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Quick Fix 43: Mysteries in the Snow


Elkanah

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Cycle 2: A Joe in the Snow

If tensions had been high before, they seemed insignificant compared to the panic finding a dead body created. Already sleep deprived and worried, the traders found it impossible to rest. How could something like this happen? The common room and hallways were awash with whispers. No one knew who to trust. About midday, Lesa called a meeting in the common room.

"Clearly we have a murderer among us." She claimed. "And we have a responsibility to remove them!" She waited for the shouts of agreement to fade before continuing. "I believe Elandera was the next to go out after LenKai." She mused.

"Let's kill her in return!" someone called. No one recognized or could identify the voice, but it put serious doubt in the hearts of others. 

"Maybe Lesa is trying to pin her own sin on someone else!" Shouted a man in captains epaulets who called himself Late.

"Joe looks pretty shifty" a voice called again. 

"What did I do?" Joe asked

"Nothing. You just seem bad." came the answer.

"He's got a point" Jehen said from the side of the room.

"You can't be serious!" Joe exclaimed, as two nearby traders hoisted him off the ground.

The crowd moved not wanting to be a part of it, but silently complicit as he was carried to the front door of the outpost. One opened it as the men threw Joe outside and quickly bolted the door.

---

So focused were they all on Joe, no one noticed Yretsym leave. This was madness. If you find one dead person is it right to kill another? They weren't even sure Joe had been the one to kill LenKai! Yretsym slipped through the heavy wooden door at the back of the common area into the kitchen hoping no one would see him go. He needed to think this through. If only he could puzzle out who the murderer actually was. He pulled out some parchment and sat at the cutting board making a list of everything they knew. He vaguely remembered what order people left in, but it would be good to cross reference that with what everyone else remembered.

He stood and began to pace, trying to organize his thoughts. He walked the seven or eight meter length of the kitchen, turned on his heel and walked back to the cutting table. This elicited no new insight, so he tried it again. Returning to the table this time, however, the paper caught his eye. It had gone blank. All his notes evaporated into thin air. He knelt under the small counter to see if his paper had simply fallen to the floor, but no. He had only brought one in here anyway. A voice came from behind startling him into bumping his head on the underside of the board. He turned to see a trader with a veil over their face. The bumped head did little to ease the pain of the knife sliding through his ribcage.

Moments later, a call for help went out from the kitchen. Another body discovered. A piece of parchment over his head pinned to the wall by a blood splattered knife. The knife was covered in ancient runes that could not be read, but the parchment contained only the aon "Eto."

--------------------------------------------------------

Later that night a message was found carved into one of the tables in the common room: 

Do all y'all know who I am?

I bet you do, I'm the crazy man!

But, do y'all know why I am?

Here's a little song for everyone,

About us Rulo's, where we've gone,

And why we do the crazy things we plan!

1st stanza of The Rulo's Ways

-------------------------------

A Joe in the Bush was lynched. He was a Trader

Xinoehp was sacrificed. He was a Trader

Elandera (1): DeTess

DeTess (1): Sart

A Joe in the Bush (2): EXPERIENCE, Devotary of Spontaneity

 

Player List

Spoiler

1. EXPERIENCE as Shard, that mysterious fellow no one seems to know anything about

2. Elandera a welcoming person

3. Xinoehp as as Yretsym one who is in tune with mysteries Trader

4. Ironfire as as Jester, Lord of Ineptitude

5. Devotary of Spontaneity as Jehen, whose distaste for the cold is overcome only by an irrational hatred of fire.

6. Zillah who enjoys chaos and mystery

7. Kynedath as Ezira, good with a bow, awful with the ladies

8. The God King as Eheshao, a shrewd trader from Kae

9. Shanerockes as Shaney Boi who is here for the fun of it

10. Rathmaskal who is 'in' in all the best ways

11. Sart as Captain Late Sign-Up. With his powers of procrastination, he'll save the day... eventually.

12. DeTess as Lesa, a trader who really should have known better than to try and get a cargo through before the proper start of spring. 

