gain info. Won't vote on D1 for moral reasons.Says poke voting may be less likely. Is going to try to be more active.	Contradictory, but appears to be consistent with previous behaviour.	NAI
18	D1	18	Emi	Thanks Kynedath	N/A	NAI
19	D1	19	Elkanah	Explains disperse vote a joke. Says game doesn't start properly until C3	Disagree with C3. Possible attempt to prevent analysis. Unlikely.	NAI
20	D1	20	Matrim	Says he recieved a notification that Xino posted, but no post	N/A	NAI
21	D1	21	Straw	Says we should try our hardest for a D1 lynch despite limited information. D1 vote gives basis for future discussion. Checked the rules and elims do have a doc. Says Eliminators unlikely to bandwagon.	Agree re D1 lynch. Checking rules for elim doc feels forced.	Mild evil
22	D1	22	Elkanah	Says they like no retraction mechanic. Expresses belief in Kynedath re activity.	N/A	NAI
23	D1	23	Matrim	Says he won't be low profile	N/A	NAI
24	D1	24	Xino	Rules analysis. Suggests Flogs actually better off sharing identity with constables.	Nothing at all controversial. Post to appear active?	V. mild evil
25	D1	25	Emi	Says Xino's post contains a lot of information.	Again, feels genuine	Mild village
26	D1	26	Elkanah	Dowser has normal village win condition. Says game information heavy. With gambling tycoons, c. 34 lives in game.	None	NAI
27	D1	27	Striker	Welcomes new players. Asks Joe about PM mechanic. Says Xino stated his thoughts on the game. Suggests possibly 9 eliminators, because Joe is a troll.	Less likely evil if Straw evil	NAI
28	D1	28	Matrim	Asks further re PM mechanic	N/A	NAI
29	D1	29	HH	Says many kills each cycle. Says C1 lynch may be a bit much, but opportunity for village to direct a kill. No vote.	Absence fo vote despite conclusion interesting. Ignores strong eliminator ability to direct early lynch.	Mild evil
30	D1	30	Straw	Agrees that nine eliminators is a possibility if strong village or weak eliminator team. Poke votes Araris	Sensible analysis	Mild village	Araris
31	D1	31	Mist	Says 3 vote lynch requirement only C1. Says Bleeder won't want to kill too many eliminators too quickly.	N/A	NAI
32	D1	32	Matrim	Asks whether Straw has miscounted	N/A	NAI
33	D1	33	Straw	Clarifies to Matrim his poke vote	N/A	NAI
34	D1	34	wilson	rp. roleclaims gossip. gut reads against straw and karnage. votes straw.	in character with wilson having fun.	very mild village	straw
35	D1	35	Straw	Asks why Wilson has bad gut read against Karnage and himself. Says Xino's post bothers him.	Makes sensible point re Xino - agree. Yet keeps poke vote and doesn't vote based on what botehrs him?	Unsure.
36	D1	36	Pyro	Says he is going to be less active as he doesn't want to die early.	Not helpful to village. Obfuscates reads.	Mild evil
37	D1	37	wilson	says a gut read is a gut read. not able to explain it.	doesnt feel a need to justify herself.	nai
38	D1	38	Matrim	Confuses Straw's poke vote. Votes on Straw.	Quick to leap on misunderstanding. Unlikely to be on a team with Straw. Possibly too eager for a lynch?	Unsure - revisit if Straw dies	Straw
39	D1	39	Straw	Tells Pyro his playstyle isn't useful. Explains poke vote.	Agree re play style.	Very mild village
40	D1	40	wilson	explains straws poke vote.	n/a	nai
41	D1	41	Pyro	Complains about Straw being suspicious of those who post less. Remains committed to it.	Overacting? Seems committed to low involvement playstyle.	Mild evil
42	D1	42	Xino	Finishes rule review.	Still no engagement with actual players.	Very mild evil
43	D1	43	Straw	Questions whether Matrim was trying to get a lynch train started on him	Seems to be genuine confusion from Matrim. Excuse to cast suspicion on him? Still has poke vote on Araris.	Very mild evil
44	D1	44	Dot	RP	N/A	NAI
