Long Game 65: Dancing through Life

[Burnt Spaghetti]

If it helps with the conundrum me listing myself as 100%,  that's partly just jest, but also if I was an unbiased person looking at my own posts, I'd probably Lynch me anyways. I'd done noooothing useful. Tbh I often find that to be the case when looking at my own stuff. I'd always lynch me if I wasn't me regardless of if I know I'm good or not. One of those things where you always see your own faults so in that aspect its not really a lie because I do find my behaviour to often be super suspicious, which was what the percentage was following up on

 

Edit: forgot to say- can confirm that straw targetted me because he broke my ward in the process of doing so

Edited May 17, 2020 by Burnt Spaghetti

[Karnage]

Hello yall! I am going to follow up with the same vote as last round with Fura Fura. @Furamirionind I do not feel comfortable sharing with you information because you are the most suspicious of me even though it is still a soft suspicion. Anybody who want's to ask me just pm me, if I fell trusting of you I will tell you, just ask.

[Elandera]

24 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Hello yall! I am going to follow up with the same vote as last round with Fura Fura. @Furamirionind I do not feel comfortable sharing with you information because you are the most suspicious of me even though it is still a soft suspicion. Anybody who want's to ask me just pm me, if I fell trusting of you I will tell you, just ask.

This is interesting. I understand from Fura's posts that you do not have a PM with them, so they've not been trying to get info from you directly. It's possible that you got the information from someone else through a PM, but the vagueness of your answer makes me question why you wouldn't just say that without giving a name. Granted, it's also possible you have access to a PM spy ability and don't want to reveal that information. At the moment, though, it looks more as if you are trying to avoid lying in order to pass a linguistics scan.

In regards to Fura fishing for information, that's very common with a lot of people in PMs. Many people feel more comfortable sharing information in PMs they would not share in the thread. I don't think that's an indicator of being elim or village, as both alignments would have reason to pry for information. Villagers will try to trip up potential elims into revealing too much and elims will try to get information about roles and abilities, as well as convincing the villagers of their goodness. 

[Furamirionind]

7 minutes ago, Straw said:

and that the optimal voting strategy is to go after the Nobles

I thought the Noble roleblock was going to be negligible, and therefore Nobles would be OP in the game. I'm not 100% certain, but based on my limited knowledge they don't seem anywhere near as OP anymore..

26 minutes ago, Straw said:

He also said that Nobles buying bodyguards is something he wouldn’t recommend, which I find odd

Yeah, it would be a bit odd if you take it seriously. It was meant as a sort of joke/not-joke, as I wanted nobles to be spending a large portion of money on contracts. Buying bodyguards would interfere with that.

30 minutes ago, Straw said:

Fura also said that he didn’t see Linguistic Analysis as a good way to go after elims, which is opposite to the way I’ve been using it (scanning people with reads to find elims). @Furamirionind, do you still agree with your early takes?

Eh? I mean, I expected these things to be a lot easier to dodge by high amounts of content and by saying stuff that is ambiguous. For instance, if I lied somewhere else this turn, I'd just say that I actually lied here. I normally talk to GMs a lot in games, so if they are reading my PM, it wouldn't be hard to fake a lie, or create some intentionally that I could fall back on. I'm surprised by how effective the ability has been. I did mention earlier as well.

1 hour ago, Straw said:

As I’ve mentioned before, he went after Silber pretty hard, based on him saying two El’the was good luck. He then pivoted to putting Silber as 99% village, which I still find slightly odd

Yes, but I also explained this pretty well, going as far as to break down my own post.

30 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Hello yall! I am going to follow up with the same vote as last round with Fura Fura. @Furamirionind I do not feel comfortable sharing with you information because you are the most suspicious of me even though it is still a soft suspicion. Anybody who want's to ask me just pm me, if I fell trusting of you I will tell you, just ask.

I... This doesn't help. The reason I'm asking is because you have inside information. Info you shouldn't have. I have tried to fish for info from 3-4 people. Not all of these people have publicly spoken against me. Some have me as fairly strong village reads. There is no reason they should have told you I was "fishing", because if they thought that was suspicious, they should have said in thread, or if they didn't, they shouldn't have told you. All in all, the fact you have this inside info is very suspicious, because the best explanation I can think of is one of the people I PMed is an elim with you. That is honestly the most likely thing I can think of, without you giving me more insight as to why and how you have this knowledge.

