Long Game 65: Dancing through Life

[Burnt Spaghetti]

11 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

 

I also think that it would be nice if we could get a kill in on Bard, for confirmation, although I would be careful of the elim’s protection role. Since no one has come forward to claim to be the person who protected Bard, it’s probably safest to assume that they’re probably not on the village’s side, for now.

I'm not so sure about that. I don't see why someone would come forward to tell thread that they're a protection role. If a villager, the amount of risk it would pose to them would not be at all worth the chance of sparing bard the lynch when even they don't necessarily have a guarantee that bards not an eliminator.  Not only would they now be paid a lot more attention to in thread, but would also be a target for roleblocks and potentially attacks or both. Personally i'd reckon that publicly claiming to be a physicker would be near suicide. Yeah they can protect themselves, but if skindancers want to make sure their targets aren't being protected by the physicker, they know exactly who to nahlrout. And I'm not sure what we'd gain from knowing who claimed to protect bard. Yes, maybe they would be evil too if Bard flips evil on the inevitable occasion that he finds his alignment being revealed via writeup, having a name connection would be useful in that scenario. But a skindancer wouldn't want to link themselves so strongly like that. So regardless of alignment, I am very much not surprised no one claimed ownership of that protection.

[TheMightyLopen]

Leo walked out of class with a grin on his face.

Finally, something went right! Looks like luck is back on my side! One of the Masters had called on him to do a demonstration he had not at all expected, but in the end he'd somehow managed to pull it off! The Master had even seemed a little impressed!

After the unpleasant business of an expulsion happening earlier, Leo had felt like there was a dark cloud hanging over everything, but this helped him push all of that out of his mind and back to his carefree ways. That Catalan fellow even apologized for accusing him! Leo had definitely not expected that.

Leo paused. Maybe things are going a little too well at the moment, he thought to himself. You never wanted to have too much good luck all at once. That usually meant an equally large amount of bad luck was just around the corner. That's what his father had always told him anyways. But then what did he know? He was extremely well off, and it seemed any business venture he attempted was successful. Or...wait, maybe that meant he actually did know what he was talking about? Leo shrugged. I guess it can't hurt to take an extra precaution or two. Maybe hide some of my money in my boots or something. Avoid ladders. Wasn't there something about cats and bad luck? Best to avoid them as well just in case.

And with that thought in mind, Leo carefully made his way to his next class, wary of any nearby cats or anyone who looked like they might like cats.

---

So, Bard was expelled. At this point, probably would be worth it to send a kill on him, but it's not necessary in terms of wincon(only need to expel Skindancers) and isn't quite as likely to go through(if the Physicker that protected him is evil, they should have Cheating Death available now). If someone's got 30 Talents lying around(if that's what Assassins still cost that is), good luck to you if you want to try it. Or if we've got a high level Namer, but that probably risks Insanity, so I'd advise caution if you don't have any Physicker to help you.

9 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I'm now 99% certain Silberfarben is village. Silber had a solid suspicion that only DeTess and I contested. I was actually expecting there to be an elim push for either DeTess or myself (probably DeTess though) to be lynched this turn based off of that. However, with DeTess going insane, that would hurt that effort a bit. I don't think Silber would give up an opportunity like that. I'm not explaining this great, but hopefully what I'm saying makes sense. Lol

Also, thank you Hael for posting the player list. I've had to keep going back to the initial thread for it. xD
Well, I haven't done a player by player reads list yet, which I see as somewhat of an oversight by me. So here it goes. I'm not going to do these in any specific order. I'm basically just going to do those I find easiest first to get something out, and then I'll move on.

  Reveal hidden contents

(inserting after finishing... I ended up just going after the nobles... But after Finishing Elandera (who I did last. Lol) I ran out of energy... So I'll come back to Coda And Devotary who I haven't done yet.

Elandera
Started by defending nobles very adamently. Though I think that's NAI for the first cycle of the game.

It might just be me here, but this sentence doesn't seem to be coming from the perspective of a noble. Why would anyone fear the Nobles in Imre? What kind of power would they have? They could kill people, they could defend themselves, and they could make contracts. However they wouldn't have any actions, couldn't vote, or PM most players. If I was a noble, that's not personally how I'd like to play the game, but I wouldn't fear that. A bit suspicious IMO.

 

This post is interesting. Starts going through Lopen's posts, and makes quite a few good points about Xino. However it is interesting that she just jumps to Xino without considering Bard at all. Most of the thread did the opposite, jumping on Bard and considering Xino later. She refers to the lie as "Bard's apparent lie", Then does analysis to put a reasonable suspicion on Xino, and doesn't talk about Bard at all, or say/imply she will look into Bard at all.
This is all kind of circumstantial, but what I find really suspicious is that she voted on Xino and Bard. In what universe are, at this point, Xino and Bard both elims? I could maybe see some elim compositions trying a gambit like this, but the likelihood is only worth considering once both flip good in my opinion.

tl:dr - This has all the elements of hedging on a perceived lost lynch. Attacking the accuser, ignoring the "lynchee", voting on Bard, and even (for this game) spreading out the votes.

Karnage - Village
While most of the content isn't really AI, they just sound super villager-y. With all the questions and pings in thread as well, I'm inclined to think they are village. They were my strongest village read for a while, mostly just because of this.

