Chiberty Posted April 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: The group is too large. I have no problem at all with putting Navani in group#1. I just think that it does not go to Kholinar. Hence Venli is not in it. The evidence you provide for Venli group#1 or in group#2 makes sense. But it seems to me that further evidence puts her outside group#1. If we combine that, she must be in group#2 Not strictly the narrative. The location is the issue. Kaladin & Navani are not as such incompatible with Venli. They are, however, incompatible with Kholinar. Seriously, can you think of any scenario under which Dalinar would let Navani go into Kholinar? Could you explain that logic again? Your arguments for Navani in group#1 are pretty convincing. Your arguments for putting Venli into group#1 or #2 are also good. But the logical connection of that putting them into the same group I do not see. Here is the evidence that pushes Venli to Group 1: Quote Secondskrull Who are the main 'focus' characters for book 4? Venli and Eshonai have flashbacks but what about everyone else? Brandon Sanderson I would say Venli, though the truth is that though she's got a lot of viewpoints, it's really more of an ensemble than the other books. I don't want to say too much, as its spoilers. Expect a decent amount of Venli, but an equal amount of several other characters. General Reddit 2020 (Jan. 11, 2020) This was after Brandon finished the book, so he knows how the main plot was carried out at this point. He said that he would call Venli the "focus" character, with the caveat that he was avoiding spoilers. The spoiler that he is talking about is probably the "main character" information he gave at the Dusty Wheel. This information seems to place those two characters about on par, with the main character slightly higher. Venli being a focus character beyond the flashbacks is evidence towards her being part of the "core arc" of the book. There is also a weaker bit of evidence, and that is how Group 2 is only in Parts 1, 2 and 4, while the flashbacks are in Parts 3, 4, and 5. Those only overlap in Part 4, and with Group 2's climax being in that Part, it would be rather odd for Venli to be in that group, yet with flashbacks continuing beyond, although not impossible. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IcaroRibeiro Posted April 18, 2020 Report Share Posted April 18, 2020 8 hours ago, Oltux72 said: And here the trouble begins. I cannot make a combination of Navani & Kaladin & Venli make sense. One of the few hard data points we have is that Venli starts out in Kholinar (even if that scene we got were technically a flashback into the time beetwen Oathbringer and Rhythm of War). One of the major plot points has to be Venli coming to terms with being a Singer, the last of her tribe (to her knowledge), a Regal and a Radiant. She is not on Odium's side, but neither is she on the human side. That conflict more or less has to be fully on screen. Now, how and why would she get away from Kholinar? Teleport into unchartered territory? Unlikely. But then why would the KRs send a team with Kaladin and Navani into Kholnar? They suffered a major defeat there, losing their king. The city is full of screamer spren and Fused. Windrunners cannot use their Surges there. And risking Navani on a clandestine mission is madness. You'd never get Dalinar to agree to that. If we define group#1 as the Kaladin/Navani group, Venli won't be in it. Again I must disagree. It makes no sense for it to contain Navani then. And we must ask ourselves why the Horneater Peaks matter. Frankly, if Navani is to leave HQ, you will have to give a good reason. Acting as a field engineer in a guerilla in Alethkar isn't a good reason. In fact, if Rhythm of War were to have a lot of fighting in eastern Roshar, then why the time jump? It could have started a few weeks after Oathbringer. Hence if you want a group with Kaladin and Navani, it will have to be on an expedition so important or exploratory that sending Navani on it is justified. That makes sense. That also makes sense. But the proposals for group #2 and #3 are compatible with the data, not strongly suggested by it. It leaves out Venli. I would propose that there is a group making diplomacy but it will be between Venli's group and Jasnah & Dalinar on the other side. Venli is probably in Group 1 because her flashbacks starts at Part 3, and Sanderson won't remove a character of the narrative while her flashbacks are happening. This strongly suggests Venli is in Group 1 I think Group 3 will have fewer POV than Groups 1 and 2, specially because they have POV in parts 3 and 5 only, and generally Part 5 is about the climax of the book and generally have less chapters. The main character of the book is for sure in Group 1. Navani can indeed be in Group 3 along with Dalinar, however this makes me confused, I'll explain why Among the main characters choices for this book I bet Szeth will be protagonista in SA5, and both Jasnah, Lift and Renarin will be saved for the arc 2 of the series, so it leave us only three characters: Venli, Navani and Adolin. Sanderson