Deducing RoW character groupings

[+Oltux72]

On 07/04/2020 at 11:59 AM, Callsign Radiant said:

So all the characters start off together right? Is it reasonable to assume that they're all in Alethkar at first then since we know Kaladin and Venli are there?

How? Alethkar is enemy territory by that time. The episode with Lirin even showed that Herdaz has fallen.
At best the Alethi are holding the Shattered Plains.

[Chiberty]

17 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

How? Alethkar is enemy territory by that time. The episode with Lirin even showed that Herdaz has fallen.
At best the Alethi are holding the Shattered Plains.

I agree here. I think that them all starting out together probably doesn't include Venli, and Kaladin being there in chapter 1 doesn't mean much because he can fly. Regardless, I don't think their starting location will be that relevant, since they're just going to be split up for most of the book.

@Oltux72, do you have any thoughts on which character was moved from Group 2 to Group 1?

Edited April 14, 2020 by ChickenLiberty

[agrabes]

One key assumption you've made that I think is incorrect: the flashbacks count as "POVs".  In his chart https://imgur.com/tcE4p4Q from your WOB [1], Sanderson shows the flashbacks as a separate category from the three POV groupings.  So, I think you could say that Venli might be in Group 2 and still have her flashbacks appear in Part 3 of the book.  She just might not have "present day" POVs in that part.

Another point is that from the evidence we have, you could argue that Venli may be group 3.  Here's why I think there's a good case for that:

• Venli is still kind of a villain, and none of the villains have had major POVs up to this point in SA.
• Her flashbacks don't start until Part 3.  This doesn't seem to line up with the style Sanderson has used up to this point if she appears "present day" in Part 1 as a POV, but not as a flashback until Part 3.  This didn't happen in any previous SA book.
• The Part 3 characters appear in Part 1, but don't have POVs.  Then, their climax comes at the very end of the book.  This could make sense if Venli arrives as a "villain" and makes a challenge in Part 1.   It would also make total sense if the climax was the final part of the book - as Venli fully changes sides.

Anyway, just some thoughts.  I just don't think Venli is a lock for Group 1.  

[Chiberty]

23 minutes ago, agrabes said:

One key assumption you've made that I think is incorrect: the flashbacks count as "POVs".  In his chart https://imgur.com/tcE4p4Q from your WOB [1], Sanderson shows the flashbacks as a separate category from the three POV groupings.  So, I think you could say that Venli might be in Group 2 and still have her flashbacks appear in Part 3 of the book.  She just might not have "present day" POVs in that part.

Another point is that from the evidence we have, you could argue that Venli may be group 3.  Here's why I think there's a good case for that:

• Venli is still kind of a villain, and none of the villains have had major POVs up to this point in SA.
• Her flashbacks don't start until Part 3.  This doesn't seem to line up with the style Sanderson has used up to this point if she appears "present day" in Part 1 as a POV, but not as a flashback until Part 3.  This didn't happen in any previous SA book.
• The Part 3 characters appear in Part 1, but don't have POVs.  Then, their climax comes at the very end of the book.  This could make sense if Venli arrives as a "villain" and makes a challenge in Part 1.   It would also make total sense if the climax was the final part of the book - as Venli fully changes sides.

Anyway, just some thoughts.  I just don't think Venli is a lock for Group 1.  

There is not a 100% chance she is in Group 1, but she can't be in Group 3, as the reading Brandon gave from her viewpoint was from when he had only written some of Part 1, which doesn't include Group 3 PoVs. There's definitely a chance that she is in Group 2, but--and this part is more inductive reasoning--in the past, flashback characters have been in every Part, and thus their flashbacks have never occurred without a present-day PoV. 

Group 2 is definitely possible, but Group 1 is more likely.

Edited April 14, 2020 by ChickenLiberty

[agrabes]

17 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said:

There is not a 100% chance she is in Group 1, but she can't be in Group 3, as the reading Brandon gave from her viewpoint was from when he had only written some of Part 1, which doesn't include Group 3 PoVs. There's definitely a chance that she is in Group 2, but--and this part is more inductive reasoning--in the past, flashback characters have been in every Part, and thus their flashbacks have never occurred without a present-day PoV. 

Group 2 is definitely possible, but Group 1 is more likely.

Yeah, I think it's a fair point to say that the flashback characters have generally appeared in every part of the book.  But haven't their flashbacks generally in appeared in every part of the book too?  Dalinar's definitely did.  It feels like something different than usual is going on here since it's confirmed that the flashbacks don't start until Part 3.  There would need to be a reason for that in the overall structure of the book.  One possible explanation is that we don't see Venli POVs at all until Part 3, making her a Group 3 character.  Another might be that it could reveal secrets that would give away things that need to stay hidden in Parts 1 and 2 of the book.

