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Quick Fix 44: Shadows in the Forest


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20 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

gut elim read on kidpen

What's with this post? It doesnt feel like your typical style of playing to leave such a short post like that. I see it as NAI, but very much not what I was expecting. 

What I find interesting about Sart's post is how the inactive people all have different reads. Sart read me as elim, but Aman as village and other inactives as neutral. I hardly think this is fair treatment, but then again, in a game where biases and suspicions run amok, it's very difficult to be completely fair unless theres undisputed evidence of an elim. Let's see. The most suspicious of the votes on mist were definitely karnage and kidpen in my opinion. So that makes them top on my list. (Maybe that's where fura's gut elim read came from)

@The_God_King, I'm interested why you find fura suspicious? 

As for myself, my suspicions lie with karnage, kidpen, drake OR megasif (but not both), and not necessarily in that order. The longer I think about kidpen, the more I lean back toward village, but still on the elim side of the scale. (Mainly because of their post this cycle about shades)

Anyway for now I'll put my vote on karnage but I will try to take a second look before I finalize that. 

Edit:vote count

Cadcom 3

Karnage 2

Edited by CadCom
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I will vote Archivist for now. Mostly to get you playing again. I realize there is not much to analyze, but talking is the only way to get there. I don't find Cadcom suspicious, less suspicious even than Karnage, so if there is a tie there, I'd break it in Cadcom's favor. (How's that for drawing lines? Maybe we're evil together????:ph34r: But then why would I say this in the thread??!! :blink:)

Edit

Poke @The_Archivist

Edited by Elkanah
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Sorry for my part in the inactivity everyone :( I had a busier weekend than I expected, and my roommate showed up yesterday after being stuck with his parents since the quarantine, so we have been catching up. I'm behind on my writing for this week too, so while I cant promise to be pumping out essays, I will be more involved going forward.

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41 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I will vote Archivist for now. Mostly to get you playing again.

Right. But I warn you, I'm pretty tired, so it might not be so coherent.

 

BR: I have a village read for starting the lynch on Arrae and other things I'll try to remember.

CadCom: The lynch formed as a poke/information after he didn't post much.

Karnage: I didn't analyse the posts so much, but from a quick glance it doesn't seem too suspicious to me.

 

I don't want to vote on CadCom, because I have basically zero information, and I couldn't glean much from the little there is. Voting for Karnage will cause a tie at this point and I'm not even suspicious to me. I guess I'll vote for Fura again even though there is no chance of a lynch forming because the possible lynches aren't people I want to vote on.

14 minutes ago, Megasif said:

I can go with this

Archivist

May I ask why you're suspicious of me?

Edited by The_Archivist
a word that didn't make sense
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5 minutes ago, The_Archivist said:

Right. But I warn you, I'm pretty tired, so it might not be so coherent.

 

BR: I have a village read for starting the lynch on Arrae and other things I'll try to remember.

CadCom: The lynch formed as a poke/information after he didn't post much.

Karnage: I didn't analyse the posts so much, but from a quick glance it doesn't seem too suspicious to me.

 

I don't want to vote on CadCom, because I have basically zero information, and I couldn't glean much from that. Voting for Karnage will cause a tie at this point and I'm not even suspicious to me. I guess I'll vote for Fura again even though there is no chance of a lynch forming because the possible lynches aren't people I want to vote on.

May I ask why you're suspicious of me?

I am duly warned

Thank you Archivist

I'm most suspicious of Karnage and Megasif at this point. I suppose I will put a vote on Karnage for now. I will make sure to remove it to keep my promise about ties if it becomes relevant.

Edit

I am also not suspicious to me ;)

Edited by Elkanah
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17 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I am duly warned

Thank you Archivist

I'm most suspicious of Karnage and Megasif at this point. I suppose I will put a vote on Karnage for now. I will make sure to remove it to keep my promise about ties if it becomes relevant.

Edit

I am also not suspicious to me ;)

Why are you sus of Mega?

