914 posts in this topic

Okay, got the rest done. Just to keep everything all in one place, I've reposted the first half in the same spot, although I'll note I revised Elandera back to just neutral, pending what they have to say on looking at Walin.

Spoiler

2. Elandera - (Noble) - Has posted a suspicions of a few players during 3.2, 4.1, but hasn't acted on any suspicions to date. Hoping to hear back from them this cycle. Neutral.
3. Burnt Spaghetti - (Commoner) - Hasn't contributed much in thread, but I've had an occasional PM from them. More based on the PMs, I'm reading her village.
5. Elkanah - (Edema Ruh) - Followed Araris fairly late in 3.2 in voting Devotary, but otherwise has spent time trying to figure out the elevations jiksaw puzzle. Hasn't recently shared any particular suspicions. I remain neutral as they've shared more than Elendera, but I'd hope they'd be able to be a bit more active the lynch. Otherwise they're in much the same place as Elandera.
6. Straw - (Commoner) - Poke voted Rath 4 hours before end cycle - I say poke vote because Straw the point was to encourage content from Rath, who was otherwise flying under the radar. A vote like that should be place a lot earlier, and the result was Rath expelled, so now has less reason to contribute. Probably leaning towards elim for the moment based on that.
7. xinoehp512 - (Commoner) - Claims to have detected Bard lying twice. Bard hasn't even responded to the second accusation. Also got attacked by what was presumably the sabotage. Strong village read.
8. Lord_Silberfarben - (Commoner) - New player. Mostly RP. Only posted at the start of 4.1 to congratulate Walin. Expressed suspicion of Fura in 3.2 but didn't do anything about it then. They've been raised three times, so it's not like they're a village vanilla and disengaged from the game because they've got nothing to do... They've been more active elsewhere, so the lack of activity here could suggest what activity is in an elim doc. I'm undecided, so I'll just mark them as neutral.
10. 
Karnage - (Noble) - Pretty active in the first term or so, but activity has dropped off alot. Their last votes have just been from joining on bandwagons, without any particular reasoning behind them. Putting them down as neutral for the moment.
14. Experience - (Commoner) - A relatively new player, I'm pretty happy with what I'm seeing from them. They are keeping engaged, were one of the earliest to talk about trying to focus lynches, noticed/enquired about how inactivity was handled in regards to Zillah during the vote. I'm leaning village...
15. 
Devotary of Spontaneity - (Noble) - Not a lot of game relevant content in early cycles, and in support of spreading votes. Switched to wanting to focus on giving the lynch fangs in 3.1. Expressed suspicion of Elendar 3.1, 3.2 but hasn't acted on it yet. Going to put them down as neutral based on their posts, but my gut would lean towards elim if push came to shove. 
18. Furamirionind - (Edema Ruh) - Has remained quite active and engaged, trying to stimulate discussion, particularly around lynches. I'm still reading them village
20. Araris Valerian - (Noble) - All for meaningful bloodthirsty lynches, but hasn't really been around all that much. Hoping to hear from them more this cycle. I'll keep my neutral read on them for this turn at least.
23. 
Kynedath - (Edema Ruh) - Last posted 3.1, so currently inactive. If Zillah is any indication, there's a fair chance they're on the streets. Figure I'm neutral, and we may well see them die soon enough if they remain inactive.
25. 
GreenRover - (Noble) - Only played a few games by the looks of it, and been low active in each of them. Still very few posts. Only one elevation. I don't really know how to read them, so going with neutral.
27. 
TheMightyLopen - (Noble) - After being low activity towards the start, remained fairly active since. I've gotten to them last again, and I'm not sure how to read them quickly. Nothing stood out as being particularly alignment indicative one way or the other on a quick readthrough of their posts. Putting down neutral until I get to read through his posts properly in the morning.

Okay, with that essentially done, the people I'd consider putting a complaint on presently would be Devotary, Karnage, Straw, Elkanah, probably in about that order. I'm hoping to see some posts from them this cycle though, so I'l wait until they've had a chance to post before putting a complaint down I think.

