Long Game 65: Dancing through Life

[Furamirionind]

9 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

This to me does not feel anything like a statement that would trigger Linguistic Analysis. It's an offhand comment, first of all- only really there for flavor. In addition, anyone might take a R&L exam, whether or not the player RP'ing them put any EP into the subject- EP is meant to represent extra effort put into a specific subject. We have creative freedom over our RP characters- the GM can't say that anything that we declare about our characters is false unless we're also saying it as a fact about ourselves. I have trouble imagining anyone reading this and thinking that there was any chance this would get counted as a lie, let alone a 50:50 like Haelbarde seems to suggest.

(Sorry if this sounds overly harsh- as an RP'er on SE, I have opinions on how much creative freedom should be allowed/expected.)

I'm a bit busy right now, but your vote sounds like it's based on something you can check with the GMs first...

Quote

It was a week later, as she was exiting the exam hall after a truly awful midterm exam in Rhetoric & Logic, when she heard a couple of the other University students gossiping. Vol's name came up, and, without really meaning to, Nethwyl drifted closer to listen in on the conversation.

@little wilson @Elbereth If I was/am not going into the field of Rhetoric & Logic, would this count as a lie? Idk if this will be a PAFO or not, but RP is a fine line... And I could totally see it being close enough to be a lie. I don't blame STINk for bringing it up.

Edit:

Kynedath(6): Lopen{2}, Lopen{3}, Hael{1}, Hael{2}, Karnage{1}, Karnage{2}
CadCom(4): Fura{3}, Fura{4}, Devotary{1}, Devotary{2}
Fura(2): Lopen{1}, Straw{1}, Straw{2}
Devotary(2): Araris{1}, Araris{2} 
STINK(2): Xino{1}, Xino{2}

Mostly I'm just getting a bit nervous Xino just added a 5th person who is going to get expelled this turn. Lol. I am confident we aren't all skindancers... And this is just a lot of people to expel at once.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Furamirionind

[xinoehp512]

Maern sat in a chair in the middle of the circle of Masters as the investigator’s captain outlined his complaints against him. “...inferfering with our duty! Plus I think it’s highly likely that…”

Maern eyes flitted from Master to Master as he discreetly watched their expressions. One had an interested expression, which was worrying. Others had thoughtful expressions- Maern wasn’t sure how to feel about that. A few were openly disgusted. Those were likely the ones that had gotten him booted from the University, and they probably weren’t too happy to see him back. Maern felt more confident seeing that.

But the majority of the Master’s faces were unreadable, and Maern could only feel unsettled at that. He didn’t like not knowing what his fate was going to be. He shifted in his chair nervously as the captain continued his tirade against him.

Eventually he finished his remarks, and the Masters called on him to speak. He took a deep breath and told them everything that had happened as truthfully as possible, only passing lightly over the fact that he’d gone in search of Nethwyl because he suspected that she could help him catch the skindancers. No need to elaborate on his vigilantism- he wasn’t sure how they’d react to that.

Eventually he finished his comments and waited anxiously for the Masters to give their verdict.

––-

It looks like I've been ninja'd with votes with one of my suspicions. To that end, Stink Stink CadCom CadCom

[Straw]

Sorry, I forgot to take my votes off Furamirionind Furamirionind. I don't want to add another person to the vote count, and Kynedath seems like a reasonable lynch.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Straw

[STINK]

3 minutes ago, Straw said:

Sorry, I forgot to take my votes off Furamirionind color=green]Furamirionind[/color]. I don't want to add another person to the vote count, and Kynedath seems like a reasonable lynch.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Straw]

6 minutes ago, STINK said:

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

If this is referring to my second retraction being messed up, I fixed that. If not, please explain what you are hmmmmming about.

[STINK]

It was that yeah

[xinoehp512]

15 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

It looks like I've been ninja'd with votes with one of my suspicions. To that end, Stink Stink CadCom CadCom

Dang it, I thought about this for half a minute and now I'm not so sure... I do want Stink to be expelled, and there's a decent chance that if I put my votes on him, then he will be. At the same time, I want CadCom to be expelled as well- and taking my votes off of him makes it less likely that he will be expelled. But Stink has no chance of being expelled if I don't vote for him, while CadCom has a decent chance even without my votes. I fear I fell victim to patterns of thought usual to average SE games, where cementing a majority is essential for a lynch to go through. Here the lynch is more probability based, and the number of votes on people matters far less. Since so few people voted this cycle, it's unlikely that DP from the votes themselves are going to pay as much of an influence on the outcome...

