Long Game 65: Dancing through Life

[Lumgol]

Darn, I was hoping to get elevated  

So I forgot to say this last turn (and people may have mentioned it before) but in probability terms, you have a slightly higher chance of being elevated if you distribute EP into many fields.

Let's say that there is a total of 10 EP filed into Alchemy and 10 into Naming, not including whatever you file. (picking 2 fields at random here)

You, aka Hypothetical Audience Person™, would enjoy being elevated in either of those fields about equally. You also happen to have 6 EP to file (to make the math a bit simpler, instead of 5).

If you file all of your EP into Alchemy, you have a 6/(10+6) = 6/16 = 3/8 = 0.375 chance of being elevated. This one's pretty straightforward.

However, if you file, say, 3 EP into Alchemy and 3 into Naming, the probability of being elevated becomes 1 - (the probability of both Masters elevating someone else) = 1 - (the chance of Master Alchemist not picking you ) * (the chance of Master Namer not picking you). That comes out to equal 1 - (10/13)*(10/13) = 0.408.

Now, if you decide to file all of your EP into six different fields, each with 10 EP filed other than you, that brings you an elevation chance of 1 - (10/11)^6 = 0.435.

I'll note that the math may work differently depending on variability in total numbers of EP filed in various fields. Y'all should check if what I did above is correct because it may very well turn out to be wrong. But I think this shows that if you care about getting elevated at all, it is in your interest to spread out EP as thin as possible. If you particularly want a certain field, though, then yes, feel free to go for that field.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Lumgol
grammar

[little wilson]

PMs will be slightly delayed. Some of the formulas pulling info for the PMs are referencing the wrong areas. We'll fix it shortly and get the PMs sent out / fix the ones already sent.

[Elkanah]

Wow, Elbereth! That write up was devastating! Well done, heartless skindancers! If that is your real name. Also, does anyone want to claim this nameless child?

I'm sorry you were brought on the horns, Experience. At least we only had one person disciplined and it is just an apology.

I super believe in you, Sart. You can break out! She will be waiting for you.

[Karnage]

Lasko Vietch woke up. Today felt a bit different. Lasko got up, got dressed, and gathered his books. He grabbed a banana, peeled it halfway and bit into it as he opened the door. In the middle of a bite of his banana he saw a note and a piece of candy. Did it say, did it say- Happy New Term?. That sure is strange! He picked it up and slipped it into his pocket, he might just eat it as a snack in between one of his classes.

---

Walking through the open gate of the University, Lasko Vietch could definitely tell that something was going on. There were rumors of Skindancers traveling around the school, Lasko knew that the rumors coudn't be true but it still gave him the shivers to think about it. The candy that he had almost seemed to sear a piece a hole into his pocket. He stopped by a group of students who were obviously downtrodden. "Whats up, something happened didn't it? Why is everyone so downtrodden?" (open to anyone that wants to join it). He looked around the group, half of them had hoods over their heads so he couldn't tell who was who. 

---

I agree with Elkanah that the write up was both great and devastating. I am also a bit sad that I haven't been elevated. More tomorrow.

[Elbereth]

Also, if your EP seem wrong, remember that EP can be used to cancel out DP if the relevant Master puts it on you. 

 

[Coffeecat]

Ruthless skindancers....

you shall burn in my irons!!!

[DeTess]

Unsurprisingly enough, nine people got elevated, so there's no field out there that no one is investing in.

Sart being sabotaged (I don't think there's any way in which he could have gotten enough insanity points to crack naturally), was probably a low-information play. Sart was reasonably active, gut hadn't shared too many game comments yet. Though it should be noted that Sart's votes where actual stab votes, rather than just tuition driven by the look of things, and the skindancers might have tried to shut that down.

Speaking of votes: Zillah @Zillah, you haven't shared many game thoughts yet. Is there anything you'd wish to share with us in regards to that?

***

Being elevated had been a mixed blessing for Evelyn. On the one hand, it gave her access to more facilities all around the university. On the other hand, it meant that all kinds of people suddenly had expectations of her. Right now, she was putting up the posters she had made for the master physicker, warning people about the inherent risks of over-exertion and the need for students to rest to avoid cracking. Last week, she’d been tasked by an El’the to help out with making a small pamphlet with arithmetics problems, and he’d told her the master arithemtist herself had recommended her for the job. And just as she’d finished printing the posters, she’d been approached by a high-ranking student in the field of artificery to help with he creation of some promotional material.