 

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I voted on Devotary only for the tuition reduction. Sorry, I'll add more after work.

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Apperantly I didnt vote last turn? Idk if I even remember last turn at all. I think I'm getting the QF and LG confused with each other at this point... I'll try to get my head straight once school is done.

CadCom, Stink and Rath all got unlucky. That sucks.

Zillah died to the streets, and Walin died to an assassin, meaning that Xino must have been the skin dancer attack. I thought Xino was village before, but @xinoehp512 any idea why you survived?

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Posted (edited)

Wait. It says xino was attacked, not xino was attacked and protected. Does this mean he's going to die or was it just missed? @Elbereth @little wilson

Edited by Experience
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There was protection on the attack. I couldn't remember if El had put "and protected" on Bard's failed attack. I'll edit that in.

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Bard was attacked as well?

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Yeah, but then we lynched him for surviving, so it's okay.

(Sorry that was glib)

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26 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Bard was attacked as well?

Not this past turn. I was referring to consistency, since Bard is the only other player thus far to have survived an attack. I couldn't remember what was said about that attack/survival though.

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:(

I'd say it's at least slightly more likely that CadCom and STINK (and myself of course) are village at least.

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Posted (edited)

@Haelbarde I’m reading you (slightly) more as village now. I disagree with your vote elim read on Straw on the grounds that Straw often does things as a villager that I read as elim, and that I had an elim read on Rath, so I’m fine with his expulsion. I’d also be happy to lynch Devotary today, although I think looking at Walin’s posts is a good idea as well for lynch targets.

Also, if the write up has anything to say, it appears that Walin was killed by a Namer using Iron. If that is the case, the Namer should be wary of their sanity, since they are basically a confirmed villager.

Edit: Okay, I looked at Walin, and it seems the only game relevant things he has done are:
1) Make a list of players making lists
2) Say he has village reads on DeTess, Xino, and Fura
3) Say he has no read on Kynedath
4) Mention having a single EP in Naming

DeTess is insane, and Xino almost was. That makes me wonder if Fura is on a hit list as well. I feel better about Fura being village than most players, so I don't think Walin was trying to be misleading.

Kynedath is on my radar, perhaps even more so because Walin refused to comment. If Walin was telling the truth about EP in Naming, then I'd guess an elim is trying to become a Master in Naming.

So as to make use of this before it gets too old, I'll put a double complaint on Kynedath Kynedath, who was on my suspicion list a couple months ago.

Edited by Araris Valerian
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I’ll just be spewing out my random thoughts, so feel free to tell me if they don’t make sense.

Hm. Glad to see we’re making progress, but it looks like it came at a heavy cost. I’ll be looking at Walin’s old posts to figure out who he had been talking with more than others (which may have easier to figure out if elevations happened before kills, but oh well). 

Also, the group of expelled students is growing rapidly (as of this turn at least). The general consensus is that Bard is a skindancer, but is there an easy way to know if one or two of the other three are as well?  Anybody have a plum bob or two to spare (to use on the expelled students specifically)?

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34 minutes ago, GreenRover said:

I’ll just be spewing out my random thoughts, so feel free to tell me if they don’t make sense.

Hm. Glad to see we’re making progress, but it looks like it came at a heavy cost. I’ll be looking at Walin’s old posts to figure out who he had been talking with more than others (which may have easier to figure out if elevations happened before kills, but oh well). 

Also, the group of expelled students is growing rapidly (as of this turn at least). The general consensus is that Bard is a skindancer, but is there an easy way to know if one or two of the other three are as well?  Anybody have a plum bob or two to spare (to use on the expelled students specifically)?

Well, the plum bobs can't be used to ask if they are skin dancers. I havent put much thought behind them, but the main things I can think of them being useful for are past/future action intentions and field info.

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Posted (edited)

Comprehensive review of all of Walin's posts (which thankfully, were not many in number):

Term 1.1

Spoiler

Very first post checking in and saying he'd place a poke vote later, then RP. Nothing of significance.