Ahh storm it. Straw took his votes off Fura, so now there's only three people with votes... four should be sufficient for likely double expulsion, right? Besides, the chance that I'm removing from Cadcom is less than the chance I'm adding for Stink, I feel. CadCom CadCom Stink Stink 

[CadCom]

Sorry guys, for coming on late, I only really have time to respond to one or two quick things.

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

CadCom actually put his vote on Bard before I posted my thing, which would be a point in his favor... except that he immediately retracted it when he realized that Bard had gone up for the lynch. Even after he reads about expulsion and changes his mind about what fate he thinks Bard deserves, he's still unwilling to vote on him. Overall, he may be the most suspicious person I've analyzed so far.

(Gah, I have to go now. Luckily, I'm over two hundred words. Vote next time, I promise!)

I don't see the point in voting on someone who was virtually already going to be expelled. My vote would have (and did have) virtually no effect on his final state. 

At this point, I would vote on two other people with no votes currently, but that would only further your suspicion, or I would vote twice on Kynedath to protect myself, however, this isn't a winner takes all lynch, its a point system lynch, 

The amount of effort and things needed to reveal a player's alignment makes this game very difficult, and it is unlikely that we will see very many elims confirmed, because the easiest way to see this occur is by death, which is mostly just an elim ability after someone has been expelled or gone insane. 

I'll just move more people toward a point where actions cannot be taken/expulsion Fura, Kynedath

[Straw]

Straw eventually walked away from Bryn and Seoras. He didn't know that much about alchemy, so he wouldn't be able to help them get the ink out of Bryn's hair. He went to class and wandered around the courtyard for a while. There was a lot of wind, and it was very cold. Not exactly nice weather for walking around outside. Straw decided to go and check out the Archives instead. Maybe they'd have something interesting to do there.

It turned out that nothing much was going on in the Archives in at the moment. No one was going insane or getting expelled or doing anything else that could be considered exciting or interesting.

Eventually, Straw decided to go off and find Ugfal the Three Handed. While he was a bit of a strange fellow, he probably knew how to have fun, and they could maybe go out for drinks together. Maybe Ugfal would also have some thoughts about the current situation of the University, what with everyone going insane and being expelled and stuff. Maybe Straw would even get to see Ugfal's famous (or maybe infamous) third hand. He had heard many great and terrible tales about that amazing hand.

( @STINK )

[CadCom]

Oh wait, Fura's vote has just been removed, and I guess I missed it. I don't personally like being expelled though, I'm considering adding an additional set of votes anyways. As it stands, if I remove my vote on Fura, and consider the average amount of votes available from the Masters, I'll have a 65% chance of expulsion, which is rather high, whereas with my vote on fura still standing, it lowers my chances to 30%

If I remove my vote from Kynedath, and add a single other person, assuming I get the average number of votes among 6 people, I'll only have a 10% chance of expulsion. 

Hmm. On second thought, because my ability to stay in the university somewhat depends on it, I'll remove my vote from Kynedath, and instead I'll vote for Xinoehp. To be completely honest I might move it to Devotary, I just feel like one of the people who voted on me is likely elim. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Kynedath(6): Lopen{2}, Lopen{3}, Hael{1}, Hael{2}, Karnage{1}, Karnage{2}, Straw{1}
CadCom(4): Fura{3}, Fura{4}, Devotary{1}, Devotary{2}
Devotary(2): Araris{1}, Araris{2} 
STINK(2): Xino{1}, Xino{2}
Fura(1): CadCom{1}
Xinoehp(1): CadCom{2}

25 minutes ago, CadCom said:

I don't see the point in voting on someone who was virtually already going to be expelled. My vote would have (and did have) virtually no effect on his final state. 

There was only a ~40% chance that Bard would be expelled last turn, not counting the possibility for EP to reduce DP, the possibility for Bard to be at the Golden Pony, and the chance for others to be at the Golden Pony. The actual probability is incalculable, but probably lower than 40 as Burnt and Xino were the only ones who could have altered Bard's fortunes by staying at the Golden Pony and Bard probably had a couple spare EP lying around in various fields even after three elevations. 

Six people up for the lynch makes it unlikely anyone will be expelled. @xinoehp512 could fix this, at the cost of letting Stink go free.

[xinoehp512]

29 minutes ago, CadCom said:

Sorry guys, for coming on late, I only really have time to respond to one or two quick things.

I don't see the point in voting on someone who was virtually already going to be expelled. My vote would have (and did have) virtually no effect on his final state. 

At this point, I would vote on two other people with no votes currently, but that would only further your suspicion, or I would vote twice on Kynedath to protect myself, however, this isn't a winner takes all lynch, its a point system lynch, 

The amount of effort and things needed to reveal a player's alignment makes this game very difficult, and it is unlikely that we will see very many elims confirmed, because the easiest way to see this occur is by death, which is mostly just an elim ability after someone has been expelled or gone insane. 

