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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting


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I don't think I'm the one that has poke voted the most, I'm at least tied with a few other people. This strikes me as someone that wants to make a vote sound legit without having to do much to start either a train or just get away with a poke vote without it being a poke vote since I've already posted. Also whats wrong with poke voting until I find someone that actually starts to sound suspicious? @Araris Valerian

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

What did you mean by a sign for future constables, @Karnage?

To answer your question and a few other peoples question, about that statement... It honestly sounded clear when I typed it, but reading back I relize how it might be confusing. Also, not sure why someone got a gut read that I was slight villager based on the fact that they though I had forgotten there is an elim doc, but thanks for the support. 

What I meant by this was the constable win if they can get the party to disperse, therefore if someone wants to disperse without any legit analysis confirming that there is no other constables than that would point out that they might be a constable trying to get a win. So... not knowing that (I think) Elandera was joking I thought that that would be a way of finding constables if they made a misstep.  

Does that make sense to y'all?

2 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I'm actually disappointed that I didn't get to be something more interesting this game. I would have loved to be Bleeder, fighting against both factions with the odds stacked against me. That would have been sweet. The Constable's having to balance kills with the possibility of helping bleeder would have been fascinating to manage as well. But alas, I am neither.:unsure:

Not sure if you are trying to get away with something as you saying all of this makes me think that you are trying to go under the radar. You saying this makes you jump onto my radar and hopefully onto others as well. 

@Straw This is my third game:)

This is my third time trying to post this! grrrrrr

Finally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Vote Count:
Araris (1): Straw
Straw (3): Wilson, Orlok, Sart
Archivist (1): Matrim's Dice
Karnage (2): Furamirionind, Araris
The God King (1): Karnage
Elkanah (1): Pyro

Sart(1): Xino

The cycle is a third of the way over. Six people have yet to post. @The_Archivist @Experience @The_God_King @Hammond42 @Shard of Reading @Zillah

People seem to be unhappy with my shallowly analyzed game posts, which is probably fair. I've been slipping into old habits...

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Useful but entirely NAI post from Xino. I'm always a little wary of people trying to hide behind this sort of post. @xinoehp512, plenty more has now been said in thread. Thoughts on any players? Particularly interested in your thoughts on Straw, Coda, and Pyro.

Thoughts? Oh dear, now I have to think... :P 

I have a random trust of Elkanah, but that's pretty typical.

Straw has been both active and helpful so far. He is currently up for the lynch. Wilson voted on him for a gut read. Orlok voted on him to provoke a response to his accusations, which I don't know if I agree with. Sart voted to tip the scales because he'd apparently not been giving reads- which is explicitly false.

Never been the best at reads, especially not D1, but something about this train feels a little fishy. Sart, I don't like your bandwagon-y attitude and faulty reasoning, so I might as well vote for you for now. (@Sart)

Coda has made one post. Didn't trip off any red flags for me.

I'm kind of getting mixed vibes from Karnage. Have to go, don't exactly know what to think.

 

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17 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Sart, I don't like your bandwagon-y attitude and faulty reasoning,

How is Sart's "bandwagon-y attitude" any different from mine? I explicity voted on Karnage because he already had a vote. There is a 3-vote minimum for the lynch this cycle, and because it is very rare for any obvious AI stuff to come up cycle 1, some bandwagoning is necessary for a lynch to happen at all. I'm usually uncomfortable voting on Straw, since his village playstyle sends to set me off consistently. But I think having lynch pressure this early is good, and I'm somewhat suspicious of Xino for trying to remove that pressure so quickly.

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Ok, I'm signing off for the night, here is my final analysis that no one specifically asked for.

Disclaimers:

  • As a new player I am bound to over/under analyze stuff based on not knowing everyone's player styles and general inexperience in the game
  • LOTS of 'gut feelings', everything subject to change before tomorrow night

Straw: I honestly am leaning toward villager. He seems to be giving honest contributions, and I don't really have a gut feeling for or against. I won't actively try to persuade against lynching him, but I probably won't promote it either.

Pyro: Again, reading slight village. Not sure, also again...

Sart/Araris: I am grouping these two together as a slight elim read. Sart voted for Straw solely for the day one lynch, then Araris defended him. Mostly gut feeling.

Elkanah: The joke to disperse at the beginning seems like something a villager wouldn't dare try. slight elim read.

Xino: My gut says village, my logic from reading the posts says elim. not sure.