I think it's a little bit of a leap to assume that just because Sanderson gave a reading of her POV during a time he'd said he'd only written Part 1 segments necessarily means that POV segment was actually in Part 1.  Wasn't that the first reading he ever did from the book, before he talked about what groups and parts were being written?  He may have written that scene, then moved it to another Part of the book later on and figured one scene of Part 2 or 3 didn't really count as having started writing.  Or, maybe he wrote that one scene specially for the early preview he gave out of order with the rest of the book.  He may have even entirely scrapped that scene.  There are always disclaimers on these readings that they don't necessarily represent the final book.

I personally think Venli has to be in either Group One or Group Three.  My reasoning is that we expect a major plot arc of this book will be Venli converting to the side of the Radiants.  If she was in Group Two, her last POV would be in Part 4, before the main climax.  So, it would be like she converts to the Radiants and then just gets sidelined for the rest of the book. If she's in Group One - she probably converts early and spends the whole book coming to terms with it.  If she's group three, she converts last minute and turns the tide.

Anyway, not trying to be overly critical.  You've done a lot of work on this and it's a really cool project.  Just trying to point out that most of the WoBs we have are not 100% solid information.

[Chiberty]

1 hour ago, agrabes said:

Yeah, I think it's a fair point to say that the flashback characters have generally appeared in every part of the book.  But haven't their flashbacks generally in appeared in every part of the book too?  Dalinar's definitely did.  It feels like something different than usual is going on here since it's confirmed that the flashbacks don't start until Part 3.  There would need to be a reason for that in the overall structure of the book.  One possible explanation is that we don't see Venli POVs at all until Part 3, making her a Group 3 character.  Another might be that it could reveal secrets that would give away things that need to stay hidden in Parts 1 and 2 of the book.

I think it's a little bit of a leap to assume that just because Sanderson gave a reading of her POV during a time he'd said he'd only written Part 1 segments necessarily means that POV segment was actually in Part 1.  Wasn't that the first reading he ever did from the book, before he talked about what groups and parts were being written?  He may have written that scene, then moved it to another Part of the book later on and figured one scene of Part 2 or 3 didn't really count as having started writing.  Or, maybe he wrote that one scene specially for the early preview he gave out of order with the rest of the book.  He may have even entirely scrapped that scene.  There are always disclaimers on these readings that they don't necessarily represent the final book.

I personally think Venli has to be in either Group One or Group Three.  My reasoning is that we expect a major plot arc of this book will be Venli converting to the side of the Radiants.  If she was in Group Two, her last POV would be in Part 4, before the main climax.  So, it would be like she converts to the Radiants and then just gets sidelined for the rest of the book. If she's in Group One - she probably converts early and spends the whole book coming to terms with it.  If she's group three, she converts last minute and turns the tide.

Anyway, not trying to be overly critical.  You've done a lot of work on this and it's a really cool project.  Just trying to point out that most of the WoBs we have are not 100% solid information.

Don't worry about being critical; that's exactly what I want. The more critical people are of this, the more accurate it can end up being.

I know that the WoBs aren't completely solid information. Judging the accuracy of the WoBs we have should help us. I had almost forgotten about this, but here's a WoB that was given after the book was finished, so it has a good chance of being accurate.

Quote

Secondskrull

Who are the main 'focus' characters for book 4? Venli and Eshonai have flashbacks but what about everyone else?

Brandon Sanderson

I would say Venli, though the truth is that though she's got a lot of viewpoints, it's really more of an ensemble than the other books. I don't want to say too much, as its spoilers. Expect a decent amount of Venli, but an equal amount of several other characters.

General Reddit 2020 (Jan. 11, 2020)

It's possible that I have a faulty idea of Group 3, but "lightly touching" on what they are doing doesn't seem to line up with the above WoB's description of Venli's viewpoints.

Correction on what I said a couple posts ago: I checked the dates on the Reddit updates, and he read the Venli PoV when he had all of Part 1 done, and had some of the rest of Group 2 done. That correction doesn't really affect either of our arguments, but I thought I should point it out.

Edited April 15, 2020 by ChickenLiberty

[Lccaseiro58]

I agree with with @agrabes that Venli may not be in group one. In a recent interview Brandon said that RoW was Venli/Eshonai flashbacks but another caracter was the main character. 

Also, this is the first book where the flashback character is not one of the main characters, these being Kaladin, Shallan and Dalinar, so the structure might be different.

