Straw

Quick Fix 44: Shadows in the Forest

345 posts in this topic

10 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Woo more people.

I was the one who protected you, CadCom.

I would really like to know what kind of attack I blocked.

Okay, you're probably innocent. Drake, we need to lynch Kidpen.

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This is a mess and a half. For being so close to the end I have no idea who anyone is, which is unfortunate.

Kidpen

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Posted (edited)

Looks like we're not in  a good position. If Sart is positioning himself to lynch me for win then gg. Been really busy but let's try this. Kidpen.

Edited by Megasif
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The cycle is over!

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Among the crowd of waiting Shades, the remnants of the crew made their choice.

Obscured by the darkness, Patience, saved from death once, finally died.


Kidpen was lynched. They were a Loyal Crewmember!

CadCom was killed. He was a Loyal Crewmember!

Vote Count:

Kidpen (5): DrakeMarshall, Elbereth, Megasif, Sart, The_God_King
DrakeMarshall (2): Kidpen, Silberfarben

GM Notes:

-The cycle will end on May 17th at 13:00 EST.

-Inactivity warnings for: @Amanuensis, @The_Archivist, @Zillah.

-If there are any inaccuracies with the vote or inactivity count, please let me know.

Player List:

  1. xinoehp512 - Hades Loyal Crewmember

  2. Karnage - Shroud Loyal Crewmember

  3. StrikerEZ - Reverie Loyal Crewmember

  4. Elkanah - Cain Loyal Crewmember with a Medical Kit

  5. The_God_King - Mavet

  6. Elandera - Thankful Loyal Crewmember with a Knife

  7. Lord_Silberfarben - Silber

  8. BrightnessRadiant - Calypso Loyal Crewmember

  9. Kynedath - Maledict Loyal Crewmember

  10. Kidpen - Aradia Loyal Crewmember

  11. A Joe in the Bush - Joseph Loyal Crewmember

  12. Elbereth - Crepuscula

  13. The_Archivist - Archer

  14. Mist - Rona Loyal Crewmember

  15. Sart - Sam Trudite

  16. Zillah - TBD

  17. CadCom - Patience Loyal Crewmember

  18. DrakeMarshall - Verity

  19. Amanuensis - Nok the Bard

  20. Arraenae - Resourceful Smythe Mutineer

  21. Megasif - Mega

  22. Furamirionind - TBD Loyal Crewmember with Silver Powder

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*facepalms*

Yeah there were too many votes on Kidpen at the end.

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I'll try to catch up on previous cycles but it's unlikely. 

Going to go with the assumption that there are 4 elims left and if we mislynch, we lose today.

For now Elbereth

 

 

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Drake I'm sorry but you've been wrong on several occasions. either you're just as lost as I am (which is totally okay) or you're a clever elim. I'm leaning towards elim but I have to be sure

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2 hours ago, The_God_King said:

Drake I'm sorry but you've been wrong on several occasions. either you're just as lost as I am (which is totally okay) or you're a clever elim. I'm leaning towards elim but I have to be sure

Yeah I really, really wish I was actually being a clever elim.

Earlier in the game you asked me if there was any questions I had that I could ask in order to trust you more. Considering the stakes of today's lynch, I am going to ask you the same thing.

 

So, I'll be honest: my prediction is that the village is probably going to lose.

The elims have shown signs of still being active enough to submit kill orders every cycle, and if there are equal or more active elims than villagers, then the game is done. Heck, if we're really unlucky the filter might even take out enough villagers to let the elims reach parity.

For that matter, if God King is a villager our chances of winning have tanked as well, because as understandable as it might have been, they voted for another villager, and the elims can side with that vote to win the game.

Even if the shades unexpectedly come through for us it won't help if we lynch a villager and reach even numbers with the elims.

Even if we get this vote right this cycle, we have to do it again every single cycle until the end of the game if we are going to win. Villages just don't turn the game around from LyLo that often, especially when there are 4 eliminators still left.

 

But let's do some analysis. The only suspect I'm gonna rule out a priori is myself, since I kind of can't not do that.

  1. The_God_King: Village read from their reaction to getting accused earlier in the game, but that only goes so far.

  2. Lord_Silberfarben: Lots of RP early on in the game and participation in the discussion that seemed mostly NAI to me. Kind of a village vibe though?

  3. Elbereth: Conflicted reads. Also interestingly I don't think Elbereth could probably be teammates with Silberfarben, God King, or Megasif.

  4. The_Archivist: Village read from their C1 vote but at this point what you did C1 is only worth so much and I know one of my trust reads was wrong.

  5. Sart: Their C1 vote made them trusted, and while we should probably be second guessing that at this point, most of Sart's later actions have also seemed village to me.

  6. Zillah: Neutral read, but it's also becoming increasingly evident that a fair few elims were hiding among less active players so I kind of suspect them on that basis.

  7. Amanuensis: Suspicious of Aman for similar reasons as Zillah but I also kind of wonder if he might have tried to knife CadCom and I'm skeptical the elims would have a knife. Although the elims attacking CadCom tonight is an IKYK-laden counterpoint to this theory.