She wondered if the masters had somehow found out about her pamphletting activities, and this was their way of putting a stop to it. She wouldn’t allow that though. It might take a couple of long nights, but she would get back to fighting against all the injustices inherent to the universities way of doing things. Just as soon as she had some time to spare. And had had a good night’s sleep.

Edited May 4, 2020 by DeTess

[Straw]

8 hours ago, Lumgol said:

Darn, I was hoping to get elevated  

So I forgot to say this last turn (and people may have mentioned it before) but in probability terms, you have a slightly higher chance of being elevated if you distribute EP into many fields.

Let's say that there is a total of 10 EP filed into Alchemy and 10 into Naming, not including whatever you file. (picking 2 fields at random here)

You, aka Hypothetical Audience Person™, would enjoy being elevated in either of those fields about equally. You also happen to have 6 EP to file (to make the math a bit simpler, instead of 5).

If you file all of your EP into Alchemy, you have a 6/(10+6) = 6/16 = 3/8 = 0.375 chance of being elevated. This one's pretty straightforward.

However, if you file, say, 3 EP into Alchemy and 3 into Naming, the probability of being elevated becomes 1 - (the probability of both Masters elevating someone else) = 1 - (the chance of Master Alchemist not picking you ) * (the chance of Master Namer not picking you). That comes out to equal 1 - (10/13)*(10/13) = 0.408.

Now, if you decide to file all of your EP into six different fields, each with 10 EP filed other than you, that brings you an elevation chance of 1 - (10/11)^6 = 0.435.

I'll note that the math may work differently depending on variability in total numbers of EP filed in various fields. Y'all should check if what I did above is correct because it may very well turn out to be wrong. But I think this shows that if you care about getting elevated at all, it is in your interest to spread out EP as thin as possible. If you particularly want a certain field, though, then yes, feel free to go for that field.

Most people will not have six EP, so here are the odds on five EP:

One field: 1 - (10/15) = 33.33%

Two fields: 1 - (10/12)*(10/13) = 35.90%

Three fields: 1 - ((10/12)^2)*(10/11) = 36.87%

Four fields: 1 - ((10/11)^3)*(10/12) = 37.39%

Five fields: 1 - (10/11)^5 = 37.91%

[Coffeecat]

Lord had given up on having any friends.

He simply didn’t have the time and dedication required for it.

So he simply sat himself alone in class, and in the evenings studied.

He thought he had an answer on how to deal with those ruthless and heartless skindancers.

The only relationship he could maintain was of feud, with Araris being the only one in that relationship with him.

 

That guy seriously had complained to him because his name was Lord while he wasn’t a noble.

Sadly, to much dismay of Lord, Lord meant naive in ancient Yillish.

And he wouldn’t just say that to Araris. It would only invite mocking and laughter.

 

So Lord Silberfarben, now a productive E’lir, could only have one enemy.

 

Hmm he thought Araris didn’t get elevated. I wonder what he will say of that.

 

Just as he left his windy room, he stepped on something small and slipped on the small corridor outside his room.

 

A candy, and a note; Hap-Illegible because of Lord stepping on it-erm!!!

 

He hoped it said happy new term.

 

It still lightened his day.

 

Later on, when he found about that unlucky baby left parent-less obviously because of a skindancer, he knew who had done it.

 

 

I officially complain about… Araris!  @Araris Valerian

Edited May 4, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben
Ik ;p it was red, but then i made it a pign and it was not red anymore.

[DeTess]

@Lord_Silberfarben, you need to color your votes red as well to make them count.

[Elbereth]

As a reminder, please do not continue using Term 1 PMs! Create new ones so we can count them without going insane looking at timestamps.  Labeled with the correct term number, preferably. 

[Karnage]

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

(And everyone else? Well, each student (but one) found a small candy outside their door the next morning, accompanied by a note reading Happy new term!!!)

