914 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

47 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Unless I'm missing something, your EP calculations aren't necessarily...necessary...  My second elevation was in a field I only had one EP in.  So, you could potentially just get the 15 EP in a field you aren't actually elevated in...  I'm a bit tired to figure out the math for it...but it seems like it definitely could be possible.

While they arent necessary, it did bother me as it originally seemed impossible. But it did do one thing, it distracted us from looking for elims. 

I've been thinking more about the votes being placed, and while on the one hand, voting for El'the seems like a good idea overall, on the other, elevations happen before the Horns, so it does become possible that complaints are filed and then the player becomes elevated, then votes on them are dissolved. Maybe voting for Re'Lars isnt a terrible choice either. Doing quick estimated math, I wouldn't be surprised to get 3 or 4 more masters this turn.

@Elbereth @little wilson do DPs from masters show up at the same time as Complaint votes from the lynch? And does elevation to master happen at the same time as other elevations?

Other things:

1. Maybe this will make me more sus to all of you, but I think it needs to he said. You are still all assuming Bard is elim, when we still have no proof of that. You're voting on me or making me a suspect because I didnt vote on Bard. Well guess what? It's entirely possible still that Bard is village. In fact from their few posts after expulsion, I personally had a more village lean on them. 

2. I've decided now that I have at least one elevation, its better than nothing. If worse comes to worse, I suppose expulsion wouldn't be the worst option available. 

3. With that, the matter of my own vote comes into play. I think I will leave my vote amont those with existing complaints this time, despite being to my own detriment by not opening new votes. But for anyone out there I would also be interested on voting for Haelbarde or devotary, so if any of you can muster up a reason to vote on either of them, that would be good, and I would probably join you in that lynch. For now I'll put my votes on zillah, zillah because of the mysteriousness enshrouding them as well as the fact that they're not E'lir, like the other two. Though I am afraid till go to waste and they might be elevated. 

Also if @Zillah wants to chime in and say anything, my vote being moved isnt totally out of the picture. 

Edit:just realized that I'm voting alongside Hael despite finding them more suspicious than others. I think I'll take a second look at Hael. 

Edited by CadCom
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Without doing any further analysis into stats, I’m going to guess we’ll have another master in 2 or 3 terms, and in 4 to 5 terms we’ll have masters in half of the fields. I’m okay with trying to expel, or at least complain, against some el’the on the off-chance that the elims can gain a majority of the fields in just a few terms.

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12 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

You know, that makes me wonder... you can't be elevated, but you can file RP- can you become a Master if you're under the effects of lashings? @Elbereth @little wilson

And it is announced what field was destroyed, correct?

You cannot become a Master if you're under the effects of the lashings. If you were to hit 15 while under the effects of lashings, your elevation to Master would wait until after, assuming someone else did not hit 15 before the effects wore off.

What field is destroyed is announced, yes. After all, people need to know where it's pointless to file EP.

6 minutes ago, CadCom said:

@Elbereth @little wilson do DPs from masters show up at the same time as Complaint votes from the lynch? And does elevation to master happen at the same time as other elevations?

DP is separate from the complaint votes. A PC Master can vote / file complaints and DP. They can also file DP against people who did not have any complaints filed against them. Elevations to master happen at the same time as other elevations, though a master elevation does not prevent another person from being elevated in that field.

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These turns always seem to pass so swiftly.

Looking back at the votes moving around in the last two hours of last cycle, it looks like:

  • Karnage jumped on the leading vote with little reasoning
  • Fura puts CadCom up for lynch, wanting to give Elendera a chance to respond to his comments
  • Devotary agrees with Fura, supports the CadCom lynch
  • Xino changes between CadCom and Stink, finishing with CadCom to reduce the spread of votes
  • CadCom votes on Fura and Xino to spread the votes out to try and avoid expulsion 
  • Rover jumps on one of the leading votes.
  • Elkanah adds a last minute vote on Devotary

So it was mostly a matter of a lot of people leaving it very late to post complaints, combined with some votes moving around as CadCom tried to spread votes out again. I don't really have the energy presently to analyse it for alignment indictative information. 

