914 posts in this topic

Maern sat in the common room, mulling over the events of the day as he ate his stew. Someone was playing the piano- the landlord had paid someone to get it back in tune, and now they usually had someone playing every day for dinner. Maern found it relaxing- especially good considering how stressful this day had been.

Not only do I have to worry about skindancers coming to steal my sanity, I also have to worry about more mundane threats from Ferwish. He sighed. As if he hadn’t had enough to deal with already, what with his recent elevation to El’the. The Masters were working him harder than ever, now. And his cash… well, it wasn’t doing poorly, but it wasn’t exactly doing great, either. He’d been falling behind in his ability to keep up with it, what with everything else he was dealing with.

Well, he’d manage somehow. It ran in his family, management. He’d been in tougher situations before, and he’d survived those with no problem. He could handle this.

I need to break things down, he told himself. Conceptually fit stuff into manageable chunks. Breaking stuff up into chunks was important- doing everything at once was only going to overwhelm him with its impossibility.

----

4 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I can't check the rules as of this moment, however I'm pretty sure I specifically remember that being a banned question. All questions have to be passed by the GMs first, and I think the rules state you can't ask "are you a skindancer?".

Quote

Drug a player and gather information from them. When using the plum bob, player will PM the GM, informing them of the use, and the questions they want to ask, just to make sure the questions are valid. Players can ask a maximum of 5 basic questions (questions like “Who are the other Skindancers” and “What abilities do you have/What fields are you studying” do not count as a single question). Once the questions have been cleared, the GM will set up a PM between the 2 players during the next turn. Target must answer all questions truthfully. Because the plum bob is dangerous, there is a chance the target will fly into a rage. If this happens, the student who used the plum bob will instantly be brought on the horns for Conduct Unbecoming, receiving lashings as punishment, and no more questions will be asked.

I think you may have misremembered “Who are the other Skindancers?” as being "Are you a Skindancer?" Since the latter is a yes/no question, it should be perfectly valid by these rules.

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Explanations

Straw- I really like the effort that they have put into the game, just saying that first. Honestly they have started to turn into a slight gut feeling for being an elim. Like I said that list was in not particular order. You just happened to be more suspicious than I felt everyone else was.

Green Rover- Mostly flying under the radar (in terms of my memory), I know they have posted some, but not enough to be memorable. The stuff that they have said, hasn't kept with me. These reasons along with gut feeling.

Xino- With being a confirmed Linguist. Could be leading us through a loop with supposed information that I don't have much reason to trust. I wasn't following the whole Bard thing well either so I don't know if that is completely my fault for not being too trusting. I mean, they could have said that Bard was lying twice just to get them on the lynch for unknown reasons. Unless anybody has lie detected them too, I am just not sure if the post in the thread confirming stuff like this is the right way to go around it. It seem more risky but that also increases it believably. If anybody has anything to add to change my mind I would be happy to listen, maybe I am just thinking about this all wrong.

Burnt Spagetti- Honestly just a gut feeling, I put them up there because I said I would do five and unconsciously I have her pegged down for slight, slight elim.

I also said that for all of them is was a gut feeling from unconscious analysis in the original post, but here is more of what am thinking.

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@Araris Valerian- Your welcome. I'd just like to say, how hard it can be sometimes to be motivated to make an in depth though out post in this thing. Sometime I feel the motivation, sometimes not so much. These past few cycles have felt not so much, hopefully I move out. Does anybody relate or is it just me?

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I can relate. I get my motivation for analysis from a combination of 2 things:
1) Making a good vote is one of the best things I can do to help my team win
2) The best way to vote well is by doing analysis
Bonus) Other people will suspect you less if you are honestly contributing to discussion

So I would say don't try and make long posts just because other people are doing that. Do what you need to in order to feel like you are helping your team win. Also, this game is weird, because the lynch has much lower stakes than a normal game. The elims don't necessarily need to defend each other, and we don't get alignment information from an expulsion. 

