318 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, I must be forgetting something important because I’m not quite sure where this Devotary lynch is coming from. Maybe I should do that reread of the thread like I said I would. :P

I'm pretty sure it's because I voted early for Coda C1 which helped lead to Sart not getting lynched, and because I don't have a verifiable action for C1. Sart's vote did not appear to be out of character, so I choose to vote for somebody else. The other living players without actions backed up by some evidence are Venture(almost certainly village), Elandera(probably used binoculars), Elkanah, Twibanu, and Joe.

Something I just noticed after rereading CadCom's claim that his roleblock was prevented by theft, we've gotten confirmation that the knife blocks any action, which should include stealing. @BrightnessRadiant, does that mean stealing someone's knife would not prevent a roleblock from going through, regardless of what time the two actions were sent in?

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Geema stepped out into the market once again, this time without a care in the world. After all, it was Christmas! Why should she care about something on this most wondrous of days. 

Not that Christmas was a day that was at all different from every other day. Some people quietly do their own thing, but the vast majority of society just kind of continued with life as normal. What was there to celebrate, after all? 

That didn't stop Geema from enjoying it though! As she walked through the stands, she felt a skip in her step she hadn't felt since last Christmas. Why be worried and depressed when you could be happy all the time! Who cares that there are traitors walking around killing at the drop of the hat. Surely they would wait a day, given that everyone could see how incredibly excited she was. 

Geema needed exactly 3 more words, but she went a little above and beyond and wrote 2 more sentences! Surely she oughta get some extra credit for this, it was really quite impressive of her to put all this work in even on Christmas.

***

I am not loving the Devotary lynch. I can see the reasoning for it, and he certainly wasn't in a good place for that lynch

Wow, ok. Just read through C1 again, and although I still feel a bit iffy about Twi, I'm having trouble imagining elim!Twi holding off on changing their vote until the very last minute in the cycle, for fear of it becoming solidified in the opposite direction. And wanting to get the vote solidified is a perfectly valid reason for swapping votes. I'm feeling a lot better about the Devotary lynch.

Devotary (just to be clear)

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Fwew, that took a lot more than I though it would, but here are three things I was able to put together. 

1. I went through the Day 1 interactions with Sart.

2. I cross referenced the three lists CadCom supplied with the lists of people who supported or denied the Sart Lynch

3. A vote Tally

1:

Spoiler

Thank you @Kidpen for your collection of posts by and about Sart. These proved invaluable. I might add only two other notable quotes:

Butt Ad Venture: "and now Sart's voting for me. Wow. I'm afraid I don't know what to say."

Elandera: "I don't like the lynches on any of the three currently with votes. Sart's sheep vote was most off, but I agree it was likely to draw too much attention for an elim move D1. In my time, I've seen more elims sit out D1 than sheep D1. 

Coda doesn't stick out as having done anything suspicious to me, so I'm not sure where that lynch is even coming from. 

And Venture seemed more like an effort to start lynch discussions, and not a real effort to lunch him. Like Coda, I don't see anything actually suspicious.

I'm out of time. I'll try to add more thoughts later, and hopefully a vote."

The first is probably NAI, but I thought I should include it just in case. The second makes me wary of Elandera. Looking over it again, Sart's vote near the end of the cycle also looks like distancing to me, because this was before he was saved by Devotary, Striker, and Twinabu and wasn't likely to gain any traction.

Sart never gave us an idea of who he trusted, but people he said he didn't trust were Venture, Elandera, and Striker.

 DeTess and Venture voted for Sart in C1. Twibanu had voted for Sart but withdrew the vote. 

Striker, Devotary and to some extent Twibanu defended Sart.

2:

Spoiler

Here are CadCom's lists

Spoiler
On 12/23/2019 at 2:51 PM, CadCom said:

Ok. So someone had previously made a list of those not around around rollover D1. Let me cross reference some lists

  1. So cross referencing these lists, we can remove Stick, because he's dead. 

Sart, Venture, Elan, Elkanah Devotary, Kidpen, and Twibanu have unconfirmed actions. Of that group, they are all still alive. 

CadCom, Elkanah, Kidpen,  Definitely missed Rollover, With Only Striker, Twibanu, and Sart  who definitely didn't miss rollover. 