Well, I guess now that we are in term 2 (at least I think that is the correct terminology) things are getting pretty serious. We have to find the one student who didn't get a piece of candy! Seriously I am genuinely curious on who didn't. If someone wants to come out and say that they didn't get candy and a not maybe we can do some detective work. Could it be a clue to something, so generously given to us by someone? I was thinking that maybe this is connected somehow to the one Linguistics ability that says "write a message that is spread around the university with a group of friends". But nobody was elevated until today, was this an example of how it might be used or was this for story purposes by Elbereth.  As for Sagaer Murtoy/ Sart, that sucks! We didn't even have a real chance to RP together.  I am counting on you to break out of the Crockery. @Sart . For RP reasons I am going to vote on GreenRover, as Knighter was the last person Lasko saw with Sagaer and for being suspicius about only going up to Sagaer after he left the group!  

And still what is up with the candy/note thing?

[xinoehp512]

Maern stumbled out of the Stacks, feeling bleary. What time was it? He was pretty sure he’d fallen asleep at some point, but he wasn’t entirely sure. It was easy to lose track of time in this maze of literature.
Soft morning light streamed down on him as he left the Archives building, blinding his darkness-adjusted eyes. He squinted, holding an arm up to block the bright rays. It was morning already? He must have fallen asleep after all. Oops, he thought guiltily. He was pretty sure sleeping in the Stacks was frowned upon.
Oh, well. He wasn’t planning to do it on a regular basis, anyways. Besides, he thought with a rush of excitement, he’d found what he was looking for- books about Fae.
From what he’d learned from his readings (and from the Master Rhetorician’s comments) the Fae that they had to watch out for were a type known as ‘skindancers’. They had no physical form beyond a shadowy mist, instead interacting with the world by entering into and possessing individuals, taking control of their every word and action.
To be honest, it didn’t exactly make him feel safe to know that anyone around him might secretly be an evil Fae bent on destruction. But at least now he knew what he was dealing with.

----

3 minutes ago, Karnage said:

Well, I guess now that we are in term 2 (at least I think that is the correct terminology) things are getting pretty serious. We have to find the one student who didn't get a piece of candy! Seriously I am genuinely curious on who didn't. If someone wants to come out and say that they didn't get candy and a not maybe we can do some detective work. Could it be a clue to something, so generously given to us by someone? I was thinking that maybe this is connected somehow to the one Linguistics ability that says "write a message that is spread around the university with a group of friends". But nobody was elevated until today, was this an example of how it might be used or was this for story purposes by Elbereth.  As for Sagaer Murtoy/ Sart, that sucks! We didn't even have a real chance to RP together.  I am counting on you to break out of the Crockery. @Sart . For RP reasons I am going to vote on GreenRover, as Knighter was the last person Lasko saw with Sagaer and for being suspicius about only going up to Sagaer after he left the group!  

And still what is up with the candy/note thing?

Likely the candyless individual is the person that handed them out- an RP action, by the sound of things. I doubt it has any significance gameplay-wise.

1 hour ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Lord had given up on having any friends.

He simply didn’t have the time and dedication required for it.

So he simply sat himself alone in class, and in the evenings studied.

He thought he had an answer on how to deal with those ruthless and heartless skindancers.

The only relationship he could maintain was of feud, with Araris being the only one in that relationship with him.

 

That guy seriously had complained to him because his name was Lord while he wasn’t a noble.

Sadly, to much dismay of Lord, Lord meant naive in ancient Yillish.

And he wouldn’t just say that to Araris. It would only invite mocking and laughter.

 

So Lord Silberfarben, now a productive E’lir, could only have one enemy.

 

Hmm he thought Araris didn’t get elevated. I wonder what he will say of that.

 

Just as he left his windy room, he stepped on something small and slipped on the small corridor outside his room.

 

A candy, and a note; Hap-Illegible because of Lord stepping on it-erm!!!

 

He hoped it said happy new term.

 

It still lightened his day.

 

Later on, when he found about that unlucky baby left parent-less obviously because of a skindancer, he knew who had done it.

 

 

I officially complain about… Araris!  @Araris Valerian

Oh man, both of my vote targets have been taken now...  Guess I'll have to find a new one!