 

Nonetheless, after that mostly uninformative post, my vote stays on @The_Archivist. If he posts I will change it.

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1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Which is why I considered posting less in the first place.

As for my new vote, @Elkanah seems to be posting a lot but not saying much. Since I have to vote for someone else,

Straw Elkanah

Ouch, but ok. Hmm things to say in my posts. I don't want to lynch Karnage, Straw, Pyromancer, Orlock or Matrims Dice.

By no means do I believe any of you are village, but it would get pretty lonely in the thread here.

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19 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Elkanah: The joke to disperse at the beginning seems like something a villager wouldn't dare try. slight elim read.

Usually I'm of the mindset that an elim would be the one being more careful not to make jokes that would get them killed. So if anything I would read Elkanah as more village for that. Although personally I'm reading it as completely NAI because it was just a joke and I think they would've made it either way. :P

I finally read back through the rules and caught up on thread again lol. I kept putting it off all day cuz I don't feel like I have the brain power for this right now. I have been reading some posts off and on but that's all really.

Based on my feelings from thinking about the game and seeing posts throughout the day I feel like the Straw lynch just reminds me of old times. xD I literally always wanted to lynch him cycle 1 and had to realize I always just read him wrong. I'm really loving his activity tho, this might be the most active I ever remember seeing from him. This being a cycle 1 lynch where I don't suspect much of anything most of the time I'd rather not lynch someone adding so much to the game right now. Thankfully it's not a QF so maybe my brain will work better tomorrow and I can look at things more again.

Oh also the thing with pyro taking heat for saying he won't be as active cycle 1 is kinda odd. I mean I feel like it was NAI to say. He would've been better off not saying anything and then just being low active haha. 

@little wilson I like your new style! Having fun is the best part of the game and I hope you have lots of it!

Nuuuuu people stop ninjaing me I don't wanna catch up again lol.

I'm trying to remember things that caught my attention from reading the thread without having to read it again. hm. 

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

As for my new vote, @Elkanah seems to be posting a lot but not saying much. Since I have to vote for someone else,

Straw Elkanah

I mean you don't have to. :P (not accusing you of anything lol, just found the wording funny)

 

I like Fura's analysis of how many elims there could be. Got a good village vibe from it with them really considering how many elims we could have.

Ugh okay I'll go look back cuz my brain won't remember what I read about the thread now xD

17 hours ago, DeTess said:

All I can say regarding that is for the Flogs player to be very careful, and if possible, find someone you can trust and pass on your scans to them as they happen.

Oh yes, I wanted to comment on this. If you're Flogs and are considering telling your reads to people please don't do it early in game. We want you to stay alive for as long as possible and I would think maybe keep your reads to yourself until you suspect you might be killed or something. I dunno I just never like telling a player to confide in a chosen person in PM cuz that backfires all the time. xD Especially if Flogs is a newer player, don't let another player trick you into this in PM. Not really saying DeTess is sus for saying this, just wanted to add to it so that we don't end up with Flogs outed super early.

11 hours ago, Straw said:

A D1 vote gives us a strong basis for future discussion.

*thinks about how the last QF day 1 lynch led to us never finding another elim :lol: oof

11 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Also I'm kind of laughing at myself for saying I would be low-profile the first few cycles. I should have known my own personality enough to know that wouldn't happen.

lol Matrim said this too and pyro is taking heat for the same thing? Weird.

Okay I hate losing posts because of the shard being weird about reloading and deleting stuff so i'll pause here in my looking back. Brain won't think anymore. I'll have to continue thinking about it later.

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Alright folks, I'm back. The five page day 1 is really intimidating, but I'll do my best to put out my current thoughts. It seems a lot of people are trying a change in game style, I really don't think it's alignment indicative at all since this game is a great time to try out new things - especially with the mix of old and new players. Plus I'm trying to do the same in a way so it would be hypocritical to say anything otherwise.

I just want to put it out there to @little wilson I really respect you for finding a way to have fun in this game. I've had a few times when I've had to put the game aside in the interest of keeping the game a fun environment, it's tough. I know it probably doesn't mean much coming from me - someone you haven't really played with or know - but I just wanted to put it out there hoping it would brighten your day at least a bit.

Also, to anyone in the spec doc who missed out on playing because of the player cap, I salute you! You're troopers and I hope you enjoy watching this chaos.

