Quick Fix 42: Alcatraz vs. the Watakotse Infiltration

[The_God_King]

3 hours ago, CadCom said:

My vote for this cycoe will start on The God King for their comments that appeared to be protecting kidpen on D1. That and I had a PM get passed along to them through a third party suggesting I strongly suspected them. Then I was attacked again, so that strengthens my suspicions. (I'll double check now if the message actually got passed along.) 

Yea... no message got passed along. So you probably should’ve waited to throw that in my face. I didn’t defend kidpen the first day I just didn’t like the random nature of his death. It was good he was an elim or Elkanah would've probably been lynched because he swung the vote. As I’ve said before I could have saved him with a vote but I didn’t. This doesn’t clear me but it doesn’t solidify my guilt either 
 

There’s no reason to vote for you because you’re either infinitely cunning or not a traitor. I don’t have any suspicions at the moment and I’m still working out some stuff.

 

edit

fixed grammar

Edited January 30, 2020 by The_God_King
Fixed grammar

[Elkanah]

 

5 hours ago, CadCom said:

My vote for this cycoe will start on The God King for their comments that appeared to be protecting kidpen on D1. That and I had a PM get passed along to them through a third party suggesting I strongly suspected them. Then I was attacked again, so that strengthens my suspicions. (I'll double check now if the message actually got passed along.) 

1 hour ago, The_God_King said:

Yea... no message got passed along. So you probably should’ve waited to throw that in my face.

That's on me, I can explain more in PM's. Sorry. -Actually, here is as good as there. I told TGK that I was in contact with some who heavily suspected him and I gave reasons that included these. I didn't use your name, @CadCom because you were neither the first nor the last to express suspicion of the God King. I'm sorry I misunderstood the play to see if he would target you for a kill. @The_God_King, I think it's hardly fair to say giving reasons for suspecting you is "throwing it in your face." I believe I did tell you people suspected you and suggesting that we not lynch kidpen was among the reasons. I know if I had made the same suggestion you did, I'd have been lynched. I don't think I mentioned your tone in our PM's, but every post feels so defensive. It's probably because you're not used to having your messages analyzed, but it does give an eliminator vibe. I still don't think you are one, but I understand why others do. This is all true

1 hour ago, Zillah said:

Yes Elkanah had a role in the D1 Lynch. However if they were a villager it was nearly wholly luck. No abilities or lenses had been in effect yet, and everyone admitted to being scrambled and unsure of anything. If they were an elim, voting for one of their partners immediately would gain credibility. Voting against could pull them into question if and when Kidpen was Lynched, and it was learned that they tipped the initial vote against. I had more evidence against Elkanah through PM's than I did the others. 

You are right that it was entirely luck. I had no idea that Kidpen was evil, and while if I was an eliminator trying to throw him under the bus to gain trust, now that we know Venture was not an elim, the easy choice was for me to kill Venture. This is especially true because the credibility I gained me lasted about half of a cycle, and I'd rather have my teammate, over half a cycle of trust and a proven villager. Also True

5 hours ago, CadCom said:

Well, as you can all see, I'm immortal. 

Okay, We believe in your WGG, you can stop now.  This is satirical. Treat it how you want 

On second thought, go ahead and keep attacking yourself! It's working just fine for me 

4 hours ago, CadCom said:

Oh, one more thing, based on my last post. If venture claimed to you, please let me know, either here in thread or the PM.  If he didn't claim to anyone, then I would be more willing to believe that the votes on him are due to the reasons claimed in thread. I would also expect at least one of those players is an elim. 

He did not claim to me, but I probably should have trusted him more anyway. We did exchange information on what lenses we held.

1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

Yeah, in essence it was a play to get votes on people other than me. I didn't feel good voting for Venture at all, I got a village vibe from them and Elkanah was another player with votes on them. Although like I said, something about their last post before I voted on them felt off. 

That's kind of what I expected. That and it was an opportunity to retaliate. Overall I find it NAI. I wanted it to feel a little off to generate more discussion, which ended with everyone voting and giving us two lists  We have those who voted for Venture and those who voted against. Back to true

Feruchemical Skybreaker, why did you vote for Venture? @Feruchemical Skybreaker

I promise more to come, but much later. We'll have to see.

