Anniversary Game 6/Anonymous Game 7: We Shall All Be Changed

[Saffron Iguana]

33 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

With the large player base and likely large elim team, I don't think a bus of a teammate who hadn't shown up yet is impossible. It would mean a ruthless team, or a team who didn't see many options yet. It's possible Toucan is also elim (the other main lynch on D1), and Zebra was bussed to save the active one. Iguana's actions at the end would make some sense in that case.

Albatross later said bussing a worldhopper wouldn't be a smart move, but if everyone is a worldhopper, no one is a worldhopper then it doesn't matter if they lose one. 

Iguana

 

Can you explain why you think I'm an elim, because I'm not making it out from your post. I think I could understand it if you where assuming that Toucan was an elim (in which case I'd like to know why you're so certain about that assumption), but that doesn't seem to be an assumption you consider necessary to consider me to be an elim. So can you explain why I'd have done what I did if I was an elim, assuming Toucan wasn't?

[Amber Vulture]

All the new recruits are worldhoppers then, or at least are familiar with the concept. Excellent. I'll finally be able to drop my illusory visage and conserve my stormlight for more important tasks. Torl still appears as interweaving concentric rings even though the need for that deception has passed. We'll see if that's simply a favored form or if that pattern is the only possible physical manifestation.

Bussing teammates early on for trust makes a lot less sense when alignment can be confirmed relatively easily by the ~2 Skybreaker scans floating around every night. Without dedicated Lightweavers, it would be extremely difficult to protect someone from scans long term. If Toucan was also evil, it would make more sense for Iguana to choose(incorrectly) Toucan over Zebra, but again Toucan's alignment can be checked. 

[Opal Lion]

Wow.  I see what you mean when you say that AG role distributions are... different.

I certainly agree, Iguana looks a whole lot more suspicious now. Changing their vote at pretty much literally the last moment without stating a reason... and the person they voted for happens to be an elim? There would be no way of telling C1, so either they're an elim bussing their teammate, or they just got lucky.

3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

All the new recruits are worldhoppers then, or at least are familiar with the concept. Excellent. I'll finally be able to drop my illusory visage and conserve my stormlight for more important tasks. Torl still appears as interweaving concentric rings even though the need for that deception has passed. We'll see if that's simply a favored form or if that pattern is the only possible physical manifestation.

Bussing teammates early on for trust makes a lot less sense when alignment can be confirmed relatively easily by the ~2 Skybreaker scans floating around every night. Without dedicated Lightweavers, it would be extremely difficult to protect someone from scans long term. If Toucan was also evil, it would make more sense for Iguana to choose(incorrectly) Toucan over Zebra, but again Toucan's alignment can be checked. 

It's always a possibility that the elims thought that they were the only ones who were worldhoppers. There was no evidence to make the assumption that all the villagers were worldhoppers as well, really- not until now. 

And, of course, if Scorpion's theory is true, then it's a risk that they have to take.

1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

With the large player base and likely large elim team, I don't think a bus of a teammate who hadn't shown up yet is impossible. It would mean a ruthless team, or a team who didn't see many options yet. It's possible Toucan is also elim (the other main lynch on D1), and Zebra was bussed to save the active one. Iguana's actions at the end would make some sense in that case.

Albatross later said bussing a worldhopper wouldn't be a smart move, but if everyone is a worldhopper, no one is a worldhopper then it doesn't matter if they lose one. 

1 hour ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Can you explain why you think I'm an elim, because I'm not making it out from your post. I think I could understand it if you where assuming that Toucan was an elim (in which case I'd like to know why you're so certain about that assumption), but that doesn't seem to be an assumption you consider necessary to consider me to be an elim. So can you explain why I'd have done what I did if I was an elim, assuming Toucan wasn't?

Having both you and Toucan be elims gives us a picture of what happened last cycle that makes some sort of sense. If Toucan is not an elim, it becomes less likely that you are one as well, but it still doesn't explain your behavior.

I won't vote on you, for now- I'm interested in what you have to say in your defense. But I am most certainly suspicious.

 

[Saffron Iguana]

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

Having both you and Toucan be elims gives us a picture of what happened last cycle that makes some sort of sense. If Toucan is not an elim, it becomes less likely that you are one as well, but it still doesn't explain your behavior.

I won't vote on you, for now- I'm interested in what you have to say in your defense. But I am most certainly suspicious.

I'd love to say something in my defense (once I've had some sleep at any rate), but I've yet to hear an actual accusation rather than a summary of my actions and speculation based on Toucan's alignment. Both you and scorpion apparently consider my behavior last cycle something that needs explaining, but you've yet to state what I did exactly that needs explaining? 

Edit: apologies, my reading comprehension goes down as I get tired.

@Opal Lion, I did state a reason for my vote, several posts before I made it:

Quote

Anyway, if the magenta train doesn't take off, I might just tie-break against Zebra. Between toucan and Zebra, toucan is at least active, and I think Zebras death write-up might be funnier because of the whole 'adolin's ex' thing. These are pretty bad reasons for a pretty bad lynch though, so I hope there si some interest for the magenta lynch.

Those aren't particularly good reasons, but both lynches where pretty bad (consisting of RP votes and poke votes) and despite the thread getting a reasonable amount of traffic, no one seemed interested in a lynch based on reasoning (or even in suggesting another alternative), rather than a random tie between two people that might as well have been picked randomly given the nature of the votes on them.

Edited December 29, 2019 by Saffron Iguana

[Amethyst Scorpion]

1 hour ago, Saffron Iguana said:

I'd love to say something in my defense (once I've had some sleep at any rate), but I've yet to hear an actual accusation rather than a summary of my actions and speculation based on Toucan's alignment. Both you and scorpion apparently consider my behavior last cycle something that needs explaining, but you've yet to state what I did exactly that needs explaining? 

