Long Game 65: Dancing through Life

[Furamirionind]

Sorry, I just woke up. Still deciding who to put my votes on, but I'm pretty sure Sibler is village at this point.

Silber Silber

Edit

While I'll apologize to Bard for taking away his chance at becoming a Master, I just went back over the rules, and I think expelling him shouldn't be too big of a deal for Village Bard. He will still be able to talk in thread, do things in Imre, and use actions on people not attending the University. Also, if we expelled every player in the game, the village would win. So we shouldn't shy away from expelling people.

Bard (14): Hael, Elandera, Elkanah, Elkanah, Straw, Straw, Xino, Xino, Coda, Coda, Araris, Devotary, Fura, Fura
Coda (5): DeTess, DeTess, Rath, Lopen, Lopen
Araris (2): Karnage, Karnage
DeTess (2): Silber, Araris
Elkanah (2): Bard, Bard
Burnt (1): Kynedath
Fura (1): Silber
Xino (1): Elandera

However even with all these votes, there is still a somewhat reasonable chance that Bard won't get expelled.

Bard Bard

Edited May 9, 2020 by Furamirionind

[Burnt Spaghetti]

(last post before sleep, it rp because elevations are not kind on tuition)

The archives were quietening down. Bryn sighed and pulled the book away from her face, closing it softly. If she didn't leave soon it would be harder to walk out undetected. It was always easier to blend in to a group than to just leave solo. Leaning out from her spot she glanced around, looking for feet and listening for movement. Seemed alright. Slipping the book into her shoulder bag she crawled out from underneath the table, and stood, back cracking as she straightened. She rubbed her eyes as she yawned, and rolled her head in a circle, stretching her neck a little. She was very stiff from her long time in that cramped space. Picking up another random book, a thick one that had functioned as a pillow, she began to weave her way through to the entrance of the archives. It didn't take long before a group of students who'd been doing some group study project or something started to leave. She quickly darted just Infront of the group so they were blocking line of sight and made her way out. 

And before long she was reintroduced with the sad reality that the outside world was not anywhere near as cozy or as warm as the archives. Holding the large book close to her chest she begrudgingly began the treck to her rooms, one step at a time. There was evidence of snowball fights on the way, something that she hadn't done in some time surprisingly. But for now she was looking forward to napping in a bed instead of a shelf so she hurried on. Besides, if she dropped the book she was holding and it got damaged from the moisture, the stakes on her hide and seek shenanigans would become a lot higher all of a sudden. She tightened her grip on it and continued on her way 

[xinoehp512]

3 hours ago, Young Bard said:

(Apologies to Xino for some godmodding with your character, but I'm limited by having to get the apology written this turn if I don't want a massive hike in tuition fees, and timezone differences/general busyness mean it's difficult for us to RP together. Otherwise, I'd have loved to have some joint RP with you.)

If she could get over to Imre, she'd be safe - she'd head to her inn, get a fresh change of clothes, hide the notebook somewhere secure, and nobody would be able to trace the fire back to her. She'd miss a couple classes, but that was better than being expelled.

She was crossing the bridge across the river when she saw a young man was approaching her.

"Excuse me, are you Nethwyl?"

He had a kind of grin on his face, that meant I'm being nice now, but don't make any sudden moves.

"Would you come with me? There are a few people that want to ask you some questions."

Nethwyl smiled awkwardly, thinking quickly. "I'd really rather head to my inn first, drop a couple things off -"

"They were very insistent."

He knew. And if they opened her bag, they'd have all the evidence they needed to expel her. But she didn't have a choice.

"I'll be one moment." She slowly walked back over the bridge, the ice-cold river below swirling and eddying past beneath her... River...

As she got to the edge of the bridge, where... what was his name - Malm? Marm? Maern, that was it - was waiting for her, she slowly walked a couple steps forward and passed him. And before he could react, she 'tripped', tumbling down the riverbank into the icy waters.

Merciful Tehlu, the water was cold. As the cold slowly seep into her bones, Nethwyl's arms involuntarily spasmed, but that only served to splash even more water over her. As she was carried downriver, the bridge passed above her, and she could barely see Maern racing to the other side to try and haul her out. Before she could think twice about the action, she quickly took a deep breath, and dunked her entire body under the water - please, let that be enough to get the smell of smoke off of me. I don't want to have done this for nothing.

Sunlight poked through as she reached the other side of the bridge - Maern had managed to grab a vine growing from the side of the bridge and threw it out to her, trying to get her to grab on. Fingers already going slightly numb even from her brief dunk, she clamped on, willing herself not to release the grip as Maern slowly pulled her in.

After what felt like an eternity, she belly-flopped onto the riverbank, not bothering to crawl any further away, or do anything but lie there. Maern, for his part, grabbed her backpack and started rifling through it. Rude. He found her notebook, opened it, before throwing it down in disgust. And Nethwyl could see, even from where she was lying, that her crisp, clean handwriting was gone. The only thing left were completely illegible splotches of ink.

 That is not at all what my character would do. He's looking for her in order to ask her about her escape from her attacker. And he's most definitely not trying to get her to other people for questioning. He doesn't even suspect her at all, in fact. So I'm going to have to assume that it's a NPC that she's misremembering the name of.  

