Imminent exodus of the Iriali to Scadrial

[Isilel]

We know after OB that Iri decided to side with Odium despite the fact that it used to be one of the Silver Kingdoms and a staunch part of the anti-Odium alliance in the past. However, in Odium's negotiations with Taravangian it became obvious that he is very reluctant to promise safety to human countries in return for their cooperation. My guess is that this is because of the pre-existing deal between Odium and the Fused, which promised them Roshar (but not specified the condition it is going to be in). So, what could he have promised to the Iriali leaders? IMHO,  help with moving to their next "Land" and escaping the Final Desolation. After all, that's what we learned about the Iriali from Ym's Interlude back in WoR:

 

Quote

We are Iriali, and part of the Long Trail, of which this is the Fourth Land.”
“You sound like a priest.”
“Accept no priests either,” Ym said. “Those are from other lands, come to preach to us. Iriali need no preaching, only experience. As each experience is different, it brings completeness. Eventually, all will be gathered back in—when the Seventh Land is attained—and we will once again become One.”

 

The Iriali have been stuck on Roshar for thousands of years and it would make sense that they made the same calculation as Taravangian - that this latest conflict with Odium couldn't be won, and decided that it was finally time for their people to head for the Fifth Land.

Why Scadrial? Scadrial is convenient because it has a perpendicularity, yet is mostly empty just 3 or so centuries after the Catacendre - and even before that, most of it was uninhibitable. Now it is largely suited to human habitation, but it would take the Scadrians a long time to build up numbers and spred to fill it. It is also clearly to Odium's advantage to help the Iriali move there. This gambit already worked for him on Roshar, after all. What is more and what makes Scadrians such a threat to whoever is behind the red-eyed "faceless immortals" and to Odium, unless they are one and the same, is that the planet and the people are special because they were created by only the 2 Shards now being combined in  Harmony. Other Shards have no purchase there, no beachhead, and Scadrians are extensions of Harmony to the degree not shared by the people and planets created by Adonalsium and later taken over by the Shards, which still have the investiture of all of the 16 in them. By introducing  Iriali people to Scadrial, Odium would disrupt this situation and get a foot in the door, so to speak.  

This snippet from the State of Sanderson may or may not be connected:

"I consider Wax and Wayne’s final book to be imperative to finish before I start Stormlight Five."

given that it would make sense for the Iriali to leave during a Willshaper book and for W&W folks to possibly run into them either a few years after or in the process of their arrival on-world (in case of time dilation during interstellar travel through the Cognitive), in "The Last Metal".

 

[continuumg]

Remember Miles’ proclamation at the end of AoL? “One day, the men of gold and red, bearers of the final metal, will come to you. And you will be ruled by them.”

Iriali are gold.

hmmmmmmmm

Edited December 21, 2019 by continuumg

[Halyo_Alex]

51 minutes ago, continuumg said:

Remember Miles’ proclamation at the end of AoL? “One day, the men of gold and red, bearers of the final metal, will come to you. And you will be ruled by them.”

Iriali are gold.

hmmmmmmmm

Also, if Vyre's knife is made of Rayesium, then Odium's god metal is a "whitish-gold" metal... And Odium's forms that he appears as do have both of those colors featured in their designs.

Another thing to note about that quote is that bit about red, too. Red is the color of co-opted investiture, much like we see with Trellium, which has red spots as if the metal is rusted in patches. We also have a WoB stating that Trellium is at least in part, a God Metal.

Maybe it's an Alloy of Rayesium? Now I'm starting to have doubts about "Trell" being an avatar of Autonomy. Hm.

[Honorless]

6 hours ago, Halyo_Alex said:

Now I'm starting to have doubts about "Trell" being an avatar of Autonomy. Hm.

Why not both?

Remember that clipping, "vote for passion, vote for freedom" in Elendel Daily. As for Trell, that's too Autonomy, we've seen this name appear on Taldain

[Aon Tia]

I like your theory @Isilel it makes a lot of sense! It even explains for the first time in a satisfactory manner that why would iriali’s side with odium! They have probably worked out a deal with odium, they will help him win this war and he will let them free from Roshar and they will go to Scadrial. 
And I think Harmony might be next on the list for odium! 

[Halyo_Alex]

1 hour ago, Honorless said:

Why not both?

Remember that clipping, "vote for passion, vote for freedom" in Elendel Daily. As for Trell, that's too Autonomy, we've seen this name appear on Taldain

Good point, I remember seeing a theory earlier on that Ba-Ado-Mishram became an Avatar of Autonomy and that was how she was suddenly able to Connect to the Parshendi and provide Voidlight. So she'd be in the same boat as Scadrial's Trell then, if this is the case. Which would be interesting, because then it's a bit of a Shardic 2v2 in a sense. It sounds nice, but I have no idea how plausible it actually is.

[Bigmikey357]

As to Roshar,  Brandon has stated previously that we're not getting more than 3 Shards involved in the main storyline.  As for the Irali and their move to Scadrial,  I suppose it's plausible that they made a deal with Odium.  The question for me though is, do they really need Odium to immigrate?  I mean they moved before,  and probably without Shardic intervention.  If they want to leave so bad then why would they accept aid from an entity that at least on the surface seems untrustworthy. It could be that they have no choice,  that all previous moves were by will of a Shard, or that in the centuries they lost the knowledge. However,  if I were Irali I'd have tried to leave Roshar ages ago what with Desolations, the Recreance, the rise and fall of the Heirocracy and those pesky world conquering Alethi. 

[Karger]

On 12/21/2019 at 0:04 PM, Isilel said:

. My guess is that this is because of the pre-existing deal between Odium and the Fused

Either that or he is just wary of limitations.  He is immortal and you never know when one of those promises is going to come back and bite you. 

On 12/21/2019 at 0:04 PM, Isilel said:

So, what could he have promised to the Iriali leaders? IMHO

An interesting possibility another is that Odium himself made no specific promise he just let a fused do it for him.  In fact we have no evidence that the Iriali even know that Odium exists.

[+ILuvHats]

1 hour ago, Bigmikey357 said:

As to Roshar,  Brandon has stated previously that we're not getting more than 3 Shards involved in the main storyline.  As for the Irali and their move to Scadrial,  I suppose it's plausible that they made a deal with Odium.  The question for me though is, do they really need Odium to immigrate?  I mean they moved before,  and probably without Shardic intervention.  If they want to leave so bad then why would they accept aid from an entity that at least on the surface seems untrustworthy. It could be that they have no choice,  that all previous moves were by will of a Shard, or that in the centuries they lost the knowledge. However,  if I were Irali I'd have tried to leave Roshar ages ago what with Desolations, the Recreance, the rise and fall of the Heirocracy and those pesky world conquering Alethi. 

What could Odium promise them? Safe passage for one. The Fused control Cultivation’s perpendicularity, the only stable way to enter Shadesmar apart from the Oathgates, which the Iriali surely didn’t know of at the time. Even if they do now, they don’t know how to operate them. As for why the Iriali didn’t leave earlier, who knows, but it’s not particularly relevant to their deal with Odium. The past is the past as they say.

[Ripheus23]

Theory of the year. imo...