CadCom, Stick, Kynedath, Kidpen, Devotary. voted for Tess. 

-------
CadCom is on 2 of those lists. 
Elkanah is on 2 of those lists
Kidpen is on 3 of those lists,  
Devotary is on 2 of those lists, but could possibly be on the third, though I believe he started the Coda lynch, so not the best possibility of being on list 3
Kynedath is only on 1 list,
Sart is only on 1 list,
Venture is only on 1 list
Elan is only on 1 list
Twibanu is only on 1 list, but also was on close to rollover. 

I think the most important people to focus discussion on would be those who are on at least 2 of those lists, as I would expect at least one elim is among those. 

I've run out of time right now, so I'll try to get to more things later.

 

Add to that The list of people who defended Sart: Striker, Devotary, Twibanu, and I'll add Elandera for the reasons above. 

Kidpen is on 3 lists,

Devotary is on 3 lists,

CadCom is on 2 lists,

I am on 2 lists,

Twinabu is on 2 lists and was on close to the end of the cycle,

Elandera is on 2 lists and may not have been on for the three hours preceding the end of the lynch,

Striker is only on one list, but placed the turning vote against Sart and should be included here.

I'll vote for Devotary given they saved Sart, Voted for DeTess, and have an unconfirmed action on C1.

3:

StrikerEZ: Twibanu,

Devotary: Elandera, Venture, Joe, Lemon, Elkanah, Kidpen

 

Hmm. That seems gross. Devotary for now.

I will return to post my thoughts on each living player individually, but it's late and I really need to get to bed.

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Nathan hated being alone. When he was alone, there was nothing to keep away the thoughts that chipped away at his sanity. Rather than sit alone, just letting his thoughts consume him, he went for a walk in the underground steel caverns of Newcago. 

He didn't choose a path to follow; he let his body choose that for him as he twirled a necklace around his fingers. It had a thin silver chain, with a simple stylized S on it. Even after all this time, he still couldn't understand why Mei had worn this necklace. Even despite hearing all the stories of the horrible things the Epics were doing in those first weeks, she'd still joined the cult of Epics. Of course, he hadn't known until he was dragging her corpse away from the Epic who had killed her and found the necklace no longer tucked inside her shirt, where she'd hidden it. 

Nathan stopped walking for a moment, the steel walls of the tunnels pressing in on him. He sat down against a wall, knuckles white as he clutched the stupid necklace in his hands. He made up his mind and resolved to do what he had come here for.

~

Okay, now that that's done, Devotary. After doing my reread of the thread and sleeping on the things I saw, I really think that Devotary's vote was a little odd. I mean, so was mine, but I'd already expressed support of Sart in some PMs before I decided to defend him against the lynch. Something about Devotary's post voting on Coda and some of her later explanations just feels off. 

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Thanks for  the vote count.

According to Elkanah, the vote count is now:

Striker(1): Twibanu,

Devotary(6): Elandera, Venture, Joe, Lemon, Kidpen, Striker

Umm, interesting...

Analysis to come, but I would still advocate switching to Striker instead. The fact that both Striker and Elandera voted for Devotary has me on edge.  Granted, I have no idea why elim!Striker voted for her.

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Apologies everyone. I'm scheduled for work earlier than usual and I won't have time to go through everything I missed on Christmas day. Cycle will have to remain open until tonight. It will end at 10:30 PM CST tonight. Again I'm sorry.

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1 hour ago, Twibanu said:

Thanks for  the vote count.

According to Elkanah, the vote count is now:

Striker(1): Twibanu,

Devotary(6): Elandera, Venture, Joe, Lemon, Kidpen, Striker

Umm, interesting...

Analysis to come, but I would still advocate switching to Striker instead. The fact that both Striker and Elandera voted for Devotary has me on edge.  Granted, I have no idea why elim!Striker voted for her.

Ok yeah this is a really weird lynch, but I'm not convinced it's weird cause Devotary is village. At this point, the teammates of elim!Devotary would face a lot of suspicion if they defend Devotary (not necessarily if they had done so closer to the beginning, like you) and later they flipped elim.

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3 hours ago, Twibanu said:

Thanks for  the vote count.