Araris - Strong Village
I don't believe I've ever caught Araris when he has been an elim or neutral or whatever... But here it goes.
In turn 2.1, Araris basically creates the movement for in-thread interactions and voting to become more useful for the village. This seems very villager-y to me... Though the game is also more fun as an elim when people are trying to find you, so that's not something that should clear him necessarily. However, what I think does a lot more to clear him, is him saying "I wanted to wait and see who would suggest that we continue spreading votes out.". While this might normally be a bad thing, if an elim was trying to do this, I think they would do this at the beginning of the cycle because they are either doing this to make the game more fun, or because an elim isn't getting elevated in a certain field and they want to narrow down the competition. Either way, they want the thread Expelling people ASAP. This line suggests that Araris considered saying this at the beginning of the turn and had the opportunity, yet didn't for the sake of information. This is super villager-y. 
I'm going to stop looking into Araris' posts because this alone has me convinced. However if I get stuck later, I might come back to him if I'm also convinced of everyone else.
 

@GreenRover - Slight elim? Maybe?
Didn't post at all last turn. The previous post was an RP vote against Karnage, pretty meaningless imo...
The post before that was interesting though, in turn 1.2

This line I find specifically interesting. First, I'm not sure what you are saying when you say three turns is long enough to become semi-cleared. If that was the case, the game would likely be just about over now : P. However I may be misunderstanding, so please clarify if you wouldn't mind. =)
The thing I find interesting is your use of the term "fellow Skinwalkers". Also, I will ask that no one responds to this prompt for GreenRover. I fully believe they are capable of responding themselves. *Looks at Straw* : P

Bard
Is expelled, so we can kind of not worry about him being an elim for a while. If he is one, he can still technically kill anyone else expelled or not in the University... However, it's more beneficial to analyse those inside the University. If something else happens people think garners suspicion on Bard, they could have him assassinated to see a flip, though I don't think that's needed quite yet.

Lopen - Village
While I had some suspicions on Lopen early on, since then Lopen has been putting a lot of effort into solving the game, has come up with suspicions and seems to be having a fairly village mindset. I'm not going to do this right now, but Lopen is probably the one person in the game almost (if not everyone) in the game has given thoughts on. Going through and following what people are saying about Lopen at what times will probably, at this point, be a better way of analysing him than actually looking at his own posts.

 

Summary of my post: I'm going to put both votes on Elandera. = )

Elandera, Elandera

I think I get your point, and I do like Silber's train of thought in that post about you and DeTess. But saying you're 99% sure he's village just from that kinda seems like "pocketing." (I think that's the right term) You also do something similar in this post about Araris, someone I'm confident is experienced enough to have posted what he did as an eliminator.

I do find Elandera voting on both Xino and Bard a little odd, but not something necessarily evil? I've found villagers actually tend to say and do quite a few odd things over the course of a game, whereas eliminators try to avoid anything that would draw attention to themselves.

This post just feels off to me overall. Maybe it's just how confident you are in your reads when I don't remember you being so much before. Feels like you're making leaps to trust people that aren't quite there. Fura

I'm also still quite suspicious of Coda, but I feel I may be tunneling a bit at this point, so I'm not going to put another vote on him unless a lynch on him gets some traction, in which case I would be willing to lynch him. For now though, I think my time would be better spent looking at other players I haven't focused on much yet.

[Furamirionind]

28 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I think I get your point, and I do like Silber's train of thought in that post about you and DeTess. But saying you're 99% sure he's village just from that kinda seems like "pocketing." (I think that's the right term) You also do something similar in this post about Araris, someone I'm confident is experienced enough to have posted what he did as an eliminator.

Well, I suppose that's fair... Though that extra line about waiting to post that... I don't see a reason for an elim to add that line unless it's true. And if it's true, I don't think he is an elim.
However, I did state before that I've never caught an Araris before, so if you are looking for hedging in my post, there it is. : P

57 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I also think that it would be nice if we could get a kill in on Bard, for confirmation, although I would be careful of the elim’s protection role. Since no one has come forward to claim to be the person who protected Bard, it’s probably safest to assume that they’re probably not on the village’s side, for now.

37 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

I'm not so sure about that. I don't see why someone would come forward to tell thread that they're a protection role. If a villager, the amount of risk it would pose to them would not be at all worth the chance of sparing bard the lynch when even they don't necessarily have a guarantee that bards not an eliminator.  Not only would they now be paid a lot more attention to in thread, but would also be a target for roleblocks and potentially attacks or both. Personally i'd reckon that publicly claiming to be a physicker would be near suicide. Yeah they can protect themselves, but if skindancers want to make sure their targets aren't being protected by the physicker, they know exactly who to nahlrout. And I'm not sure what we'd gain from knowing who claimed to protect bard. Yes, maybe they would be evil too if Bard flips evil on the inevitable occasion that he finds his alignment being revealed via writeup, having a name connection would be useful in that scenario. But a skindancer wouldn't want to link themselves so strongly like that. So regardless of alignment, I am very much not surprised no one claimed ownership of that protection.

Yeah, I agree that the lack of a public claim really doesn't mean anything. The fact that whoever this is clearly trusted Bard to some extent already narrows it down quite a bit. However I still do think it's safest to assume the elims have a Physicker, at least for the time being.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

5 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

 

Yeah, I agree that the lack of a public claim really doesn't mean anything. The fact that whoever this is clearly trusted Bard to some extent already narrows it down quite a bit. However I still do think it's safest to assume the elims have a Physicker, at least for the time being.

