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The Fabrial Arms Race


Pagerunner

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We’ve (somewhat) recently received the first of our official information about Rhythm of War. Here’s the publisher’s summary, from Amazon: 

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After forming a coalition of human resistance against the enemy invasion, Dalinar Kholin and his Knights Radiant have spent a year fighting a protracted, brutal war. Neither side has gained an advantage. Now, as new technological discoveries begin to change the face of the war, the enemy prepares a bold and dangerous operation.  

The arms race that follows will challenge the very core of the Radiant ideals, and potentially reveal the secrets of the ancient tower that was once the heart of their strength. 

An arms race was not what I’d been expecting, for sure. It caught me a little by surprise; had this been foreshadowed at all? We’ve seen bits and pieces of human advancement with fabrial science, but it seemed like the Fused worked with different tools entirely. (Thunderclasts vs Shardbearers, Fused vs Radiants, Voidlight vs Stormlight, Unmade vs... well, there’s no real analogue on the human’s side that I can see.) So what’s this arms race going to look like? 

After thinking a little more about it, I decided that there must be some hints in the first few books about the Fused side of the fabrial arms race. That’s just how Brandon rolls. So, what were they up to in Oathbringer that might be a portent of this? And there is one big mystery to their actions: the collection of Shardblades and Shardplate. They track down Eshonai’s body, they steal them from Moash and Graves. Perhaps they’re behind the request from the Iriali to recover Adolin’s Shardplate; now that Iri has aligned with the Fused, there may be more to this request than meets the eye. But we don’t see anyone using them in battle. The Fused wouldn’t be able to use the Plate; it would interfere with their magic. But we don’t see any of them using Blades, either. 

How does that tie in with fabrials? As I listed above, the Fused and the humans don’t simply copy each other; they have competing advancements. The Red Queen hypothesis, so to speak. Every Desolation, each side needs to come up with new tools and tactics to stay ahead of the other side’s tricks. This go-around, the Fused already unleashed the Everstorm. We’ve seen our hints of the Coalition developing more advanced fabrials, like flying ships (from one of the OB artwork pages). How are the Fused going to counter? 

I think they are going to make fabrials out of Shardblades and Shardplate. 

The essence of fabrial science is through trapping spren. We know that Shardblades are spren, and we have some pretty strong hints that Shardplate comes from lesser spren, as well, which I won’t dive into in this thread. What if the Fused are trapping unwilling deadeyes and making them run some powerful new fabrials? 

How does this “reveal the secrets of the ancient tower”? This gets down to the fabrials suffusing Urithiru and the gemstone pillar in the center. I suspect that it’s supposed to use an intelligent spren to power the city: specifically, the Sibling. (Another quick aside I won’t dive into: I believe Melishi was the Bondsmith of the Stormfather, and that the Sibling was not bonded, but their retreat caused the shutdown of the Urithiru tower’s fabrial system before Melishi brought about the Recreance. Lots of epigraphs I could quote, but I don’t want to lose focus from the theory just now.) As the humans try to understand what the Fused are making new fabrials, they’ll realize that it’s how the Sibling used to interact with Urithiru. 

There’s one more loose end that I think this ties up: the missing Blades and Plate. From Dalinar’s Feverstone Keep vision: 

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The scout outside backed his horse up. There looked to be a good two hundred Shardbearers out there. Alethkar owned some twenty Blades, Jah Keved a similar number. If one added up all the rest in the world, there might be enough total to equal the two powerful Vorin kingdoms. That meant, so far as he knew, there were less than a hundred Blades in all of the world. And here he saw two hundred Shardbearers gathered in one army. It was mind-numbing. 

 

Soon, there were some three hundred Radiants out on the field.