Edit: apologies, my reading comprehension goes down as I get tired.

@Opal Lion, I did state a reason for my vote, several posts before I made it:

Those aren't particularly good reasons, but both lynches where pretty bad (consisting of RP votes and poke votes) and despite the thread getting a reasonable amount of traffic, no one seemed interested in a lynch based on reasoning (or even in suggesting another alternative), rather than a random tie between two people that might as well have been picked randomly given the nature of the votes on them.

My thoughts weren't stated well. Basically, regardless of Toucan's alignment, your vote seems vaguely like a bus to me. It would be more so in the case that Toucan is elim, but that doesn't have to be true for the vote to still be a bus.

2 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

Bussing teammates early on for trust makes a lot less sense when alignment can be confirmed relatively easily by the ~2 Skybreaker scans floating around every night. Without dedicated Lightweavers, it would be extremely difficult to protect someone from scans long term. If Toucan was also evil, it would make more sense for Iguana to choose(incorrectly) Toucan over Zebra, but again Toucan's alignment can be checked. 

Why scan someone when they appear to be cleared by helping lynch an elim? Yes, there are potentially scans out there, which might make the elims more likely to do extreme things to avoid suspicion entirely.

I'm not sure what you mean by your last statement, that it would have made more sense for Iguana to choose elim!Toucan over Zebra. Can you clarify?

[Emerald Falcon]

4 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

@Salmon Meerkats

Jonan's heart stopped for a moment. This kid’s also missing his axehound? Did someone take both of our axehounds?

He noticed the floating spren again, watching as it shone a strange blue light over some spheres. “Yes, I can see it too.” he said. “Any idea what it is?”

@Amethyst Scorpion @Emerald Falcon

"It," Sein said huffily, "can hear you. And has a name and gender."

He rose to meet the man at eye level, eye narrowing in annoyance.

Sein spoke as haughily as possible. "I am Sein, a Ghost. Preferred pronouns are he/him and most certainly not it. Currently, I have decided to accompany Mr. Jesh here as he searches for his lost dog, but if he believes me to be a mere figment of his imagination I will gladly leave so as not to trouble him any further."

He sniffed, but without a nose, the expression was probably lost on these humans.

@Amethyst Scorpion @Magenta Albatross

---

I'm honestly confused by the suspicion on Iguana. I do not believe it is a smart move for the elims to bus one of their own on D1 when they weren't under any suspicion, regardless of role, or even if Zebra seemed inactive. Why? 1. The GMs have already stated that there is a pinchhitter available, and this is the type of thing that most elim teams will ask before offing their own D1. 2. Because games are unpredictable, and it opens themselves up to the exact type of situation we have now, where two of them are down in the first two cycles. I believe that after lynching a Sympathizer, Iguana should be low priority on the list of players to investigate.

Now, if you believe that Iguana might have been a Sympathizer trying to swing the vote off of their teammate Toucan, then the better lynch to figure that out would be Toucan. Toucan has said less, already been under some suspicion, and if village would be less of a loss than Iguana, who is active and provides analysis.

 

Edited December 30, 2019 by Emerald Falcon
Formatting

[Turquoise Gorilla]

13 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

“GREETINGS CITIZENS

I AM THE STORMFATHER AND I HAVE AN IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR YOU

%96C6 2C6 D64C6ED :? E9:D 82>6] z:== E96 v|D]”

 

4 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

The second message has some sort of cipher. I don't have the time to solve it rn. Can anyone else crack it?

"On it!"

[Opal Lion]

2 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:

I'd love to say something in my defense (once I've had some sleep at any rate), but I've yet to hear an actual accusation rather than a summary of my actions and speculation based on Toucan's alignment. Both you and scorpion apparently consider my behavior last cycle something that needs explaining, but you've yet to state what I did exactly that needs explaining? 

Edit: apologies, my reading comprehension goes down as I get tired.

@Opal Lion, I did state a reason for my vote, several posts before I made it:

Those aren't particularly good reasons, but both lynches where pretty bad (consisting of RP votes and poke votes) and despite the thread getting a reasonable amount of traffic, no one seemed interested in a lynch based on reasoning (or even in suggesting another alternative), rather than a random tie between two people that might as well have been picked randomly given the nature of the votes on them.

Ah, I see. I missed that.

52 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

"It," Sein said huffily, "can hear you. And has a name and gender."

He rose to meet the man at eye level, eye narrowing in annoyance.

Sein spoke as haughily as possible. "I am Sein, a Ghost. Preferred pronouns are he/him and most certainly not it. Currently, I have decided to accompany Mr. Jesh here as he searches for his lost dog, but if he believes me to be a mere figment of his imagination I will gladly leave so as not to trouble him any further."

He sniffed, but without a nose, the expression was probably lost on these humans.

@Amethyst Scorpion @Magenta Albatross

---

I'm honestly confused by the suspicion on Iguana. I do not believe it is a smart move for the elims to bus one of their own on D1 when they weren't under any suspicion, regardless of role, or even if Zebra seemed inactive. Why? 1. The GMs have already stated that there is a pinchhitter available, and this is the type of thing that most elim teams will ask before offing their own D1. 2. Because games are unpredictable, and it opens themselves up to the exact type of situation we have now, where two of them are down in the first two cycles. I believe that after lynching a Sympathizer, Iguana should be low priority on the list of players to investigate.

Now, if you believe that Iguana might have been a Sympathizer trying to swing the vote off of their teammate Toucan, then the better lynch to figure that out would be Toucan. Toucan has said less, already been under some suspicion, and if village would be less of a loss than Iguana, who is active and provides analysis.