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Posted (edited)

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

All the other players that Walin gave a village read on we have high confidence are actually village. What makes Fura different?

It's partly because the others are considered village that I suspect Fura. While it's not always the case, many elims will slide in one teammate during trust reads, especially if they aren't under threat of being killed. Part of it is because Fura also refuted the vote on Walin and Lopen, which I also suspect of being elim.

9 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Elandera, I honestly didn't remember much of what Walin had posted, so him becoming Master was the first time he really became any kind of focus of mine, which is why I didn't have any sort of read on him.

I understand that, which is why I'm not basing a whole lot of my suspicion on how people regarded Walin. Pretty much everyone could be comfortable putting him in the "unknown" or "no read" category.

If my count is correct, we currently have:

Fura (4) - Elandera, Elandera, Karnage, Karnage
Kynedath (4) - Lopen, Lopen, Araris, Araris

I have a sneaking suspicion that the majority of lynch discussion is going to happen in the last 8 hours again. I'll try to make it on by the end.

---

Athdara was buried deep in the archives once again. Her hair was an unmanageable mess, her eyes bloodshot and ringed with dark circles. It looked like she hadn't slept or even left the building in a span. There was too much to do and so little time. If schoolwork wasn't enough, she had to worry about the fae.

At least some of her work had finally paid off. It had taken almost twice as long as anyone outside of the medica, but she'd finally been elevated. Her parents had started to threaten cutting her off if she didn't make some quantifiable progress. That would have made her education much more difficult. But that worry was behind her, for now.

Instead, she had to worry about passing her classes. She couldn't afford to wait another four terms before making Re'lar.

So, she buried herself in the archives to study. If she couldn't defeat the skindancers, she'd find other ways to beat them through scholarship.

Edited by Elandera
Corrected vote count. See below.
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1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Elandera I placed 2 votes on Kynedath as well.

Ah, missed that. I'll edit it in.

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Posted (edited)

He took a deep breath, forcing his thoughts into measured paths. One thing at time. He could deal with one thing at a time.

First, Ferwish. What was he going to do about Ferwish? Well, the man wouldn’t dare get him the same way he had tried today, so he could cross that of his list of things to worry about, at least. Of course that didn’t preclude him from doing something worse to Maern- like sending an assassin  to kill him while he slept, for instance.

But assassins were expensive- was Maern’s death really worth that much to Ferwish? Especially given that if he were to die in suspicious circumstances, suspicions could fall directly on his noble shoulders. It was hard to make getting murdered in bed look like anything other than an murder. Unless Ferwish had more arrogance than brains, assasination would probably not be his preferred manner of revenge.

What about other ways of ensuring his death, ways that would look more accidental? Maern tried to think of an example before realizing that he didn’t actually often do very dangerous things. Probably the most dangerous thing he’d done since arriving at the University was the time when he’d gotten delayed at school and had to walk back in the dark. Even that had been pretty uneventful. The more Maern thought about it, perhaps Ferwish would be less of a concern than the skindancers after all.

----

12 hours ago, Karnage said:

@Araris Valerian- Your welcome. I'd just like to say, how hard it can be sometimes to be motivated to make an in depth though out post in this thing. Sometime I feel the motivation, sometimes not so much. These past few cycles have felt not so much, hopefully I move out. Does anybody relate or is it just me?

I feel it too, yeah :P. I've been better with stuff this game, at least- having an incentive to post written in the game makes it much easier to stay motivated.

Of course, I still need to post stuff of substance this cycle... :P Well, the number of sane, living individuals still attending the University has almost reached half, which was my benchmark for when to do a player list analysis post. So probably I'll do something like that this turn at some point, if I can bring myself to do it.

Edited by xinoehp512
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10 hours ago, Karnage said:

@Araris Valerian- Your welcome. I'd just like to say, how hard it can be sometimes to be motivated to make an in depth though out post in this thing. Sometime I feel the motivation, sometimes not so much. These past few cycles have felt not so much, hopefully I move out. Does anybody relate or is it just me?