[+Oltux72]

On 04/04/2020 at 8:31 PM, ChickenLiberty said:

• Shallan/Adolin - They are now married, which makes them likely to end up in the same group, and Brandon said that we will get an Adolin viewpoint while he is with Shallan, and although it is not completely clear if this refers to RoW or a later book, it greatly increases the chance. [19] This may occur in the beginning, when all of the characters are together, but either way, Adolin would not be in group 3. [1]

Frankly, Roshar is a technologically not very advanced planet; Adolin is a high prince. I expect Shallan to be quite pregnant at the time RoW starts.And a High Prince cannot leave on a lengthy secret mission. I expect them to stay at base.

[Subvisual Haze]

Quote

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/415/#e13633

Brandon Sanderson
I'm not sure if I can give too much of a hint about that. What I can say is, start to make people's expectations: this is the Venli/Eshonai book. But really, it's the Venli/Eshonai flashbacks, and the main book is focusing a lot more on another character. This just naturally happened during the writing process; there was another character that ended up taking a lot of the time. It's not a person who has a flashback sequence in the books. So, you can theorize on who that would be; it's someone who does not have a flashback sequence, so it's not Kaladin, Shallan, Dalinar, Szeth, Eshonai. But, really, it's this character's book, mixed with flashbacks for Venli/Eshonai. It really turned into that character's book a lot more than I was expecting, and it was one of those happy accidents where I really liked how it turned out. But fans who go into this expecting something that's as much Eshonai or Venli's book as the last book was Dalinar's book are probably going to be disappointed, because it's more of a split between these three characters. Venli/Eshonai in the flashbacks, and then someone else in the present.

So, hardcore fans, expect another character to really be the focus of this book.

This other focus character (who is does have a flashback sequence in another book) is an interesting question.  Adolin or Navani are pretty likely options, the technological advances mentioned on the back of book blurb might point towards Navani focus. Sticking with the Venli/Eshonai flashbacks though, the current focus might be a different Singer/Listener

[Chiberty]

20 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Frankly, Roshar is a technologically not very advanced planet; Adolin is a high prince. I expect Shallan to be quite pregnant at the time RoW starts.And a High Prince cannot leave on a lengthy secret mission. I expect them to stay at base.

This doesn't discount what you're saying, but take a look at the UK cover:

Spoiler

It appears to depict Shallan wielding Pattern, standing on a mountain. Of course, this guess could be wrong, and the covers aren't necessarily canonical, but she does not appear to be pregnant. Adolin's and Shallan's location shouldn't affect which group they are in, but since we know that each group will be in a different place, it may be relevant when considering who the remaining characters in the other two groups are.

@Lccaseiro58, @Subvisual Haze, I know my original post is long, but that WoB has been addressed. It actually doesn't affect the group placement very much; it only means that one of the main 3 characters in Group 1 should be a non-flashback character.

Edited April 16, 2020 by ChickenLiberty

[+Oltux72]

32 minutes ago, ChickenLiberty said:

It appears to depict Shallan wielding Pattern, standing on a mountain.

Right. It looks unlikely to be Jasnah and does not fit the description of Malata.. The easiest explanation would be that she has already given birth.

32 minutes ago, ChickenLiberty said:

Of course, this guess could be wrong, and the covers aren't necessarily canonical, but she does not appear to be pregnant. Adolin's and Shallan's location shouldn't affect which group they are in,

But it does. People like Kaladin and the other Windrunners are really not terribly suited to HQ work. Shallan, however, is. And I suspect that Jasnah will want to keep a close eye on Shallan and Renarin. And if Shallan is to continue infiltrating the Ghostbloods she will have to stay in Urithiru or the Shattered Plains.
I would suggest that Shallan and Jasnah are the group that stays at base, while Navani is going into the field for an extraordinary reason.

[Chiberty]

2 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

But it does. People like Kaladin and the other Windrunners are really not terribly suited to HQ work. Shallan, however, is. And I suspect that Jasnah will want to keep a close eye on Shallan and Renarin. And if Shallan is to continue infiltrating the Ghostbloods she will have to stay in Urithiru or the Shattered Plains.
I would suggest that Shallan and Jasnah are the group that stays at base, while Navani is going into the field for an extraordinary reason.

Did you read the whole post at the beginning? I'm not criticizing you if you didn't, it's pretty long, but it would definitely make the discussion easier if you did, as many of the arguments I'll make are already contained in it. If you already have read it, responding more directly to the arguments I put forward in it would be helpful. For example, if you disagree with the assumption that Kaladin is in Group 1, that would interfere with Shallan's or Adolin's placement. If I don't know which arguments you disagree with, it gets difficult for me to respond in an effective way.

[+Oltux72]

7 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said:

Did you read the whole post at the beginning?

