Long Game 65: Dancing through Life

[Elkanah]

Sorry Xino I will take responsibility for your insanity. I told him I knew a physicker that could help him. He was trying to construct a gram. I then forgot to change my action from cheat death to Counselling. As it turned out I still saved him from the doubletap, but I could not save him from both. I am not sure at this point if I should or should not just spill everything in the thread. It may not be hard to figure out what fields I have been elevated in anyway. 

As for the namer: Well Done! I would be happy to try to help keep you sane if you decide you can trust me. If you can not trust me, then just do not claim to me. I have a pretty bad track record so far. Sorry Xino.

 

Hael coming up elim is interesting. I will post this for now and start working on my own list of his interactions to supplement Elandera's work. After that, I will provide read lists for everyone still attending University. I have got to make the most of having the day off.

[little wilson]

8 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Can we PM expelled players if we are attending Imre for the term?

Yes. As already mentioned, you can PM expelled players at any time. They can only respond if you tell them (truthfully) that you are in Imre.

[Elkanah]

Hael's Posts

1.1 p2

Spoiler

1.1.1 This is Ironic and NAI

1.1.2 NAI

1.2 p7

Spoiler

1.2.1 Agrees with me that a WGG seems like a poor reason to send someone to the crockery. Praises spreading out the votes.

1.2.2 Largely NAI

1.2.3 Vote Count

1.2.4 RP

1.2.5 RP

1.2.6 RP

1.2.7 RP

As good as RP is, I might just link analysis posts going foreward.

1.2.12 Suggests not doing what I did in my last post.

2.1 p10

Spoiler

2.1.1 This post becomes very interesting in the new light of Hael being a skindancer. It also makes me suspect Burnt Spaghetti, but only a little bit.

2.2 p14

Spoiler

2.2.1 Resonates with Straw (pocketing?). Gives some reads. I will just copy the relevant ones here.

Quote

2. Elandera - (Noble) - 1.1 pointed out the importance of not just having votes on Nobles, with the potential for multiple expelled nobles in that situation. Given the last two games (well definitely LG18, but pretty sure it was the case LG33), the skindancers focused first on expelling all students before worring about finishing off either the fields or killing everyone, I'd agree with Elendara's sentiments here. Though I suppose that it just means it's no different to the lynch normally - eliminators are benefited from the village lynching villagers. I'm leaning village on Elendara. I've also enjoyed their RP.

3. Burnt Spaghetti - (Commoner) - Not a fan of grammar and punctuation. A lot of RP, or general rules advice based on previous experience. Did note the value of the Bribe the Messenger ability. Did at least contribute some reads at the start of the cycle. She's always hard to read as anything beyond an agent of chaos who's just here to have fun, but I think she's more likely to be village than not at this stage (though that itself would be grounds for her being a Skindancer if we were playing the Resistance now...) 

5. Elkanah - (Edema Ruh) - Keeping quite active (which is certainly going to be helped from their need for tuition reductions as a Ruh). A lot of rule clarifications, some rule theory crafting that makes me lean a little village, shared a few reads. Still mostly a neutral read - need more data.

6. Straw - (Commoner) - RP, shared stats about previous games and previous cycles, which as Striker noted is a good way of getting overlooked. I probably agree more with them about using votes than I do with DeTess or Araris. Slight village read overall.

Gave all four of us leaning village, so maybe NAI

2.2.2 Considers poking both Araris and Furamirionind

This is as far as I can get for now. Looking through  the rest of that turn here are my thoughts:

2.1

He makes a post that makes me suspect Burnt

2.2

Straw votes for him for activity

Lopen has a neutral read on Hael

Hael votes for Araris

 

From this I trust Straw and Araris a little more and Burnt a little less.

[Furamirionind]

11 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

….. Hael why you do this.  Welp. So the elims know my first two elevations then. That's fun. So great. Very excited about that.  On the plus I at least can tell you Hael was a physicker, and would've become a master this turn.  I don’t know exactly how many elevations in that he had, but it think he had at least two so may have gone full? Not sure though. Apparently wasn't self protecting this turn so that was lucky timing on that kill! I. Need to go re-evaluate many things. Our PM's were cryptic at best so I'm not sure how much other information that's in there to relook at but I'll go do another read through or three o_O

If... The elims know your first two elevations, maybe you could share with the thread as well? Would definitely make my spreadsheeting a bit easier... =)

How do you know he was a physicker? did he prove it? If the elims lost their physicker, that's a pretty big deal...