Again, I need to sleep now, but I'll try and get up before the end of cycle in case everyone decides to vote last minute again. For the moment, I'll just stick my second complaint on Zillah.

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Here is math:

  Field 1 Field 2 Field 3 Field 4 Field 5 Field 6 Field 7 Field 8 Field 9  
                     
2.1                    
  Haelbard Burnt DeTess Xino Lord Shard Walin Bard Lopen  
2.2                    
  Stink Burnt 2 DeTess 2 Straw Lord 2 Shard 2 Walin 2 Bard 2   Elkanah
3.1                    
  Rover Zillah Araris Xino 2 Coda Shard 3 Rath Bard 3 Kynedath  
3.2                    
  Haelbard 2 Zillah 2 Araris 2 Xino 3 Coda 2 Karnage Walin 3   Lopen 2 Elkanah 2
4.1                    
  Fura Zillah 3 CadCom Straw 2 Lord 3 Karnage 2 Rath 2 Devotary   Elkanah 3
4.2                    

This analysis is inherently flawed as to make it work I had to assume everyone could only be elevated in a field they already were in. If we assume I was only elevated in one field, it is impossible to fit the puzzle together as I overlap imperfectly with anyone who was elevated in term two month one. I was surprised to see how many others overlapped perfectly, though. Zillah, Araris and Coda all overlapped really well with either Burnt or DeTess. Four of those five are probably in the same two fields. Fura, CadCom and Devotary are probably not in the same fields as Zillah or Karnage. Aaaaand Catching up on the thread I see I have slipped back into the Free For All version of the game. I was all ready to go back and take the context clues so I could nail down what fields people were actually in. But that does not solve the game. Back to finding the eliminators. Oh and Orange means they are an E'lir so they fit pretty much anywhere.

I will vote for Zillah Zillah for being the El'The with the least information. I will go back and do player analysis later to start having more informed accusations than "they will soon be unkillable" but for now that is the best reason I have to vote.

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Posted (edited)

6 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Here is math

I hope you dont mind but I'm gonna try to steal this. It looks better than the sheet I had, though mine does specifically state one or two fields that I've gathered information on. 

Also if you would like, you could include what Rath said, meaning that thei likely have elevations in at least 2 fields. 

Edit:also why are you separate from all 9 fields?

Edited by CadCom
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Question, @little wilson @Elberethis there an inactivity death? And do they have to post in thread? If not, I think I will place my votes on Zillah. If so, I'll probably change it to someone who won't just die from inactivity. Zillah's last post was RP during turn 3.1. They also had RP in turn 2.2, and their only other post that turn was asking about green profile pictures. During turn 2.1 Zillah made their last game related comment, where they just placed votes on Burnt and Lord Silberfarben. During 1.2, they had a total of 3 RP posts, and nothing else. 1.1, 2 RP and one post with a question about tuition reducitons. Ok finally. Something to look at They have a post in 1.1 saying we shouldn't just not put votes on Edema Ruh because there might be skindancer(s) among them. And that's all. A total of 7 RP posts, one vote post, and one NAI game related post. So, ya, Zillah

On some other people, Cadcom has a slight village feel to me, as does Xino. I will have to go back and do some more analysis later and figure out who else seems suspicious to me. 

Well. That's 200 words, and I got to go for now. 

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Straw's Guide to Imre (Part Two):

The Loaded Dice: Just the name of this place made it sound suspicious, but it apparently had decently good odds. However, some bets were far better odds than others, which made it a good source of money for people who were good at math and stuff. However, the Arithmetics department didn't officially teach gambling or anything. They preferred to call it "statistics" and stuff like that instead. However, it had the same results, so the name didn’t really matter. Straw had also heard that some of the Edema Ruh and commoners could cheat there and get a lot of money, but those were probably just rumors. Everyone liked to insult the Ruh, after all.