Thats fair. Its an area that makes sense to be pursued by a skindancer. Gotta get that counselling to make them bonetars or naming usage orrr mommet usages or whatever other insanity roles there are. Plenty of things that counsellings handy for.  So yea, I do agree with the idea that theres most likely going to be an elim physicker especially when theres been 4 physicker elevations meaning between 2-4 physickers out there.

Tbh the more elevations happen the more I start realising things like the possibility of having 4 namers out there. or a high leveled namer. anyone else starting to ponder the possibilities of whats out there? like that there could be a bunch of mommets out there already. most games you lose dangerous roles as the game progresses, this game be the opposite >>

[Straw]

I'd better start RPing more if I want to survive tuition.

Straw watched as Nethwyl was thrown out of the University. Good riddance! The Masters didn't always comply with the will of the students, but this time, they had been willing to listen to the crowd and push out Nethwyl. Apparently Maern had found even more lies in Nethwyl's writing, so the decision was looking better by the minute. It was too bad that other students had been passed over in favor of Nethwyl, but hopefully, they'd now get the attention they deserved. In other news, a few students had been brought up on the Horns. It seemed like the Masters wanted to be a bit more harsh than usual. Also, another student, Evelyn had gone insane. It was rather ridiculous how consistently people were going mad. Maybe the people in the fields that usually made people go insane were being more careful than usual.

As Straw walked across the courtyard, he noticed Bryn and Seoras walking together. It looked like Bryn's hair was wet for some reason. It was probably some sort of accident, since who would want to be wet when it was this cold out? Straw walked over to talk to them. Maybe Bryn and Seoras would have some thoughts on recent events.

( @Burnt Spaghetti @Haelbarde )

[xinoehp512]

Maern looked him straight in the eyes. No fear. “I didn’t know I needed to ask your permission.”

The investigator smiled. It was not a pretty smile. “You’re a witness, aren’t you? You saw what she did.”

“Uh…” said Maern, slightly off guard. “Yes? I don’t see how that matters, though.”

“It means,” said the investigator, leaning in close and lowering his voice, “we have the right to take you in for questioning.”

“Questioning about what?” said Maern in irritation leaning back. “I saw her fall. That was it. I’m not sure what you think I might know that you would ask me?”

“Are you sure?” said the investigator.

“Yes.”

“Certain?”

“...yes?”

The investigator narrowed his eyes in a sneer. “You don’t sound sure. Maybe we should take you in for questioning anyways. Just to make certain you don’t know anything important.”

“I don’t,” said Maern in irritation, moving to the side to try and go around the investigator. “Now, can you please stop bothering me? I have a lot of homework that I need to do. That’s a kind of schoolwork that needs to be done at home. It’s a thing we students do.”

-----

5 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

I'm not so sure about that. I don't see why someone would come forward to tell thread that they're a protection role. If a villager, the amount of risk it would pose to them would not be at all worth the chance of sparing bard the lynch when even they don't necessarily have a guarantee that bards not an eliminator.  Not only would they now be paid a lot more attention to in thread, but would also be a target for roleblocks and potentially attacks or both. Personally i'd reckon that publicly claiming to be a physicker would be near suicide. Yeah they can protect themselves, but if skindancers want to make sure their targets aren't being protected by the physicker, they know exactly who to nahlrout. And I'm not sure what we'd gain from knowing who claimed to protect bard. Yes, maybe they would be evil too if Bard flips evil on the inevitable occasion that he finds his alignment being revealed via writeup, having a name connection would be useful in that scenario. But a skindancer wouldn't want to link themselves so strongly like that. So regardless of alignment, I am very much not surprised no one claimed ownership of that protection.

A fair point.

5 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Well, I suppose that's fair... Though that extra line about waiting to post that... I don't see a reason for an elim to add that line unless it's true. And if it's true, I don't think he is an elim.
However, I did state before that I've never caught an Araris before, so if you are looking for hedging in my post, there it is. : P

Yeah, I agree that the lack of a public claim really doesn't mean anything. The fact that whoever this is clearly trusted Bard to some extent already narrows it down quite a bit. However I still do think it's safest to assume the elims have a Physicker, at least for the time being.

Even fairer.

Here are the votes from last turn:

Bard (14): Hael, Elandera, Elkanah, Elkanah, Straw, Straw, Xino, Xino, Coda, Coda, Araris, Devotary, Fura, Fura
Coda (5): DeTess, DeTess, Rath, Lopen, Lopen
Fura (4): Silber, CadCom, Stink, Stink
Araris (2): Karnage, Karnage
DeTess (2): Silber, Araris
Elkanah (2): Bard, Bard
Burnt (1): Kynedath
Xino (1): Elandera

(Also, just FYI, from the information I've recieved/evidence I've gathered I'm going to be assuming Bard is an elim in my analysis from here on out, even if it isn't 100% certain yet, because it makes things easier.)

Clearly an overwhelming majority on Bard, but there are votes elsewhere. One particular class of individuals that I find interesting are the people who threw one vote on Bard and one vote somewhere else (or nowhere) There were four people who did this: Hael, Elandera, Araris, and Devotary. Given that each additional vote on Bard is that much more of a chance that he would be expelled, this seems like a perfect way for an elim to show support of a lynch while also attempting to minimize its impact.

Another group to watch is the no-voters. There were 19 people who cast votes, which means 8 people didn't cast votes. I'm afraid I'm currently in a rush to get this post finished, so I can't list them all out, but I'll see if I can go through them in later posts. I suspect many of them will coincide with less-active individuals. Elims might choose this route in order to fly under the radar, a possibility that's been discussed earlier.