6 hours ago, Straw said:

I am the Master Linguist. The first two times I was elevated in Linguistics, I gained the anonymous message ability and the passive PM spying ability. I saw no reason to use the anonymous message ability, so I never used it. Last turn, I was elevated again and gained the lie detection ability.

Jeez, I wanted to go into linguistics cause I thought It'd be fun. I didn't actually think it would turn out being this useful for the village. xD
Anyways, this makes me inclined to think that Burnt and Araris are both village as well. Araris was already good in my mind, but I was sus on Burnt. So this help. (Still going to look over her stuff myself though)

6 hours ago, Straw said:

To clarify on the last minute votes: at 6:59, literally one minute before the day ended, Experience suddenly voted on me. They gave no explanation for why they had voted on me, other than the fact that they had "a bad gut feeling" but that they didn't have time to look at any posts to confirm. I was extremely confused and annoyed, so I tried to do a last minute vote switch onto them. I looked back through their posts, and the last time before then that they had mentioned me in a post was in Term 2 Month 2, where they had been confused by StrikerEZ's post and then immediately retracted in the same post. The only other mention of me was quoting me asking them to switch from Araris to spread out the votes further, and them complying. So, in summary: Experience voted on me at the last minute so I didn't even get the chance to defend myself, gave no reasons other than a "bad gut", hadn't even mentioned me since Term 2 Month 2, and had never mentioned being suspicious of me for something I'd actually said.

This makes sense. I like that.

6 hours ago, Straw said:

Also, I noticed a little something hidden in white text at the end of your post. What's up with that?

Quote

Eh? I'm funny like that. : P

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Oh, with Hael dying, I forgot to mention I'm 99% sure CadCom is innocent now... Cool, glad that info is going to help a lot... : /

There wasn't an incredibly strong link between Hael and CadCom that I can remember. CadCom expressed mild, nondescript suspicion on him, then placed a single vote 3.1(I think) which was quickly removed. What else was there to make a Hael-CadCom team implausible?

Elkanah suggests that Xino went insane as a result of random 10% chance from constructing a gram, which would explain why Xino had a gram to prevent the first sabotage.

I do think it's interesting that Straw says Burnt wasn't lying when she put herself at a 100% suspicion. Obviously not intended to be taken as truthful, but it seems like it should have counted as a lie for a villager? I don't know if a Skindancer could have claimed about Hael, 

Quote

They seem a’ight? Been doing lists breaking down suspicions on people, done a fair bit of rp,  presumably cause the plight of the edema, my interactions with them have been good. Some pming too. Hard to actually read because of sibling bias but has seemed fine to me. 30%

The main reason for Burnt being a villager for telling the truth is the statement

Quote

I dont have a clue and i'm tired

 since a Skindancer definitely would have a clue. I guess saying that suspicions were based on immediate gut feelings could explain inaccurate suspicion ratings, the GMs only count lies as intentional attempts to deceive not just knowingly false information, or Straw is just lying. Araris's main 4.2 claim is that he was reading Hael slightly more village, which wouldn't make sense for a Skindancer if true.

[Furamirionind]

Sorry for the double post. This site is glitching out super bad for me, so this is all it's letting me do. : /

Anyways, I just remembered @Karnage's comment about me fishing in PMs, and I'm not letting that go. How would Karnage know this? Just to re-iterate what I asked before, I want to know who told you I'm fishing for info in PMs.

I'm going to Araris Stab Vote™ until I get an answer I like. Karnage has also been online since rollover happened, so I am suspicious as to why he hasn't responded to me on this yet. I'll go back and read though Karnage first... Once the site stops glitching out for me.

Karnage, Karnage

[Straw]

57 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I do think it's interesting that Straw says Burnt wasn't lying when she put herself at a 100% suspicion. Obviously not intended to be taken as truthful, but it seems like it should have counted as a lie for a villager?

I'll ask the GMs about that.

Okay, I'm just going to cover the not-insane, alive, and non-expelled players, since they're the ones most relevant to the game right now:

Araris Valerian: I trust him since I scanned him and he didn't lie last turn. He had said, "Haelbarde I’m reading you (slightly) more as village now." which I think would have been read as a lie if he was a Skindancer. He also said that he didn't agree with any of Karnages suspicions other than Rover. This means that if Araris is elim, Rover must be an elim as well, and Burnt, Fura, and I are all confirmed village. Village read.