Nox’s Apothecary: This apothecary sold goods and services, such as courier messages or protective items. Many of them were things that were slightly suspicious, such as Nahlrout, which could be used to drug someone to stop them from doing things. However, both the Bloodless and the Gram sounded like powerful protective items and could be very useful against Skindancers. There was also the courier service, but that sounded like a massive rip off. Two talents for a single anonymous message!? Straw didn’t think that anyone would really be willing to pay for that.

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10 minutes ago, CadCom said:

I hope you dont mind but I'm gonna try to steal this. It looks better than the sheet I had, though mine does specifically state one or two fields that I've gathered information on. 

Also if you would like, you could include what Rath said, meaning that thei likely have elevations in at least 2 fields. 

Edit:also why are you separate from all 9 fields?

I do not mind at all. I am glad you found it pleasing. :D I was disappointed all the colors did not copy over. My spreadsheet is a veritable rainbow as everyone has a color assigned to them to make matching who could have been elevated in the same field easier to see at a glance. I too have some more information that I did not share about people's specific fields, but that is because I do not think they would be okay with that information coming to light. 

Rath is one of those that should probably be orange in the graph above given he has two level one elevations, but if I make the same assumption for him that I have for everyone else, he fits so well with either Haelbard or Walin. So yeah, that is willfully incorrect. I will have to look back, but I think it was Burnt Spaghetti who also has said she has elevations in different fields between 2.1 and 2.2. 

I am separate for the same reason that Rathmaskal is not. If you assume that I could only go into one field, it is impossible for me to be a part of the puzzle. If you make the assumption for everyone except for me (which I think is your recommendation here) I could have my first elevation in the same field as Haelbard, Xino or Lopen. My second could be in the same field as Straw, Lord, Shard or Bard. My third could be in the same field as Haelbard, Xino, Araris, Shard, Walin or Bard. Hmm more interesting things. 

From this it looks like I am probably in the same fields as Haelbard and Xino and Bard, except that given my assumption that everyone else has to stay in the same field, Straw has to be paired with Xino or Haelbard at both of the times I have coincidence with them. So in order for the program to not break I can only be in the same field as either Hael or Xino.

Drat. Bad dobby! I will do real analysis. @little wilson, why did you have to make the less important part of the game so fun to analize?<_<:P

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3 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I will have to look back, but I think it was Burnt Spaghetti who also has said she has elevations in different fields between 2.1 and 2.2. 

Can confirm :P 

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Rathmaskal is the only player who has made less than one post on average every turn. @Rathmaskal any thoughts to add to the game?

Rathmaskal Rathmaskal.

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Updated vote count (Not official)

Zillah(8): Haelbarde, CadCom, CadCom, Haelbarde, Elkanah, Elkanah, Experience, Experience.
Stink(2): Xino, Xino
Cadcom(2): Lopen, Lopen

I'm going to leave my vote on Zillah for now, but I also want to express how I hate that we seem to be doing this thing where we want to have people get expelled, so we just jump on the first available lynch just because it's someone we are mildly suspicious of or know very little about. I'd much rather have some other discussion about other possible elims.

Along the same lines, the idea that we just assume everyone we've expelled is elim is also very dangerous. It's exactly what we've done with Bard, and I don't like it. I've also decided within the last few minutes that it makes me suspicious of Lopen.

Ninja'd by Burnt and Straw. Thank you Straw for suggesting another new candidate, and not just voting for Zillah just for the purposes of expelling anyone. 

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Posted (edited)

“Maern,” called the Master Rhetorician as the rest of the Masters and Ferwish (giving Maern the evil eye) filed out of the room. “I’d like to have a word with you, if you wouldn’t mind.” 

This feels familiar, thought Maern as he stood up from his seat. I wonder what it is this time?

“I don’t mind,” said Maern, “although I do have to be getting home soon. I don’t want to miss dinner.”