Until information becomes public as to how you have this information, I encourage anyone willing to vote on Karn. And like I said, I'm not moving my vote until I get an answer.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Straw said:

In T4M2, Elandera switched on Xino and expressed suspicion of Fura for being against the Walin lynch and for Walin reading them as village. She ended up voting twice for Devotary, which I find odd, as I don't believe she had previously expressed any suspicion of her. She decided to vote for Devotary based on the fact that she trusted Hael's judgment, which doesn't look great in retrospect. Elandera's latest vote was on Fura, which makes sense since both elims had read Fura as village. Slight elim read, but I like the fact that she's been making more reads lately.

After retracting from Fura, Kynedath and I were the only other options without spreading the vote out. Clearly, Elandera does/did have suspicion of Fura, but I guess wanted to narrow the vote spread. Her votes failed to accomplish that as Karnage never retracted from Fura. I don't know if Elandera was around for the rest of the cycle/how much she expected Karnage to come back.

34 minutes ago, Karnage said:

I do not feel comfortable sharing with you information because you are the most suspicious of me even though it is still a soft suspicion. Anybody who want's to ask me just pm me, if I fell trusting of you I will tell you, just ask.

Presumably whoever complained to Karnage about Fura fishing for information in PMs (which is I think what's happened?) knows who they are and can clear this up fairly easily. Confirm with someone, not even Fura necessarily but I don't see a great reason otherwise, that they were suspicious of Fura's inquiries and told Karnage about it. Fura can't have PM'd that many people, so the information leak is negligible.

[TheMightyLopen]

So yeah, I'm pretty dead ( irl :P) I wanna post stuff, but also it's a pain on my phone and I don't have my notes with me. Feel like I have a lot of things to say but can't latch on to one specific thing. Not sure how busy I'll be tomorrow, but if anyone @ me I probably can find time to answer them so I can contribute that way I guess. I would also appreciate vote tallies throughout as I'm only skimming.

I think Karnage and fura have votes? I don't like fura last minute voting me(like, c'mon guys can we chill) and if Hael was hoping for mastery maybe furas vote on him would have been meaningless? I was thinking there was something else villageish about Fura though, but now I can't remember. Karnage has felt village to me, but also new player so who knows at this point. I'd take you up on your offer to pm you but on my phone I just can't be bothered to do anything like that.

I believe Hael voted Devotary last round so that's probably not a good option. Doubt he'd risk Devotary getting expelled at this point. IDK then. I'll probably just vote on top target tomorrow.

I think that's the best I can muster. My brain is signing off now. 

[Furamirionind]

Yeah sorry Lopen, I know it wasn't cool, but I didn't have much time, and I was trying to read through 4 cycles in 20 minutes xD

[Elandera]

This is more for a housekeeping/general reminder to vote since we are in the final 24 hours of the turn.

Alive/Sane/Current Students who have yet to post this turn:

• @Kynedath
• @GreenRover
• @Experience

Alive/Sane/Current Students who haven't voted:

• @Elkanah
• @TheMightyLopen
• @Burnt Spaghetti
• @Devotary of Spontaneity

Vote Count:

Fura (4) - Elandera, Elandera, Karnage, Karnage
Karnage (4) - Fura, Fura, Straw
Burnt (4) - Araris, Araris

I'm strongly considering a switch to Karnage, but I want to review their interactions with Hael a little more thoroughly before I make a decision. I don't fully trust Fura, but Karnage's response is curious enough that it has me questioning. I don't think both would be elims.

On to more Hael review. Here is a continuation of his posts from most recent starting where I left off.

Term 3.1

Spoiler

Gives a soft defense of Burnt responding to DeTess's analysis of pointing out the possible WGG on Bard. This was the turn Bard was up for the lynch. The defense was saying she rarely commits to strong opinions. 

He then goes on to discuss Xino's claims on Bard and places a vote on the latter. He does phrase things in a way to still cast some doubt on whether or not Bard is a Skindancer.

The next two posts were RP and regarding Coda and Rath.

Agrees with DeTess that Striker's insanity was likely a sabotage (rather than Bard's almost-insanity). He then responds to Fura about votes on Bard and Lopen, both of which he called gut reads without explanation.

Gives new reads:

Village: Karnage, Experience

Some of his interaction with Fura in this turn (and the end of term 2.2) makes me lean a little more village on them.

Term 2.2

Spoiler

Votes on Araris near the end of the turn. Votes were very spread out at this point, and the only other vote on Araris was Straw, which had been placed not long before.

States he didn't really want to spread out votes more, but may vote for Araris. He also said he didn't like the lynch on Bard or Lopen. 

