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Quick Fix 44: Shadows in the Forest


Straw

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Well. I voted Megasif mainly to see what reactions there would be, and I don’t know what to make of the results. On the one hand, this:

11 hours ago, Zillah said:

EDIT: Megasif's vote on me feels a lot like they were trying to hide behind Joe Bush's logic, so they could get a vote in without having to say something that might make them suspicious, so for that I'm going to vote on them this cycle.

Feels like an elim hoping that Megasif might get lynched, especially with her being in danger as well. 

On the other, a train built up on Elk rather strongly - I doubt he’s evil, and I suspect there are eliminators in that vote, but I don’t know whether they’re trying to protect Megasif or Zillah or just didn’t think they could get away with lynching Megasif or what. 

8 hours ago, Kidpen said:

I don't like any of the lynches here. Elkanah has felt relatively neutral and zillah feels village. That being said between the two of them I prefer Elkanah and I want to make sure a tie doesn't happen. Plus, like, I really feel like Elkanah hasn't made many AI posts and that feels like it might be deliberate?

This also reads evil to me, not sure I can explain why. 

So I think Zillah and Kidpen are my current suspects. I doubt it’ll make a difference at this point, but I’ll vote Kidpen (since I’d rather not lynch Zillah immediately after she came back, which is something that should be encouraged). More likely to vote Zillah next cycle though. 

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Wait I'm actually awake before the cycle ends?

And... unfortunately nothing has happened. I'm actually maybe a little bit more OK with lynching Elkanah if anything? These last few posts have given me a gut elim read. But now I'm second guessing myself, so idk. I definitely still think Elkanah is the best option.

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1 minute ago, Elkanah said:

Lord can stand by me in saying I'm not salty :P I take salt like a pro.

 

See but this feels good!

Man, I am really not doing very well this game and based on my track record you're probably village. So, sorry! Not a ton I can do about it now though, there's about 12 minutes left if I've counted correctly.

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Sorry for not doing that analysis I promised, I'll try to get it next cycle.

Rollover comes around, and once again I have no Idea who to vote on. I think my problem is that I don't read enough into posts, and thus can't form suspicions. But I don't want there to be a tie again, so I guess I'll vote on Elkanah, even if it probably won't be a tie anyway.

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6 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

You think Elkanah will give more info than the person who escaped the lynch twice?

I would have zero problems with switching to Karnage, who I have already voted for twice in a row, but yes I think there is a fair amount of information to be had with lynching Elkanah, and I didn't want to fight to switch the lynch from Elkanah to Karnage when Elkanah seems like an acceptable choice to me, certainly more so than some of the previous people who have been lynched in this game.

3 hours ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

I don't know why I don't like this Elkanah wagon.

 

"The last I saw there were maybe 3 votes? When I checked out for the night. Enough to lynch someone but also enough time for people to mount a defense or alternate lynch targets they'd push if she'd been an elim"

^^^ Quote from Brightness Radiant^^^

it is something BR mentioned, with so many players voting Elkanah, it is very likely some of them are mutineers...

So Elkanah is most probably village.

These big bandwagons are usually on villagers, or elim that did something so suspicious even their teammates were forced to vote them.

 

I might be wrong tho, i don't even remember why this vote was started

 

EDIT:

upon closer examination, i see that the votes are more tied than i thought, with megasif and Elkanah being the highest (i think. it is so hard to count the votes)

does anyone have a vote tally??

Yeah so I've also been a little on the fence about the degree of opposition to the Elkanah lynch. It's part of why I am reassessing things at the end of the cycle.

The vote is 6 - 4 between Elkanah and Megasif, so yeah I would not say the lynch has been too easy, because I don't think any one person had gotten more than 3 votes before this cycle and now the level of engagement with this vote is much higher.

7 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

Wait I'm actually awake before the cycle ends?

Oh, this is such a mood.

4 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Lord can stand by me in saying I'm not salty :P I take salt like a pro.

Whatever comes of this lynch, you've been a good sport about it. I am sorry if I got this one wrong.

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1 minute ago, Elkanah said:

You did, but I'll forgive you this time ;)

...and I actually believe you.

Crap.