And of course, there's all the other votes. I'm going to be quite busy this cycle, I can already tell.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

Another group to watch is the no-voters. There were 19 people who cast votes, which means 8 people didn't cast votes. I'm afraid I'm currently in a rush to get this post finished, so I can't list them all out, but I'll see if I can go through them in later posts. I suspect many of them will coincide with less-active individuals. Elims might choose this route in order to fly under the radar, a possibility that's been discussed earlier.

Your counts are slightly off. Only 18 people cast votes, but 4 were insane, so only 5 people didn't vote: Burnt, Experience, Zillah, Walin, and Greenrover. Of these, Experience, Zillah, and Greenrover are relatively new players, so their lack of votes is slightly more sensible. Also, given that money is a resource for the elim team, and that voting (at least once) is an easy way to earn some cash, I'd anticipate that the elims probably all voted at least once. I think I should probably lump STINK in with the non-voters, since his votes on Fura were somewhat trolly.

Also, the following is somewhat wrong:

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

Clearly an overwhelming majority on Bard, but there are votes elsewhere. One particular class of individuals that I find interesting are the people who threw one vote on Bard and one vote somewhere else (or nowhere) There were four people who did this: Hael, Elandera, Araris, and Devotary. Given that each additional vote on Bard is that much more of a chance that he would be expelled, this seems like a perfect way for an elim to show support of a lynch while also attempting to minimize its impact. ignore this

Hael and Devotary didn't place a second vote. edit: I realize that you mentioned that

Come to think of it, here's the list of players that only voted once: Hael, Devotary, Rath, Cadcom, Kynedath. This to me seems like the place elims would hide. (STINK could also fit in here, since he did end up getting the tuition reduction without committing to much).

Hael has been posting a lot of content, although all of his reads are village/neutral, which isn't helpful. I'm going to wait before voting on him.

I can understand why Rath voted only once on Coda, but that doesn't explain why he didn't use his second vote. Also, I think a lot of Coda's posts have been RP, although not clearly discernible as such. So I question Rath's vote here.

Devotary voted on Bard only at the end of the cycle, and only once. That's pretty suspicious to me.

Cadcom had two votes out, and then place a single vote on Fura. I'm hesitant about this, since in his shoes I would have voted Bard+Fura, to make sure that spreading votes didn't hinder the lynch of Bard, which CadCom claimed to support. 

Kynedath voted on Burnt for hedging about a WGG on Bard. Of course, it's usually impossible to tell if a WGG occurred, and just mentioning it is a good idea so people don't put their trust in the wrong places. So I probably disagree both with this vote, and the fact that it was singular. I'm also disappointed that Kynedath never took a stance on Bard.

In conclusion, I'm happy to vote on Rath, Devotary, Cadcom, or Kynedath, and Devotary is probably the highest suspicion out of those. RP to come later perhaps.

Edited May 10, 2020 by Araris Valerian
goof

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

32 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Clearly an overwhelming majority on Bard, but there are votes elsewhere. One particular class of individuals that I find interesting are the people who threw one vote on Bard and one vote somewhere else (or nowhere) There were four people who did this: Hael, Elandera, Araris, and Devotary. Given that each additional vote on Bard is that much more of a chance that he would be expelled, this seems like a perfect way for an elim to show support of a lynch while also attempting to minimize its impact.

Another group to watch is the no-voters. There were 19 people who cast votes, which means 8 people didn't cast votes. I'm afraid I'm currently in a rush to get this post finished, so I can't list them all out, but I'll see if I can go through them in later posts. I suspect many of them will coincide with less-active individuals. Elims might choose this route in order to fly under the radar, a possibility that's been discussed earlier.

Only every second vote counts, so there was little reason to put a thirteenth vote on. I was assuming Bard was staying at the Windy tower to be so fortunate in being elevated. I suppose it is possible he was spending the extra money for the Golden Pony, but that didn't seem likely as the cost/benefit of that lodging is low. Adding a second vote might have been worthwhile anyway, since it wouldn't have hurt.

The people who didn't vote are Green Rover, Burnt, Zillah, Experience, and Walin. Of those, only Burnt and Walin definitely saw the votes on Bard.

[Araris Valerian]

Vote count:
Elandera (2): Fura, Fura
Devotary (2): Araris, Araris
Fura (1): Lopen

This is kind of pathetic, given that there are less than 23 hours left in the cycle, although I suppose there is a good chance of expelling all of the above.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Straw]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Vote count:
Elandera (2): Fura, Fura
Devotary (2): Araris, Araris
Fura (1): Lopen

This is kind of pathetic, given that there are less than 23 hours left in the cycle, although I suppose there is a good chance of expelling all of the above.

I'm going to vote on Furamirionind Furamirionind. I really dislike the extreme switch they've made on Silber (going from saying they were his highest suspicion to saying they were 99% village). It feels like an attempt to bait reactions.

[Furamirionind]

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Only every second vote counts, so there was little reason to put a thirteenth vote on. I was assuming Bard was staying at the Windy tower to be so fortunate in being elevated. I suppose it is possible he was spending the extra money for the Golden Pony, but that didn't seem likely as the cost/benefit of that lodging is low. Adding a second vote might have been worthwhile anyway, since it wouldn't have hurt.