 

[Rathmaskal]

1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

I feel like someone who voted for Venture last cycle is an eliminator, maybe even two of them. I think we should focus on that group of people rather than the whole thread for now, because the Venture lynch gave us a lot of information and I feel like I have some leads that are more solid than before.

You're making a mistake with that assertion that I often make.  Look at it this way.  We have 10 people remaining in the game, 5 of whom voted on Venture.  So, half the players.  If we're assuming (which I think is a reasonable assumption) that there were 3 elims to start the game, then we have 2 remaining.

Possibilities:

• 0 elims voted on Venture - we completely whiff on finding an elim
• 1 elim voted on Venture - we may increase our odds a touch if this is the case since even though the odds of randomly finding an elim are the same, we'll have better scrutiny on the 5 players who voted and potentially be better able to find the elim hiding amongst them.
• 2 (both) elims voted on Venture - we definitely increase our odds of finding an elim

There are various reasons why each of these combinations may have happened...but unless you think Elkanah is an elim, there's no reason to assume one over any of the others...and at that point, that would be a better lynch target than I am.  *ninja Elkanah*  I think that's it for the moment.

[Kynedath]

21 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

You're making a mistake with that assertion that I often make.  Look at it this way.  We have 10 people remaining in the game, 5 of whom voted on Venture.  So, half the players.  If we're assuming (which I think is a reasonable assumption) that there were 3 elims to start the game, then we have 2 remaining.

Possibilities:

• 0 elims voted on Venture - we completely whiff on finding an elim
• 1 elim voted on Venture - we may increase our odds a touch if this is the case since even though the odds of randomly finding an elim are the same, we'll have better scrutiny on the 5 players who voted and potentially be better able to find the elim hiding amongst them.
• 2 (both) elims voted on Venture - we definitely increase our odds of finding an elim

There are various reasons why each of these combinations may have happened...but unless you think Elkanah is an elim, there's no reason to assume one over any of the others...and at that point, that would be a better lynch target than I am.  *ninja Elkanah*  I think that's it for the moment.

That's true, but this is touching on the monty hall problem where the probability of an eliminator being within a certain group isn't random but instead relies on the probability of of something that happened beforehand. In this case the probability of an eliminator being in those five players is dependent on who an eliminator would vote for. Bastille is a great player for the eliminators to target and there are plenty of reasons they would have known that Venture is an eliminator with all of the information gathering roles in this game, as well as PMs being completely open. The chances of one of the second two possibilities being true is higher than the first possibility you outlined.

[The_God_King]

@Elkanah I’m going to stand behind what I said. I made three posts and everyone thought I was a traitor. One figuring out what the heck was going on, one defending a rng lynch and another defending that post. If people suspected me for anything else then I don’t what it was! There’s my defensive side. Preservation preserve me! (Oh wait wrong world haha)

Offense time. Elkanah you’ve been switching votes faster than a caffeinated squirrel, you’re definitely pulling a bunch of strings in the PMs and your vote last round was suspect. anyone who voted for venture is up for grabs but everyone’s reasoning was so different it will take some time to weed out any elims in that group, and I have no one I suspect even though there are at least 2 people on the elim team. @StrikerEZ voted with CadCom so he’s probably in the clear.
 

the reason I’m so defensive is that I’m getting a second to breath. I feel that everyone’s, “Oh TGK said this first round with 5 minutes left. He gets violently turned down but holds his ground on his stance. He must be evil!” The quote is definitely not real but describes my situation a bit and should explain my frustration 

 

edit fixed a word

Edited January 30, 2020 by The_God_King
Fixed a word

[Rathmaskal]

23 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

That's true, but this is touching on the monty hall problem where the probability of an eliminator being within a certain group isn't random but instead relies on the probability of of something that happened beforehand. In this case the probability of an eliminator being in those five players is dependent on who an eliminator would vote for. Bastille is a great player for the eliminators to target and there are plenty of reasons they would have known that Venture is an eliminator with all of the information gathering roles in this game, as well as PMs being completely open. The chances of one of the second two possibilities being true is higher than the first possibility you outlined.

I disagree.

First, I don't think it's the Monty Hall problem at all...unless you have more knowledge than you're sharing right now.

Second, If that was a V/V lynch, I'd say the third possibility is the least likely.

