Mid-Range Game 39: For Science

[Elandera]

I don't believe CadCom submitted the kill last turn. He came to me with an action claim very early in the turn and other statements/PMs have confirmed it is probable. (Ninja'd by CadCom while I was working on analysis) Since he's made his statement, I can confirm. CadCom PMed me shortly after my first post this cycle, willingly offering the information that he'd stolen from Lemonelon long before Lemon posted about being the victim of theft. While this could be a ruse, I'm willing to go with Occam's Razor explanation here. 

Are we ignoring the possibility that there were elims on at the end of the cycle who chose to not submit a new kill order because they had other items/actions that were priority? Consider this: an item is destroyed when a player dies. Elims may have believe thieving was a better option on D1 than ensuring two deaths, as they could potentially get more items to use rather than have items destroyed so soon. I personally believe we narrowed our suspects too much, too soon. One of the elims was likely not around, but probably not all of them.

StrikerEZ - Seems genuine in PM, normal oddness in C1 posts (there's a reason he's always lynched early  ). C2 posts have seemed wishy-washy, stating he doesn't want to lynch CadCom, but seems to be setting up making that vote regardless. Neutral to elim read.

Kynedath -  Not sure why he believe CadCom is more suspicious than the other two proposed activity-based targets. Some other statement seem off, like they're trying to get people to focus in the wrong directions. I still disagree we need to be focusing on those who weren't around at the end of cycle. Seemed to do the same C1 when he suggested those without items are more likely to be elim targets. (Is the elim plan to steal all the things, rather than destroy?)  Slight elim read

DeTess - Good contributions to both mechanic and suspicion discussion. Neutral to village read

Stick - I agree with her suggestion Sart's sheep vote would be a bad move for an elim, as it would (and did) draw a lot of attention. Neutral read

Sart - I'm a little miffed still that they said I was sitting on the sidelines, so I can't really be unbiased in my opinion. Despite that, I don't think his votes are overtly suspicious. They seem relatively in-line with his past style. Neutral

Butt Ad Venture - Three posts so far. Voted on twice, which helped start lynch discussion. First post was mostly RP with a little discussion about the black market/gun. Second was a response to the votes, and more mechanic discussion. Third was a vote on Sart without reasoning beyond agreeing with others. Neutral (mostly for lack of content)

CadCom - Seems genuine in PMs. See beginning of post for my reasoning. Village lean

Lemonelon - Neutral

Elkanah - Neutral

Devotary of Spontaneity - Some good contributions, but I don't like the push toward a Coda lynch at the end of the cycle. However, that's not enough for a solid read on Devo. Neutral

Kidpen - Neutral

Twibanu - Early game mechanic analysis, made very good points and asked questions I wouldn't expect an elim to ask in the thread. Was one of the first to offer up reads. Village lean

A Joe in the Bush - I agree with his post D1 with suspicion on Kynedath. Otherwise, there hasn't been much from him to analyze. Neutral

(Scale progression: Elim Read, Slight Elim, Neutral to Elim, Neutral, Neutral to Village, Slight Village, Village.)

Seeing as how my strongest read right now is Kynedath, that's were my vote is going.

[Kynedath]

4 minutes ago, Elandera said:

 Are we ignoring the possibility that there were elims on at the end of the cycle who chose to not submit a new kill order because they had other items/actions that were priority? Consider this: an item is destroyed when a player dies. Elims may have believe thieving was a better option on D1 than ensuring two deaths, as they could potentially get more items to use rather than have items destroyed so soon. I personally believe we narrowed our suspects too much, too soon. One of the elims was likely not around, but probably not all of them.

 

Kynedath -  Not sure why he believe CadCom is more suspicious than the other two proposed activity-based targets. Some other statement seem off, like they're trying to get people to focus in the wrong directions. I still disagree we need to be focusing on those who weren't around at the end of cycle. Seemed to do the same C1 when he suggested those without items are more likely to be elim targets. (Is the elim plan to steal all the things, rather than destroy?)  Slight elim read

I'm not ignoring that there could be other elims on at the end of the cycle. They absolutely could have been. But there was most likely at least one who was absent. That means that we have a much higher chance of finding an elim in those three than looking at the entire playerbase. 1/3 chances are better than 1/14, that's why I think we should be focusing on them. You're right that probably not all of them are in those three, but one of them almost definitely is. If we find an elim in those three we have much more info to find the others.