That is just Stonewards and Windrunners who have achieved Blade and Plate (fourth Oath for Windrunners, presumably the same for Stonewards). I assume these were all the fourth-Oath-ers and fifth-Oath-ers; on top of them, you’ve definitely got third-Oather-ers running around somewhere with Blades and no Plate. And you’ve got the other six Orders with Shards. (No Bondsmith or Skybreaker blades). We can get a sense of scope from the modern Skybreaker order. From one of Szeth's tests in Oathbringer: 

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The Skybreakers arranged themselves to watch the hopefuls. There were some fifty here, and that didn’t count the dozens who were supposedly out on missions. So many. An entire order of Knights Radiant had survived the Recreance and had been watching for the Desolation for two thousand years, constantly replenishing their numbers as others died of old age. 

That’s about a hundred total Skybreakers, a hundred fourth-Oath Stonewards, and two hundred fourth-oath Windrunners. If the other Orders are around those numbers, I’m gonna pull some numbers out of my posterior and estimate a thousands sets of Plate and two thousand Blades. That’s a lot of missing Shards. 

We know those Blades are still in the Physical Realm, at the very least: 

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Questioner  

The missing number of Shardblades. I just want to confirm that, when the Blades were abandoned, that all of them stayed in the Physical Realm. My question is, did some just evaporate? 

Brandon Sanderson  

Ahh, good question. They did not evaporate. 

I’m wondering if this “arms race” is also going to be a literal race for armaments: there’s a stash of Blades and Plates somewhere on the continent, Katana Fleet style, and the heroes and Fused are racing to find them first. Where could they be, and who has them? I’d lean towards a Herald; there are a few of them still entirely unaccounted for, and of the parties to potentially collect and hide Shards, a Herald would be my top candidate to never use them and just bury them. 

 

TL;DR: in the “arms race,” the Fused will be using captured Blades and Plate to make new fabrials. The missing Blades and Plate from the Recreance will be found... but by whom? 

Edited by Pagerunner
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32 minutes ago, Pagerunner said:

I’m wondering if this “arms race” is also going to be a literal race for armaments: there’s a stash of Blades and Plates somewhere on the continent, Katana Fleet style, and the heroes and Fused are racing to find them first. Where could they be, and who has them? I’d lean towards a Herald; there are a few of them still entirely unaccounted for, and of the parties to potentially collect and hide Shards, a Herald would be my top candidate to never use them and just bury them. 

I have a similar yet different theory.  I agree that the fabrials and unique spren are in fact critical to this arms race but I don't think it is just blades and plate that they are after.  Roshar is famous for the large number of unique spren that it has.  Some are worshiped and some are just odd but we have been introduced to a large number of highly varied spren over the past three books.  In the final chapter of OB Dalinar captured one and gave it to one of Roshar's preeminent fabrial scholars.  What if the race is over these unique spren?  Specifically the unmade along with spren like Cusicesh and the knowledge of how to make them into fabrials?  Shallan has demonstrated a knack for getting rid of them.  Against that kind of opponent the fused are going to have to alter their original method of using them.  Imagine what a diminishing thrill fabrial would do to an army.

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44 minutes ago, Pagerunner said:

An arms race was not what I’d been expecting, for sure. It caught me a little by surprise; had this been foreshadowed at all? We’ve seen bits and pieces of human advancement with fabrial science, but it seemed like the Fused worked with different tools entirely

There is Vyre's knife. It had a gem at its pommel, it sounds like a fabrial

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I don't know if all fused would be unable to use Plate; the Gravitation ones probably couldn't, but I don't think it's gonna interfere with every Surge; Renarin was able to use Progression just fine while in Plate. 

But there's also the issue or whether a Shardblade bond sticks to the body or the soul- So a Fused might have to go and collect their blade every time they die. Which would make the weapons less desirable from their perspective. 

But the nevertheless- a large number of Plate and Blades just kind of existing in the world- not being tied to the life of a particular Radiant- is probably an entirely new opportunity for the Fused- those things were probably the near-exclusive property of the Radiants in previous Desolations. I have to imagine the temptation to try and use them now that they finally have a chance to is great.

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2 hours ago, Pagerunner said:

And there is one big mystery to their actions: the collection of Shardblades and Shardplate. They track down Eshonai’s body, they steal them from Moash and Graves. Perhaps they’re behind the request from the Iriali to recover Adolin’s Shardplate; now that Iri has aligned with the Fused, there may be more to this request than meets the eye. But we don’t see anyone using them in battle. The Fused wouldn’t be able to use the Plate; it would interfere with their magic. But we don’t see any of them using Blades, either.