According to Elkanah, the vote count is now:

Striker(1): Twibanu,

Devotary(6): Elandera, Venture, Joe, Lemon, Kidpen, Striker

Umm, interesting...

That vote count is missing my vote from one of my posts on the last page. 

Here is a more correct vote count.

Striker(1): Twibanu,

Devotary(6): Elandera, Venture, Joe, Lemon, Kidpen, Striker

Joe(1): CadCom

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1 hour ago, Kidpen said:

Ok yeah this is a really weird lynch, but I'm not convinced it's weird cause Devotary is village. At this point, the teammates of elim!Devotary would face a lot of suspicion if they defend Devotary (not necessarily if they had done so closer to the beginning, like you) and later they flipped elim.

I have actually been pushing for the lynch of at least one of Striker/Devotary, with a preference towards Striker. My only problem with Devotary being an elim, is that each elim you lose, the game gets exponentially harder. It is really hard to win as an only elim as when actions are trackable (as most are this game) you have to choose between killing or having an alibi. I don't think there will be more than 3 elims, and Devotary has been sitting at 3-4 votes in the lead for a long time with everyone just sitting back and watching. I know people are distracted with... Other... SE stuff right now, but I don't think an elim!Devotary would just let herself get lynched without putting up some kind of fight.

I have to be careful with these pushes, as I have made this same argument in now all three cycles, however, I think I'm pretty safe on this one, as the vote has, again, been pretty decisive all cycle. Also, when we got close to when we thought rollover would be, some people should have realized I wasn't going to fight for Devotary and spoken up.

Also, I have been trying for the past hour to actually ISO people, and I just cant focus on it right now. I'm going to have to come back to it later and see if I can focus then.

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1 hour ago, Twibanu said:

I have actually been pushing for the lynch of at least one of Striker/Devotary, with a preference towards Striker. My only problem with Devotary being an elim, is that each elim you lose, the game gets exponentially harder. It is really hard to win as an only elim as when actions are trackable (as most are this game) you have to choose between killing or having an alibi. I don't think there will be more than 3 elims, and Devotary has been sitting at 3-4 votes in the lead for a long time with everyone just sitting back and watching. I know people are distracted with... Other... SE stuff right now, but I don't think an elim!Devotary would just let herself get lynched without putting up some kind of fight.

I have to be careful with these pushes, as I have made this same argument in now all three cycles, however, I think I'm pretty safe on this one, as the vote has, again, been pretty decisive all cycle. Also, when we got close to when we thought rollover would be, some people should have realized I wasn't going to fight for Devotary and spoken up.

Also, I have been trying for the past hour to actually ISO people, and I just cant focus on it right now. I'm going to have to come back to it later and see if I can focus then.

You know I'm kindof agreeing with you. There has been almost no substantial defence attempted to be mounted against Devotary, which makes it less and less likely that he is an Elim. Especially since nothing happened before the cycle was supposed to end originally. 

While I still don't feel good about Joe, I would be willing to at least switch for this cycle to Striker. 

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@Twibanu @CadCom I was actually thinking the same thing. I was kinda hoping my vote putting the Devotary lynch so far ahead would’ve brought out whoever her teammates were if she’s an elim to defend her. Assuming she’s an elim and there are only two elims left, it would’ve been devastating if she got lynched. At the same time, maybe she is an elim and the last elim is someone that no one’s even voiced suspicion of so far? So they’re thinking they can keep that going for the rest of the game and be the last one standing? I don’t think I’d take that risk if I were an elim facing 9-2 odds on only cycle 3 though. But maybe this person is pretty confident they could survive against 8-1 odds after elim!Devo gets lynched and a villager dies?

I really don’t like how little opposition the Devotary lynch has gotten, but don’t know what else to do. 

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There's one, at most two elims who would be around to defend an elim, and there are certainly that many people hesitating on the lynch. I'm not entirely sure who I'm going to vote for. My best lead is if it turns out that stealing doesn't prevent knife roleblocks, which would mean CadCom straight up lied about his C2 action. Other than that, I don't see why Striker expressing support of Sart in PMs before voting on Coda makes it less suspicious. 