13. A Joe in the Bush as Joe who is meeting new people Trader

14. Straw who ushers in the return of the cultists

15. StrikerEZ as Shien, a man no one recognizes despite his claims to have studied at all the great universities of Arelon

16. Stink as Saotia who has traveled far and wide but will be spending the coming storm isolated in a room with us

 

Edited by Elkanah
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@Sart, I might have failed at explaining properly why i think we shouldn't trust wagon analysis as much as usual, so let me give that another go.

If we assume that the elims don't know who the other elims are:

  • If the elims actually don't know, then we'll only be using the right information to try and find them
  • If they do know who the others are, we'll not be using all the information we could be using, making things harder for us.

If we assume that the elims do know who the other elims are

  • If the elims do know, then we'll be using all the possible information to try and find them.
  • If the elims don't know, then they could get falsely cleared for leading a lynch, and people could get wrongly accused for protecting an elim.

I find this last scenario the more problematic one, so I'd prefer to assume they don't know and limit myself than to risk coming to the entirely wrong conclusions based on a wrong assumption. So unless you've got proof that the elims do know the identities of the others, I think its very dangerous to assume they do.

@EXPERIENCE, could you explain that hunch you had on joe a bit more? Also, I really recommend against following anyone's vote just because they seem good or knowledgeable. I'm good at seeming both while being neither, so its better if you make your own decisions than try to follow my own votes.

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Just catching up, finally. Sorry I wasn't around much at all C1. 

36 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@Sart, I might have failed at explaining properly why i think we shouldn't trust wagon analysis as much as usual, so let me give that another go.

If we assume that the elims don't know who the other elims are:

  • If the elims actually don't know, then we'll only be using the right information to try and find them
  • If they do know who the others are, we'll not be using all the information we could be using, making things harder for us.

If we assume that the elims do know who the other elims are

  • If the elims do know, then we'll be using all the possible information to try and find them.
  • If the elims don't know, then they could get falsely cleared for leading a lynch, and people could get wrongly accused for protecting an elim.

I find this last scenario the more problematic one, so I'd prefer to assume they don't know and limit myself than to risk coming to the entirely wrong conclusions based on a wrong assumption. So unless you've got proof that the elims do know the identities of the others, I think its very dangerous to assume they do.

@EXPERIENCE, could you explain that hunch you had on joe a bit more? Also, I really recommend against following anyone's vote just because they seem good or knowledgeable. I'm good at seeming both while being neither, so its better if you make your own decisions than try to follow my own votes.

Thank you for laying out what I was trying to say with my slap-dash post last cycle. The reason I believe we should assume they do know each other is because we will be using all the possible information. It's a big risk, big reward kind of scenario, but the risk isn't much different than what we usually face. It's already plausible for a false clear due to bussing or some other kind of manipulation. If we do assume they know the other elims when they don't, I don't think it will mean more people get wrongly accused for protecting. That happens already all of the time.

I still believe we should assume they know each other and not weed out potential clues just because we think they don't know whom to defend.

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Ok well now I feel bad that I didn't vote cause I thought it wouldn't really matter and now Joe is dead, but at the same time I can't really think of any alternatives that leave me 'satisfied' with their death.

Wow that last sentence feels wrong to type but I guess that's just SE for you.

Without reading C1 over again, I don't really think Xino did anything that we can look at and be like 'ah yes of course they killed them for X reason' but it's only C1 so we'll have to see.

Guess I'll have to start making PMs with all you peeps now :P

Also that Rulo message is uh, certainly something

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3 hours ago, Elandera said:

I still believe we should assume they know each other and not weed out potential clues just because we think they don't know whom to defend.

I can see where you're coming from, but I think that, in particular, declaring people cleared based on votes would be very dangerous because we can't be sure that's an actual way to filter villagers from elims.