I read it, but I cannot claim that I fully understood it. It is massive. It probably has to be. I cannot suggest how to sensibly split it up.

7 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said:

I'm not criticizing you if you didn't, it's pretty long, but it would definitely make the discussion easier if you did, as many of the arguments I'll make are already contained in it. If you already have read it, responding more directly to the arguments I put forward in it would be helpful. For example, if you disagree with the assumption that Kaladin is in Group 1, that would interfere with Shallan's or Adolin's placement. If I don't know which arguments you disagree with, it gets difficult for me to respond in an effective way.

• I would put Jasnah into group #2 (let's call it group Urithiru) - it just makes little sense to put her elsewhere
• Venli is highly problematic. How would she even know that there is such a thing as the Knights Radiant? And how would the Knights Radiant find her? It looks to me that for the plot to make sense, Venli has to find out these things in the book. That means that she cannot be included in group #1.
• Venli is in Alethkar, likely in Kholinar. We already had a story line there. The book has to take us to new places. I suppose that group #1 will go there.

[agrabes]

17 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said:

Did you read the whole post at the beginning? I'm not criticizing you if you didn't, it's pretty long, but it would definitely make the discussion easier if you did, as many of the arguments I'll make are already contained in it. If you already have read it, responding more directly to the arguments I put forward in it would be helpful. For example, if you disagree with the assumption that Kaladin is in Group 1, that would interfere with Shallan's or Adolin's placement. If I don't know which arguments you disagree with, it gets difficult for me to respond in an effective way.

One assumption you make is that Adolin will be a POV character in this book.  I don't think that's necessarily a given, unless there is a WoB that I've missed.  Adolin has had POVs in every book so far, but never more than a handful.  It might be that he doesn't get any this time around.  Or, the WoB does say we will get a POV from Adolin about Shallan but it doesn't say when.  So it's still possible he would be one of the minor POVs in Group 1.  I think you're right that Navani must be a major character in Group 1 and probably Kaladin.

The Jasnah/Shallan pairing would make a lot of sense for Group 2, imo.  This would leave Adolin as either a minor POV in Group 1 or a non-POV character in Group 2.

[Chiberty]

9 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

I read it, but I cannot claim that I fully understood it. It is massive. It probably has to be. I cannot suggest how to sensibly split it up.

• I would put Jasnah into group #2 (let's call it group Urithiru) - it just makes little sense to put her elsewhere
• Venli is highly problematic. How would she even know that there is such a thing as the Knights Radiant? And how would the Knights Radiant find her? It looks to me that for the plot to make sense, Venli has to find out these things in the book. That means that she cannot be included in group #1.
• Venli is in Alethkar, likely in Kholinar. We already had a story line there. The book has to take us to new places. I suppose that group #1 will go there.

You are right that it is very difficult to split up. This response is about as split-up as it can get, which is a lot, comparatively, but also still pretty big.

Actually, Group 2 is the group that Jasnah can't really be in. Brandon said in response to a not-yet-transcribed livestream that there are a "couple of Jasnah viewpoints" in RoW. [9] This does not match up with his description of Group 2 as following two characters and being "very involved." [1] She would have to be one of the lesser viewpoints--either in Group 3 or a minor PoV in Group 1.

I'm a little bit confused about your stance on Venli's placement. Specifically, why does Venli's need to learn about the Radiants mean that she can't be in Group 1? There's nothing stopping that group from showing two sides of the war at one location. Besides that, we know that Venli will get a lot of viewpoints, [18] and we know that a reading from her PoV was given when only Group 1 had for sure been written. [14]

@agrabes You are right that we don't know with complete certainty that Adolin will be a PoV character. However, there is some good supporting evidence. The WoB that you pointed out is one, [19] and there is an OB update that listed him as one of the eight major-ish characters in SA Arc 1. [27] For reasons that I pointed out above, Jasnah is extremely unlikely to be I Group 2. You are correct that one of Adolins possible placements is as a minor PoV in Group 1, but the only Group 2 candidates are Shallan, Adolin, Kaladin, and with small arguments for Venli (who is much more likely to be in Group 1 for reasons I pointed out above). Since you agree with the general consensus that Kaladin is probably in Group 1, he can't be in Group 2. In regards to Venli, her chance of being in Group 2 is very small. When asked who the focus character was in January, Brandon hesitantly said "Venli," likely trying to not give away the information he later did on the Dusty Wheel. [18] Her being one of the "focus" characters fits in much better with Group 1's description as the core arc of the book. [1] That only leaves Shallan and Adolin as candidates for Group 2, and since it needs two characters, it must be them.

The numbers in brackets correspond to the WoBs in the spoiler at the bottom of my original post.

