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Hey all, been stopping and starting some RP but keep getting distracted so that will come later!!

I'm really excited what happens with the items. Does anyone have more than one item?

29 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

Striker's posts in-thread I found off-putting, and I would probably be casting my vote on him had he not PMed me. In our PM, he sounded pretty pure, though It's only C1. 

Isn't it customary to vote @StrikerEZ C1?

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4 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, I feel like I tend to write posts that sound like I’m unsure most of the time, regardless of alignment. Mostly because I tend to overthink things and don’t like saying anything as if I’m absolutely sure of it in case I might be wrong. 

Fair. 

36 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

I always like seeing people analyzing potential game length and scenarios, and CadCom does good analysis. CadCom's head feels like it is in the right place.

IMO all that’s almost always non alignment indicative. Not meaning to discourage anybody from posting, but such analyses are perfect for the elims to blend in by seeming helpful while rarely providing any of their own insight. 

 

7 minutes ago, Lemonelon said:

Does anyone have more than one item?

I doubt anybody stated with more than one, but you can certainly hold up to how many items as you can get. 

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3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

IMO all that’s almost always non alignment indicative. Not meaning to discourage anybody from posting, but such analyses are perfect for the elims to blend in by seeming helpful while rarely providing any of their own insight. 

I disagree. True, the analysis itself can be a great cover, that's true. I've done that a few times myself, try to look useful by analyzing stats and probability. But you can almost always find indicators one way or another, mostly in the way they present their findings, the conclusions they draw from those stats, and how they present their view of the game with that new information. There is a real possibility that CadCom is trying to hide in their analysis, but instead of dissecting the analysis itself, it would be more useful to look at their presentation of said analysis.

CadCom only really said that the game could be swingy by the end, which is true and has no real connection with strategies or suspicions. The only other thing they really said was, from what I see, in an effort to get inactives playing and get those who are active voting. It doesn't scream village, but it doesn't scream elim. Which almost seems like an eliminator playing it safe? Very slight elim read on CadCom for me I think.

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2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

what result is received when viewing a smoke bomb with binoculars? If it shows no action, it should be easy to tell whether a smoke bomb was used because everybody has the ability to take actions every cycle.

No action taken.

 

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

Are you certain about that? @BrightnessRadiant

Yes, knives can block other knives. The earliest orders will take priority.

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Absodel sat in the corner, not really contributing anything to the conversation. He was a practitioner of medicine, not a detective. Studying Epic biology was very informative, and the traitors threatened his internship. Sadly, he was not good at analyzing people or determining ill intent. He would probably die very early on to the filthy traitors. He sighed and listened to the chatter. The black market prices had changed and there was some talk of following tradition and lynching Striker Already Suspicious, of the already Suspicious clan. Lynching that clan seemed to be very common in the multiverse. 

Absodel sighed and tossed a scalpel over and over. He was obviously terrible at finding traitors. No one seemed suspicious in the slightest, except maybe Lemon for suggesting killing Striker for no reason. This was so hard. He walked out of the room with disappointment weighing down his heart. He wished he was better at reading people's minds. He wouldn't be able to return to the discussion for a while, so he hoped nothing incredibly important happened while he was gone. He regretted his absence, but his aunt from the state of California was visiting, and they were going to watch a movie about a walker of skies rising amidst a war of stars. He bid his fellow assistants farewell and left for home. His aunt was waiting.

 

Just getting in my 150 words of RP. Like I have previously stated, I have no suspicions, sadly. Going to see Rise of Skywalker!

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I'm not going to put in a vote yet, as I want to take the time to do another proper re-read sometime tomorrow. However, I've seen several people note suspicion of StrikerEZ, and there's something I quickly want to note on that, and that is that I'm very opposed to lynching him C1. People (and that includes me) always find reason to find him suspicious C1, so that's actually completely NAI. Given his record on getting lynched incredibly early (C1 lynches on almost every game in the last couple of months, at the very least those I played) it's going to take him literally admitting to being an elim for me to lynch him C1, and if a lynch against him does start taking off I'll definitely be pushing whatever alternative I can find.