45	D1	45	Matrim	Retracts from Straw, poke votes on Archivist following Straw's pattern.	Yet less likely that Straw and Matrim on the same team.	NAI	Archivist	Straw
46	D1	46	Elkanah	Says their point was more lynches to lylo. Therefore more information.	Sensible enough	NAI
47	D1	47	wilson	explains her posting style	n/a	nai
48	D1	48	Karnage	Votes on Fura. Asks whether Wilson's style is to confuse people.	Seems like honest question	NAI	Fura
49	D1	49	wilson	explains her style and why shes doing it	agree wholeheartedly	nai
50	D1	50	Devotary	Says killing anyone who survives a lynch could be killing Flogs	Fair observation	NAI
51	D1	51	Karnage	Responds positively to Wilson	n/a	NAI
52	D1	52	Pyro	Congratulates Karnage on post count	Waste of thread...	NAI
53	D1	53	Matrim	Congratulates Straw on post count	Waste of thread...	NAI
54	D1	54	Bugsy	Says he will be inactive this cycle due to essay	N/A	NAI
55	D1	55	BR	Complains about too many posts. Mixes up village an eliminator names. Says eliminator team would be hilariously big with seven or eight people.	Have muslynched for mixing names before. Worth watching. Agrees with Straw that team probably not bigger than seven or eight. Possible that on same team if evil, trying to sell smaller team?	Mild evil
56	D1	56	Orlok	Votes on Straw as third vote. Has missed Matrim's retraction.	Is an idiot. Can't even read properly.	Village
57	D1	57	Pyro	Questions whether game could have fewer elims than normal to make village paranoid.	Not helpful to state - shouldn't be lowering people's guard.	Moderate evil.
58	D1	58	Straw	Says village win if bleeder also dead. Asks Orlok's reasoning for vote.	Moves discussion on.	NAI
59	D1	59	Emi	Says they're going to sleep	N/A	NAI
60	D1	60	Orlok	Vote on Straw is gut. Wanted to make three vote lynch.	See above. Clearly an idiot.	Village
61	D1	61	Fura	Tells Pyro never played a game where he died C1. Says he has complained about C1 death every game, so NAI. Votes on Karnage in retailiation	Useful information.	NAI	Karnage
62	D1	62	Pyro	Says worst he has been is neutral. Lists early deaths.	Sympathy appeal. Reminds everyone never evil - so can't be this time?	Moderate evil.	Pyro
63	D1	63	Fura	Says Pyro's early deaths all ages ago. Says Striker became more active after repeatedly dying early.	Still no vote on Pyro?	Unsure
64	D1	64	Striker	Comments on previous early deaths	N/A	NAI
65	D1	65	Matrim	Asks if he can PM Joe whenever	Seems genuine confusion	Strong village
66	D1	66	Fura	Answers Matrim	N/A	NAI
67	D1	67	Pyro	Thinks renowned are alignment scanners.	If evil would know this not to be case	Mild village
68	D1	68	Karnage	Poke votes God King, retracts from Fura for posting	Not helpful use of votes. Consistent.	NAI	God King	Fura
69	D1	69	Arraenae	Win con analysis.	Useful information.	NAI
70	D1	70	Araris	Votes on Karnage for poke voting only	Fair enough vote.	Mild village	Karnage
71	D1	71	Orlok	Multiquote. Thinks Emi village. Worried about Xino, Coda, Straw, Pyro	Needs to get some sleep	Village
72	D1	72	Matrim	Says his vote is staying on Archivist, but agrees with Orlok re worry about Coda	Seems to believe in poke votes.	NAI
73	D1	73	Elkanah	Says Coda's behaviour is standard for them. Won't vote on KArnage as tunnelled on them last game.	Useful information.	NAI
74	D1	74	Pyro	Again says he has never been mafia. Says he is disappointed not to be soemthing interesting.	Very strong gut against this.	EVIL
75	D1	75	Matrim	Asks what NAI means	Would probably be asked in elim doc if in one	Mild village
76	D1	76	Elkanah	Apologises for using acronym	N/A	NAI
77	D1	77	Straw	Says language picked up by Orlok is normal for him. Says suspicious of Xino, Pyro, Karnage. Will be fine with Pyro if he starts posting.	Lots of connections.	NAI