[Feruchemical Skybreaker]

24 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Feruchemical Skybreaker, why did you vote for Venture? @Feruchemical Skybreaker

 

If I may point out that more people than me voted for Venture. And it is definitely not enough evidence to claim that I am an elim.

 

Now, as for Elkanah. He told both The_God_King and I what roll he was. When The_ God_King and I were in a PM we figured out that he lied to one of us or both of us.

[Kynedath]

17 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

I disagree.

First, I don't think it's the Monty Hall problem at all...unless you have more knowledge than you're sharing right now.

Second, If that was a V/V lynch, I'd say the third possibility is the least likely.

Okay, well it's not exactly like the month hall problem, but it is similar in that the probability of one thing (the elims having info gathering roles or a lucky PM that would lead them to finding Bastille) affects the probability of another thing (eliminators being among the five who voted on Venture). Maybe I shouldn't have used that analogy, the more I think about it the less it works. But my point still stands that I think the elims (at least one of them) are very likely to be in those five.

10 minutes ago, Feruchemical Skybreaker said:

If I may point out that more people than me voted for Venture. And it is definitely not enough evidence to claim that I am an elim.

 

Now, as for Elkanah. He told both The_God_King and I what roll he was. When The_ God_King and I were in a PM we figured out that he lied to one of us or both of us.

Now this is fascinating! @Elkanah would you like to comment on this?

[CadCom]

1 hour ago, The_God_King said:

Yea... no message got passed along. So you probably should’ve waited to throw that in my face. I didn’t defend kidpen the first day I just didn’t like the random nature of his death. It was good he was an elim or Elkanah would've probably been lynched because he swung the vote. As I’ve said before I could have saved him with a vote but I didn’t. This doesn’t clear me but it doesn’t solidify my guilt either 

Hmmm. Fair enough. Kynedath may be a good alternative for the lynch then. Or maybe rath. The God King. 

48 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

That's true, but this is touching on the monty hall problem where the probability of an eliminator being within a certain group isn't random but instead relies on the probability of of something that happened beforehand. In this case the probability of an eliminator being in those five players is dependent on who an eliminator would vote for. Bastille is a great player for the eliminators to target and there are plenty of reasons they would have known that Venture is an eliminator with all of the information gathering roles in this game, as well as PMs being completely open. The chances of one of the second two possibilities being true is higher than the first possibility you outlined.

The problem with this logic is that I'm fairly certain no one knew what role Venture had. There is a possibility that someone happened to scan his role, but if that were the case, they would have to be an elim, otherwise they wouldn't have wanted to lynch him. 

33 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

@Elkanah I’m going to stand behind what I said. I made three posts and everyone thought I was a traitor. One figuring out what the heck was going on, one defending a rng lynch and another defending that post. If people suspected me for anything else then I don’t what it was! There’s my defensive side. Preservation preserve me! (Oh wait wrong world haha)

Offense time. Elkanah you’ve been switching votes faster than a caffeinated squirrel, you’re definitely pulling a bunch of strings in the PMs and your vote last round was suspect. anyone who voted for venture is up for grabs but everyone’s reasoning was so different it will take some time to weed out any elims in that group, and I have no one I suspect even though there are at least 2 people on the elim team. @StrikerEZ voted with CadCom so he’s probably in the clear.
 

the reason I’m so defensive is that I’m not being a second to breath. I feel that everyone’s, “Oh TGK said this first round with 5 minutes left. He gets violently turned down but holds his ground on his stance. He must be evil!” The quote is definitely not real but describes my situation a bit and should explain my frustration 

I like your fire! It's fresh and different than what I'm used to in SE, which makes me have to adapt how I play, which I love. Keep it up!

I'm fairly certain Elkanah is not an eliminator, and the elims are just laughing at us targeting so viciously two fellow villagers. 

I wouldn't say that Striker's vote clears them, as I would be a perfect person for an elim to vote alongside in order to help clear them. Especially since the elim team would have known that Venture wasn't an elim, and if I'm right about Elkanah, that means the second place candidate was also not an elim. 

[DeTess]

I'm going to go almost line by line on this one quote by Zillah as there's a lot to unpack.

5 hours ago, Zillah said:

@DeTess I would like to point out that you yourself was one who voted against Venture, along with four others.

Well, yes, that's a matter of public record. Is there anything more you wanted to add regarding my decision to vote on Venture?