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2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

IMO all that’s almost always non alignment indicative. Not meaning to discourage anybody from posting, but such analyses are perfect for the elims to blend in by seeming helpful while rarely providing any of their own insight. 

Sure, but it doesn't take much to convince me not to vote on you D1... : P

2 hours ago, Kynedath said:

I disagree. True, the analysis itself can be a great cover, that's true. I've done that a few times myself, try to look useful by analyzing stats and probability. But you can almost always find indicators one way or another, mostly in the way they present their findings, the conclusions they draw from those stats, and how they present their view of the game with that new information. There is a real possibility that CadCom is trying to hide in their analysis, but instead of dissecting the analysis itself, it would be more useful to look at their presentation of said analysis.

CadCom only really said that the game could be swingy by the end, which is true and has no real connection with strategies or suspicions. The only other thing they really said was, from what I see, in an effort to get inactives playing and get those who are active voting. It doesn't scream village, but it doesn't scream elim. Which almost seems like an eliminator playing it safe? Very slight elim read on CadCom for me I think.

Well, I don't think you are disagreeing as much as you imply from the words "I disagree" : P
However, I think there are different ways of reading the post. I read it as a preliminary analysis post, with initial thoughts on the game after the game started. I tend to make half thought out or rushed posts at the beginning of games, so I kind of give people leave for that.  CadCom typically also does quite a bit of analysis in general, so I am kind of expecting him to go into more detail soon.

I'd rather not kill him before he has the chance to do that.

29 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I'm not going to put in a vote yet, as I want to take the time to do another proper re-read sometime tomorrow. However, I've seen several people note suspicion of StrikerEZ, and there's something I quickly want to note on that, and that is that I'm very opposed to lynching him C1. People (and that includes me) always find reason to find him suspicious C1, so that's actually completely NAI. Given his record on getting lynched incredibly early (C1 lynches on almost every game in the last couple of months, at the very least those I played) it's going to take him literally admitting to being an elim for me to lynch him C1, and if a lynch against him does start taking off I'll definitely be pushing whatever alternative I can find.

Good points.


Alright, I never like C1 lynches as I always feel bad for whoever is lynched. However, I think I have procrastinated enough on putting down a vote. I have my list of people I will not vote for, so I'm going to vote for @Butt Ad Venture (whose name is no longer an Ookla?).  Venture's single post this game seemed far too laid back in my opinion. kind of like he wasn't concerned about the items or elims at all.

Venture

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The black market was full of whispers. In public, everyone was carrying on business as usual. One lone voice was calling for Charley's head, but that was the exception. Everyone didn't want to say what they were thinking. No one wanted to acknowledge the traitors among them. In private though? The whispers grew ever louder, each dealer getting more and more paranoid. This place was a powder keg, and it was only a matter of time before it blew. Even now, many people were discussing the best way to defend themselves. Perhaps a gun would be the ultimate weapon in the fight, but those were rare, and a knife seemed just as a good. Some would possibly hold out for protection, but a good offense would be a better defense. The traitors couldn't kill you if you killed them.

I ignored the whispers. Back alley threats were never my strong suit anyway. Me? I prefer the direct approach. Waiting around too long, pretending that nothing was wrong would only lead to more hardship, more pain, and more suffering. Better to get it off your chest now, then wait later. Twibanu is calling for Charley's head, so let's get Charley's (Butt Ad Venture) head. Unless anyone objects, there's no point in waiting. I'll kill now, and I'll kill often, until I'm king of the bodies. That's a promise. So come on. Abandon your dark dens, and your webs of secrecy. It's past time to begin. This is a powder keg, and I'll gladly light the fuse.

Edited by Sart
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...m’kay. So. A C1 lynch on me. Laid back? I suppose that makes sense? Okay. So, day one analysis?