“I wouldn’t want that either,” said the Master with a smile, rising with him. “Besides, wandering around on the streets this late… it’s not safe. Thieves, mercenaries, murderers…” he leaned in. “Skindancers…”

“Yes,” said Maern, wondering what the Master was getting at. “I concur. Skindancers are dangerous.”

The Master sighed. “I’ll cut right to the chase,” he said. “Have you been trying to find the skindancers on your own?”

Maern hesitated. “Yes?” he said, cautious.

“Despite having no training whatsoever?”

“I checked a book out from the Archives…”

The Master raised an eyebrow. “And you think that will be enough?”

“Yes- I mean, maybe- I don’t know! But I have to do something. We can’t just let these… these demons take over the University!”

“That’s what the investigators are for, yes?”

----

3 hours ago, STINK said:

Hey wassup I'm back into play and @Straw, I will try my best to muster some sort of RP we can collaborate on but first I gotta just say this one thing cause honestly it's kind of been 'irking' me (is irking even a word? it's not being spell-corrected so it should be right?)

It wasn't even a defence of Bard, which is why I've just been kinda ignoring your votes. It's an analysis stemming from a hyper-focus (presumably 'cause of the hype of LA hitting a lie) and this 'defence' of Bard was just me seeing a 'lil neat logic puzzle kind of thing and writing it out 'cause there were so many posts throwing around different things and if I remember correctly no-one even picked up on the R&L claim. So yeah, not gonna bother defending myself from 'Stink defended Bard' when from my PoV he was just kinda there while I did my own thing. 

(Sorry Bard if you take that personally uhh you're a great guy)

Also wow if I get hit with the thing where there's no votes so you get a bunch of DP like I think it was LG18 euuugh anyway time to drink water and do some workouts see all you beautiful people later

It wasn't a defense per se, true; however, it was an effort to sway people towards believing the scan had been misinterpreted. While there may be a perspective where the R&L claim could trigger a lie, I find it much less likely that there would be a perspective from which it was the most likely interpretation, and more likely that you were an elim trying to rescue a teammate.

@STINK

Zillah(8): Haelbarde, Haelbarde, CadCom, CadCom, Elkanah, Elkanah, Experience, Experience
Stink(2): Xino, Xino
Cadcom(2): Lopen, Lopen

There seems to be a clear majority on Zillah, with 4 DP total on her currently. A quick run through my DP calculator shows that with 40 DP, each person up for vote has a 35.14 percent chance of being expelled, a 31.9 percent chance of being roleblocked for three turns, a 15.4 percent chance of being roleblocked for one turn, and a 17.4 chance of being brought On the Horns with no effect. With the 4 extra DP factored in, Zillah has a 72.7 percent chance of getting expelled, a 19.1 percent chance of getting roleblocked for three turns, a 4.6 percent chance of getting roleblocked for one turn, and a 3.6 percent chance of being brought On the Horns with no effect.

7 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Huh. I think I was pretty tired when I looked through your posts, because I think I missed a few of them. I'll upgrade you to moderately active on account of last cycle :P 

I look forward to hearing what you have to say.

Huh. Thanks for doing that. Looks like you've recorded two things wrong though: With your calculation, 7 EP at the start of 2.2, plus 4, gives 11 EP at the start of 3.1. And then the elevation to El'the for the start of 3.2 would have given the +5 immedately, to leave him with 15 EP at the start of that cycle, leaving us at 18 for the elevations at the end of 3.2, which was more than enough for elevation at 4.1. 

You are correct. :P Actually, that leaves him just enough to elevate to Master at the beginning of 3.2- but, of course he spent 1 on Naming.

2 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Unless I'm missing something, your EP calculations aren't necessarily...necessary...  My second elevation was in a field I only had one EP in.  So, you could potentially just get the 15 EP in a field you aren't actually elevated in...  I'm a bit tired to figure out the math for it...but it seems like it definitely could be possible.

Of course. The calculations were merely to assert that it was possible for him to get there investing in only one field.