Another post of hedging placing a vote, stating he's considering a vote on Araris. At that point, Lopen was in the lead with 3 votes, followed by Walin and Straw, both with two.

Responds to DeTess's analysis that Hael hadn't done much toward solving the game yet. This is also where he responded to Karnage's suspicion about not RPing with him (he'd previously asked if it was a possible elim trait to not RP with him). He gives his first read list.

Village: Elandera, Burnt, Elkanah*, Straw, Xino

Neutral: DeTess, Elkanah*

The votes during 2.2 make me slightly more suspicious of Lopen. It also reminded me of his interactions with Karnage. Karnage's suspicion on Hael could have been distancing, but it seemed honest at the time. I'm slightly less suspicious of him.

At this point, I'd be willing to lynch either Lopen or Fura. I want to investigate Karnage a little more, though I wouldn't argue with a roleblock.

My next series will likely be other people's mentions of Hael, as I've crossed over with the work Elkanah did. 

[GreenRover]

Alright, I don't have the energy to do my own in-depth analysis of all the past terms, but based on the last few terms, and analysis of other players, it seems a safe bet to vote on Karnage, partially so as to not place the exact same vote anyway 10 minutes before rollover, and partially because of their reads on Straw and Xino last cycle (I agree with their read on Burnt and from an outsider's perspective on me as well), which though they hadn't read the whole Bard fiasco, I think they should've at least pegged Xino as neutral. I'm not placing two votes on Karnage because I'm not 100% sure of my read, so I'll use my other vote on Straw to cover bases if Karnage's gut read was right last cycle anyway . If I leaped too quickly to conclusions, or there's something crazy I need to be part of when the cycle ends, could someone use @GreenRover tomorrow? If nothing else crazy happens (as the last three cycles have gone), I'll be off the Shard until Monday. Good luck with the expelling tomorrow, everyone. 

[Straw]

5 hours ago, GreenRover said:

Alright, I don't have the energy to do my own in-depth analysis of all the past terms, but based on the last few terms, and analysis of other players, it seems a safe bet to vote on Karnage, partially so as to not place the exact same vote anyway 10 minutes before rollover, and partially because of their reads on Straw and Xino last cycle (I agree with their read on Burnt and from an outsider's perspective on me as well), which though they hadn't read the whole Bard fiasco, I think they should've at least pegged Xino as neutral. I'm not placing two votes on Karnage because I'm not 100% sure of my read, so I'll use my other vote on Straw to cover bases if Karnage's gut read was right last cycle anyway . If I leaped too quickly to conclusions, or there's something crazy I need to be part of when the cycle ends, could someone use @GreenRover tomorrow? If nothing else crazy happens (as the last three cycles have gone), I'll be off the Shard until Monday. Good luck with the expelling tomorrow, everyone. 

@GreenRover You do realize that I am a master, and cannot get any DP?

Karnage talked to me in PMs, and I can use Linguistic Analysis to determine if they were lying about Fura fishing for info.

Oh yeah, with Linguistic Analysis in general, I'm not trying to be a mayor or do the whole "I am not a Skindancer" thing. However, it'd be very helpful if people could try to give reads lists that I can scan. That way I can confirm that they're either a villager or a Skindancer that just confirmed a lot of people. Hopefully, I won't be Sabotaged this turn. On a related note, it's interesting that no one has broken out yet. The odds of someone breaking out are fairly good.

Experience: I don't trust Experience at the moment, mainly since I'd very much like an answer for the last-minute vote on me. They've mentioned feeling good about CadCom, voted on Zillah for lots of RP/NAI stuff, and made a lot of posts about the game itself rather than players. Before that, they have some RP and then a post where they voted for Walin and mentioned that he felt like an elim. Before that, there's just RP and spreading out votes. Elim/neutral read? I feel like their last-minute vote on me was almost too elimy. I'd like them to post something this turn ( @Experience ).

[Elandera]

Just in case I don't wake up in time, Fura Fura Lopen Lopen for reasons in my last post. 

[Karnage]

Hello. This is for Straws scan, and whomever else can do it and wants to do it. That was xino right.

Okay, lets do this. 

So far I am most suspicious of Fura, I have already explained it somewhat. Then it goes to Greene Rover who hasn't quite shaken my gut feeling on them. Then it goes to Lopen. 

People that I do trust more than not are Araris, Elandera, and Straw. Araris and Elandera are more gut reads with Staw less so which the interaction in the pm's. 

Also I will let everyone know that I have had no interaction with Hael outside this thread.