Burnt Spaghetti: I trust her as well since I scanned her and she wasn't lying last turn. She made a list of reads, and I think that would have tripped Linguistic Analysis if she was a Skindancer. Devotary's point about her 100% suspicion post is interesting, and I'm still waiting for the GMs to get back to me about that. Village read.

Devotary of Spontaneity: Looking back, Devotary hasn't said that much. They voted on Bard early but only because he was "a better target than Lopen". They also seemed suspicious of CadCom and Elandera. Neutral read.

More reads to come. I'm splitting this up so I get a greater tuition reduction.

[Furamirionind]

36 minutes ago, Straw said:

Devotary of Spontaneity: Looking back, Devotary hasn't said that much. They voted on Bard early but only because he was "a better target than Lopen". They also seemed suspicious of CadCom and Elandera. Neutral read.

I have other reasons to think Devotary is village, though technically I don't know what I know is 100% true. xD

36 minutes ago, Straw said:

More reads to come. I'm splitting this up so I get a greater tuition reduction

I wasn't going to say anything, but this post is just to allow you to make another post without double posting (just in case you're working on that post now. Lol

[Araris Valerian]

I feel like I'm becoming more and more paranoid as this game goes on. I feel like my only solid village reads are Kynedath and Devotary, based on Hael's votes. I keep feeling like something is off about Fura, despite his high activity level and helpful posts. We don't have anything on Straw (and whenever I suspect him I'm wrong), but I'm mildly suspicious of anyone who becomes a master. I don't think anything he's said this cycle clears him. We need to catch an unconfirmed skindancer for that to really happen.

I'd guess that Elandera/Straw is not a team. Also, since Fura is roleblocked right now, I'm not sure its worth expelling him. 

I'll echo the call for Burnt to reveal her elevations, if the elims already know them. Actually, I think a villager would have revealed right away. I'm going to put my votes here for now. I might move to Lopen if he shows up. Burnt Burnt.

I'm suspicious of Lopen and GreenRover for not participating, but I kinda hope they will get killed on the streets.

Reads:
Straw - not sure, leaning elim
Experience - not sure, leaning elim
Lopen - elim
GreenRover - elim
Burnt - leaning elim
Elandera - leaning village
Fura - not sure, leaning elim
Devotary - village
Elkanah - leaning village
Kynedath - village
Karnage - leaning elim

Italics are low active/full inactive. Bold are masters, cannot be voted on. Underlined is roleblocked, probably not worth a vote right now. So basically Burnt is the only option I see right now.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Straw]

Elandera: Elandera didn't really have any reads until T3M1, where she read Lopen as neutral and Xino as an elim. She voted for both Xino and Bard that month (it was the month where Xino accused Bard of lying). In T3M2, Elandera continued to express suspicion of Xino, and asked someone to kill bard so we could get a flip. She also mentioned being suspicious of me, Fura, Lopen, Experience, Xino, and Burnt in varying degrees. Interestingly, all of these were just based off of gut and one or two quotes. In T4M1, Elandera continued to express suspicion of Xino, and mentioned not liking the vote on Zillah. In T4M2, Elandera switched on Xino and expressed suspicion of Fura for being against the Walin lynch and for Walin reading them as village. She ended up voting twice for Devotary, which I find odd, as I don't believe she had previously expressed any suspicion of her. She decided to vote for Devotary based on the fact that she trusted Hael's judgment, which doesn't look great in retrospect. Elandera's latest vote was on Fura, which makes sense since both elims had read Fura as village. Slight elim read, but I like the fact that she's been making more reads lately.

[Straw]

Elkanah: Elkanah had basically no reads up until T3M1. Before then they had just posted RP (understandable since they're Ruh) and thoughts on game mechanics. They suggested that Bard's lie was just RP, but ended up voting on him because he was El'the and had voted for Elkanah. After that, they didn't say much. On T4M1, they voted on Zillah for being an inactive El'the. They did some analysis of fields that people are in, which I suppose could be seen as an elim thing to do. It's something I'd do though, so I don't find it suspicious. They said they had a bad gut read on me but recently said their view of me had improved. Interestingly, they said they trusted Burnt less @Elkanah, if you trust me more, and my lie scan implies that Burnt is a village, wouldn't that mean you'd also read her as more village? Neutral for now, and I'd like to see the reads list they promised.