Literally the last three days for me. I'm hoping the weekend is better. I really appreciate all the in depth analysis everyone has done and I will commit to making a post giving reads next turn. For now, I'm pretty out of school for next term because I haven't role played and I don't have time today to fix that. 

My gut is telling me Straw is bad, but I won't vote on that because I am giving no evidence and it would just dilute the votes. I wouldn't be too surprised if Kynedath died on the streets, so I'm not sure it is worth lynching him.

I might be able to jump on a train later, but if not I'll be full back next month. 

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Bother. I wrote the post, then our net died, and I lost half my post... So here's take 2...

I'm happy for Kynedath to be expelled - I agree that Walin's reads do make them somewhat supicious. However, I'm sorta expecting Kynedath to share the fate of Zillah and die to the Sloan on the streets, given they've not posted in this game in 6 or so days. As such, I feel my complaints are better served elsewhere.

Fura I'm still reading as village. I get where Elendera's coming from, but it's not quite enough to shake my village read on Fura yet.

So as far as my complaints, given I've not really read anything that's changed my mind just yet, I'm going to stick with the list I gave earlier in cycle, and put my votes down on Devotary (Devotary). I'll be asleep shortly most likey, but I should hopefully be online again before rollover to react to the last 6 hour vote madness that's been the pattern of the last two lynches, if necessary. 


He sat, idly carving sculpting a bar of soap with a knife as he considered the fabric laid out on the floor in front of him. It'd taken some him time, saving every drab, but he'd be able to purchase a nice warm materiel that would be perfect for making a new garment to keep out the chill. He didn't however have the money to pay a tailor to make something for him, so if he were to get something made out of the fabric, he'd need to do it himself. Coming to that realisation, he figured that maybe trying to make one of those fancy embroidered coats he saw some of well to do merchants wearing would likely be beyond his abilities. Making music was his skill, though he'd found preciously little time to practice it, not needlework. He'd have to try for something simpler then.

 He set down the carved rose on the table beside him, and noted his 'cloak', thrown over a nearby chair. Two large portions had torn, and there were many holes starting to grow. Maybe a new cloak is in order. He supposed a cloak couldn't be that hard, right? Just cut as big a circle as you could get, and you'd be done. 

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Perhaps Ferwish would be less of a concern than the skindancers after all. They didn’t have to worry about being implicated if he was attacked- and insanity was almost as bad (if not worse) than death. Luckily, he’d learned several things in his search through the Stacks and the Tomes, first and foremost being that the skindancer’s weakness was holly- unlike other Fae, iron would affect them far less, if at all. Maern had secretly removed a few branches off one of the trees on the University grounds and sharpened them into stakes. He carried them on his person everywhere he went- still, they would only be of limited efficacy against an attack that took him completely by surprise. Maern wasn’t sure how long they needed with a person in order to drive them insane, or what they needed to do in order to do it- although he suspected that it was fairly easy to do, and didn’t take very long, given that they’d been able to do it without alerting anyone multiple times already.

But maybe he’d been thinking about this the wrong way. If he couldn’t avoid the skindancer’s actual attack… could he shrug it off? Was there any way for him to resist the attempted mental sabotage, either indefinitely or until he could fight off the perpetrator?

----

I've been doing a lot of PM's recently, so I need to keep my post count high... but I've also been busy with other things and haven't had time to do analysis. :(

If there are any physickers out there who would be willing to shoot me a PM, I would be grateful- I'm feeling a little bit paranoid currently, what with the attempt on my sanity and all. :ph34r:

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Challenge- spot which bits i typed up initially before i got tired and decided sanity wasn’t needed anymore

 

Non-expelled living and sane players
Player name - immediate gut feeling- thoughts after rereading - percentage (0% = no suspicion/full trust, 50% no clue/neutral 100% is all the suspicion)