Not that it's going to do any good but Elkanah.

I'm not switching to Megasif though because I am pretty sure Megasif is village and I don't want another tie.

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The crew had surrounded Cain. They hadn't seen him save anyone from death with his fancy medical kit, so he must have been a Mutineer! Right!? Nope.

The strange man, I In Rad Uniform, had also been killed. He had some silver powder on him.


Elkanah was lynched. They were a Loyal Crewmember with a Medical Kit!

Furamirionind was killed. He was a Loyal Crewmember with Silver Powder!

Vote Count:

Elkanah (6): CadCom, Joe, Kidpen, Sart, The_Archivist, The_God_King
Megasif (2): Elkanah, Zillah
Karnage (1): Furamirionind
Kidpen (1): Elbereth
Silberfarben (1): Karnage
Zillah (1): Megasif

GM Notes:

-The cycle will end on May 15th at 13:00 EST.

-Inactivity warnings for: no one! Good job with activity! :)

-If there are any inaccuracies with the vote or inactivity count, please let me know.

-"I In Rad Uniform" is an anagram of "Furamirionind".

Player List:

  1. xinoehp512 - Hades Loyal Crewmember

  2. Karnage - Shroud

  3. StrikerEZ - Reverie Loyal Crewmember

  4. Elkanah - Cain Loyal Crewmember with a Medical Kit

  5. The_God_King - Mavet

  6. Elandera - Thankful Loyal Crewmember with a Knife

  7. Lord_Silberfarben - Silber

  8. BrightnessRadiant - Calypso Loyal Crewmember

  9. Kynedath - Maledict Loyal Crewmember

  10. Kidpen - Aradia

  11. A Joe in the Bush - Joseph

  12. Elbereth - Crepuscula

  13. The_Archivist - Archer

  14. Mist - Rona Loyal Crewmember

  15. Sart - Sam Trudite

  16. Zillah - TBD

  17. CadCom - Patience

  18. DrakeMarshall - Verity

  19. Amanuensis - Nok the Bard

  20. Arraenae - Resourceful Smythe Mutineer

  21. Megasif - Mega

  22. Furamirionind - TBD Loyal Crewmember with Silver Powder

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Requiescat In Pace.

Anyways the way I see it the village is officially losing the game at this point so lets that around yeah?

 

Three Assumptions

  1. I am pretty sure a game with 22 players would have 5 eliminators. That means there are 4 eliminators left.
  2. There are a handful of people that I trust:
    • God King - His response to Elbereth's accusation seemed genuine.
    • Kidpen - Thought that the eliminator faction was shades, which I really don't think a mutineer would do.
    • Archivist - Was active at the end of the first cycle but made no attempt to either save or bus Rae.
    • Sart - Flipped the vote against Rae during the last hour of the first cycle.
    • Megasif - Placed the second vote against Rae that made her a serious lynch candidate for the first time.
    • DrakeMarshall - I get to see this guy's role PM.
  3. There are a handful of people I don't think could both be eliminators:
    • CadCom has been going after Karnage for several cycles.
    • Joe attempted to lead a lynch on Zillah.
    • Aman tried to break the tied vote against CadCom at the last second.
      • It has occurred to me that this could have been posted too late on purpose, but given the rushed nature of the post I'm inclined to give the benefit of the doubt.
    • Silberfarben arguing with Elbereth about whether El's vote was a poke vote or not doesn't seem like an interaction between teammates.

 

Implications

I can do a bit of math to narrow down the suspects. I've calculated every possible eliminator team configuration that has 4 living players, does not include any of the players that I trust, and does not include pairs of players that I don't think could be on an eliminator team together.

The possible eliminator teams are:

  • Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Aman
  • Karnage, Silberfarben, Zillah, Aman
  • Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, Aman
  • Karnage, Elbereth, Zillah, Aman

So, wow. I was hoping this little exercise would let me shrink the pool of suspects but I didn't expect it would confirm both Karnage and Aman to be elims. Karnage I already suspected, but Aman not really.

But I'm pretty confident about those 3 assumptions I made, and this conclusion necessarily follows from those assumptions.

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1 hour ago, Straw said:

Note: the tag "supplies are gone" doesn't necessarily mean that all the items are gone.