 

Ehh... true enough, I suppose. Again, I'll hold off on voting until I hear what @Sunburst Toucan has to say- they haven't been on since their post last cycle.

[Amber Vulture]

1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Why scan someone when they appear to be cleared by helping lynch an elim? Yes, there are potentially scans out there, which might make the elims more likely to do extreme things to avoid suspicion entirely.

I'm not sure what you mean by your last statement, that it would have made more sense for Iguana to choose elim!Toucan over Zebra. Can you clarify?

Successfully lynching an elim draws immediate attention that wouldn't have been generated otherwise. I can't say for sure what the odds of being scanned are between nondescript and sensational, and although we had a releaser target the former losing a teammate is a pretty steep cost.

Thinking the votes were 2-2, it's reasonable to guarantee the lynch of one elim. Since votes were moved off of Toucan, they wouldn't have died even if Iguana voted for Toucan. It's entirely possible that Zebra would have survived had Iguana cast any other vote or kept the vote on Albatross. 50% odds aren't the greatest either, but it's a lot better than the guaranteeing an elim death.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

28 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Successfully lynching an elim draws immediate attention that wouldn't have been generated otherwise. I can't say for sure what the odds of being scanned are between nondescript and sensational, and although we had a releaser target the former losing a teammate is a pretty steep cost.

Thinking the votes were 2-2, it's reasonable to guarantee the lynch of one elim. Since votes were moved off of Toucan, they wouldn't have died even if Iguana voted for Toucan. It's entirely possible that Zebra would have survived had Iguana cast any other vote or kept the vote on Albatross. 50% odds aren't the greatest either, but it's a lot better than the guaranteeing an elim death.

I'm still not sure I'm following here. You're saying elim!Iguana (knowing about vote manipulation) would have either voted elim!Toucan or left it on Albatross/random villager, rather than bus elim!Zebra because lynching an elim D1 draws attention?

I guess that makes sense. At the same time, though, how many people immediately cleared Iguana N1 because of the vote? That kind of decision can generate trust rather than suspicion. It's a gamble, as are a lot of elim plays. But if they're successful, they're worth it. 

[Magenta Albatross]

Jonan could barely believe what he was hearing and seeing. The weird spren, Sein, could talk. He tapped it, just to see if it was real, and to his surprise his hand actually touched it. 

”Well...Sein,” he said, getting ready to summon his shardblade again in case he needed to protect Jesh, “where are you from? How did you get here?”

@Emerald Falcon @Amethyst Scorpion

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Jesh stared at the shardblade in wonder. He may have been a lighteyes, but he was of low dahn. He didn't see a shardblade often, and especially not this close.

"Wait!" He put his hands up, stepping between his spren and the newcomer. Both towered above him. "I think he's my spren. He's been talking about giving people power. His words are weird, but it sounds kinda like the Radiants everyone is talking about."

@Emerald Falcon @Magenta Albatross

[Mauve Crocodile]

Wow, the AG curse might finally be broken this game! Hopefully I can contribute something along the way. My read on Iguana during D1 is pretty solid village. He didn't just pop on at the end of the cycle to break the tie, but was engaged in lynch discussion for several posts all in a short time frame. That seems more like village behavior to me.

On the topic of everyone being a worldhopper, I'm hesitant to think that would be the case, due to balance issues. I guess the number of elims kills should be a tell for this, at least for them; if they get a second kill in every second or third night (for 4 or 3 remaining players, respectively), then they probably are all worldhoppers.

I'd guess that Toucan is also village. I don't see why the elims would bother using vote manipulation in a E/E vote. But I'm less certain of this than of Iguana.

@Magenta Albatross Is there a reason you chose to move Tuatara's vote? You caused a significant vote swing, which you could have lessened by moving some other vote. This actually seems to be the most suspicious thing during D1 to me, so I'll vote on Albatross for now.

I'll try to work on some RP to post tomorrow. I've got an idea for my character and his probably death (or unlikely victory).

[Scarlet Octopus]

This post is going to have a lot of information, so I apologize in advance for not being in character, but I've spent the last 3 hours reading the thread. Note that this post is going to ignore any posts ninja'ing me. The last post made at the time of writing this was:

2 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Jesh stared at the shardblade in wonder. He may have been a lighteyes, but he was of low dahn. He didn't see a shardblade often, and especially not this close.

"Wait!" He put his hands up, stepping between his spren and the newcomer. Both towered above him. "I think he's my spren. He's been talking about giving people power. His words are weird, but it sounds kinda like the Radiants everyone is talking about."

@Emerald Falcon @Magenta Albatross

Post counts vs. mentioned in other posts:

 