  1. Haelbarde - They seem a’ight? Been doing lists breaking down suspicions on people, done a fair bit of rp,  presumably cause the plight of the edema, my interactions with them have been good. Some pming too. Hard to actually read because of sibling bias but has seemed fine to me. 30%
  2. Elandera- i think they fineish i dont recall things. Though they did suggest getting walin protection before, but skindancers weren’t the one targeting as elan had said but still. Dunno if its worth reading into. Overall … uhhhhh congrats on elebvation?” 50%
  3. Burnt - not a lot of talk for the bigger post count. A lot of rp. Very few votes- hasn’t really done any votes since they turned serious. Has previously promised game discussion and not followed through. Happy to chat in pms though when the post/pm ratio allows. 100% :P
  4. Elkanah- I wanna see the rainbow spreadsheet when this is all over, it sounds pretty. Otherwise idk
  5. Straw - Hi straw! Sorry i aint been as talky in the pms, that ratio man.
  6. Xino - probably good - done all the linguistic stuff. Makes sense for them to be good. Course late game it wouldn’t hurt to do some checking for certainty with them but that's only a worst case scenario thingy because they’re as good as being good as we can rely on currently as far as known actions and all that thingies. Also I appreciate the effort theyve been putting in with all the big posts and the tableys 10%
  7. Silber -ehh uncertain - Not a lot to go off of, as hael already brought up, and as they already responded to. When there's not much to go off though, for whatever reason it may be, it always makes me uneasy though. 60%
  8. Karnage - you’re doing fine
  9. Experience- eh? sure?
  10. Devotary - sfine i think
  11. Furaaaaaa be okey? Walins read makes it concerning but idk ill think about it another day
  12. Araris is…. Araris they be peopleing. They vote a lot. Is tha good or bad. Probably good. If everyone got expelled the village would win.
  13. Kynedath - they be a quiet
  14. GreenRover- have they done much? I dont recall what theyve been up to
  15. Lopen -no bells ringing - Had some good interactions in pms, havent paid a jot of attention to them thread activities
  16. Doobely do, typing through the tiredness. Doobleydoo reading through the bleariness. Doobleydoo everyone be evil, Doobley doobely doo. There be elthes. There be many elthes. Thems elvebations be slowing down from lack of people to raise . dont stay up late every night yall. You hit a day you wake early and you know death. 

Enjoy this thing of uselessnessishness 

tldr
I dont have a clue and i'm tired

curious how many masters we about to see 

do you think many will die again? THings always go nuclear when the masteryies start...

tick tock tick tock

yknow we've never seen a place go boom. no walin will keep that streak up! someone said he went alchemy right? i dont even know anymore. ye the linguisty boi xino did.  Linguistics is such a fun field. i very much enjoyed it in lg18. curious to see whats going to happen with the imre being so much more populated now. kinda scary tbh.

 

Put in lodging people. Them streets be hungrying

nom nom

 

okay yeah i sleep. pester me about maybe rewriting that sanely and thoughfully tommorow pls. And make me vote for once. is a bad habbit.

Also i need to rp. I haven't rped in a while... my poor tuition. That re'lar inflation. pity you elthe. it lots. I don't need hte reductions i guess but they nice.

 

ANYWAY NIGHT pls dont last second lynch me or anything when i cant respond >> Its terrifying going to sleep when its after nowish when you all start bandwagoning 20 votes on people or something. THough. theres worse things to happen to someone this game than being expelled. Expulsion can be pretty nice tbh. I wonder if any namers have bone. That ones fun. 

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19 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Since Plum Bob is a Re'lar and up item, both of those elevations would have had to happen to the same person, and that person would have had to craft a Plum Bob last turn in order for there to be one in use this turn.

Any Re'lar or higher with any elevations in Alchemy can craft plum bobs, they're just more effective with multiple Alchemy elevations.