 

I don't see why there has to be any more to it than the Fused attempting to track down, collect and use all the deadplate and deadeyes from the Recreance. We didn't see the Fused use shardblades yet, but do we have any reason to think that they possessed more than a couple of them in OB? They got 2 complete shardsets from Graves and Moash and might have also obtained Teleb's plate, which was lost during the battle for Narak, IIRC, and never recovered. That's not a lot, there is a certain learning curve to becoming proficient with a shardblade and Odium expected the battle for Thaylenah to be a slumdunk, so it is no wonder that the shardblades weren't transported there. Also, certain types of Fused might not be hindered by the dead shardplate in their surge-binding, as long as they left one hand bare - those with Division, Soulcasting, Tension and Cohesion, even Illumination, as long as they didn't try to disguise themselves.

Even if for some reason the Fused can't use the shardplate, giving it  to the new singers in appropriate combat-oriented forms would greatly enhance their military capability. And I am pretty sure that we'll see hundreds of Fused armed with deadeyes, which is going to be a massive paradigm shift from all the previous Desolations, where they had to make do with inferior weapons. They have already looted some soulcasters too, so they now have a number of tools that were previously restricted to their opponents. And, as @Dreamer pointed out, there is an odiuminium  dagger as a new development, with either other 9 like it or swappable trap-gems, which is their "final solution" to the Oathpact problem. Also, the Everstorm. They might also try for the rest of the Honorblades.

That's their side of the arms race, IMHO, while the new Radiants and their allies are going to be inventing new fabrials, with the goal of giving non-invested people a chance to fend off the Fused and the thunderclasts, because with them respawning via Everstorm  the new Radiants won't be able to delude themselves into believing that they could win without greatly enhancing military capabilities of normal soldiers, as their predecessors disastrously did. Possibly the anti-Odium side will get  some magi-tech input from a certain outworlder, because of this WoB:

 

 

Quote

 

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

See, I like science, because you can be wrong with science. In SA4, you will have a character...a scientist..who appeared in the book we're talking about, talk about some of the things he got wrong.

Footnote: This was during the Warbreaker 10th Anniversary panel.
DragonCon 2019 (Aug. 29, 2019)

 

 

BTW, do we know that the Stonewards had fewer _knights_ than the Windrunners before the Recreance? I always thought that the Windrunners were the most numerous because of their many squires. But in any case, there used to be thousands of Radiants back then, so the knights in the Feverstone vision likely don't even represent the majorities of their respective Orders...

 

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2 hours ago, Pagerunner said:

How does that tie in with fabrials? As I listed above, the Fused and the humans don’t simply copy each other; they have competing advancements. The Red Queen hypothesis, so to speak. Every Desolation, each side needs to come up with new tools and tactics to stay ahead of the other side’s tricks. This go-around, the Fused already unleashed the Everstorm. We’ve seen our hints of the Coalition developing more advanced fabrials, like flying ships (from one of the OB artwork pages). How are the Fused going to counter? 

I think they are going to make fabrials out of Shardblades and Shardplate. 

The essence of fabrial science is through trapping spren. We know that Shardblades are spren, and we have some pretty strong hints that Shardplate comes from lesser spren, as well, which I won’t dive into in this thread. What if the Fused are trapping unwilling deadeyes and making them run some powerful new fabrials?

Why would they bother with fabrials and trapping spren, while they can alter spren directly and have the cooperation of many voidspren? Why not make true Voidbringers through a Nahel bond? Or make minions out of black smoke? Voidbringers riding the dark, smoky dragons, Nazgul style?

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1 hour ago, Nuatoma said:

The shards are obviously in the hidden undersea caverns of Aimia.