I've outlined my suspicions of CadCom earlier, I won't repeat them here. What I will say though is that with the items point, I was mostly thinking that if a player has an item and the eliminators don't know what it is then there's the possibility it could be a bullet proof vest which could mess with every plan they have. That's all. It was my mistake to extend that assumption to all items. I should have been clearer.

[Elandera]

8 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

I'm not ignoring that there could be other elims on at the end of the cycle. They absolutely could have been. But there was most likely at least one who was absent. That means that we have a much higher chance of finding an elim in those three than looking at the entire playerbase. 1/3 chances are better than 1/14, that's why I think we should be focusing on them. You're right that probably not all of them are in those three, but one of them almost definitely is. If we find an elim in those three we have much more info to find the others.

I've outlined my suspicions of CadCom earlier, I won't repeat them here. What I will say though is that with the items point, I was mostly thinking that if a player has an item and the eliminators don't know what it is then there's the possibility it could be a bullet proof vest which could mess with every plan they have. That's all. It was my mistake to extend that assumption to all items. I should have been clearer.

That makes sense. I just think there were more than three people not around at the end of the turn, both of us included, according to the last posts of the turn. I'm not sure how it got narrowed down to just those three. 

Your item explanation does seem like a fair assessment. The possibility of a vest would throw some wrenches in the elim's plans, but I don't think it's enough to completely deter an attack on someone. I'll take another look at your posts (hopefully while I don't have work calling away my train of though every five seconds). For now, though, my vote stays. 

[StrikerEZ]

44 minutes ago, Elandera said:

StrikerEZ - Seems genuine in PM, normal oddness in C1 posts (there's a reason he's always lynched early  ).

I’m still not sure what exactly it is about my play style C1 that always gets me lynched. Even though it is kinda annoying, it does make for some fun jokes.

45 minutes ago, Elandera said:

C2 posts have seemed wishy-washy, stating he doesn't want to lynch CadCom, but seems to be setting up making that vote regardless. Neutral to elim read.

...I’m surprised you read my post that way. I thought I made it pretty obvious I was only gonna vote for him if later posts didn’t help set up an alibi for him. Both his posts and your posts make believe that, even if CadCom is an elim, he’s not lying about his action last cycle. It would take both you and Lemon also being elims for it to work. While that’s not impossible, I don’t think you guys would be the type to make a play like that. 

Anyway, all that’s just to say that I’m not gonna vote on CadCom.

As for Kynedath, you do make a good point that he seems to have focused on a very small group of players. Which I also made the mistake of doing. So, while it is odd that he’s continuing to do so, I wouldn’t say it’s necessarily because he’s an elim. Plus, I think I trust him from our PMs.

[Furamirionind]

30 minutes ago, Elandera said:

That makes sense. I just think there were more than three people not around at the end of the turn, both of us included, according to the last posts of the turn. I'm not sure how it got narrowed down to just those three. 

Your item explanation does seem like a fair assessment. The possibility of a vest would throw some wrenches in the elim's plans, but I don't think it's enough to completely deter an attack on someone. I'll take another look at your posts (hopefully while I don't have work calling away my train of though every five seconds). For now, though, my vote stays. 

So... I originally found that, assuming that elims couldn't change the previous kill target, it would make the most sense that whoever submitted the kill wasn't online. That left the players Kidpen, Elkanah, & CadCom (completely due to him outing himself as having not been online, as I couldn't have proven it without him saying so).