78	D1	78	Arraenae	Tells Orlok that people are saving PMs	True, misses Orlok's point	NAI
79	D1	79	Pyro	Does basic role analysis	Not alignment indicative posting. Doesn't give information on relationships between players.	NAI
80	D1	80	Fura	Does elim count analysis. Suggests 9 eliminators.	V useful post. High elim count - not downplaying	Mild village
81	D1	81	Straw	Asks Pyro for reads. Asks Orlok why he village reads Emi.	V sensible post re Pyro.	Mild village
82	D1	82	Straw	Answers Joe	N/A	NAI
83	D1	83	Matrim	Asks Straw if he passed his test	N/A	NAI
84	D1	84	Pyro	Says Wilson being weird makes it hard to read her. Queries whether this is her point? Thinks Matrim playing oddly. Village reads Karnage. Says Straw and Orlok making a big deal of his posting differently, but Straw being reasonable.	Can't spell my name. Disagree with most of his analysis, but appreciate him putting it there	Unsure
85	D1	85	Sart	Vote count. Votes on Straw for not giving his own reads, and to force a vote. Thinks Karnage playing normally.	Agree with him.	Mild village	Straw
86	D1	86	Matrim	Says he poke voted Archivist. Says Straw leaving vote on Araris is odd.	Poke voting isn't useful. Fair observation re Straw.	Unsure
87	D1	87	Pyro	Votes on Straw for leaving vote on Araris	Better than nothing	Unsure - revisit if Straw dies	Straw
88	D1	88	Straw	Replies to Araris, says he has given thoughts on players. Gives further reads. Kynedath village for helping players. HH elim read due to waffle. NAI on Coda. Araris suspicious. Wilson suspiciousish. Then says "Araris posted?" Moves vote to Xino.	Great that giving reads. V useful. Araris read then question whether they've posted v. odd. Ask about this.	Unsure but useful	Xino	Araris
89	D1	89	Pyro	Elkanah posting a lot not saying much. Moves vote from Straw to Elkanah	Vote on Straw NAI. Possibly distancing.	Unsure	Elkanah	Straw
90	D1	90	Karnage	Asks what is wrong with poke voting. Says Orlok shouldn't think they are a villager just because he forgot the elim doc exists. Identifies Pyro's post trying to slip under the radar.	No vote on Pyro for this? Village gut on this post.	Moderate village read
91	D1	91	Xino	Vote count. Gives reads. Trusts Elkanah on gut. Says he doesn't agree with Orlok's vote on Straw. Sart vote based on false information. Votes on Sart for bandwagonning.	Seems justifiable belief.	Mild village	Sart
92	D1	92	Araris	Defends Sart, suspicious of Xino.	Fair enough.	Mild village
93	D1	93	Matrim	Village read Straw for honest contributions. Village reads Pyro. Slight elim reads on Sart and Araris. Elim read on Elkanah for joke. Xino gut village. Still poke voting Archivist	Elim read on Elkanah odd. Misunderstanding of game makes me think doesn't have a team.	Mild village
94	D1	94	Elkanah	Says doesn't want to lynch active players	N/A	NAI
95	D1	95	God King	Says he is lurking.	Terrible strategy. That he's admitting to it is less likely if evil.	Mild village
96	D1	96	BR	Points out to Matrim that eliminators less likely to make jokes. Reads it as NAI for Elkanah. Doesn't want to lynch Straw when he is this active. Thinks Pyro NAI. Village vibe for Fura. Defends Pyro again.	Strong connection with Pyro	Moderate evil.
97	D1	97	Pyro	Informs BR that when retractign a vote you have to place a new one	N/A	NAI
98	D1	98	BR	Correcting misunderstanding	N/A	NAI
99	D1	99	Kynedath	Rules analysis. Dispersion less important than had initially thought. Reads: BR neutral, but post suspicious. Xino not suspicious for going through roles. Like Straw's activity. Doesn't like lynch on Karnage. Suspicious of DeTess. Bad gut on God King.	Reads feel genuine. Agree re Karnage. Disagree re DeTess.	Mild village.