Since Kynedath is an Edema Ruh and hasn't been getting obvious tuition reductions, it's likely he has fewer than six talents to qualify for the 10% kill chance on the streets unless he actively dropped out of University beforehand. Kynedath was up for the lynch 3.2, and nobody appeared to care enough to stop that lynch. Once Kynedath became a candidate, the pool of lynchees only increased with Xino's retracted votes on Stink and CadCom's split vote. It's possible for CadCom and Kynedath to be evil together, but self-preservation alone could explain CadCom's votes without the need to be protecting someone else. Other than that, the Skindancers, including Walin(though Walin didn't post until there were six candidates), saw no obvious need to intervene.

I don't particularly think that Fura is evil. I'm not entirely sure why I believe that, although partly it's because I'm still suspicious of CadCom, who put Fura up for the lynch 3.2 which resulted in Fura being "roleblocked" (again, anyone who's been to Imre can easily have roleblock immunity, but Fura did claim to be roleblocked and wasn't elevated this turn despite presumably having lots of EP, so it's entirely possible the roleblock is real).  

Four people is perhaps too many for the lynch, but I think I'll put votes on Elandera, Elandera, switching as necessary to narrow the field. Three people is a good number I think, though two might be better since three people makes expulsion far from guaranteed.

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But maybe he’d been thinking about this the wrong way. If he couldn’t avoid the skindancer’s actual attack… could he shrug it off? Was there any way for him to resist the attempted mental sabotage, either indefinitely or until he could fight off the perpetrator?

It seemed like a crazy idea on the surface to be sure, especially given he had no idea how the skindancers’ sabotage worked. But could it be that it wasn’t all that different from normal insanity- just exacerbated? Presumably the skindancers worked their deadly magic by getting inside your head and messing things around. If that was the case, then what he was doing right now- breaking problems down into simpler ones to reduce stress- might be exactly what he needed in order to stay out of the Crockery.

It would make sense that they chose the University for the attack, if that’s the case, he thought to himself. It’s probably one of the most stressful places in all the Four Corners. Well, enough speculation about the skindancers. He had finances to compute. From his pack he pulled out some sheets and a pencil and got to work. Who would have thought Arithmetics would be so helpful?

----

Starting to think I might not have time to do super in depth analysis today... oh, well. I guess I can produce more charts, at least.

Vote Count

Fura (4) - Elandera, Elandera, Karnage, Karnage
Kynedath (4) - Lopen, Lopen, Araris, Araris
Devotary (2) - Hael, Hael
Elandera (2) - Devotary, Devotary

The 4 people & 45 DP chart, reposted for your convenience:

4 People, 45 DP 0DP 1DP 2DP 3DP 4DP 5DP 6DP 7DP 8DP 9DP 10DP 11DP
No effect 31.38% 24.04% 17.67% 12.51% 8.54% 5.62% 3.53% 2.10% 1.15% 0.58% 0.26% 0.10%
1-turn Roleblock 19.96% 18.28% 15.82% 12.93% 9.92% 7.10% 4.69% 2.83% 1.53% 0.74% 0.31% 0.11%
3-turn Roleblock 30.29% 32.27% 32.43% 30.81% 27.78% 23.84% 19.49% 15.15% 11.13% 7.64% 4.84% 2.78%
Expulsion 17.77% 25.25% 34.05% 43.75% 53.75% 63.44% 72.29% 79.93% 86.18% 91.04% 94.59% 97.01%

3 people & 45 DP:

...wow, that's a jump.

3 People, 45 DP 0DP 1DP 2DP 3DP 4DP 5DP 6DP 7DP 8DP 9DP 10DP 11DP
No effect 10.29% 6.98% 4.56% 2.84% 1.68% 0.93% 0.48% 0.22% 0.09% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
1-turn Roleblock 10.71% 8.02% 5.62% 3.67% 2.22% 1.23% 0.62% 0.28% 0.11% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
3-turn Roleblock 27.77% 24.39% 20.45% 16.35% 12.43% 8.94% 6.03% 3.78% 2.19% 1.15% 0.55% 0.23%
Expulsion 51.22% 60.60% 69.37% 77.13% 83.67% 88.91% 92.88% 95.71% 97.61% 98.77% 99.43% 99.76%