  8. Megasif: If I were an elim I would have killed village!Megasif pretty much the instant I thought they wouldn't be protected by a medkit, and I'm wondering why that hasn't happened. Also, probably isn't on a team with Zillah, because Megasif tried to lynch Zillah and one of the only times Zillah voted was on Megasif in retaliation.

A random choice would have a 50% chance of being correct. Unless there aren't actually 4 elims, but in that case we aren't at LyLo either.

I am tempted to vote for God King, on the basis that they voted for somebody I know is a villager during LyLo, and if they even are a villager it might not matter who I vote for regardless.

I am tempted to vote for Megasif, on the basis that the search for elims for 90% of the game has been fruitless, and that is strong evidence that the people who became trusted early on in the game are to blame. I realize that might be similar to God King's reasoning for voting against me.

I am tempted to vote for Elbereth, on the basis that I want to make sure we put together a lynch with numbers behind it because that is the only kind of lynch that can be successful against the elim team at LyLo, and Megasif's vote is the only one I can side with.

I have a feeling that 1 of Elbereth and Megasif is an eliminator and the other one is village. I'm leaning towards the elim being Elbereth but I don't feel that sure about it.

But considering how the game has been going with us systematically lynching a bunch of active villagers, I kind of think that the eliminators must have a pretty high representation among inactive players. I believe the safest lynch is Amanuensis, but I could see there being a case for a different player in the same category. Nobody has actually died to the inactivity filter yet, but I might change my vote if it becomes clear that is going to actually happen.

Thoughts?

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Posted (edited)

At this point, Drake, if you're elim, I accept this loss. But I'm betting that you're not.

If Aman is elim, yes, we may get another day. It might be the safest lynch but we need an elim lynch that'll break the game open. Something like sart flipping elim or in this case, Elbereth flipping elim. If sart is elim, he's done a heck of a play C1 and then turbo lynched villagers and is why both of us are alive.

I take it your blame for the trusted villagers is on me, Sart and BR (BR just in the trusted group, not the blame group). The fact that both me and Sart are alive could be due to many reasons and the simplest is that one of us is an elim or a lot IKYK (wifom) so I'm going to leave Sart for final 3 which is the best case scenario and we may never get there. I have had no agency any Cycle, as (almost) none of the lynches I want have gone through, whereas BR had people follow her onto a vote and likely the reason they were NK'd. (I wanted Archivist, was up for zillah) and TGK was a lynch that was close to happening.

You Aman Sart El being alive means there's elims in this group - perhaps 2. None of these players being NK'd either means the elim team have no experience with these players or they include the team. I'd expect Aman to be more invested

Spoiler

(with Stormlight)

at this point and I don't know his game well enough but he has a good chance of flipping elim nonetheless.

Lynch logic

Elbereth's vote on me and her subsequent reasoning makes no sense from a village's mindset ever. They've also been on the village lynches and made more vote movements and reads. Their reads on players, especially Aman, also makes me think they need to flip first. I'm repeating this but I think El flipping elim breaks the game open due to her activity. Objectively, looking at her game so far, Elbereth is always elim here.

I have zillah, archivist, TGK and silberfan in a similar position and feels like half of these players could be elims, but we've tried and failed in these lynches. I lean TGK village. Leaves the rest at a random chance and I wouldn't be sure where to go.

Therefore, assuming we're in Lylo, we always go Elbereth here.

Hopefully I can stay active this cycle.

 

Edited by Megasif
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Posted (edited)

sorry, drake.

first.

why vote amanuensis?

they will most likely die of inactivity. (sadly)

you seem to be voting the low profile players when the most would agree the elims are the most active.

you had megasif as very suspicious, but instead, you vote an inactive player.

 

sorry if you are village.

Edited by Lord_Silberfarben
did i say mestif? who is that?
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1 hour ago, Megasif said:

At this point, Drake, if you're elim, I accept this loss. But I'm betting that you're not.

If Aman is elim, yes, we may get another day. It might be the safest lynch but we need an elim lynch that'll break the game open. Something like sart flipping elim or in this case, Elbereth flipping elim. If sart is elim, he's done a heck of a play C1 and then turbo lynched villagers and is why both of us are alive.

I take it your blame for the trusted villagers is on me, Sart and BR (BR just in the trusted group, not the blame group). The fact that both me and Sart are alive could be due to many reasons and the simplest is that one of us is an elim or a lot IKYK (wifom) so I'm going to leave Sart for final 3 which is the best case scenario and we may never get there. I have had no agency any Cycle, as (almost) none of the lynches I want have gone through, whereas BR had people follow her onto a vote and likely the reason they were NK'd. (I wanted Archivist, was up for zillah) and TGK was a lynch that was close to happening.

You Aman Sart El being alive means there's elims in this group - perhaps 2. None of these players being NK'd either means the elim team have no experience with these players or they include the team. I'd expect Aman to be more invested

  Reveal hidden contents

(with Stormlight)

at this point and I don't know his game well enough but he has a good chance of flipping elim nonetheless.