Term 1.2

Spoiler

Listed who posted vote counts, with a somewhat confusing statement that the people on the list might be village or elim, but are definitely active. No reads on any of the people, though.

Term 2.1

Spoiler

RP and apology for being inactive. RP included that he was studying linguistics. (Does anyone know what fields he was elevated in?)

Term 2.2

Spoiler

Apologizes for not being active, says he doesn't have any reads, mentions votes are low and Skindancer attacks are getting more likely to fail. Then follows it up with RP that says he's not tracking everything very well.

Despite calling out a need to vote, doesn't vote and hasn't yet in the game.

Still doesn't vote, but suggests we all make it a priority to lynch someone.

Term 3.1

Spoiler

Village read on Xino, DeTess, and Fura. Neutral on everyone but Bard because he got a lot of votes and "WGGs are good to check for."

Of note, DeTess went insane that turn, leaving Xino and Fura still alive and unexpelled. One of the two is possibly elim.

Term 3.2

Spoiler

Says they have no read on Kynedath.

Term 4.1

Spoiler

Explains a little about getting elevated to master. Village reads on Xino, Fura, and me.

First and only votes of the game were both on Zillah at the very end of the turn. 

To sum up his posts, he gave village reads on Xino and Fura twice, DeTess the turn she was killed, and me once. He mentioned Kynedath once with a no read (which was done when Kynedath had a strong lead on a lynch).

Now for a less* comprehensive review of players who mentioned Walin:

*This list does not include mentions in player/rank lists/vote counts.

Term 1.1

Spoiler

Elkanah tags Walin in a group of those who have yet to post. Also includes Lum, Experience, Araris, Rath, STINK, Rover, and Bard.

Coda poke-voted Walin saying it was RNG.

Term 1.2

Spoiler

Xino mentions Walin not posting D1 and getting brought on the Horns. Later pointed out by Straw he likely meant Bard. Xino responds to Straw saying Walin was another who gave a reason for inactivity.

Sart votes on Walin to prod him to give thoughts on the game.

Term 2.1

Spoiler

Lopen mentioned Sart voting on Walin and Burnt before going insane, saying it's doubtful he was sabotaged for the votes.

Lopen and Straw also mentioned Walin in a later post of nobles/commoners without votes.

Rath votes on Walin, seems to be a poke/stab vote and to comply with Lopen's and Straw's suggestions.

Term 2.2

Spoiler

Straw mentions Walin along with Rath, Rover, and CadCom to prod them into sharing opinions. In his next post, he votes on Walin.

Karnage also mentions Walin to ask about the one post per turn.

Xino lists Walin among his top suspicions along with STINK, Bard, and Experience, votes on the latter two. Reason for suspicion is low activity.

Lopen gives read list, no read on Walin.

Straw retracts his vote on Walin after Walin posted.

Experience votes on Walin and Straw. Reason for Walin is the relatively low but consistent activity.

Devotary mentions Walin while talking about the spread of votes, concerned about concentrated votes on Walin, Straw, and Lopen.

Fura mentions they don't like the votes on Walin, Straw or Lopen.

Term 3.1

Spoiler

Coda gives a read list and mentions Walin hasn't said much.

Term 3.2

Spoiler

Araris mentions Walin in a list of people who didn't vote (Burnt, Experience, Zillah, Walin, Rover). Mentions elims are not likely in that list as voting is a way to get/save money.

Devotary also makes a list of people without votes, but mentions Walin and Burnt definitely saw the votes on Bard.

Both were responding to Xino who mentioned those who didn't vote or didn't vote on only Bard are suspicious.

Fura mentions Walin in a hypothetical voting situation to argue with Devotary about even/odd votes on Bard.

Hael includes Walin in a review/read list. Mentions most of them are apologizing for not posting much. No read given, just lists "under the radar."

Term 4.1 (mentions of him drastically increased because this is when he became a Master. I am not including all of the mentions, just ones with possible alignment info.)

Spoiler

Xino expresses concerns about Walin having low activity and still managing to hit Master first.

Elkanah congratulates Walin, asks them if they are a skindancer.