I'll just move more people toward a point where actions cannot be taken/expulsion Fura, Kynedath

There was still a decent chance that Bard would avoid expulsion. Expulsion's not even a possibility until you get 11 DP on someone, and all the votes on him only added up to 7. There were 8 people up for the lynch; an average of about 5 DP per person. 12 DP is still only a 10% chance of expulsion. One more DP pushes that up to the next level, which jumps the probability to 30%.

That's not even considering the fact that you took your vote off of Bard once you saw a lynch train form, which - even if you were unclear on what expulsion would mean - is still pretty suspicious.

@CadCom

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Kynedath(6): Lopen{2}, Lopen{3}, Hael{1}, Hael{2}, Karnage{1}, Karnage{2}, Straw{1}
CadCom(4): Fura{3}, Fura{4}, Devotary{1}, Devotary{2}
Devotary(2): Araris{1}, Araris{2} 
STINK(2): Xino{1}, Xino{2}
Fura(1): CadCom{1}
Xinoehp(1): CadCom{2}

There was only a ~40% chance that Bard would be expelled last turn, not counting the possibility for EP to reduce DP, the possibility for Bard to be at the Golden Pony, and the chance for others to be at the Golden Pony. The actual probability is incalculable, but probably lower than 40 as Burnt and Xino were the only ones who could have altered Bard's fortunes by staying at the Golden Pony and Bard probably had a couple spare EP lying around in various fields even after three elevations. 

Six people up for the lynch makes it unlikely anyone will be expelled. @xinoehp512 could fix this, at the cost of letting Stink go free.

Man, I don't want to... but I kind of have to, don't I?

Oh well. I can still talk if I'm expelled, even if I can't lodge complaints. Getting an expulsion is more important. Stink Stink CadCom CadCom.

 

[GreenRover]

Or I could fix it. Kynedath Kynedath

[Straw]

While I'm waiting to see if STINK responds, here's Straw's guide to Imre (Part One): (BTW @Elbereth and @little wilson all these last minute RP posts I've been making remind me of writing essays at the last minute so props for nailing that authentic school vibe)

The Eolian: Straw thought that this place sounded rather nice, even if he had never really bothered to go. It supposedly had the best singers and musicians in Imre, and it was where you could go to win your Talent Pipes. Straw could kind of sing, but not enough for a decent shot at the Talent Pipes. They were usually only given to really good musicians, which didn't really describe Straw. That was probably a good thing, since you have to have a bar somewhere, otherwise the Pipes wouldn't really mean anything.

Devi's: This place was supposedly run by a woman known as "Demon Devi", which didn't bode well for anyone trying to get a loan. It also had insanely high interest rates, and if you were taking out a loan from it you were practically consigning yourself to permanent debt. Only the most desperate people would go to Devi's if they wanted a loan, and they would probably ruin themselves as a consequence. Straw had heard that some people who were good with money, such as the Cealdish or Arithmeticians could get better interest rates, but that might have just been a rumor. Devi didn't seem like the type to lower interest in any circumstance.

[Elkanah]

Gaahh I did not leave enough time to give you the post you deserve. I guess I'll vote for Devotary. Sorry, it looks from my quick skim like it does not give you an extra DP, and you are likely expelled anyway. I do not think I make it back to the University next month anyway, but I will try to pad this out to increase my chances.

I do not think we need to bother with killing Bard. An expelled skindancer is a neutered skindancer. He can not target any other player at the moment and I am content to try to find and expel other suspicious players. If you have the money for an assassin at this point I recommend a body guard instead, but you do you. 

It is interesting to me that we are expelling two or three Edema Ruh this turn. While I do not doubt there are skindancers among the Edema Ruh, it seems like an interesting coincidence to expel half of us in one go. They are also unleveled except for Kynedath who is an E'lir.

[Walin]

Hmmmmm it appears I have went under the radar once again with my procrastinatory habits. I don't have anything useful to say this time, either; neither have I taken any notes on the cycle so far. I'll, uh, do that. In a bit. During rollover, probably.

Uh, let's see where the lynch goes. I have no read on Kynedath, for all that matter.

[Furamirionind]

What the heck are you all doing??? I leave to focus on the QF for a second and everything goes crazy? Lol

[CadCom]

2 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

There was still a decent chance that Bard would avoid expulsion. Expulsion's not even a possibility until you get 11 DP on someone, and all the votes on him only added up to 7. There were 8 people up for the lynch; an average of about 5 DP per person. 12 DP is still only a 10% chance of expulsion. One more DP pushes that up to the next level, which jumps the probability to 30%.