While I can see your point, and I think a villager would very possibly have this perspective, I don't see it as excusable. We all have two votes. How we use these votes are going to be the main way we analyse this game. By only using one of these votes, people are denying the village information on people's stances on the lynches. Double voting on someone, shows far more willingness to let that person take consequences than single-voting. For instance, perhaps Walin comes online afterwards and decides to put a single vote on Bard and a single vote on me. Now we are back to an odd number of votes on Bard, which would have been even if someone who didn't use their second vote had double voted. Or what if people suddenly left Bard's wagon to hammer someone else? We don't know how many people would leave.

Like I mentioned in my previous vote analysis, single voting on a target is a form of hedging on the lynch. Both villagers and elims will do this, and it's ok, but I think it's worth remembering.

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

In conclusion, I'm happy to vote on Rath, Devotary, Cadcom, or Kynedath, and Devotary is probably the highest suspicion out of those. RP to come later perhaps.

I'll do some more analysis either later tonight or tomorrow morning, but CadCom has been in all of my lists of people I should be suspicious of, as well as I have been just generally feeling pretty off about him. 
While I think too many things about Elandera still seem strange relative to Bard, her response to what I said is quite reasonable, and I'm now doubting myself... I do find it strange though that people were constantly talking about how suspicious she was in pretty much all of the previous cycles, I connect her to Bard, and the only response I got was Lopen voting on me. Where are people's thoughts and responses? 

Elandera, CadCom, And Devotary are probably my greatest suspicions... More or less in that order.

43 minutes ago, Straw said:

I'm going to vote on Furamirionind Furamirionind. I really dislike the extreme switch they've made on Silber (going from saying they were his highest suspicion to saying they were 99% village). It feels like an attempt to bait reactions.

And... are these votes in protest or because you think baiting is AI?

Edited May 11, 2020 by Furamirionind
Was probably a little too aggressive in my wording originally. Meaning is the exact same

[Straw]

17 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

And... are these votes in protest or because you think baiting is AI?

It's mainly in protest, since I'd like to be able to go back and see what your actual reactions were, rather than attempts to get reactions out of other players.

[Furamirionind]

26 minutes ago, Straw said:

It's mainly in protest, since I'd like to be able to go back and see what your actual reactions were, rather than attempts to get reactions out of other players.

Alright, that's fair, though I am adamant that I have done nothing worthy of a protest vote (Especially since I really want to be elevated at least once... :'(  ). I also think you are misreading, or possibly have completely forgotten, what I've said. And honestly I think you've been tunneling on me for a bit now, so I'm going to go through what I said.

I voted on Silber for the assumption that no elim was raised to El'the. I voted on him because if my initial interpretation was correct, I might be able to catch out an elim. However, I also knew there was a decent chance I'd be changing my vote by the end of the cycle.

Even the sentence, "And... Hopefully you wont mind holding on to these votes for a little while? =)", at least in my head, already implied that these votes were absolutely not permanent. I said, "If this was anything other than your first game, this would probably singlehandedly make you my highest suspicion." for 2 reasons. The first was to convey the message that I, again, am not sold this lynch target. And the second was to hopefully make an elim!Silber nervous so that he'd make a mistake.

Silber's initial reaction did not convince me of his innocence.  So I didn't take my votes off because I wanted to watch how the thread interacted with my votes.

After watching Silber and anyone referencing me or that post that cycle, I decided I trusted Silber. That paired with the reasoning I gave in my previous post this cycle is why I trust him so much at the moment.

Every action I took was genuine, despite my thoughts in between actions perhaps being delayed

I believe this interaction is the sole reason you are voting on me, and hopefully this has clarified things somewhat.

Edit:

The most beneficial (and fun) thing to do with voting in my opinion, is to vote early, watch how the game shifts, and then either keep the votes there or move them. I practice this.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Furamirionind

[Coffeecat]

I still don't really trust Feru, but i will not vote them for now.

Even if DeTess was not an elim, you can still be an Elim.

perhaps you say you think i am villager in order to gain my trust and stop me from voting. hoping i will forget i also sus you, and not only DeTess.

^^^ That is really a lousy gut read. i wont act on it yet.

[Furamirionind]

5 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

I still don't really trust Feru, but i will not vote them for now.

Even if DeTess was not an elim, you can still be an Elim.

perhaps you say you think i am villager in order to gain my trust and stop me from voting. hoping i will forget i also sus you, and not only DeTess.

^^^ That is really a lousy gut read. i wont act on it yet.

Eh, I mean, gut reads are valid and have caught quite a few elims. We need votes placed, so if I'm you best suspicion, you should vote on me.

I just don't want protest votes on me, as I don't believe I earned them properly.

[Coffeecat]

That is my point.

you are not my best sus

you are my only one. and not a good sus.

 

therefore, I haven't voted on you.

[Araris Valerian]

52 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

That is my point.

you are not my best sus

you are my only one. and not a good sus.

 

therefore, I haven't voted on you.

I believe you are contradicting yourself. By definition, your only suspicion must also be your greatest suspicion .

[Coffeecat]

You insolent lordling!

How dare you contradict me!

Yes, contradictive is how I feel

I wouldn't vote someone because they are the only one I somewhat suspect.

Perhaps I should, but that is not my playstyle.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

 

Spoiler

16 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Seoras was a morning person. Unfortunately, it did making him a morning class person. He really did not enjoy morning classes. For some reason, the obligation of making a class on time sapped all motivation for early rising. 

With a sigh, he finally dragged himself up to face the day. It was cold. Why was it still cold... He really missed the warmer weather he'd had back home. 

Eventually pulling together everything he needed, throwing down some food, he checked the time. 

Eh.