I currently have no suspicions. Everyone is acting like a normal villager. Only thing I find suspicious is that Twi says that she’s contrary to C1 lynches, then votes on me. But...ok. I’m sure there’s a reason. ...oh wait, there was one! I’m laid back. :huh:

Item-wise? Smokebomb use seems mostly good for the elims. It’s good for the village that it’s only for one use. Strongboxes...are useful. But I don’t think anyone would start with one, wouldn’t be of much use, agreed?

...and now Sart’s voting on me. Wow. I’m afraid I don’t know what to say.

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2 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

...m’kay. So. A C1 lynch on me. Laid back? I suppose that makes sense? Okay. So, day one analysis?

I currently have no suspicions. Everyone is acting like a normal villager. Only thing I find suspicious is that Twi says that she’s contrary to C1 lynches, then votes on me. But...ok. I’m sure there’s a reason. ...oh wait, there was one! I’m laid back. :huh:

Item-wise? Smokebomb use seems mostly good for the elims. It’s good for the village that it’s only for one use. Strongboxes...are useful. But I don’t think anyone would start with one, wouldn’t be of much use, agreed?

...and now Sart’s voting on me. Wow. I’m afraid I don’t know what to say.

Being laid back isn't inherently a bad thing. However... It was more that I think your post made it seem to me that you weren't concerned at all. Does that make sense? Elims aren't too scared of the lynch (especially early) as they have teammates to get them out of it, they aren't scared of being killed, as there are few ways for them to die at night, and it is statistically unlikely.
Basically, I think I saw that mentality in your post...
But

14 minutes ago, Sart said:

The black market was full of whispers. In public, everyone was carrying on business as usual. One lone voice was calling for Charley's head, but that was the exception. Everyone didn't want to say what they were thinking. No one wanted to acknowledge the traitors among them. In private though? The whispers grew ever louder, each dealer getting more and more paranoid. This place was a powder keg, and it was only a matter of time before it blew. Even now, many people were discussing the best way to defend themselves. Perhaps a gun would be the ultimate weapon in the fight, but those were rare, and a knife seemed just as a good. Some would possibly hold out for protection, but a good offense would be a better defense. The traitors couldn't kill you if you killed them.

I ignored the whispers. Back alley threats were never my strong suit anyway. Me? I prefer the direct approach. Waiting around too long, pretending that nothing was wrong would only lead to more hardship, more pain, and more suffering. Better to get it off your chest now, then wait later. Twibanu is calling for Charley's head, so let's get Charley's (Butt Ad Venture) head. Unless anyone objects, there's no point in waiting. I'll kill now, and I'll kill often, until I'm king of the bodies. That's a promise. So come on. Abandon your dark dens, and your webs of secrecy. It's past time to begin. This is a powder keg, and I'll gladly light the fuse.

Why are you sheeping me?

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14 hours ago, Lemonelon said:

I'm really excited what happens with the items. Does anyone have more than one item?

Just out of curiosity, why do you ask? And do you honestly expect someone to answer truthfully?

Anyway, on to the lynching business. I don't particularly feel the butt ad venture lynch. His one post doesn't feel particularly elimmy to me, and his point on the gun not being that important was an important thing to note imho. I could definitely see elims doing the opposite, trying to get one or more villagers to save up points to buy an item that they might not even get to use, instead of going for something cheaper and more useful.

Regarding other suspicions, two people (not counting striker :ph34r:) stood out. First was Lemonelon, for the odd question I quoted above, and the other is Sart, for his vote on Venture. It seems like Sart's just going along with the lynch started by Twibanu, and he is known for a general philosophy of pushing lynches early and often to promote discussion. However, in an uncertain D1 like this, his vote is more likely to achieve the opposite and lock in a D1 lynch without too much further discussion.

I think I'm going to vote Sart for now, but I'll be watching how the rest of the day develops and could very well still change that vote.

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Not feeling the Sart lynch, DeTess, ngl. Sheeping like that would be suspicious under normal circumstances but I don't really see an elim doing that C1. Cycle 1 is where you can almost always get away with voting on anyone with minimal reasoning - so elims usually tend to just stick a vote anywhere that isnt on one of their own. So why would elim!Sart choose to vote Venture immediately after Tinu when he could literally start any other lynch without attracting attention? Surely waiting for the lynch to form at least a bit would be less incriminating. I actually think Lemon's village too, for PM reasons. I'm beginning to suspect you just a little bit only because your reads are super conflicting to mine :P 

Irrelevant thought but Kidpen seems pretty village to me as well, partly because of this post. And partly because of my gut. Elkanah seems pretty okay too.