 

 

Edited by xinoehp512
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7 minutes ago, CadCom said:

I'm going to leave my vote on Zillah for now, but I also want to express how I hate that we seem to be doing this thing where we want to have people get expelled, so we just jump on the first available lynch just because it's someone we are mildly suspicious of or know very little about. I'd much rather have some other discussion about other possible elims.

Along the same lines, the idea that we just assume everyone we've expelled is elim is also very dangerous. It's exactly what we've done with Bard, and I don't like it. I've also decided within the last few minutes that it makes me suspicious of Lopen.

Ninja'd by Burnt and Straw. Thank you Straw for suggesting another new candidate, and not just voting for Zillah just for the purposes of expelling anyone. 

That is a fair point. For all the discussion this game we have shockingly little that is an indicator. The problem I have at present is my reasoning for Voting on Zillah is equally useful against Experience, Silberfarben and myself. I am leaving Xino out because we have generally agreed he is village... Which bears looking into. Of the four, Zillah has the least information, so I am fairly certain I would be voting on her this cycle regardless. Adding that the lynch might actually produce some results does not make me want to change my vote. What would be much better is if we could get the other fifteen of us to vote.

I guess to that end ZIllah Zillah Coda Coda. Where did you go? You were doing so well a couple Cycles ago. Then I and everyone else went inactive. Please come back.:rolleyes:

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@Elkanah, coda went insane this turn. 

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Just now, Experience said:

@Elkanah, coda went insane this turn. 

Well that certainly explains that... Coda Coda. I guess I'm back to Zillah Zillah for now. I think everyone else has posted except @Kynedath. I wish I had more to contribute here, but I don't so I'll stop talking.

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1 hour ago, Experience said:

Question, @little wilson @Elberethis there an inactivity death? And do they have to post in thread?

The Streets is meant to be the inactivity death. They do not have to post in the thread.

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38 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

It wasn't a defense per se, true; however, it was an effort to sway people towards believing the scan had been misinterpreted. While there may be a perspective where the R&L claim could trigger a lie, I find it much less likely that there would be a perspective from which it was the most likely interpretation, and more likely that you were an elim trying to rescue a teammate.

@STINK

Cool, also you don't have to mention someone when you quote them, Shard already sends a notification through that there has been a quote :P

38 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

A quick run through my DP calculator

Uhhh, did you make that or am I missing something in my spreadsheet? 'Cause if its the first one then kudos tbh

 

52 minutes ago, Straw said:

Rathmaskal is the only player who has made less than one post on average every turn. @Rathmaskal any thoughts to add to the game?

Rathmaskal Rathmaskal.

Poke-voting on term 4? My kinda guy right here, eh Rath?

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1 hour ago, Experience said:

If not, I think I will place my votes on Zillah. If so, I'll probably change it to someone who won't just die from inactivity. Zillah's last post was RP during turn 3.1. They also had RP in turn 2.2, and their only other post that turn was asking about green profile pictures. During turn 2.1 Zillah made their last game related comment, where they just placed votes on Burnt and Lord Silberfarben. During 1.2, they had a total of 3 RP posts, and nothing else. 1.1, 2 RP and one post with a question about tuition reducitons. Ok finally. Something to look at They have a post in 1.1 saying we shouldn't just not put votes on Edema Ruh because there might be skindancer(s) among them. And that's all. A total of 7 RP posts, one vote post, and one NAI game related post. So, ya, Zillah

I would say that this makes sense, I get on the Zillah Zillah train for not. As for other people I am suspicious of, I don't feel as if I have any indicators as to who is who, I feel completely in the dark, so until I see something that I find suspicious I am going to just keep watching a bit more.

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While we told y'all the cost of your tuition last turn, we didn't actually... subtract it from your totals? :P I'll send you your actual current money shortly. Oops. 