Lopen. Until new information comes to light, best to just keep doing as we're doing and spread the votes around. It seems to have worked better this time than it did last turn, at least. :P. 

On the off chance that whomever was raised in Linguistics rolled Linguistic Analysis and wants to target me, I am not a Fae. Or a Skindancer, or an elim, or... well, you get the idea. And I promise not to lie for the rest of the cycle, either.  That way, the analysis scan becomes a sort of alignment scan. (Although you still might not want to use it on me- not sure if I'm the most important player to scan, to be honest. (And, of course, that assumes that you got Linguistic Analysis, which you might not have. (Did I say that already? I do believe I did. (Oh, dear, these parentheses are getting ridiculous... hopefully I don't forget to include one of the closing ones on my way out. ))))

[Young Bard]

...OK, I seriously need to pick up my post count if I want to afford tuition again next term. (Either that or take a trip to Deni's, but that's a really bad idea.)

Elandera - I'm just going for a Noble again because I still don't have any particular Elim reads, though I'll try and do some proper analysis later in the cycle, and change my vote if I find anything. I do trust Xinoehp, though - they've been much more active than usual with RP, and I get a generally village read from their posts.

There's no particular meaning to HH and Sart's insanity bouts that I can see. As for future targets, I suspect those who've been elevated now have a target painted on their backs, so be careful and if at all possible, find a way to protect yourself - if you're not in Physicking, try getting a Bloodless if you have the money, or if there are any Nobles (which I think is just Lopen?), maybe stay at the Horse and Four.

This is basically irrelevant, but I got distracted by Lumgol and Straw's analysis of percentages - if you have k EP to shift around, you're splitting into m fields, and you assume c points have been put into each field by other people, then the general probability of being elevated = 1-(mc/(mc+k))^m - for fixed values of k and c, but where m is a variable, the probability of getting elevated approaches 1-e^(-k/c), which kind of makes sense - the more EP you have, and the less EP others put in, the greater chance you have of being elevated, however, there's also an upper limit on how likely you will get elevated is going to be. (Yes, I'm aware this is not at all realistic to what can actually be done in the game, since there are a finite number of fields and an integer number of EP to be split up, it's just that I was curious and wanted to generalise. And also, to say I had to use L'Hopital's rule to solve a problem in an SE game made me chuckle a little bit, and people here are nerdy enough to appreciate it.)

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Bryn blinked.

 

They had to be joking. They were joking right? this doesn't make sense. What? Did they not realize my report was a lot of pieces of other students work put together or something? 

"Congratulation on your elevation to E'lir. Surprisingly, you show great promise in this field. I do hope this elevation will inspire you to improve your work ethic though as that is quite...lacking. Do not disappoint me." 

Bryn blinked again. I mean. she had really enjoyed these classes but she hadn't put a tonne of effort into them. This was starting to sound like one of those teacher tricks where you give the misbehaving student a bigger responsibility and half the time they step up to the plate and suddenly become angels or something.  She doubted her acting skills had actually fooled anyone into thinking she was actually a good student so this was likely the case.
"Thank you so much for this recognition of talent. I can't wait to continue my studies!" she smiled sweetly.  Yeah this master was going to soon be proven that maybe their time was better spent elevating someone more studious. who was she going to copy off now her work was expected to be a different standard! This was not good.
Oh was this master going to be disappointed in her so very quickly.

---
Well being in the first batch of elevations was a welcome surprise. A fun surprise, but also kinda scary being one of the few players who have actions now?
Its good to see not as many people were brought on the horns. I suspect this was due to EP being cancelled out from DP though. I certainly lost some EP from that.

[Guest Coda]

So, I would be willing to accept a vote on me if someone really needs the tuition reductions, but I would prefer not. The events of the first round probably won't happen again, but still. For now, I'm going to place a vote on Karnage, one of the few nobles who have no votes on them. Nothing personal, chap, just getting a tuition reduction. And Young Bard, that is very humorous. 

[Araris Valerian]

To be honest, I don't really need a tuition reduction. So I'll hold off on voting, at least for now. 

Arael penned a letter to Lord Sib, in response to hearing that the fellow had filed a complaint in his direction.