You haven't put in your public apology yet, @Young Bard, so I assume you'll be able to get on before the cycle ends? Never mind, I just saw it... Oh, well- I think we can make it work. Anyways, if you need to godmod Maern, he's going to primarily try and ask her questions about the person who attacked her, to see if he can get an identity on them. He'll probably also ask her about the fire (although not in a direct/accusatory way; just out of puzzlement/curiosity.)

----

Maern came within eyeshot of the bridge at the exact moment that Nethwyl fell from its pinnacle into the icy deep waters below. He let out a gasp and started running over, sudden terrifying thoughts surging through his head- she's been attacked before, hasn't she? Might she be attacked again? and arrived just as the bystander pulled her out with a vine and started rifling through her stuff.

"Hey!" he called out, slowing to a stop. "Are you alright?" Nethwyl looked up at him, but seemed too drained to respond. "And you," he said, turning to the other person with suspicion in his eyes, "what do you think you're doing?"

The potential skindancer sniffed and held out the ruined notebook towards Maern. "She's suspected for setting library fire. We thought there might be evidence in her bag, but if there was..." He shook his head in disgust. "Well, it's gone now. Her little jaunt in the river destroyed anything incriminating that might have been written in here." He shot a look at her laced with an edge of malice, as if he suspected she'd done exactly that.

Maern opened his mouth, then frowned, looking between both Nethwyl and- well, he supposed it must be an investigator. She didn't contradict the man's story- so he most likely hadn't pushed her in. So, not a skindancer, thought Maern, feeling a bit silly.

Taking a look at Nethwyl's bedraggled appearance and noticing a few other investigators making their way towards the scene, he decided that now was probably not a good time to ask her about her attacker. He mumbled something under his breath and left, deciding to try and find her at a later date.

@Young Bard

----

14 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Wait, so you know Bard told a lie in turn 2.2?

Not sure how to parse this?  I'll presume you mean that the lie was in 2.2. I learned about it this cycle. 

13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Linguistic analysis covers all the posts made in a turn, and any PMs. Do you have or intercept any PMs with Bard in turn 2.2?

I did not.

13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Could be a lie if Bard specifically told the GMs whether or not Nethwyl set the fires, which was presumably not the case. Other than the unlikely lies of not realising it was May, and claiming copper chloride turns flames blue when it's specifically copper(I) chloride that does so, other potential lies would be the reads list.

4 hours ago, Elkanah said:

Maybe I can help with this. You see, I know something Bard lied about. I was happy for him to to take the blame, too. After all, my action the turn before was to frame someone. Kendel set the fire. The action was specifically to set a fire in the archives and frame Burnt. I figured it would make for some fun role play and not come to much. Then Young Bard took the fall for it and that was even easier. If the fact he lied last month is the determining factor in lynching him, here is your explanation. If the possible wounded gazelle gambit is the reason we are lynching him, I do not think the science bears that out either. If low activity is the reason we expel him (below the radar or otherwise), I can see an argument. If we are expelling him for being the first El'The, I have argued we do this twice already. If we are voting on him for putting two votes on me... Ah screw it. Bard Bard.

More to come

 

Bard never actually said that Nethwyl set the fires, only implied that it might be the case.

 

13 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

@little wilson @Elbereth If someone says something in RP that is a lie, and is in no way game related, will that come up as a lie with this ability?

5 hours ago, STINK said:

Guess it's time to look back at Bard's posts with a very fine comb eh? Though I'm kinda late to that since I finally got a good nights sleep (but then it lasted 12 hours so was it really that good? Idk how sleep works) but before I do that just a quick thing I noticed while reading the thread that I wanted to comment on but forgot to hit quote on.

'Twas something along the lines of 'I'm glad people are analysing older cycles for why's and the how's etc etc' sorry if I didn't get it right exactly but you get the gist and hopefully you all know the post I'm on about because you are all reading this thread as well right? Anyways, I would actually kinda disagree with this. If anything, now that I think about it I'd kinda be disinclined to trust people doing this. Since really Term 1 didn't really have anything happen in it right? It's similar to an extended D1-Lynch in that most people are just trying to unlock some actions to start doing stuff and the RP was there for tuition reduction. I wouldn't get anything of worth from it and sure I could probably look at it and start doing word volleys at people that sounds rational with this and that but realistically it'd be making a mountain out of a tiny little bump in the game's history. Gotta look at the more recent stuff imo. Anyways that's actual game talk from Stink whoa something must be going on. To Bard!

Luckily there's only 3 posts to look through with the hyper-focus of the Xino said he's lying (interesting to me that I saw no-one bringing up that maybe Xino is the one lying in this 'he-said-she-said' but who am I to say) and I'll try to ignore the fluff that the GM's hopefully ignored like where he says he forgot it was May and maybe he didn't and it's a big conspiracy etc etc

Bard First Post: Yeah looks like this is the thing that set everyone off and can't say I disagree tbh, only other option really is if he was secretly in PMs panicking about the insanity being not Skindancers but thats like a 0.001% chance and no-ones confirmed that happening so gotta go with the other option. That's probability, y'all

Bard Second Post: Claims in RP to be doing Rhetoric and Logic. With the whole RP being lies counting thing, could be that which set it off unless anyone can confirm that he is in fact doing Rhetoric and Logic. If not, that's a second option and all that I could really see from this.

