How compatible are the Cosmere's cultures and environments with economic development?

[+Oltux72]

It has occured to me that I was asking that question in too limited a manner. After all the CR is not the only thing that matters. We were looking at these questions too much from a technological angle. That is not everything. It does not matter if something could be built if nobody could pay for it. So let's go through the worlds.

Threnody

That depends entirely on an unknown factor. Will they overcome the Shades?

First of the Sun

Nothing much known

Nalthis (or rather the two cultures we know)

Hallandren

This is problematic. Breaths are a zero-sum game. That makes me wonder whether Nalthis will have a problem with accumulating capital. If you are rich there, will you invest in your factory or buy Breaths for the Fifth Heightening?

Idris

Well, they may never produce the necessary surplus.

Sel

Arelon & Elantris

That is difficult. Do they have a need for much of an economy?

Fjordell Empire

Probably the best bet for industry on Sel. An existing trade network. Not too much government.

Rose Empire

It looks overregulated to me.

Teod

A bit small.

Scadrial

The poster child. Both continents are already there.

Roshar

Many like this world and fabrials are fascinating, but I am afraid this world has problems.

Shinovar

Dominated by a religion with numerous taboos. Also extremely insular.

Vorin Lands

Again, religion. A modern economy and a taboo against literacy are unlikely to be compatible. Also too much economic dirigism.

Azir

Overregulated. In fact the prime example of overregulation.

Iri lands

We know little. What we know looks good.

 

[Karger]

33 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

That is difficult. Do they have a need for much of an economy?

Their economy is already post scarcity in a lot of ways.  This might technically be the most advanced economy.

Everything else looks good.

[SwordNimiForPresident]

Your use of the phrase “over regulated” as some kind of catch all for economic apocalypse makes me think that you should seek some variety in your news feed.

I’ll also point out that your “poster child” economy in Era 2 is in fact a massive central government imposing huge taxes and impassible trade barriers in outlying settlements. This has put the entire continent on the brink of a civil war.

The actual best example of an advanced economy is Arelon/Elantris, pre Reod or post Raoden. All basic necessities are given as a right, and people only exchange currency for non necessities. People can spend their lives in leisure and dedicate themselves to whatever their passions are. This is likely where automation would have eventually taken our species, but instead we will all probably die in a famine or nuclear war sometime in the next few centuries.

edit: grammar

Edited February 28, 2020 by SwordNimiForPresident

[Karger]

10 minutes ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

Your use of the phrase “over regulated” as some kind of catch all for economic apocalypse makes me think that you should seek some variety in your news feed.

None of the societies except maybe scadrail have reached the global and communications level where monopoly or corporations are a problem yet.  Soceitital or legal restrictions are currently what prevents many cosmere societies from growing.

10 minutes ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

I’ll also point out that your “poster child” economy in Era 2 is in fact a massive central government imposing huge taxes and impassible trade barriers in outlying settlements. This has put the entire continent on the brink of a civil war.

Scadrail currently enjoys more wealth then any other planet in the known cosmere's existence.  Similarly the US is the richest nation in human history.  Both of these are facts but neither means that either society is perfect.

10 minutes ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

The actual best example of an advanced economy is Arelon/Elantris, pre Reod or post Raoden. All basic necessities are given as a right, and people only exchange currency for non necessities. People can spend their lives in leisure and dedicate themselves to whatever their passions are. This is likely where automation would have eventually taken our species, but instead we will all probably die in a famine or nuclear war sometime in the next few centuries.

Yes although the fact that they went to a post scarcity economy so quickly may drag their scientific understanding or innovation capabilities.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Karger

[Pathfinder]

Since this thread is analogous to the other, I will also post my response on the other thread to here:

 

3 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

Roshar already has factories. It could be said that Sebarial is an outlier, but keep in mind:

1. He isn't hiding this fact anymore

2. The technology and ability already exists (Shallan didn't marvel at the concept, she marveled that he did it without the others realizing it. So the factories are not revolutionary. They are an existing technology).