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Aight so I went to look back at C1 expecting to get some like mad analysis in or something but uh

Xino kinda just made one post at the start then vamooshed.

So either there's some PM stuff going on in which case that is definitely something to maybe be aware of or the elims just didn't like that they made a confident sounding post that early in the game?

I'm tempted to throw some trust at Experience but in my own experience (see what I did there) I'm also tempted to say this this erring in the ways of a mislynch isn't that worthy of actually looking at? Idk, if only someone else could engage and we can bounce ideas :P

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Yeah, despite my repeated questioning of them, I'm not particularly suspicious of Experience right now, I'm just trying to get a good enough view on their thoughts and motivations that I can get a better read on them. And asking questions is one way to try to do that.

Anyway, I realize there's a bit of an info-drought still, but remaining quiet won't solve it. @Ironfire, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Zillah, @Kynedath, @The_God_King, @shanerockes, @Rathmaskal, @Sart, @Straw, @StrikerEZ, is there anything you wish to share? And if there isn't, who would you say you trust most and least right now?

To answer my own question, I've got a general lack of trusts, but I'm still not particularly wary of Shanerockes. Regarding supicions I'm still a bit wary of Elandera, as well as Straw. Straw mostly just because their only contribution so far was so monumentally NAI.

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22 minutes ago, EXPERIENCE said:

Quick question. What does NAI mean?

Non-Alignment Indicative. It means something does not provide any clues to someone's alignment. But if all someone posts is NAI, that is in and of itself noteworthy.

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56 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Anyway, I realize there's a bit of an info-drought still, but remaining quiet won't solve it.

I don't much information. Experience's vote seems a little convenient, but Day 1 mislynch bandwagons are not productive. I could see the Elims splitting their votes amongst people to force opinions but I can also see the contrary. As of now, I don't have a person to vote for. I have a couple of things going on for the next couple hours but I'll be back

 

@DeTess Thanks for the poke! I've been watching way too much from the shadows.

 

Eheshao stepped out of the shadows. He had been leaning up against the wall in the common room for a bit. Watching, learning, and figuring out what to do. People had been busy poking fingers and making accusations. We don't have enough information to be sure about anything and any evidence we have is circumstantial at best. I wish I could sell my stock to these people. Sadly it's in the stable and going outside would invite misfortune. Getting killed by a fanatic didn't make much sense either. Time to weed out these monsters!

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I think it would be better to assume that the elims do know who each other are. It would be better to be able to use all of our information I feel. And like Elandera said, there will always be ways to falsely clear an elim, especially with Bussing and a WGG (admittedly WGG isn't possible in this game, but in others it is a possibility). It would be more beneficial to be firing on all cylinders and clear someone than to cripple ourselves early on by not analyzing some of the most telling interactions. We would have more information which would then result in more telling interactions from there. Even if we falsely clear someone, that isn't the end of being suspicious of them. If there is anything I know then it is that SE players will always be suspicious of you, no matter what.

My biggest suspicion right now is DeTess, they could be trying to get the village to disregard some of their info. Other than that I'm not really seeing all too much to say about anyone. I don't have any big trusts or anything, and no new big revelations.

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@Kynedath (and everyone else that brought this up) what makes you so certain that the elims know who their team-mates are? I've seen several variations on the suspicion 'Tess is trying to get us to disregard information' and everytime I wonder why those that bring it up believe so strongly that that information actually exist.

I'm hardly all knowing, so if I missed something, please explain it to me ( @Devotary of Spontaneity, I remember your argument on this in our PM, but I don't think everyone that brought it up has access to that particular bit of insight).

Edited by DeTess
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1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

My biggest suspicion right now is DeTess, they could be trying to get the village to disregard some of their info. 

I don't think anyone's thoughts on elims knowing/not knowing each other is a lynchable offense. I definitely see where Tess is coming from, and I do agree that we should be careful about lynching anyone just based on who they voted for. But that is good practice in any game. 