Bard Third Post: Again, an option is always that his reads in thread are different from his PM ones in which case thats a lie, but would need someone to confirm that. Purely thread-wise, could be the part where he's not suspicious of anyone yet where if I was a GM reading that in the 4th month, I'd be really tempted to say that as a lie if they weren't inactive cause surely everyone has suspicions by now right? But that could also be a PM thing which makes it hard to know, Bard could have PM'd someone saying they really don't like X and then in thread don't bring up X and bam now he's lying in thread.

So TL;DR (even though it's not that long):

1. First Post lying means basically skindancer.

2. Second Post lying means not doing R&L despite claiming to.

3.Third Post lying means his public reads are different from private reads.

In terms of what I think happened here? I'm tempted to say it's just the second post that got him in, cause unless anyone's publicly claimed where they are going yet then everyone is gonna be lying about that when it's hinted at in thread. Unless I've missed something and Xino gets specifically pointed at the post/PM(?) where the target was lying. 

Wow this post has gotten long I just wanted to flex my brain but yeah enjoy that word volley peeps I'm gonna drink some tea which is a stereotype but it's true.

And I wanted to RP smh

I can barely understand this, sorry. XP The main comments I have are that I missed the whole 'RP counts for Linguistic Analysis' thing and that I think that that only applies to RP that is obviously meant to say something game-related (to be definite about it, only RP that also counts for game-related discussion). Since an RP character could be reasonably expected to potentially have any number of differences when compared to the RP'ers mechanical situation, it wouldn't make sense to call it 'lying'.

[STINK]

9 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I can barely understand this, sorry.

That's fine I put the TL;DR in 'cause I barely read long posts

[Furamirionind]

And yet again I thought the cycle was ending this hour, forgetting it's not for another 4 hours xD

[xinoehp512]

2 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Nethwyl climbed the podium for the second time in 3 terms to give her public apology. She'd been insanely lucky - a few of the masters seemed to want her expelled anyway, evidence be damned, but at the end of the day she'd had enough plausible deniability to just about get away with it. As a compromise, they'd forced her to give a public apology for missing class, and for 'careless behaviour endangering the safety of other students'. Nethwyl was fairly sure that that last one was made up, but was frankly too exhausted by this point to argue.

She looked at the note in front of her. "To all the students at the University, I apologise for my Undignified Mischief over the past few days. I missed class, which is inappropriate behaviour for a student of the Arcanum. This is doubly true given my recent elevation to the rank of El'the, meaning it is my responsibility to be a model pupil for our more junior students. I will endeavour to be more consistent with showing up to class, and with my studies more generally, in future."

"I also apologise for being careless in where I was walking. This caused me to slip and fall into the river, forcing my good friend Maern" with that, she shone a forced smile at Maern out in the crowd "to have to try to rescue me, at some risk to himself. I will be more careful not to endanger myself or my fellow students like that again."

With that, Nethwyl folded the note and stepped down from the podium. She hoped that would be the last time she was up there, but frankly, she doubted it - most of the Masters seemed to have it out for her now - she'd have to make sure not to get caught with a toe out of line from here on out.

Maern watched the proceedings with curiosity and not entirely without a twist of uneasiness and uncertainty. It looked like they hadn't accused her of the crime that they'd presumably originally taken her in for questioning about, which seemed... if not strange, at least interesting. It was likely because of lack of anything but circumstantial evidence- which was the wise decision, to be sure (innocent until proven guilty, after all.) The other charges she'd been brought up on seemed to be almost forced, like the Masters were trying to find something that they could blame her for. And Maern had to admit, it did seem oddly coincidental that an accident would happen that would completely remove all evidence that she may or may not have done something.

She was attacked, though, he thought to himself. She not a skindancer. ...Right?

He pushed his uneasiness down as Nethwyl finshed her apology and stepped down from the platform. "Hey," he called after her. "Would you mind if I ask you a few questions?"

------

@Young Bard I'll repeat myself just in case.  

37 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Anyways, if you need to godmod Maern, he's going to primarily try and ask her questions about the person who attacked her, to see if he can get an identity on them. He'll probably also ask her about the fire (although not in a direct/accusatory way; just out of puzzlement/curiosity.)

I don't think I'll change my vote this cycle, but I might as well continue with my analysis of last turn. I don't want to get too far behind, after all, and I have quite a bit of thread left to catch up on.  

From Araris:

Quote

Well, I wasn't able to spend too much time looking over things this cycle. However, it looks like Lopen is trying to spread the votes, which puts less pressure on the people we are focusing on. While Fura disagrees with all the votes on Lopen, I agree with everything else that Fura has said.

Lopen put votes on GreenRover and Devotary- both of which seemed more like poke votes than suspicion votes. This vote and it's reasoning aligns with Araris's previous motivations, which is a point in his favor. I myself was guilty of the same crime that Lopen was accused of, admittedly, even if my votes were more based in suspicion. Regardless, I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate that concentrating our votes is key. This isn't like a normal game; in order for the lynch to really have an effect, we either need to have very few people voted on, a ton of votes on the candidates up for lynch, or both at the same time. Fura makes some excellent points about expulsion that I find myself agreeing with;

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Sorry, I just woke up. Still deciding who to put my votes on, but I'm pretty sure Sibler is village at this point.