3. He is currently in Dalinar's inner circle. He will be affecting policy.

4. Fen is right up there with him, and thinks the same way. Thaylenah is a merchant culture. They are a coalition now

 

(it is a long scene so I highlighted what I feel is pertinent)

Words of Radiance page 459

She turned her attention out the window, and soon decided that this place was a warcamp in name only. The streets were straighter than you might have in a city that had grown naturally, but Shallan saw far more civilians than she did soldiers. They passed taverns, open markets, shops, and tall buildings that surely could hold a dozen different families. People crowded many of the streets. The place wasn’t as varied and vibrant as Kharbranth had been, but the buildings were of solid wood and stone, constructed up against one another to share support.

“Rounded roofs,” Shallan said.

“My engineers say they repel the winds better,” Sebarial said proudly. “Also, buildings with rounded corners and sides.”

“So many people!”

“Almost all permanent residents. I have the most complete force of tailors, artisans, and cooks in the camps. Already, I’ve set up twelve manufactories—textiles, shoes, ceramics, several mills. I control the glassblowers as well.”

Shallan turned back toward him. That pride in his voice didn’t at all match what Jasnah had written of the man. Of course, most of her notes and knowledge of the highprinces came from infrequent visits to the Shattered Plains, and none had been recent.

“From what I’ve heard,” Shallan said, “your forces are among the least successful in the war against the Parshendi.”

Sebarial got a twinkle in his eyes. “The others hunt quick income from gemhearts, but what will they spend their money on? My textile mills will soon produce uniforms at a much cheaper price than they can be shipped in for, and my farmers will provide food far more varied than what is supplied through Soulcasting. I’m growing both lavis and tallew, not to mention my hog farms.”

“You sly eel,” Shallan said. “While the others fight a war, you’ve been building an economy.”

“I’ve had to be careful,” he confided, leaning in. “I didn’t want them to notice what I was doing at first.”

“Clever,” Shallan said. “But why are you telling me?”

“You’ll see it anyway, if you’re to act as one of my clerks. Besides, the secrecy doesn’t matter anymore. The manufactories are now producing, and my armies barely go on a single plateau run a month. I have to pay Dalinar’s fines for avoiding them and forcing him to send someone else, but it’s worth the cost. Anyway, the smarter highprinces have figured out what I’m up to. The others just think I’m a lazy fool.”

“And so you’re not a lazy fool?”

“Of course I am!” he exclaimed. “Fighting is too much work. Besides, soldiers die, and that makes me pay out to their families. It’s just useless all around.” He looked out the window. “I saw the secret three years back. Everyone was moving here, but nobody thought of the place as permanent—despite the value of those gemhearts, which ensured that Alethkar would always have a presence here. . . .” He smiled.

[+ILuvHats]

Innovation and technology progress quickest under adversity external to nations as a whole, such as war. Individually, adversity tends to impede growth since people who are simply struggling to survive, to find enough food to eat, to find shelter, lack the time necessary for innovation. Meanwhile, a total lack of threats to people as a whole encourages stagnation, even if everyone’s individual basic needs are met. Even though leisure time is no longer an issue, there is no longer a driving force for development. There will be progress, and more than in the first scenario, but it will be slower than it could be. Times during which nations as a whole are threatened, such as war, tend to foster the greatest technological and industrial growth. Internal unity is encouraged, so basic necessities are more widely distributed so that individuals can contribute to countering the external threat. Meanwhile, there’s also a lot of incentive to develop new technologies that can address the issue or threat. Keeping this in mind, here are my thoughts on some of the most significant civilizations/worlds. 

Scadrial: The Elendel Basin probably progressed a lot in the years immediately after the catacendre. The lush and hospitable environment alleviated any lack of basic needs, but the reduced population and lack of infrastructure fostered technological growth. At some point, though, civilization became comfortable and began to lack motivation for growth, so innovation began to decline. Southern Scadrial, on the other hand, was met with a hostile environment. Thanks to Kelsier’s intervention, they were eventually able to reach a point where total destruction was no longer inevitable, and basic needs were met. Yet, the ever-present threat of dying to cold combined with conflicts between civilizations and whatever/whoever the Deniers of Masks are encouraged technological innovation until current day Scadrial. 

Going forward, the North is going to experience a technological boom thanks to trading with the South, and the increasing threat of Trell will encourage the world as a whole to step up industrialization and innovation.