Player	Character	Cosmetic Role	Post Count	Post Count without pure RP	Mentions by others
1. Amber Vulture	Jashi	Stormwarden	4	3	3
2. Amethyst Scorpion	Jesh	Lost Axehound	9	5	11
3. Chartreuse Penguin	Taladir	Gambler	5	3	8
4. Coral Swan	Germaine	Scholar	2	1	2
5. Cream Tuatara	Dfyan	Scholar	3	3	10
6. Emerald Falcon	Sein	Inquisitive	8	5	15
7. Indigo Weasel	Adhom Inem	Ardent	5	4	6
8. Ivory Dragonfly	Krask	Conspiracy Theorist	3	2	1
9. Magenta Albatross	Jonan Wikim	Lost Axehound (Gren)	10	9	13
10. Mauve Crocodile	Sernes	Paranoid Scout	2	2	0
11. Mint Heron	Sam	Once a Darkeyes	1	0	3
12. Onyx Flamingo	Kir	Kleptomaniac Scout	2	1	5
13. Opal Lion	Tnaidar	Scout	6	4	3
14. Pearl Chameleon	Purrl	Adolin’s Former Girlfriend	2	0	7
15. Plum Rhinoceros	Logalog	Scholar	4	3	0
16. Quartz Zebra	Arauna Khadal	Adolin’s Former Girlfriend	0	0	9
17. Saffron Iguana	Merinira	Scout	14	13	23
18. Sage Kangaroo	Gilglin	Ardent (Devotary of the Mind)	2	0	2
19. Salmon Meerkat	Cadamum	Ghostblood Recruit	4	4	5
20. Scarlet Octopus	Max Mercury	Past Lives	2	1	1
21. Sunburst Toucan	Tafud	Slightly Crazy	2	1	22
22. Taupe Gecko	Brana	Scholar	2	1	0
23. Turqoise Gorilla	Bomer	Gambler	4	4	6
24. Violet Axolotl	Adi	Anxious	2	1	2

 

Things of Note: Saffron Iguana has the most posts, and has the most mentions by other people. We'll probably get a lot of information from lynching them just from that alone. After that, Sunburst Toucan has been mentioned a lot. I would advocate lynching either of them for information, as we cannot guarantee that a Skybreaker will be effective or trustworthy. 

@Mint Heron, @Pearl Chameleon and @Sage Kangaroo have not made any posts other than Pure RP. I would love it if you three would say something more.

Scorpion, Falcon, Albatross and Iguana are the most active players. Part of that is from Scorpion, Falcon, and Albatross RP'ing with eachother, and part of it is from Albatross and Iguana going back and forth for 8 posts at the end of Day 1.

 

Before their Death, Zebra was only mentioned by Iguana, Dragonfly, Chameleon, Penguin, Falcon, and Rhino. Iguana mentioned them more than the others. (Gorilla also mentioned them, but only to invite them to RP with them. Zebra never spoke or interacted with anyone. Falcon is the only one to say they don't like the lynch on Toucan or Zebra. 

Dragonfly interacted with Iguana and Zebra, and roleplayed with Penguin. Of these, Iguana is the only survivor.

Penguin has interacted with Gorilla, Toucan, Tuatara, Dragonfly, Meerkat, Zebra, and Albatross(Reportedly. Can't prove this one.). They were mentioned by Octopus, Defended by Falcon, Weasel and Gecko.

 

Nothing Iguana has done makes me think he is an elim, but he is tied statistically to both Elims already revealed. He would be a highly informational lynch regardless of alignment.

 

During my readthrough of the thread, I also came across enough things to be suspicious of Emerald Falcon. On day 1, in retrospect, it looks like Falcon is already aware that we're all Worldhoppers (Side note, if anyone isn't a Worldhopper, would they please speak up?) In their next post, they defend Zebra and Penguin in a NAI way. During Night 1, they state that they trust Penguin and Iguana. Penguin died that night, giving credence to Falcon in a round about way. Falcon then defends Albatross from Iguana, who I will discuss next. Today, they have continued to defend Iguana.

5 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I'm honestly confused by the suspicion on Iguana. I do not believe it is a smart move for the elims to bus one of their own on D1 when they weren't under any suspicion, regardless of role, or even if Zebra seemed inactive. Why? 1. The GMs have already stated that there is a pinchhitter available, and this is the type of thing that most elim teams will ask before offing their own D1. 2. Because games are unpredictable, and it opens themselves up to the exact type of situation we have now, where two of them are down in the first two cycles. I believe that after lynching a Sympathizer, Iguana should be low priority on the list of players to investigate.

Now, if you believe that Iguana might have been a Sympathizer trying to swing the vote off of their teammate Toucan, then the better lynch to figure that out would be Toucan. Toucan has said less, already been under some suspicion, and if village would be less of a loss than Iguana, who is active and provides analysis.

While I do agree that if Toucan is an Eliminator, than Iguana probably is too, and I also agree that of the two, I would rather lose Toucan than Iguana, I don't think Toucan is the right lynch here. They are not nearly as active as Iguana is, and generally are doing less damage.

Onto Albatross!

A lot of why I'm suspicious of Albatross has already been covered by Iguana Here: 

But TLDR; They were looking for any reason to lynch someone, and voted on Toucan for ignoring a meaningless question. They have not been putting forth effort to reread or analyse the thread, backpedaling on what they knew right before Day 1 ended. They read like someone who is not bothering to investigate, but just to appear active and helpful. They're either an Elim or a villager who doens't have the time to spend on doing analysis.

In Conclusion, I think that One of (Toucan/Iguana), (Iguana/Falcon), or (Falcon/Albatross) are Eliminator teammates. As Falcon is the most Suspicious of the lot, I'm voting for them. If they get lynched this turn, I would advocate Dustbringing/Lynching Iguana, then Albatross, than Toucan. (If Falcon is a Villager, remove Albatross from that order. I'd want to reread before killing them.) If Albatross is an Elim, Toucan and Iguana most certainly aren't and vice versa.

I apologize for how generally disorderly this post is. It's 3 hours past my bedtime.

Emerald Falcon

 

EDIT: Storming Spoiler tags suck

Vote Tally:

Saffron Iguana(1): Amethyst Scorpion

Sunburst Toucan(1): Emerald Falcon)

Magenta Albatross(1): Mauve Crocodile

Emerald Falcon(1): Scarlet Octopus

Edited December 30, 2019 by Scarlet Octopus
Fixing the Spoiler and adding a Vote tally

[Emerald Falcon]

Sein scooted away from the man's hand, but not before he felt his shell being tapped.