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Posted (edited)

Vote Count: 

Zillah (10) Haelbarde, Haelbarde, CadCom, CadCom, Elkanah, Elkanah, Experience, Experience, Karnage, Karnage

Stink (2) Xino, Xino

Cadcom (2) Lopen, Lopen

Rath (3) Straw, Straw, Stink

Right now, the majority is obviously on Zillah, but also spread out among a few others. I'm too busy to do the math now, so I'm not really sure exactly how likely they are to be expelled. Also, walin is able to place 4 DP on anyone, so if placed on a player will boost their chance of expulsion quite a bit. Also, those who haven't voted, it would be nice if you did sooner rather then later so we don't have the same last minute(or hour?) voting as last turn. 

Lopen's votes on CadCom are a little unusual to me. If they are already going to be roleblocked for the next three rounds, what is the point of putting votes on them now? Yes, he didn't vote on Bard, but there were others that didn't so not sure why that makes him stand out. And why would his self-preservation vote make him more suspicious. I think that if it was just a vote on Xino it would look more suspicious, but for self-preservation it makes sense at least to me. @TheMightyLopen, thoughts? I'm also leaning village for CadCom, so that might somewhat influence me thinking this more unusual then it actually is. 

~~

During the first couple of terms, Shard had been able to please the masters pretty easily, but now it seemed harder and harder to get their attention. It seemed that the masters were starting to look to others, which didn't bode well for Shard if he wanted to become one himself which he did. There had been another commoner who had already become a master, and Shard felt a little jealous. There had also started to be some expulsions, and Shard honestly didn't know what to think about it. And lots of people going insane. Shard was grateful he had chosen to study in an art that wouldn't cause him to go insane as well. There were rumors of skindancers, but they couldn't possibly be real so Shard just ignored them. 

The season had bled from snow to sun, and things had started to warm up. The snow now melted, Shard was no longer able to have snowball fights with the other students he had met. This meant that Shard didn't see them as much. One day Shard was reading a textbook, back against a tree, studying for a class when someone walked up to him. He was so engrossed in what he was reading that he didn't notice them until they cleared their throat. Seeing that there was someone there, Shard quickly got up and asked "Is there something I can help you with?"

~~

If anyone wants to do RP with me please do, because I could really use the tuition reduction. 

EDIT: @Furamirionind @Kynedath @Burnt Spaghetti @Lord_Silberfarben @Zillah @Rathmaskal @Elandera @Walin @Young Bard @Devotary of Spontaneity @Araris Valerian @GreenRover 

These are all those who haven't voted and aren't insane. Hopefully I didn't miss anyone. 

Edited by Experience
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Updated vote count (Not official)

Zillah(10): Haelbarde, CadCom, CadCom, Haelbarde, Elkanah, Elkanah, Experience, Experience, Karnage, Karnage
Rathmaskal(3) Straw, Straw, Stink
Stink(2): Xino, Xino
Cadcom(2): Lopen, Lopen

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2 hours ago, Straw said:

Rathmaskal is the only player who has made less than one post on average every turn. @Rathmaskal any thoughts to add to the game?

Rathmaskal Rathmaskal.

I've been pretty clear most of the game that I've been struggling to fully keep up with everything.  I'm trying to grab bits and pieces of useful information as I go along.

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Poke-voting on term 4? My kinda guy right here, eh Rath?

That was almost my first thought...poke voting term 4 seems...unproductive?  If it's just to get better tuition, fine by me...but I'm not sure what you're hoping to gain.  I guess I responded, so there's that.

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3 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

That was almost my first thought...poke voting term 4 seems...unproductive?  If it's just to get better tuition, fine by me...but I'm not sure what you're hoping to gain.  I guess I responded, so there's that.

Glad to see you agree with me about Straw

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7 minutes ago, STINK said:

Glad to see you agree with me about Straw

I'm not really poke-voting him, I'm voting on him for flying under the radar. So far this game, the only actual read they've said was that they found one of Coda's posts to be suspicious. I'd like to see some actual content from him.

What's your reasoning for voting on me?

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