Overall, I think it would be more helpful to agree to disagree and try to find real basis for suspicions. 

5 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@Kynedath (and everyone else that brought this up) what makes you so certain that the elims know who their team-mates are? I've seen several variations on the suspicion 'Tess is trying to getcus to disregard information' and everytime I wonder why those that bring it up believe so strongly that that information actually exist.

I'm hardly all knowing, so if I missed something, please explain it to me ( @Devotary of Spontaneity, I remember your argument on this in our PM, but I don't think everyone that broughtvit up has access to that particular aegument).

I'm not certain they know each other, but I'm not going to discount some clues just because there's the possibility they might not. 

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6 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@Kynedath (and everyone else that brought this up) what makes you so certain that the elims know who their team-mates are? I've seen several variations on the suspicion 'Tess is trying to getcus to disregard information' and everytime I wonder why those that bring it up believe so strongly that that information actually exist.

I'm hardly all knowing, so if I missed something, please explain it to me ( @Devotary of Spontaneity, I remember your argument on this in our PM, but I don't think everyone that broughtvit up has access to that particular aegument).

I got ninja'd by Elandera who said what I wanted to much more succinctly.

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7 hours ago, EXPERIENCE said:

Well, I guess I was wrong. I don't think I'm going to be voting on someone unless there is an actual reason anymore. And it was just a gut feeling, which was obviously incorrect.

Captain Hindsight here with an important objection. We probably won't have any good reasons for voting on people. We can make logical guesses, but at the end of the day, they are just guesses. We might get lucky and have a Priest, but that's not something we can rely on. Even if all we have are gut feelings, that's enough to warrant a vote. Sometimes our gut is more accurate than we imagine. Even if our gut is wrong, voting helps suss out leads, and enables more analysis. So please, vote. We cannot win if everyone sits on the fence.

To that end, we should discuss who we are voting for. The discussion today has centered around the possibility of the Followers not knowing each other. I've made my position clear, and believe that they either know each other, or have some way of learning each other's identities. The majority of the village appears to support that position. Lesa (DeTess) is the vocal minority, and is arguing that we should assume the Followers do not know each other. I wanted to kick Lesa out for this opinion, but my resolve wavers. If I were a Follower, I would follow the majority, rather than be part of the minority. Therefore, I am suspicious of Shien (StrikerEZ). They have made two posts on the subject, both favoring the majority, without adding anything else to the conversation. @StrikerEZ has been seen on the Shard today, but has not posted anything. For these reasons, my vote goes to him. I would also like to see more from @Rathmaskal, who has also been on the Shard, but hasn't posted.

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27 minutes ago, EXPERIENCE said:

I think I'm going to be voting for @Sart for now. Definitely subject to change.

Could you explain why? 

 

Another thing to keep in mind is that with a game like this, we will all be losing out on a ton of information because of PM’s. Not to say they’re bad, but it does limit information given to everyone. 

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3 hours ago, Kynedath said:

I think it would be better to assume that the elims do know who each other are. It would be better to be able to use all of our information I feel. And like Elandera said, there will always be ways to falsely clear an elim, especially with Bussing and a WGG (admittedly WGG isn't possible in this game, but in others it is a possibility). It would be more beneficial to be firing on all cylinders and clear someone than to cripple ourselves early on by not analyzing some of the most telling interactions. We would have more information which would then result in more telling interactions from there. Even if we falsely clear someone, that isn't the end of being suspicious of them. If there is anything I know then it is that SE players will always be suspicious of you, no matter what.

It technically is possible for there to be a WGG, though that would be the only reason for the elims to have a soldier. Even though the odds of Elkanah going against precedent and not starting the elims in contact with each other is not high, even the possibility of a village priest can help track down those temporarily above suspicion. I've already voted for one person who urged caution in determining whether the elims knew each other though, and I don't know if I want another lynch on the same issue.

 

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