Silber Silber

Edit

While I'll apologize to Bard for taking away his chance at becoming a Master, I just went back over the rules, and I think expelling him shouldn't be too big of a deal for Village Bard. He will still be able to talk in thread, do things in Imre, and use actions on people not attending the University. Also, if we expelled every player in the game, the village would win. So we shouldn't shy away from expelling people.

Bard (14): Hael, Elandera, Elkanah, Elkanah, Straw, Straw, Xino, Xino, Coda, Coda, Araris, Devotary, Fura, Fura
Coda (5): DeTess, DeTess, Rath, Lopen, Lopen
Araris (2): Karnage, Karnage
DeTess (2): Silber, Araris
Elkanah (2): Bard, Bard
Burnt (1): Kynedath
Fura (1): Silber
Xino (1): Elandera

However even with all these votes, there is still a somewhat reasonable chance that Bard won't get expelled.

Bard Bard

The vote count looks better than it did last cycle; more votes on the top candidates, less total spread. There is definite incentive for skindancers to avoid voting on their teammate(s) if they can avoid it.

[CadCom]

Hmmm. After rereading about expulsion it isnt really as bad as I thought. But what it does do is gives the elims a target to kill instead of just making someone go insane. But they could also try killing the people that have gone insane, so it seems like they are going for a different strategy than that. So I guess I understand that since they're Elthe, they would be fine. There would be less people that they can target, at least for a few rounds, but that isnt too bad. So I guess I dont hate the idea of expelling someone. 

However, with 14 votes(at last count) and a pretty high chance of them receiving more votes from the NPC masters, I'd say theres a pretty good chance they're going to be expelled, so I'll look elsewhere. 

I've had a small suspicion of Fura for a few turns. But havent acted on it yet, but I'll do that now fura I dont have a ton of time to quantify that suspicion at this point, so I'll leave it just there for now, and try to come back to this. 

And I'm debating between voting for someone who already has votes to make things happen and placing a vote on Straw, which is who my original vote was for last cycle. Something still bothers me about him wanting to spread out the votes. For now, I think I'll leave it and see if I have any more time to put another vote down for someone else. 

[Furamirionind]

4 minutes ago, CadCom said:

I've had a small suspicion of Fura for a few turns. But havent acted on it yet, but I'll do that now fura I dont have a ton of time to quantify that suspicion at this point, so I'll leave it just there for now, and try to come back to this. 

Is this a token vote that doesn't have much meaning, or are you voting on a suspicion? As you still have 1 unused vote, if it is the latter, you should be putting both on me. : P

[STINK]

I can demonstrate how that would appear

Fura, Fura

:P

[Straw]

1 hour ago, CadCom said:

And I'm debating between voting for someone who already has votes to make things happen and placing a vote on Straw, which is who my original vote was for last cycle. Something still bothers me about him wanting to spread out the votes. For now, I think I'll leave it and see if I have any more time to put another vote down for someone else. 

Ironically, that would be spreading out the votes, which is the very thing you were bothered about. 

[Furamirionind]

39 minutes ago, STINK said:

I can demonstrate how that would appear

Fura, Fura

RIP xD

[Straw]

Straw had heard that some student, Nethwyl, had been severely injured, but survived. Oddly, Nethwyl had been raised to El'the in the same month. Maybe their Master liked that kind of crazy stuff? Straw had heard that some of the Masters for the more magical fields were like that. It'd make sense, given how they were almost insane already. Straw could remember the Master Namer bursting into an Arithmetics classroom and threatening them. Or maybe she had been warning them? Maybe both. Regardless, Straw would make sure to watch out around her and the other magical Masters. You never knew when one of them would push you off a rooftop or something like that.

Anyway, apparently some student, Maern, found out that Nethwyl had been lying about something last month. No one really knew what Nethwyl had been lying about, but it was probably something bad. Hordes of students, including Straw, had gathered to lodge complaints about Nethwyl's bad behavior. After all, lying shouldn't be acceptable at the University. Maybe Nethwyl would even turn out to be one of those evil Skindancers that were driving people insane. They seemed like the sort of beings that would be interested in going into magical fields, as those tended to be the most destructive as well.

[Walin]

Sorry I haven't been active this turn. Uh, I got nothing to say, really. I have a bit of a village read on Xineohp, DeTess, and Fura, and neutral reads on everyone else (except Bard, because he's got a lot of votes and I think a bandwagon on cycle 3 is probably well justified? Also WGG's are good to check for; sorry Bard if it's not one, but we gotta stay safe)--I've got no more comments, and no time to make them anyway.

------

Lin Wa had eaten a banana. It tasted good. That didn't help his mood. He had written down all he needed to know, but he had misplaced his notebooks, so they were of no use to him! (aka I haven't taken any notes)

[little wilson]

The month is over! Month 2 will begin in roughly 4 hours!

[little wilson]

Term 3 Month 2 - I Dreamed a Dream

Evelyn Bryen stood proudly in front of the Masters. It was finally time - Rowan, the noble she’d been working with, had somehow found the pull to get her a private audience to present her ideas. Being a noble must be nice. 

“So you see, if you just raised your prices on the nobles who can easily afford the expense, you could maintain your current budget but still admit more students based on merit rather than merely who has money,” she finished, gesturing at the graph she held. 

