Mid-Range Game 39: For Science

[Elandera]

@Sart, I'm not intentionally sitting on the sidelines. I've been storming busy for the last two/three days. I didn't have time to really consider the lynch candidates when I posted, and didn't have a chance to get on for more than 30 seconds after that until just now.

To the person who stole from me... know that I am not happy, and that I will hunt you down. Or you could just PM me and we can work together.

I agree with CadCom. The kill target was likely submitted earlier in the turn/day, before the last-minute series of votes on Coda. Or they didn't have time to switch the target.

I'm not a fan of Twibanu's or Sart's back and forth voting pattern, but I've been there more than once as a villager. I also hesitate to call any of those who voted on Coda at the last minute suspicious, simply because that was the kill target. I'd suspect if one had been an elim, they'd have tried to push for another lynch, to get more village deaths.

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, first, I’d like to say sorry Coda. I wasn’t completely sure you were an elim, but I felt like there was more to go on with you than with someone I felt would’ve been more cautious if they were an elim. 

Second, I think if I’m reading the results right, we know that whoever submitted the kill was not around for rollover. Which means that it can’t be one of Twibanu, Stick (I saw her recently viewing the thread at the end there), Sart, I think Joe was on at one point after the lynch had flipped to Coda, and myself. I can’t remember if I’m forgetting anyone. Anyway, just because none of us could’ve submitted the kill doesn’t mean that none of us are elims. I’d bet at least one of us is an elim. 

Third, I’m kind of annoyed that apparently two different people stole from me. So not only did I lose the item I already had, I lost the one I stole from someone else too! 

Edited December 22, 2019 by StrikerEZ
I added an exclamation point at the end of my last paragraph to properly demonstrate how upset I am. :P

[Furamirionind]

Ok, so I don't have much time right now, but I'll try to do this really quick as it has to be done now before more people get online (thx CadCom : P  )

The turning point on the Coda lynch was probably Devotary's vote... About 2 hours ago, but it's more like 2.5 now, I think.

Last online:

Spoiler

Kynedath - 52 minutes
CadCom -- 13 Minutes
Joe --------- 38 minutes
Striker ----- 1 hour
Elandera ---4 minutes
Venture ---- 1 hour
Kidpen - over 24 hours
Stick - 1 hour
DeTess - 1 hour
Elkanah - 7 hours 
Devotary - 20 minutes
Lemelon - 1 hour
Sart - 1 hour

This singles out Kidpen, Elkanah, and CadCom (as he basically admitted he should be singled out, thx!)
Out of these people, Kidpen was last online before most elim teams would have sent the order in. Most of the time, they wait some time to get the feel of the players... That actually puts Elkanah kind of in the exact place where they were online late enough to reasonably place the order, yet early enough not to see the switch to Coda. People who have been around SE for a long time have a tendency to attack lower active players D1/2 as well, and Elkanah's first game was LG15...

However, I don't know exactly how this thing works... So I wouldn't trust it too much. And meta analysis is fun... but just as often inaccurate as accurate.

10 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I'm not a fan of Twibanu's or Sart's back and forth voting pattern, but I've been there more than once as a villager.

Well, I personally think my vote jumping was 100% justified. Sart's is interesting. Probably NAI though.

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Second, I think if I’m reading the results right, we know that whoever submitted the kill was not around for rollover. Which means that it can’t be one of Twibanu, Stick (I saw her recently viewing the thread at the end there), Sart, I think Joe was on at one point after the lynch had flipped to Coda, and myself. I can’t remember if I’m forgetting anyone. Anyway, just because none of us could’ve submitted the kill doesn’t mean that none of us are elims. I’d bet at least one of us is an elim. 

Very true. However, if Sart isn't an elim, then Devotary, Striker, and myself are also probably villagers, as we would have more insentive to vote for Sart (the not kill target), over Coda. Even Stick would probably be a villager as she was online near rollover, and could have switched her vote (though I'm less confident about her, I think).

I have more to say, but I'm out of time.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Hey, if you robbed strikerEZ, could you PM me? I'm trying to confirm what happened overnight. I was apparently a third player to rob him, and got nothing from it. I won't reveal identities of you are willing to pm me about this matter.

@BrightnessRadiant in what order do robberies happen? Is it first in first resolved?