however barely spoke about Adolin during his process, it will be really surprising if Adolin is the main character in the group 1. Is it possible? Yes, but I doubt it. So it's Navani or Venli or even a completely different character (even less likely than Adolin) We therefore have 4 possibilities: a) Venli is the main AND the flashback character and is at group 1, and the rumours about her not being the main character is pure hearsay. Navani is at group 3 b ) Venli is the flashback character, but is at the group 3 and won't have many POV in the present (makes little sense, since it's the most singer-focused book to date,and she will out of the book while 30% of her back story is covered). Navani is at group 1 and is the main character c) Navani and Venli are both in group 1, and are the main and the flashback characters and both have many POVs and plot significance d) Rumours about Venli been the flashback but not main character are true, but she's still in group 1. Adolin or other character (Rlain?) is at group 1 and is the main character My thoughts are either a) or c) are the most likely ones. I can't see Venli in group 3, like... not at all. If Navani is at group 1 she's the main character, if not I don't see who can be the main character other than Venli 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Use the Falchion Posted April 18, 2020 Report Share Posted April 18, 2020 I don't have any sort of process of elimination like y'all but my theory is: Group 1: Venli (it's "her" book), Navani (the other main character if our speculation is to be believed), Kaladin (because of course it's Kaladin) will be the Big 3. The smaller viewpoint will be Rlain, and the one POV will be Jasnah. What's happening? A rescue/counter-mission is my guess. Team Odium is doing something and in order to stop it, we need a small but powerful strike team. Venli wants insurance for her people, and so Dalinar must send someone he trusts, but who isn't a Radiant. Navani, curious, offers to go. Kaladin goes to protect her and pick up his own spy and some stragglers along the way. Jasnah is there because of the mission falls sideways she can get them out (or rather, she doesn't trust Kaladin to do his job well and is there to make sure her mother is safe...and this may be her last semi-peaceful option before she decides the genocide route. Kaladin will try to convince her away from that), and if it's a diplomatic meeting, she can represent Alethkar. Group 2: Adolin and Shallan. What's happening? Well, the lovely couple decides they need a break from their respective families (and Shallan has a mission she needs to complete) so they go on a vacation. And by vacation I mean a high-risk mission to capture one of the Unmade and potentially convert her to Team Good Guys. Group 3: Dalinar and the either the Herdazian general or Szeth. What's happening? Well, we see the front lines and beyond with Group 1, we have a dangers Spec-Ops mission with Group 2, so now we see the war room with Group 3. Interlude Novella Character: I'd either say the Herdazian general if he's not a part of Group 3, Vyre chasing down the other Heralds (or a Herald running from Vyre), or Lirin commenting on what the war has done. Rlain is another option, but I'd rather him be a main character. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Oltux72 Posted April 22, 2020 Report Share Posted April 22, 2020 On 04/04/2020 at 8:31 PM, ChickenLiberty said: Lift [12] Is either the very minor PoV in Group 1, the "through line" interlude PoV, or not in a group, as interlude characters have only been very minor viewpoints in the past If she is in a group, that group is in Urithiru Since Lift's group would need to be in Urithiru, and Venli has a very high likelihood of being in Group 1, in Alethkar, Lift would not be in Group 1, and thus, she should either be the main interlude character, or she does not have a place in the given format The problem with that is that what we got from Lift was not an interlude in all likelihood. And it was in Urithiru beyond doubt The timing does not fit for an interlude. She marked her height on a wall. The wall has markings for eight months. We lost track of her in Thaylenah. She needed to get to Urithiru. She changed her nest there, as was mentioned. She hardly started markings on day 1 of getting there. It strains credibility to assume that her PoV was not present tense of the book. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiberty Posted April 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, Oltux72 said: The problem with that is that what we got from Lift was not an interlude in all likelihood. And it was in Urithiru beyond doubt The timing does not fit for an interlude. She marked her height on a wall. The wall has markings for eight months. We lost track of her in Thaylenah. She needed to get to Urithiru. She changed her nest there, as was mentioned. She hardly started markings on day 1 of getting there. It strains credibility to assume that her PoV was not present tense of the book. Brandon calls it an interlude. 