She was met with stony silence, rather than the applause she’d imagined. Couldn’t they see how right she was? 

“Just to be clear,” the Master LInguist said slowly. “You are recommending that we admit fewer nobles, who are by far the most powerful and influential section of our students, and charge them ridiculously high prices in order to admit a few more commoners. Do you want the University to close?”

“What? N-no,” Evelyn stammered. “This would make the University better, can’t you see? A haven of learning as it’s meant to be, not just a place where nobles send their layabout sons and daughters! Here, if you want to read our paper, it has the arithmetics laid out in detail...”

“You think the University isn’t a haven of learning? Girl, what rock have you been living under - around you are the best minds for a hundred miles!” 

“Are you in your right mind?” the Master Physicker added, with a concerned look. “These ideas of yours seem clearly to be delusions, in my medical opinion. Perhaps you should take a stay in the Crockery for a while?”

Evelyn stared, mouth agape. “But- of course I’m sane! You can’t send me to the Crockery - this is - you’re deliberately silencing me for your own benefit!”

“Yes, I quite agree,” the Master Sympathist said to the Master Physicker, ignoring her. “Poor girl. I do hope she’ll come to her senses soon.”

“You can’t do this!” Evelyn screamed as two guards came up behind her, taking her arms. “This is the deepest injustice - I will see that you’re exposed for who you are, I vow it!” The Masters watched her be dragged away, shaking their heads sadly. 

Evelyn screamed all the way to the Crockery, but no one listened. No one ever would again.

---

Evelyn Bryen (DeTess) went insane!

Nethwyl Nox (Bard) was brought on the Horns and found guilty of Conduct Unbecoming a Member of the Arcanum! She was expelled!
Catalan (Coda) was brought on the Horns and found guilty of Undignified Mischief!
Lyoan (Fura) was brought on the Horns and found guilty of Undignified Mischief!
Maern (Xino) was brought on the Horns, but the charges were dropped!

These students were elevated: Seoras (Haelbarde), Kendel (Elkanah), Maern (Xino), Catalan (Coda), Lasko Veitch (Karnage), Amila Tays (Zillah), Arael Solon (Araris), Lin Wa (Walin), Leo (Lopen).

Term 3 Month 2 has begun! This turn will end May 11th, at 4:00 PM, PDT. Remember to get your lodging orders in!

Edited May 22, 2020 by Elbereth

[Karnage]

Thank goodness, I got elevated this turn. Does anybody have an update on who has been elevated to what position? Also, DeTess, ohh man! My guess is that they went after you because you are pretty active and influential. Also, Bard was expelled, but we don't get anything from that other that the possibility that they were an elim. 

[Haelbarde]

Want to get in an early post because I've been missing the player lists with mentions that we got a few turns ago, so I'm going to copy it in now.

Player List
1. @Haelbarde - Seòras (Edema Ruh)
2. @Elandera - Athdara, alchemist (Noble)
3. @Burnt Spaghetti - Bryn Aria (Commoner)
4. @DeTess - Evelyn Bryen (Commoner) Insane
5. @Elkanah (Edema Ruh)
6. @Straw - Straw (Commoner)
7. @xinoehp512 - Maern (Commoner)
8. @Lord_Silberfarben - Lord Silberfarben (Commoner)
9. @Coda - Catalan, namer (Noble)
10. @Karnage - Lasko Veitch (Noble)
11. @Hemalurgic Headshot - Onur Setyn (Noble) Insane
12. @StrikerEZ - Ryykal Ladzo (Edema Ruh) Insane
13. @Lumgol - Caia Irèn (Noble) Insane
14. @Experience - Shard (Commoner)
15. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Vol, paranoid alchemist (Noble)
16. @CadCom - Cadaci (Edema Ruh)
17. @Sart - Sagaer Murtoy, accompanied by a child (Commoner) Insane
18. @Furamirionind (Edema Ruh)
19. @Zillah  - Amila Tays (Commoner)
20. @Araris Valerian - Arael Solon (Noble)
21. @Rathmaskal - Rath (Commoner)
22.  @STINK - Ugfal the Three-Handed, with only two hands (Commoner)
23. @Kynedath - Traelynn Weeks, likes beets (Edema Ruh)
24. @Walin - Lin Wa (Commoner)
25. @GreenRover - Knighter Nune (Noble)
26. @Young Bard - Nethwyl Nox, pyromaniac (Commoner) Expelled
27. @TheMightyLopen - Leo (Noble)

---

Also, based on Fura's work from last cycle, here's the current state of elevations:

Unranked (Rank 0)
Athdara, alchemist (Noble), Vol, paranoid alchemist (Noble), Cadaci (Edema Ruh), Furamirionind (Edemah Ruh)

E’lir (Rank 1)
Straw Altiora (Straw), Ugfal the Three-Handed (Stink), Rath, Traelynn Weeks (Kynedath), Knighter Nune (Rover), Lasko Veitch (Karnage)

Re’lar (Rank 2)
Bryn Aria (Burnt Spaghetti), Evelyn Bryen (DeTess), Lord Silberfarben, Seoras (Haelbarde), Kendel (Elkanah), Catalan (Coda), Amila Tays (Zillah), Arael Solon (Araris), Leo (Lopen)

El’the (Rank 3)
Shard (Experience), Nethwyl Nox (Bard), Maern (Xino), Lin Wa (Walin)

Edited May 10, 2020 by Haelbarde
Added unranked players

[Coffeecat]

Ok...