I think I'll go ahead and break the tie with CadCom because when they jumped on to make a post last cycle it was just them commenting on how many cycles we might have left with how many people have died etc and it felt like filler and pricked my interest at the time. I don't remember being overlly trusting of Karnage either so I'm about even on voting for either. I've been suspecting that the elims are fairly quiet this game (not surprising since most people are lol) so I'm good with voting a less active player. Especially to keep the more active ones alive to have more to look at. I just woke up so imma look through stuff now if I can.

Edit: just went back and skimmed last cycle. Karnage's vote on Mist looks sus but it looks TOO suspicious. I feel like it would be too obvious as an elim but maybe not I dunno. As an elim I'm always double and triple thinking what I say and it looked too sheepy to be an elim vote. 

Edited by BrightnessRadiant
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13 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Why are you sus of Mega?

I think I'll go ahead and break the tie with CadCom because when they jumped on to make a post last cycle it was just them commenting on how many cycles we might have left with how many people have died etc and it felt like filler and pricked my interest at the time. I don't remember being overlly trusting of Karnage either so I'm about even on voting for either. I've been suspecting that the elims are fairly quiet this game (not surprising since most people are lol) so I'm good with voting a less active player. Especially to keep the more active ones alive to have more to look at. I just woke up so imma look through stuff now if I can.

As someone who hasn't caught up yet, I find your reasoning valid enough to join the vote on CadCom

ED1T: Nevermind, sorry :(

Edited by Amanuensis
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As usual, everyone was arguing! They were so busy arguing that they never really decided if they wanted to kill anyone, so that never happened.

Meanwhile, someone was murdered in the shadows of the forest.

For the first time, a single Shade rose.


BrightnessRadiant was killed. She was a Loyal Crewmember!

Vote Count:

CadCom (3): Brightness, Sart, The_God_King
Karnage (3): CadCom, DrakeMarshall, Elkanah
Furamirionind (1): The_Archivist
The_Archivist (1): Megasif

GM Notes:

-The cycle will end on May 14th at 13:00 EST.

-Inactivity warnings for: @Elbereth, @A Joe in the Bush, @Karnage, @Zillah.

-If there are any inaccuracies with the vote or inactivity count, please let me know.

Player List:

  1. xinoehp512 - Hades Loyal Crewmember

  2. Karnage - Shroud

  3. StrikerEZ - Reverie Loyal Crewmember

  4. Elkanah - Cain

  5. The_God_King - Mavet

  6. Elandera - Thankful Loyal Crewmember with a Knife

  7. Lord_Silberfarben - Silber

  8. BrightnessRadiant - Calypso Loyal Crewmember

  9. Kynedath - Maledict Loyal Crewmember

  10. Kidpen - Aradia

  11. A Joe in the Bush - Joseph

  12. Elbereth - Crepuscula

  13. The_Archivist - Archer

  14. Mist - Rona Loyal Crewmember

  15. Sart - Sam Trudite

  16. Zillah - TBD

  17. CadCom - Patience

  18. DrakeMarshall - Verity

  19. Amanuensis - Nok the Bard

  20. Arraenae - Resourceful Smythe Mutineer

  21. Megasif - Mega

  22. Furamirionind - TBD

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5 minutes ago, CadCom said:

Hold on... I thought there were 4 or 5 votes for me... I'm going to have to go back and look at that again. 

If I count correctly, here were the vote switches after you posted your vote count (3 for CadCom, 2 for Karnage):

No vote -> The_Archivist

CadCom -> The_Archivist

No vote -> Furamirionind

The_Archivist -> Karnage

No vote -> CadCom

Amanuensis tried to vote for you, but it was after the cycle ended.

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RIP BR :( And not-RIP CadCom/Karnage. I don't know about other votes, but mine didn't count because I was a minute late -_- If it weren't for BR, Karnage would have died, which makes me think between the two, CadCom would be the more likely elim.

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So we all agree that we're all surprised I'm alive. That's good to know. 

36 minutes ago, Megasif said:

@Aman why is cadcom more likely than Karnage

I'm not aman, I think the logic is that since we know BR was village, we know they weren't trying to protect a teammate. If they had been trying to protect a teammate with that vote, then Karnage would have been the elim. 

I'm not saying I agree with the logic, but that's what I think the logic is. 