I congratulate him, and mention keeping him alive until we can determine he's not village. (Not a good look, I have to admit :P)

CadCom lists possibilities for elim!Walin and village!Walin becoming Master. Suggests voting on the most suspicious El'the to keep them from elevating.

Burn mentions Walin's low activity, states she's concerned about getting more masters who have given very little info so far.

Elkanah states they're surprised at Walin's elevation, and agrees to expelling El'thes.

Lopen gives read list, also surprised by Walin's elevation to Master so quickly. Advises them to give abilities that are the most useful to village, and urges caution with insanity abilities. Surprisingly, doesn't actually give a read on Walin.

TL;DR

I am now most suspicious of @Furamirionind, followed slightly by @TheMightyLopen. Most of my suspicions of Xino have been assuaged (at least until we can finally get an alignment scan on Bard). 

Reason for suspicion on Fura: Mentioned by Walin as village in every read he gave, and was against votes on Walin and Lopen (who I now suspect of being elim).

Reason for suspicion on Lopen: Despite giving a few read lists, never actually gave any reads on Walin.

To that end: Fura, Fura

Edited by Elandera
No idea why my text went so weird.
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Posted (edited)

Okay I am now going through my list of who I suspect. These are my top 5 suspects in no particular order. Though I don't have a lot of evidence for suspicion. 

1. Burnt Spaghetti 

2. Straw

3. Fura

4. Green Rover

5. Xino

 

Slight trust for Haelbarde and Experiance.

As for my vote I will put them on Fura, Fura. Because of the continued fishing for information in pm's. No more needs to be said that is all I am willing to say. If anyone wants to know more just pm me.

I will be back in a while. Probably in 6 hours or tomorrow morning.

Edited by Karnage
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They'd finally done it. Leo didn't know who, but someone had finally revealed a Skindancer. Strangely enough, this actually made Leo feel a little better. I'd been starting to worry it was all some strange plot to make us all paranoid, but now that we've actually found one, I feel much more resolve to find any more there might be. At the very least I feel less guilty about all of the finger pointing going around lately.

Leo finished his breakfast and made his way to class with a bit extra pep in his steps. I'll still need to be careful. It's unlikely one Skindancer could have caused all of this. No, I need to take a look at my fellow Students that much closer now. Hadn't Lin Wa recently been appointed Master? It seems the list of people to trust in the University just got much shorter.

With that in mind, Leo didn't even bother to pretend he wasn't watching everyone very closely. At the end of the day though, he felt frustrated. I don't know enough about these people to be able to tell if they're acting strangely or not. Looks like I'll have to get closer to them in order to catch them slip up.


So yes, well done! Unfortunate all 3 of the others with votes were expelled, but hopefully at least one is a Skindancer? If so, we may have just taken out 2 of them, which would be huge. It at least starts narrowing things down a good deal. Such as we'll know someone still attending the University sent in the sabotage if it hits someone also still attending.

Here's the list of attending students left:

Spoiler

Lopen
Elandera
Karnage
Devotary
Araris
Greenrover
Burnt
Straw
Xino
Silberfarben
Experience
Kynedath
Haelbarde
Fura
Elkanah

That's 15 total. So just over half of what we started with. With the sabotage apparently hitting Xino, I'm even more inclined to trust he's village. Other than that, whoever killed Walin. I suppose one of the expelled could have been the one? That would be really unfortunate. Regardless, things are really heating up. At this point, not sure who I want to lynch. I think we should maybe be careful about mass expulsions though? I mean, it was unlucky how it happened this time with Zillah dying on the streets, but still. 

Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to make any sort of big reads list post any time soon. I'm going to help my parents move over the next few days, so my activity will be a bit lower than usual, and my posts will probably be a lot shorter as well as I'll likely only ever be on my phone during that time. 