This makes a lot of sense. It also explains why Brandon needed to write the Rysn novella before RoW, Wandersail, seeing as that will be involving Aimia - he could introduce the missing blades and plate there. He's already introduced Aimia to the main story, in the interlude with the soulcaster from Oathbringer. I don't think that he would do that, as well as adding the large foreshadowing ("there are secrets here that could destroy worlds" or something of the like) without backing it up in the next book.

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So much to unpack in such a short synopsis. I have so many questions.

1. What has the intervening year of war been like? Has it just been an attempt to exert control over as many of Roshar's nations as possible? Or just the cities with Oathgates?

2. Why has neither side gained an advantage? We know that at the end of Oathbringer, Odium was still awaiting the arrival of some of the most powerful fused. Presumably they've arrived by now, but that seemingly hasn't changed the balance of power? I imagine the growing ranks of Windrunners have had at least some counterbalancing effect, but I wonder what else has allowed the KR to hold the line. Have they gone on the offensive anywhere?

3. What are the new technologies changing the face of the war? Fabrials obvi, but what kind and how so?

4. What is the "bold and dangerous operation" (BADO) that Odium is preparing? Going after the Heralds? If so, is he doing that just to take potentially powerful players off the board or is it something more? He's already got the Everstorm workaround to get the fused back from Braize, but maybe that's Investiture he'd rather devote elsewhere? Attacking Urithiru itself? More generally I wonder about Odium's overall strategy. Does he win if he just kills all the humans? I don't think so. He still seems to need something more to be freed from the bonds that Honor and Cultivation set up.

5. Why does the BADO spark an arms race? I could be reading too much into the phrasing here, but it certainly suggests that it's the BADO that sparks the arms race. Is that because it succeeds?

6. Why does the arms race challenge the core of the Radiant ideals? This is one of the most intriguing questions to me because it suggests that the arms race may result in weaponry with the potential to cause death on a massive scale. One imagines that post-OB Dalinar (and certainly Kaladin) might have reservations about ends-justify-the-means usage of such weaponry. But what about Navani and Jasnah? Intriguing potential conflict there.

7. How will the arms race potentially reveal the secrets of Urithiru? And why was Urithiru considered the heart of the Radiants' strength?

Wish I had more answers to offer, but thought at least listing the questions might help spur discussion.



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34 minutes ago, mdross81 said:

2. Why has neither side gained an advantage? We know that at the end of Oathbringer, Odium was still awaiting the arrival of some of the most powerful fused. Presumably they've arrived by now, but that seemingly hasn't changed the balance of power? I imagine the growing ranks of Windrunners have had at least some counterbalancing effect, but I wonder what else has allowed the KR to hold the line. Have they gone on the offensive anywhere?

So in this we have an answer.  Shardbearers can't hold ground.  Simply having fused strike without supporting troops reduces the number of parshe bodies you have without doing permanent damage.

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2 hours ago, Karger said:

So in this we have an answer.  Shardbearers can't hold ground.  Simply having fused strike without supporting troops reduces the number of parshe bodies you have without doing permanent damage.

Exactly. The humans have numerical superiority and more trained soldiers. They also enjoy naval superiority and hold most oath gates.

3 hours ago, mdross81 said:

1. What has the intervening year of war been like? Has it just been an attempt to exert control over as many of Roshar's nations as possible? Or just the cities with Oathgates?

Ugly guerillia. The Odious forces do have superiority anywhere they wish, but not everywhere.

3 hours ago, mdross81 said:

2. Why has neither side gained an advantage? We know that at the end of Oathbringer, Odium was still awaiting the arrival of some of the most powerful fused. Presumably they've arrived by now, but that seemingly hasn't changed the balance of power? I imagine the growing ranks of Windrunners have had at least some counterbalancing effect, but I wonder what else has allowed the KR to hold the line. Have they gone on the offensive anywhere?


They aren't. Conventional troops are holding the line. Sort of. You attack supply lines. The KR supply intelligence, transport and reinforcements.

3 hours ago, mdross81 said:

4. What is the "bold and dangerous operation" (BADO) that Odium is preparing? Going after the Heralds? If so, is he doing that just to take potentially powerful players off the board or is it something more?