However, now that we know that other elims could change the first elim's kill order, all of that analysis on time is completely useless. I don't really suspect CadCom right now, and idk about Elkanah... but I do suspect that people pushing this idea a bit more now.
Particularly people who haven't really gone after anyone in particular or subtly just encouraged people going down this rabbit hole... Such as myself xD

Edit:
I just realized, if I was an elim, which I totally and completely am not... But if I was, and if Kynedath was my teammate, I would be really proud of my defense of them I just posted. I mean, I'm not proud of the defense I just posted, because it isn't a defense of them at all... Just if it was, I'd be very happy with myself xD

Ed2t:
Though... If it had been a defence, I probably should have posted this either before Elandera's most recent one, or after a couple more people posted... You know... To distance it from the idea of Kynedath a bit...
See? Proof this isn't me being evil! : P

Edited December 23, 2019 by Twibanu

[Kynedath]

I'm a bit confused, why does the fact that elims can override the kill orders of the other elims make the analysis invalid? I don't see a reason that an eliminator would knowingly leave their kill order on someone who was going to be lynched. That doesn't change if the other eliminators can override their kill order. The person who killed Coda most likely put the order in fairly early on and then didn't take the order off because they weren't around to notice the lynch swing to Coda. If they were on then they could have and probably would have changed the kill order to someone else. It doesn't really matter what the other elims were doing since even if they could change that order, they didn't.

I may very well be holding onto those three more than I should, and I'm open to discussing others but I really think that there is an eliminator within those three. If I'm missing something in relation to my previous paragraph then I'll revise my assumptions, but by my logic one of those three is probably an eliminator and I think CadCom seems the most suspicious right now.

[Furamirionind]

Your belief in this analysis is based on the premise that Elims wouldn't want to kill the lynch target. If they would never let that happen, that would mean that none of them were online over rollover. If that is the case, the full elim team is CadCom, Elkanah, and Kidpen (who hasn't been online in over 48 hours). If you adamantly believe that to be the case, I think Kidpen would be a better lynch.

The alternative to that is that there may have been 1 or more elims online that either forgot about the kill, or didn't care. If that is the case, as many as all of them could have gotten online before rollover. If this is the case, the elims could still be anyone, and we are really tunnelling on something that means nothing.

Personally, I see the second as significantly more likely. I'd love to hear your thoughts though.

And just to be clear, there absolutely could be an elim in those three. If there is, CadCom is the one I'd be least willing to lynch. Elkanah technically was last online in the sweet spot of late enough to reasonably submit the kill, and early enough to miss the voting... Or maybe the elim left 17S running and walked away from their computer, so the website thought they were online... Or maybe they did this intentionally just to mess with our heads (which, would be a great idea I must say).
I think there are just too many factors.

[Kynedath]

Right, okay so I must be forgetting that the other eliminators who would have been on would have changed it from that. I would be focusing on the one person who would have theoretically been gone for that part.

. . . I see it now. Stormfather, I feel so thick. Okay, CadCom I apologize for being so bull headed. I need to think this over, I'll probably be back in the morning to start my whole train of thought over.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Mauve had been too slow in escaping. With the death of Absodel, nobody was being allowed to leave. Any attempt to run would be noticed, and while Mauve still had his sniper rifle,  such a weapon was not well suited for close quarters. Trying to shoot his way out would be futile and likely result in his death. That left waiting for Enforcement to crack down and fleeing in the chaos, or working alongside the Doctor until an opportunity arose to bail. Enforcement had to be coming soon, as his Core surely would have noticed his failure to respond to his mobile by now and would be searching for him near his last reported location. Or they would assume him dead, recruit some other sniper, and forget about him. Mauve tried not to think about that. His Epic commander, Professor Burns, didn't seem to care too much about anyone, but the other three members of the Core would at the very least miss having an experienced sniper. Surely anyone new wouldn't have the same years of training, right? They had to come for him eventually.

Do note that there are almost certainly people who checked on the Shard in the ~2.5 hour time period between C1 rollover and Twibanu's post. CadCom, Elkanah, and Kidpen definitely missed rollover, but they certainly don't have been the only ones. Striker, Twibanu, Sart, and Stick definitely were around, but anyone else is an unknown. That somewhat helps their cases, though Twibanu might have been able to swing a lynch to someone other than Coda if Sart/Coda was a supposed v/v. 