He probably still had time to get to the university before class started.

If he was quick.

...

And had left a few minutes ago.

He hurried out.

 

---

As he tried to keep moving to keep warm as he shivered under the not thick enough coat, he spotted another student who seemed to be running behind as well. He ran to catch up, recognising Bryn in her surprising fancy coat as he got closer. As he approached, he noted the streaks in her dripping wet hair that was in danger of freezing in the bitter morning breeze. He bumped her with his shoulder. 

"Hey!" He glanced at her hair. "Trying out a new look with your hair I see."

@Burnt Spaghetti

12 hours ago, Straw said:

I'd better start RPing more if I want to survive tuition.

Straw watched as Nethwyl was thrown out of the University. Good riddance! The Masters didn't always comply with the will of the students, but this time, they had been willing to listen to the crowd and push out Nethwyl. Apparently Maern had found even more lies in Nethwyl's writing, so the decision was looking better by the minute. It was too bad that other students had been passed over in favor of Nethwyl, but hopefully, they'd now get the attention they deserved. In other news, a few students had been brought up on the Horns. It seemed like the Masters wanted to be a bit more harsh than usual. Also, another student, Evelyn had gone insane. It was rather ridiculous how consistently people were going mad. Maybe the people in the fields that usually made people go insane were being more careful than usual.

As Straw walked across the courtyard, he noticed Bryn and Seoras walking together. It looked like Bryn's hair was wet for some reason. It was probably some sort of accident, since who would want to be wet when it was this cold out? Straw walked over to talk to them. Maybe Bryn and Seoras would have some thoughts on recent events.

( @Burnt Spaghetti @Haelbarde )

 

Bryn was hurrying along,  purely focused on trying to get indoors as soon as possible, only really aware of the path in front of her and the coldness of the morning. She let out a little squeak when something bumped her. She glanced up to see Seoras had joined her in the morning late-to-class jog.

"Hey! Trying out a new look with your hair I see." 

She practically growled. 

"Mistakes were made." she said with a huff. "I apparently took a study nap in an ink spill. I do not recommend it. Turns out the ink stains! I'll have to find something to get it out, but I don't know a thing about hair stuff. I ain't rich folky enough to invest in any of those fancy oils and stuff people use. I tried just rinsing it in water, hence the drippyness" she shook her hair slightly to demonstrate the obvious.  "Maybe there's something in the Imre that would help, i'll have to take a trip there."

At this point her regular study buddy Straw had joined them. She gave him a nod and before he could ask, pointed at her hair and said "Ink spill while sleeping. It bad." She paused to think a second "actually come to think about it, the Alchemy lab might have some things in it that could pull pigment or oils out of hair? Certainly cheaper to abscond with that stuff than to find stuff from a store. I mean, as long as I don't have a black streak, I don't care if its replaced with a white streak or is just really unhappy hair for a while. I don't really know what I'd be looking for though...  Either of you familiar enough with whats in those bottles and what things do? I'm likely to just grab some toxic acid by accident and burn my scalp off or set myself on fire or something."

[Haelbarde]

Spoiler

Bryn was hurrying along,  purely focused on trying to get indoors as soon as possible, only really aware of the path in front of her and the coldness of the morning. She let out a little squeak when something bumped her. She glanced up to see Seoras had joined her in the morning late-to-class jog.

"Hey! Trying out a new look with your hair I see." 

She practically growled. 

"Mistakes were made." she said with a huff. "I apparently took a study nap in an ink spill. I do not recommend it. Turns out the ink stains! I'll have to find something to get it out, but I don't know a thing about hair stuff. I ain't rich folky enough to invest in any of those fancy oils and stuff people use. I tried just rinsing it in water, hence the drippyness" she shook her hair slightly to demonstrate the obvious.  "Maybe there's something in the Imre that would help, i'll have to take a trip there."

At this point her regular study buddy Straw had joined them. She gave him a nod and before he could ask, pointed at her hair and said "Ink spill while sleeping. It bad." She paused to think a second "actually come to think about it, the Alchemy lab might have some things in it that could pull pigment or oils out of hair? Certainly cheaper to abscond with that stuff than to find stuff from a store. I mean, as long as I don't have a black streak, I don't care if its replaced with a white streak or is just really unhappy hair for a while. I don't really know what I'd be looking for though...  Either of you familiar enough with whats in those bottles and what things do? I'm likely to just grab some toxic acid by accident and burn my scalp off or set myself on fire or something."

Bryn bristled, literally growling in response.

"Mistakes were made." She said with a huff, telling her tale.

"Ah, that I can see. Maybe you could correct it with some red ink?"

Seoras chuckled at the though of fixing hair dye in the Alchemy lab. "I'm sure that the Alchemy lab might have something to deal with your hair. More than likely permanently. About the most I could help is in navigating to it's front door, alas. The tales I've heard told of that building contains too high a chance of limb loss for me to have much interest in spending a lot of time there. I'm in for poking around in there for hair dying experiments though." 

He nodded to Straw as they joined their brisk walk/jog towards the hopefully warmer university halls. 

"You might have a better chance with the Artificery workshop though. Well, probably the Medica would have something for sure, but I rather suspect they might keep a little bit of a closer eye on their storage cabinets than the workshop would. And based on what we've seen on the Horns, I think you'd find it quicker to go to the Imre later than get caught and detained in the Medica. The physickers there seem to be downright vindicive..."