Roshar: Already in the throes of a fabrial revolution, the true desolation will be met with unprecedented growth. With humanity’s destruction at the doorstep, social traditions that inhibit growth, such as Vorin gender divisions, will collapse. In addition, there’s a new influx of knowledge about spren (integral to fabrials) with the resurgence of the Radiants. Roshar about to go from just beginning an industrial revolution to Cold War era technology in a matter of decades. The gap between books 5 and 6 in particular may be a renaissance period. Hypothetically, if Odium’s forces are removed for that period, yet it’s widely known that they will soon return, people will do everything they can to prepare for that inevitability, including a lot of technological growth.

Sel, Elantris: Although they were definitely post-scarcity pre-Reod era, there were some limiting factors in their technological/magical growth. Number one, the population of Elantrians is very low compared to other civilizations, and their geographic influence is also limited. Number two, a post scarcity civilization lacks incentives for change. A lot of innovation will occur due to a surplus of leisure time, but without urgency for growth or the ideological diversity that conflict encourages, innovation will stagnate to an extent.

Going forward, considering a new war with the Fjordell empire, big tech/magic boom.

3 hours ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

This is likely where automation would have eventually taken our species, but instead we will all probably die in a famine or nuclear war sometime in the next few centuries.

I won’t disagree with your nihilistic belief, since we could all easily die in a few centuries. However, at this point in time the two methods of self-destruction you mentioned don’t look terribly likely. If a nuclear war were going to happen, the Cold War would have been a prime time. As it is, tensions have eased to an extent, and we can be hopeful that nuclear disarmament could be achieved. We’re not out of the blue yet, but it’s hardly the most likely end-of-world scenario considering our current state. I’ll also disagree that famine is likely. Unless by famine you meant resource depletion in general, and not just lack of food. Famine used to be a huge potential issue, but thanks to Borlaug’s Green Revolution and declining birth rates in developed countries, the situation is no longer as dire. And we also aren’t too likely to outpace food production, since the world population is projected to plateau around 2100 with a population of 11 billion. Currently, I believe the most widely theorized means of humanity’s destruction are global warming/pollution and depletion of energy production as oil reserves run out. As resources grow scarcer, a nuclear war could occur as a result of rising tensions, but in such a scenario, I’d say the lack of resources is the underlying cause of destruction as opposed to the war. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by ILuvHats

[SwordNimiForPresident]

36 minutes ago, ILuvHats said:

 Currently, I believe the most widely theorized means of humanity’s destruction are global warming/pollution and depletion of energy production as oil reserves run out. As resources grow scarcer, a nuclear war could occur as a result of rising tensions, but in such a scenario, I’d say the lack of resources is the underlying cause of destruction as opposed to the war. 

I thought it was implicit that climate change would be the driving factor for said famine or nuclear apocalypse. Sorry for not being more clear.

[+ILuvHats]

25 minutes ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

I thought it was implicit that climate change would be the driving factor for said famine or nuclear apocalypse. Sorry for not being more clear.

Ah. If that was your underlying assumption, then that makes total sense. I just get a little miffed when people bring up famine in particular as a doomsday scenario. The mindset that we’ll die because overpopulation will drive us all to starvation is somewhat outdated. Of course, famine as an outgrowth of the energy crisis is totally to be expected. Small distinction, but in my mind significant. Anyways, sorry for jumping on you like that. Seems like we’re on the same page after all.

[DiePie]

Threnody:

We aren't sure about the economy threnody currently, besides that the people are divided into 2 groups: homesteaders and the people living in the forts (farmers and the people who live in cities). The people seem to be doing rather well for themselves, and despite a note on the Threnody system mentioning that some basic goods are not as abundant as they should, these people seem to live lives rather similar to that of people in colonial America (I think that's part of the inspiration with the homesteaders, since in most other places people congregated into small farming villages), and extrapolating that it is possible to say that these people (once settled) will be on average richer, more literate etc. than their Mainland ancestors. Things like this (a decently educated and highly mobile middle/lower class) help improve technological advancement tremendously, and on top of that, the Threnodies have multiple common enemies to rally behind and maintain unity and give a stressor to increase technological advancement as well (the Shades and the Evil).

 

First of the Sun:

Quote

Dusk ran his fingers over a broken chunk of wood, stenciled with the words Northern interests trading company.