Quote

I personally provided reasoning as to why I didn't believe Venture was an eliminator, which wouldn't make sense should I be one myself.

Disagree on your defense not making sense if you where an eliminator (also, based on your post it sounds like you're defending yourself from an accusation of being an elim, which is not what I accused you of, I merely asked for clarification on why you thought Elkanah could be an elim). You seem to already have a grasp of the tactic of bussing (more on that in a second). Another common tactic for elims is that of 'pocketing', where they go out of their way to defend a villager to try and gain their trust. And if that defense fails and the villager gets lynched, it allows the elim to say 'I told you so' and try to appear village using the argument you present here.

Quote

Yes Elkanah had a role in the D1 Lynch. However if they were a villager it was nearly wholly luck. No abilities or lenses had been in effect yet, and everyone admitted to being scrambled and unsure of anything. If they were an elim, voting for one of their partners immediately would gain credibility.

This is true, but such credibility is generally not worth the life of an active team-mate when there are reasonable alternatives, such as Venture.

Quote

Voting against could pull them into question if and when Kidpen was Lynched, and it was learned that they tipped the initial vote against. I had more evidence against Elkanah through PM's than I did the others. 

Agreed, but voting against a team-mate when it's possible to make a sensible argument (and I'd say such an argument could definitely have been made against venture) is the more logical play, as later suspicion could be fought down (note, fro example, that the god king has yet to be lynched) I don't believe Elkanah is 100% cleared, but I trust them a lot more than anyone else in the game save cadcom.

2 hours ago, Feruchemical Skybreaker said:

Now, as for Elkanah. He told both The_God_King and I what roll he was. When The_ God_King and I were in a PM we figured out that he lied to one of us or both of us.

Lying about your role in PM's isn't unheard off for villagers to do, especially if you're trying to feel out someone's alignment. That having been said, I would be curious to learn what he claimed, as I got a half claim out of him as well.

edit:

3 hours ago, Kynedath said:

That's true, but this is touching on the monty hall problem where the probability of an eliminator being within a certain group isn't random but instead relies on the probability of of something that happened beforehand. In this case the probability of an eliminator being in those five players is dependent on who an eliminator would vote for. Bastille is a great player for the eliminators to target and there are plenty of reasons they would have known that Venture is an eliminator with all of the information gathering roles in this game, as well as PMs being completely open. The chances of one of the second two possibilities being true is higher than the first possibility you outlined.

I disagree with this, somewhat. Let me try to explain (I'm tired though, so this might not make a lot of sense).

First some assumptions: alle else being equal, the elims would prefer not to gang up on the same player in the lynch if its going to be a mislynch. Also, let's assume that there's 2 elims left.

Based on those two assumptions, there'd likely be about 1 elim in the group voting on Venture, and 1 elim among the other votes. In other words, all Else being equal, focusing one one group over the other doesn't achieve anything for the village.

Now, let's look at the two scenarios that might cause the elims to gang up. First among these is if an elim is at risk of being lynched. If that was the case here, one of Elkanah or Kynedath would have to be an elim. However, neither of them voted on Venture, so this scenario clearly doesn't work.

The other scenario is that the elims knew about venture's role. This brings with it two problems though. The first is about how they knew. If we assume that kidpen submitted the kill, and that both other elims had ways to determine someone's role, there's a 25% they'd pick venture in their first round of scans. These assumptions are pretty generous though, and I think it's far more likely that only one of them had a way to determine roles.

The other way they could have known is if Venture had claimed to them in a PM. Cadcom mentioned that they knew, and I can see why Venture might confide in them. I don't really see why he'd confide in anyone else though (except maybe Elkanah, but as mentioned, he didn't vote on Venture). The elims could have read the PM using the translator's lenses, but that'd only work if Venture named himself in the PM in which he claimed ( @CadCom, did he?).

Then there's the second problem with assuming that the elims knew, and that is 'why didn't they just kill him?' It's less risky than a lynch, as Venture could at any point have claimed his role and derailed the lynch, resulting in the same kind of suspicion a successful one would have had with none of the gains. There's also the risk of a self-protect, but that's only something to consider if they had reason to believe Venture would expect to be attacked. Reason to suspect that would have been if Venture had gone fishing in PM's with claims, but if the elims feared that possibility, heavily pushing the lynch on him would also be a bad play for the same reasons.