So either all the med kits are gone, or all of the silver powder. Or this is the GMs messing with us and it is all the items:P. But I'm more inclined to believe the first options.

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1 minute ago, The_Archivist said:

So either all the med kits are gone, or all of the silver powder.

It doesn't necessarily mean that either. It's just saying that people died and they have items. If you people keep on trying to get game info from tags I'm just going to start putting blatantly untrue things in the tags. :P

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3 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

The possible eliminator teams are:

  • Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Aman
  • Karnage, Silberfarben, Zillah, Aman
  • Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, Aman
  • Karnage, Elbereth, Zillah, Aman

This honestly seems pretty reasonable. Obviously I am not an eliminator, But I'd feel pretty good about lynching the second set.

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hmmm, cough.

coughnotmecough

3 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

The possible eliminator teams are:

  • Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Aman
  • Karnage, Silberfarben, Zillah, Aman
  • Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, Aman
  • Karnage, Elbereth, Zillah, Aman

I really dont trust this.(not because im in two of those)

to me, it seems like elim trying to throw blame around.

but if we lynch Karnage @Karnage and we see they are elim...

if they are instead innocent...

we know something is wrong with drake's reasoning or calculations.

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Just now, Lord_Silberfarben said:

hmmm, cough.

coughnotmecough

I really dont trust this.(not because im in two of those)

to me, it seems like elim trying to throw blame around.

but if we lynch Karnage @Karnage and we see they are elim...

if they are instead innocent...

we know something is wrong with drake's reasoning or calculations.

Fair enough.

I can walk you through the calculation I did, if that would help at all. I neglected to show my work for the sake of brevity, but despite taking up rather a lot of space the calculation is actually quite simple.

But I'm also fine with things as they stand. I agree that if Karnage turns out to be innocent then obviously my reasoning was incorrect.

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5 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I can walk you through the calculation I did, if that would help at all.

Please!

if it is not much trouble.

And i am not diminishing the value of this, i just think it is slightly suspicious.:P

 

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45 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Please!

if it is not much trouble.

And i am not diminishing the value of this, i just think it is slightly suspicious.:P

Ooh fun okay lets do this :)

It's totally fair to ask me to show my work; I probably should have anticipated it honestly.

Here are my calculations:

Spoiler

I start with a list of the currently living players:

  1. Karnage

  2. The_God_King

  3. Lord_Silberfarben

  4. Kidpen

  5. A Joe in the Bush

  6. Elbereth

  7. The_Archivist

  8. Sart

  9. Zillah

  10. CadCom

  11. DrakeMarshall

  12. Amanuensis

  13. Megasif

Then I use assumption #2. There are certain players whom I trust as villagers, so I am removing them from the suspect pool. The reduced suspect pool is:

  1. Karnage

  2. Lord_Silberfarben

  3. A Joe in the Bush

  4. Elbereth

  5. Zillah

  6. CadCom

  7. Amanuensis

Then I use assumption #1. I think there are 4 surviving eliminators, so I will look at every possible choice of 4 players from this set of 7 suspects:

  1. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Elbereth
  2. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Zillah
  3. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, CadCom
  4. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Amanuensis
  5. Karnage, Silberfarben, Elbereth, Zillah
  6. Karnage, Silberfarben, Elbereth, CadCom
  7. Karnage, Silberfarben, Elbereth, Amanuensis
  8. Karnage, Silberfarben, Zillah, CadCom
  9. Karnage, Silberfarben, Zillah, Amanuensis
  10. Karnage, Silberfarben, CadCom, Amanuensis
  11. Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, Zillah
  12. Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, CadCom
  13. Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, Amanuensis
  14. Karnage, Joe, Zillah, CadCom
  15. Karnage, Joe, Zillah, Amanuensis
  16. Karnage, Joe, CadCom, Amanuensis
  17. Karnage, Elbereth, Zillah, CadCom
  18. Karnage, Elbereth, Zillah, Amanuensis
  19. Karnage, Elbereth, CadCom, Amanuensis
  20. Karnage, Zillah, CadCom, Amanuensis
  21. Silberfarben, Joe, Elbereth, Zillah
  22. Silberfarben, Joe, Elbereth, CadCom
  23. Silberfarben, Joe, Elbereth, Amanuensis
  24. Silberfarben, Joe, Zillah, CadCom
  25. Silberfarben, Joe, Zillah, Amanuensis
  26. Silberfarben, Joe, CadCom, Amanuensis
  27. Silberfarben, Elbereth, Zillah, CadCom
  28. Silberfarben, Elbereth, Zillah, Amanuensis
  29. Silberfarben, Elbereth, CadCom, Amanuensis
  30. Silberfarben, Zillah, CadCom, Amanuensis
  31. Joe, Elbereth, Zillah, CadCom
  32. Joe, Elbereth, Zillah, Amanuensis
  33. Joe, Elbereth, CadCom, Amanuensis
  34. Joe, Zillah, CadCom, Amanuensis
  35. Elbereth, Zillah, CadCom, Amanuensis