Ninja'd...Elandera, I honestly didn't remember much of what Walin had posted, so him becoming Master was the first time he really became any kind of focus of mine, which is why I didn't have any sort of read on him. I'm not sure I agree with your suspicion of Fura either. I think I agree more with Araris' assessment that Walin wasn't actually trying to be misleading about his reads. I realize you suspect me and Fura so this might not help, but hey, that's how it be. :P I like the initiative to give links to everything about Walin though.

I also think Rover's Plum Bob idea could be interesting. Not sure what kind of info that can actually give, but worth looking into I think. If there are any high level village Alchemists that is. At this point I would think there'd be at least one though.

Anyways, I should probably put a vote or two down. I'd be down for a lynch on Kynedath again, although they've been pretty inactive so I don't know how useful it would be. I'll go ahead and drop them on him, but I'll try to do some reviewing and see if I find anyone that seems like a better target. Kynedath Kynedath

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4 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

6. Straw - (Commoner) - Poke voted Rath 4 hours before end cycle - I say poke vote because Straw the point was to encourage content from Rath, who was otherwise flying under the radar. A vote like that should be place a lot earlier, and the result was Rath expelled, so now has less reason to contribute. Probably leaning towards elim for the moment based on that.

Rath was on at the time, and responded. However, they continued to say nothing at all, other than mildly protesting about me complaining about them. Also, I didn't expect them to be expelled, and I don't believe the odds of them being expelled were that high. So far this turn, they've said that the newly expelled students are more likely to be village, which doesn't make very much sense in my opinion? I guess they might be saying that if they were an elim there'd be more of a push to get votes off of them?

1 hour ago, Karnage said:

1. Burnt Spaghetti 

2. Straw

3. Fura

4. Green Rover

5. Xino

Any chance of some explanations for these suspicions?

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@Elandera All the other players that Walin gave a village read on we have high confidence are actually village. What makes Fura different?

@Karnage Except for Green Rover, I don't really share any of your suspicions. Could you elaborate on them? (doesn't need to be a lot of elaboration, I'd just like to know if there's something I've missed).

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So someone could have been elevated in Walin's field, but there was one field that didn't have any non-El'the with EP in it. Not sure how helpful that information is since we don't know the other eight fields people were elevated in and it's not worthwhile to ask everyone to share.

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Well, the plum bobs can't be used to ask if they are skin dancers. I havent put much thought behind them, but the main things I can think of them being useful for are past/future action intentions and field info.

Plum bobs can be used to ask single, simple questions up to five times. Presumably, one could ask "Is your character a Skindancer?" and would receive a truthful answer in response, proving the alignment of your target. (I could see the GMs letting a Skindancer claim they weren't a Skindancer to a question of "Are you a Skindancer?" on the basis that technically, none of the actual people playing this game are Skindancers, but at some point this gets silly.)  Follow up questions like "Is [Character X] a skindancer?" would probably be acceptable, if dependent on targeting a Skindancer originally. Something like "Which living player character in this game other than yourself is most likely to be a Skindancer?" is quite possibly too complex, but at least it's a single question unlike the "Who are the other Skindancers?" example.

1 hour ago, Karnage said:

Okay I am now going through my list of who I suspect. These are my top 5 suspects in no particular order. Though I don't have a lot of evidence for suspicion. 

Fura likes to fish for information in PMs regardless of alignment to my recollection, though without knowing the context of your PM it's hard to tell how suspicious his requests were.

I don't see Xino being evil unless Bard is village, and I don't know why elim!Xino would be so determined to frame village!Bard if the lies would be uncovered as soon as Bard died. No obvious 3.1 claims jump out at me as things village!Bard was lying about, especially after saying he would be willing to have Linguistics Analysis scan him again. Spending a sabotage attacking an elim!Xino also seems unnecessary given that he was generally considered village already.

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19 minutes ago, Straw said:

Rath was on at the time, and responded. However, they continued to say nothing at all, other than mildly protesting about me complaining about them. Also, I didn't expect them to be expelled, and I don't believe the odds of them being expelled were that high. So far this turn, they've said that the newly expelled students are more likely to be village, which doesn't make very much sense in my opinion? I guess they might be saying that if they were an elim there'd be more of a push to get votes off of them?