41:40 is about when he says it. Edit: Hmm. I just realized that he calls it "Lift's interlude." Not "a Lift interlude" or "one of Lift's interludes." The wording definitely implies that there is only one Lift interlude. What do you think? Edited April 23, 2020 by ChickenLiberty 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Oltux72 Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 4 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said: Edit: Hmm. I just realized that he calls it "Lift's interlude." Not "a Lift interlude" or "one of Lift's interludes." The wording definitely implies that there is only one Lift interlude. What do you think? Right. You can conclude that it is present tense or nearly so. But it can still be an interlude. It just cannot be a flashback. Lift has become like Axies. Yet, doesn't that rule out Urithiru as a major place of action? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiberty Posted April 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, Oltux72 said: Right. You can conclude that it is present tense or nearly so. But it can still be an interlude. It just cannot be a flashback. Lift has become like Axies. Yet, doesn't that rule out Urithiru as a major place of action? Did I ever say that it was a flashback? I only remember claiming that it was an interlude. Sorry if I made that unclear somewhere. I agree that is definitely not a flashback and that it is an interlude. When I pointed out that Brandon called it "Lift's interlude," I was trying to say that that might rule her out as the main interlude character, as he probably would have worded that differently if it was. She probably only has one interlude. It doesn't necessarily rule out Urithiru as a place of action, but you present a good point there. It really depends on what Brandon meant when he said that they would be in separate locations. A possibility is that a group is at Urithiru, but just very separated from Lift. Edited April 23, 2020 by ChickenLiberty 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Oltux72 Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 2 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said: Did I ever say that it was a flashback? I only remember claiming that it was an interlude. Sorry if I made that unclear somewhere. No, that was my flawed assumption. I equated flashbacks and interludes. 2 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said: It doesn't necessarily rule out Urithiru as a place of action, but you present a good point there. It really depends on what Brandon meant when he said that they would be in separate locations. A possibility is that a group is at Urithiru, but just very separated from Lift. That feels a bit - far fetched. One more issue. Does Brandon count Spren when he does these counts? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiberty Posted April 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: No, that was my flawed assumption. I equated flashbacks and interludes. That feels a bit - far fetched. One more issue. Does Brandon count Spren when he does these counts? Yeah, I'm not sure of the likelihood. I was just pointing out an example. I assume that Brandon counts the spren if they get a viewpoint, but otherwise doesn't. Do you agree that Lift seems to only be getting one interlude? Edited April 23, 2020 by ChickenLiberty 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Oltux72 Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 1 minute ago, ChickenLiberty said: I assume that Brandon counts the spren if they get a viewpoint, but otherwise doesn't. That is the answer that generates the greatest amount of uncertainty. 1 minute ago, ChickenLiberty said: Do you agree that Lift seems to only be getting one interlude? Yes, if you count these by PoV. There could be other interludes including her from somebody else's view. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Oltux72 Posted April 25, 2020 Report Share Posted April 25, 2020 On 04/04/2020 at 8:31 PM, ChickenLiberty said: Venli Is a major PoV in Group 1 or is in Group 2, as she has a lot of viewpoints [18] Is more likely to be in Group 1, as her flashbacks start in Part 3, and Group 2 is not in Part 3 or 5 [1] Her group should be in Alethkar [18] Very well, what allows the conclusion that Venli's viewpoints are mainly outside interludes and flshbacks? We know that there will be a lot of flashbacks for her. As far as I can tell she could be in group #3 And on another topic, how much will the Knights Radiant have learned about future sight by then? Enough to include Renarin into an expedition they really need to keep secret? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiberty Posted April 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) On 4/25/2020 at 10:17 AM, Oltux72 said: Very well, what allows the conclusion that Venli's viewpoints are mainly outside interludes and flshbacks? We know that there will be a lot of flashbacks for her. As far as I can tell she could be in group #3 I am somewhat confused as to what your stance is on this topic, as you said this in a previous comment: On 4/18/2020 at 10:39 AM, Oltux72 said: The evidence you provide for Venli group#1 or in group#2 makes sense. But it seems to me that further evidence puts her outside group#1. If we combine that, she must be in group#2 ... Could you explain that logic again? Your arguments for Navani in group#1 are pretty convincing. Your arguments for putting Venli into group#1 or #2 are also good. But the logical connection of that putting them into the same group I do not see. I had given this argument in response: On 4/18/2020 at 11:08 AM, ChickenLiberty said: Here is the evidence that pushes Venli to Group 1: Quote Secondskrull Who are the main 'focus' characters for book 4? Venli and Eshonai have flashbacks but what about everyone else? Brandon Sanderson I would say Venli, though the truth is that though she's got a lot of viewpoints, it's really more of an ensemble than the other books. I don't want to say too much, as its spoilers. Expect a decent amount of Venli, but an equal amount of several other characters. General Reddit 2020 (Jan. 11, 2020) This was after Brandon finished the book, so he knows how the main plot was carried out at this point. He said that he would call Venli the "focus" character, with the caveat that he was avoiding spoilers. The spoiler that he is talking about is probably the "main character" information he gave at the Dusty Wheel. This information seems to place those two characters about on par, with the main character slightly higher. Venli being a focus character beyond the flashbacks is evidence towards her being part of the "core arc" of the book. There is also a weaker bit of evidence, and that is how Group 2 is only in Parts 1, 2 and 4, while the flashbacks are in Parts 3, 4, and 5. Those only overlap in Part 4, and with Group 2's climax being in that Part, it would be rather odd for Venli to be in that group, yet with flashbacks continuing beyond, although not impossible. It would be very strange for Brandon to claim that Venli is a focus character with a lot of viewpoints if she was also in Group 3, which will only be touched lightly upon, and not in much depth. It is possible that her many viewpoints come from the flashbacks, but it is not likely. The flashbacks in this book will only be in 3 Parts, while they have been in more Parts in each of the previous books. In the previous books, flashbacks have taken 9-15 chapters. Since this one is in less Parts, and the flashbacks are split between Eshonai and Venli, Venli is not likely to get many flashback chapters. Based on the data, I expect 3-10. Beyond that, we know that Part 1 is over 100K words, which is about a fourth of the book. For comparison to previous books, take a look at @Jofwu's chart: The flashbacks only occur in Parts 3-5, and over 100K words are in Part 1 (111K if it doesn't get trimmed down). Take out the Group 1 PoVs in those Parts, and you are not left with much room for someone only in half of the flahbacks and Group 3 to be considered a "focus" with "a lot of viewpoints. It is possible, but highly unlikely. Sorry for the long post. I'm not great at short explanations. On 4/25/2020 at 10:17 AM, Oltux72 said: And on another topic, how much will the Knights Radiant have learned about future sight by then? Enough to include Renarin into an expedition they really need to keep secret? I have no idea here. Speculating on that type of stuff is not my wrong suit. Edit: Found this: Quote Brandon Sanderson All right! Flashbacks for Stormlight 4 are done. Split between Eshonai/Venli 13 chapters, 30k words. Longer than I'd wanted, but needed to do both. Still another 100k+ to write on other parts. General Twitter 2019 (Sept. 26, 2019) So that's about 15K words for the Venli flashbacks, give or take some depending on how it was split. For reference, Kaladin's, Shallan's, Dalinar's flashback sequences were 40K, 22K, and 47K words, respectively. @agrabes, I've taken your suggestion of putting the reference numbers next to each spot in the groups, so tell me if that helps. I've also sorted different sections of the original post into spoiler boxes to make it easier to go through. Edited April 28, 2020 by ChickenLiberty 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiberty Posted May 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 (edited) The Bulgarian cover has been released: Although cover arts aren't necessarily canonical, they can still give us some information, and since Brandon himself chose the cover art he wanted, it is extremely likely that the major elements of the depiction are accurate. This strongly reinforces the conclusion that Shallan and Adolin are in the same group, and since--as I showed in my original post--Dalinar should be in Group 3, it reinforces their placement together in Group 2. Edited May 18, 2020 by ChickenLiberty 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Use the Falchion Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, ChickenLiberty said: This strongly reinforces the conclusion that Shallan and Adolin are in the same group, and since--as I showed in my original post--Dalinar should be in Group 3, it reinforces their placement together in Group 2. I had the same thoughts as well! To me this means that either Adolin and Shallan are going to Shadesmar in order to help some refugees escape, to turn on the Oathgates that refused to work in the last book, or to capture Sja-Anat (my personal guess). Or maybe some combination of the three. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agrabes Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 2 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said: Although cover arts aren't necessarily canonical, they can still give us some information, and since Brandon himself chose the cover art he wanted, it is extremely likely that the major elements of the depiction are accurate. This strongly reinforces the conclusion that Shallan and Adolin are in the same group, and since--as I showed in my original post--Dalinar should be in Group 3, it reinforces their placement together in Group 2. Yeah, agreed. It's pretty likely that they are together and Group 2 would make sense. I would say it's not 100% certain but pretty likely. The other possibility being that Shallan is part of one of the other groups (or in Group 2 with someone else) and Adolin gets no POVs. I could see it being possible that Adolin's just sort of brought along by Shallan when she needs muscle, etc. The book cover doesn't necessarily reflect the major narrative of the story - for example WoR cover shows Szeth and Kaladin who have only one or two scenes together and Szeth's POVs are only in the interludes. But still the cover art always shows a key iconic scene from the book. So something cool is going to happen in Shadesmar with Shallan and Adolin. And all the finalist covers are awesome! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karger Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 5 hours ago, Use the Falchion said: I had the same thoughts as well! To me this means that either Adolin and Shallan are going to Shadesmar in order to help some refugees escape, to turn on the Oathgates that refused to work in the last book, or to capture Sja-Anat (my personal guess). Or maybe some combination of the three. We just got some cover art of the two of them in Shadesmar! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Use the Falchion Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Karger said: We just got some cover art of the two of them in Shadesmar! Yup, that's where the prediction came from. Otherwise I think I'd still think that the Sja-Anat mission was the only possibility. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karger Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Use the Falchion said: Yup, that's where the prediction came from. Otherwise I think I'd still think that the Sja-Anat mission was the only possibility. I personally think they will be going to one of the spren cities. Potentially to reveal what ever Adolin has done to Maya and gain spren support for radiance. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Use the Falchion Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, Karger said: I personally think they will be going to one of the spren cities. Potentially to reveal what ever Adolin has done to Maya and gain spren support for radiance. That's a pretty dope theory. I really like it! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karger Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Use the Falchion said: That's a pretty dope theory. I really like it! Thanks. I have been wondering how Brandon will swell the ranks of team radiant with the spren so reluctant. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Oltux72 Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 11 hours ago, Use the Falchion said: I had the same thoughts as well! To me this means that either Adolin and Shallan are going to Shadesmar in order to help some refugees escape, to turn on the Oathgates that refused to work in the last book, or to capture Sja-Anat (my personal guess). Or maybe some combination of the three. Well, I am afraid we have to ask the obvious question. How? The oathgates would refuse the partial transfer. They need a perpendicularity or an Elsecaller (or Willshaper). Has Dalinar learned to repeat calling up Honor's perpendicularity at will? Have they fought their way through the Horneater Peaks? Alone? Sneaking in? A High Prince and his wife? These two would be reduced to walking in Shadesmar. That means that their range is limited to the supplies they can carry on their backs, even if we allow for Shallan to pull off the feat of condensing water. Sending horses or chulls with them would worsen the supply issue. And they would have to rely on Dalinar reforming the perpendicularity at prearranged times at prearranged places for them to return. And if they miss that, it means death. And keep in mind that a perpendicularity is hardly inconspicious. You'll get unwelcome visitors if Fused are in the area. Yet you have to be close to your goal in Shadesmar. I am sorry, this group is too small to go to Shadesmar. And if you go to Shadesmar, Jasnah is likely to be with you. She is the only person to have ever returned by herself. 