What are they doing? He may try to attack the oath pact itself by arcane means.

3 hours ago, mdross81 said:

He's already got the Everstorm workaround to get the fused back from Braize, but maybe that's Investiture he'd rather devote elsewhere? Attacking Urithiru itself? More generally I wonder about Odium's overall strategy. Does he win if he just kills all the humans? I don't think so. He still seems to need something more to be freed from the bonds that Honor and Cultivation set up.

THat is the big question. He may need to kill Cultivation.

3 hours ago, mdross81 said:

5. Why does the BADO spark an arms race? I could be reading too much into the phrasing here, but it certainly suggests that it's the BADO that sparks the arms race. Is that because it succeeds?

I read it exactly the other way round. The KR have started it.

 

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There is a certain... symmetry in the ending of OB, that might also be relevant.

See, on one side, we have Dalinar having his big moment in rejecting Odium. Then, he goes to Nergaoul and captures it in the Honor's Drop, a perfect gem. The end result is that Dalinar's side now has a gem in which a powerful spren of Odium is trapped, and one which softly glows with Voidlight. Dalinar asks Navani to study it.

On the other side, Moash hunts down Jezrein. He stabs him with a special knife given to him by the Singers, and this breaks Jezrein's cycle of rebirth by capturing his "soul" in a gem at the end of the knife. That gem gains a soft glow. The end result is that Odium's side gets a gem in which a powerful "spren" of Honor is trapped, and one which softly glows with Stormlight.

We don't know what they're gonna do with it, but suffice it to say that the Fused probably have plans. 

It is also interesting that Odium and/or the Fused go after Jezrein's soul only after Nergaoul is captured by Dalinar.

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1 hour ago, asmodeus said:

There is a certain... symmetry in the ending of OB, that might also be relevant.

See, on one side, we have Dalinar having his big moment in rejecting Odium. Then, he goes to Nergaoul and captures it in the Honor's Drop, a perfect gem. The end result is that Dalinar's side now has a gem in which a powerful spren of Odium is trapped, and one which softly glows with Voidlight. Dalinar asks Navani to study it.

On the other side, Moash hunts down Jezrein. He stabs him with a special knife given to him by the Singers, and this breaks Jezrein's cycle of rebirth by capturing his "soul" in a gem at the end of the knife. That gem gains a soft glow. The end result is that Odium's side gets a gem in which a powerful "spren" of Honor is trapped, and one which softly glows with Stormlight.

We don't know what they're gonna do with it, but suffice it to say that the Fused probably have plans. 

It is also interesting that Odium and/or the Fused go after Jezrein's soul only after Nergaoul is captured by Dalinar.

Now THAT is an arms race for you. Nice thinking.

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We don't really know what the parshmen know about fabrials. But we do know they fought for gemhearts on the shattered plains. In book they wondered of they had their own soulcasters to create food for their army. Then we have the fact the fused are very old and lived in times where powerful ancient fabrials were used and made....healing fabrials soulcasters and im sure theres plenty of other types lost to time. I feel that's plenty of foreshadowing on how the parshiendi will give them a run for their money.

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On the contrary- according to what Navani sees in Urithiru, the ancient Fabrials were considerably more primitive than modern ones. Like the standard narrative was that the ancients were super advanced, but that's mostly based on their misunderstandings of Blades and Plate. 

Soulcasters, meanwhile, are mostly from Aimia, and it feels to me like the details of their construction were as mysterious then as they are now. The Regrowth Fabrial in Nale's back pocket is probably a similar story. 

Really, my feeling is that Fabrials are their big ace-in-the-hole they could use to overcome the Experience advantage the Fused have over them. Like they've probably fought and killed dozens of Kaladins and Shallans and Jasnahs in the past. But stuff like the Painrial? They probably still have no idea that's even a thing. And I betcha that millennia old ghosts who've fought basically a same war dozens of times over are gonna find it difficult to adapt to changing times. 

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On 4/7/2020 at 1:19 PM, mdross81 said:

7. How will the arms race potentially reveal the secrets of Urithiru? And why was Urithiru considered the heart of the Radiants' strength?