Anyway, now to some light rules analysis:

So I totally missed that if all the constables and bleeder are dead the criminals win. That makes the timing of dispersing a lot less important in my eyes since it makes a lot more sense to me to just keep trying to find everyone. The constables are going to have a hell of a time trying to convince the village as a whole to disperse rather than if the criminals had to disperse to win themselves.

I'm actually really looking forwards to the PM mechanics in this game for once, they're new and exciting and full of promise. Limiting PMs like that will have a really cool effect on what PMing will look like. I also want to bring up the possibility of people purposefully sending more PMs than they are allowed to in an attempt to frame someone or set them up, give the village weird false information. Or to give them information the next cycle if they think they are going to die. Since any PMs after the first (or fourth for the gossipers) are posted to the thread, someone can send one PM to someone, then later send another to another player saying something like "X player targeted Y, they must be Bleeder!" It's super situational and I haven't really thought it all out so it could be a completely invalid tactic, but I thought i'd bring it up for discussions sake. What do you guys think?

On to initial reads:

@BrightnessRadiant Saying in your post that your brain wasn't working too well seems suspicious to me because that could be a way to hide not having too much of proper value to say. However You have a good post with good content as far as I can tell and your writing does sound sleepy and off kilter so I'm probably wrong on that count. Overall I think it's neutral even though my gut went off at your post. Although I could have sworn you said something really really similar near the beginning of this cycle, was that someone else? Or can I just not find the post I'm looking for?

I don't think @xinoehp512 going through roles is as suspicious as others make it out to be, I seem to recall them doing similar every game I've played with them. Even just recounting what the roles do seems NAI to me since that is a legit way to think about them, just comparing them to their vanilla mafia counterparts.

I like the activity we are getting from a lot of the players, especially @Straw, and though it is NAI to just contribute to the conversation I'm inclined to argue for not voting for them just yet since they contribute so much to the conversation. I'm shaky on the @Karnage lynch too, I don't really get why they are being voted on in the first place? Can anyone explain that?

As for actual suspicions I'd say maybe @DeTess? They came on early on and have disappeared, that might be to get a presence early on and then lie low. Even if that is just their schedule (which it very well could be) Their only big post that I can remember was saying that everything is shaky and that we can't really trust that surviving an attack is a sign of either bodyguard protection or just bleeder. Maybe sowing chaos in the ranks, but it's a weak suspicion.

Other than that I'd say maybe @The_God_King since they were poked and replied by saying they were in a barrel. That just seems off to me, so a gut read on them.

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13 hours ago, Kynedath said:

 Also, lately I've been sitting back during the beginning portion of the game, saying that I am more useful late game, but this game I am going to try to be more active and contribute more during the early game, so I'm letting you guys know right now to try t hold myself a bit more accountable to that.

I would read this as slightly village - because to try a new plastyle in this sense as an elim is risky, even if you admit it to the village, and I feel like they would likely wait until their next game to do this if they were an eliminator, so slight village read there.

19 hours ago, Elkanah said:

I don't know about you guys, but I think it's already pretty ok to disperse! Who's with me? No one? Okay fine disperse

 

Pretty NAI I think, its pretty typical of Elkanah to say things like this. (They did a very good job of confusing the heck out of me with this kind of stuff my first game!)

9 hours ago, Bugsy said:

Hey, everyone!

Unfortunately, I've got an essay due tomorrow, so I'm going to be a little busy for this cycle. Once that's done, I should be able to jump into the thick of it.

I look forward to playing with you all!

 

Heh, me too. . .But SE is better.

4 hours ago, Sart said:

I am a firm believer in a Day One lynch. Therefore, I will force the issue by voting on Straw. I haven't noticed Karnage behaving differently than normal, and I think every game I've played with him he's been a villager. Plus, Straw is poking a lot of people on their reads, but not actually making any reads himself. For these reasons, my vote is going on him.

This rubs me the wrong way, as we aren't even halfway through the first cycle yet, and there isn't really a need to add that kind of pressure. I also don't think this could be excused as a way to spark discussion, as we are having plenty of that as is. As well, I believe I saw several of their posts in which they outlined different suspicions of theirs.

3 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Never been the best at reads, especially not D1, but something about this train feels a little fishy. Sart, I don't like your bandwagon-y attitude and faulty reasoning, so I might as well vote for you for now. (@Sart)

I disagree with this being bandwagon-y, even if I don't think that their reasoning was sound for placing that vote. This game does have a three vote minimum for the D1 lynch. 