[BrightnessRadiant]

1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Hey, if you robbed strikerEZ, could you PM me? I'm trying to confirm what happened overnight. I was apparently a third player to rob him, and got nothing from it. I won't reveal identities of you are willing to pm me about this matter.

@BrightnessRadiant in what order do robberies happen? Is it first in first resolved?

They happen in the order they were submitted. If a player has an item and is robbed and then another player robs them they will get nothing. If a player is robbed but then steals an item they will now have an item and can be robbed from after that timeline. I keep a log of where they are going throughout the entire cycle.

[Lemonelon]

Someone stole from me last cycle. I'm happy to share if you want to reach out.

[DeTess]

okay, I've taken another look over the end of D1. If Sart is village, Devotary and Striker are probably village. If Sart is not, then the jury is still very much out on these two, as losing a kill is better than losing an elim. I also don't think that Twibanu is cleared by their vote, as at that point it would have looked more suspicious if he hadn't switched his vote, as that would have suggested a knowledge about how things would turn out anyway.

The kill on coda is also interesting for other reasons. Coda wasn't too involved in the discussion C1, and there wasn't too much of an indication that they'd get significantly more involved later, so killing them was definitely a low-information kill. There are generally two philosophies among elim teams with regards to kills. One is about killing low activity players to deny the village information, and the other is about killing threats, which in C1 are generally the high activity players with scary reputations. The first philosophy is more often followed by reasonably experienced elim teams*, while the second is often followed by less experienced teams.

Because of this, I am fairly certain the elim team consists of Cadcom, Twibanu and Elandera.

 

 

 

 

Okay, yeah, I  pretty much just made that up (cadcom), but I don't think that team is impossible, so i had to include it on the off chance it was right or mostly right, just to give the elims a bit of a surprise and shock.                                    

Anyway, on a more serious note, I'm going to put in a vote against Sart again. I learned last game that its very dangerous to base analysis on someone's presumed alignment, so I'd prefer to get Sart's slot resolved as soon as possible so I know how to regard Devotary and Striker.

 

*This is a bit of a simplification, as some experienced teams would actually avoid killing newer players that are still somewhat active to give them a chance to play more, but I think this generally holds.

Edited December 22, 2019 by DeTess

[Stick.]

3 hours ago, DeTess said:

There are generally two philosophies among elim teams with regards to kills. One is about killing low activity players to deny the village information, and the other is about killing threats, which in C1 are generally the high activity players with scary reputations. The second philosophy is more often followed by reasonably experienced elim teams*, while the former is often followed by less experienced teams.

Did you mean to say that the other way around?

Also this whole thing going on isn't sitting well with me and I'm not buying it lol. Why would the elim team assign the kill to a player who they knew won't be online near rollover? I'm sure they wouldve discussed timezones and availability and all that. Plus, as DeTess pointed out last cycle, it doesn't matter to the elims whether there's a C1 lynch. This wouldve been a good course of action for the elims to take C1 so as to direct all suspicion on people who weren't online at rollover. Idk but the fact that the elims chose to NK the very player we ended up lynching is too convenient of a coincidence.

But assuming that this wasn't intentional on the elim's part, I'd say Elkanah is probably an elim, going off by Tinu's analysis of when all of us were last online.

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Did you mean to say that the other way around?

...Yes, I did. Let me fix that.

Quote

Also this whole thing going on isn't sitting well with me and I'm not buying it lol. Why would the elim team assign the kill to a player who they knew won't be online near rollover? I'm sure they wouldve discussed timezones and availability and all that. Plus, as DeTess pointed out last cycle, it doesn't matter to the elims whether there's a C1 lynch. This wouldve been a good course of action for the elims to take C1 so as to direct all suspicion on people who weren't online at rollover. Idk but the fact that the elims chose to NK the very player we ended up lynching is too convenient of a coincidence.

There could be a couple of reasons why they would assign it to someone not around near rollover. The most obvious is if someone in their team appeared to be more trusted than the rest, to reduce the risk of the killer getting knifed. However, they could also have settled on Coda a couple of hours before rollover, not expecting the big lynch swing, and then getting caught out by them not being able to overrule the earlier kill as they hadn't bothered asking.

Edited December 22, 2019 by DeTess

[A Joe in the Bush]

Seems more likely they weren't aware that the first order would have precedence. I think they probably tried to change it later, but were told that the first person had to retract their order first.