2 people & 45 DP:

2 People, 45 DP 0DP 1DP 2DP 3DP 4DP 5DP 6DP 7DP 8DP 9DP 10DP 11DP
No effect 0.24% 0.11% 0.05% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1-turn Roleblock 0.30% 0.14% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3-turn Roleblock 3.33% 1.98% 1.10% 0.56% 0.27% 0.12% 0.05% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Expulsion 96.13% 97.77% 98.80% 99.39% 99.72% 99.88% 99.95% 99.98% 99.99% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

The last three rows aren't technically 100%, just very close.

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Well, it looks like we haven't had the explosion of last minute votes(at least not yet), so I guess I'll place my votes on Kynedath, Kynedath, because I don't want to spread votes out even more, and they are the most suspicious to me of those who have votes on them. 

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Alright, with Experience's vote, we still have several people alive who haven't cast a vote. Also, since so many people are sure Fura (Fura) is village, I'll remove my vote from there ( @Karnage, I suggest the same as to not unnecessarily punish a Ruh). I don't believe we need to pile the votes on Kynedath since he'll eventually fall to the same fate as Zillah unless he returns. I trust Hael's judgement enough to agree with his vote. Devotary (Devotary).

Fura (2) - Karnage, Karnage
Kynedath (6) - Lopen, Lopen, Araris, Araris, Experience, Experience
Devotary (4) - Hael, Hael, Elandera, Elandera
Elandera (2) - Devotary, Devotary

@Elkanah, @Straw, @xinoehp512, @Lord_Silberfarben, @Furamirionind, @Kynedath, @GreenRover.

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Hmm, not sure who to vote on but I need the tuition reduction. Kynedath I guess?

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Posted (edited)

Sorry for not being in-thread this turn. I have had time, so I don't really have much of an excuse. It's most just been me messing our with friends outside the game... Anyways, I'm here for the time being, and am going to try to contribute something.

Well, I'm one of 4 people up for the lynch... I think I might actually prefer to be expelled over getting roleblocked again. At least I have an action I can use now. : /

Ninja'd by Elandera.

29 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Alright, with Experience's vote, we still have several people alive who haven't cast a vote. Also, since so many people are sure Fura (Fura) is village, I'll remove my vote from there ( @Karnage, I suggest the same as to not unnecessarily punish a Ruh). I don't believe we need to pile the votes on Kynedath since he'll eventually fall to the same fate as Zillah unless he returns. I trust Hael's judgement enough to agree with his vote. Devotary (Devotary).

Oh... hm... Alright time to look into Devotary again? Something bugged me a bit about our PM this turn... Probably just the minor fear-mongering about Imre... Though I don't really think that to be AI.

On 5/14/2020 at 10:46 AM, Araris Valerian said:

DeTess is insane, and Xino almost was. That makes me wonder if Fura is on a hit list as well. I feel better about Fura being village than most players, so I don't think Walin was trying to be misleading.

This line bothers me for some reason as well... Though I'll admit the first time I read it I thought it said, "That almost makes me wonder if Fura..." which is far more suspicious. So I think my issue with the post is more how I read it initially.