3 hours ago, Karger said: I personally think they will be going to one of the spren cities. Potentially to reveal what ever Adolin has done to Maya and gain spren support for radiance. Is that a mission you would send Adolin and Shallan on? You would send at least two people who can condense water. Again, if that is the mission, that would be a real reason for Navani and Jasnah to go out on an expedition. And to include a Windrunner or Skybreaker for transport. It looks to me that if we get an expedition to Shadesmar, that is the mission group #1 is formed for. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karger Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: Is that a mission you would send Adolin and Shallan on? Adolin has to go. Maya is his. Shallan is both persuasive and married to him. She also possess the ability to alter the landscape in shadesmar and has limited experience with warfare and politics meaning she is the radiant most easily parted with. Both also have experience with the terain itself(only Jasnah and Kaladin have as much experience). 16 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: Sending horses or chulls with them would worsen the supply issue Why not mandras? Worked last time. We know that Navani knows how to capture spren. 14 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: Again, if that is the mission, that would be a real reason for Navani and Jasnah to go out on an expedition Not really. Both are needed to lead the political and scholarly efforts of team radiant. A ruler must be visible during crisis times. MB spoilers Spoiler Elend makes a similar point to Yoman during HoA. 14 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: And to include a Windrunner or Skybreaker for transport. They might have a spare Windrunner but Radiant power(as in manpower) is limited so if yes I think that it will probably be one of the second ideal ones(Skar or Drehy assuming they have not advanced and no new ones are around). I do agree they will probably have additional people on the mission(conventional wisdom indicates to put at least 3 people on any team that is expected to be in a hostile environment in case of casualty). 14 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: How? The oathgates would refuse the partial transfer Dalinar can unlock that. Jasnah could Elsecall them(they arrange to meet her back at the tower after she transfers them in) or they could use the Highstorm. Edited May 19, 2020 by Karger 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Oltux72 Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, Karger said: Adolin has to go. Maya is his. That is a reason not to send him. A deadeye on a diplomatic mission is a problem. Nor is Adolin all that useful as a fighter in Shadesmar. He is used to a shard blade. Alternatively, assuming he will have revived Maya (I still think that is foolish - but lets go with it for now) he is a truly irreplacable asset. You surely do not send him with Shallan alone. That would be mindblowingly stupid. 11 minutes ago, Karger said: Shallan is both persuasive and married to him. She also possess the ability to alter the landscape in shadesmar and has limited experience with warfare and politics meaning she is the radiant most easily parted with. Both also have experience with the terain itself(only Jasnah and Kaladin have as much experience). Shallan is the only Lightweaver they have (her squires are useless without her). Adolin is a High Prince. If you send only those two and lose Shallan, Adolin will die from thirst. Not expendable at all. If you wanted to go by expendability, you'd send Teft and a professional diplomat. Or Renarin, as he is only the heir and a healer, not the ruler, if it has to be a Kholin. 11 minutes ago, Karger said: Why not mandras? Worked last time. We know that Navani knows how to capture spren. Pulling ships. Nobody has ridden them. And you would have to be sure you have correctly identified them in the PR. And you have no idea how a captured spren fares if you transfer them. Nor do you know how they would react, after they had been set free. You may have to deal with extremely angry, huge spren, which you cannot afford to seriously harm or drive off. Great joy - you are describing a suicide mission. This would need testing. And if this is tested, you'd send the testers. And the testers would need to include an Elsecaller or Willshaper. 11 minutes ago, Karger said: Not really. Both are needed to lead the political and scholarly efforts of team radiant. A ruler must be visible during crisis times. MB spoilers Right, but also applies to Adolin and Shallan, albeit to a lesser degree. And Jasnah has a Vorin excuse to not be on the battle field, not so Adolin. And Jasnah can be impersonated as long as you have Shallan. 11 minutes ago, Karger said: They might have a spare Windrunner but Radiant power(as in manpower) is limited so if yes I think that it will probably be one of the second ideal ones(Skar or Drehy assuming they have not advanced and no new ones are around). Then you do not send that expedition at all. Standard operational logic. You do not send irreplacable assets on a mission of no likely return, unless this mission is most important. If it is, you bet the farm and send your best people in a sufficiently large group. Compromise is deadly, for it combines the drawbacks of both options with the advantages of neither. 