I think DeTess was not a SkinDancer...

 

sorry about that.

Although they could have gone insane of natural causes, but not likely.

[Furamirionind]

I'm now 99% certain Silberfarben is village. Silber had a solid suspicion that only DeTess and I contested. I was actually expecting there to be an elim push for either DeTess or myself (probably DeTess though) to be lynched this turn based off of that. However, with DeTess going insane, that would hurt that effort a bit. I don't think Silber would give up an opportunity like that. I'm not explaining this great, but hopefully what I'm saying makes sense. Lol

Also, thank you Hael for posting the player list. I've had to keep going back to the initial thread for it. xD
Well, I haven't done a player by player reads list yet, which I see as somewhat of an oversight by me. So here it goes. I'm not going to do these in any specific order. I'm basically just going to do those I find easiest first to get something out, and then I'll move on.

Spoiler

(inserting after finishing... I ended up just going after the nobles... But after Finishing Elandera (who I did last. Lol) I ran out of energy... So I'll come back to Coda And Devotary who I haven't done yet.

Elandera
Started by defending nobles very adamently. Though I think that's NAI for the first cycle of the game.

Quote

Do you really want four nobles with their income only able to work in Imre from the start? Can you imagine the kind of power they'd accrue when they don't have to split attention between the University studies and Imre?

It might just be me here, but this sentence doesn't seem to be coming from the perspective of a noble. Why would anyone fear the Nobles in Imre? What kind of power would they have? They could kill people, they could defend themselves, and they could make contracts. However they wouldn't have any actions, couldn't vote, or PM most players. If I was a noble, that's not personally how I'd like to play the game, but I wouldn't fear that. A bit suspicious IMO.

 

This post is interesting. Starts going through Lopen's posts, and makes quite a few good points about Xino. However it is interesting that she just jumps to Xino without considering Bard at all. Most of the thread did the opposite, jumping on Bard and considering Xino later. She refers to the lie as "Bard's apparent lie", Then does analysis to put a reasonable suspicion on Xino, and doesn't talk about Bard at all, or say/imply she will look into Bard at all.
This is all kind of circumstantial, but what I find really suspicious is that she voted on Xino and Bard. In what universe are, at this point, Xino and Bard both elims? I could maybe see some elim compositions trying a gambit like this, but the likelihood is only worth considering once both flip good in my opinion.

tl:dr - This has all the elements of hedging on a perceived lost lynch. Attacking the accuser, ignoring the "lynchee", voting on Bard, and even (for this game) spreading out the votes.

Karnage - Village
While most of the content isn't really AI, they just sound super villager-y. With all the questions and pings in thread as well, I'm inclined to think they are village. They were my strongest village read for a while, mostly just because of this.

Araris - Strong Village
I don't believe I've ever caught Araris when he has been an elim or neutral or whatever... But here it goes.
In turn 2.1, Araris basically creates the movement for in-thread interactions and voting to become more useful for the village. This seems very villager-y to me... Though the game is also more fun as an elim when people are trying to find you, so that's not something that should clear him necessarily. However, what I think does a lot more to clear him, is him saying "I wanted to wait and see who would suggest that we continue spreading votes out.". While this might normally be a bad thing, if an elim was trying to do this, I think they would do this at the beginning of the cycle because they are either doing this to make the game more fun, or because an elim isn't getting elevated in a certain field and they want to narrow down the competition. Either way, they want the thread Expelling people ASAP. This line suggests that Araris considered saying this at the beginning of the turn and had the opportunity, yet didn't for the sake of information. This is super villager-y. 
I'm going to stop looking into Araris' posts because this alone has me convinced. However if I get stuck later, I might come back to him if I'm also convinced of everyone else.
 

@GreenRover - Slight elim? Maybe?
Didn't post at all last turn. The previous post was an RP vote against Karnage, pretty meaningless imo...
The post before that was interesting though, in turn 1.2

Quote

To me, three turns is long enough to be cleared reasonably villager (barring the aid of fellow Skinwalkers)

This line I find specifically interesting. First, I'm not sure what you are saying when you say three turns is long enough to become semi-cleared. If that was the case, the game would likely be just about over now : P. However I may be misunderstanding, so please clarify if you wouldn't mind. =)
The thing I find interesting is your use of the term "fellow Skinwalkers". Also, I will ask that no one responds to this prompt for GreenRover. I fully believe they are capable of responding themselves. *Looks at Straw* : P

Bard
Is expelled, so we can kind of not worry about him being an elim for a while. If he is one, he can still technically kill anyone else expelled or not in the University... However, it's more beneficial to analyse those inside the University. If something else happens people think garners suspicion on Bard, they could have him assassinated to see a flip, though I don't think that's needed quite yet.

Lopen - Village
While I had some suspicions on Lopen early on, since then Lopen has been putting a lot of effort into solving the game, has come up with suspicions and seems to be having a fairly village mindset. I'm not going to do this right now, but Lopen is probably the one person in the game almost (if not everyone) in the game has given thoughts on. Going through and following what people are saying about Lopen at what times will probably, at this point, be a better way of analysing him than actually looking at his own posts.