Edited April 17, 2020 by ChickenLiberty

[Karger]

18 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Frankly, Roshar is a technologically not very advanced planet; Adolin is a high prince. I expect Shallan to be quite pregnant at the time RoW starts.And a High Prince cannot leave on a lengthy secret mission. I expect them to stay at base.

18 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Right. It looks unlikely to be Jasnah and does not fit the description of Malata.. The easiest explanation would be that she has already given birth.

They have contraceptives on scadrial era 1.  Humans have had birth control methods for centuries in the real world.  Also Renarin exists as a backup.  I also think Shallan has more important things to do then have a baby considering she is the only known lightweaver on the planet and having a baby while at war is probably inadvisable. 

9 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Venli is highly problematic. How would she even know that there is such a thing as the Knights Radiant? And how would the Knights Radiant find her? It looks to me that for the plot to make sense, Venli has to find out these things in the book. That means that she cannot be included in group #1.

Venli knows about the existence of the KR from the stories and her interactions with Dalinar and they can find and interact through the visions now that Odium can't confront Dalinar.

[Chiberty]

1 hour ago, Karger said:

They have contraceptives on scadrial era 1.  Humans have had birth control methods for centuries in the real world.  Also Renarin exists as a backup.  I also think Shallan has more important things to do then have a baby considering she is the only known lightweaver on the planet and having a baby while at war is probably inadvisable. 

Venli knows about the existence of the KR from the stories and her interactions with Dalinar and they can find and interact through the visions now that Odium can't confront Dalinar.

The discussion of whether or not Shallan is pregnant doesn't really have an effect on her group placement, but it could be relevant when considering that a character was changed from Group 2 to Group 1. I assume that it's one of the minor 2 Group 1 PoVs, and have put forward my arguments for multiple candidates earlier in this thread. Which character do you think it was?

Edited April 17, 2020 by ChickenLiberty

[agrabes]

4 hours ago, ChickenLiberty said:

You are right that it is very difficult to split up. This response is about as split-up as it can get, which is a lot, comparatively, but also still pretty big.

Actually, Group 2 is the group that Jasnah can't really be in. Brandon said in response to a not-yet-transcribed livestream that there are a "couple of Jasnah viewpoints" in RoW. [9] This does not match up with his description of Group 2 as following two characters and being "very involved." [1] She would have to be one of the lesser viewpoints--either in Group 3 or a minor PoV in Group 1.

I'm a little bit confused about your stance on Venli's placement. Specifically, why does Venli's need to learn about the Radiants mean that she can't be in Group 1? There's nothing stopping that group from showing two sides of the war at one location. Besides that, we know that Venli will get a lot of viewpoints, [18] and we know that a reading from her PoV was given when only Group 1 had for sure been written. [14]

@agrabes You are right that we don't know with complete certainty that Adolin will be a PoV character. However, there is some good supporting evidence. The WoB that you pointed out is one, [19] and there is an OB update that listed him as one of the eight major-ish characters in SA Arc 1. [27] For reasons that I pointed out above, Jasnah is extremely unlikely to be I Group 2. You are correct that one of Adolins possible placements is as a minor PoV in Group 1, but the only Group 2 candidates are Shallan, Adolin, Kaladin, and with small arguments for Venli (who is much more likely to be in Group 1 for reasons I pointed out above). Since you agree with the general consensus that Kaladin is probably in Group 1, he can't be in Group 2. In regards to Venli, her chance of being in Group 2 is very small. When asked who the focus character was in January, Brandon hesitantly said "Venli," likely trying to not give away the information he later did on the Dusty Wheel. [18] Her being one of the "focus" characters fits in much better with Group 1's description as the core arc of the book. [1] That only leaves Shallan and Adolin as candidates for Group 2, and since it needs two characters, it must be them.

The numbers in brackets correspond to the WoBs in the spoiler at the bottom of my original post.

I think you're reading a bit too much into Jasnah.  While I haven't listened to the livestream you're referencing, nothing you've said would preclude Jasnah from being in Group 2.  Saying there are a "couple of Jasnah viewpoints" is a very vague statement.  Group 2 being very involved is also very vague.  To me, it implies the Group 2 people are doing something very complex and self contained, not that both characters have large numbers of POV chapters.  If Group 2 is Jasnah and Shallan, then it could be that Shallan has 80% of the POVs and Jasnah, while still in most Shallan POVs, has only 20% of the Group 2 POVs.  That would be similar to how those two have been written up to this point.  The WoB [27] does says to expect a moderate amount of Szeth, Eshonai, Adolin, Jasnah, and Navani.  That said, up to this point Jasnah and Navani have had very few POVs relative to the other "moderate" characters (if you count Venli/Eshonai together).  Other characters who are not on the list at all have had more POVs.  That could mean they will play catch up in RoW and/or SA5 (which seems to make sense for Navani at least).  Or, it could mean that the "amounts" Sanderson is talking about is more like on screen time and story importance rather than just POVs.