Unless someone else wants to claim thieving from Lemon, CadCom is likely telling the truth about his action. @Kidpen will die from the inactivity filter at the end of this cycle unless he posts. 

[StrikerEZ]

Nathan had seemed to have misplaced his lucky knife. Or, he thought to himself, scratching his chin, one of the rest of the team stole it from me. He spent some time searching and asking around for his knife, and soon found out that many people had tried to steal his knife, but when they'd gone to steal it, it was already gone. What a shame. That knife had been with him through thick and thin, and it sucked that he had lost it.

After grieving for his lost knife for a bit longer, Nathan realized that people were trying to figure out who could've killed Absodel. He wasn't the sharpest knife...well, he wasn't even really a knife at all anymore since he'd lost his, huh. Nathan wasn't the sharpest crayon in the box, but he figured that anyone who had tried stealing his knife probably couldn't have been out shanking people with it. Because if they were looking for a knife, they probably couldn't be out killing anyone at the same time.

Okay, so I think I've got a pretty decent idea of all the actions that people took last cycle. I'm sorry if anyone didn't want me revealing actions they'd told me about in PMs to the thread, but this might help us figure out who might've submitted the kill.

1. StrikerEZ: Stole from Kynedath
2. Kynedath: Stole from Elandera
3. DeTess: Unknown
4. Stick: Stole from Striker
5. Sart: Unknown
6. Butt Venture: Unknown
7. Elandera: Unknown
8. CadCom: Stole from Lemon
9. Lemonelon: Stole from Striker
10. Elkanah: Claims to have forgotten to submit an action
11. Coda: Dead; confirmed village
12. Devotary of Spontaneity: Unknown
13. Kidpen: Unknown
14. Twibanu: Claims to have both stolen and not stolen from me
15. A Joe in the Bush: Stole from Striker

So, our potential killer suspects are DeTess, Sart, Venture, Elandera, Elkanah (if they lied), Devotary, Kidpen, or Twibanu (depending on who they lied to). I'm putting my vote on Twibanu 1) because they either lied to me or Joe, 2) because Kynedath couldn't have put in the kill because I got the binoculars he stole from Elandera, 3) I'm too tired right now to try and figure out who else it could be out of our suspects, 4) I'm feeling rash and want to figure out why Fura lied and to which of us he lied, and 5) trying to get one elim out of 7 other candidates is a lot harder than voting on someone who has done something that screams elim to me.

Edited December 23, 2019 by StrikerEZ
How many times can Striker misspell unknown? Apparently four :P

[Stick.]

17 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

• StrikerEZ: Stole from Kynedath
• Kynedath: Stole from Elandera
• DeTess: Unknown
• Stick: Stole from Striker
• Sart: Unknown
• Butt Venture: Unknown
• Elandera: Unknown
• CadCom: Stole from Lemon
• Lemonelon: Stole from Striker
• Elkanah: Claims to have forgotten to submit an action
• Coda: Dead; confirmed village
• Devotary of Spontaneity: Unknown
• Kidpen: Unknown
• Twibanu: Claims to have both stolen and not stolen from me
• A Joe in the Bush: Stole from Striker

I can confirm that this is exactly what I’ve been told by these players, except for Twibanu, who I haven’t talked to in PMs since last cycle. 

[DeTess]

Regarding my own action, I didn't submit any, which I know isn't very helpful   

Anyway I think it might be a good idea to lynch someone in the three identified by Twibanu. Yes, it could be that the elims just forgot, but based on my own experiences as an elim, I don't think that's very likely. Lynching just one person in that 3-man group can also either confirm that theory, or put it to rest, as if the elims where all inactive in the final hours, that group of three is entirely guilty.

So, let's take a look at the three of them*

Kidpen:

Kidpen stated disagreement that knives where particularly dangerous in the hands of the elims, and then posted some RP, nothing more. This is quite completely NAI.