 

Summary of my post: I'm going to put both votes on Elandera. = )

Elandera, Elandera

[Elandera]

20 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

It might just be me here, but this sentence doesn't seem to be coming from the perspective of a noble. Why would anyone fear the Nobles in Imre? What kind of power would they have? They could kill people, they could defend themselves, and they could make contracts. However they wouldn't have any actions, couldn't vote, or PM most players. If I was a noble, that's not personally how I'd like to play the game, but I wouldn't fear that. A bit suspicious IMO.

Part of it is the unlimited resources of being in Imre. While they can't take University actions, they can find plenty of ways to spend their time and money. Nobles have an excess of money that could lead to getting bodyguards, assassins, and items at the apothecary. If that happened too early, it could help them control a lot of the game. I believe someone else mentioned a past game where expelled skindancers still wreaked havoc from Imre. 

24 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

This is all kind of circumstantial, but what I find really suspicious is that she voted on Xino and Bard. In what universe are, at this point, Xino and Bard both elims? I could maybe see some elim compositions trying a gambit like this, but the likelihood is only worth considering once both flip good in my opinion.

The timing was rather unfortunate. I had started my analysis and found several odd things about Xino before he ever posted. I was at work, though, so I kept getting interrupted. Xino posted before I finished, so I felt I needed to respond to his claims. I did not have the time or ability to return to analysis, and Bard had few posts D1 and none which stood out to me as suspicious. 

I voted on both because I couldn't ignore my suspicions of Xino, but I also couldn't ignore the claim of a potential lie that could mean Skindancer. I still don't trust Xino, and probably won't until we see Bard's alignment.

Speaking of which, can someone please kill Bard?

[Elbereth]

The writeup for Term 3, Month 1 has been edited in! The one for this turn will come later, since the last took ages (and also I had an unexpected nap earlier, which didn't help). Enjoy! 

[Burnt Spaghetti]

(game discussion later, for now, rp)

Bryn blinked open her eyes blearily. ugh, why is it day already… . Because she'd napped earlier in the day previously, she hadn't been sleepy when it had actually gotten late so she had instead stayed up reading one of the books she'd taken home, and had been taking notes until apparently falling asleep. She rubbed her eyes absently as she pulled herself up onto her elbows. As her hand drew away from her face, she froze. Black ink was smudged all over it.

"Uh oh"

She jolted up straight, pushing her chair away from the desk. Her once clean and tidy study desk was now covered with patches of a mostly dried inky blackness.

"Ooh no nono nopedy nope nuhuh noooo this be bad!"

Her hand darted to the ink pot, righting it and capping it off, for what good that was worth. The book she'd been reading had chapters deep black stains taking up around a 6th of the pages. The paper she'd been writing on was a completely lost cause. this is why you actually sleep at sensible hours Byrn and don't stay up all night studying you idiot! My teacher is going to kill me when they find out I ruined this book!. She rushed to clear things off the table and grabbed a cloth to try clean what she could. She paused to throw her long hair into a braid to stop it getting in the way, only to find her dismay multiplied when she felt the crust and oily signs of the ink in her hair. Desk abandoned, she sprinted to the washroom.

Once there she took a minute to just take in her appearance. Ink was smeared on her skin where she'd rubbed it. That wasn't too bad. But her hair....  the right side of her head had a large dark stain on the front section. It was patchy. Mostly focused on the ends and middle of the length of hair.  With a long exale she began the process of trying to clean up, first washing her face and hands before starting work on her hair.

The first rinse just seemed to spread it, but after a few rinses the black had been reduced significantly. Her usually bright hair was still definitely holding some darker streaks, but it wasn't as bad as the solid black was. She worried that she was going to need something more to get this out. She would have to make a trip to the Imre asap. She would go immediately there but classes would be starting soon so she needed to rush. Biting her lip she let out a frustrated sigh and rushed back to her room to gather her things, leaving the book and notes and table as is- would be a job for later- and raced off to class, shoving a piece of bread in her mouth on the way, hair still dripping and slightly stained. 

Her day was off to a rough start. And it was cold.

[Guest Coda]

Catalan stood in front of his fellow students, holding his speech in his hands. He still thought this was unreasonable, but alas, he would be in worse trouble with the Masters if he didn't apologize. It was terribly embarrassing to stand before the people who had watched him get lashings and apologize, which was far below his station, but he had to. The words burned as he spoke them, but he forced his urge to spew vitriol and read the words on the page.

"I hereby apologize to Leo for suspecting him of being a skindancer unreasonably. This was incredibly undignified and not an action that befits my status as a Re'Lar. This will not happen again."

As he walked off the podium, he struggled not to frown. Betraying his disgust with the whole charade would not help his tenuous situation at the University. He couldn't afford to rant about how he hated the prejudice of the Masters. His family would be appalled, and might withdraw him from the University. No, that simply wouldn't do.

Edited May 10, 2020 by Coda
Typo

[Haelbarde]

Seoras was a morning person. Unfortunately, it did making him a morning class person. He really did not enjoy morning classes. For some reason, the obligation of making a class on time sapped all motivation for early rising. 

With a sigh, he finally dragged himself up to face the day. It was cold. Why was it still cold... He really missed the warmer weather he'd had back home. 