[A Joe in the Bush]

@Kidpen, @Elkanah, @CadCom, can you three tell us what actions you took? At this point i'm guessing almost everyone robbed someone. I want to see if we can trace items well enough to confirm alibis. 4 people are claiming to have robbed StrikerEZ last night.

[Elkanah]

Hey guys. Wow, a lot happened there. So if I understand what happened, there were three of us who weren't on near rollover and so it's likely a kill was called in on Coda before they were leading in the lynch. I'm still not sure why Coda was the lynch target or the elim target. He felt to me like he was playing the same as every other game. All I can think of is something he may have claimed in a PM. I didn't have a PM with them, but it's possible he claimed to an elim to have a vest. That makes more sense to me than an elim losing the kill by not being online at rollover. Even so, it probably would have been wiser for them to wait and see if Coda actually had a vest or not. Did anyone have a PM wherein Coda claimed to have any items?

As for me I had some unexpected family come and stay the night and I'm really disappointed I missed out on my second point. Because I hadn't planned for them I submitted no actions and failed to post before the cycle ended. Ninja'd by A Joe in the Bush. 

13 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

@Kidpen, @Elkanah, @CadCom, can you three tell us what actions you took? At this point i'm guessing almost everyone robbed someone. I want to see if we can trace items well enough to confirm alibis. 4 people are claiming to have robbed StrikerEZ last night.

I'm afraid without an action, I have no alibi other than to say I'm not sure I buy that it's one of the three of us. 

[BrightnessRadiant]

20 hours ago, DeTess said:

Interesting. Probably the best ruling, as quite a few of the other possibilities could have sunk the elim team on the results of C1 alone XD

Apologies, I misspoke when I clarified before. The elim kill will take the first order unless changed by another elim in GM PM. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, DeTess said:

There could be a couple of reasons why they would assign it to someone not around near rollover. The most obvious is if someone in their team appeared to be more trusted than the rest, to reduce the risk of the killer getting knifed. However, they could also have settled on Coda a couple of hours before rollover, not expecting the big lynch swing, and then getting caught out by them not being able to overrule the earlier kill as they hadn't bothered asking.

It's also possible that the other elims had an item actions they wanted to take. Stealing is less likely, as it doesn't matter too much who takes an item but matters more that the killer is around to see the lynch results. Since it appears now that kill orders can be overridden by another elim, which I believe is standard protocol, they should have been able to prioritise a kill over any other action though.

[DeTess]

25 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Apologies, I misspoke when I clarified before. The elim kill will take the first order unless changed by another elim in GM PM. 

This changes things. I'm too tired to figure it out right now, but I think this should allow for a serious reduction of the suspect pool.

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Apologies, I misspoke when I clarified before. The elim kill will take the first order unless changed by another elim in GM PM. 

... I'm busy right now... but that... I feel like we might be able to solve the game on that? Seems pretty big.

[StrikerEZ]

50 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

... I'm busy right now... but that... I feel like we might be able to solve the game on that? Seems pretty big.

It does feel pretty big. I know we can probably figure it out based on that information, but I don’t know how to piece everything we know together.

[Stick.]

It’s not really that big though is it. If the latest kill order takes precedence then none of the elims attempted to change the kill order once it was placed on Coda. If we assume that the whole elim team was not online when and after the lynch on Coda got going for real, then we’re left with the team being CadCom, Kidpen, and Elkanah. However I have problems with that team cuz I believe I know (through some trusted sources) that one of them possessed an item last cycle that I wouldn’t really expect an elim to have...I know GMs can sometimes be troll-y with item distribution and that kinda thing but still...

I just, still struggle to understand why the elims would decide to NK Coda of all people. I’m beginning to wonder if there’s some kinda secret item that redirects actions. That would explain everything.   Would also out an elim right about now. Pretty nifty.

[Kynedath]

Absodel huh? Remy had barely even known that he was working for the doctor, he mostly kept to himself. The death was disturbing though, things were heating up with this job and Remy wasn't sure he wanted any part of it. Unfortunately for him this job was all that kept him afloat in Newcago, so he was invested enough to try to help figure out who was doing the killing. Well, besides the maniacs he worked with who . . . didn't get there in time? What kind of funky murder mystery was this?