Here are the notes I took last turn on Araris, Burnt, Hael, and things they could have lied about: (I have more for other players but most peoples' are really brief)

Araris Valerian:
-Reads Bard as village, Rath as elim, Devotary as elim, Fura as village, Hael as more village than before
-Disagrees with Hael’s elim read on Straw
-Thinks elim is trying to become Master in Naming
-Doesn’t share Karnage’s suspicions

Burnt Spaghetti:
-Was not expecting T4M2 results
-Reads of people

Haelbarde:
-Bad that Experience didn’t point out Zillah death chance
-Reads of people

[TheMightyLopen]

Just can't post right now sorry peeps. Still helping my parents move, otherwise I'd be all up in this as this is when things get fun. Just have been very busy last few days.

I don't know if I should vote, but if consensus agrees somewhere I could pile on someone to help.

I may have some time to look at posts tonight, but I also might collapse in bed lol. 

[Elkanah]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

@Elkanah, if you trust me more, and my lie scan implies that Burnt is a village, wouldn't that mean you'd also read her as more village? Neutral for now, and I'd like to see the reads list they promised.

Solid question. I was basing my thoughts entirely off of Hael's early posts. In one of them it sounded like he was overemphasizing that she was evil in a previous game. With him flipping elim, it seemed like his overemphasis might have been him making sure we didn't misunderstand his post as saying she is this game. Of course that might have been his intention and she isn't a skindancer this game.

It is interesting that Burnt didn't lie last turn and helps my trust of her a little bit.

[Furamirionind]

Hmm, it's worth noting the two elims that are dead were Edema and Commoner. While I know all of these were attempted to be balanced (so you could theoretically have an elim team with only Edema Ruh), I don't think that would be reasonable. It would be funny when opening the doc, but it would really suck, and basically force you into playing the game in a specific way. Due to this, I don't think the elims are going to be too concentrated in either Nobles or Edema.
This being said, I'm pretty sure it was obvious someone was going to point this out at some point, so there doesn't have to be a noble Elim, for example. They may have thrown a curveball... But I don't think we should completely overlook this either.
 

Spoiler

 

Nobles:
Araris Valerian
Elandera
GreenRover
Karnage
TheMightyLopen
Devotary of Spontaneity

Commoners:
Experience
Straw
Burnt Spaghetti

Edema Ruh:
Furamirionind
Kynedath
Elkanah

 

 

Now looking at those that have been attacked by the elims:

Spoiler

 

Nobles:
HH
Lumgol
Coda

Commoners:
Sart
DeTess
Xino

Edema Ruh:
Striker

 

Does this tell us anything? Probably not. Haven't worked that out yet. Definitely shows either that the elims aren't feeling threatened by the Edema, or they have a larger number there so are leaving it alone.
I'd guess though that they don't feel threatened. Most/all of the Edema, from what I can tell, dropped out of the university fairly early on to stockpile money. Due to this, they would be behind the curve, and would take a while to catch up.

[Araris Valerian]

@Furamirionind I'd been thinking the same thing, but:

1) Wilson is a troll (this is definitely a good quality for a GM)

2) The nobles I'm suspicious of are inactive

Edited May 17, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Furamirionind]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Furamirionind I'd been thinking the same thing, but:

1) Wilson is a troll (this is definitely a good quality for a GM)

2) The nobles I'm suspicious of are inactive

Yeah, thats why I didn't dive too deep into it. Just wanted it mentioned. Also, I know Wilson is a troll, but a game where all the elims are Edema would just literally not be fun for the elims. So I'm kind of assuming there are limits to her trolli-ness. While we already have proof that not all elims were Edema, I'm just using that as an example. A well balanced Elim team should be able to pick how they play this game, yet the ranks players are given strictly limit what those players can effectively do.

I actually didn't realize how detrimental the Noble roleblock was, until talking to a Noble this cycle, and them telling me how it makes the field they went into a lot more risky...

edit: Hi Karnage, don't think I don't see you viewing the thread! : P

Edit again: Aw, now he seems to have gone offline again. : /

Edited May 17, 2020 by Furamirionind

[Araris Valerian]

@Straw can you point me to where I said I thought an elim would try and become master namer? I don’t recall saying that, and given the built in insanity chance of being a namer, (I think it’s 20% base for the master), I don’t think an elim would go for that unless they could guarantee a physicker to help them out.