That's not even considering the fact that you took your vote off of Bard once you saw a lynch train form, which - even if you were unclear on what expulsion would mean - is still pretty suspicious.

@CadCom

Man, I don't want to... but I kind of have to, don't I?

Oh well. I can still talk if I'm expelled, even if I can't lodge complaints. Getting an expulsion is more important. Stink Stink CadCom CadCom.

 

I'm fairly certain that when I posted explaining that I now knew that expulsion wouldn't be as bad, Bard had 14 votes on them, not 7. That meant that just one would have bumped them up to 65% and three would have bumped them up to 80, and 5 to 90% and 6 to 100%. I still didn't add additional people to the lynch because I didn't want to make it any harder for him to be expelled. 

[Elbereth]

The turn is over! Come back for Term 4 in about 4 hours, and maybe we'll even have all the writeups done this time! 

unexpected naps are the bane of my existence

[Elbereth]

LG65: Term 4 Month 1 - Drink With Me

Lin Wa stood in front of the other Masters. He stared at the robe being held out to him. I’m not nearly put together enough to be a Master! I can’t even remember my notebooks. 

He took the robe anyway and put it on. He didn’t want to upset the Masters. Maybe it’d be interesting? 

---

The days were warming, now, winter snows melting to slush. Bright green grass was revealing itself from beneath the snow, and the air smelled of change. 

Also, it rained. A lot. 

A lot. 

The rain poured down almost every day, flooding the streets in a few less-than-well-drained locations. Students tramped about miserably, doing their best to protect their precious papers and books. Even the Fishery sprung a leak, which was caught quickly but nonetheless became the talk of the school for a few days. The chemicals inside were volatile enough that had the water not been caught... well. Bad things could have happened. 

Catalan especially hated the rain. It was horrid and muddy and got all over his clothes no matter how much care he took. He felt like it was slowly driving him mad. 

Maybe I am, he mused. Seems to be at least two students in a term, and we haven’t had the second one yet... What if it is me? What if this rain is going to slowly drive me insane until I go to the Crockery? I’ve been feeling weird lately, been all scattered... His heart rate started to pick up. Maybe something got into the rain - no, but then everyone would be affected, not just me. Maybe it’s my drinking water? 

Catalan tensed, looking at the glass of water sitting on his desk. Was it poison? Or maybe it was something in his food - he got it from the innkeeper, it’s not like he made his meals himself. What if... what if... Oh no, and if they realize I know they’ll come after me. Silence me. But I can’t stay, either, or I’ll go mad. I have to get out of here!

He ran out of his rooms, not even looking where he was going. Rushing down the stairs, he- bang

“Ow,” he said weakly. 

“Are you alright?” said someone. 

“No! Get away from me!” Catalan wriggled away from the thing coming his way - maybe a hand, maybe a weird blob of flesh. He still couldn’t see well enough to tell. “Get me out of here! It’s not safe, they’re poisoning the food!”

“I think you need to go to the Medica.”
“Or maybe the Crockery...”
“Come on, get the lad up, he clearly needs the help!”
“Poisoning? I haven’t felt anything odd.”
“Poor man...”
The voices overlapped and spun around Catalan’s head, bouncing off the walls and getting louder and louder until he blacked out. 

---

Catalan (Coda) went insane!

Maern (Xino) was brought on the Horns, but the charges were dropped!
Vol (Devotary) was brought on the Horns and charged with Undignified Mischief! (again)
Cadici (CadCom) was brought on the Horns and charged with Conduct Unbecoming! He will be lashed!
Lyoan (Fura) was brought on the Horns and charged with Conduct Unbecoming! He will also be lashed!
Kynedath was brought on the Horns and charged with Undignified Mischief!

These students were elevated: Kendel (Elkanah), Straw Altiora (Straw), Lord Silberfarben, Lasko Veitch (Karnage), Vol (Devotary), Cadici (CadCom), Lyoan (Fura), Amila Tays (Zillah), Rath.

Lin Wa became a Master!