The more I think about all this, the more I just think there is only so much we can actually gather from the hints and clues that have been given.  Everything's just so vague and could be interpreted so many different ways.  I feel like we can lock in one or two characters, but the rest I think are too hard to really call meaningfully.

Here's my suggestion that could possibly make your first post more easily digested - In your list of possible characters for each group, use your WOB reference numbers that you reference to come to each decision.  It's really tough to understand certain items that are there without diving pretty deep into the discussion.  For example you have only Kaladin, Shallan, and Adolin as possible candidates for Group 2 which seems a little restrictive.

[Chiberty]

5 hours ago, agrabes said:

The more I think about all this, the more I just think there is only so much we can actually gather from the hints and clues that have been given.  Everything's just so vague and could be interpreted so many different ways.  I feel like we can lock in one or two characters, but the rest I think are too hard to really call meaningfully.

That is correct. Technically, none of these are locked in completely. Navani is the most locked in. After her are Dalinar and Venli. The others all kind of depend on each other, so they can't really be ordered in terms of certainty. The idea of this is not to determine what the only possible solution is; the point of this is to determine which possibilities are the best fit to all of the information we've been given. Until we get more concrete, finalized information, the best we can do is to make reasonable assumptions on each piece of info. Even though we can't determine anything for certain, making use of all of our information will get us much more likely possibilities.

5 hours ago, agrabes said:

I think you're reading a bit too much into Jasnah.  While I haven't listened to the livestream you're referencing, nothing you've said would preclude Jasnah from being in Group 2.  Saying there are a "couple of Jasnah viewpoints" is a very vague statement.  Group 2 being very involved is also very vague.  To me, it implies the Group 2 people are doing something very complex and self contained, not that both characters have large numbers of POV chapters.  If Group 2 is Jasnah and Shallan, then it could be that Shallan has 80% of the POVs and Jasnah, while still in most Shallan POVs, has only 20% of the Group 2 POVs.  That would be similar to how those two have been written up to this point.  The WoB [27] does says to expect a moderate amount of Szeth, Eshonai, Adolin, Jasnah, and Navani.  That said, up to this point Jasnah and Navani have had very few POVs relative to the other "moderate" characters (if you count Venli/Eshonai together).  Other characters who are not on the list at all have had more POVs.  That could mean they will play catch up in RoW and/or SA5 (which seems to make sense for Navani at least).  Or, it could mean that the "amounts" Sanderson is talking about is more like on screen time and story importance rather than just POVs.

I added a transcription of that question into the spoiler at the bottom of the original post.

This is entirely possible, and I would not be surprised if it was the case. The only reason I narrowed it down from there is because a fairly basic assumption was able to do so, that of Group 2 characters having a moderate amount of viewpoints. As said above, there are only three characters that we can really be very confident about with our current information. Making these types of assumptions, however, simplifies things greatly, while not reducing the likelihood very much.

You don't have to agree with that assumption, but it is a relatively easy one to resolve. If someone were to ask Brandon if he meant that the Group 2 characters have a moderate number of viewpoints, he would be pretty likely to answer it, as it is taking the form of a clarification question. Of course, it is not desirable to interrupt Brandon from his writing, but he does have things like his recent Q&A livestreams, so it would be good if someone asked something like that at one of those times. It doesn't have any direct spoilers, and it seems to be mainly clarification, but it has the potential to give us a large chunk of information.

5 hours ago, agrabes said:

Here's my suggestion that could possibly make your first post more easily digested - In your list of possible characters for each group, use your WOB reference numbers that you reference to come to each decision.  It's really tough to understand certain items that are there without diving pretty deep into the discussion.  For example you have only Kaladin, Shallan, and Adolin as possible candidates for Group 2 which seems a little restrictive.

I would do that, but each one of those bullet points would need a handful of those references because most of them rely on each other, so I tried to put each the explanations just before it, hoping that the connections would be clearer that way. I'm afraid that doing that might just make it even more cluttered.

Having only those few candidates in Group 2 is one of those things that is based on the assumption that the Group 2 characters will get a moderate number of viewpoints. Since the characters other than the eight listed here[27] won't be given more than a handful of viewpoints, so Character1 and 2 can't be in anything other than minor PoVs. Szeth and Jasnah also need to be in minor ones, and Navani, Dalinar, and Venli are the ones that we are the most certain about, with Navani and Venli in Group 1, and Dalinar in Group 3. I can explain those three in greater depth if needed, but they are the few that should be more clear in the original post, as they don't really depend on the others.