Since the order in which we choose them doesn't matter, there are 35 possible choices of eliminator team.

Then I use assumption #3 and start throwing out possible teams that make two players into eliminator teammates who I don't think could possibly be eliminator teammates:

  1. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Elbereth                 #Silberfarben + Elbereth
  2. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Zillah                      #Joe + Zillah
  3. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, CadCom                #Karnage + CadCom
  4. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Amanuensis
  5. Karnage, Silberfarben, Elbereth, Zillah               #Silberfarben + Elbereth
  6. Karnage, Silberfarben, Elbereth, CadCom         #Silberfarben + Elbereth AND Karnage + CadCom
  7. Karnage, Silberfarben, Elbereth, Amanuensis   #Silberfarben + Elbereth
  8. Karnage, Silberfarben, Zillah, CadCom              #Karnage + CadCom
  9. Karnage, Silberfarben, Zillah, Amanuensis
  10. Karnage, Silberfarben, CadCom, Amanuensis   #Karnage + CadCom AND CadCom + Aman
  11. Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, Zillah                             #Joe + Zillah
  12. Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, CadCom                       #Karnage + CadCom
  13. Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, Amanuensis
  14. Karnage, Joe, Zillah, CadCom                             #Karnage + CadCom AND Joe + Zillah
  15. Karnage, Joe, Zillah, Amanuensis                       #Joe + Zillah
  16. Karnage, Joe, CadCom, Amanuensis                 #Karnage + CadCom AND CadCom + Aman
  17. Karnage, Elbereth, Zillah, CadCom                     #Karnage + CadCom
  18. Karnage, Elbereth, Zillah, Amanuensis
  19. Karnage, Elbereth, CadCom, Amanuensis          #Karnage + CadCom AND CadCom + Aman
  20. Karnage, Zillah, CadCom, Amanuensis               #Karnage + CadCom AND CadCom + Aman
  21. Silberfarben, Joe, Elbereth, Zillah                        #Silberfarben + Elbereth AND Joe + Zillah
  22. Silberfarben, Joe, Elbereth, CadCom                  #Silberfarben + Elbereth
  23. Silberfarben, Joe, Elbereth, Amanuensis             #Silberfarben + Elbereth
  24. Silberfarben, Joe, Zillah, CadCom                       #Joe + Zillah
  25. Silberfarben, Joe, Zillah, Amanuensis                 #Joe + Zillah
  26. Silberfarben, Joe, CadCom, Amanuensis            #CadCom + Aman
  27. Silberfarben, Elbereth, Zillah, CadCom                #Silberfarben + Elbereth
  28. Silberfarben, Elbereth, Zillah, Amanuensis           #Silberfarben + Elbereth
  29. Silberfarben, Elbereth, CadCom, Amanuensis     #Silberfarben + Elbereth AND CadCom + Aman
  30. Silberfarben, Zillah, CadCom, Amanuensis          #CadCom + Aman
  31. Joe, Elbereth, Zillah, CadCom                              #Joe + Zillah
  32. Joe, Elbereth, Zillah, Amanuensis                        #Joe + Zillah
  33. Joe, Elbereth, CadCom, Amanuensis                   #CadCom + Aman
  34. Joe, Zillah, CadCom, Amanuensis                        #Joe + Zillah AND CadCom + Aman
  35. Elbereth, Zillah, CadCom, Amanuensis                #CadCom + Aman

That leaves me with a shortlist of possible eliminator teams:

  1. Karnage, Silberfarben, Joe, Amanuensis
  2. Karnage, Silberfarben, Zillah, Amanuensis
  3. Karnage, Joe, Elbereth, Amanuensis
  4. Karnage, Elbereth, Zillah, Amanuensis

And that's it. It's kind of neat how the number of possibilities really shrinks down with just a few starting points to go off of.