"Hey!" he said indignantly. "I'm not your spren, Jesh. I couldn't bond with you even if I wanted to, because you're not dead yet. Only dead people can become Guardians."

He looked at the two humans, and sighed. Their ignorance about Ghosts was astounding, but in a world where they hadn't even heard of the Traveler, maybe it wasn't so surprising.

Sein started a recording. He had a feeling that he'd have to repeat this information many, many more times.

He started. "Here's the short version. A long, long time ago there were these fundamental forces of the universe -- you'd call them gods. The Light and the Darkness. The Light likes cooperation and progress, the Darkness likes survival of the fittest and death. They used to live in harmony, but one day they got into a fight. Somehow -- I don't know the metaphysics very well, you'd have to ask a Warlock -- this created the universe as we know it. This includes paracausality, which basically means the ability to break reality in a way you want. Kinda. Anyways, since then the Light and the Dark have been at war for billions of years, and they've chosen several species to fight on their side."

Sein projected a photograph of awhite orb hovering above Mars, and three humans stepping out of their spaceship to greet it. 

"The Light started helping Humanity around 2014 CE. That's when we started calling it the Traveler. Then the Darkness attacked, destroying most of the progress the Traveler gave us and sending Humanity back into the Dark Age. The Traveler protected us, but was very badly hurt. It took little pieces of itself and made Ghosts to defend Humanity."

Now, Sein projected an image of a human dressed in bulky armor carrying a rifle. Their face was obscured by a mask that covered one eye, but they radiated strength and determination, even through a projection. Next to them floated a Ghost in a dark grey shell, who similarly radiated determination.

"I'm one of these Ghosts. We travel all around Sol, looking for our other half to raise back to life. It takes a dead person though. Not sure why. They get powers, like being able to fly and throw grenades made of energy. We help maintain their guns, too, so they pack a bigger punch than you expect. Most of these people become Guardians that defend Humanity from everything that wants to kill us." 

Sein stopped the recording.

"That's the history of where I'm from. If you want more details, you'll have to ask a Warlock. Any of it sound familiar to you?"

@Amethyst Scorpion @Magenta Albatross

---

A few things.

First, has there been a game recently where an elim bussed a teammate early on? I'm genuinely unsure where this suspicion of Iguana is from, if not from that. When I last played (which wasn't so long ago) lynching an elim D1 got you a village read.

Second, @Scarlet Octopus, I stand by my reads on Albatross and Iguana. Albatross's behavior D1 made sense from a villagery standpoint. It also made sense from an elim standpoint, but not overwhelmingly so. I'll admit that I went easy on them -- I keep a mental list of players who I can expect less rational behavior from and/or poorly worded statements from, who all usually end up getting lynched while village in the early part of the cycle. I thought that Albatross might be one of those players and the more they've talked, the stronger the feeling gets, that they're one of the lynch traps that the village always goes after. I might be wrong, but in the interest of promoting fun I thought I'd try not to let them get killed immediately.

I would actually compare Albatross's behavior to Toucan's. Albatross, whatever their faults, gives an appearance of trying, or at least appearing to try. To me, it's plausible that they're one of those players who haven't yet figured how to communicate things in a way that the rest of us get. By contrast, Toucan does not even pretend to try. They feel like they're stonewalling. I tried PMing them and got the same result, too. Maybe it's just their chosen cosmetic role that's rubbing me the wrong way, but I've seen some elims who post and say effectively nothing for the whole game, similar to what Toucan has done so far. At least Albatross says something.

I will do analysis on someone outside this Toucan - Iguana mess tomorrow.

[Magenta Albatross]

1 hour ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

@Magenta Albatross Is there a reason you chose to move Tuatara's vote? You caused a significant vote swing, which you could have lessened by moving some other vote. This actually seems to be the most suspicious thing during D1 to me, so I'll vote on Albatross for now.

Like I said, it was just a way to prove to Penguin that I was in fact a Willshaper. I just picked a random player’s vote to move. I put the order in about an hour and a half before rollover, and I didn’t think to change it after some of the votes moved around later in the cycle. 

1 hour ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

But TLDR; They were looking for any reason to lynch someone, and voted on Toucan for ignoring a meaningless question. They have not been putting forth effort to reread or analyse the thread, backpedaling on what they knew right before Day 1 ended. They read like someone who is not bothering to investigate, but just to appear active and helpful. They're either an Elim or a villager who doens't have the time to spend on doing analysis.

Yeah, you basically got it exactly right. I knew my vote wouldn’t matter since I was gonna be moving someone else’s vote anyway, so I just picked someone to vote for and came up with a half-decent reason  to vote for them. I will still stand by my statement that Tuatara’s reluctance to answer the question is weird considering how ultimately meaningless of a question it was. But I wouldn’t have voted on them if I hadn’t been a Willshaper trying to prove my role to Penguin.

~

Jonan stared at Sein for a moment after the images stopped. He dismissed his shardblade and began to rub his eyes. This has to be a dream, he thought to himself. I’ve been all over the Cosmere, and never heard of any of that before. 

”Sein, I’m gonna be completely honest with you...whatever you are,” he said. “I’ve never heard of any of that. And I’ve been to Nalthis, Scadrial, Threnody, and spent a few years studying in Silverlight. What kind of Investiture do you use?”

@Emerald Falcon @Amethyst Scorpion

[Saffron Iguana]

3 hours ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

Things of Note: Saffron Iguana has the most posts, and has the most mentions by other people. We'll probably get a lot of information from lynching them just from that alone. After that, Sunburst Toucan has been mentioned a lot. I would advocate lynching either of them for information, as we cannot guarantee that a Skybreaker will be effective or trustworthy. 