[Furamirionind]

4 hours ago, Straw said:

Karnage talked to me in PMs, and I can use Linguistic Analysis to determine if they were lying about Fura fishing for info.

I've already admitted to fishing for info. We all know I did. And as Devotary said before, I do it regardless of alignment.

I did this in LG49 (neutral), LG50 (elim), AG5 (faction), and LG56 (village) just to name a few.

It will come back as true, and you wont know any more for that scan.

Edit: ok... I'm starting to hate linguistic analysis. Lol. Well, following Karn's Statement, either Straw and Karn are both evil, or they are both village.

And Karn, everything you explained about your suspicion of me is NAI for me, which has been pointed out be the (curently) most village person in the game. If you have something else I'd like to hear it. >_>

Edited May 17, 2020 by Furamirionind

[Straw]

16 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I've already admitted to fishing for info. We all know I did. And as Devotary said before, I do it regardless of alignment.

I did this in LG49 (neutral), LG50 (elim), AG5 (faction), and LG56 (village) just to name a few.

It will come back as true, and you wont know any more for that scan.

He's told me that it didn't come from an elim doc, which I believe is why you were voting for him. I'm using Linguistic Analysis to check that. I phrased it badly.

18 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Edit: ok... I'm starting to hate linguistic analysis. Lol. Well, following Karn's Statement, either Straw and Karn are both evil, or they are both village.

And Karn, everything you explained about your suspicion of me is NAI for me, which has been pointed out be the (curently) most village person in the game. If you have something else I'd like to hear it. >_>

Why are we both village or both elims? I haven't scanned him yet, and there's a chance that he's lying and the Skindancers will just sabotage me to keep me silent.

[Araris Valerian]

I know it’s sort of rude, but I’m going to switch my votes. Burnt Burnt Lopen Lopen. It seems clear that Lopen isn’t going to die on the streets.

 @Straw are you sure that an elim’s read list would set off your lie detection?

Edited May 17, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Elkanah]

@Elbereth@little wilson, Can we have an official vote count?

19 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Nobles:
Araris Valerian
Elandera
GreenRover
Karnage
TheMightyLopen
Devotary of Spontaneity

Commoners:
Experience
Straw
Burnt Spaghetti

Edema Ruh:
Furamirionind
Kynedath
Elkanah

Here are my current reads. I'm borrowing your list so I can see who is still at the school.

Araris - Slight Village - Got us moved on to fighting elims instead of each other. 

Elandera - Neutral - Really started being a part of the game over the last two cycles when my activity started to wane. I need to go back and reread her posts.

GreenRover - Slight Elim - Hasn't been around a lot and has the money to cause problems. 

Karnage - Neutral - I'm not sure which side of the debate between him and Fura I am on. It could be that they are both village, but I don't think they are both elims. I wouldn't mind expelling them just in case.

The Mighty Lopen - Neutral - As I understand it, the evidence against him is he didn't vote to lynch Bard or Hael? I haven't followed the suspicions on Lopen as well as I should have, so I am not suspicious.... yet.

Devotary of Sponteneity -Slight Elim - Sadly he always feels slightly elim to me in every game we play... and I think he actually has been an eliminator in the other games we've played. So maybe he's an elim now?

 

Experience - Slight Elim - Our track record for people who have become masters is not great. Unfortunately, it'll take a namer or an assasin to get rid of you now.

Straw - Slight village - My gut says you're bad, but I can't reconcile that with how helpful you are trying to be to the village. You may have fooled me, but I'm taking that chance for now.

Burnt Spaghetti - Neutral - I'm still wary of you postponing sharing your elevations with the village given the elims already had them. There was also a post from Hael that set me off a little. That said, I don't know why elim!Burnt would admit she had shared her elevations with an elim, so I'll upgrade you from slight elim to neutral.

 

Furamirionind - Neutral - I don't know how to read Fura. It sounds like he has a playstyle very similar to mine which involves a lot of deception with a little chaos sprinkled in. Most of you who have played with him before sound like you see this is normal Fura, which doesn't help get a bead on alignment.

Kynedath - Slightly elim - He's been just active enough not to die on the streets. I'm not sure I believe he will die on the streets, but I also don't want to have him be the lynch target for the next four lynches in a row to be sure he isn't a skindancer. I think a namer or assassin might be the best way to remove him from the school.

Elkanah - Village - Hasn't been as active in the last couple cycles, but I accidentally saw his GM PM and he is definitely Village.  Interesting question... is that a lie?

 

I'm going to wait for an official vote tally to place a vote.