 

So yes, we can't determine much at all without making assumptions, but the key is to make assumptions that narrow down the possibilities more than they decrease the likelihood.

Edited April 18, 2020 by ChickenLiberty

[IcaroRibeiro]

My guesses (or rather my wishes tbh)

Group 1: Navani, Venli and Kaladin (main POV), Rlain (minor POV) 
Group 2: Shallan, Adolin, Renarin
Group 3: Dalinar, Jasnah

Interlude Character: Moash

Group 1 will focus in the war in eastern Roshar specially but not only Alethkar, with Kaladin and Navani together at start and Venli and Rlain joining the group further

Group 2 will have Shallan, Adolin and Renarin will look for the Unmade whatever it takes place, Shallan will further act as a double agent. They are bringing Renarin because of his Spren that is related with Sja-nat. That's why their arc is narrowed focused, they won't even appear in the book climax for what it seems. I bet their arc in a cliffhanger after part 4 and only be back in SA5

Group 3 will have Dalinar and Jasnah, take place mainly in Urithiru (and cities connected by Oathgates) and it's probably going to be about politics and getting some Oathgates back, with the focus on western Roshar such as Rira, Iri and Babatharnam. Szeth will advace for not look for Shinovar yet

Moash is the antagonist POV we have in each book. He's narrative is very important to see Odium's side of the Book and will complement Group 1 arc

Edited April 18, 2020 by IcaroRibeiro

[Chiberty]

3 minutes ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

My guesses (or rather my wishes tbh)

Group 1: Navani, Venli and Kaladin (main POV), Rlain (minor POV) 
Group 2: Shallan, Adolin, Renarin
Group 3: Dalinar, Jasnah

Interlude Character: Moash

Group 1 will focus in the war in eastern Roshar specially but not only Alethkar, with Kaladin and Navani together at start and Venli and Rlain joining the group further

Group 2 will have Shallan, Adolin and Renarin will look for the Unmade whatever it takes place, Shallan will further act as a double agent. They are bringing Renarin because of his Spren that is related with Sja-nat. That's why their arc is narrowed focused, they won't even appear in the book climax for what it seems. I bet their arc in a cliffhanger after part 4 and only be back in SA5

Group 3 will have Dalinar and Jasnah and it's probably going to be about politics and getting some Oathgates back, with the focus on western Roshar such as Rira, Iri and Babatharnam. Szeth will advace for not look for Shinovar yet

Moash is the antagonist POV we have in each book. He's narrative is very important to see Odium's side of the Book and will complement Group 1 arc

Group 1 has 5 characters, and Group 2 has 2, but can I take this to mean that you are of the opinion that Renarin was the character that switched from Group 2 to 1 between the 3rd and 5th Reddit updates?

Edit: What about Szeth?

Edited April 18, 2020 by ChickenLiberty

[IcaroRibeiro]

Just now, ChickenLiberty said:

Group 1 has 5 characters, and Group 2 has 2, but can I take this to mean that you are of the opinion that Renarin was the character that switched from Group 2 to 1 between the 3rd and 5th Reddit updates?

I actually think Adolin was the one who was moved. Renarin and Shallan really makes sense as pair for chasing ancient Sprend while Adolin... well not so much

[+Oltux72]

5 hours ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

My guesses (or rather my wishes tbh)

Group 1: Navani, Venli and Kaladin (main POV), Rlain (minor POV)

And here the trouble begins. I cannot make a combination of Navani & Kaladin & Venli make sense.

One of the few hard data points we have is that Venli starts out in Kholinar (even if that scene we got were technically a flashback into the time beetwen Oathbringer and Rhythm of War). One of the major plot points has to be Venli coming to terms with being a Singer, the last of her tribe (to her knowledge), a Regal and a Radiant. She is not on Odium's side, but neither is she on the human side. That conflict more or less has to be fully on screen.
Now, how and why would she get away from Kholinar? Teleport into unchartered territory? Unlikely. But then why would the KRs send a team with Kaladin and Navani into Kholnar? They suffered a major defeat there, losing their king. The city is full of screamer spren and Fused. Windrunners cannot use their Surges there. And risking Navani on a clandestine mission is madness. You'd never get Dalinar to agree to that.
If we define group#1 as the Kaladin/Navani group, Venli won't be in it.