Could you provide some examples of the information you'd get from lynching me? I get what you meant by the statistics, but can you provide some concrete examples of what you'd learn if you lynched me and if flipped village? And what would you learn if I flipped elim?

3 hours ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

too, and I also agree that of the two, I would rather lose Toucan than Iguana, I don't think Toucan is the right lynch here. They are not nearly as active as Iguana is, and generally are doing less damage.

I'm doing damage now, am I ? In all seriousness though, what makes you say that? If anything, I'd argue that someone barely taking part is doing more damage than someone actively around, because they're making it impossible to form reads on them.

Anyway, lets finish that list of player-reads I'd started on.

Pearl chameleon

Pearl, like many others, has only two posts, and both of them where RP. One of them contained the RP motivated vote on Zebra, which could have been distancing, but I doubt it. There weren't any solid lynches yet at that time, so a vote like that would have been very risky, especially given anonymous games' tendency to lynch inactives early. I'm elaning village on Chameleon, and hope that they'll drop by to contribute more sooner rather than later.

Plum Rhinoceros

Four posts, one of which actually contained a decent amount of content. Someone providing their thoughts on the game is pretty nice and indicates that they're trying to solve the game, but I really didn't like the amount of hedging going on regarding his reads one me and Toucan. It could have been genuine uncertainty (Rhino definitely wasn't alone in that), but that kind of hedging, like with weasel, can also be a smokescreen for an elim trying to get the best of both world, being either in a position to move and vote against these people, or claim that they always knew they where village if they either died or the thread generally considers them to be cleared. read: neutral-ish, leaning somewhat elim. has shown some interest in game-solving, but their hedging on village reads looks off to me.

Amethyst scorpion

Somehow I missed them yesterday, so lets rectify that. They seem to be actively involved in solving the game, which is good. I don't necessarily agree with everything they're saying (guess which bits), but the fact that they're willing to take risks and go for harder lynches because they think there might be some merit to it read more village to me. Elim!scorpion would know which way I'd flip and the kind of attention that'd bring down on them, and would likely reserve a kill for me instead.

I would like to see how more of their reads pan out before solidifying my read, but it looks villagery so far.

Sage kangaroo

Two posts, no alignment indicative or even vaguely game-solving related content of any sort.

Salmon Meerkat

there's some game-thoughts here, but a lot of it is related to role-distribution, which can be a smoke-screen for an elim to hide behind for a bit. I don't have a read on them yet.

Scarlet octopus

Three posts. D1 they posted a bunch of RP, and then called me out for not being too open with my suspicions. I already noted it then but I'll note it again, calling someone out for that without reciprocating looks really off to me. It creates the appearance of activity and taking part in solving the game, without actually doing so.

That having been said, their post D2 is an improvement. Though I'm not convinced about their statistical method (and hope they'll elaborate a bit more once they're awake again), that post does speak off a decent amount off effort put into hunting elims, which I consider a village trait. If this trend continues over the coasting they where doing D1, then I'll probably start leaning village, but as yet I'm undecided.

Sunburst toucan

Two posts, no real content. NULL read.

Actually, given that sunburst has had some discussion happen about them, I'll add a bit more. I don't think their lack of content, including their lack of response to Tuatara's question, was in any way alignment indicative, simply because there's a lot more 'playing' like that this game and they can't all be elims.

Magenta Albatross

And with Toucan done, that brings me back to albatross. Their most recent explanation for the vote I found odd actually makes sense to me:

3 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Yeah, you basically got it exactly right. I knew my vote wouldn’t matter since I was gonna be moving someone else’s vote anyway, so I just picked someone to vote for and came up with a half-decent reason  to vote for them. I will still stand by my statement that Tuatara’s reluctance to answer the question is weird considering how ultimately meaningless of a question it was. But I wouldn’t have voted on them if I hadn’t been a Willshaper trying to prove my role to Penguin.

It doesn't necessarily clear them, but if they where an elim, then there where better ways they could have used their vote manip to try and keep Zebra alive, unless Toucan is an elim, then it would make some sense. I'm reading them Neutral right now, but if Toucan ends up flipping elim, I suggest taking a look at Albatross once everyone is done lynching me.

Taupe Gecko

Two posts, but one of them actually contains content! It's not much and pretty NAI, but at least they seem to be trying to take part in discussion.

Turquoise gorilla

Four posts, but they're once again mostly RP. They tag some inactives, and explicitly state that they're okay with the toucan/zebra lynch which I find really odd, given that neither lynch had much in the way of reasoning behind them, making them not all that useful from an info perspective (or rather, that's what they  would have been if it had been v/v). @Turquoise Gorilla, why did you think the Zebra/toucan lynch was a good thing? There isn't really enough for me to get a read on them, but I'm leaning ever so slightly elimmy.

Violet axolotl

Not much from them either, but their summary at least shows that they were following along closely. I'd have loved it if they actually included some conclusions on the various players, rather than just stating what they did. Neutral read.
 

@Pearl Chameleon, @Sage Kangaroo, @Salmon Meerkat, @Sunburst Toucan, @Taupe Gecko, @Violet Axolotl: All of you haven't been all that active, so I'll ask you the same question I did the other people that fell into that category: right now, who do you trust most and least?

I'd also like to just make a general note on activity. there's 6 players that have contributed extremely little so far, and several more that have said just a bit more, but also haven't been exactly active. We're halfway through D2 and quite a few players have yet to comment at all. This is not good. A game that is only being pulled forward by a couple of players is at a serious risk of dying, as these players are likely to get either night-killed or lynched, because they're the only ones people can form reads on.