Sib,

It has come to my attention that you find my activity in this University to be unsatisfactory. No matter. You are, as I have pointed out before, only a commoner, and thus beneath any further notice from me. No doubt your complaints will amount to nothing, and I will file none against you to instigate trouble. I bid you good day and wish you success in your ventures here, to the extent that one of lesser birth such as yourself can have.

Arael Solon

Letter written, Arael set out to find Lord Sib's address to have it sent. After checking the Horse and Four along with the Golden Pony, Arael remembered again that Lord Sib was in fact a commoner, and wouldn't have lodging at such fine establishments. So instead he found a messenger boy (one not scared off by his face), gave him the letter, along with instructions to check the various cheaper housing options near the university, and put the whole thing out of his mind. Back to studying in the Archives.

[STINK]

Are people still doing the thing where voting drives tuition down so heartlessly we all just accept that a sense of comradeship isn't needed but instead we all just turn on each other like flies?

Cause if so, then yeah I'm down for that no questions asked

No elevation makes this Stink a slightly miffed Stink  Maybe I should figure out if there's any online universities or something akin to that and jumpstart the process you know? 

[xinoehp512]

Maern squinted at the card, which read Happy new term!!! With three exclamation points. Evidently someone was pretty excited for the upcoming semester.

He unwrapped the candy that had been left next to the card and popped it into his mouth. Peppermint- sweet! He loved peppermint, but he could never seem to afford any. He could hardly afford anything beyond basic necessities, in fact. Luckily for him, however, he'd managed to impress the Masters enough to earn himself a quite low tuition rate- just low enough for him to afford. He'd done a bit better than that, even: in fact, he'd worked hard enough to get raised into the Arcanum as an E'lir! It was going to mean more work, for sure, but it would also give him a chance to learn things that he'd been prohibited from learning previously.

He opened the door with a smile. This term was going to be great; he could feel it already.

For a moment, he could even forget about the skindancers. He couldn’t let himself be consumed by worry, now, could he? If there was little he could do, then he’d satisfy himself with that little. Hopefully it would be enough.

Maern collapsed on his bed and was asleep within seconds.

Edited May 4, 2020 by xinoehp512

[Elkanah]

Kendel nervously played with the piece of candy in his pocket. It bounced and jostled with the handful of jabs Kendel brought along in case something caught his eye. Not to mention the real reason he came to Imre. He wanted to hear the most sublime music available to him and the Eolian was the only place to get it. Sure some of the hopefuls there were mediocre at best, but every so often they brought on the best of the best- those who had been awarded the golden pipes. They had a contract for which they were well compensated to spend time in Imre and perform in front of adoring crowds in the Eolian. Kendel's audacious plan was to 'accidentally' bump into one of the big ticket acts and offer to buy them lunch as a way of saying sorry. Then he would have an hour to sit and ask questions about their method and path to success. With that kind of advantage, Kendel would someday join the greats that blessed audiences everywhere with their music.

He counted out the money in his pocket again by shifting each drab past the treat. It would just have to be a relatively inexpensive lunch. 

[Straw]

Straw had spent a good deal of time studying in the library with Bryn. He had had quite a bit of fun reading all the books he could find! He also ended up finding a book about pranks that you could do with sympathy. Unfortunately, he couldn't do any of them. Perhaps some sympathist would be interested in it. Unfortunately, Straw spent so much time reading books that he never got around to doing his actual homework assignment. Oops!  Due to this, Straw's master was less than pleased, and chose to not elevate him. Hopefully he wouldn't go insane while waiting for his master to finally let him be in the Arcanum.

When Straw finally returned to his rooms, he found a note and a piece of candy for him! How nice of them. Hopefully it wasn't poisonous. That would be very bad and not fun at all.  Straw had heard a rumor that one person hadn't gotten one. In his opinion, that was either a mistake or malicious action. It could maybe be that the person handing out the candies just didn't give themselves one, but why wouldn't you give yourself a candy?

This month had been slightly less dramatic than the last one, thankfully. Someone had apparently gone insane, there was a random baby at the university, and one person was brought on the Horns, but other than that there wasn't much important stuff happening. Most of the university was focused on getting into the Arcanum, after all.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

HH is technically still a 'student', and he definitely wouldn't have gotten a candy, especially since they were placed on doors.

