Straw

Quick Fix 44: Shadows in the Forest

345 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Then I use assumption #2. There are certain players whom I trust as villagers, so I am removing them from the suspect pool. The reduced suspect pool is:

  1. Karnage

  2. Lord_Silberfarben

  3. A Joe in the Bush

  4. Elbereth

  5. Zillah

  6. CadCom

  7. Amanuensis

So this is all based on trusting you that you "know" or trust others as villagers. #couldberemovingelims

 

3 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

To be clear, I don't particularly mean to end discussion. You might not agree with some of my assumptions, and my conclusion isn't true unless all of the assumptions I listed are also true. I will own up to the fact that some of my assumptions probably even should be controversial (mainly one or two of my trust reads), and I am definitely not opposed to discussing them with people.

I just saw this but I am keeping the other part on here because I think it needs to be

 

54 minutes ago, Sart said:

Furthermore, the way you've presented it makes it seem like Karnage and Aman are guaranteed to be eliminators. Compared to last cycle, we only have two votes, and both are on Karnage. I'm worried that this is killing discussion. Rereading last cycle, I saw no resistance to the Elkanah vote, and I'm noticing the same thing here. This type of solution just feels too easy. Yes, it would be great if those four combinations were the only possible Elim teams, but I highly doubt that. I've had a strange gut read on you that I haven't been able to explain, and this is just adding to it. You've also been tunneling on Karnage like crazy, and honestly I'm starting to come around on him. For those reasons, I'm voting on you

Hallelujia, Amen. Just saw this as well. You explained it perfectly.

---

I feel as if Drake (don't get me wrong, you seem great) might have just been trying to mislead, the newer player #me and others. 

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I'm not sure how much I agree with the Drake lynch, I can see where the suspicion on them comes from. However they themselves said that they were working off of assumptions and even admitted that they suspected not everyone would agree. They are doing similar analysis that most players do, just in quite a unique fashion. I would be more suspicious if they couldn't back up their logic quite as well as they did. Outside of strict mafia, I think that the way they went about their logic is quite fascinating. As well I think that lynching them because they had such a high number of people on their trusted list and used that to influence their actions and voting, means we can essentially just lynch anybody who has a large number of people looped into a trusted category. It doesn't seem much different than having a list of every player, the same concept is there, it is just a different way of organising it and setting it up. 

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1 hour ago, Sart said:

Drake, I disagree with your process of elimination. Let me break down your assumptions.

It's fine that you disagree. I made a pretty conspicuous post intending to spark discussion and I was kind of getting irritated when it had the opposite response.

However, even if I'm wrong, I'm not really seeing how you tie that to my alignment. Seriously what do I even gain from doing something like this as an elim?

You may disagree with my basis for casting votes, but I strongly disagree with yours as well.

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Here's where my problem lies. You've cleared half of the village based on your trust list. If we assume there are four living eliminators, your trust list most likely includes an eliminator. From a purely statistical standpoint, there's only a 3% chance that you've excluded the traitors. Even if we accept that you're making this in good faith, and that you are telling the truth about being a villager, that only brings the chances up to 7%. And while I agree with some of your trust list, specifically myself and Megasif, I'm not willing to bet that the other four are all good.

Yes and no. I'm not really clearing them so much as I'm choosing to gamble a single lynch on those people being villagers. Like I said to Silberfarben, if I'm off base about Karnage then you can freely ignore me or lynch me or whatever. I think it's the right point in the game to be making those kind of calls.

I trust those people, so for the purposes of my own voting, I am going to exclude them from my suspect list. I was clear that if you did not accept the premise, my conclusion was invalid. I was also obviously still going to present my own position as the correct one but I think I did a fairly okay job of laying out the limitations to my findings.

I disagree with your numbers, though.

The main issue I have with your percentages is that you are calculating your probabilities under the assumption that my trust reads are completely random. I did not choose that players at random and I obviously believe that my choosing process has significantly better than random levels of accuracy :P I have a high level of confidence that each of those people are villagers.

The other issue I have with them is that I don't think those calculations are quite correct? Even if you did assume that my trust reads were random. I'm pretty sure the probability of all 4 eliminators being found in a random sample of 7 players from the total set of 13 living players = (7 choose 4) / (13 choose 4) = approximately 5%, and if you were to add the 2 players you said you were okay with clearing it goes up to (9 choose 4) / (13 choose 4) = about 18%, and if you accept that I am also acting in good faith it goes up to 29%. Still not great odds, if you don't agree at all with any of my other trust reads, but also not the same as the numbers you were representing.

2 hours ago, Sart said:

Furthermore, the way you've presented it makes it seem like Karnage and Aman are guaranteed to be eliminators. Compared to last cycle, we only have two votes, and both are on Karnage. I'm worried that this is killing discussion. Rereading last cycle, I saw no resistance to the Elkanah vote, and I'm noticing the same thing here. This type of solution just feels too easy. Yes, it would be great if those four combinations were the only possible Elim teams, but I highly doubt that. I've had a strange gut read on you that I haven't been able to explain, and this is just adding to it. You've also been tunneling on Karnage like crazy, and honestly I'm starting to come around on him. For those reasons, I'm voting on you

I've said that I'm pretty confident that they are eliminators, because I am pretty confident that they are eliminators. I did not say this without reservations however.