2 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Xino: My gut says village, my logic from reading the posts says elim. not sure.

@Matrim's_Dice, could I ask what logic specifically says elim?

 

And that's all for tonight - I essentially went through and picked posts I had thoughts about pretty instantly. I'll try and look some more at player's trends tomorrow. 

Edit: Ninja'd by Kynedath

Edited by Zillah
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38 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Yeah, God King made no sense there. I agree. If they weren't on much for a legitimate reason, they would have said so. Instead they were random. That implies an intentional lurker to me.

Have to post to vote next cycle.

Mal waited in the darkness. The cart eventually stopped jostling as the road transitioned to whatever that new tar is called they used to cover the cobblestone 

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Thoughts on Straw, because he has a lot of votes now. Probably will not get to thoughts on Karnage before I have to sleep.

Beware lots of posts below.

 
16 hours ago, Straw said:

I will note that Flogs is an alignment scanner, not a role scanner. Renowned are the role scanners. However, he just scans constable/non-constable, so he can't even 100% trust any of the people he scans. But yes, I would recommend that Flogs be very careful. I will also note that Flogs is immune to the lynch, and I would certainly call that a "survival ability".

I don't see why we would necessarily trust someone protected by a bodyguard in the first place, since we have the Constables, Bleeder, and any bartenders that might be around as possible killers. After all, kills aren't differentiated according to Joe. However, I suppose they'll have a higher likelihood of being village, since Bleeder wants the Constables alive.

Agreed on this. Focusing on Bleeder that much would probably be a waste of effort.

Generally for me clarifying misunderstandings of rules is NAI. Basically argues against taking possible WGGs seriously, which at best tells us that IF Straw is a constable THEN his team is not going to do a WGG.

15 hours ago, Straw said:

Typically, it's between 20% and 25% of the total players. 20% would be 6 players, 25% would be 7.5. I doubt Joe would trend towards 20%, so I'd say probably 7 or 8 elims?

Blah blah distribution talk. Typical D1 we-have-nothing-to-talk-about stuff. NAI.

14 hours ago, Straw said:

Statistically, you're probably right about a villager being lynched, but it's not a good mindset to have. We should always be trying our hardest, even if it's early on and there isn't much to vote off of. A D1 vote gives us a strong basis for future discussion.

Yes, I just checked the rules and they say the elims do have a doc. I doubt they'd all vote on one villager together. You have to remember that the constables want to blend in, so they're not going to do obviously suspicious stuff like that. elim teams will also spread out, so that if one vote train looks suspicious, they're not all implicated.

On D1 lynches, I strongly believe that there should be a D1 lynch. I missed the bit about no unvoting, that's interesting. I can't seem to find it in the rules though?

Remember the days when Straw was a new player? Now he's the one giving advice to the new players. He's grown up so much... :ph34r:

13 hours ago, Straw said:

Nine elims is a possibility. In that case, I'd expect a lot of villagers with powerful roles or multiple roles and/or a pretty weak elim team.

I believe 12 players have checked in now. I'll poke Araris Valerian for now, since he's the first person on the playerlist who hasn't checked in yet. We'll have to be careful about inactivity, and keep the bar fairly high. It'd be easy for Bleeder or the Constables to hide in the crowd of inactives.

It'll be interesting to look back on this once we know either Straw's or Araris's alignment. For now, it could be a random poke, it could be voting on a teammate with a vote that can easily be retracted. NAI right now but good to look at later.

12 hours ago, Straw said:

I never said he was the only person on the playerlist who hadn't checked in. I just went to the playerlist and checked to see if the person at the top of the list had posted. If he hadn't, I would have just continued down until I found someone who hadn't posted yet.

Honestly, poke votes have very little reason behind them anyway, so I'm not sure that a faulty reason for a poke vote in the first half of D1 is worth jumping on.

12 hours ago, Straw said:

Interesting tone.

What makes you have a bad gut read of Karnage and me?

On a separate note, xino's post bothers me when I look at it more. Some of the stuff is literally just repeating the role descriptions. It feels like a way to make it look like he's saying a lot while actually saying very little. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on him.

Asking for clarification and stating a suspicion. Interestingly, no vote on Xino. This is the type of stuff that poke votes get retracted for, so votes can be placed on people who do this. Could be a sign of a Straw/Xino team.

12 hours ago, Straw said:

That's really not useful at all. I'm probably going to be more suspicious of people who are trying to fly under the radar than people who are actually trying to contribute.