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I have a general problem with the argument that elims will always have a teammate speak in support of them if they're being lynched. In a strong lynch like this, trying to avert it is actually likely to draw more attention, so teammates may find it better to just bus and be done with it, rather than stand out for someone who's likely to be lynched anyway. The other problem is that this argument has been used in every game for the last several games. There's always a hesitance to lynching someone with no allies. It may be the elims know someone is bound to make that argument - or they'll make it themselves - as a reason to be hesitant about the lynch and maybe draw people away. 

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3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Other than that, I don't see why Striker expressing support of Sart in PMs before voting on Coda makes it less suspicious.

Regardless, no one came forward to confirm he actually did that.

44 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I have a general problem with the argument that elims will always have a teammate speak in support of them if they're being lynched. In a strong lynch like this, trying to avert it is actually likely to draw more attention, so teammates may find it better to just bus and be done with it, rather than stand out for someone who's likely to be lynched anyway. The other problem is that this argument has been used in every game for the last several games. There's always a hesitance to lynching someone with no allies. It may be the elims know someone is bound to make that argument - or they'll make it themselves - as a reason to be hesitant about the lynch and maybe draw people away. 

While you are correct that elims wont always be online to save each other, Devotary has been in the lead for the lynch for over 55 hours now.

As of that post, the vote count was:
Striker(1): Twibanu
Devotary(2): Elandera, Venture

The next vote was in this post (I think):

Here CadCom votes on Joe. This takes momentum away from the Devotary lynch. Haven't done an ISO yet, but a Devotary/CadCom team wouldn't be outlandish...
This post happened ~3 hours after Venture's vote.

The votecount now was
Devotary(2): Elandera, Venture
Striker(1): Twibanu
Joe(1): CadCom

The next vote after CadCom's was by Joe here:

This vote happened ~24 hours after Venture or 21 hours after CadCom. This is a full day (no matter where you live) where you can see that all targets have lost momentum, and you have an opportunity to swing the lynch to your favor.
Joe votes on Devotary, putting her up by two. Joe and Devotary are obviously not teammates.

It is at this point where elims would likely hop on the elim!Devotary lynch... Let's look at who did that...
Lemelon, Elkanah (sort of), Kidpen, Striker (after subtly defending Devotary)

So... I don't necisarily have an issue with Devotary being the lynch target, however, I think Striker has a significantly higher chance of being an elim.

Perhaps both Striker and Devotary are elims, and they were hoping a villager would come to their defense. I think it would be wierd if they are both villagers, but that's technically possible too...

Anyways, sorry, I'm getting off track.

My point is, there was lots of time with little to no momentum on the Devotary lynch where she was only up by one, and still no one really tried to shift the lynch... With the exception of CadCom, but I do think he is village right now. If Devotary flips evil, I'll reconsider.

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At this point, i don't think Devotary is an elim, for reasons others have more eloquently stated. However, i do think we need to finish this lynch anyway, if just so we're not second guessing everything later. At this point, not lynching Devotary would just muddy the waters. It would be too difficult to tell why people left the lynch.

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Perhaps... Let's see how long we have first:

15 players, presumably 3, gives us a 12-3 with 3 villagers, 1 elim dead.

C3: 9-2 (-mislynch, -kill)
C4: 7-2 (-mislynch, -kill)
C5: 5-2 (-mislynch, -kill)
C6: 3-2 (MyLo)

So we have 2 mislynches after today... I'm fine with taking the chance on Devotary then. Devotary, if you are a villager, I'm really sorry.

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1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Apologies everyone. I'm scheduled for work earlier than usual and I won't have time to go through everything I missed on Christmas day. Cycle will have to remain open until tonight. It will end at 10:30 PM CST tonight. Again I'm sorry.

Thank goodness. I'll be able to do some real RP instead of throwing something together at the last minute.

Here are some thoughts on those of us who are still alive:

StrikerEZ: Aptly named the already suspicious

Suspicious for adamant defense of known eliminator Sart. Voted to tie and presumably save Sart Day one. Generally suspicious tone in his posts, although that is admittedly less an issue than other two. Verdict Probably elim

Kynedath: 

Has contributed a lot to the game. Is probably not on the same team as Twibanu unless they are both village. There have been a few times I thought they were elim, but also did nothing to stop Sart from getting lynched. I think if they were teammates, Kynedath would have tried harder to swing that lynch the other way. Verdict: Under review to slightly village.