@Burnt Spaghetti

Edited May 11, 2020 by Haelbarde
Fixed formatting

[Elandera]

Thinking again about the series of events, I'm somewhat concerned that Bard was honestly attacked and survived, then set up to get expelled to keep him from elevating beyond El'the. Paranoid, yes, but we really need to kill Bard to get some insight into his real alignment and possible hints to others alignment.

That said, I still don't trust Xino, but in reading through things, I realize he's been on the horns a few times already. I'll refrain from a vote there until we get answers about Bard's alignment.

Now, to continue my analysis. I'm returning to D1 again (and going beyond that), since my previous read on it was scattered because of work. It's not as crazy today, so things should be more coherent. I still only skimmed RP to make sure it wasn't game-relevant just because I'll get nowhere with analysis if I only look at one turn per turn and I just don't have that kind of time.

@Furamirionind

Spoiler

Understandably suggests targeting nobles with RP votes since they can afford the tuition increase. The line that made me question, though, was this:

Quote

Personally, I wouldnt reccomend doing this, though its definitely a good option.

This was in response to Elkanah's suggestion that nobles get bodyguards ASAP. I get wanting to target nobles in votes, but why so against them protecting themselves against attacks? Possible elim motivation, or could really be playing the part of Kvothe vs Ambrose.

@Straw

Spoiler

Quote

So essentially, you probably don't want to go into archives if you care about being elevated.

While I get the numbers help back up this statement (chart from a prior game shows 26 of all points went into Archives), it also feels like a discouragement for people to go into one of the best areas for catching an elim. Mostly neutral, though slight elim if there is more evidence.

@TheMightyLopen

Spoiler

Quote

In terms of fields of study, honestly, I'd say just go for whatever sounds fun! I do remember Archives being very popular in the first game as well, so that might be tough to get into.

This has the same sentiment as Straw, almost a discouragement for pursuing Archives. Same neutral/slight elim read if there is more evidence.

Quote

My current thoughts is that the lynch is slightly less effective at catching eliminators in this one, so making sure to get your elevations early is a top priority so we can start getting some information gathering abilities. I still think we should use the lynch to pressure players we're suspicious of, as roleblocks can certainly be useful in hampering activity for said players.

Expelling (lynching) elims is our entire goal, so using it only as a way to pressure suspicious players is contradictory to a village win. However, this could have been a misunderstanding of the rules/win-cons. Slightly suspicious.

@Experience

Spoiler

Quote

Just something to throw out there, because I'm not really sure: Is it better for the student to say what field of study they are going into, or would that help the skindancers more?

...

I also think that there is probably at least one noble, commoner, and one Edema Ruh that are skindancers, probably more because of the number of players. I personaly think that it is best to try and figure out who the noble skindancer(s) is because the student nobles are going to be able to help us the most with their funds.

The first part could be a simple question (I recognize people are more open to sharing information than I am), but I also get a bit of a fishing vibe from it. 

**In the next turn, they went back on the statement and said claiming was not a good idea.**

The second part doesn't fully make sense to me. Yes, there's probably a proportional distribution of elims across classes, but why would finding the noble one be more important to start? It comes across as a suggestion to expel nobles first, while saying don't expel nobles unless we know for sure they're skindancers.

@xinoehp512

Spoiler

Quote

It's at this point in time that votes should start to be determined based on the previous actions of individuals. Of course, the information that we have is rather limited so far, due to the fact that the lynch has not (and likely will not) provide us with significant alignment indicative information.

...

We still do have to worry about the full 45 DP from NPC masters however- which means that a wide vote spread continues to be essential.

...

Finally, a question- if someone were to be expelled on a charge of Conduct Unbecoming, would the thread be informed?

The first part of the first section and the second section in its entirety contradict each other. In one, he's encouraging focused voting on actions, then still spreading out votes. Spreading votes is really only plausible if there are no suspicions.

The second part of the first section combined with what happened makes me question this last turn again. Setting someone up for a mis-expel would not be much of a risk unless someone actually killed the target that same turn. It would be fairly easy to create false evidence, and survive a few more turns. Especially when the evidence came from an unknown player.

The third section is just another piece of that theory. If we weren't informed, it would be really easy to set up that kind of play.

On term 1.2, Straw brought up a point that could be in favor of Xino, against Bard. 

Quote

Another thing that I just thought of is that most abilities that the Skindancers would want tend to cause insanity. Due to this, I think that Skindancers might go into Physicking so they can use the counseling ability on their fellow Skindancers. The roleblock and self-protect would also be useful for them.

If Bard flips elim, we should probably start trying to find the Physicker skindancer, as that's the likely source for his survival of the insanity.

@Burnt Spaghetti

Spoiler

This is tenuous, as such a move would be potentially dangerous, but Sart voted on Burnt the turn he was attacked. He had done so for not contributing much to finding Skindancers. It was also one of the first votes placed with a reason outside of RP.

From what I've seen in the past games with Burnt, this is generally her playstyle, but it's still a curious occurrence. After the vote, she started to contribute a bit more, but still only general advice regarding mechanics. 

I'm also realizing I greatly misunderstood the Imre rules, and despite it having been pointed out to me D1, I did not know you had to stay in a particular place in order to make constant actions in Imre. That changes a lot of my earlier stances about the danger of throwing all nobles out of the school.

That's it for now. I reached the end of Term 1, and I fear losing this post to a computer that's been glitching.

To sum up, I'm somewhat suspicious of everyone I tagged in varying degrees. I have a fair bit of trust for Devotary, Elkanah, and Hael.