My guess: Someone notices that stronger spren create stronger fabrials, maybe even Dawnshard-level fabrials. This poses three distinct but related questions:

1. Is it ever acceptable to use a radiant spren/sapient spren in a fabrial? (Personally, I expect we will see someone capture a radiant spren and use the fabrial to prevent disaster somewhere in Book 1 or Book 2 of RoW.)

2. Is it worth the risk to build a Nergaoul fabrial? (My guess is that they find out after the fact that it is NOT worth it)

3. Is it worth the risk to capture a Bondsmith-level spren (i.e. The Sibling) and give up on another bondsmith? (My guess is they ultimately decide against it during the Sanderlanche. This will allow the Sibling to bond a new bondsmith (R'Lain?) which will reveal the secrets of Urithiru and harden their defenses in time to save the tower from being overrun.

 

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7 minutes ago, Q10fanatic said:

1. Is it ever acceptable to use a radiant spren/sapient spren in a fabrial? (Personally, I expect we will see someone capture a radiant spren and use the fabrial to prevent disaster somewhere in Book 1 or Book 2 of RoW.)

What additional use would a radiant spren be? Bonding it also gives you a Blade and better control.

As for a sapient spren, do they yield powers otherwise unavailable? Even so, the political backlash would need an extreme justification.

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5 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

What additional use would a radiant spren be? Bonding it also gives you a Blade and better control.

As for a sapient spren, do they yield powers otherwise unavailable? Even so, the political backlash would need an extreme justification.

I think this might happen accidentally or by someone who is not under Dalinar, maybe a member of the Diagram or the Ghostbloods. That avoids the political backlash deterrent, and furthers the Human vs. Spren dynamic that the Knights Radiant need to overcome.

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1 hour ago, Q10fanatic said:

I think this might happen accidentally or by someone who is not under Dalinar, maybe a member of the Diagram or the Ghostbloods. That avoids the political backlash deterrent, and furthers the Human vs. Spren dynamic that the Knights Radiant need to overcome.

This has already happened. That's how they make half shards, Taravangian told Dalinar about it during Dalinar's thrill crisis in Jah Keved.

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6 minutes ago, Gderu said:

This has already happened. That's how they make half shards, Taravangian told Dalinar about it during Dalinar's thrill crisis in Jah Keved.

Maybe. There's debate about whether or not Taravangian was being honest, and if Taravangian understands the distinction between Radiant spren and lesser spren, and if he understands the process of making Half-Shards as fully as he thinks he does, and indeed, if that's even what Taravangian meant to say.

It's kind of a whole thing. Kind of a debate I don't particular want to get into. Let's just say that it's possible that Half-Shards use Radiant Spren, but we don't know for sure, okay? 

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21 minutes ago, Q10fanatic said:

Do we know what type of spren they are using for the half-shards?

I don't think so. From what he said, it sounded to me a bit like cryptics, but we can't be sure.

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18 minutes ago, Gilphon said:

 

Maybe. There's debate about whether or not Taravangian was being honest, and if Taravangian understands the distinction between Radiant spren and lesser spren, and if he understands the process of making Half-Shards as fully as he thinks he does, and indeed, if that's even what Taravangian meant to say.

It's kind of a whole thing. Kind of a debate I don't particular want to get into. Let's just say that it's possible that Half-Shards use Radiant Spren, but we don't know for sure, okay? 

Sure, I guess, but the fact of the matter is that T was still telling the world about this. Even if he was wrong, people still think that what he said true.

I personally see this as foreshadowing for RoW. With the added focus on fabrials we can expect to see, this issue is bound to come up there, and so this is set up for that.

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OK, which concrete fabrials will have been created and/or widely deployed. Some suggestions:

  • painrials - they are just too obvious to use if combined with a long rod or even wire
  • the floating platform - too good for archers
  • the bloodsucker - when Navani switched on the drying fabrial she feared it would suck the blood right out of people - usable idea in a war
  • flame throwers - heating fabrials have the potential to be weaponized
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