11 minutes ago, Karger said: I do agree they will probably have additional people on the mission(conventional wisdom indicates to put at least 3 people on any team that is expected to be in a hostile environment in case of casualty). Still a suicide mission. 11 minutes ago, Karger said: Dalinar can unlock that. Jasnah could Elsecall them(they arrange to meet her back at the tower after she transfers them in) or they could use the Highstorm. All untested. It points to Jasnah going on that mission, too. You have identified the mission of group #1. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karger Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: That is a reason not to send him. A deadeye on a diplomatic mission is a problem. Nor is Adolin all that useful as a fighter in Shadesmar. He is used to a shard blade. Alternatively, assuming he will have revived Maya (I still think that is foolish - but lets go with it for now) he is a truly irreplacable asset. You surely do not send him with Shallan alone. That would be mindblowingly stupid. All of this is moot even if it is true as we know he will be going from cover art as I explained several posts ago. We also know Shallan will be with him. Also maybe tone it down a bit? 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: Shallan is the only Lightweaver they have (her squires are useless without her). We don't know if any of her squires have advanced in the past year and with the exception of Windrunners that will be true for any radiant they send(other then Renarin I guess). 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: If you send only those two and lose Shallan, Adolin will die from thirst. Not expendable at all. They have to send expendable people and those two will be included. I personally think they will also have a full support team. A mix of scholars and soldiers would make the most sense. 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: Pulling ships. Nobody has ridden them I was saying that they should make a ship and then, for example, have Shallan manifest it on the other side. This would have the added benefit where the manifested object was pulled back to the PR one. Getting the ship working would be done before the mission where for example Jasnah could work on it. 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: Right, but also applies to Adolin and Shallan, albeit to a lesser degree Shallan is new and Dalinar can substitute for Adolin(as can general Khal). 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: And Jasnah has a Vorin excuse to not be on the battle field Alethi wives are expected to be on the battlefield if not kill people and she is still needed for the diplomatic and political efforts of the Alethi coalition. 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: And Jasnah can be impersonated as long as you have Shallan. That is a super dangerous precedent to make even if you could pull it off. Considering how impressive Jasnah is an individual I think that having Shallan impersonate her for months or weeks is not viable. Also Shallan can't duplicate Jasnah's political or scholastic achievements. 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: Then you do not send that expedition at all. Standard operational logic. You do not send irreplacable assets on a mission of no likely return, unless this mission is most important. If it is, you bet the farm and send your best people in a sufficiently large group. Compromise is deadly, for it combines the drawbacks of both options with the advantages of neither. Neither Shallan nor Adolin is technically irreplaceable. It is also possible even likely that Odium puts Dalinar in a position where he has to compromise because he has several absolutely necessary missions. 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: Still a suicide mission. Shadesmar is dangerous but plenty of people manage to live and work there. The spren even recommend staying as it is less dangerous then the PR in OB. We know that Odium's forces have not managed complete conquest of the place as of OB. If this plan is viable at all it indicates that the spren are holding out. 23 minutes ago, Oltux72 said: All untested. It points to Jasnah going on that mission, too. You have identified the mission of group #1. All can easily be tested. All should theoretically work. Statistically odds are in favor of at least one working. Jasnah does not need to go. Jasnah is needed elsewhere. I actually think it more likely this is group two(possibly three). Two PoVs a host of side characters a narrow focus and a gap where they are just sailing and nothing is happening. We also know IIRC that less Shadesmar will be in this book which indicates it being a group with fewer PoVs. Edited May 19, 2020 by Karger 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Oltux72 