From my understanding, the masters have a say in whether someone gets expelled or not.  Since Walin was the only player master...and is confirmed to have been a skindancer, anyone expelled by the masters is slightly more likely to be village.

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Posted (edited)

7 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

From my understanding, the masters have a say in whether someone gets expelled or not.  Since Walin was the only player master...and is confirmed to have been a skindancer, anyone expelled by the masters is slightly more likely to be village.

Kills come before the Horns, and I believe the GMs said that Walin's stuff was done by a NPC.

EDIT: @Rathmaskal here's the specific GM clarification: 

 

Edited by Straw
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1 hour ago, Karnage said:

Okay I am now going through my list of who I suspect. These are my top 5 suspects in no particular order. Though I don't have a lot of evidence for suspicion. 

1. Burnt Spaghetti 

2. Straw

3. Fura

4. Green Rover

5. Xino

 

Slight trust for Haelbarde and Experiance.

As for my vote I will put them on Fura, Fura. Because of the continued fishing for information in pm's. No more needs to be said that is all I am willing to say. If anyone wants to know more just pm me.

I will be back in a while. Probably in 6 hours or tomorrow morning.

I thought I posted my response to you, but I guess not?
Anyways, I was asking if you have any reasons for any of your non-me suspicions, but that has already been asked by araris.

8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Fura likes to fish for information in PMs regardless of alignment to my recollection, though without knowing the context of your PM it's hard to tell how suspicious his requests were.

See, this was going to be the next part of my response. I haven't PMed Karnage at all this game. Clearly there is some inside information somewhere. I will 100% admit to fishing for info in PMs, but I've been doing that less this game due to the PMing restrictions. I'd like to know who's PM you are referring to. : )
Also, I've only fished in PMs 2-3 times all game, so if you lie I'll know. ; )

18 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Plum bobs can be used to ask single, simple questions up to five times. Presumably, one could ask "Is your character a Skindancer?" and would receive a truthful answer in response, proving the alignment of your target. (I could see the GMs letting a Skindancer claim they weren't a Skindancer to a question of "Are you a Skindancer?" on the basis that technically, none of the actual people playing this game are Skindancers, but at some point this gets silly.)  Follow up questions like "Is [Character X] a skindancer?" would probably be acceptable, if dependent on targeting a Skindancer originally. Something like "Which living player character in this game other than yourself is most likely to be a Skindancer?" is quite possibly too complex, but at least it's a single question unlike the "Who are the other Skindancers?" example.

I can't check the rules as of this moment, however I'm pretty sure I specifically remember that being a banned question. All questions have to be passed by the GMs first, and I think the rules state you can't ask "are you a skindancer?".

And yeah, Xino makes the most sense to be a villager, regardless to Bard's alignment.

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17 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I can't check the rules as of this moment, however I'm pretty sure I specifically remember that being a banned question. All questions have to be passed by the GMs first, and I think the rules state you can't ask "are you a skindancer?".

I don't see any such thing in the rules or clarifications.

BTW @xinoehp512, any more lie detection results you'd care to share with the thread?

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19 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

See, this was going to be the next part of my response. I haven't PMed Karnage at all this game. Clearly there is some inside information somewhere. I will 100% admit to fishing for info in PMs, but I've been doing that less this game due to the PMing restrictions. I'd like to know who's PM you are referring to. : )
Also, I've only fished in PMs 2-3 times all game, so if you lie I'll know. ; )

I can't check the rules as of this moment, however I'm pretty sure I specifically remember that being a banned question. All questions have to be passed by the GMs first, and I think the rules state you can't ask "are you a skindancer?".

And yeah, Xino makes the most sense to be a villager, regardless to Bard's alignment.

Not anything this game. LGs 54 and 55 are what I'm thinking of just from memory, since you don't usually ask me for role/item information, but I feel like I remember that being a significant part of your playstyle in games with PMs.

You can't ask who the other Skindancers are, but I think that's because it counts as multiple questions and not because asking for alignment information is disallowed.