5 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:
  • Haelbarde - They seem a’ight? Been doing lists breaking down suspicions on people, done a fair bit of rp,  presumably cause the plight of the edema, my interactions with them have been good. Some pming too. Hard to actually read because of sibling bias but has seemed fine to me. 30%
  • Elandera- i think they fineish i dont recall things. Though they did suggest getting walin protection before, but skindancers weren’t the one targeting as elan had said but still. Dunno if its worth reading into. Overall … uhhhhh congrats on elebvation?” 50%
  • Burnt - not a lot of talk for the bigger post count. A lot of rp. Very few votes- hasn’t really done any votes since they turned serious. Has previously promised game discussion and not followed through. Happy to chat in pms though when the post/pm ratio allows. 100% :P
  • Elkanah- I wanna see the rainbow spreadsheet when this is all over, it sounds pretty. Otherwise idk
  • Straw - Hi straw! Sorry i aint been as talky in the pms, that ratio man.
  • Xino - probably good - done all the linguistic stuff. Makes sense for them to be good. Course late game it wouldn’t hurt to do some checking for certainty with them but that's only a worst case scenario thingy because they’re as good as being good as we can rely on currently as far as known actions and all that thingies. Also I appreciate the effort theyve been putting in with all the big posts and the tableys 10%
  • Silber -ehh uncertain - Not a lot to go off of, as hael already brought up, and as they already responded to. When there's not much to go off though, for whatever reason it may be, it always makes me uneasy though. 60%
  • Karnage - you’re doing fine
  • Experience- eh? sure?
  • Devotary - sfine i think
  • Furaaaaaa be okey? Walins read makes it concerning but idk ill think about it another day
  • Araris is…. Araris they be peopleing. They vote a lot. Is tha good or bad. Probably good. If everyone got expelled the village would win.
  • Kynedath - they be a quiet
  • GreenRover- have they done much? I dont recall what theyve been up to
  • Lopen -no bells ringing - Had some good interactions in pms, havent paid a jot of attention to them thread activities
  • Doobely do, typing through the tiredness. Doobleydoo reading through the bleariness. Doobleydoo everyone be evil, Doobley doobely doo. There be elthes. There be many elthes. Thems elvebations be slowing down from lack of people to raise . dont stay up late every night yall. You hit a day you wake early and you know death. 

There are a lot of percentages missing, and the words don't really tell us much about what you think about the players... However I'm pretty sure I saw you do the exact same thing in a village before... So NAI I guess.

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Since Kynedath is an Edema Ruh and hasn't been getting obvious tuition reductions, it's likely he has fewer than six talents to qualify for the 10% kill chance on the streets unless he actively dropped out of University beforehand. Kynedath was up for the lynch 3.2, and nobody appeared to care enough to stop that lynch. Once Kynedath became a candidate, the pool of lynchees only increased with Xino's retracted votes on Stink and CadCom's split vote. It's possible for CadCom and Kynedath to be evil together, but self-preservation alone could explain CadCom's votes without the need to be protecting someone else. Other than that, the Skindancers, including Walin(though Walin didn't post until there were six candidates), saw no obvious need to intervene.

I don't particularly think that Fura is evil. I'm not entirely sure why I believe that, although partly it's because I'm still suspicious of CadCom, who put Fura up for the lynch 3.2 which resulted in Fura being "roleblocked" (again, anyone who's been to Imre can easily have roleblock immunity, but Fura did claim to be roleblocked and wasn't elevated this turn despite presumably having lots of EP, so it's entirely possible the roleblock is real).  

Four people is perhaps too many for the lynch, but I think I'll put votes on Elandera, Elandera, switching as necessary to narrow the field. Three people is a good number I think, though two might be better since three people makes expulsion far from guaranteed.

I normally don't say this about Devotary, but I think this first paragraph is pretty villager-y, and not just because she is defending me (for what it's worth, I normally am suspicious of non-Drakes defending me). The first paragraph's reasoning seems good, and I'm currently somewhat inclined to think this is true. I'm not sure if CadCom is evil or not.

I'm not sure about the second paragraph due to the sole reason Devotary in the first p. seemed to be assuming that CadCom isn't an elim, and in the second paragraph she is assuming he is an elim. That being said, I don't recall Devotary doubling back on herself often at all, so It may be more of a villager thing.

The only thing that would make me concerned here is if Devotary and Kynedath are on the same team. However, looking back at 3.2, while she voted on the other major lynch (CadCom), she also was trying to get people to consolidate votes, making it more likely for someone to get expelled. I don't think she'd do that if her teammate was leading in the lynch.