All this is a long-winded way to say that I really don't think there's any reason to believe that all remaining elims where on the venture wagon, and the suggestion makes me suspect kynedath even more. I'm not saying we should ignore the people on that wagon, but I see no reason to limit discussion to only them.

Anyway, that's it from me for this cycle.

Edited January 30, 2020 by DeTess

[Kynedath]

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

I disagree with this, somewhat. Let me try to explain (I'm tired though, so this might not make a lot of sense).

First some assumptions: alle else being equal, the elims would prefer not to gang up on the same player in the lynch if its going to be a mislynch. Also, let's assume that there's 2 elims left.

Based on those two assumptions, there'd likely be about 1 elim in the group voting on Venture, and 1 elim among the other votes. In other words, all Else being equal, focusing one one group over the other doesn't achieve anything for the village.

Now, let's look at the two scenarios that might cause the elims to gang up. First among these is if an elim is at risk of being lynched. If that was the case here, one of Elkanah or Kynedath would have to be an elim. However, neither of them voted on Venture, so this scenario clearly doesn't work.

The other scenario is that the elims knew about venture's role. This brings with it two problems though. The first is about how they knew. If we assume that kidpen submitted the kill, and that both other elims had ways to determine someone's role, there's a 25% they'd pick venture in their first round of scans. These assumptions are pretty generous though, and I think it's far more likely that only one of them had a way to determine roles.

The other way they could have known is if Venture had claimed to them in a PM. Cadcom mentioned that they knew, and I can see why Venture might confide in them. I don't really see why he'd confide in anyone else though (except maybe Elkanah, but as mentioned, he didn't vote on Venture). The elims could have read the PM using the translator's lenses, but that'd only work if Venture named himself in the PM in which he claimed ( @CadCom, did he?).

Then there's the second problem with assuming that the elims knew, and that is 'why didn't they just kill him?' It's less risky than a lynch, as Venture could at any point have claimed his role and derailed the lynch, resulting in the same kind of suspicion a successful one would have had with none of the gains. There's also the risk of a self-protect, but that's only something to consider if they had reason to believe Venture would expect to be attacked. Reason to suspect that would have been if Venture had gone fishing in PM's with claims, but if the elims feared that possibility, heavily pushing the lynch on him would also be a bad play for the same reasons.

All this is a long-winded way to say that I really don't think there's any reason to believe that all remaining elims where on the venture wagon, and the suggestion makes me suspect kynedath even more. I'm not saying we should ignore the people on that wagon, but I see no reason to limit discussion to only them.

Anyway, that's it from me for this cycle.

. . . I've read this like four times and I have no effective argument against it. You're right, we shouldn't just be looking at those five. Rathmaskal I'll need to look at this closer later on.

[Elkanah]

Sorry, I've had less time today. I'll do what I can to catch up.

3 hours ago, The_God_King said:

Offense time

none taken

3 hours ago, The_God_King said:

Elkanah you’ve been switching votes faster than a caffeinated squirrel, you’re definitely pulling a bunch of strings in the PMs

Yes. 

3 hours ago, The_God_King said:

your vote last round was suspect.

Which one? The one I retracted on Kynedath or the one I voted on Striker? Also why? did I vote on anyone else? probably 

4 hours ago, The_God_King said:

the reason I’m so defensive is that I’m getting a second to breath. I feel that everyone’s, “Oh TGK said this first round with 5 minutes left. He gets violently turned down but holds his ground on his stance. He must be evil!” The quote is definitely not real but describes my situation a bit and should explain my frustration 

Ah. so you're posts sound defensive because you're defensive? That makes sense!

3 hours ago, Feruchemical Skybreaker said:

If I may point out that more people than me voted for Venture. And it is definitely not enough evidence to claim that I am an elim.

You may and you're right.... so why did you vote for venture?

4 hours ago, Feruchemical Skybreaker said:

Now, as for Elkanah. He told both The_God_King and I what roll he was. When The_ God_King and I were in a PM we figured out that he lied to one of us or both of us.

Yes. I can confirm I lied to one or both of you.

3 hours ago, Kynedath said:

Now this is fascinating! @Elkanah would you like to comment on this?