[Straw]

55 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

 @Straw are you sure that an elim’s read list would set off your lie detection?

First of all, I got a lie from Hael, and I think his lie was probably in his reads list. I think it would, but it'd depend on how the read is formatted. If an elim said that a village person was probably an elim, I believe that'd be a lie. I also think stuff like Fura saying that someone was 99% village would be a lie if the person saying it was an eliminator, as eliminators are 100% certain of all alignments. Overall, probably depends a lot on read formatting, but I think there's a high likelihood that I'd get a lie from an elim's read list.

Also, Wilson got back to me and said that a villager putting themselves at 100% suspicion would be borderline, but wouldn't return a lie.

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Elkanah - Village - Hasn't been as active in the last couple cycles, but I accidentally saw his GM PM and he is definitely Village.  Interesting question... is that a lie?

This exemplifies the issue I have with Linguistic Analysis. The GMs are going to have to choose if this is a lie or not, and what they choose may not be accurate. Assuming you are village, you say the word accidentally, which I know is not the case. Therefore you are lying.

On the other hand, you obviously are joking, and therefore are not lying.

So you are both lying and not lying, and makes the entire thing really frustrating. xD

7 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Devotary of Sponteneity -Slight Elim - Sadly he always feels slightly elim to me in every game we play... and I think he actually has been an eliminator in the other games we've played. So maybe he's an elim now?

I will point out Hael tried to get her expelled a couple turns ago.

7 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Experience - Slight Elim - Our track record for people who have become masters is not great. Unfortunately, it'll take a namer or an assasin to get rid of you now.

So, you have Experience as slight elim because he is a master? That's fine, though I am wondering if there is anything else as well.

8 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Furamirionind - Neutral - I don't know how to read Fura. It sounds like he has a playstyle very similar to mine which involves a lot of deception with a little chaos sprinkled in. Most of you who have played with him before sound like you see this is normal Fura, which doesn't help get a bead on alignment.

  ; )

[Elkanah]

6 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I will point out Hael tried to get her expelled a couple turns ago.

Solid point. I had forgotten this.

I will upgrade Devotary to Slight trust. 

[Straw]

5 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

This exemplifies the issue I have with Linguistic Analysis. The GMs are going to have to choose if this is a lie or not, and what they choose may not be accurate. Assuming you are village, you say the word accidentally, which I know is not the case. Therefore you are lying.

On the other hand, you obviously are joking, and therefore are not lying.

So you are both lying and not lying, and makes the entire thing really frustrating. xD

Time to hit the GMs with this:

#1: #2 is true.

#2: #1 is false.

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

Time to hit the GMs with this:

#1: #2 is true.

#2: #1 is false.

Thanks Straw. xDDDDDDD

Edit: Someone please scan Straw this turn? : P

Edit again:

1 hour ago, Straw said:

He's told me that it didn't come from an elim doc, which I believe is why you were voting for him. I'm using Linguistic Analysis to check that. I phrased it badly.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

That's fair, but I don't know the language he used. He has been dodging the question for 2-3 turns, or 4-6 days now, and has had plenty of time to think up a response with loopholes. Is it possible he learned from someone in an elim doc who learned from someone else via PM? There are just too many ways without my knowing the wording this could be unreliable.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Furamirionind

[little wilson]

27 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

@Elbereth@little wilson, Can we have an official vote count?

Karnage (3): Fura, Fura, Rover
Lopen (4): Elandera, Elandera, Araris, Araris
Fura (2): Karnage, Karnage
Straw (1): Rover

[Furamirionind]

Oh, Straw, you've only cast a single vote?

[little wilson]

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Oh, Straw, you've only cast a single vote?

Oops. And retracted that one vote. Fixed.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Edit: ok... I'm starting to hate linguistic analysis. Lol. Well, following Karn's Statement, either Straw and Karn are both evil, or they are both village.

We probably do need to see how this cycle plays out before making a judgment on this. Karnage certainly doesn't seem worried by Straw's lie detection abilities, but there are reasons for that beyond shared alignment. We could have easily have village!Karn with elim!Straw, or elim!Karn prepared to hit village!Straw with a roleblock/redirect/sabotage/kill. We won't know until the next turn.

Presumably, an elim mentioning they had uncertainty about a player's alignment, or expressing incorrect certainty, would register as a lie to linguistic analysis. I got confirmation that obvious misinformation would register as a lie, while self-deprecation could show up as being truthful.

Straw retracted his vote on Karnage, and Rover's vote on Straw doesn't do anything since Masters can't receive DP.