Maps take time to create, and Remy needed the time to make the mental map of suspicious behaviour. The more bodies that piled up the more places cluttered that mental map. Clark Narrow, Character pending Jr. (wow, someone really named their kid something like that? I guess if it's a family name then it's better), and . . . some man with a moustache were all missing, had no alibi. Then again there are far more than just three possibilities. There were thirteen.

 

Regardless of whether or not that is the whole elim team, I think that at least one of them is an elim. Out of those three i think that CadCom is the most suspicious. I have had my suspicions since last cycle. They were analyzing information about the game but not doing much with the information afterwards. They didn't accuse anyone, they didn't defend anyone, and that seems to me like they're trying very hard to stay neutral in order to avoid suspicion. Not to mention the whole thing about the kill going onto Coda meaning that the elim that killed them wasn't on later in the cycle.

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

Regardless of whether or not that is the whole elim team, I think that at least one of them is an elim. Out of those three i think that CadCom is the most suspicious. I have had my suspicions since last cycle. They were analyzing information about the game but not doing much with the information afterwards. They didn't accuse anyone, they didn't defend anyone, and that seems to me like they're trying very hard to stay neutral in order to avoid suspicion. Not to mention the whole thing about the kill going onto Coda meaning that the elim that killed them wasn't on later in the cycle.

In his defense, he told me relatively early on in the cycle that he would be attempting to steal from someone. Obviously, that could’ve been just to provide himself an alibi while he submitted the kill, but I’m willing to trust him until he can get on and say whether or not he did steal from someone. @CadCom

[Kynedath]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

In his defense, he told me relatively early on in the cycle that he would be attempting to steal from someone. Obviously, that could’ve been just to provide himself an alibi while he submitted the kill, but I’m willing to trust him until he can get on and say whether or not he did steal from someone. @CadCom

Regardless of whether or not they claim to have stolen last cycle, there is no way to prove or disprove it, so that testimony won't do any real good.

Although I should have tagged @CadCom in my post as well, I apologize.

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, Kynedath said:

Regardless of whether or not they claim to have stolen last cycle, there is no way to prove or disprove it, so that testimony won't do any real good.

Although I should have tagged @CadCom in my post as well, I apologize.

Well, it could help if we know who he claims to have stolen from. And that other player should be able to confirm his alibi. The only problem with that I can think of is if he just claims to have stolen from an elim teammate. 

[Kynedath]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Well, it could help if we know who he claims to have stolen from. And that other player should be able to confirm his alibi. The only problem with that I can think of is if he just claims to have stolen from an elim teammate. 

Exactly. Or another teammate could have stolen something and @CadCom could say they stole from that person. Or CadCom could say they stole from someone with no items, or someone who had multiple people steal from them, all of which would be plausible excuses. But the only real way to know if CadCom was the killer is if someone used binoculars on them.

Unfortunately, it is unlikely that binoculars were used on them since I stole a pair of binoculars that were promptly stolen from me immediately afterwards. If there is another pair of binoculars out there there is a 1/13 chance that they were trained on CadCom. So it seems confirmation of my accusation or CadComs Defense will most likely be non-existent. That leaves my read of their posts.

[StrikerEZ]

On 12/22/2019 at 5:17 PM, Kynedath said:

Exactly. Or another teammate could have stolen something and @CadCom could say they stole from that person. Or CadCom could say they stole from someone with no items, or someone who had multiple people steal from them, all of which would be plausible excuses. But the only real way to know if CadCom was the killer is if someone used binoculars on them.

Unfortunately, it is unlikely that binoculars were used on them since I stole a pair of binoculars that were promptly stolen from me immediately afterwards. If there is another pair of binoculars out there there is a 1/13 chance that they were trained on CadCom. So it seems confirmation of my accusation or CadComs Defense will most likely be non-existent. That leaves my read of their posts.

Yeah...that’s fair. I don’t think CadCom’s posts are as suspicious as yours, but I don’t think Elkanah’s or Kidpen’s are very suspicious either. So CadCom is as good of a choice as any of them. Plus, we have no solid alibi for him not submitting the kill. I don’t think I’ll put a vote on him yet. I wanna have time to think about it, reread the thread yesterday, and give CadCom and others time to respond to this first.

Edited December 26, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[CadCom]

I can prove that I did steal something last cycle. I told Elandera early on this cycle that I stole from Lemonelon. Before they claimed in three they had been stolen from.

I can prove what I stole too that lemon can confirm is correct.