5 hours ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

Group 2: Shallan, Adolin, Renarin
Group 3: Dalinar, Jasnah

Interlude Character: Moash

Group 1 will focus in the war in eastern Roshar specially but not only Alethkar, with Kaladin and Navani together at start and Venli and Rlain joining the group further

Again I must disagree. It makes no sense for it to contain Navani then. And we must ask ourselves why the Horneater Peaks matter. Frankly, if Navani is to leave HQ, you will have to give a good reason. Acting as a field engineer in a guerilla in Alethkar isn't a good reason.
In fact, if Rhythm of War were to have a lot of fighting in eastern Roshar, then why the time jump? It could have started a few weeks after Oathbringer. Hence if you want a group with Kaladin and Navani, it will have to be on an expedition so important or exploratory that sending Navani on it is justified.

5 hours ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

Group 2 will have Shallan, Adolin and Renarin will look for the Unmade whatever it takes place, Shallan will further act as a double agent. They are bringing Renarin because of his Spren that is related with Sja-nat. That's why their arc is narrowed focused, they won't even appear in the book climax for what it seems. I bet their arc in a cliffhanger after part 4 and only be back in SA5

That makes sense.

5 hours ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

Group 3 will have Dalinar and Jasnah, take place mainly in Urithiru (and cities connected by Oathgates) and it's probably going to be about politics and getting some Oathgates back, with the focus on western Roshar such as Rira, Iri and Babatharnam. Szeth will advace for not look for Shinovar yet

Moash is the antagonist POV we have in each book. He's narrative is very important to see Odium's side of the Book and will complement Group 1 arc

That also makes sense. But the proposals for group #2 and #3 are compatible with the data, not strongly suggested by it.

It leaves out Venli. I would propose that there is a group making diplomacy but it will be between Venli's group and Jasnah & Dalinar on the other side.

[Chiberty]

6 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

And here the trouble begins. I cannot make a combination of Navani & Kaladin & Venli make sense.

One of the few hard data points we have is that Venli starts out in Kholinar (even if that scene we got were technically a flashback into the time beetwen Oathbringer and Rhythm of War). One of the major plot points has to be Venli coming to terms with being a Singer, the last of her tribe (to her knowledge), a Regal and a Radiant. She is not on Odium's side, but neither is she on the human side. That conflict more or less has to be fully on screen.
Now, how and why would she get away from Kholinar? Teleport into unchartered territory? Unlikely. But then why would the KRs send a team with Kaladin and Navani into Kholnar? They suffered a major defeat there, losing their king. The city is full of screamer spren and Fused. Windrunners cannot use their Surges there. And risking Navani on a clandestine mission is madness. You'd never get Dalinar to agree to that.
If we define group#1 as the Kaladin/Navani group, Venli won't be in it.

Do you have any objections to the harder points of evidence that we have on Navani and Venli that support a Group 1 placement? It is, of course, fine for you to believe that they can't be in a group together, but arguments about what the narrative should and shouldn't do generally don't lead to any sort of conclusion. Even if you are absolutely certain about something the narrative should do, I guarantee that you won't be able to convince many people of it unless you reference something more concrete. 

If your objection is having all three of Navani, Venli, and Kaladin in the same group, the most likely way for that to be reconciled is by the group not including Kaladin. If your objection is just to having Navani and Venli in the same group, that can not easily be reconciled to fit the WoBs that we have, as Navani and Venli are the ones whose group placement we know the most about.

[+Oltux72]

15 minutes ago, ChickenLiberty said:

Do you have any objections to the harder points of evidence that we have on Navani and Venli that support a Group 1 placement?

The group is too large. I have no problem at all with putting Navani in group#1. I just think that it does not go to Kholinar. Hence Venli is not in it.

The evidence you provide for Venli group#1 or in group#2 makes sense. But it seems to me that further evidence puts her outside group#1. If we combine that, she must be in group#2

15 minutes ago, ChickenLiberty said:

It is, of course, fine for you to believe that they can't be in a group together, but arguments about what the narrative should and shouldn't do generally don't lead to any sort of conclusion.

Not strictly the narrative. The location is the issue. Kaladin & Navani are not as such incompatible with Venli. They are, however, incompatible with Kholinar. Seriously, can you think of any scenario under which Dalinar would let Navani go into Kholinar?

15 minutes ago, ChickenLiberty said:

Even if you are absolutely certain about something the narrative should do, I guarantee that you won't be able to convince many people of it unless you reference something more concrete. 

If your objection is having all three of Navani, Venli, and Kaladin in the same group, the most likely way for that to be reconciled is by the group not including Kaladin. If your objection is just to having Navani and Venli in the same group, that can not easily be reconciled to fit the WoBs that we have, as Navani and Venli are the ones whose group placement we know the most about.

Could you explain that logic again? Your arguments for Navani in group#1 are pretty convincing. Your arguments for putting Venli into group#1 or #2 are also good. But the logical connection of that putting them into the same group I do not see.