Elkanah:

Elkanah's posts bug me. His first post kinda feels like a 'greatest hits of things to say as a villager', including some analysis and exhortations to being active. However, something about it feels off. he seems to eb cautioning against using kill roles because they would make the game even shorter (but 5 cycles minimum is pretty average), but in reality the best way to use kill roles is to use them smartly, which the one-shot nature already enforces. The suggestion that the elims have few items and that there's likely 4 also feel off to me. I disagree, as I stated before, but it almost feels like its an intentional portrayal of the opposite situation to what's likely.

Their second post seems designed to show confusion and uncertainty about the coda kill, with Elkanah stating uncertainty about what exactly happened, surprise at the fact coda was killed at all, and stating that for that to make sense, someone needed to have more info through a PM, which he didn't have.

Cadcom: 

I'm not getting much of a read on cadcom one way or another. They're active, and take some part in discussion. However, most of D2 they've only been posting defensively, pointing out that they're not the only one to not have been one, and claiming an alibi by taking another action. However, their alibi does not guarantee them being village at all, as 'not being on to change the kill' is the basis for people being in this group. I also agree with Kynedath's observation that they seem to be analyzing information, but not really taking it anywhere.

So, based on this I'm fine with lynching either Elkanah (Sart) or Cadcom.

 

*yeah, I'm running analysis despite just stating that based on one theory they're all elims, but that's no reason not to try and get the mos guilty-looking anyway, especially if I'm wrong.

 

 

[CadCom]

Alright, Sorry guys, weekends are difficult for me. Anyways, Lets see if I can get some good player analysis in now, as well as my first vote of the game. 

1. StrikerEZ - Through PM's and what they've said in thread, seems pretty genuine. It could just be that they're an elim that hasn't been disingenuous yet. But for the most part I'm willing to trust Striker for now. 

2. Kynedath - Originally I had suspicions on them for a couple of their first posts at the beginning of this cycle. As I've continued to read, I think it really does read as a concerned villager. 

3. DeTess - Something about their last post doesn't really sit right with me. I'm not exactly certain what it is though. Maybe it's how they seem to be sheeping Twibanu. The other thing that I think bothered me is that they still seemed to try to focus on the original 3 discussed, even after a long discussion (Admittedly a good portion about me) it seemed as if the thread had for the most part moved past that idea, and had moved on to other candidates. It also seems like they may have been trying to put together a quick response to direct attention off the last person who was proposed for the lynch, Twibanu. Two people, who both have unconfirmed actions from last cycle, per the post by Striker. 

4. Stick - Their posts read like a stick. And that is good, because that is who it is. Seriously though, it seems mostly genuine, if not a bit quick. I don't have much to analyze there. 

5. Sart - seems to be the topic of some discussion yet hasn't been on this cycle, as far as I could see to really contribute or respond. I'd be probably willing to not pursue much further from them at this time. 

6. Butt Venture - I would like to see more content from them, but if they're busy I understand. 

7. Elandera - Through PM, I have a pretty good feeling about Elandera. Not confirmed village, but definitely leaning that direction. 

8. CadCom -

9. Lemonelon - Haven't pm'd him, despite stealing his item. Thanks for that by the way. So I haven't gotten much of a read on them up to this point. 

10. Elkanah - is probably the one of the three mentioned by many that I would end up voting for. But honestly I haven't looked a whole lot into their posts, so that's just feeling based off of DeTess's post above mine. (It's a bit ironic that that post makes me suspicious of DeTess, yet at the same time, I agree with it. But C'est la vie

11.  Coda - Absodel (student of medicine) - Loyal

12. Devotary of Spontaneity - I'm always suspicious of Devotary, but in this game it's no more than normal, so as of now, I don't think I'm ready to add more suspicion to that.

13. Kidpen - I think I've only seen one post from them. While hypothetically this would make for a good argument stating they placed the action before not coming back to see the switch, it also doesn't make a ton of sense, because someone so inactive wouldn't have wanted to have his fellow elim team mates rely on him for putting in the action. It could have been something unexpected I guess, but I find it less likely that kidpen is evil.

14. Twibanu - The fact that they apparently lied to at least one person is concerning, and may be enough for me to warrant putting a vote on them. I'm not certain about that though. I'd have to look more into it when I have more time. 