Because of this, I'm going to push the lynch of one of the lesser actives this cycle I'm doing this in the hope that it dispels the notion that low activity equals safety to any low activity elims, that it gets the low activity villagers to post more and to avoid this game dying from a lack of active players before it even gets properly started. My vote is going to be on Toucan, to be precise. Several people seem to consider my alignment to be tied with his, and I think there's a tie with albatross as well (if they're village, then albatross is more likely to be village as well, and vice-versa).

[Plum Rhinoceros]

16 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Whoever it was that placed that attack order can probably reveal themselves, as they likely have a new role, so they can be cleared as village, and are most likely no longer a threat to the elims. Unless they are a permanent dustbringer. 

That would make them an almost guaranteed NK target for N2, as a cleared villager is as big a threat as any.

16 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Whoever it was that placed that attack order can probably reveal themselves, as they likely have a new role, so they can be cleared as village, and are most likely no longer a threat to the elims. Unless they are a permanent dustbringer. 

Maybe a good way to reveal the role would be to a trusted villager in a PM. If you dont currently have one, I do have one that I've been able to scan and learn is a villager.

 Ultimately, whoever you are, you know the consequences of revealing yourself better than the rest of us, so please consider who you're already in PMs with, and who you trust most, and who you are suspicious of before you just go about revealing. 

I'd say just keep it to yourself for now, until you scan a villager yourself (assuming you're a worldhopper)

15 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

With the large player base and likely large elim team, I don't think a bus of a teammate who hadn't shown up yet is impossible. It would mean a ruthless team, or a team who didn't see many options yet. It's possible Toucan is also elim (the other main lynch on D1), and Zebra was bussed to save the active one. Iguana's actions at the end would make some sense in that case.

Albatross later said bussing a worldhopper wouldn't be a smart move, but if everyone is a worldhopper, no one is a worldhopper then it doesn't matter if they lose one. 

I have been discussing this possibility with a player in PMs, and I agree that it does make more sense now that we've sorta come to a consensus that we're all worldhoppers, so the argument that bussing a teammate with a role that important has been effectively shot down. However, something that still bothers me is why the elims didn't execute it better, assuming it was indeed a bus. It was on D1, last-minute, and with 3 votes (one of them a villager, NK'd now). The elims would have gained a lot more by carefully planning a bus so that more than just one of them becomes trusted, preferably to "clear" some players who had been under some general suspicion from the thread. But this lynch that we had D1 just didn't seem to be all that purposeful to be perfectly honest. The only way that really makes sense to me is if Toucan is also an elim. But it was really just D1, and D1 events are always terribly arbitrary, in my experience. 

5 hours ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

On the topic of everyone being a worldhopper, I'm hesitant to think that would be the case, due to balance issues. I guess the number of elims kills should be a tell for this, at least for them; if they get a second kill in every second or third night (for 4 or 3 remaining players, respectively), then they probably are all worldhoppers.

Hmm how plausible is it that only 2 elims are left now? Because if we're all worldhoppers, then it's pretty likely that some of us may end up killing each other if we get the dustbringer role, therefore helping the elims. In this scenario, wouldn't a 4-player elim team make a little sense? Doesn't really matter though, I guess.

5 hours ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

Nothing Iguana has done makes me think he is an elim, but he is tied statistically to both Elims already revealed. He would be a highly informational lynch regardless of alignment.

We actually are in a position were we can afford to have a few mislynches for the sake of info, so that lynch might not be so bad. 

27 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Plum Rhinoceros

Four posts, one of which actually contained a decent amount of content. Someone providing their thoughts on the game is pretty nice and indicates that they're trying to solve the game, but I really didn't like the amount of hedging going on regarding his reads one me and Toucan. It could have been genuine uncertainty (Rhino definitely wasn't alone in that), but that kind of hedging, like with weasel, can also be a smokescreen for an elim trying to get the best of both world, being either in a position to move and vote against these people, or claim that they always knew they where village if they either died or the thread generally considers them to be cleared. read: neutral-ish, leaning somewhat elim. has shown some interest in game-solving, but their hedging on village reads looks off to me.

Well then I guess today's lynch should prove whether that was hedging or not  I don't think I ever talked about you in any of my posts actually, so I'm not sure where this is coming from. But if you want a definitive read from me on you and Toucan, I'm afraid I can't give you one. If Toucan flips elim, you are almost certainly one too. If you flip elim, Toucan is almost certainly one too. If you flip village, then this was all pointless just like everything else in a Rhino's life. If Toucan flips village, then you're probably village. This in mind, I think I'd like to do the honors of tying the lynch. Iguana 

At any rate, @Sunburst Toucan your notifications are probably exploding with all these mentions but your thoughts on this matter (or...on anything, really) would help a lot.

Vote Count (probably correct):

Iguana(2): Scorpion, Rhino

Toucan(2): Falcon, Iguana

Albatross(1): Mauve

Falcon(1): Octopus

But like I said before, I don't really think analysing the heck out of a D1 lynch is going to get us anywhere, and we still have plenty of time left in the turn, so I'm off to look at Ivory's posts. We should keep the discussion going, regardless of who we're lynching.

[Saffron Iguana]

8 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Well then I guess today's lynch should prove whether that was hedging or not  I don't think I ever talked about you in any of my posts actually, so I'm not sure where this is coming from.

Quote

I feel slightly good about Toucan and Iguana, I think. Though I wonder...what are the odds that both Toucan and Zebra are elims? Rollover's at a weird time for most of us, so it's probable that most of the elim team was asleep and didn't get the chance to defend either of them? That does seem like a little bit of a stretch though. God, I wish I were a Skybreaker. XD

This is where it came from.