I am equally concerned by the lack of discussion. I think the mounting deaths of active players may be equally to blame, but even so, I probably would have avoided making that post had I known that the discussion would die after I did. I am honestly pretty glad that you are pushing for more discussion, even if I find myself in a position of being your adversary in that discussion.

I can't speak very much to a gut read except to say that it is incorrect.

I have been vocal about wanting Karnage lynched for the last few cycles, but that is because my reasons to suspect Karnage haven't changed while people have been lynching people I actually trusted over Karnage for the last few cycles. It is possible that confirmation bias has impacted my decision making process, but I have definitely gone out of my way to analyze every living player and not just Karnage.

Honestly I wouldn't mind getting lynched and taking the back seat on this game; it's been fun to play SE again and I'll be keeping an eye on the signups for more SE games, but I've probably spent too much time on this game. But I truly think Karnage or Aman is the best lynch for the cycle, and I think I've explained why I think that in good faith.

Anyways somebody please break the tie if you want a lynch to happen at all this cycle.

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I'll try to wake up early and look at the lynch and perhaps reevaluate my vote, but could someone post a vote count overnight?

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Posted (edited)

Karnage: (3) Drake, Lord Silberfarben, Zillah

Drake: (2) Sart, Karnage 

CadCom: (1) Joe Bush

I personally would rather a lynch happen, and as I outlined above I don't think there is any real basis for the Drake lynch. Karnage, My vote is on you for now, at least to break up the tie. If things change overnight then I might retract/change my vote. 

Ninja'd by CadCom. @CadCom I was coincidentally working on the lynch count when you ninja'd me. 

Edited by Zillah
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3 hours ago, Karnage said:

So this is all based on trusting you that you "know" or trust others as villagers. #couldberemovingelims

 

I just saw this but I am keeping the other part on here because I think it needs to be

 

Hallelujia, Amen. Just saw this as well. You explained it perfectly.

---

I feel as if Drake (don't get me wrong, you seem great) might have just been trying to mislead, the newer player #me and others. 

Wow, no. Full disclosure I don't think I could point at a single other one of Karnage's posts. Like at all. I have no memory of any of them and will be looking back to find them.

However, this posts feels like it's screaming elim in my face. Not in any way I can explain, that's just the vibe I'm getting. Maybe it's just cause Karnage is a new player, but I dont think so.

Karnage, if you are village, sorry! Sometimes the way new players talk feels elimy to me, either because they're not used to the meta or I'm not used to their meta.

I'll be prepared to change my vote in the morning assuming I don't wake up *too* late so don't take my vote as set in stone.

Feeling a wee bit wary of Sart as well. Also concerned Drake may be pocketing me but I'm like 83% sure that's just paranoia.

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Posted (edited)

I was considering joining Joe's vote on CadCom, but with only a few hours left before turnover, I decided it would be better to polarize the lynch between the two people trying to kill each other. Though it is hard for me to be objective when Drake has neatly fit me into his suspicions, I find the reasoning he presented today as a bit contrived. Sart's logic is sound in comparison, and with no one else making an effort to save Karnage, I can't help but feel if this is a V/E situation, Karnage being an underdog makes him the more likely villager.

Edited by Amanuensis
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It seems wrong to vote on people because of calculations that are based on assumptions, since the whole point of math is that it's completely accurate if done right. If you introduce uncertainty into it, it debases the whole calculation, and you can't trust it. Drake also tunneled Karnage, who I already said I don't get an elim vibe from, not even from that vote on Mist you found so suspicious for some reason. For those reasons, I vote on Drake.

Unfortunately, I'm an idiot, and didn't calculate the timezones right. I won't be able to participate at all next cycle and during some of this one.

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hmm, a tie.

I hope someone breaks it.

i really dont think an elim would seriously tunnel so much.

teammates would not allow it.

idk

i hope someone breaks the tie.

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Karnage

 

I know we're coming up on a hard barrier pretty soon but I've come to have a small amount of trust towards Drake. 

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I'm more trusting of Drake than Karnage.

 

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Vote Count: 

Drake Marshall: (4) Sart, Karnage, Amanuensis, The Archivist

Karnage: (6) DrakeMarshall, Lord Silberfarben, Zillah, Kidpen, Karnage, JoeBush

CadCom: (0) JoeBush

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Sorry guys, I woke up later than I wanted, so I didn't have time to research. I'll just put my vote on Karnage who I've been more suspicious of of the two. Sorry if you're village. 

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The cycle is over!

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Since the first time they had killed someone, the crew hadn't had any luck finding the mutineers. This time was no different.

In the night, two people were attacked. One was saved, but the other died.


Karnage was lynched. They were a Loyal Crewmember!

CadCom was attacked, but survived!

A Joe in the Bush was killed. He was a Loyal Crewmember!

Vote Count:

Karnage (7): CadCom, DrakeMarshall, Joe, Kidpen, Silberfarben, The_God_King, Zillah
DrakeMarshall (4): Amanuensis, Karnage, Sart, The_Archivist

GM Notes:

-Kills are not differentiated.