...

Go to the player list at the start of this cycle and open it.

Then, look at the top name. It's Araris.

Looks like Straw's getting bogged down in an extended argument here. Still, I like his stated strategy, it fits mine. Slight village read for this.

11 hours ago, Straw said:

Good catch from Xino about Elkanah's thing on Gambling Tycoons. We don't get a role flip from them until they die, AFAIK, so I don't think they give us that much information.

I find it interesting in hindsight that Matrim jumped on me right after Wilson. There's a slight possibility that he was trying to jump on her vote and get a lynch train on me.

Claims that Matrim is an elim.

9 hours ago, Straw said:

Do you realize that we win when all the Constables and Bleeder are dead? I'll guess you're assuming we haven't found Bleeder in that scenario?

I will be quite interested to see your reasoning for that.

Honestly, Straw here is giving me Old!Orlok vibes here, with how much he's talking and pushing other people to comment and trying to get firm stances out of them.

6 hours ago, Straw said:

That's how I talk in general. I'm pretty sure this is just you taking issue with how I speak. You might want to look at how I've talked in some recent games. I tend to throw in stuff like "probably" because there are edge cases where it'd be better to go after Bleeder. For example: If Bleeder dies, then we'll win as soon as we catch the last constable. Due to this, if we think we've caught all of the constables and Flogs isn't dead yet, we might want to try to go after Bleeder instead of dispersing. That way, we can confirm our victory.

Nope. I wanted to see how he'd react.

You do realize that his vote was made on false assumption, right? Also, what information do you think that would gain you? I'd much rather see Matrim put out his own reads, rather than following yours.

Agreed on Xino, Pyro, and Karnage. I'm most suspicious of Xino though. As I believe I've mentioned, he does seem to be adding unnecessary fluff to his posts. I'll be fine with Pyro if he actually starts posting useful things.

Non Alignment Indicative. I think it might be in the SE Lexicon, but that's always hit or miss.

Suspicious of Xino... but he still hasn't dropped a vote on him by this point. Why?

6 hours ago, Straw said:

That's pretty eh. I'm not going to really look at clarifications as contributions.

Yes, Joe said in the rules that people could have more than two roles. I'm not sure if that'll still hold up with the increased number of players though. He said that people have one action, so that answers your second sentence, I suppose.

If you keep posting rather than trying to hide in the shadows, I'll probably be okay. What are your reads, currently?

Looking back, I don't see much to prompt a village read? All of their posts have been confused, which I take as NAI. You could make the argument that they'd be less uncertain about stuff if they had teammates supporting them, but I don't really buy that. Am I missing something?

Pushing for more reads out of people.

5 hours ago, Straw said:

It seemed like your vote was a legitimate mistake, and you didn't really jump at me for going after you. That's point in your favor IMO.

I believe I have quite clearly said that I was suspicious of Xino, Karnage, and Pyro and thought Emi was NAI. On Karnage, I would like to see an explanation from him. I think it's his second game or something, so weirdness can be excused. I suppose I haven't given many reads from other people, so here are some other reads:

Kynedath: Gut village read. I liked that they helped out Matrim and Emi.

Hemalurgic Headshot: Minor gut elim read. They were waffling back and forth on a D1 lynch, which I disliked.

Coda: NAI. They said one general thing encouraging Flogs to not die, which I don't find suspicious. Flos has an alignment scan, so I think they were probably encouraging Flogs to be careful with who they trust to pass on their reads to. I don't get why people would find that suspicious.

Araris: They showed up, voted on Karnage with no explanation that I could see, and left. I don't like it.

Wilson: I of course find their elim read of me to be suspicious, but I'll put them as NAI until I can figure out their posting style.

They posted? Okay, found it. I'll move from Araris to Xino. I'd like to see some non-rules related discussion from him.

Side note: I'm fairly annoyed that I'm seemingly being targeted based on gut and possibly the fact that I'm one of the more active posters.

And finally the Xino vote. Which makes Straw/Xino seem a little less likely, though I will say that at the time this vote was made, it seems unlikely that a lynch train would form on Xino, so it could be distancing done the moment it was deemed to be safe. Straw is making a lot of statements here about alignment and lynching him would give us a lot of info, but honestly, I'm interested in this new Straw. Maybe it's not that new, maybe I missed it from my spot of hiatus, but I want to see where he goes. If he gives this much info in one day, how much more could he give us if we waited a few cycles before killing him?