Lol, here I thought I was onto something what with soft clearing so many people only to go to the player list for some PoE and realise I don't nearly have enough info on everybody for that yet.

I'm a bit wary of Elandera because she's posted about three times I think (?) but notably has not given much substantial opinions. That isn't very suspicious at C1, but worth noting.

I'm more concerned about Coda. I know they're a relatively new player but yet their posts sound very odd to me. This bit in particular:

Quote

Sorry for not posting for a while. I have no suspicions. All the things I thought of have already been said. Guess I won't be getting any points this round. 

After which they post RP, gaining points. I don't know, there's nothing really wrong with that but it feels off.

EDIT: forgot to talk about Venture. I have a tentative village read on them - I would expect an elim to defend themself a bit more than that, especially when there's two votes on them with no alternate lynch.

 

Edited by _Stick_
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18 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Not feeling the Sart lynch, DeTess, ngl. Sheeping like that would be suspicious under normal circumstances but I don't really see an elim doing that C1. Cycle 1 is where you can almost always get away with voting on anyone with minimal reasoning - so elims usually tend to just stick a vote anywhere that isnt on one of their own. So why would elim!Sart choose to vote Venture immediately after Tinu when he could literally start any other lynch without attracting attention? Surely waiting for the lynch to form at least a bit would be less incriminating. I actually think Lemon's village too, for PM reasons. I'm beginning to suspect you just a little bit only because your reads are super conflicting to mine :P 

There are a couple of reasons for elim!Sart to join that lynch. Ending C1 with a fairly low impact and 'easy' lynch keeps the general information available to analyze down. It could also be that he was worried that one of his compatriots had some risk of being lynched C1, and so he decided to push the first reasonable alternative instead.

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@_Stick_ I would have to read through Codas posts from other games to be sure, but I'm pretty sure they say stuff like that pretty often. Also, I hardly think the discrepancy between actual points gained and amount they say, is AI. If they were an elim, and they made that mistake, it is almost certainly a mistake as we can see for ourselves that it's not the case. Same for a villager.

Also, I think your statements also support the Sart lynch.

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Not feeling the Sart lynch, DeTess, ngl. Sheeping like that would be suspicious under normal circumstances but I don't really see an elim doing that C1. Cycle 1 is where you can almost always get away with voting on anyone with minimal reasoning - so elims usually tend to just stick a vote anywhere that isnt on one of their own. So why would elim!Sart choose to vote Venture immediately after Tinu when he could literally start any other lynch without attracting attention? Surely waiting for the lynch to form at least a bit would be less incriminating.

The thing is, we were halfway to rollover with no votes. So clearly elims werent just sticking their votes "anywhere". You also said that elims can get away with putting their votes anywhere, meaning conflicting with your following statement that due to this, they would create their own lynch.

Also, is your argument against the part lynch that he wouldnt vote on one of his own, so he wouldnt vote on Venture?

Which is implying both that Venture and you are elims (with or without Sart).

Also, ignoring that part, if elim!Sart voted for someone else, then the lynch would still be open for adding new people into the conversation. If there is a clear vote leader, people will often stop trying to lynch other people. If Sart has a teammate in the conversation that isnt Venture, it is in his best interests to vote on the only person with a vote.

Edited by Twibanu
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16 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

The thing is, we were halfway to rollover with no votes. So clearly elims werent just sticking their votes "anywhere". You also said that elims can get away with putting their votes anywhere, meaning conflicting with your following statement that due to this, they would create their own lynch.

What I mean is that out of all the possible ways to use their votes, I don’t expect the elims to immediately sheep the first vote casted in such a blatant manner, yknow? That (evidently) attracts attention. 