15. A Joe in the Bush - Earlier this cycle I had suspicions of Joe. Let me see if I can remember why *Proceeds to reread Joe's posts* Oh yes, I found it odd that he claimed to be a third person to try to steal from Striker. I mean it could be that many people really didn't trust him so lots of people tried to steal him, and as the cycle went along up until now, that seems to be more likely to be the case. Still interesting nonetheless. 

-------------

If I had to choose my own elim team from the above, based on my opinions, it would be DeTess, Twibanu(who I still want to call fura) and Joe. But that probably isn't the most well thought out list. Regardless, I'll still place my vote on DeTess for now. As more info comes out, I may change to Twibanu though. @DeTess @Twibanu

------------

------------

RP Edited in

@Butt Ad Venture 

Cowering in a corner, Character found himself still trying to get his eyes to adjust to the darkness. He thought he had lost the uniformed men. One benefit of being a small person instead of a grown-up. But he could never be certain until he had waited for a long time. 

After rounding a few corners, Character found an open stormdrain, and hopped down, and started running through the tunnels. He had to remember he went Right, then Left, then down another ladder, then Right. He didn't dare go further so he could get back more easily. Being lost in the dark tunnels would be so much worse than being lost in a market. He might never be able to find food down here, but the market was teeming with it. 

All of a sudden from over his left shoulder, he heard a voice. "“Well...this crazy business about daggers and epics? Too much for us common folks eh?”

More than just startled, Character screamed, and turned find a shadow of a man. Trying to turn back an run, he tripped over something on the ground. 

Finding himself fallen before this ominous shadow, he could find the words to squeak out nothing more than "H- Help. D- Don't hurt me please!" 

Edited December 23, 2019 by CadCom

[DeTess]

51 minutes ago, CadCom said:

3. DeTess - Something about their last post doesn't really sit right with me. I'm not exactly certain what it is though. Maybe it's how they seem to be sheeping Twibanu. The other thing that I think bothered me is that they still seemed to try to focus on the original 3 discussed, even after a long discussion (Admittedly a good portion about me) it seemed as if the thread had for the most part moved past that idea, and had moved on to other candidates. It also seems like they may have been trying to put together a quick response to direct attention off the last person who was proposed for the lynch, Twibanu. Two people, who both have unconfirmed actions from last cycle, per the post by Striker. 

 

I had noticed that the thread had moved on, but its something I don't understand. Can you explain to me why it is not worthwhile to look into these three for at least a single cycle to confirm or deny the inactivity theory around the way the lynch worked out?

[Furamirionind]

If DeTess and I were on an elim team, I'd ask to post first to dispel these things about me. I know these sort of comments don't help *too* much, but Striker's vote is an attempt to get me to explain myself. Something I wouldn't need a teammate to save me from.

Anyways, I'm a little miffed that Joe lied to me... But as I lied to him, I suppose that serves me right. I didn't take an action last night, and when Joe asked in thread if anyone else Stole from Striker, I PMed him telling him that I did.
I gained some info that I otherwise wouldn't have gotten, so I'm pretty happy about that.

Granted, I did trust Joe's word that he wouldn't share the identities of those that contacted him. - _ -

---

If we are to lynch one of the three, I think Elkanah is the best choice, but I don't think information lynches are very fun in general. And I don't think it will gain us that much info. CadCom would be a more informative information lynch... But again, see the above sentence.

EDIT:

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

1. StrikerEZ: Stole from Kynedath
2. Kynedath: Stole from Elandera
3. DeTess: Unknown
4. Stick: Stole from Striker
5. Sart: Unknown
6. Butt Venture: Unknown
7. Elandera: Unknown
8. CadCom: Stole from Lemon
9. Lemonelon: Stole from Striker
10. Elkanah: Claims to have forgotten to submit an action
11. Coda: Dead; confirmed village
12. Devotary of Spontaneity: Unknown
13. Kidpen: Unknown
14. Twibanu: Claims to have both stolen and not stolen from me
15. A Joe in the Bush: Stole from Striker

I can confirm that this is exactly what I’ve been told by these players, except for Twibanu, who I haven’t talked to in PMs since last cycle. 