Venture:

Pretty sure they are village. I had a good reason, but I can't remember right now what it was. It had to do with Sart being keen to lynch them. Verdict Probably village.

Elandara: 

In cycle one, last posted over three hours before turnover and if we go with the idea the elims had a player afk for turnover, she was gone before there was a chance of Coda being lynched. Also suggested opposed the lynch on Sart and Sart voted on her after it looked like she wouldn't be back before turnover and it wouldn't have killed her anyway.  Verdict probably elim

CadCom:

A lot of good comments so far. I've been operating under the assumption they are good, but I ought to do my due diligence and look harder to get actual evidence. They didn't show up on any of the four lists, but also created three of them. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I wrote this eight hours ago and got called away from my computer. I'm back, but I'll post this so it's out and then I can work on writing the rest of it for the next hour or so. 

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1 hour ago, Twibanu said:

While you are correct that elims wont always be online to save each other, Devotary has been in the lead for the lynch for over 55 hours now.

I'm not saying they're not online to defend, I'm saying they won't defend regardless. Look at the suspicion I have on me for stating once I didn't agree with the Sart lynch because of a sheep vote. Anyone who comes to the defense of someone who later flips elim is under immediate suspicion. Devotary's lynch may not have been set in stone, but it was pretty clear early on that one of Striker or Devotary would be the likely target this turn. The safer bet may just be distancing and/or bussing when the time comes. 

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Well, with my last act I will vote for CadCom just for fun. Lieutenant Mauve suffers a timeline-rending death.

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Clark reentered the black market carrying a soggy wet burlap sack. He tried not to meet eyes with anyone. If someone left the market for more than a day or two they were just presumed dead. If they came back though, they were presumed a traitor and ended up dead. Unfortunately, if you were too loud or quiet you pretty much ended up dead too. Everyone ended up dead eventually so it wasn't a big problem. Clark had gotten pretty good at being there just enough to be not dead. Sure he was beaten to death from time to time, but that built character. Today, he had another delivery for the doctor. A length of arm from someone who had been killed by a newer epic in newcago. Apparently this one could use insects and liked to have them crawl through people. Clark was sure there was some sciency reason the doc would want the leftovers, but wasn’t sure what a bunch of dead bugs could tell him about how to beat epics. As he passed through the market to the secret door to the clubroom, it looked like someone had done something to get attention. Attention was a bad idea. He poked his head in to see the execution and then went about his business.

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Cycle has ended. Rollover up when I can get through all that happened.

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Cycle 4

 

writeup in process...

 

__________________________________________________________________

Twibanu has been attacked and killed. They were a Loyal with no items.

Devotary has been lynched. They were a Loyal with 2 knife items.

Lynch results:

Spoiler

 

Striker(2): Twibanu, CadCom

Devotary(6): Elandera, Venture, Joe, Lemon, Kidpen, Striker

CadCom (1): Devotary

Cycle 4 has begun!...finally. This cycle will be shorter due to the delays. It will end on the 28th at 1PM CST.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. StrikerEZ - the already suspicious

2. Kynedath - Remy Constantine 

3. DeTess - the unnamed deity Loyal

4. Stick - Stick! Loyal

5. Sart - the one who sends greetings Traitor

6. Butt Venture - Charley Rosen

7. Elandera - character pending

8. CadCom - character pending jr

9. Lemonelon - a happy lemon

10. Elkanah - Clark Narrow (kid from the streets)

11.  Coda - Absodel (student of medicine) - Loyal

12. Devotary of Spontaneity - Lieutenant Muave (experienced sniper) Loyal

13. Kidpen - mustached gma

14. Twibanu - unnamed seeker of secrets Loyal

15. A Joe in the Bush - Doc Olny (a mad scientist)

Black Market:

Spoiler

Item

Description

   Cost

  Number   Available

Gun

One time use, may kill any player you target unless they're protected by the vest.

   10 points

        1

Bulletproof Vest

One time use, protects against any attack excluding the lynch (passive ability but if activated by an attack it will cancel out your other action if you took one).

    8 points

        2

Smoke Bomb 

You cannot be observed with Binoculars. Using this doesn’t consume your action.