19 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

Also, is your argument against the part lynch that he wouldnt vote on one of his own, so he wouldnt vote on Venture?

Which is implying both that Venture and you are elims (with or without Sart).

I’m not clear on what you’re asking here :P But um I don’t think at the moment that either of them are elims. 

23 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

Also, ignoring that part, if elim!Sart voted for someone else, then the lynch would still be open for adding new people into the conversation. If there is a clear vote leader, people will often stop trying to lynch other people. If Sart has a teammate in the conversation that isnt Venture, it is in his best interests to vote on the only person with a vote.

Assuming elim!sart has a teammate who could be a possible lynch target - From the top of my head, the only other person anybody expressed suspicion of before you voted Venture was Striker, and there were no signs of a lynch forming on him because of his tendency to get lynched early, so I don’t see why elim!sart would feel obligated to place his vote on Venture. 
im beginning to feel unsure of my vote on Coda, but I guess it was sort of baseless to begin with. (Mostly they just felt off) 

I might take it off depending on whether there’s anybody else proves to be more worthy of the vote 

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Im against D1 lynching, I have been for the last however many games I've played, but this is a good discussion we have going here, I like it.

If I were an elim, then on D1 I would be trying to get a solid lynch on a non-eliminator. In that respect Sart seems suspicious, but I think that suspicion is mitigated for me because of their apparent track record of encouraging discussion with sketchy means. And nothing else really screams elim to me.

Butt being laid back doesn't strike me as an indicator for being an elim, and that's most of what I think about them. Not much else has happened in that corner of the ring.

Who I am suspicious of is Twibanu. They were the ones that actually started the voting which goes back to elims trying to get a solid lynch going on someone other than them. A long time into the cycle with not very many votes would get an eliminator worried that the village wouldn't kill anyone which would keep more people in the game which isn't really what they want. In addition, I don't understand their logic here:

1 hour ago, Twibanu said:

@_Stick_ I would have to read through Codas posts from other games to be sure, but I'm pretty sure they say stuff like that pretty often. Also, I hardly think the discrepancy between actual points gained and amount they say, is AI. If they were an elim, and they made that mistake, it is almost certainly a mistake as we can see for ourselves that it's not the case. Same for a villager.

Also, I think your statements also support the Sart lynch.

The thing is, we were halfway to rollover with no votes. So clearly elims werent just sticking their votes "anywhere". You also said that elims can get away with putting their votes anywhere, meaning conflicting with your following statement that due to this, they would create their own lynch.

Also, is your argument against the part lynch that he wouldnt vote on one of his own, so he wouldnt vote on Venture?

Which is implying both that Venture and you are elims (with or without Sart).

Also, ignoring that part, if elim!Sart voted for someone else, then the lynch would still be open for adding new people into the conversation. If there is a clear vote leader, people will often stop trying to lynch other people. If Sart has a teammate in the conversation that isnt Venture, it is in his best interests to vote on the only person with a vote.

I just don't really know what they're trying to say, and that makes me think they're trying to defend themselves or Sart with village logic after they did something with elim logic. Villagers act with villager behavior, so it's easy to justify your point logically. But it's harder to justify elim behavior with village logic and that's what Twibanu looks like they're doing to me.

Stick is working with . . . Odd logic, but it makes sense and doesn't read elim to me.

DeTess seems like a villager working with village logic and village motives. I don't think Lemonelon is as suspicious as they think though, it seems to me like a throwaway question asked out of curiosity and not politics.

So in conclusion my biggest suspicion lies with Twibanu right now. I don't like to participate in D1 lunches since I don't like contributing to getting someone killed before they can really play the game. But I'm going to be keeping an eye on them from now on I think.

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56 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

Who I am suspicious of is Twibanu. They were the ones that actually started the voting which goes back to elims trying to get a solid lynch going on someone other than them. A long time into the cycle with not very many votes would get an eliminator worried that the village wouldn't kill anyone which would keep more people in the game which isn't really what they want. In addition, I don't understand their logic here:

I just don't really know what they're trying to say, and that makes me think they're trying to defend themselves or Sart with village logic after they did something with elim logic. Villagers act with villager behavior, so it's easy to justify your point logically. But it's harder to justify elim behavior with village logic and that's what Twibanu looks like they're doing to me.