 

Edit - appears I was lied to. Still, it has kept lines separate - you'll have to do your best to interpret it.

Edit II - by the grace of our IM, I have replaced the horrifying mess that was here with the sheet including cells.

[Araris Valerian]

35 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Why stab with nothing to go off of in the first half of C1? Why not get some discussion going (with poke votes) then use the later half of the cycle to stab based off of more context? I don't think we need to bandwagon right of the gate, why not have some reason for it. 

The thing is, the "discussion" and "friction" amount to the following: I vote on player X. Player X makes a post to the effect of "I'm here, but I don't really have any suspicions". I move my vote to player Y and repeat. At the end of the day, we didn't learn anything.

[Straw]

That's some messy formatting.

I'd just like to say that I totally called it: 

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Yes. Just put your last vote in green and your new one in red.

It's interesting how @Orlok Tsubodai, @little wilson, and @Sart have all been rather quiet lately. Orlok talked about infolynching with me, but hasn't really replied to me on his read of me. I feel like he's going to drop a giant post or something. Wilson put a gut vote on me and didn't elaborate. She also explained her whole tone thing. Sart just dropped a weird bandwagony vote on me and left.

Okay, I'll update. I think one of the TGK people did switch their vote.

Will respond soon.

[Furamirionind]

9 hours ago, DeTess said:

Can you explain this a bit more? I've got a slight village read on Emi based on their confusion, but that's in my opinion not enough for a strong village read. Did I miss anything?

A combination of my schedule and everyone else's, actually. It took a while for the thread to pick up after my post, and when it did I was too busy to post anything else that day. Regarding your slight suspicion regarding my warning on people seemingly being protected by bodyguards: Am I wrong, given the way bleeder's self-protect works? And If I'm not, why is me pointing it out anything other than NAI?

Now, for some other rambling thoughts. I'm also not really seeing the suspicion on straw right now, but if enough people talk about them it might still be a worthwhile lynch. (at this point Orlok ninja's me with a similar sentiment. If I can find another lynch, I would prefer it over straw C1 though. Given how much talk Straw brings to the table, lynching them a bit later might be more worthwhile).

@The Young Pyromancer, a quick bit advice for avoiding being lynched early: do not play too defensively. Right now you've been focusing a lot on your track record of being lynched early and never being an elim (and not getting an interesting role this game either), and I consider all these things to be red flags of some sort. The best way to avoid getting lynched isn't to convince people you're innocent, but to convince enough people someone else is more guilty.

I also highly doubt that there are 9 elims. Going by Furami's analysis, 9 elims would exceed parity after cycle 4 in perfect game, and at that point it doesn't  really matter that they can't disperse the party yet as they can control the lynch when they need to. By that same token there is just no way for there to be 10 of them, because in that case C3 is technically Lylo. 

Hmmm, this actually makes me somewhat suspicious of Fura, because I can't really see village!fura missing this, while elim!fura trying to sell us on the idea of a larger elm team could.

@Arraenae, what makes you think the 5th octant constable would be more likely to sabotage his own team in his attempt to get to dowser? It is one way that role could play, but I could also just seem them making a pact with the rest of the elims that they'll help them get to dowser before dispersing.

Araris' defense of sart is a bit interesting, but I don't think it suggests that both of them are team-mates. If they where, I'd expect Araris to distance more. On the other hand, I could see elim!Araris to step in to protect village!sart, as either a pocketing attempt, or a kind of reverse distancing where he could sue Sart's flip to remove suspicion from his own actions. However, Araris vote wasn't out of character for him, nor is his defense of sart for the reasons, so I think it's just NAI.

Anyway, to properly commit myself to voting C1, I'm going to put a vote on Fura. The only other persons that have roused my suspicion so far are the young pyromancer, who I don't want to lynch C1, and the god king, whose reticence to get involved seems somewhat out of character.

When new players join the thread, they typically speak in a certain way with asking question in thread, sounding super innocent, etc. I know this isn't always the case, as I wasn't quite like that my first game (Probably in large part to it being a Free for All). However it is a trend I've seen. It also seems to correlate with being village.Due to this, Emi is probably village.

Exceed parity by cycle 4? My analysis said that lylo would be C5, so C6 would exceed parity? Am I misreading my own analysis? I think you are though.

Something about your paragraph about Araris and Sart is throwing me off, though I'm not sure why exactly. But it seems that you are assuming Araris is an elim, then clearing others based on that, then saying Araris isn't actually an elim.

3 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Whew. Just woke up, there are a lot of posts to get through... we'll see...

I am referring to everyone else posting their suspicions of him, not Xino's own posts. This is me listening to everybody else.  Like I said though, gut village read.

This strikes me as slightly suspicious, similar to his first post he didn't really say anything. @The_God_King could you explain what you mean by 'have to post to vote next cycle'?

 

Top Village reads: Orlok, Straw, BrightnessRadiant, Kynedath

Top Elim reads (though none of these are very strong): Sart, TGK, Araris

 

Even though he still hasn't posted I'm going to retract my vote on Archivist and move it over to Sart

Why do you have Orlok in your top village leans? I don't believe anything Orlok has done so far is AI at all for him. 

I also will say to be careful about Araris. His playstyle is very aggressive which some take to be suspicious.

2 hours ago, Straw said:

Yes, the village needs to address the information balance. However, infolynching is a poor way to accomplish that. By directly saying you're infolynching, you provide few ways for your target to put up any defense. They can hardly go back and say they didn't interact with anyone else, or didn't make any posts. Infolynching also provides people with an easy way to bandwagon. They don't particularly have to analyze the person they're lynching, and they can just hop on the train. I suspect we'll just have to agree to disagree on infolynching. I'd be curious to hear what other people think of infolynching after seeing our arguments for and against it.