I can confirm that I have claimed both. : P

ED2T:
(Yes, I'm copying Aman)
@DeTess If Kidpen is going to die today anyways, lets use that as our method of finding out if all three are evil. If Kidpen flips evil, then we can kill Elkanah, and then decide if CadCom is the right person to kill. If Kidpen flips village, we know our logic is flawed.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Twibanu

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

11 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I had noticed that the thread had moved on, but its something I don't understand. Can you explain to me why it is not worthwhile to look into these three for at least a single cycle to confirm or deny the inactivity theory around the way the lynch worked out?

I think the big thing is that we have no idea how many people weren't around for rollover, but the list presumably contains more than three people. We know those three missed it, but anyone who didn't post after my vote might not have noticed that Coda was being lynched. You CadCom(who admitted it), and Elandera posted before Twibanu did and could have missed rollover for anyone was paying attention. People like me who checked in on the lynch/kill results but didn't post anything could have missed rollover.

[Furamirionind]

Exactly. AND I don't think any of us know exactly how the time away counter actually works. If you just walk away from your computer for an hour but leave it running, does it mark you as away or online? What if you have it up on your phone but turn it off? What if it is up on your computer, but you are on a different webpage?

I mentioned when I originally shared my findings, that this method of analysis is flawed, and this is why. None of us know what those numbers truly mean.
and... i think the game is more fun this way. Being able to find elims on meta, should never be a thing. Lynching based on when someone was last online sucks, it isn't fun for me, and it definitely isn't fun for the lynchee. This is why places like MU don't have a counter for when someone was last online. If we all agree to log offline and not show up for a cycle, then if someone died, we kill the only person to log on during that cycle.  I don't think stuff like that is a good idea.

[Kynedath]

Kynedath (1): Elandera

Twibanu (1): StrikerEZ

Elkanah (1): DeTess

DeTess (1): CadCom

 

Okay, so we are all tied up at one vote apiece if I'm counting correctly. I don't think this is a good idea personally, I don't like the idea of no lynch on day 2. I'm convinced that the three people that have been the main focus of the cycle shouldn't be the main focus of the lynch for reasons stated above by both Devotary and Twibanu. I'm not going to lie, I don't have many suspicions ever since Twibanu explained to me why my main method of reasoning was flawed. I don't really want to vote on anyone with a vote on them right now, but I also on't want to vote on anyone new since that just makes deciding on someone to lynch that much harder for the whole village. I don't have the time to do an in-depth analysis of everyone, so I think I'm going to see what happens to the vote before deciding where to put my own vote.

 

[CadCom]

22 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

If we are to lynch one of the three, I think Elkanah is the best choice, but I don't think information lynches are very fun in general. And I don't think it will gain us that much info. CadCom would be a more informative information lynch... But again, see the above sentence.

 

I guess I don't see how I would be a very informative lynch option, seeing as I have quite a few people who have been able to validate somewhat independently my claim I could even have Lemon verify it by confirming whether or not I got a knife from him. 

31 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I had noticed that the thread had moved on, but its something I don't understand. Can you explain to me why it is not worthwhile to look into these three for at least a single cycle to confirm or deny the inactivity theory around the way the lynch worked out?

Just as Devotary said, We can't know that there were only three people who weren't able to be on after that had been seen. So just choosing three, seems rather arbitrary to me, regardless of who they are. 

----

I guess lynching me would put some information out. But seeing as it's only determining whether one specific theory was correct as well as whether or not I actually stole from lemon. (Which has already been mostly confirmed.) I really don't think it would be the most informational lynch. 

@Kynedath, I understand where you are coming from, not wanting to put a new vote out there. If you have any specific people in mind, maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to discuss them in thread, and we can all decide whether they are a good alternative. As for the moment, I am keeping my vote, but I'd be willing to change it if a better option (in my own opinion) is presented. 

[+Ed Venture]

...oh hey. This is what I forgot about.

So, I currently have no big claims. I feel relatively good about everyone but Twibanu, who is currently highest on my suspect list. Something about them doesn't sit right with me. I'm less suspicious of Sart and Tess, but they are next on my list. I'm afraid I have no opinion on Joe.