. . .

So in conclusion my biggest suspicion lies with Twibanu right now. I don't like to participate in D1 lunches since I don't like contributing to getting someone killed before they can really play the game. But I'm going to be keeping an eye on them from now on I think.

I think your suspicion on me is primarily due to my vote on Venture. Really quickly on that, I have played in two games where there was a no-lynch D1, and in those games it still felt like whoever we lynched D2 wasn't going to be able to play the game, so really imo, the question then becomes do we kill someone early so 2 players don't play all that much (C1 lynch and C1 elim Kill), or wait until C2 so that 3 players don't play much (C1&2 kill and C2 lynch).

Also, I felt like we were running out of meaningful things to discuss on C1, and votes are definitely something meaningful no one had done yet. 

I'm not quite sure where you are getting I'm trying to defend Sart. I thought it was pretty clear I didn't like his vote sheeping mine. I was also pretty suspicious of Stick until I just read her response to my post, which I think is pretty villager-y... Wouldn't mind hearing something from @Sart though. It has been 13 hours since he has been online, but he should have had time to see my post questioning his vote though.

I'll move my vote to Sart for the moment, and there are a couple players who should be able to confirm this is not coming out of thin air from me as well... If that means anything : )

Venture
Sart

Edit: Would someone mind doing a vote count? I'm pretty sure Sart is now in the lead with 2 votes... Venture should have one, and apparently Coda has 1?

Edited by Twibanu
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18 minutes ago, Twibanu said:

I think your suspicion on me is primarily due to my vote on Venture. Really quickly on that, I have played in two games where there was a no-lynch D1, and in those games it still felt like whoever we lynched D2 wasn't going to be able to play the game, so really imo, the question then becomes do we kill someone early so 2 players don't play all that much (C1 lynch and C1 elim Kill), or wait until C2 so that 3 players don't play much (C1&2 kill and C2 lynch). 

I'm not quite sure where you are getting I'm trying to defend Sart. I thought it was pretty clear I didn't like his vote sheeping mine.

The thing is, I recognize that D1 lynching probably should happen. You're right, if it doesn't happen then D2 becomes the same kind of D1 lunch. In addition it provides valuable information that the village can use to weed out eliminators. I just feel awful whenever I vote for someone on D1. I don't do it on principle because I know it's probably going to happen anyways and the information will still be out there even if I don't contribute my vote that cycle.

The defending Sart part is weird, I see that now. I don't know why I was thinking that, there was no reason to think you were defending them. My bad.

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Sart (2): Tess, Twi   
Venture (1): Sart     
Coda (1): Stick

So thank you. I’m going to be on later for rollover in case any other information comes up, but it’s time to watch Star Wars. However, for now I would like to agree that Sart is suspicious.

Edited by Butt Ad Venture
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4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I'm a bit wary of Elandera because she's posted about three times I think (?) but notably has not given much substantial opinions. That isn't very suspicious at C1, but worth noting.

Sorry about that. I've posted twice (three times, including this post) prior to much lunch discussion. At that time, fewer than half the players had posted, and it was still just mechanic discussions. Nothing at that time seemed suspicious enough to note. Since then, I've been slammed. I have family in town and more on the way, and still have work. And work last night was brutal. Enough with the excuses, though. On to semi-substantial opinions (don't have time for more than a skimmed read).

I don't like the lynches on any of the three currently with votes. Sart's sheep vote was most off, but I agree it was likely to draw too much attention for an elim move D1. In my time, I've seen more elims sit out D1 than sheep D1. 

Coda doesn't stick out as having done anything suspicious to me, so I'm not sure where that lynch is even coming from. 

And Venture seemed more like an effort to start lynch discussions, and not a real effort to lunch him. Like Coda, I don't see anything actually suspicious.

I'm out of time. I'll try to add more thoughts later, and hopefully a vote.

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