In regards to your "reasonable and material suspicion", I do believe that several players are more suspicious than me. Some people that immediately come to mind are Sart, for bandwagoning on me with little reason and Araris, for being supportive of bandwagoning but opposed to poke-voting. Pyro and Xino were both suspicions of mine, but I've grown less suspicious of them.

I will be interested to see your post, since I have yet to see any response to my response to your post. I also have yet to see why you're so supportive of Emi, and why you wanted Matrim to sheep your vote. Some thoughts on Sart or Araris would also be appreciated.

You vote in the thread in red text. Red text can be created by doing something like this:

[color=red]Emi[/color]

Also, in an attempt to get some content from you: How do you feel about Orlok reading you as village? Do you think you've done anything especially village-ish so far this game to deserve that? What are your suspicions and reads on other players?

2 hours ago, Kynedath said:

infolynching is a term I've never seen used before, so this will be based on context alone from the discussion between Straw and Orlok. Seen below if you missed it, also as a reference for me when I writing this post.

Infolynching is really only plausible during the first or second cycles, but even then I feel like it's weak. Once people specifically state that they're lynching someone just for information, all new information that cycle essentially stops being usable. Like Straw said, by lynching for information you are tainting the results and affecting how people respond, so yes you have the connections and positions before starting the infolynch that you can work with easier, but you don't have as much in the end since people an hide so well like Straw said.

And honestly, I agree with Straw that that isn't the kind of attitude I want to have, especially cycle one. It's a brutal philosophy that I don't particularly enjoy, nor do I find it to be better in the long run. Lynching the player that has talked the most and interacted with the most players incentivises players to keep quiet so that they don't draw attention to themselves which just helps the elims hide better. Plus, keeping talkative players around provides more information in the future, more connections being made to analyze when that player does get lynched from acting suspicious.

Honestly, this whole push for an infolynch is a really easy way for an elim to claim to be getting information for the village and instead just killing off a active player, which makes me quite suspicious of Orlok in addition to my other suspicions.

I disagree about info lynching. First, I'll say I'm not super fond of it on principle, as I feel like it isn't fun to be lynched for information. However, I do believe it to be effective and a good strategy for finding elims. Even once you say you are info lynching, the elims still have to try to find a way to avoid lynching their teammates. There will still be discussion. It's kind of the same as regular D1 lynching anyways.

1 hour ago, The_God_King said:

Well since people aren’t understanding me. 
- I posted because if I don’t post I can’t vote next cycle.

- also C1 is a conundrum to me because time and time again lines drawn day one only help eliminators. People can’t be cleared because they are useful C1 or even useful in other cycles. The same is the other way around. suspicions day one are random at best, elim manipulation at worst.

- Cheers! My barrel RP has made people confused. Also @Experience I didn’t say anything about dispersing only voting because I didn’t want to be drowsy

That's what the game is. A struggle between gaining information and not knowing what information is real or fake. Then we use this information to make educated guesses to gain more information that might be real or fake.

1 hour ago, The_God_King said:

Dang, that’s not what I was wanting to convey. Last game we had similar number of posts and we didn’t find anything useful and even lynched a couple village because of it. I don’t appreciate the inquisition. I won’t argue meta on this. I think there’s plenty of good discussion and honestly I usually RP C1 and read the clarification and initial analysis that I myself can’t contribute much to. 

We did gain a lot of useful info. However the elim team played really well. It was mentioned that Sart may still be an elim bussing a teammate, but the villagers in that game made the wrong call and trusted him anyways. It happens.

---

I've taken several hours to write this soooooo... I've been ninja'd way too many times. 

It seems that the lynch is shifting to Karnage though, which I don't like. I voted on him as a joke, but why is everyone else moving to him?

Karnage

Straw

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Why do you have Orlok in your top village leans? I don't believe anything Orlok has done so far is AI at all for him. 

Don't anymore, changed my mind after re-reading the thread. Mild elim/NAI at the moment

[Straw]

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

 

I've taken several hours to write this soooooo... I've been ninja'd way too many times. 

It seems that the lynch is shifting to Karnage though, which I don't like. I voted on him as a joke, but why is everyone else moving to him?

Karnage

Straw

What in this indicates that I'm elim? You only mentioned that you agreed with Orlok on infolynching, but didn't mention me at all otherwise. For such a long post, this has remarkably little thought put into it. Care to elaborate?