[Magenta Albatross]

Toucan. I don’t think it makes sense to lynch the more active player of the pair of people whose alignments are linked together like they are (apparently). 

I don’t like how this lynch has been set up, but there’s not really a lot of other options. At least, I can’t see any right now. 

[Saffron Iguana]

4 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

I don’t like how this lynch has been set up, but there’s not really a lot of other options. At least, I can’t see any right now. 

I agree, mostly. However, most actives seem to focus on solving the game, and players like that will eventually provide enough clues to their alignment, and often also enough clues to can an entire elim team if they're evil and allowed to dig themselves deep enough, so I'm disinclined to push a suspicion on the few actively taking part right now when I could observe for a bit longer to form a solid read. And those that are less active just haven't posted enough to allow people to get a good read as far as I can tell.

So if anyone that hasn't shared their thoughts yet could start weighing in so there's more than 2-3 players to discuss, that'd be nice  

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Um yeah lol turns out Ivory’s posts literally do not give anything away. That’s very rude of you, Ivory.  Though I suppose, like someone else said, that their lack of substantial posting was probably what got them vigilante’d. 

18 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

This is where it came from.

Fair, but that really would’ve been a standard response from just about anyone, given the situation. Take this whole lynch discussion this turn’s been about till now, for example. 

17 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Toucan. I don’t think it makes sense to lynch the more active player of the pair of people whose alignments are linked together like they are (apparently). 

I don’t like how this lynch has been set up, but there’s not really a lot of other options. At least, I can’t see any right now. 

Do you have any gut reads that you’d like to pursue?

[Magenta Albatross]

9 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Do you have any gut reads that you’d like to pursue?

You, actually. Something about your last post (the one before the one I’m quoting from right now) just felt really off to me. There was one part that really set me off though: 

42 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Hmm how plausible is it that only 2 elims are left now? Because if we're all worldhoppers, then it's pretty likely that some of us may end up killing each other if we get the dustbringer role, therefore helping the elims. In this scenario, wouldn't a 4-player elim team make a little sense? Doesn't really matter though, I guess.

An elim team of only 4 players in a game this size would only be 17% of the total amount of players. I know the 20%/25% rule isn’t a hard rule, but 17% (technically 16.667%) just seems way too low to me. Plus, assuming everyone is a worldhopper  (which feels like a safe assumption at this point), that’s the potential for way too many village kills for such a small team. This part of your post feels like it’s trying to lull us into a sense of safety, make us underestimate the size of the elim team. Because of the sheer amount of possible village kills (imagine if 5 people all randomly received Dustbringer the same cycle), I believe that a 5 elim team is almost too low.

Plus, there’s also this part: 

47 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

We actually are in a position were we can afford to have a few mislynches for the sake of info, so that lynch might not be so bad. 

This, paired with the other part of your post I quoted, makes me think you’re setting us up to become complacent with our lynches. We do technically have a pretty decent amount of wiggle room when it comes to mislynches, but letting them happen all up front does us no good.

Plus I also think that Iguana/Toucan are probably both village, and it makes more sense to lynch Toucan if you’re gonna lynch either of them, which makes me distrust you even more. But that’s just the cherry on top of the cake that is the rest of my distrust for you.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Well  

35 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

An elim team of only 4 players in a game this size would only be 17% of the total amount of players. I know the 20%/25% rule isn’t a hard rule, but 17% (technically 16.667%) just seems way too low to me. Plus, assuming everyone is a worldhopper  (which feels like a safe assumption at this point), that’s the potential for way too many village kills for such a small team. This part of your post feels like it’s trying to lull us into a sense of safety, make us underestimate the size of the elim team. Because of the sheer amount of possible village kills (imagine if 5 people all randomly received Dustbringer the same cycle), I believe that a 5 elim team is almost too low.

Think of it this way, imagine if two or three elims randomly all receive Dustbringer in the same cycle? Unlike the village, the elims actually know who they need to target, so a large elim team would be pretty scary. And I suspect most of the village kills would just end up helping the elims. In that sense a small elim team makes sense to me, because that in a way ensures that they have less potential kills. 

35 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

This, paired with the other part of your post I quoted, makes me think you’re setting us up to become complacent with our lynches. We do technically have a pretty decent amount of wiggle room when it comes to mislynches, but letting them happen all up front does us no good.

Plus I also think that Iguana/Toucan are probably both village, and it makes more sense to lynch Toucan if you’re gonna lynch either of them, which makes me distrust you even more. But that’s just the cherry on top of the cake that is the rest of my distrust for you.

I’d be more than happy to vote elsewhere - as I’ve said in my previous post, I don’t think we’re really going anywhere with the whole toucan/iguana discussion (I’m not completely sold on the idea of a bus because I just don’t understand what motives the elims might’ve had for it, save for toucan being an elim) And my vote was meant to leave it to the Gods of Luck and Chance, because there’s no denying that lynching one of them will give us useful info on how to proceed, plus I don’t see any other way this vote can go. I agree that Iguana is the more active one, and I’m honestly almost indifferent to which of the two gets lynched as I think they both provide equal amount of info. But killing the active ones should probably be avoided whenever possible, so I might just remove my vote from Iguana since it’s not really even tied anymore. 

If you think neither of them are elims, vote on me. 

Edited December 30, 2019 by Plum Rhinoceros
Grammar

[Magenta Albatross]

32 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

If you think neither of them are elims, vote on me.

I will if you move your vote off of Iguana.

Also, your post makes sense, but I disagree about the elim team size. There are far more possible village kills than extra elim kills. And even though a lot of the village kills would hit also hit villagers, they would still probably hit a couple elims, severely limiting the elims.