   6 points

        5

Knife

Wounds a player of your choice, blocking their action for that cycle (may be used once per round).

   4 points

       9

Strongbox

Cannot be stolen. You can store one item in the Strongbox. That item cannot be stolen while in the  Strongbox.

   2 points

       19

let's hope everything is right this time : P

 

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Alright, I need to review things a little more closely before I make another vote. I am leaning right now toward Striker, but I was clearly wrong about Devotary and my suspicion of Striker is largely based on the same ideas. For now, I'll do a quick list of current players and gut reads. I should have some more time tomorrow morning to do a more expanded list.

Striker - Suspicious based on interactions with Sart
Kynedath - Still vaguely suspicious read, but has dropped significantly in activity. Probably busy.
Butt Ad Venture - Likely village, unless Sart's first vote was distancing.
CadCom - Neutral to elim. Need to look into him a bit more, especially with Devo's vote.
Lemonelon - Neutral. Seems to be successfully flying under the radar. Needs more investigation.
Elkanah - Same as Lemonelon, though has given some good read analysis. 
Kidpen - Same as Lemonelon.
A Joe in the Bush - Same as Lemonelon.

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Remy slammed the door behind him out of frustration. The situation was devolving and nothing he could write on his maps would solve it. He stormed over to his small desk and stared down the paper and ink angrily. Lines and notations, they seemed to be losing their meaning to him. He had been out looking at the stars, practicing astronomy and navigation without landmarks like he had been trained to do during his time at sea. Every line had to lead somewhere, but none of them ever did!

"Ben zut, je n'suis pas un detective!" Remy pushed aside all of his maps and slammed down a new piece of paper. He reached into his bag and pulled out an ink bottle and quill he had received for his birthday before epics started appearing. Setting them down on the cramped desk he began to carefully write. His caligraphy skills were rubbish, he was a sailor, not a poet. But he had once heard that Magellan used to practice calligraphy and so he set his mind to practicing. He wrote his thoughts, anything that came to his mind. His search for the traitors dominated his mind at first but then began to fade away into thoughts of the tunnels and the steel depths of Newcago. Even something as trivial as the noodle bowl he had for lunch two days ago lingered in his mind and made its way onto the sixth piece of paper that had become covered in horrible cursive writing.


Yes, Elandera is right, I have been very busy with the holidays. I regret not being on during the final hours of the last cycle, but it doesn't seem like too much happened anyways.

I'm going to start off strong by voting for Elandera @Elandera for reasons that I have stated the previous cycle (in regards to their interactions with Sart cycle 1) as well as the following post they made:

Quote

I have a general problem with the argument that elims will always have a teammate speak in support of them if they're being lynched. In a strong lynch like this, trying to avert it is actually likely to draw more attention, so teammates may find it better to just bus and be done with it, rather than stand out for someone who's likely to be lynched anyway. The other problem is that this argument has been used in every game for the last several games. There's always a hesitance to lynching someone with no allies. It may be the elims know someone is bound to make that argument - or they'll make it themselves - as a reason to be hesitant about the lynch and maybe draw people away. 

This looks to me like they were trying to quell the suspicions that others had about the lack of controversy around the devotary lynch. People were beginning to smell something fishy going on and they countered that to keep the momentum on the devotary lynch going.

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8 hours ago, Kynedath said:

Yes, Elandera is right, I have been very busy with the holidays. I regret not being on during the final hours of the last cycle, but it doesn't seem like too much happened anyways.

 

I'm going to start off strong by voting for Elandera @Elandera for reasons that I have stated the previous cycle (in regards to their interactions with Sart cycle 1) as well as the following post they made:

(Quotes post)

This looks to me like they were trying to quell the suspicions that others had about the lack of controversy around the devotary lynch. People were beginning to smell something fishy going on and they countered that to keep the momentum on the devotary lynch going.

I don't really agree with the last argument about the post. To me it seems like Elandera doesn't want us to fall into a rut that Elims will be able to use to their advantage in current or future games. I haven't had as much time to really look into this game the last couple days between calls at work, but I'll try to make time later on today to do a more in depth analysis. 

But I'm willing to pursue some of the other interests. Twibanu was another suspicion I had that turned out to be false as well, so I may have to start all over with who I'm suspicious of. 

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