Eventually pulling together everything he needed, throwing down some food, he checked the time. 

Eh.

He probably still had time to get to the university before class started.

If he was quick.

...

And had left a few minutes ago.

He hurried out.

---

As he tried to keep moving to keep warm as he shivered under the not thick enough coat, he spotted another student who seemed to be running behind as well. He ran to catch up, recognising Bryn in her surprising fancy coat as he got closer. As he approached, he noted the streaks in her dripping wet hair that was in danger of freezing in the bitter morning breeze. He bumped her with his shoulder. 

"Hey!" He glanced at her hair. "Trying out a new look with your hair I see."

@Burnt Spaghetti

[xinoehp512]

(This RP post is going to be a little out of order chronologically.)

Taking a look at Nethwyl's bedraggled appearance and noticing a few other investigators making their way towards the scene, he decided that now was probably not a good time to ask her about her attacker. He mumbled something under his breath and left, deciding to try and find her at a later date.

But quick as he was, he wasn’t quick enough. “Hey,” called one of the investigators in a fake-jovial tone that set Maern’s teeth on edge. “Is that our little pretend investigator, here at the scene of the crime? I wonder if he found anything useful, huh?” He let out a mocking laugh that showed just how likely he thought that was.

Maern gritted his teeth and forced himself not to respond.

“Hey,” said the investigator with a sneer.. “Don’t turn your back on me, Maner. Didn’t you hear my question?”

“It’s Maern,” he mumbled, quickening his pace and trying to slip by. “And no, I didn’t find anything.”

“Hey,” said the investigator with a more sinister tone, stepping in front of him and blocking his path. “I didn’t say you could leave.”

Maern looked him straight in the eyes. No fear. “I didn’t know I needed to ask your permission.”

-----

I've being doing it for a few cycles, might as well continue. Posts by player, per cycle:

Player Post count	Status	Total	1.1	1.2	2.1	2.2
@Haelbarde(Edema Ruh)	Ruh	26	3	12	3	4	4
@Elandera (Noble)	Noble	18	8	2	2	4	2
@Burnt Spaghett(Commoner)	Commoner	31	7	7	5	8	4
@DeTess(Commoner)	Commoner	29	7	3	8	4	7
@Elkanah (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	33	12	5	5	2	9
@Straw(Commoner)	Commoner	46	10	4	13	14	5
@xinoehp512 (Commoner)	Commoner	28	8	5	5	5	5
@Lord_Silberfarben(Commoner)	Commoner	25	8	2	3	6	6
@Coda (Noble)	Noble	14	3	1	1	2	7
@Karnage (Noble)	Noble	21	6	3	5	4	3
@Hemalurgic Headshot (Noble)	Noble	2	2	Insane	Insane	Insane	Insane
@StrikerEZ (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	13	5	3	2	3	Insane
@Lumgol (Noble)	Noble	5	2	0	3	Insane	Insane
@Experience (Commoner)	Commoner	12	3	2	1	2	4
@Devotary of Spontaneity (Noble)	Noble	20	7	4	3	3	3
@CadCom (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	11	2	0	1	5	3
@Sart (Commoner)	Commoner	3	1	2	Insane	Insane	Insane
@Furamirionind (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	29	4	2	4	8	11
@Zillah (Commoner)	Commoner	11	4	3	1	2	1
@Araris Valerian (Noble)	Noble	12	2	1	4	4	1
@Rathmaskal(Commoner)	Commoner	5	1	0	1	1	2
@STINK (Commoner)	Commoner	16	1	3	2	5	5
@Kynedath (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	12	4	4	0	3	1
@Walin (Commoner)	Commoner	6	1	1	1	2	1
@GreenRover (Noble)	Noble	3	1	1	1	0
@Young Bard (Commoner)	Commoner	13	0	1	3	3	6
@TheMightyLopen (Noble)	Noble	18	6	3	3	3	3
		Total	118	74	80	97	93
		Average	4.37037037	2.846153846	3.2	4.041666667	4.227272727
		Nobles	37	15	22	20	19
		Average	4.111111111	1.875	2.75	2.857142857	3.166666667
		Commoners	51	33	43	52	46
		Average	4.25	2.75	3.909090909	4.727272727	4.181818182
		Edema Ruh	30	26	15	25	28
		Average	5	4.333333333	2.5	4.166666667	5.6

The total posts comes out to only 4 less than the previous cycle, so it would seem that activity is remaining relatively constant. This poses sort of a problem for me; my in-depth analysis skills were only enough to get through a few votes on one person in the span of a single cycle. If I want to avoid being stalled on a single cycle for the entire game, I'm going to need to do more sparse analysis.  There's a lot to unpack last cycle that I didn't get to (pretty much anything that didn't have to do with Bard, in fact). I have received information that Bard, despite being apparently open to Linguistic Analysis, lied again in the past turn (3.1). Given this, I think that chances are high that Bard is a skindancer; it was a wise move to move to expel Bard, especially given that he was already an El'the.

I also think that it would be nice if we could get a kill in on Bard, for confirmation, although I would be careful of the elim’s protection role. Since no one has come forward to claim to be the person who protected Bard, it’s probably safest to assume that they’re probably not on the village’s side, for now.