Verdict: I want to keep Straw alive. He's an active player prodding info out of reticent players and he's reminding me of some of the old guard. The sheer amount of reads he's putting out reads as mildly villagery, too, and I think discussion will be benefited a lot by keeping him alive to talk. If he winds up being that much of a threat to the constables, they'll probably end up killing him, and if not, we can take a closer look at him. Sart. I disagree with what he says about Straw, and between Karnage and Sart, the RNG picked Sart. Sorry, not sorry.

I know ties end with both parties being lynched. Guess the posters after me are really going to be able to make the choice, eh? Consider this a Chinese Fire Drill of sorts.

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1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

Saying in your post that your brain wasn't working too well seems suspicious to me because that could be a way to hide not having too much of proper value to say. However You have a good post with good content as far as I can tell and your writing does sound sleepy and off kilter so I'm probably wrong on that count. Overall I think it's neutral even though my gut went off at your post. Although I could have sworn you said something really really similar near the beginning of this cycle, was that someone else? Or can I just not find the post I'm looking for?

Yup all day my brain was in a bad fog, finally starting to be clear now and I'm supposed to be asleep. *face palms

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Emi was looking at people walking. Everyone were tense, like they were hurrying to somewhere. that seemed weird, but all people sometimes were weird. She grabbed her tea, trying to spot anybody she knew in this crowd. Hiss sounded, when she realizd how hot it is.

Looking at people wasn't really boring, so Emi came back to it, but without her earlier interest. After a while she tried to drink the tea one more time, hoping that it got cooler since the last try. Luckily she was wright and finally could fully enjoy drinking. Soon she finished it and, because she didn't found anybody, she got bored. 

Than she heard noises. People were shouting. Blood on the flooring. And a body laying face down. She closed her eyes, couldn't believe what happened.

Quote

I hope this was ok and I'm not going far from the story

 

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1 hour ago, The_God_King said:

Have to post to vote next cycle.

Just popping in real quick to say I’m confused by this.

Also confused by the suspicion on Straw. His posts haven’t read very elim-y to me. They read like Straw has been sounding in every game I’ve played with him in the last few months. Very analytical, trying to get reads out of people, tends not to back down much. Granted, I do think Straw is a good enough player to keep that same tone even as an elim, but I’m going to go with Occam’s razor here and say that if I think he’s a villager, the simplest solution is that he is one. (Also, other people could use the razor for themselves and decide he must be an elim; that’s perfectly valid).

I don’t feel comfortable making a vote right now because I don’t really have any other reads on anyone else. Plus it’s almost 3 am and voting right now seems like a bad idea. :P

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I'm in Board meetings all until the evening today, but in the interests of getting another comment out before I sit down to do a proper analysis this evening:

A significant part of the discussion this cycle has been on Straw. We've had a string of players vote on him, and a set of players come to his defence.

A day one lynch should always be about information gathering. As much as I've been incredibly impressed by Straw's activity and engagement, the number of interactions he has had with other players suggests to me that we could generate a significant amount of information on D1 by lynching him at this point.

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9 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

A day one lynch should always be about information gathering. As much as I've been incredibly impressed by Straw's activity and engagement, the number of interactions he has had with other players suggests to me that we could generate a significant amount of information on D1 by lynching him at this point.

As much as I agree about information based on player interactions, I really don't want to lynch the most active player so far on cycle 1. (Especially since it's straw and I always seem to do that to him) We still have a good like 25 hours until the end of cycle? I'd like to think we have a lot we can still look at and consider first. Will try and do that tomorrow after work and maybe a nap.

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8 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Summary below the multiquote.

Nothing to say here on your thoughts, DeTess, but just wanted to say hi - it has been too long.

It definitely has :P

8 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Strong village read from Emi's in thread posts.

Can you explain this a bit more? I've got a slight village read on Emi based on their confusion, but that's in my opinion not enough for a strong village read. Did I miss anything?

2 hours ago, Kynedath said:

As for actual suspicions I'd say maybe @DeTess? They came on early on and have disappeared, that might be to get a presence early on and then lie low. Even if that is just their schedule (which it very well could be) Their only big post that I can remember was saying that everything is shaky and that we can't really trust that surviving an attack is a sign of either bodyguard protection or just bleeder. Maybe sowing chaos in the ranks, but it's a weak suspicion.