 

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The Master shook his head. “No, luckily he’s fairly unique. He really shouldn’t be in the investigative force at all, but…” he sighed. “He has friends in high places. There’s only so much we can do if we want the University to stay open.”

“Oh,” said Maern, feeling a chill run through him. If Ferwish had connections powerful enough to threaten the University… what chance did he stand? He swallowed. “So, uh… do you want me to stop? Investigating, I mean?”

The Master sighed. “Yes, I suppose,” he said. “You’re not doing any harm, despite what Ferwish might want us to believe. Who knows? Maybe you’ll wind up catching a skindancer after all.”

With that he stood, walked to the door, and exited the building. Maern stood in the wake of silence for a moment before following him out the door and into the brilliant dusk beyond. Time to head home- he wouldn’t want to be late for dinner, after all.

-

Maern sat in the common room, mulling over the events of the day as he ate his stew. Someone was playing the piano- the landlord had paid someone to get it back in tune, and now they usually had someone playing every day for dinner. Maern found it relaxing- especially good considering how stressful this day had been.

----

Here's the updated post count:

Player Post count Status Total 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 3.1 3.2 4.1
@Haelbarde(Edema Ruh) Ruh 33 3 12 3 4 4 4 3
@Elandera (Noble) Noble 23 8 2 2 4 2 3 2
@Burnt Spaghett(Commoner) Commoner 39 7 7 5 8 4 5 3
@DeTess(Commoner) Commoner 29 7 3 8 4 7 Insane Insane
@Elkanah (Edema Ruh) Ruh 41 12 5 5 2 9 2 6
@Straw(Commoner) Commoner 58 10 4 13 14 5 8 4
@xinoehp512 (Commoner) Commoner 41 8 5 5 5 5 9 4
@Lord_Silberfarben(Commoner) Commoner 31 8 2 3 6 6 5 1
@Coda (Noble) Noble 15 3 1 1 2 7 1 Insane
@Karnage (Noble) Noble 25 6 3 5 4 3 2 2
@Hemalurgic Headshot (Noble) Noble 2 2 Insane Insane Insane Insane Insane Insane
@StrikerEZ (Edema Ruh) Ruh 13 5 3 2 3 Insane Insane Insane
@Lumgol (Noble) Noble 5 2 0 3 Insane Insane Insane Insane
@Experience (Commoner) Commoner 17 3 2 1 2 4 1 4
@Devotary of Spontaneity (Noble) Noble 28 7 4 3 3 3 4 4
@CadCom (Edema Ruh) Ruh 24 2 0 1 5 3 3 10
@Sart (Commoner) Commoner 3 1 2 Insane Insane Insane Insane Insane
@Furamirionind (Edema Ruh) Ruh 47 4 2 4 8 11 12 6
@Zillah (Commoner) Commoner 11 4 3 1 2 1 0 0
@Araris Valerian (Noble) Noble 16 2 1 4 4 1 3 1
@Rathmaskal(Commoner) Commoner 7 1 0 1 1 2 0 2
@STINK (Commoner) Commoner 28 1 3 2 5 5 7 5
@Kynedath (Edema Ruh) Ruh 12 4 4 0 3 1 0 0
@Walin (Commoner) Commoner 9 1 1 1 2 1 1 2
@GreenRover (Noble) Noble 7 1 1 1 0 0 3 1
@Young Bard (Commoner) Commoner 13 0 1 3 3 6 0 0
@TheMightyLopen (Noble) Noble 25 6 3 3 3 3 3 4
    Total 118 74 80 97 93 76 64
    Average 4.37037037 2.846153846 3.2 4.041666667 4.043478261 3.454545455 3.047619048
    Nobles 37 15 22 20 19 19 14
    Average 4.111111111 1.875 2.75 2.857142857 2.714285714 2.714285714 2.333333333
    Commoners 51 33 43 52 46 36 25
    Average 4.25 2.75 3.909090909 4.727272727 4.181818182 3.6 2.5
    Edema Ruh 30 26 15 25 28 21 25
    Average 5 4.333333333 2.5 4.166666667 5.6 4.2 5