3 hours ago, CadCom said:

I'm fairly certain Elkanah is not an eliminator, and the elims are just laughing at us targeting so viciously two fellow villagers

Thank you, and I agree.

With that all done, I will see what I can deduce on my own from what has been said. My eyes are blue and green

[The_God_King]

3 hours ago, CadCom said:

I'm fairly certain Elkanah is not an eliminator, and the elims are just laughing at us targeting so viciously two fellow villagers. 

After Elkanahs last post I’m starting to agree this is some plot by the elims to spin us in circles. They’re probably biding their time waiting for us to pick each other off
 

 

[The_God_King]

36 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Which one? The one I retracted on Kynedath or the one I voted on Striker? Also why? d

I was wondering what your evidence was for both of those votes. It just seems a bit random

[Elkanah]

13 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

I was wondering what your evidence was for both of those votes. It just seems a bit random

That's fair. Kynedath's was pretty random. I wanted to generate discussion and it worked. I didn't think Kynedath would come so close to being lynched. Striker has felt pretty detached. I know he missed most of the first cycle, but I think he got caught up on the second and his posts have been noncommittal, a little sheepy, and if any eliminator was sitting back watching us take each other out I'd guess it was him. 

You know what, Feruchemical Skybreaker. Striker what suspicions do you have? What do you think of the Monty Hall Problem? @StrikerEZ

Edited January 31, 2020 by Elkanah
added tag

[CadCom]

So as many people know elkanah has claimed to be multiple roles to various people, running into a few hiccups. It's entirely possible that elkanah is an elim, but that seems dumb for an elim to do knowing that would probably be caught from people sharing in PMs. This, coupled with the unnecessary vote against kidpen D1 makes me still think they're village. 

So I've entirely thrown PM safety our the window, which is different than what I've done before, and I understand that you may be practicing PM safety, but if whoever Grandpa is feels comfortable, could you just send me a simple message "I am grandpa." If I remember right, anyone who uses that one lense will only know that the message was sent and not who sent it, so you shouldn't be risking too much, and it could significantly help me determine a few people's alignments. 

[StrikerEZ]

27 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

You know what, Feruchemical Skybreaker. Striker what suspicions do you have? What do you think of the Monty Hall Problem? @StrikerEZ

I’ve been caught up reading the posts, but a lot of it still hasn’t completely settled in my brain yet. There was a lot to read from D1 once I realized the game had started, and I’ve just been trying to recover from that ever since.

I will say that I think I’m most suspicious of Tess at this point. 

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

Based on those two assumptions, there'd likely be about 1 elim in the group voting on Venture, and 1 elim among the other votes. In other words, all Else being equal, focusing one one group over the other doesn't achieve anything for the village.

Now, let's look at the two scenarios that might cause the elims to gang up. First among these is if an elim is at risk of being lynched. If that was the case here, one of Elkanah or Kynedath would have to be an elim. However, neither of them voted on Venture, so this scenario clearly doesn't work.

This part of the post especially sets off alarm bells in my head. Tess voted for Venture too, right? There are more possibilities for who the elims could be if we assume that one of the other people up for the lynch was an elim. The last two elims could very well be Tess/Elkanah or (less likely in my opinion) Tess/Kynedath. There are, of course, more possibilities than that (like one of me, Rath, or FeruSky being the other elim attempting to save either elim!Elkanah or elim!Kynedath), but I’m focusing on Tess for now. Mostly because they seem to be 1) trying to make us look less at those who voted for Venture and 2) focusing on a narrow range of possibilities for why an elim would’ve voted for Venture.

Of course, this all assumes one of Elkanah or Kynedath is an elim, which I am much less certain of compared to my gut read of Tess. I’d rather lynch Tess than anyone else though. 

EDIT: Just realized I didn’t address Elkanah’s question about the Monty Hall problem. I’m just gonna say I don’t understand the original problem itself to understand how it relates to this game.

EDIT2:Just remembered I moved my vote off of Venture to Kynedath..........

Edited January 31, 2020 by StrikerEZ
BBcode is hard sometimes. :P

[Rathmaskal]

I was actually going to thank DeTess for articulating my issue with Kynedath's logic better than I did.  In my case, and I'm assuming in DeTess's as well, it's not trying to take eyes off the players who voted on Venture...it's trying to make sure we don't ignore the other 5 players in the game, which is what it seemed Kynedath was advocating for.