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  • Elbereth locked and locked this topic

Uh, fyi, y'all... I just accidentally merged cycle 2 into the long game instead of this game. >> Oops. So I'm hoping Wilson can fix it, but until then if you're looking for it that's where it went. :P  EDIT: Okay, it'll be fixed within the hour. EDIT2: All better now. 

Whee, inactivity. Sorry for not being on yesterday. 

16 hours ago, Elkanah said:

 I am highly incentivized to keep Brightness, Drake, Fura, The God King, Sart and Elbereth alive because it feels like you are the movers and shakers keeping the game alive. 

I wish I felt like I deserved to be in that list. :P And the elims clearly agree, at least with BR being a useful villager... I'd rather not lose Sart next, so if anyone has a medikit I'd recommend him as a target. 

I'm growing somewhat less suspicious of TGK, I think. (The tunneling part of me says 'he killed BR because he couldn't put enough suspicion on her!' but I'm pretty sure that's just the tinfoil hat.) Which is annoying, as I don't have much to replace it with. I'm currently not very suspicious of Aman - I think were he evil he'd be a little more active / would be using the activity he has to try to guide the thread more. 

@The_Archivist Yeah, that's basically right. Poke votes are generally votes that you're doing to make someone post, rather than out of genuine suspicion. That said, I'd recommend if you can finding a vote which is genuine suspicion, because we're late enough in the game that we kind of need that. :P Striker said, what, five cycles until LyLo? We're a bit better off from Rae's death (and not having a lynchee this turn), but we're still getting along - just doing the rough math in my head, we've got 3 or 4 more cycles assuming no inactives die. Which in fairness none have yet, but... Even of the people who've posted again several have just been like 'hi I'm here' without adding much content, which makes the game an easy elim win if they end up being the last ones left alive. 

Blahh there's not enough information to figure out what to doooo. I'm going to throw a vote down on Megasif almost entirely at random and try to come back later with something. (I'd also consider voting Fura, but that's more because I can't read him than that I think he's suspicious.)

EDIT: RP!!

Crepuscula had always hated her name. It sounded like an obscure genus of birds, or maybe a human body part. And it didn't shorten well either - Crep? Creppie? Scula? Puscula? There was no combination that made it better. 

She still stuck with it, but she hadn't told anyone but the leader of this group her name. No need to subject herself to even more embarrassment. They just saw her as the weird girl with knotted hair and a bow as tall as she was, and that suited Crepuscula just fine. 

Edited by Elbereth
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17 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Uh, fyi, y'all... I just accidentally merged cycle 2 into the long game instead of this game. >> Oops. So I'm hoping Wilson can fix it, but until then if you're looking for it that's where it went. :P  EDIT: Okay, it'll be fixed within the hour. 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah (Idk why I find this so funny... It's not that funny... but it is...)

17 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I'm currently not very suspicious of Aman - I think were he evil he'd be a little more active / would be using the activity he has to try to guide the thread more. 

I'm not suspicious of Aman either, though I will mention that my first game with Aman he was evil, and inactive until the last 1-2 cycles of the game.
Like, Aman would never intentionally go inactive as an elim, but I don't think he would as a villager either, so... I'm still pretty neutral on him.

18 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Blahh there's not enough information to figure out what to doooo. I'm going to throw a vote down on Megasif almost entirely at random and try to come back later with something. (I'd also consider voting Fura, but that's more because I can't read him than that I think he's suspicious.)

0.0

You know what, I'll... Nah, I'll do my own work instead of sheeping copying your vote. : P

@The_Archivist I'm wondering why you kept voting on me? If I remember right, this is the first cycle you've voted on someone other than me. xD

  1. Karnage - slight elim
    A couple posts hitting some red flags for me, but I can't yet explain why... So I guess I'll call this a gut read until I have time to work out why I'm sus on him.

  2. Elkanah - Neutral? Leaning villlage?

    That's a strange post. Other than that I like them. Inclined to think they are village, though idk.

  3. The_God_King - Village
    Seems to have a village mindset. Voted on CadCom last cycle.

  4. Lord_Silberfarben - Profile page isn't loading on my computer, so I'll resume here when I finish my homework. xD

Since I essentially promised a vote, the only elim read so far is Karnage, so I'll have to put my vote there.