Lynch logic

Elbereth's vote on me and her subsequent reasoning makes no sense from a village's mindset ever. They've also been on the village lynches and made more vote movements and reads. Their reads on players, especially Aman, also makes me think they need to flip first. I'm repeating this but I think El flipping elim breaks the game open due to her activity. Objectively, looking at her game so far, Elbereth is always elim here.

I have zillah, archivist, TGK and silberfan in a similar position and feels like half of these players could be elims, but we've tried and failed in these lynches. I lean TGK village. Leaves the rest at a random chance and I wouldn't be sure where to go.

Therefore, assuming we're in Lylo, we always go Elbereth here.

Hopefully I can stay active this cycle.

 

Yeah so I really wanted to vote Elbereth for exactly those reasons, because if we lynch her and she flips elim then I feel pretty good about finding all her teammates.

The thing is I'm still kind of paranoid about you, Megasif. I pretty much agree that if I assumed you were a villager then Elbereth has a high probability of being evil, but I am wary of assuming that.

This post helps, though. I kind of don't suspect you as much. So I guess I'm fine with Elbereth, especially because the village needs to consolidate votes.

4 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

sorry, drake.

first.

why vote amanuensis?

they will most likely die of inactivity. (sadly)

you seem to be voting the low profile players when the most would agree the elims are the most active.

you had mestif as very suspicious, but instead, you vote an inactive player.

 

sorry if you are village.

Le sigh.

The timing of this is not ideal, but for the record I really had decided to vote for Elbereth before this post happened. But obviously now I am keeping my vote on Elbereth. Not only for self-preservation (although obviously in part because of that) but because the weird tacit opposition to the Elbereth lynch makes me think Megasif is on the right track.

If you happen to be a villager and would be interested in hearing my response to these points, here it is:

1. I addressed this in my post. So far nobody has died of inactivity. I said I would change my vote if it looked like they actually would die of inactivity, but a lot of people have been barely avoiding the filter for almost the entire game, and I don't think it's unreasonable to plan for this pattern to continue.

2. No, I don't think most would agree the elims are the most active. I certainly wouldn't:

  • We've been lynching all of the active players for 8 cycles and what do we have to show for it?
  • More importantly, if we supposed your assertion to be true than the village no longer has control over the lynch. It's LyLo so if there are any more inactive villagers than there are inactive eliminators, the eliminators have already achieved parity and the village has lost. If that is the case, then if you are not yourself an eliminator then you should be seriously questioning your role as someone supporting the leading lynch right now.

3. I said there is evidence against Megasif, but I also said that if I was going to vote on one of Megasif or Elbereth it would be Elbereth. Which is what I have done. Is there a particular reason you would like me to vote for Megasif?

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sorry, I don't mean to be disrespectful or even mean... or thick...

I'm just the fool!

I seem to always suspect a team, and you and megasif seem a team, for some gut reason.

i really am worried the elims control voting.

coughlooksatdrakeandmegasifcough

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I don’t overly suspect anybody who is up for lynching. However looking back at more of Drake’s posts, as well as the lynch on Karnage the other day, I think I’m most suspicious of them right now. Drake

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Posted (edited)

5 hours ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

sorry, I don't mean to be disrespectful or even mean... or thick...

I'm just the fool!

I seem to always suspect a team, and you and megasif seem a team, for some gut reason.

i really am worried the elims control voting.

coughlooksatdrakeandmegasifcough

Don't worry about it.

I don't think Megasif and I have been cooperating in any particular way beyond having the same vote this cycle, but it doesn't really matter. I didn't think the village would probably win this cycle anyhow. Lynch needs two votes to turn around, which I doubt will happen, but @Sart @The_God_King if you happen to be around for the end I don't suppose you'd think about it? The number of votes I have right now should strongly suggest that eliminators are voting for me and it would be nice to turn this around if we can.

Before this cycle, I'd have figured Archivist would be the final eliminator after Elbereth, Amanuensis, and Zillah, but I'm genuinely not quite sure whether it's actually you or not. EDIT: Wait no it couldn't be you one of my earlier trust reads has to be wrong it was either Archivist or God King. Interesting.

Anyways good game folks. Like I said before it was fun getting back into SE.

Edited by DrakeMarshall
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6 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Don't worry about it.

I don't think Megasif and I have been cooperating in any particular way beyond having the same vote this cycle, but it doesn't really matter. I didn't think the village would probably win this cycle anyhow. Lynch needs two votes to turn around, which I doubt will happen, but @Sart @The_God_King if you happen to be around for the end I don't suppose you'd think about it? The number of votes I have right now should strongly suggest that eliminators are voting for me and it would be nice to turn this around if we can.

Before this cycle, I'd have figured Archivist would be the final eliminator after Elbereth, Amanuensis, and Zillah, but I'm genuinely not quite sure whether it's actually you or not.

Anyways good game folks. Like I said before it was fun getting back into SE.

Good game. Drake, it was fun.

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Don't think we're getting the lynch we need. Still an interesting game if this indeed is lylo.

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Just now, Sart said:

Good game. Drake, it was fun.

Wait did you actually pull off a D1 bus that perfectly?

I am suitably impressed. You deserve the win.

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Nice Sart lol

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The cycle is over! So is the game!

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