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Straw can you point me to where I said I thought an elim would try and become master namer? I don’t recall saying that, and given the built in insanity chance of being a namer, (I think it’s 20% base for the master), I don’t think an elim would go for that unless they could guarantee a physicker to help them out.

*Cough*Haelbarde*cough* ; )

[Straw]

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Straw can you point me to where I said I thought an elim would try and become master namer? I don’t recall saying that, and given the built in insanity chance of being a namer, (I think it’s 20% base for the master), I don’t think an elim would go for that unless they could guarantee a physicker to help them out.

Huh, that must have been someone else.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

I suppose I don't have proof that Hael was a physicker, but I don't have reason to not believe him about that. I have a level in artificery, and after saying that he'd shown interest in maybe helping me make some items for him. Since having someone supplying free grams (even if only single use) to the Edema Elim seems like a pretty great opportunity, so I'm inclined to believe that. 

The other elevation he was aware of was that I have a level in naming as well, but that hasn't been my priority, so I'm still a single name pleb if I want to even make a ward without possibly going insane I can't have a second name giving me a +1 so yee. The multiclass multidropout Bryn y'all!

[Straw]

31 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Straw can you point me to where I said I thought an elim would try and become master namer? I don’t recall saying that, and given the built in insanity chance of being a namer, (I think it’s 20% base for the master), I don’t think an elim would go for that unless they could guarantee a physicker to help them out.

Never mind, I found it:

Quote

Kynedath is on my radar, perhaps even more so because Walin refused to comment. If Walin was telling the truth about EP in Naming, then I'd guess an elim is trying to become a Master in Naming.

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Straw

[Araris Valerian]

Oh yeah, but we don't have any reason to believe Walin in that post, since he was an elim.

[Straw]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Oh yeah, but we don't have any reason to believe Walin in that post, since he was an elim.

I'm looking for possible lies where I can either confirm someone as a student or reveal information about the elim team if they flip elim. If a student had said, that, it would have been no lie. If you were an elim who said that, it could have been a lie or not a lie, but it reveals information about the elims if you flip.

EDIT: also, I'm just looking for any possible lies so I can confirm stuff.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Straw

[Araris Valerian]

Ah. I saw your list of things people could have lied about, but didn't make the connection to your abilities. Things make a bit more sense now.

[Straw]

Furamirionind: Fura started out by saying that they would be mainly voting based on RP, and that the optimal voting strategy is to go after the Nobles. He also said that Nobles buying bodyguards is something he wouldn’t recommend, which I find odd. Fura also said that he didn’t see Linguistic Analysis as a good way to go after elims, which is opposite to the way I’ve been using it (scanning people with reads to find elims). @Furamirionind, do you still agree with your early takes? Fura mentioned Bard as a possible elim fairly early on (T2M1), which could either be a legitimate read or could just be early distancing. He went after me for trying to spread out votes, which is fairly NAI in my opinion. He ended up voting for Bard when the lynch was him vs Lopen, which is another good sign. As I’ve mentioned before, he went after Silber pretty hard, based on him saying two El’the was good luck. He then pivoted to putting Silber as 99% village, which I still find slightly odd. He then made a reads post that I mostly agree with. Also, I just noticed an edit that said this: “I did a reread of many of my previous games last night, and I'd like to point out to Straw that you apparently just have an issue with my play-style in general.”. I’d be curious to see some examples if you remember them. He defended me with STINK, which could be his genuine opinion, or just an attempt to get me to stop suspecting them. I’m curious what was going on with him and Karnage saying he was fishing for info. He said that I had been “under a lot of scrutiny early game”, which I still don’t think is accurate. Fura voted on Hael and Lopen last turn, which looks good because Hael was a Skindancer, but in their vote for him Fura said that Hael was “firmly a neutral read for me all game”, so I’ll put it down as NAI leaning village. Recently, they stab voted Karnage for not following up on the fishing for info thing. I’m supportive of that, and I’d like an answer from Karnage as well. Whew, this ended up being almost 400 words total, but I won't split it. Overall, slight elim read on Fura.

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Ah. I saw your list of things people could have lied about, but didn't make the connection to your abilities. Things make a bit more sense now.

Yeah, I made a list of everything people could have lied about so I could choose who to scan. The people I listed are the people I scanned.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Straw