Karnage

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So I've looked a bit into Kidpen, Elkanah and Karnage, as they're the three I'm most suspicious of.

I'm only suspicious of Elkanah, because of what fura pointed out about elkanah, and it piqued my interest, so I decided to look at it a bit closer. I disagree with fura in that I don't like that post or the one where they voted on Mist. I also don't like the following post

It feels too much like trying to validate a villager in order to maybe pocket them. 

Originally I was a bit suspect of Karnage, and I still am, but someone pointed out that their vote seemed almost too suspicious, and I have to say I ...kindof agree...

Kidpen is probably my second most suspicious, but for now I'll vote for Elkanah. But I'd be willing to vote for Kidpen or Karnage in that order. 

 

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Hahaha. Fair enough. (Maybe I can pocket you too?)

No, I was just agreeing that I deserved to be suspected for my inactivity and made a poor excuse for my activity.

I really did expect to see more pushback from lynching Mist. It was almost like the elims wanted us to Lynch her so they wouldn't have to kill her. Unfortunately, I posted so late that we didn't have enough time to change the vote.

I wonder what I can say that is an indicator. What was wrong with my post voting on Mist?

I'm also willing to vote for kidpen

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1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Lord_Silberfarben - Profile page isn't loading on my computer, so I'll resume here when I finish my homework. xD

HAHA

you found my foolish magic.

I am outside this world, so you won't find me.

 

EDIT:

oh you found me

Edited by Lord_Silberfarben
checked my profile.
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5 hours ago, The_Archivist said:

@Megasif, you expressed willingness to lynch me since C2, but you've never explained why. It's fine that you're voting on me, but I do want to know the reason.

Poke vote on Megasif (am I using that term correctly?).

It just feels like you're in a sweetspot where you weren't getting any attention and just existed woth very few posts and nothing standing out wheread some other players had a few larger posts.

Anyways, I think I'm putting my archivist read on hold here for a while because I suddenly get a towny vibe and I sense other darker forces at work:

One of which is El voting at random at this stage, when we've had a few cycles worth of lynches and posts and reads and then they go ahead and make a 'random' vote just doesnt sit right with me, and moreso because its on me when I know I'm a villager.

If archivist elim, its a bad look for fura.

 

I'd want to make a list if I had more time but right now we have many inactives and we're not in a good place.

 

If any of karnage voters are elims, then karnage is probably village here.

I villa read all of cad com voters so ideally I'd like to have that wagon up.

 

@Lord_Silberfarben 

Do you have any reads - top 3 village and top 3 elims perhaps?

 

Honestly expect a little more from Fura here and will look at him if the current gamestate doesn't change. By this I mean, no core village group with similar reads or votes, our wagons are not going above 3 votes. Will probably villa read Fura if Elbereth flips elim here.

 

Down to some actual action:

I might go on a limb and say theres a chance both wagons, Cadcom and Karnage were town -

In which case Drake Marshall

For now.

If Aman's village, one of the people that 'neutral' read him is probably an elim - these include Fura and El. 

 

Edit:

I'm going back on me going back on archivist - I think we still have a hit here, if we can get a wagon on archivist going, something interesting may happen.

 

Edited by Megasif
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Hi guys, I'm finally in a spot where I have both motivation and time, so I'm rereading the game. I wanted to post my thoughts so far in case I get interrupted and can't come back. I've read the whole game, but only really analyzed Turn 1.

So far; I think that Elbereth, Megasif, Sart, Fura, and Archivist are villagers. My gut insists that Zillah is an elim.

I trust Mega and Sart because they both put Arraenae into the lead in votes at different times.

I trust the Archivist because they voted on Silberfarben at a time when Arraenae could have been saved.

I trust Elbereth and Fura for various misunderstandings of the rules and random interactions they had. (These two are much weaker reads)

I have a gut distrust if Zillah because of how they were talking to Xino (who died) about God King. My gut says they decided to off Xino partially out of annoyance, and partially because of all the clever codes they were making.

If no one has responded by the time I've analysed Turn 2, I'll edit that analysis into this post rather than double post.

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