[Feruchemical Skybreaker]

To answer everyone asking about why I placed my vote on venture. Honestly, i'm not sure entirely why. I guess I saw that he had a lot of votes and since i'm new to this game I thought that that would be a decent move.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Kynedath(1): DeTess
Elkanah(1): FeruSky
Striker(1): Elkanah
DeTess(1): Striker

Venture being a villager makes Elkanah less likely to be evil. Chances are reasonable that if Venture claimed Bastille to anyone, he would have let someone(probably CadCom) know that he had done so. Shaper and perhaps tracker could have found out the role, but the odds of targeting Venture C1 aren't terribly high. Striker was a possible Elkanah teammate, but even though one vote is hardly fatal, it happening twice makes that seem seem less likely. Striker could be evil independent of Elkanah. Wanting to remove votes from Venture was not a plan to save a teammate, but I'm not sure a 4-way tied lynch would have actually been helpful as making and breaking ties is not alignment indicative. Kynedath is more of a possibility than last cycle with Venture dead and Elkanah more likely village; a lot of the markings being not indications of evil. I haven't taken the time to look though DeTess's posts pretty much at all, but will hopefully do so before rollover.

[Kynedath]

I cant dedicate too much time right now, maybe a bit later, but for now can people explain why they think I'm suspicious? I'm a bit lost.

[Elandera]

Three hours left! Again, work may get in the way of me closing the cycle. It will end at 11 p.m. PST, any votes or actions sent after will not be counted. Rollover may also last much longer than usual.

[Rathmaskal]

OK, so last cycle, everyone voted...right now we have 4/10 votes... (I'm included in the lack of voting...so don't worry, I'm not judging anyone for not voting yet.)  Definitely a testament to how well the elims are doing at confusing everyone I'd think.

Of the four players with votes, I'm kind of inclined to vote on Striker right now.  The interpretation of DeTess's criticism of Kynedath's post is really reading wrong to me.  This may be because I agree with DeTess's analysis, but the assertion that DeTess is trying to draw attention away from people rather than make sure that everyone is being analyzed seems like a rather gross misinterpretation.

Current votes (based on Devotary's votecount...so hopefully that's correct)

• Kynedath (1) - DeTess
• Elkanah (1) - Feru Sky
• Striker (2) - Elkanah, Rath
• DeTess (1) - Striker

[Zillah]

3 hours ago, CadCom said:

So as many people know elkanah has claimed to be multiple roles to various people, running into a few hiccups. It's entirely possible that elkanah is an elim, but that seems dumb for an elim to do knowing that would probably be caught from people sharing in PMs. This, coupled with the unnecessary vote against kidpen D1 makes me still think they're village.  

I would agree with this, however I would like to add that I find it unlikely that they are a special role of the village as well. Again, claiming as two special roles knowing that it was likely they’d be found out for that is risky. It makes the possibility of being killed by an Elim as well as lynched by the village very likely. Neither of which would be good since the special roles are fairly useful to have. I’m still not set on trusting them, just less suspicious for now. 

I’m going to go a bit outside the box and talk about DeTess for the moment. Majority of their posts seem to be centred a lot more around picking apart what others say and asking players questions rather than bringing to light new things. They have nearly rock solid arguments that are difficult to challenge, which makes them much more trusted it seems. It feels like people are hesitant to go against them because their post could get turned around and made into ample Lynch material. This is nothing against DeTess, just an observation on their postings style. Naturally though, noticing this does make me suspicious of them.

It seems like a smart way for an elim to play. Being active, but focusing on others and their posts rather than bringing their own information which could get turned around on them. 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Zillah
Fixing a few spelling errors from typing

[CadCom]

Gah. I hate that these cycles are so short. This game would suit me better if it were an MR or LG. As it is, I dont have time to do as much analysis as I would like. Or hardly any really. 

I dont really want my vote to go to waste by voting on someone else not currently up for the lynch, so I'll vote for De Tess I know I haven't said much about them, but I think they're one of the people that once gone, may help me clear my head. 

Them along with Rath and devotary, then Striker are all hiding too much in the shadows to me. This'll at least hopefully help me focus on ths others next cycle 

 

*cough* if I live