 

Player List
1. @Haelbarde - Seòras
2. @Elandera - Athdara, alchemist
3. @Burnt Spaghetti - Bryn Aria
4. @DeTess - Evelyn Bryen
5. @Elkanah
6. @Straw - Straw
7. @xinoehp512
8. @Lord_Silberfarben - Lord Silberfarben
9. @Coda - Catalan, namer
10. @Karnage - Lasko Veitch
11. @Hemalurgic Headshot
12. @StrikerEZ - Ryykal Ladzo
13. @Lumgol - Caia Irèn
14. @Experience - Shard
15. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Vol, paranoid alchemist
16. @CadCom - Cadaci
17. @Sart - Sagaer Murtoy, accompanied by a child
18. @Furamirionind
19. @Zillah
20. @Araris Valerian - Arael Solon
21. @Rathmaskal - Rath
22. @STINK - Ugfal the Three-Handed, with only two hands
23. @Kynedath - Traelynn Weeks, likes beets
24. @Walin - Lin Wa
25. @GreenRover - Knighter Nune
26. @Young Bard - Nethwyl Nox, pyromaniac
27. @TheMightyLopen - Leo

Edited May 13, 2020 by Elbereth

[Furamirionind]

OH MY I WAS ELEVATED THIS IS A MIRACLE!!!!!!!!!!

And... I forgot to RP... So this will be fun...

Aaaaand... I'm roleblocked for 3 turns???? There is a non-zero chance at this point I have enough EP to just shoot to master in my field... so I might be a master before I can use a single action. This is going to really suck xD

[Coffeecat]

congrats lin!

im kind of jealous

Edited May 12, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben
hmm, who is lia? i meant lin

[CadCom]

9 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

OH MY I WAS ELEVATED THIS IS A MIRACLE!!!!!!!!!!

And... I forgot to RP... So this will be fun...

Aaaaand... I'm roleblocked for 3 turns???? There is a non-zero chance at this point I have enough EP to just shoot to master in my field... so I might be a master before I can use a single action. This is going to really suck xD

You know, I was hoping to follow the same route as you, but you cant be elevated when you have lashings. All you can do is file EP. 

We're stuck in the same boat. I was also elevated but now I'm stuck where I was too. 

[Furamirionind]

Just now, CadCom said:

You know, I was hoping to follow the same route as you, but you cant be elevated when you have lashings. All you can do is file EP. 

We're stuck in the same boat. I was also elevated but now I'm stuck where I was too. 

Wait, I overlooked that.

Wow, so I reach rank 1, at halfway through the game, and am now stuck here for longer. *sigh*

Well, At least I know I'll be next in line for master after whoever is ahead of me gets there first.  If the elims want to kill them, I'll look the other way

[Haelbarde]

So here is the full list of players, sorted by elevation.

Rank 0 - Unelevated - 5
Ethdara (Elendera), Hemalurgic Headshot, Ryykal Ladzo (StrikerEZ), Caia Irèn (Lumgol), Sagaer Murtoy (Sart)

Rank 1 - E'lir - 6
Ugfal the Three-Handed (Stink), Traelynn Weeks (Kynedath), Knighter Nune (Rover), Vol (Devotary), Cadici (CadCom), Lyoan (Fura)

Rank 2 - Re'lar - 9
Bryn Aria (Burnt Spaghetti), Evelyn Bryen (DeTess), Seòras (Haelbarde), Catalan (Coda), Arael Solon (Araris), Leo (Lopen), Straw Altiora (Straw), Lasko Veitch (Karnage), Rath

Rank 3 - El'the - 6
Shard (Experience), Nethwyl Nox (Bard), Maern (Xino), Kendel (Elkanah), Lord Silberfarben, Amila Tays (Zillah)

Rank 4 - Master - 1
Lin Wa (Walin)

So interestlingly, Elendera is the only sane player to have not been elevated, now that Devotary, CadCom and Fura got elevations. I'm also surprised we have a Master already. I knew we had El'the but I was sort of assuming we'd have another Term before people'd be able to build up the EP for it.

Looking then at the El'the given the possibility of them reaching Master, I'm concerned that I basically know nothing about Zillah. They are an El'the, so they've obviously been filling EP and remaining at the university, but they have only made two (1.1, 2.1) game relevant posts, otherwise having only RP'd, with no posts here in 6 days. There's nothing to work with in regards to determining their allignment. 

Of the others:

• Xino I sorta trust
• Silberfarben hasn't contributed much, but at least has been posting comments regarding the game. I haven't seen the change in posting style that I might have expected if they (as a newer player) were an eliminator, so I'm leaning village for the time being. 
• Elkanah has been low active, but has at least posted more game relevant content than many of the other low actives. Feeling neutral about them presently.
• Experience I had said I had a slight village lean on before, but they've not posted much since. @Experience - any thoughts on last cycle's lynch? Have anyone you're suspicous of currently?

I intend to go back and update the read list to be current for this cycle (I got it finished before, but some of those reads are a bit out of date now). I'll try and unpack the flurry of complaints that were filed in the last 6 hours of the cycle a bit later.