The last option to lynch is Elandera. However since I did my last analysis of her, I've become less convinced Bard is evil, and by association, less convinced she is. I'm going to post what I have now as there isn't much time left in the cycle, but I'm seriously considering just spreading out the votes, as I'm not sure I like any of these options. 
Oh, I forgot Kynedath, I should look into him on my own, though Devotary does make good points.

Edit: I'm going point out that Straw was under a lot of scrutiny early game, but hasn't been talked about much since. Might be true of other players too, but I just realized this.

Edited by Furamirionind
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Ok, not much time. I kinda feel like kynedath is a wasted lynch at this point. I said I'd lynch Devotary before, so I'll put my votes where my mouth is. Um, mobile voting...GMs might I ask your mercy and let you imagine these words are colored correctly. Kynedath(green) kynedath(green) Devotary(red)devotary(red)

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5 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Edit: I'm going point out that Straw was under a lot of scrutiny early game, but hasn't been talked about much since. Might be true of other players too, but I just realized this.

I think that was more about our opinions on voting distributions than actual suspicion of me.

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Looking Over what Elandera did, she put in a lot of effort towards analyzing Walin. She also presented everything, which makes it easier for others to analyse these things too. When I was reading these posts over, I started getting suspicious of Lopen as well. Someone who I have been suspecting more and more as the game goes on, and seemed a bit sus to me in out PM a turn or 2 ago. She also picked me out as suspicious, which I don't find suspicious. : )

I'm continuing to look over more people right now, but if I vote on a train, I'm voting on Kynedath, despite agreeing with Lopen it's a wasted lynch.
If I spread out votes, one vote will probably be on Lopen (sorry Lopen, I know this is late).

If no one else posts after me, I'll keep editing stuff in.

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Posted (edited)

*sigh* I don't know what to do... My brain just can't process anything properly today. I'm really only posting this to avoid tuition reductions for PMing.

Hopefully next round goes better for me and I can avoid dying...

----

Maern took a step out of the door and froze.

It was dark. Pitch black. Apparently during his long study session, he’d lost track of time and sunset had passed him by. Foolish he thought to himself, feeling a spike of anxiety and beginning a fast walk- but not too fast, as he didn’t want to draw attention. Attention was bad on the streets after dark. If he just hurried and avoided being noticed, he’d get home no problem.

This is the right way, right? he thought to himself, feeling a burst of panic. It sort of seemed familiar… but at the same time off. He’d been walking the same path home so many times by now that it had become automatic- but what if he’d messed it up.

A terrible feeling of disorientation swept over him. He was lost- lost on the streets of Imre, where any number of individuals might walk by and relieve him of his money, his freedom, or his life. Terror began to cloud his thoughts I’m going to die, I’m going to die, I’m going to die…

Focus! he thought. He needed… focus…

And then, all of sudden, he realized that his anxiety wasn’t natural.

Edited by xinoehp512
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Oops. For some reason it slipped my mind that Kynedath, Kynedath has been inactive. I guess I'll place a vote on both Devotary and Elandera

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Posted (edited)

28 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I'm not sure about the second paragraph due to the sole reason Devotary in the first p. seemed to be assuming that CadCom isn't an elim, and in the second paragraph she is assuming he is an elim. That being said, I don't recall Devotary doubling back on herself often at all, so It may be more of a villager thing.

The point of the first paragraph was that CadCom could have voted in self-preservation, especially if he was evil, regardless of whether Kynedath was evil. The second part was that should CadCom be evil, it's less likely that you are.

Hmm. I don't think Fura+Kynedath is a hit, but we do need expulsions and I will admit to not being super sure about Elandera. Being expelled isn't completely disastrous for me right now with two elevations. I can retract from Elandera, Elandera. I don't really want to vote for someone else though. 

Fura (2) - Karnage, Karnage
Kynedath (3/5?) - , Araris, Araris, Straw
Devotary (5/7?) - Hael, Hael, Elandera, Elandera, Lopen, Lopen, Experience
Elandera (1) - Experience

Edited by Devotary of Spontaneity
Added vote count.
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