Nobody is elevated high enough to go insane from study, but it is possible for someone at the Mews to be driven insane this turn, so we probably won't get any more obvious skindancer culpability in the writeups.

[Elbereth]

14 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

HH is technically still a 'student', and he definitely wouldn't have gotten a candy, especially since they were placed on doors.

HH didn't get the candy, but is not the person I was thinking of. They know who they are.

also y'all there's a BABY in the street and no one is taking it??? SOMEONE TAKE THE BABY

[xinoehp512]

Maern woke up at the eighth hour of the morning. It took him approximately half a minute to realize what time it was. It took him only a couple minutes more to don his clothes, pack his schoolbag, and dash out the door as fast as was prudent for a public location. 

He chided himself repeatedly for sleeping in as he dashed through the doors of the University and into the room where his first class was held. Breath short and cheeks flushed, he sank into his seat right as the Master began calling attendance.

He exhaled a sigh of relief. That had been close. He really needed to get to bed earlier- he couldn't be sleeping in every day. There was no guarantee that he might not sleep through his entire first period, still in bed. Not to mention the strange things that his brain conjured up when deprived of sleep. It was never a good idea to not be thinking straight- there was simply no telling what might happen.

He made a mental note to himself to get back to his lodgings earlier in the day this time- hopefully that would help knock his sleep routine back into schedule.

----

13 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

HH didn't get the candy, but is not the person I was thinking of. They know who they are.

also y'all there's a BABY in the street and no one is taking it??? SOMEONE TAKE THE BABY

Is the person who didn't get the candy the person who sent out the candy? Are you allowed to tell us? Will this have any impact on the game whatsoever??

1 hour ago, Straw said:

t could maybe be that the person handing out the candies just didn't give themselves one, but why wouldn't you give yourself a candy?

I mean, it would be kind of weird to leave yourself a congratulatory note, don't you think?

Another question, perhaps? (Could I potentially do this entire discussion segment in questions?) Does Fae Lore activate for RP actions? What about Rhetoric & Logic actions, or Linguistic actions, or Sympathy actions? What about the other kind of actions- is there a differentiation between what activates Fae Lore and what doesn't, or do just all actions work?

(Does anyone think that excessive use of specialized end punctuation indicates that the user is halfway to the Crockery?)

On the subject of the Crockery, isn't it quite crazy that a +4 Insanity Point bonus, with any of an has almost a 50 percent chance of driving you insane (with an 8, 9, or 10) in just 2 turns? And isn't it even crazier that that's the IP bonus that you would have if you wanted to learn enough names to gain the bonus chance of breaking out of the crockery unless you were a master?

Does anyone else think that Naming is a rather ridiculously risky field to go into?

[Young Bard]

Nethwyl had heard there was another Alchemy enthusiast staying at the University, someone who called themselves Vol. It seemed like they might have some common interests.

How did you go about introducing yourself when your common interest was pyromania, though? "Hey, I heard we both love experimenting and setting fire to things. Want to become friends and blow things up together?"

Wasn't that a little too forward, though? I mean, Vol would probably think that was weird, wouldn't they? Who just walks up and asks for their tips on the best ways to produce the largest explosion with the most limited supply of materials? Nethwyl's personal favourite was to hydrogen gas in place of regular air when making the reaction explode, since it sped up the reaction, but with another person out there who'd experimented in these things - especially a Noble who would have been able to purchase rarer supplies, maybe they'd found something better.

So, Nethwyl mostly sat back for a term, and continued to work on her experiments privately. It was at the start of the second term, as Nethwyl was heading between classes, that she saw Vol heading in the opposite direction.

Say hello now, it can't hurt.

If you start a conversation now, you'll be late for class. Do it later.

But if you don't now, you never will - you'll just continue thinking about what you might say someday.

She paused, almost halting in her tracks - Vol had almost walked by when she finally blurted out "Hi!"

There was a pause. "Uhhh... you're Vol, right? The alchemist?"

( @Devotary of Spontaneity - by the way, what gender is Vol?)