I see quite a bit has happened to start off this cycle. Three expulsions (including my top suspicion), two deaths (and the first Skindancer confirmation), and one defended attack. Although I seem to be a bit late for an immediate reaction... :P 

4 People, 40 DP 0DP 1DP 2DP 3DP 4DP 5DP 6DP 7DP 8DP 9DP 10DP 11DP
No effect 41.23 33.12 25.31 18.54 13.10 8.93 5.87 3.68 2.17 1.18 0.57 0.24
1-turn Roleblock 21.17 20.74 19.16 16.71 13.73 10.58 7.57 4.97 2.95 1.56 0.72 0.29
3-turn Roleblock 26.16 30.30 32.86 33.45 32.07 29.09 25.07 20.58 16.06 11.84 8.13 5.11
Expulsion 9.85 15.37 22.57 31.29 41.10 51.39 61.49 70.77 78.81 85.43 90.58 94.37
4 People, 45 DP 0DP 1DP 2DP 3DP 4DP 5DP 6DP 7DP 8DP 9DP 10DP 11DP
No effect 31.38 24.04 17.67 12.51 8.54 5.62 3.53 2.10 1.15 0.58 0.26 0.10
1-turn Roleblock 19.96 18.28 15.82 12.93 9.92 7.10 4.69 2.83 1.53 0.74 0.31 0.11
3-turn Roleblock 30.29 32.27 32.43 30.81 27.78 23.84 19.49 15.15 11.13 7.64 4.84 2.78
Expulsion 17.77 25.25 34.05 43.75 53.75 63.44 72.29 79.93 86.18 91.04 94.59 97.01

To start off with, another DP/punishments probability chart, this one for 45 random DP and 4 people (what last cycle wound up being.) Walin's removal actually made a pretty significant difference in the outcome- about a 9-10% increase in likelihood for each individual. Of course, the expulsions aren't independent, so the likelihood of all three getting removed was quite slim.

4 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Apperantly I didnt vote last turn? Idk if I even remember last turn at all. I think I'm getting the QF and LG confused with each other at this point... I'll try to get my head straight once school is done.

CadCom, Stink and Rath all got unlucky. That sucks.

Zillah died to the streets, and Walin died to an assassin, meaning that Xino must have been the skin dancer attack. I thought Xino was village before, but @xinoehp512 any idea why you survived?

Yes I do, in fact. I was protected by a Bloodless item.

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

P and apology for being inactive. RP included that he was studying linguistics. (Does anyone know what fields he was elevated in?)

Yes, I do, in fact. Walin was the Master Alchemist. I don't think he was elevated in any other field, but I'm second-guessing all my readings of the rules after what happened with Fae Lore. :P I have received confirmation that he was, indeed, only elevated in Alchemy. Since he was, that means that only a maximum of three additional elevations could have happened (including one on this turn, possibly). Since Plum Bob is a Re'lar and up item, both of those elevations would have had to happen to the same person, and that person would have had to craft a Plum Bob last turn in order for there to be one in use this turn. @Elkanah, you're the one with the elevations chart- any idea about that?

16 minutes ago, Straw said:

I don't see any such thing in the rules or clarifications.

BTW @xinoehp512, any more lie detection results you'd care to share with the thread?

No, unfortunately. I was going to do one on Walin, but he weaseled out of it with a tricky answer. Bard was kind of a lucky find- I think the elims are being more careful now. I scanned his elevations instead, so that if his field got destroyed I could ID him as the culprit.

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8. Lord_Silberfarben - (Commoner) - New player. Mostly RP. Only posted at the start of 4.1 to congratulate Walin. Expressed suspicion of Fura in 3.2 but didn't do anything about it then. They've been raised three times, so it's not like they're a village vanilla and disengaged from the game because they've got nothing to do... They've been more active elsewhere, so the lack of activity here could suggest what activity is in an elim doc. I'm undecided, so I'll just mark them as neutral.

 

I dont have much time to post or analyse, and most of that is spent on the QF

it is easier to follow.

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