To be clear, I don't particularly mean to end discussion. You might not agree with some of my assumptions, and my conclusion isn't true unless all of the assumptions I listed are also true. I will own up to the fact that some of my assumptions probably even should be controversial (mainly one or two of my trust reads), and I am definitely not opposed to discussing them with people.

Edited by DrakeMarshall
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1 minute ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

interesting, thanks.

I do think some of your assumptions are controversial.

like kidpen, or megasif.

also, none of your possibilities include cadcom. which is strange, since cad is in your not trusted list.

Indeed, Kidpen and Megasif were exactly the ones I had in mind. I stand by those reads but I don't think everyone would necessarily agree with them.

And yes, the lack of any possible eliminator team including CadCom was one of the unexpected results I found from running through the possibilities :) I had basically no read whatsoever on CadCom themself, but somehow the interactions and movements of the people around CadCom prove them innocent.

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Drake, I disagree with your process of elimination. Let me break down your assumptions.

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

1. I am pretty sure a game with 22 players would have 5 eliminators. That means there are 4 eliminators left.

I don't disagree here. Six would be too many, and four would be too few, especially with the shade roleblock.

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

3. There are a handful of people I don't think could both be eliminators:

  • CadCom has been going after Karnage for several cycles.
  • Joe attempted to lead a lynch on Zillah.
  • Aman tried to break the tied vote against CadCom at the last second.
    • It has occurred to me that this could have been posted too late on purpose, but given the rushed nature of the post I'm inclined to give the benefit of the doubt.
  • Silberfarben arguing with Elbereth about whether El's vote was a poke vote or not doesn't seem like an interaction between teammates.

I also agree with these assumptions. I could maybe see Silberfarben and Elbereth be on a team, but I'm willing to asume that they are not.

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

2. There are a handful of people that I trust:

  • God King - His response to Elbereth's accusation seemed genuine.
  • Kidpen - Thought that the eliminator faction was shades, which I really don't think a mutineer would do.
  • Archivist - Was active at the end of the first cycle but made no attempt to either save or bus Rae.
  • Sart - Flipped the vote against Rae during the last hour of the first cycle.
  • Megasif - Placed the second vote against Rae that made her a serious lynch candidate for the first time.
  • DrakeMarshall - I get to see this guy's role PM.

Here's where my problem lies. You've cleared half of the village based on your trust list. If we assume there are four living eliminators, your trust list most likely includes an eliminator. From a purely statistical standpoint, there's only a 3% chance that you've excluded the traitors. Even if we accept that you're making this in good faith, and that you are telling the truth about being a villager, that only brings the chances up to 7%. And while I agree with some of your trust list, specifically myself and Megasif, I'm not willing to bet that the other four are all good.

Furthermore, the way you've presented it makes it seem like Karnage and Aman are guaranteed to be eliminators. Compared to last cycle, we only have two votes, and both are on Karnage. I'm worried that this is killing discussion. Rereading last cycle, I saw no resistance to the Elkanah vote, and I'm noticing the same thing here. This type of solution just feels too easy. Yes, it would be great if those four combinations were the only possible Elim teams, but I highly doubt that. I've had a strange gut read on you that I haven't been able to explain, and this is just adding to it. You've also been tunneling on Karnage like crazy, and honestly I'm starting to come around on him. For those reasons, I'm voting on you

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30 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Now we have resistance :P

That's always the trouble with that argument. You can think it yourself, but as soon as you post it, it becomes an invalid argument for everyone else. I do agree though, and trust Sart, so I'm going to move my vote to CadCom. That should give 3 options for the lynch, and hopefully force more people to post and vote.

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