I didn't do anything last night if that helps anyone, not that I could do anything. So far this game hasn't been very cut and dry for me. I'm more lost than in any game I've played before.

~ ~ ~

A scream pierced Charley's ears. He took a step back as frantic pleas for mercy followed. "Kid," he grunted, "I don't think hurting you would help me in the slightest. It's not like you have any money or anything." Charley chuckled and reached out his hand. "Come on. It's more than a bit dangerous over here...and over there...and everywhere really. You follow me? I'll take you to somewhere...safer." Then, assuming that the unknown person would follow, he slunk off through the dark tunnels toward where the rest of the doctor's gang would be. Sure there was a gun sitting around somewhere, but his friends and him would root out the traitors. As the tunnel got brighter Charley heard shouts, a few acquisitions, and at least one scream. Their doctor was dead. Grumbling to himself Charley thought "And all I wanted was some peace and quiet."

[DeTess]

43 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

 

@DeTess If Kidpen is going to die today anyways, lets use that as our method of finding out if all three are evil. If Kidpen flips evil, then we can kill Elkanah, and then decide if CadCom is the right person to kill. If Kidpen flips village, we know our logic is flawed.

I could agree to that, but if kidpen comes by at the last minute this line if thought will remain unresolved (this is not meant to discourage @Kidpen from checking in btw).

I haven't had the time to look in-depth into anyone else though (and I won't habe before turnover), but if I were to move my vote outside of those 3, it'd be to one of sart, kynedath, or twibanu. Sart for the same reason as I initially voted on him this cycle, Twibanu because of gut, and kynedath because I'm having serious trouble finding a village argument for why they don't get stuck into the voting game now.

 

[Stick.]

@DeTess @Twibanu Why didn't you take any actions last cycle? You could've chosen to guard your items, or steal from somebody you suspected of being an elim if you started with no items.

1 hour ago, CadCom said:

9. Lemonelon - Haven't pm'd him, despite stealing his item. Thanks for that by the way. So I haven't gotten much of a read on them up to this point. 

Why did you steal from her then? Was it just a lucky shot in the dark? Why didn't you choose to PM her and maybe confirm whether she even had an item so that you won't be wasting your action? Also, if there's someone else who stole from Lemon and would like to refute CadCom's claim, please send me a PM or just state it in thread.

53 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

I gained some info that I otherwise wouldn't have gotten, so I'm pretty happy about that.

Out of interest, was that info info that isn't public knowledge by now?

 

[CadCom]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Why did you steal from her then? Was it just a lucky shot in the dark? Why didn't you choose to PM her and maybe confirm whether she even had an item so that you won't be wasting your action? Also, if there's someone else who stole from Lemon and would like to refute CadCom's claim, please send me a PM or just state it in thread.

I try to choose people who are kindof able to fly under the radar, therefore allowing for more info to be made available. Mostly it was a stab in the dark, as I prefer that style on D1 to kindof randomize the information received. 

[DeTess]

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

@DeTess @Twibanu Why didn't you take any actions last cycle? You could've chosen to guard your items, or steal from somebody you suspected of being an elim if you started with no items.

I didn't have any items to protect, and had no suspicions strong enough to want to start sabotaging other players.

[Furamirionind]

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

@DeTess @Twibanu Why didn't you take any actions last cycle? You could've chosen to guard your items, or steal from somebody you suspected of being an elim if you started with no items.

Why did you steal from her then? Was it just a lucky shot in the dark? Why didn't you choose to PM her and maybe confirm whether she even had an item so that you won't be wasting your action? Also, if there's someone else who stole from Lemon and would like to refute CadCom's claim, please send me a PM or just state it in thread.

Out of interest, was that info info that isn't public knowledge by now?

 

So, I didn't take any action because I don't have an item to protect, and I wanted to wait until I had some reads before I stole from anyone... Then I promptly forgot I could steal from people as I got caught up in the rollover voting between Sart and Coda.

Is the info not public knowledge? partly.