Quote

 But where was their ship? The great steam-powered vessel with an iron hull they claimed could rebuff the attacks of even the deepest of shadows.

Quote

things once restricted to the wealthy are now within reach of ordinary people.

AU pages 495, 496 and 506 respectively (paperback version, if that makes a difference). From the story Sixth of the Dusk it is shown that the people of First of the sun have steam power and ironclads, showing they have an industrial revolution themselves. They also have trading companies, ones that are rich enough to build these ironclads, signifying that they have a strong, industrial economy. The fact that "ordinary people" are now richer indicates the creation and of a middle class, putting First of the Sun in the later stages of an industrial revolution. Though it should be noted that events in the story take place a while after the front half of the SA and W&W.

 

Nalthis:

10 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

This is problematic. Breaths are a zero-sum game. That makes me wonder whether Nalthis will have a problem with accumulating capital. If you are rich there, will you invest in your factory or buy Breaths for the Fifth Heightening?

Breaths also don't take any man-hours (the best way of measuring the relative worth of something, or the efficiency at which it is made) to make, they do, however, act as an easy way of redistributing wealth from the rich to the poor. Yes, this does mean that the upper class won't accumulate as much capital. However, as we will see on Scadrial, that is absolutely great for an economy, since the lower classes will buy proportionally more than the rich, and will invest it into industries that are better for the economy. Richer lower classes also lead to more technological advancements. Though most of the trade (through Hallandren at least) is owned by the priests. However, trade is still limited (considering that Idris is still poor even though they have a monopoly on passes that many in Hallandren were willing to fight a war over). So the economy of Nalthis is probably still pre-classical.

 

Sel:

5 hours ago, ILuvHats said:

Sel, Elantris: Although they were definitely post-scarcity pre-Reod era, there were some limiting factors in their technological/magical growth. Number one, the population of Elantrians is very low compared to other civilizations, and their geographic influence is also limited. Number two, a post scarcity civilization lacks incentives for change. A lot of innovation will occur due to a surplus of leisure time, but without urgency for growth or the ideological diversity that conflict encourages, innovation will stagnate to an extent.

Going forward, considering a new war with the Fjordell empire, big tech/magic boom.

9 hours ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

The actual best example of an advanced economy is Arelon/Elantris, pre Reod or post Raoden. All basic necessities are given as a right, and people only exchange currency for non necessities. People can spend their lives in leisure and dedicate themselves to whatever their passions are. This is likely where automation would have eventually taken our species, but instead we will all probably die in a famine or nuclear war sometime in the next few centuries.

This seems like a good summary of Arelon besides that once Elantris' position stabilizes, they will begin to stagnate scientifically. Also, Teod would follow a similar pattern to Arelon because of how intertwined their governments are after Raoden. However they are much more mercantile than the Arelon, so (combined with the labor shortage they have because of their small population) they may begin to industrialize sometime (though the chances are really small since they have a long way to go).

The Fjordell have an extremely powerful and zealous theocracy, imagine Europe lead directly by the pope. This would completely stifle technological/scientific advancement as religious institutions are rarely accepting of new ideas or ways of thought (which isn't helped by the fact that the system that its church promotes is based off of feudalism). 

The Rose Empire seems to be inspired heavily by pre-industrial China, with a large bureaucracy (instead an aristocracy) and strong regulations & law code. However, regulations like the ones in pre-industial China did not stifle technological advancement in China. China suffered from the lack of any external pressures/rivals (which is something that the Rose Empire seems to also have), though China did still have numerous technological and scientific advancements, from the printing press to gunpowder, to watertight hulls and the compass, China has had it's fair share of science, so I would put it as the most likely to have an industrial revolution.

 

Scadrial:

The Elendel basin is the only industrialized society we've seen in depth so far in the Cosmere. It has basically hit an extended gilded age with 20th century technology. So of course it makes sense that underground groups try and overthrow the corrupt and ineffective government. While this wasn't so bad as the gilded age in our timeline (the noble houses don't form monopolies over entire industries), they still have a stranglehold on the economy of the Elendel Basin. They will probably reform into a more sustainable 20th century economy because of how Brandon is taking the series though, so in the future the Elendel Basin will be an economic powerhouse, and probably become very similar to 60s America.