A combination of my schedule and everyone else's, actually. It took a while for the thread to pick up after my post, and when it did I was too busy to post anything else that day. Regarding your slight suspicion regarding my warning on people seemingly being protected by bodyguards: Am I wrong, given the way bleeder's self-protect works? And If I'm not, why is me pointing it out anything other than NAI?

Now, for some other rambling thoughts. I'm also not really seeing the suspicion on straw right now, but if enough people talk about them it might still be a worthwhile lynch. (at this point Orlok ninja's me with a similar sentiment. If I can find another lynch, I would prefer it over straw C1 though. Given how much talk Straw brings to the table, lynching them a bit later might be more worthwhile).

@The Young Pyromancer, a quick bit advice for avoiding being lynched early: do not play too defensively. Right now you've been focusing a lot on your track record of being lynched early and never being an elim (and not getting an interesting role this game either), and I consider all these things to be red flags of some sort. The best way to avoid getting lynched isn't to convince people you're innocent, but to convince enough people someone else is more guilty.

I also highly doubt that there are 9 elims. Going by Furami's analysis, 9 elims would exceed parity after cycle 4 in perfect game, and at that point it doesn't  really matter that they can't disperse the party yet as they can control the lynch when they need to. By that same token there is just no way for there to be 10 of them, because in that case C3 is technically Lylo. 

Hmmm, this actually makes me somewhat suspicious of Fura, because I can't really see village!fura missing this, while elim!fura trying to sell us on the idea of a larger elm team could.

@Arraenae, what makes you think the 5th octant constable would be more likely to sabotage his own team in his attempt to get to dowser? It is one way that role could play, but I could also just seem them making a pact with the rest of the elims that they'll help them get to dowser before dispersing.

Araris' defense of sart is a bit interesting, but I don't think it suggests that both of them are team-mates. If they where, I'd expect Araris to distance more. On the other hand, I could see elim!Araris to step in to protect village!sart, as either a pocketing attempt, or a kind of reverse distancing where he could sue Sart's flip to remove suspicion from his own actions. However, Araris vote wasn't out of character for him, nor is his defense of sart for the reasons, so I think it's just NAI.

Anyway, to properly commit myself to voting C1, I'm going to put a vote on Fura. The only other persons that have roused my suspicion so far are the young pyromancer, who I don't want to lynch C1, and the god king, whose reticence to get involved seems somewhat out of character.

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17 hours ago, Dot said:

"Aha! You called? Do you need a new shirt sir?"

He stood by the door, a cup of wine in hand. "Oh dear. What's this..."

"Yes, I will need a new shirt, and you will too, once this over."

"For now, do what your class does, take care of your betters."

"Take me somewhere safe."

 

Hey, sorry i am going to be even more inactive, but school in Australia started on the 25th...

so you can imagine, i have less time.

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So I haven't finished my reread of the thread, so ping me if I'm wrong about anything, but from what I can tell, most of the votes on Straw are gut reads. I personally think Straw is a villager, but then again, I always think Straw is a villager and I don't think I've ever played with elim!Straw. I like the analysis, and I think killing the most talkative player for no reason other than being the most talkative player when that is the player's usual playstyle is not the best idea. I haven't seen anything that makes me particularly suspicious of Straw yet, so if anyone is willing to compile evidence against him, go ahead.

I do not find anyone overtly suspicious, so I will not be voting until after a reread of the thread. 

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4 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I'm in Board meetings all until the evening today, but in the interests of getting another comment out before I sit down to do a proper analysis this evening:

A significant part of the discussion this cycle has been on Straw. We've had a string of players vote on him, and a set of players come to his defence.

A day one lynch should always be about information gathering. As much as I've been incredibly impressed by Straw's activity and engagement, the number of interactions he has had with other players suggests to me that we could generate a significant amount of information on D1 by lynching him at this point.

While I am biased since it's my neck on the line, I very much disagree with lynching for information, rather than actually trying to vote on someone suspicious. First of all, lynching me just because I've interacted with a lot of people sends the message that if people are active and interact with others, they will be lynched. I doubt that is the kind of attitude or message that would be helpful to us in the future. Secondly, lynching for information corrupts the information you're trying to gain. People won't vote or defend based on legitimate reads, they'll vote based off of information gain. This makes it easier for eliminators to hide in the crowd, since they don't have to formulate reads, and reduces the amount of information you actually gain. In my opinion, we should always be focusing on the player who's the most suspicious. I'm kind of surprised you'd push for infolynching, since I feel like you should know how weak it is.

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