Posted May 19, 2020 Report Share Posted May 19, 2020 45 minutes ago, Karger said: All of this is moot even if it is true as we know he will be going from cover art as I explained several posts ago. We also know Shallan will be with him. Also maybe tone it down a bit? My apologies for causing doubt that they are in Shadesmar. That is the entirely reasonable assumption. I share it. My criticism was limited to identifying them as group#2. That hits numerous obstacles. Now I realize that I made the assumption that they are voluntarily in Shadesmar. That is true. Should that turn out to be not the case my objections are moot. 45 minutes ago, Karger said: We don't know if any of her squires have advanced in the past year and with the exception of Windrunners that will be true for any radiant they send(other then Renarin I guess). True, but then why not send the ex-squires? It seems to me that we could discuss this for ages. I feel the basic issue it boils down to is military logic. If this expedition was prepared for, Dalinar must consider it very important. It would have taken considerable resources to prepare such an expedition. That does not make it unreasonable. On the contrary. Shadesmar must hold at least a full record about past desolations, strategies and weapons used in them. Going to Shadesmar makes sense. Should I have created any other impression, I am sorry. The Knights Radiant are fighting immortal foes. They need a way to change the game and will think out of the box, as they have people who are very good at logic and facing unfortunate truths (That is basically a description of Jasnah.). Now what does a general do at that point? Something that will mean a lot of risk. Military thinking and civillian thinking totally diverge here. You do not plan for a partial success. You have a plan that is costly and risky. You do not have a plan B, likely. So what do you do? In poker you would say that you go all in. You do not send expendable people. You accept that if this mission ends in a disaster, the war is lost. So you put as many resources into it as you can. If they succeed, the losses will be worth it. If they fail, you lose. But you would lose anyway. There is no point in holding something back if that would not be enough. There are no silver medals in war. Yes, that will hurt elsewhere. You have no way to avoid that. He who tries to defend everywhere and to cover all considerations, loses. You win a war by chosing one way to concentrate your resources and neglect all other approaches. Hence sending two people and only two people is extremely problematic. You'd have to argue for convoluted circumstances that allow only two people, those two people in particular and still make this mission worthwhile and sensible. In fact why do they not send an army? Logistics. Transport capacity and supplies are limited. But then you send the people who give most use per capita. All of them you can possibly send, including the radiants of the highest oaths. Kaladin, Jasnah, Shallan. And your top project manager and diplomate: Navani. Hence I am forced to repeat my conclusion. You have identified the mission of group#1. 45 minutes ago, Karger said: They have to send expendable people and those two will be included. I personally think they will also have a full support team. A mix of scholars and soldiers would make the most sense. The best scholars they have are Jasnah and Navani. And no, there is a point you send essential people. 45 minutes ago, Karger said: Alethi wives are expected to be on the battlefield if not kill people and she is still needed for the diplomatic and political efforts of the Alethi coalition. I need to point out that Jasnah is nobody's wife. Yes, the drawback you describe is real. But there is no plan without drawbacks. Strategy is the art of deciding where resources need to go and to decide what must be neglected. 45 minutes ago, Karger said: It is also possible even likely that Odium puts Dalinar in a position where he has to compromise because he has several absolutely necessary missions. Exactly. And that is the place military thinking diverges. If you are in that situation, you must pick among those missions. You give priority to a subset and completely abandon the others. The resulting losses must be written off, you consolidate your forces and withdraw. And you realize that you are at a disadvantage and losing. You need to risk everything. To pick the right one you need to be a great general. To understand the basic principle that forces you to pick, a basic reading of Clausewitz or Sun Tzi is enough. 45 minutes ago, Karger said: Shadesmar is dangerous but plenty of people manage to live and work there. The spren even recommend staying as it is less dangerous then the PR in OB. We know that Odium's forces have not managed complete conquest of the place as of OB. If this plan is viable at all it indicates that the spren are holding out. Yes, but there is no point in running anything at less than 100%. I cannot escape the conclusion. You have identified group#1's mission. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.