I don't know much about the Southerners, but they don't seem to be as industrially advanced as the Elendel are, though they have the medallions and other magitec marvels so they will advance at a similar pace to those in the Elendel Basin

 

Roshar:

Shinover is extremely isolationist, so they probably will stick with their relatively equitable and prosperous economy, which while it has stagnated, doesn't seem to have any problems.

8 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

but what will they spend their money on? My textile mills will soon produce uniforms at a much cheaper price than they can be shipped in for, and my farmers will provide food far more varied than what is supplied through Soulcasting. I’m growing both lavis and tallew, not to mention my hog farms.”

I really should have caught this during my readthrough. This puts Roshar at around 17th-18th century industrially, since manufactories were the beginning of the industrial revolution. Vorinism (the most influential religion on Roshar) is also completely subjugated to the whims of the aristocracy, to the point that they are technically owned by the nobles. Along with this, there is a renaissance of magitec as Dawnchant is translated and old fabrials are re-discovered; and there is a war that will unite the world and includes an arms race. If Roshar survives the Desolation, then they will be in a perfect position to industrialize and strengthen their economy. 

10 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Overregulated. In fact the prime example of overregulation.

Azir is Comically overregulated, with laws and civil service exams that are so long and detailed that their only purpose is comic relief. But at the end of the day, only one place has to industrialize to completely remake the world order.

yeah we don't know much about the Iri.

[jamesbondsmith]

On 2/28/2020 at 10:59 PM, Karger said:

Scadrail currently enjoys more wealth then any other planet in the known cosmere's existence.  Similarly the US is the richest nation in human history.  Both of these are facts but neither means that either society is perfect.

I'd argue that the US has pretty horrific income inequality, which makes it a pretty good analogue to Era 2 Scadrial (but possibly not the way that you're implying). The Basin is so fertile that no-one has bothered to figure out how to irrigate the Roughs, which I'm presuming means many outside the Basin have to put more effort into subsistence. 

I'm not sure we know much for certain about the economic status of other planets. Roshar has multiple nations, Sel has several nations as well (including one with enough resources to go on a quest of world domination), whereas Scadrial has one economically unequal region and another that we don't know all that much about economically.

[DiePie]

4 hours ago, jamesbondsmith said:

I'm not sure we know much for certain about the economic status of other planets. Roshar has multiple nations, Sel has several nations as well (including one with enough resources to go on a quest of world domination), whereas Scadrial has one economically unequal region and another that we don't know all that much about economically.

We don't know a lot, but we can extrapolate based on what Brandon reveals: e.g. First of the Sun is in the late industrial age (potentially farther along then Scadrial is in era 2), because we see steamships and a growing middle class, so assuming that First of the Sun first went through something resembling a gilded age (which I assume because Brandon seems to use economic development as a linear process that is analogous to what happened on earth), then moved on to a period where income is extremely equal (which is when a middle class grows).

Scadrial can be applied to a similar process, we see factories and examples of extreme income inequality (even dissidents and political extremists) along with high amounts of corruption; and since Brandon has most certainly said that Scadrial is the most Earth-like planet by these standards, we can place it definitively in the Gilded age, except without the strangling monopolies (aristocratic business-owners sort of take their place). So Scadrial is extremely reminiscent of the US during the late 18th century, with extreme income inequality and large businesses that are strangling the economy, however, the roughs are based on the American Wild wests, and the homesteaders who live out there probably have similar (or better) standards of living then their counterparts in the basin.

Roshar is a weird one, it's probably one of Brandon's most fantastical worlds, and it's economic development very different than that on earth. Based on what we can see of living conditions in Kaladin's home town (nobody gets to starve, and most people seem to have a fair amount of wealth for the time) Roshar is surprisingly wealthy considering the adverse conditions (highstorms). AND they have manufactories, but no industrialized agriculture. Though this seems to be because of the labor-intensive and specific nature of Rosharan crops (practically just big melons with wheat grains in them). Life probably isn't too good for them though.

Yeah, Elantris could probably win an offensive war because of it's infinite supply of resources and the immortal nature of the Elantrians means that generals could become insanely good. But this would require very good leadership and management, though they are about to go into a defensive war against the fjorden, so the use of Aons could bleed their enemies dry in the mountains while they prepare a counterstrike.