-The cycle will end on May 16th at 13:00 EST.

-Inactivity warnings for: @Elbereth, @Megasif.

-If there are any inaccuracies with the vote or inactivity count, please let me know.

Player List:

  1. xinoehp512 - Hades Loyal Crewmember

  2. Karnage - Shroud Loyal Crewmember

  3. StrikerEZ - Reverie Loyal Crewmember

  4. Elkanah - Cain Loyal Crewmember with a Medical Kit

  5. The_God_King - Mavet

  6. Elandera - Thankful Loyal Crewmember with a Knife

  7. Lord_Silberfarben - Silber

  8. BrightnessRadiant - Calypso Loyal Crewmember

  9. Kynedath - Maledict Loyal Crewmember

  10. Kidpen - Aradia

  11. A Joe in the Bush - Joseph Loyal Crewmember

  12. Elbereth - Crepuscula

  13. The_Archivist - Archer

  14. Mist - Rona Loyal Crewmember

  15. Sart - Sam Trudite

  16. Zillah - TBD

  17. CadCom - Patience

  18. DrakeMarshall - Verity

  19. Amanuensis - Nok the Bard

  20. Arraenae - Resourceful Smythe Mutineer

  21. Megasif - Mega

  22. Furamirionind - TBD Loyal Crewmember with Silver Powder

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1 hour ago, Straw said:

Karnage was lynched. They were a Loyal Crewmember!

Well, that clearly didn't work out.

Most likely that means at least one of my trust reads is an eliminator, but it isn't the only possibility.

It was worth a shot anyway. True to my word you can do whatever you want in the aftermath since I was wrong.

I apologize if I was seen as taking too much control over the lynch as that definitely wasn't my intention. I can at times state my opinions rather forcefully.

1 hour ago, Straw said:

CadCom was attacked, but survived!

A Joe in the Bush was killed. He was a Loyal Crewmember!

I don't suppose somebody would be willing to step forward and take credit for using a knife on one of these two?

From Aman's post last cycle I wouldn't be surprised if they had planned to knife CadCom, but I could imagine somebody suspecting Joe enough to use a knife as well. Seeing as CadCom is still alive, it would probably be useful to know if they were targeted by the eliminator kill or not.

Anyways the game is 7 - 4 right now if we believe the game was set up with 5 eliminators.

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*villainous laughter*

At this rate everybody else will die to the inactivity filter and I will secure a village victory by virtue of being the last one standing :P Keep it up, guys. But seriously please don't

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2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

*villainous laughter*

At this rate everybody else will die to the inactivity filter and I will secure a village victory by virtue of being the last one standing :P Keep it up, guys. But seriously please don't

Seriously, where the heck is everyone? I get that it's Friday night, but this is ridiculous. And now I feel like a jerk voting for Drake, because he's the only other player around.  My main reasoning is the lynch last cycle. It was very contentious, and to me, it reads like a village vs. Elim lynch. I suspect Drake and The God King are on the same team, and The God King stepped in to save him.

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35 minutes ago, Sart said:

Seriously, where the heck is everyone? I get that it's Friday night, but this is ridiculous. And now I feel like a jerk voting for Drake, because he's the only other player around.  My main reasoning is the lynch last cycle. It was very contentious, and to me, it reads like a village vs. Elim lynch. I suspect Drake and The God King are on the same team, and The God King stepped in to save him.

Yeah I can see why you might think that.

Would it change your mind if I said I was okay with lynching God King? They aren't my first choice by a fair sight, but if we are the only people who are going to vote this cycle then we might want to agree on somebody. And you can understand why I might not want that somebody to be me :P

I'm holding out hope that more people will post but yeah.

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Alright. Drake Marshall. I've been confident about every lynch and gotten then all wrong, so now let's try a lynch I'm not as confident about.

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K I'm not feeling the Drake lynch right now. I might be up for it after u have some time to think about it. 

 It's a busy weekend, so I wont have much time to do analysis. But were one cycoe away from lylo. So we need to get someone soon. 

Regarding my attack and survival, I would like any info on that please. If anyone claims to have attacked me I think they would most likely he cleared and also whoever protected me might also he cleared, or they're teammates and i am being scapegoated into a wgg

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Woo more people.

I was the one who protected you, CadCom.

I would really like to know what kind of attack I blocked.

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I am signing off for the night.

If you insist on lynching me over last cycle then fine, I didn't expect it to come to this. But since we are that much closer to LyLo you will be making a graver mistake than the one I made.

Also, Kidpen.

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*sigh* I hate my nonexistent sleep schedule. Kidpen, I’ll try to be back on in the morning but don’t count on it. 

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19 hours ago, Straw said:

CadCom was attacked, but survived!

A Joe in the Bush was killed. He was a Loyal Crewmember!

I assume this means one was attacked by elim, and one by a knife.

I am sorry i fell to this.

i really suspect cad com and drake now.

sorry, i really liked your calculations.

but...

welll.

i am now very very sure of a cadcom-drake team.

we will see.

 

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