[STINK]

9 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

(Especially since I really want to be elevated at least once... :'(  )

Apologies for basically vanishing yesterday, but now I'm back and I felt bad when I read that  As part of the 1-elevation-gang, t'would be rude of me to deny you the chance to enter our prestigious ranks

Bard is expelled which I guess is coolio if elevating him was bad but uh did anyone actually bother verifying the whole 'was it a WGG' thing'? Or have smarter minds dismissed that as not a viable play for various reasons idk people are getting too many actions now too many 3rd and 2nd level people who can just bop things out probably. 

Maybe I should drop some analysis but I'm not sure who on so maybe I'll roll a dice on it or something

[Coffeecat]

 huh

wrong chat lol

sorry i am innactive, but i am a bit overwhelmed

Edited May 11, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben
Huh

[GreenRover]

My apologies for being really inactive these past few terms. I’ll try to get some analysis in throughout the day.

I medium trust Karnage because of their explanation behind the reasons the rooms went for DeTess. I don’t think they’d do that as an elim themselves. More analysis later

[Burnt Spaghetti]

3 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Bryn was hurrying along,  purely focused on trying to get indoors as soon as possible, only really aware of the path in front of her and the coldness of the morning. She let out a little squeak when something bumped her. She glanced up to see Seoras had joined her in the morning late-to-class jog.

"Hey! Trying out a new look with your hair I see." 

She practically growled. 

"Mistakes were made." she said with a huff. "I apparently took a study nap in an ink spill. I do not recommend it. Turns out the ink stains! I'll have to find something to get it out, but I don't know a thing about hair stuff. I ain't rich folky enough to invest in any of those fancy oils and stuff people use. I tried just rinsing it in water, hence the drippyness" she shook her hair slightly to demonstrate the obvious.  "Maybe there's something in the Imre that would help, i'll have to take a trip there."

At this point her regular study buddy Straw had joined them. She gave him a nod and before he could ask, pointed at her hair and said "Ink spill while sleeping. It bad." She paused to think a second "actually come to think about it, the Alchemy lab might have some things in it that could pull pigment or oils out of hair? Certainly cheaper to abscond with that stuff than to find stuff from a store. I mean, as long as I don't have a black streak, I don't care if its replaced with a white streak or is just really unhappy hair for a while. I don't really know what I'd be looking for though...  Either of you familiar enough with whats in those bottles and what things do? I'm likely to just grab some toxic acid by accident and burn my scalp off or set myself on fire or something."

Bryn bristled, literally growling in response.

"Mistakes were made." She said with a huff, telling her tale.

"Ah, that I can see. Maybe you could correct it with some red ink?"

Seoras chuckled at the though of fixing hair dye in the Alchemy lab. "I'm sure that the Alchemy lab might have something to deal with your hair. More than likely permanently. About the most I could help is in navigating to it's front door, alas. The tales I've heard told of that building contains too high a chance of limb loss for me to have much interest in spending a lot of time there. I'm in for poking around in there for hair dying experiments though." 

He nodded to Straw as they joined their brisk walk/jog towards the hopefully warmer university halls. 

"You might have a better chance with the Artificery workshop though. Well, probably the Medica would have something for sure, but I rather suspect they might keep a little bit of a closer eye on their storage cabinets than the workshop would. And based on what we've seen on the Horns, I think you'd find it quicker to go to the Imre later than get caught and detained in the Medica. The physickers there seem to be downright vindicive..."

@Burnt Spaghetti

"Red ink isn't the worst idea. But would have to get the black out first. Maybe if I got something that bleached it white, that would be a good option for bringing back the colour." She did have a decent stock of different coloured inks at the moment. She had an art project of sorts she was meant to be getting done, but was struggling for ideas on that so hadn't even started work on it.

"Hm, not convinced about the Artificery option, but you have a point about the Medica. Things need to be sterilized and bleached clean regularly I'd think. Plus stuff from there might be a tad safer than what the Alchemists use.  I'm probably less likely to give myself severe chemical burns from Medical stuff. But I don't really know anything about what they use. I dunno if they have something fancy Plus might be able to yoink some other things in the mean time. I wonder if they'd notice if spare blankets went missing. I could use some new gloves or a scarf, could probably turn a blanket into something useable. Hm. I doubt I'd be able to easily get anything though..." She pondered the options as they neared the building.

"We could always check the Medica first? See how busy it is at least. Though there would be student physickers populating it too. Wonder what the story was with the student that was able to save that Newthyl person in time. The one that was kicked out. I wonder how they're doing too, cause it must be pretty rough to go so far in your studies and have your skills highly recognized, to only be thrown out before you're ready. Kinda curious about that whole thing, I wonder if we'll see on the noticeboards one day some fancy article from the physicker savior retelling the events. That sorta dramas always really fun to read."

---

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

 

@Burnt Spaghetti

  Hide contents

This is tenuous, as such a move would be potentially dangerous, but Sart voted on Burnt the turn he was attacked. He had done so for not contributing much to finding Skindancers. It was also one of the first votes placed with a reason outside of RP.

From what I've seen in the past games with Burnt, this is generally her playstyle, but it's still a curious occurrence. After the vote, she started to contribute a bit more, but still only general advice regarding mechanics. 

 

Oh thats interesting. Makes me kinda want to analyse past vote counts now. If someones more motivated or has already done it, having every vote count ever put into a post comparing them, would be interesting to see things like everyone who the insane people voted for, and the list of who voted on the now insane people